Hawai'i Governor- Race of the Day

 83 Days Until Election Day

Hawai'i Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Of all the races I will discuss this year this will likely produce the biggest blowout. Thus, there is really not anyway to make this too interesting. Hawai'i is perhaps the bluest state in the country and the local Republican Party is close to moribund in the Aloha State. It has to be mentioned though that in what is easily the least white of the 50 states, two white candidates are facing off for Governor, and that is the first time that has happened in Hawai'i since 1970.

 

Josh Green is seeking a second term as Governor, one of the several Jewish Democrats who currently serve or are running for Governor across America. Born and raised in the East, Green came to Hawai'i as a physician in 2000 and just a few years later was elected to the State House. From the post of Lt. Governor, Green dominated a primary in 2022 against credible opponents and then won a landslide over a former Republican Lt. Governor. Just the past Saturday, the incumbent took 89 percent against three primary opponents. The last two Democrats to serve as Governor were involved in intraparty divisions and feuds and that hurt their political standings, but Green seems to be pretty well-liked within his party.

 

For what it is worth, Republicans nominated businessman Gary Cordery, who has been active in Christian conservative causes. Republicans have been a distinct minority in Hawai'i for generations now (despite twice electing moderate Jewish Republican Linda Lingle as Governor) but these days, the party tends to be dominated by very conservative voices in the state. Cordery had finished in third place with just 11 percent of the vote in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor, but this time he took 76 percent against one opponent.

 

Per tradition, the Saturday primary also nominated candidates for Lt. Governor who will run on a ticket with the Gubernatorial contenders. Green's 2022 runningmate Sylvia Luke was suspended as Lt. Governor after she was indicted for bribery. Governor Green has called on her to resign but she has not formally done so. He selected a comptroller to serve as Acting Lt. Governor but Keith Regan was not going to be a candidate for the post. Instead, five other Democrats ran and the easy winner of the primary with 66 percent of the vote was Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. His chief opponent was State Representative Della Au Belatti who switched from a Congressional primary challenge once the position of Lt. Governor opened up. She seemed to be the candidate further to the left but only took 26 percent. I cannot say this for certain, but it would appear to me that Kawakami, hailing from Kauai, would be a big deal for his island and most if not all statewide officials have probably been from Oahu, Maui, or the "Big Island" of Hawai'i.

 

Republicans had four candidates run for Lt. Governor and the last place finisher took 18 percent. Either they all had various bases of support of a ton of people just did not know any of these candidates and voted based on the name they liked. The solid first place finisher with 38 percent though was Daniel Anthony, a nonprofit founder and advocate for "healthy food." I suppose he might be one of those RFK Jr. MAHA types, but I am not committing to research it that deeply.

 

Four years ago, as a non-incumbent, Green won in a landslide over a very credible Asian-American Republican opponent in a midterm year for a Democrat President. Now, he is an incumbent and facing a far less well known Republican challenger during a midterm election year for an unpopular Republican President. Green could approach 80 percent of the vote as he "surfs" to a second term.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

6 D, (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (1 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

12 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 12 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup)