American Idol- Top 14

About 24 hours ago, I watched a recording of Monday's American Idol episode. These particular ones are always pretty interesting when we learn who made the Finals via the American vote and who the "Supreme Court" of American Idol intervened on behalf of to make wildcard finalists. There is always a lot of politics involved in that and it is fun to analyze. However, after a long day yesterday, I did not want to do a whole live-blog thing, so I made my rankings and am doing the write up now by memory. There are probably many points that will be left out.

1. Ava Maybee- "Cuz I Love You"

I will point out where I had each contestant ranked among the 20 the previous evening. Ava had taken first place for me on a very competitive night and I was pretty sure she would be voted in.

This was another impressive performance. Ava has been billed as sort of a pop/rock singer but has shown eclectic musical (and style) taste on stage. For this performance, she took on Lizzo and was impressive, both singing and in a rap-like breakdown section. 

2. Christian Guardino- "Creep"

On Easter Sunday, Christian was shown singing the atheist anthem "Imagine" which then was framed as some sort of religious experience for all involved. I had him ranked 10th, so he deserved to make it and I little doubt he would. When he got the good news, he said "Thank You Jesus" at least twice.

This was an interesting song choice as Radiohead is probably not really up Christian's alley, but he did put a lot of feeling into it and even if he goes slightly over at points, he  was able to once again show off some impressive vocal range.

3. Cameron Whitcomb- "If It Hadn't Been For Love"

While I thought he was improved vocally on Sunday, I could not put him any higher than 16th. Despite his crazy antics, I did not think he would get enough votes. Indeed, he was the first to have to "sing for his life."

He took this performance even more seriously and focused on delivering the lyrics instead of doing backflips and jigs, but I think he sounded a bit hesitant and stuck in the same sort of raspy tone. I believe he also plays guitar. This might have been a good song for him to do that on.

4. Allegra Miles- "Tainted"

I was pleasantly impressed by Allegra on Sunday, but the strength of the others only got her to 18th in my rankings. I thought she would fall short but it was clear the judges seem to have a thing for her.

For this attempt at winning a wild-card slot, she sang an original song. It might have been the one she first auditioned with. A bunch of the contestants did that last night. I cannot say I remember much about the song but thought she sounded nice and very "current" for the music business. She just has a more stylized folk-like voice than some of the other females who can belt like crazy.

5.  Lady K- "Bust Your Windows"

After not liking what she did in Hawai'i and thinking she might be in trouble, I had her ranked third on Sunday, and thought she would be voted in. That is what happened.

K continued her theme of singing about vandalizing the vehicle of a cheating ex with this tune. She was once again in good voice. There is something a bit rough around the edges about her vocals but that might help her get the point across.

6. HunterGirl- "Vice"

Nobody was picking any oldies on Monday for their song selections apparently. I had her ranked eighth and correctly predicted she would make the Top 10.

I do not know this Miranda Lambert song (which was thankfully not about Kamala Harris) and I am not a country fan, but I have to say that I was very impressed by her vocals. She stays on key and knows how to tell a story with her voice. One can easily picture her as someone who could be on country radio or on one of the billion County Music Award shows my mother likes to DVR.

7. Katyrah Love- "Through The Fire"

I had ranked her fourth but had the feeling that she would not get enough votes to advance. From the beginning of the season, I have been impressed by her Whitney Houston/Fantasia hybrid performance package, but perhaps that era has been gone for several years now.

It is risky to sing this Chaka Khan song on Idol. I think Katyrah seemed a bit deflated in the moment but still pulled off a strong performance. She would have to be heavily considered for a wild-card, right?

8. Cadence Baker- "I'm Your Baby Tonight"

This is the song she put her own spin on during her audition and I immediately thought she would be a lock for the Top 10. Whether it is missing her father playing guitar for her or whatever reason, she has failed to live up to expectations on the live stage. I had her ranked 11th on Sunday, which just put her out of the running for me.

Out of all the contestants, Seacrest probably faked her out the most by letting her think she had made it before telling she had to sing to impress the judges.Clearly, she is very talented, but once again just seemed a bit off. I liked her rendition of this Whitney Houston song, but parts of it were a bit shouty.

9. Dan Marshall- "Stuck On You"

This was the first surprise for me. I had his Garth Brooks performance ranked 20 out of 20 and did not think he would be around for the next round but the country fans must have been voting because Dan made it through.

On Monday, he put a country spin on a Lionel Richie song (as if Lionel would say anything negative if it were horrible) and lo and behold I like what he did with it. To me, this was easily his best performance. Maybe Dan should consider not being a pure country singer.

10. Leah Marlene- "Wisher To The Well"

On Sunday, her strong take on a ballad was perhaps the biggest surprise of the night for me. I had her ranked second and predicted she would advance on the strength of that. 

Previously, I had thought she was too quirky musically for my taste. Tonight, the guitar was back and she did an original song and once again I did not like it that much. Parts of it towards the end were respect worthy but I remember wanting it to be over.

11. Nicolina- "She Used To Be Mine"

I thought she was great as usual on Sunday but seemed a bit lower energy than usual so I had her as low as fifth on my list. I did think she would make it as one of the Top Ten even if the Canadian vote was being suppressed.

She slayed this song in her initial audition and was crazy good last night. Nicolina's voice is worthy of a hundred compliments for this performance, even as she got a bit emotional towards the very end. Also, whether she is already losing weight or not, the Idol production crew deserves an Emmy for the transformation they have provided to her via hair, makeup, and wardrobe. Nicolina looked and sounded like someone singing an Idol coronation song last night.

12. Sage- "Brown Eyed Lover"

On this season, Sage has always sort of felt like an afterthought amid all the other female singers of one or two names. I had her ranked 14th and correctly predicted she would not make it. I think she knew as much as well.

I remember thinking she started off very shaky on this song and then picked up some steam towards the end but it seemed like it would be too little too late.

13. Jay- "Believer"

Idol has been hyping Jay since the get-go and I thought he was impressive enough on Sunday to be in seventh place. I thought he would make the Top 10, but he did not. This has to raise questions about if African-Americans have tuned out American Idol this season. Is it because he sang too early on a three hour show? That theory would be somewhat disproven when the contestant who sang first would make the Top 10.

It might have seemed like a risk for Jay to sing a fast paced Imagine Dragons song but I thought he did an impressive job under this circumstance and showed his vocal versatility. He really has an impressive range. Whatever judge commented on his all but conceded that he would be one of the wildcards selected.

14. Noah Thompson- "Cover Me Up" 

Last night was teen father Noah's 20th birthday, as he took the stage as a member of the Top 20 on Idol's 20th season. I was impressed by his previous performance and had him ranked ninth and expected him to make the Finals.

Of course he did, but I did not like this performance as much. It is all pretty odd. I like how Noah sounds when he puts a spin on Rihanna or Harry Styles, but when he sings a pure country song, being the want to be country artist he is, I find him a bit hard to understand and somewhat boring. He comes across as sincere and genuine though singing country at least.

15. Jacob Moran- "Rise"

I had him ranked sixth from Sunday. Based on that, he deserves to advance, but I was pretty sure he would not have the votes. That would prove to be the case.

For this performance, he reprised his audition song by none other than Katy Perry.Once again, I was impressed by his voice and especially the top of his range but it seemed like the writing was on the wall that he would not be long for the show, even if he made it as a wildcard. At least he got a good deal further than he did a few years ago.

16. Elli Rowe- "All I Want"

Elli has a very nice pleasant voice and seems like a sweet, normal person. That might make her be lost in the shuffle this season though. I had her ranked 12th and did not think she would make it.

Singing for a wildcard slot, she did another ballad and once again sounded pleasant but lacking in the kind of vocal prowess needed to make a huge impression. Lionel Richie messed up and said it would be "up to America" when America had already voted. In other words, have a safe trip home Elli.

17. Emyrson Flora- "Love In The Dark"

She had to sing first on Sunday's marathon show. I had her ranked 15th and was pretty sure she had no shot to advance. It was a surprise to me though that she get out the vote. She seemed somewhat non-surprised however. Going first did not hurt her for whatever reason.

I do not remember every detail of this performance but thought she sounded good on this Adele song. Apparently, others are having an easier time remembering her than I am.

18. Mike Parker- "Bed On Fire"

I thought he picked the wrong night to have an average performance on Sunday and I had him ranked 19th. Despite being highly touted up to this point, I was correct that he would not get enough votes.

Singing for a chance to advance, Mike put an intense take on a country song that I thought was fairly decent but also lacking something that many others seemed to be bringing to the stage.

So, then we were at the point where only Fritz and Tristen were left. I had thought they both did not deserve to make the Top 10 based on Sunday, where I had Fritz 17th and Tristen 13th but that they both would. The math meant that only one would have gotten the votes however. It was pretty obvious it would be Fritz who is probably pulling in among the highest totals.

19.  Fritz Hager- "Golden"

The judges loved it. I am sure the kids loved it. People who have been digging Fritz from the get go dug it, but I did not. It is not that I think he is a horrible singer or a dislikable person or anything like that, I just do not like his voice on these kind of songs. I will be somewhat alone with that view among viewers under 50, but the seniors will get me.

