Kansas Governor- Race of the Day

 76 Days Until Election Day

Kansas Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

In a year where Democrats seemingly have so many opportunities to pick up offices currently held by Republicans, this race may be the best example of the reverse, certainly in regards to Gubernatorial races. As tough as a political year it may be for Donald Trump's party, Democrats may have just run out of time in Kansas, as two term Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited and a successor will be chosen. Still though, one cannot completely ignore the electoral accomplishment of her winning twice in heavily red Kansas, or the real intraparty divides among Kansas Republicans that led to those wins. A general election for Governor is now set up in the Sunflower State and there does not appear to be any current polling. Furthermore, political watchers are starting to talk about the U.S. Senate race in that state having turned surprisingly competitive. Democrats may not truly be totally out of luck this year, but it would take a huge stroke of it to turn back conventional wisdom once again.

 

Governor Kelly has maintained pretty strong approval ratings during her eight years as Governor. It remains to be seen whether that can be transferable. As it is, her endorsed candidate to succeed her recently lost the Democrats' primary, indicating that political power can be fleeting. It is still a very different situation though than the last elected Republican Governor of Kansas, whose conservative experimentation in government proved to be unpopular and leading the way for Kelly to win in 2018 with 48 percent against a very divisive Republican opponent. By that time, Sam Brownback had received a federal appointment was no longer Governor. In 2022, Kelly won a second term with just under 50 percent. The Lt. Governor who had succeeded Brownback as Governor very narrowly lost the Republican primary back in 2018, setting the party's November defeat. This year, now former Governor Jeff Colyer a doctor, decided to try to make a political comeback in the race but did not file for the office after Donald Trump endorsed another candidate. 

 

With Kelly, who not long ago was the Chair of the DGA, currently  term limited this year and not attempting to run for the U.S. Senate at age 76, Democrats faced a primary. In Kansas, candidates for Governor select their choices for Lt. Governor in advance of the primaries, and two run on a ticket together, hoping to he nominated in early August. The current Lt. Governor of Kansas did not seek the job, but joined with Kelly in endorsing the candidacy of State Senator Ethan Corson, and he appeared to be a moderate in the mold of the incumbent Governor and the frontrunner for the nomination. That support would not be enough though as Corson and his runningmate, a local Chamber of Commerce President named Renee Duxler finished second in a three way primary with 39 percent of the vote, nearly 10 points the winning ticket. Kansas Democrats once again picked a woman to run for Governor and the nomination went to Cindy Holscher, also a State Senator, Her runningmate is State Representative KC Ohaebosim, a Nigerian-American. His actual first name is Kelechi but going by KC in a state that includes Kansas City is probably not a terrible idea. The Mayor of Overland Park and his physician runningmate finished in a distant third place with 13 percent.

 

Based on what I can find, Holscher does not seem incredibly more liberal than Corson and her campaign website seems a little more bare boned. She was seen as more populist though and apparently made an issue late in the campaign of running against the development of data centers in the state. These issues seemed to resonate most with Democrats and helped her to a primary victory.

 

The Republican field was more crowded even as Trump endorsed State Senate President Ty Masterson and his his partner, fellow State Senator Jeff Klemp. Perhaps Trump felt an affinity for Masterson, because the one time construction industry executive once filed for bankruptcy, a procedure the President is familiar with. While Trump has lost with some Gubernatorial this cycle, that was not the case earlier this month as Masterson easily won the primary with 43 percent. Financial services executive Philip Sarnecki and former Wichita Schools Board Member Joy Eakins, who ended her longshot bid for Governor to join this ticket, finished in second place with 22 percent. In third place with 14 percent was Vicki Schmidt, the statewide elected Insurance Commissioner, and perhaps the favorite of the moderate wing of the party. She ran with Kansas Farm Bureau President Joe Newland. The elected Secretary of State Scott Schwab, running with State Representative Ken Rahjes was next with just 11 percent and there were also three additional losing tickets.

 

With the political dust settled in a state historically hit hard by the Dust Bowl, we can perhaps surmise that both parties did not go with their most electable candidates for Governor. For whatever reason, Governor Kelly found it appropriate to go all in on backing a different candidate than Holscher. There is now party unity among Democrats, but the new nominee will have to try to convince voters that she is in the mold of Kelly and it would be risky to return state government to the party that produced the administration of Sam Brownback. In theory, Masterson should be helped by his party label and a natural desire in the state to return the Governor's Office to that party after eight years of a Democrat. Unity among Kansas Republicans has harder to achieve though in Gubernatorial elections, including a couple in the early 2000s, as some have come to see the state party as being too far to the right, Kelly was considered a balance during her time as Governor, but now Republicans will try to portray Holscher as too far to the left.

 

I will be interested to see the first flow of general election Gubernatorial polls from Kansas. Right now, it looks like the Senate race might make more national headlines, considering what is at play nationally and what a huge upset it would be if a Democrat were to win there for the first time in many generations. A Republican should win an open seat Kansas Gubernatorial race though, even in a bad year for the party. If they fail to do so again, it will be very telling.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

8 D (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

14 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)