Florida U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 87 Days Until Election Day

Florida U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Democrats have several opportunities to make pickups in the U.S. Senate this year. Many feel that Florida will be one of them, while others think the recent Republican history of the state might make such a prospect "fool's gold" and that a serious effort could be resources wasted that would be better spent elsewhere. We will probably have a better idea after the August 18 primary and the official confirmation of a nominee for Democrats who might have the most appeal to those outside the party. For now, this is a lower tier race for the DSCC than other states on the map where pickups could occur and a couple where the party is defending.

 

The Sunshine State is holding a special Senate election. The winner will have to face the voters again in 2028. This race is to fill the last two years of the term won in 2022 by Republican Marco Rubio. When the newly elected Donald Trump selected his former 2016 rival turned eventual lapdog Rubio to be Secretary of State, that left it open for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to pick a replacement.Some wondered if the lame duck DeSantis might want the job for himself, but such a self-appointment would not have gone over well. There was also speculation as to if DeSantis was really free to pick whomever he wanted or if Trump was going to dictate the selection. Talk emerged that Lara Trump, the daughter in law of the President, and serving at the time as co-chair of the Republican National Committee might be named to serve the state where so many members of the Trump family now lived. She was also talked about as a candidate in her native North Carolina. Ultimately, DeSantis picked Ashley Moody, the state's Attorney General. This also allowed the Governor to name his own Attorney General in the state.

 

Moody came from a prominent legal family in Florida, although they were thought of as Democrats. In 1998, when she was beginning her own career, she switched parties and joined the ascendant Florida GOP. In 2006, she was elected as a judge in Hillsborough County and served there until winning the first of two terms as Attorney General in 2018. While she had strong ties to the establishment wing of the Republican Party, in office she conduced herself in a way that would have been considered very pleasing to the wishes of Trump and has definitely followed suit during her time thus far in the Senate. She is facing some little known primary opponents in this month's contest but Moody will prevail there.

 

As is often the case with an least sorta open race, many Democrats in Florida considered running for Senate, but few followed through. A couple entrants got out of the race to pursue more winnable offices or in deference to a somewhat surprise candidate who was guaranteed to raise the most money. That person would be Alex Vindman, a retired Army Lt. Colonel who served on the staff of the National Security Council during Trump's first term. From that post at the White House, he received national attention for being the "whistleblower" of Trump's attempts to shake down President Volodymyr Zelensyy of Ukraine, the country where Vindman had been born, in regards to them investigating the Biden Family in advance of the 2020 elections. These revelations would lead to Trump's first Impeachment trial. In this White House job, Alex Vindman happened to work with his twin brother Eugene Vindman and both Iraq War veterans were involved in exposing what Trump claimed was a "perfect phone call" though Alex's role was more significant.  In 2024, Eugene Vindman won a highly competitive election for an open U.S. House seat in Virginia as a Democrat.

 

The brothers, came with their widowed father and older brother as young children to the U.S. from what was then the Soviet Union in 1979 and settled in New York City. They even appeared together as kids in a Ken Burns documentary about the Statue of Liberty and what it meant to them to be Americans. Considering their refugee background and distinguished service in uniform, they have truly symbolized the American Dream and I personally am a fan of them for the courage it took to speak up when they saw wrongdoing at the White House. Florida is a state with a large Jewish population, including many who had once lived in New York, but Alex Vindman would become a somewhat rare Jewish nominee for the U.S. Senate in the state.

 

Like Florida's likely Democrat nominee for Governor who was once a Republican, Vindman comes from a background of not having any sort of record within the party. He (and his brother) appears to be a visible Democrat solely because of his part as a whistleblower against Trump. He has one primary opponent and that is someone with a name associated with Republicans, but definitely further to the left. State Representative Angie Nixon, an African-American labor organizer. For a variety of reasons, many progressives in Florida and beyond have a clear preference for Nixon over Vindman and without much in the way of primary polling, it is hard to be certain that Vindman is going to actually be nominated. I think that he probably will though, although a close race would not shock me. Whomever wins, will have to then face the task of unifying the party in a general election against Moody.

 

Right now, both Democrats have appeared in polls that show them trailing Moody by around the same single digit margin. This seems to indicate this race has not gotten a ton of attention yet and both are sort of considered generic stand-ins for their party against the Republican. Vindman happens to have an enormously larger cash advantage than Nixon though, which should help him in the primary, and certainly make it a much smarter idea for Florida Democrats to nominate him over a far more leftist opponent in a state like Florida. There seems to be a likely scenario in Florida where the Democrats nominated for Governor, Lt. Governor, and U.S Senate will all be white in such a diverse state, and that sort of concern about identity politics could play a role here, as there is also a lot of controversy regarding the handful of Democrat leaning Congressional districts left in the state after a DeSantis led redistricting action earlier this year.

 

If Vindman advances to face Moody, this should be a competitive race and he will have the opportunity to appeal to swing voters. The Democrat is not exactly the smoothest candidate though politically and like his brother appears a bit ill at ease at times on camera For her part, Moody seems to have taken on the persona of someone who is always trying to serve up rhetorical red meat to the MAGA base and can come across as a bit cringy in her own right. Some are saying though she is running too cautious of a campaign and that the effort may lack the polished sophistication of some recent Republican Florida winners.

 

A strong blue wave in November washing up on Florida could flip this seat, which would certainly mean Democrats have taken over the Senate. We might not truly be able to see that happening though until the campaign's final weeks. While Florida Democrats should welcome the opportunity to at least be firmly in the fight, the reality is that Republicans hold sway and it will be tough for any Democrat to win a federal election barring some sort of major mistake by the appointed incumbent.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

3 D (2 Safe, 1 Tossup), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

37 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Tossup) 34 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans)