Indiana Governor- Race of the Day

 92 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Gone are the days when Indiana was considered a swing-state. It has moved strongly towards Republicans over the past 15 years. However, there are enough complexities in regards to this year's open race for Governor that it might at least warrant some attention.

Current Governor Eric Holcomb is term-limited. His rise to the top of state government came as a bit of a whirl eight years ago. He had recently taken over as an appointed replacement for Lt. Governor and was running on a ticket with incumbent Mike Pence in 2016, in a race that some thought could be close. Then, Donald Trump chose Pence to be his running-mate, and Holcomb was chosen to move up to run for Governor. He won that race with some breathing room and then was easily reelected in 2020. In that election, Libertarian Donald Rainwater, a software engineer, and frequent candidate somehow took 11 percent of the vote in a third place finish. This year, Rainwater will again be representing his minor party in this race, and could act in theory as a spoiler. In eight years in office, Holcomb has governed as a fairly mainstream Republican, and has not been a MAGA favorite. Some in the party had wanted him to run for U.S. Senate this year, but perhaps with the prospect of a bruising primary, he took a pass.

That Senate seat is open because freshman Republican Mike Braun fulfilled a long-standing pledge to run for Governor in 2024, instead of seeking reelection. In 2018, Braun, a wealthy businessman, who was serving in the state legislature, came from somewhat out of nowhere to defeat two better known Congressmen, who were seeking the Senate nomination, and whom had some sort of personal rivalry dating back to their college days. The political lean of Indiana had been become so favorable to Republicans, that Braun ousted an freshman Democrat Senator, considered somewhat of a fluke winner in 2012,  by six points. Braun was widely recognized during this campaign for eschewing wearing a tie and jacket whenever possible and playing up his roots in manufacturing and farming.

During his six years in the Senate, Braun has not made many headlines, but has positioned himself as a firm ally of Donald Trump. He sided with Trump on protesting the results of the 2020 Presidential election and announced plans to object to electoral votes, before changing his mind the night of the January 6th attacks on the Capitol. Still, Trump endorsed Braun for Governor, which made him the early frontrunner in what would become a crowded primary.

 

In early May, Braun defeated five other Republicans, with about 40 percent of the primary vote. Finishing in second place with 22 percent was Suzanne Crouch, the sitting Lt. Governor, who had much support from the party establishment in Indiana. Some members of the pre-MAGA establishment also backed Brad Chambers, a former State Secretary of Commerce, who took nearly 18 percent. The rest of the vote was divided up between more vocal social conservatives or ardent right-wingers, two of them African-American. One of those was last place finisher Curtis Hill, who was considered a rising star when he became Attorney General in 2016. After allegations of sexual misconduct though against the married Hill, a Republican convention denied him renomination in 2020, He finished at just under 5 percent in the Gubernatorial primary.

While a case could be made that defeated candidates Crouch or Chambers would be even stronger favorites in a general election, Braun still had the edge leading into the fall. One of the first orders of business for Gubernatorial nominees is to pick their Lt. Governor running-mate and have the state party convention formally nominate that person. Usually, that is a foregone conclusion and Braun tapped State Representative Julie McGuire for the post. However, an active campaign for Lt. Governor was already being waged by Micah Beckworth, an Evangelical pastor, who had been a library trustee in suburban Indianapolis. In the 2020 Gubernatorial election, Beckworth had supported the Libertarian Rainwater. Concern leading into the state convention was enough, that Donald Trump posted an endorsement of McGuire, but it did not matter. The conservative attendees of the convention, which numbered less than two thousand total, chose Beckwith. Suddenly, Braun was saddled with a controversial running-mate he did not want. The website of Gubernatorial nominee Braun seems to go to some lengths to avoid even mentioning Beckwith. Some feel that Beckwith holds such far-right views, that he could potentially cost Braun the Governorship. It remains to be seen though how many people are willing to vote based on who might become Lt. Governor.

Democrats need a credible candidate to take advantage of this situation and they appear to have one. The party had settled on Jennifer McCormick early on and a primary was not needed. McCormick has won statewide office before, but did so as a Republican. A former teacher and principal, she had knocked off the incumbent Democrat for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2016,. It turns out though, that she would be the last person ever elected to that position in the state, as the head of state education went on to become an appointed Cabinet position under the Governor. In 2021, after leaving office, she announced she had become a Democrat, citing disagreements with her former party. Many viewed this as a precursor for McCormick seeking high office in her new party and that is indeed what happened.

There was also a bit of controversy over McCormick's Lt. Governor selection process, but ultimately, Democrats, unlike their counterparts, agreed to go along with their candidate's wishes. She picked Terry Goodin, who oversaw Indiana as part of a federal agency within the United States Department of Agriculture. Before that, he had been the Minority Leader in the Indiana State House, during a 20 year career in the legislature. He lasted as leader for only two years before being replaced by party members.There may have been some concerns that he was not sufficiently liberal enough on matters like same-sex marriage, gun control, and abortion. This is also said to have scuttled his chances to have been picked to be the Lt. Governor candidate in 2020. McCormick, herself a former Republican, went ahead with picking Goodin though, even as some on the party's left expressed disapproval. Goodin easily won the convention vote and has come out to basically apologize for some of his past votes and views. Just by picking Goodin though, McCormick seems to be making a play for center-right or centrist votes.

Polling in the Hoosier State is typically sparse, perhaps related to a somewhat unique law there regarding robocalls. It could be that Indiana has become so red, especially during a Presidential election year, that Braun can with this race without too much worry. However, the Democrats have a nominee that might appeal to women and upscale voters in the suburbs who feel the GOP has moved too far to the right. It is definitely true that Braun's running-mate is not going to win him any votes he might not already have, and in fact may lose him votes. Also, it is somewhat up in the air if the Libertarian, who received double digits in his last race could come anywhere close to that again, and which candidate he might hurt the most.

Right now, it is hard to argue that Braun should be considered anything other than the favorite in Indiana, but this race seems intriguing.

Governor races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Likely)

1 R (1 Leans)

Total with predicted thus far:

21 Democrats (1 Likely, 20 Holdover)

20 Republicans (1 Leans, 19 Holdover)