20. Tristen Gressett- "Are You Going To Go My Way"

So, the Alabama mama's boy did not get the votes after all. That surprised me. I knew he was polarizing but maybe he is more polarizing than I realized.

For this, he strapped on an electric guitar and gave a rocking performance of a Lenny Kravitz song. No, the vocals were not perfect, but he is entertaining. There is still a Constantine Maroulis meets Adam Lambert vibe to his whole stage persona. Since there is nobody else remotely like him this season, I felt like future episodes would be lacking without him. He got the crowd pumped and had a bit of a "moment" with this final performance of the evening, but I remember last year when the ubiquitous  Graham DeFranco had a similar type performance in the same slot and he was passed over.

So,before getting to my rankings for Monday, let's look at my Sunday predictions:

Who should have advanced: Ava Maybee,  Leah Marlene, Lady K, Katyrah Love, Nicolina, Jacob Moran, Jay, HunterGirl, Noah Thompson, Christian Guardino

Who I predicted would advance: Ava Maybee, Leah Marlene,  Lady K, Nicolina, Jay, HunterGirl, Noah Thompson, Christian Guardino, Tristen Gressett, Fritz Hager

 

Who did get voted in: Ava Maybee, Leah Marlene, Lady K, Nicolina, HunterGirl, Noah Thompson, Christian Guardino, Emyrson Flora, Fritz Hager, Dan Marshall

Out of these ten, seven deserved to make it and three did not. I correctly predicted eight of the ten.

 

Monday rankings of all performances because if the "coast to coast" voting starts at the beginning of Sunday, people may be voting based on these performances.

 

 

20. Fritz Hager (safe)

19. Cameron Whitcomb

18. Leah Marlene (safe)

17. Sage

16. Noah Thompson (safe)

15. Elli Rowe

14. Allegra Miles

13. Mike Parker

12. Cadence Baker

11 Dan Marshall (safe)

10 Christian Guardino (safe)

9 Jacob Moran

8 Tristen Gressett

7. Lady K (safe)

6 Emyrson Flora (safe)

5 Katyrah Love

4 Jay

3 HunterGirl (safe)

2 Ava Maybee (safe)

1 Nicolina (safe)

 

Who should have been the four wildcard selections: Jay, Katyrah Love, Tristen Gressett, Jacob Moran

 

Next, the fun part was thinking during the final break (I had begun thinking far earlier in the show) what the judges/producers would do.

There is clearly an issue of the final group being so heavily white. Of these 14, there 11 white kids and three black kids with no other racial minority group represented.

Only the biracial Lady K was voted in. Clearly, they would have to pick at least two of the remaining African Americans. They should have done so with Jay and Katyrah.

Well, Jay is a lock here. I also felt like Allegra was going to be picked, despite the fact that she is very much the same sort of singer as Emyrson, and Emyrson is better. Would they be able to say goodbye to Cadence though? What about Mike? I had little hope for Jacob but was hoping that Tristen would not fall victim to some other machination. 

Clearly, it was already over for Cameron, Sage, and Elli

Who I predicted would be picked as the four wildcard selections: Jay, Katyrah Love, Tristen Gressett, Allegra Miles

Who was selected: Jay, Tristen Gressett, Mike Parker, Allegra Miles

So, they got two out of the four right and I correctly predicted three out of the four.

Cadence being bounced so early would have been a surprise during Hollywood Week (and we can assume perhaps that Kenedi Anderson would have been in the Top 10 if she had not withdrawn.)

In theory Jacob deserved better, but the former nurse's weight loss story was just not interesting enough I suppose.

So, basically they picked Mike over Katyrah, which I feel was the wrong move. Katyrah has all sorts of potential in my mind, but Lady K is a similar type of singer perhaps and Nicolina may be the true diva of 2022.

In picking Mike though, they did at least get a third African-American into the Final 14 and also have a 7-7 gender split. Do they really need three male country singers though? The fourth country singer is HunterGirl (no gender explanation necessary) and she may be a contender to win it all. I do not see Mike lasting very long. Allegra might not either (but at least more than the 24 hour tablet.)

Looking ahead to the season, I can already tell that Nicolina and Ava are likely to be my favorites week in and week out. I hope they are contenders to take the title and I suppose HunterGirl has grown a bit on me as well. I expect Jay, Lady K, and Tristen to at least be entertaining every week. Most likely, I will also probably like Emyrson more than Leah.

All things considered though, the two front-runners to win it all may very well be Noah and ughh..Fritz.