U.S. Senate Race Recaps and Updated Classifications

October 20, 2006
18 Days Until Election Day

Race of the Day recap:

AZ- Likely R
CA- Safe D
CT- Likely D
DE- Safe D
FL- Likely D
HI- Safe D
IN- Safe R
ME- Safe R
MD- Tossup (D)
MA- Safe D
MI- Leans D
MN- Tossup (D)
MS- Safe R
MO- Leans R
MT- Tossup (R)
NE- Likely D
NV- Likely R
NJ- Tossup (D)
NM- Safe D
NY- Safe D
ND- Likely D
OH- Leans R
PA- Tossup (D)
RI- Tossup (R)
TN- Leans R
TX- Safe R
UT- Safe R
VT- Likely D
VA- Leans R
WA- Leans D
WV- Likely D
WI- Safe D
WY- Safe R

A couple quick notes before I offer the updates:

- My classification of CT as Likely D should not be interpreted as leaving the open for a slight possibility of victory by the Republican nominee, but rather as a recognition that because of the unique circumstances of the race, the eventual winner is likely to be a Democrat who possibly, but unlikely, could choose to not caucus with the Democrats in 2007 and beyond. As for the election horse race itself, I classify it as Likely Lieberman.

-My classification of VT as Likely D is in recognition of the fact that a likely winner, although on the ballot as an Independent, would caucus with Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

These original results would cause a result of Democrats holding 46 seats (27 Holdovers, 7 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossups) in the U.S. Senate while Republicans would hold 54 seats (40 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossups) If that would have held up, Democrats would have netted a total pickup of 1 seat.

Now, the updates:

MN- Tossup (D) to Leans D
MO- Leans R to Tossup (R)
MT- Tossup (R) to Tossup (D)
OH- Leans R to Tossup (R)
PA- Tossup (D) to Leans D

Now, I see a result of 47 Democrat U.S. Senate seats (27 Holdovers, 7 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossups) and 53 Republican seats (40 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossups)

Under these revisions, the Democrats would stand to pick up 1 more seat for a net gain of 2.

Like the Gubernatorial races, it is hard to see how the GOP is currently favored to pick up any Senate seat now held by the opposition party. Such a factor would be fairly unprecedented in modern politics, only duplicated to the best of my memory by the Republicans in 1994.

Nonethess, if Democrats are to win a majority in the Senate, which would require 51 seats, to offset Republican Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming, holding the tie-breaking vote, they will seemingly need to win all 3 tossups that I am currently giving to them, in addition to winning all three tossups I forecast going Republican, and also win in either Tennessee or Virginia, in races I am callings Leans Republican.

Final list of predicted winners to be posted on the weekend or Monday before Election Day.