White House Race- June 1, 2024

Who had a worse week? The Chicago Cubs or Donald Trump?

There are still over 100 games to play for the franchise that won the 2016 World Series, but the winner of the 2016 Presidential election has over 100 days to reclaim his office despite now being a 34 time convicted felon.

I have very mixed and complex feelings about this particular situation regarding the "crazy orange felon." First, I want to note that unlike the O.J.Simpson verdict and many other notable ones in my lifetime, I did not get to consume this news live. On Thursday afternoon, I was at a doctors' appointment and did not even know a verdict had been reached until I got out. I was somewhat surprised that it was a conviction on each and every count. Despite my past statements that an acquittal was very possible or a hung jury was probable, it did seem that conventional wisdom was leading to a conviction at the end and Trump himself was saying that "even Mother Teresa could not beat these charges."

Again, this is complex for me. For one thing, Trump has pending charges and trials that I think are far more serious and consequential and for which I think he is likely guilty. I also have no doubt that Donald Trump is a person who has broken multiple laws, before, during, and after his time in the Oval Office. If unchecked, he will continue to break laws. So, I feel no sympathy for him personally or the comeuppance he was given by a Manhattan jury.

I also completely disagree with the political talking point that the "Biden Administration" was in anyway behind this case and I see no real case that can be made that Judge Juan Merchan, whether he is a Democrat or not, was somehow "unfair" to the defendant. I also think the jury likely did its job, the way they were entrusted to do it in regards to the specific evidence and the specific laws that were called to render a judgment on. So, I really do not have a problem in believing that Donald Trump was guilty of the crimes for which he was convicted. I just am still confused why this was a state case and not a federal case. This cannot really be seen as somewhat of a fraud perpetuated on New York voters in 2016, considering the fact that those same voters soundly rejected Trump regardless of knowing about his creepy encounter with Stormy Daniels.

We should be honest though. This was largely political.While the federal government (under Biden officially) and the previous Manhattan DA decided not to prosecute, the liberal Democrat Alvin Bragg did, a reversal of sorts, after some political pressure to "get Trump." So, yes, local New York City Democrats decided to go after Trump, in a way that they would probably not go after another businessman. Much of that had to do with trying to keep him out of the White House, although I still suspect that Bragg and many others wanted the Republican Party to renominate him, thinking this indictment could help make that happen, but then he would be easy pickings for the Democrats. The first part definitely happened, but I do not think Democrats were counting on Trump to be as competitive in the general election as he is. To this day, he is still leading Biden in most national and key state polls and that should worry Democrats day and night (and I believe they are very worried.) If Trump does win in November, Bragg will be a big reason why. For now though, it is good news for Democrats that Trump cannot run on having been acquitted. That would have been even worse for them politically, at least in the short-term.

Those who have raised legitimate questions about the "fairness" of the original indictment have some fair points, and I say that as a person who despises Trump and think he is very much a criminal. We all know what they say karma is and Trump is getting his thanks to individuals such as Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, and David Pecker. Somehow though, his personal and private business are detracting from the crimes he likely committed against the United States as someone who was or who had been President in regards to classified documents and the peaceful transfer of power.

 

Again, Donald Trump asked for this. He has been a brazen, showboating, arrogant SOB for decades. A lot of people like that about him and thus it helped make him very rich and famous and ultimately one of the most consequential political figures of our time. Others hate him for it, as they very much should. All of it put a giant target on his back. The man who loved the chants of "lock her up" in 2016 in regards to his ethically challenged opponent then, and who has consistently questioned the ethics, motivation, personality and legality of just about anybody who criticizes him in any way has earned a ton of enemies. Anybody who has been as aggressive and confrontational as Trump has been for decades should either be as pure as the driven snow or expect his enemies to come for him. Trump has been far from pure and whether a "fair" case or not, they got him criminally on this one (after he has already been on the losing end of much civil action, especially lately.) Yes, politicians of all stripes may now be emboldened to go after political enemies in such a way, and that is not a great thing. However, if the target does not actually commit crimes, they will probably be ok in our justice system. Trump was not such a person. He likely has far more coming to him, but whether he ever winds up "locked up" (likely from other cases) will depend on if he wins or loses this year's Presidential election.

