Saturday, October 17, 2026

Gubernational Recap and Updates

17 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Likely Republican
Alaska- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D)
Arizona- Likely Democrat (change from Leans D)
Arkansas- Likely Republican (change from Safe R) 
California- Likely Democrat
Colorado- Safe Democrat
Connecticut- Likely Democrat
Florida- Leans Republican (change from Tossup R)
Georgia- Tossup (R)
Hawai'i-  Safe Democrat
Idaho- Likely Republican (change from Safe R)
Illinois- Safe Democrat (change from Likely D) 
Iowa- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D) 
Kansas- Leans Republican
Maine-  Likely Democrat (change from Leans D)
Maryland- Safe Democrat
Massachusetts- Likely Democrat
Michigan- Leans Democrat
Minnesota- Likely Democrat  
Nebraska- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R) 
Nevada- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R)
New Hampshire- Leans Republican
New Mexico- Leans Democrat
New York- Likely Democrat
Ohio- Tossup (D)
Oklahoma- Leans Republican (change from Likely R) 
Oregon- Leans Democrat
Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat
Rhode Island- Likely Democrat
South Carolina- Likely Republican
South Dakota- Likely Republican
Tennessee- Leans Republican (change from Likely R) 
Texas- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R) 
Vermont- Leans Republican
Wisconsin- Leans Democrat
Wyoming- Safe Republican 
 
Total with predictions:

26 D (6 holdover, 4 Safe,  9 Likely, 6 Leans, 1 Tossup)
24 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe,  5 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)
 
Democrat net gain of 2