Currently, Trump's genuine ardent defenders are apocalyptic about this turn of events and his political hostages up and down the Republican Party are attempting to act similarly outraged. Only a few notable Republicans are willing to call for respecting the rule of law and the justice system and they are then roundly denounced for doing so. To be a Republican these days, with any hope of viability, means you must be loyal to Trump at all costs and for any reason. By the same token being a Democrat (not even getting into issues related to the flaws and weaknesses of Biden) means there can be no nuance in looking at anything regarding Trump. For now, any Republican who wants to maybe be Vice President or at least a losing VP nominee, is falling all over themselves to defend Trump and call the United States a "Banana Republic" a "fascist" country, and calling on New York's Democrat Governor to pardon him, That is at least among those who are not stupid or dishonest enough to believe Biden could do that for this conviction. Speaker Mike Johnson is calling on the U.S. Supreme Court to somehow bypass the normal appellate process and let Trump off the hook.. I miss the Republican Party that liked being being tough on criminals.

 

The thought occurred to me this week that this November will be the sixth opportunity I have to take a ballot and vote for someone other than Donald Trump in a race he was running. That seems like a lot. It will only tie him though with the six times I voted against Barack Obama for office, in the previous cycles before Trump. This is counting primaries and general elections regardless of which primary I voted in.  Off the top of my head, I think my personal record would be nine votes against Pat Quinn, who going back to even before I was old enough to vote, started losing elections for just about every statewide office in Illinois. (Ok, the actual most votes not for is probably Jesse White, the longtime Illinois Secretary of State, who never lost an election. I never disliked him though.)

The former President is due to be sentenced on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention. The entire situation is still even hard to fathom. I do not think he will be in a jail cell or even under home confinement when that gavel comes down in Milwaukee, but one cannot completely rule out the possibility. Some on the right want voters to believe that Trump will be locked up as part of "election interference." The bigger issue may be the ongoing gag order and whatever crazy stuff Trump may say over the next several weeks.

 

Trump will already have some of his rights taken away as a convicted felon now. There is some confusion over whether or not he will actually be allowed to vote for himself in Florida this election. With sentencing pending, he is I assume not free to leave the country, although I will say once again, that he should be encouraged to flee America. It would be the best possible solution.

We continue to march towards the general election, which will almost certainly be won by either Donald Trump or Joe Biden, much to the outrage of of half the country, and dread of many others, even if they will wind up voting for the winner, just to stop the loser from winning. The other options have their own problems. Independents Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West and Jill Stein (assuming she wins the Green Party nomination) and Constitution Party nominee Randall Terry, who has long been a leader in the somewhat militant wing of the Pro-Life movement. 

To join them now is Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver, who emerged this past weekend after a lengthy balloting process and an unruly national party convention. What else could be expected from a party who had the official slogan "Become Ungovernable." Oliver emerged though, and the 38 year old openly gay Georgia activist can probably be considered one of the more mainstream Libertarians. That does not mean his views are normal. I talked last week about how Trump was booed at the confab when asking the delegates to cast votes for him. Only six of them bothered to write his name in, and that was only five more than his ex-conquest Stormy Daniels received. You have to give some level of respect to the Libertarian Party though, they will have done what the once Grand Old Party refuses to do and reject Donald Trump.

All of us have to accept the reality though that Trump has a very real chance of winning this November and these particular convictions are unlikely to move the needle much one way or another. If anything though, if he is out of the courtroom more now and free to campaign, he may just say some things that will remind low-info Americans about just how horrible he is. Regardless,Trump is raising a ton of money for being a "political prisoner" and many think this will all backfire on Democrats. We will have to see. Nothing about Campaign 2024 is normal.