Colorado Governor- Race of the Day

 92 Days Until Election Day

 

Colorado Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Let us see if I can make this one quicker than California.

 

Like that large state on the West Coast, Colorado has a Democrat Governor who is term-limited. Having become a multimillionaire as a very young man, outgoing Governor Jared Polis served in the U.S. House starting in 2009 and is now completing his second term as Governor. He had the distinction of being the openly gay man elected to Congress as a non-incumbent and the first openly gay person to be elected Governor in 2018. For a while Polis was seen as a potential national figure, but in recent years, he has taken some stances and made some remarks that caused many in his party to sour on him. This year, he commuted the sentence of a Tina Peters, a former elected county clerk and MAGA cause celebre who had been convicted of trying to overturn the 2020 election. That pretty much ended any goodwill Colorado Democrats as well as many nationally had for Polis, and his endorsement would likely not be welcome at this point.

 

When U.S. Senator Michael Bennet got into the race for Governor, many other ambitious Democrats decided to stay out. Bennet had been a clear political survivor during his time in office (a quixotic 2020 Presidential bid aside) and he looked like a solid frontunner to be his party's nominee. Elected to a third full term in 2022, Bennet would have the power to name his own successor to the Senate if elected Governor.

 

One candidate who did not stand aside was Phil Weiser, the two term Attorney General of Colorado. He picked up several prominent endorsements himself, as some in the party had never really vibed with Bennet, but was seen as a distinct underdog. As the primary campaign progressed though, Weiser played up the actions he took against the Trump Administration as Attorney General and Bennet seemed to struggle from his association in Washington DC and the frustration that so many Democrats feel about their own Senators. Throughout some political history, some might have voted for a candidate other than Bennet because they wanted to keep him as a Senator, and while that is a job he will continue to hold next year, it seems like the most logical explanation is that Bennet was not seen as progressive enough or as enough of a "fighter." On the heels of left-wing primary voters, Weiser upset the Senator in the June primary by a solid margin of 57-43.

 

Now, it is worth mentioning the historic aspect of what would happen if Weiser wins the Governorship, as seems incredibly likely in a state that has trended more blue over the past generation. In succeeding Polis, he would become the first ever Jewish Governor to succeed another Jewish Governor. (Bennet, who does not formally acknowledge any specific religion has a Jewish mother who survived the Holocaust.) I had wondered just how many of Colorado's leftish voters, who like many across the country have become extremely hostile towards Israel and willing to at least dabble in antisemitism realized that their candidate Weiser is Jewish and considers himself pro-Israel.

 

The Republican part of this equation is really a mess. For one thing, Colorado has a system where candidates either have to receive a level of support at a party State Assembly or petition their way onto the primary ballot. Throughout the campaign season, three candidates withdrew, including one who ran instead and was nominated this year for the U.S. Senate. Four candidates were eliminated at the convention. One of the ones withdrawing from the race was Greg Lopez, who decided to run instead as an Independent. A former Democrat and small town Mayor with a messy past personal life, Lopez had lost the last two Republican Gubernatorial primaries in Colorado before winning a 2024 special election to Congress. He did not seek a full term that year but served about six months on Capitol Hill. It is unclear exactly why Lopez left the Republican Party, but his presence on the ballot can only hurt them at this point, and a whole bunch of traditional Republicans may wind up casting a protest vote for him and his runningmate political activist Taralyn Romero. Several other independent or third party tickets will also be on the ballot, and it looks like they all will be more likely to take more votes from the Republican than from Weiser.

 

In this race, Republicans definitely have a Marxist problem. The party that seems to plan to message this year that all Democrats are Marxists has nominated a man named Victor Marx, a pastor and first time candidate. He took 39 percent in the primary, winning by half a percentage point against State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer, the establishment favorite. She had lost a couple of races for Congress, including a narrow general election defeat in 2022, but was seen as the one Republican who might be competitive in a general election and have crossover appeal. Finishing in third with 21 percent of the vote was Scott Bottoms, a conservative State Representative.

 

Even before the primary vote, both Kirkmeyer and Bottoms made it clear they could not support Marx in a general election. Marx, whose father's name was apparently actually Karl, had a very complicated childhood to say the least. He has claimed that he was abused by his stepfather and at the age of 3 started doing horrific things to cats. Then, he said at age 7, his stepfather made him kill a man in Mississippi. A lot of people think Marx is actually lying about that but are more concerned that he claims he is not certain how many people he may have actually killed and has not denied having killed anyone as an adult. A Marine veteran, Marx became a born again Christian and pastor who was associated with some very hard right positions. Additionally, he claims his brother in law tried to shoot him in 2023, but that person was apparently not charged. The brother in law in currently locked up though for suspicion of murdering a girlfriend. Marx appears more open to discussing his experience in conducting exorcisms. (Can he do anything about Trump?)

 

In his primary, Marx was endorsed by Colorado Congresswomen Lauren Boebert, controversial MAGA figure and former General Michael Flynn and aging rock star Ted Nugent. The candidate's positions on guns and cultural issues and being a thoroughly political outsider was enough to get nearly 40 percent of the vote of a state's primary electorate which has become more solidly MAGA. Donald Trump did not endorse a candidate in this race. Considering how extremely close the final primary result was, an endorsement of Kirkmeyer or even Bottoms could have made the difference, at least for the primary.

 

Since the primary, the candidates have selected Lt. Governor running-mates. Weiser went with one of his early backers, Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper. Marx did not find anyone named Engels to run with him. I thought it was possible he would select the newly freed Tina Peters to join him on the ticket but he instead he picked George Markert, an ideologically similar fellow Marine veteran, who was eliminated at the 2026 Republican Assembly when he ran for U.S. Senate.

 

In theory, an open Gubernatorial race in Colorado should be competitive There are some U.S. House races this year that will be tightly contested and the Republicans are probably not relishing running o a ticket with Marx. I genuinely feel for him if he was abused as a child but as an adult, Victor Marx seems beyond weird and creepy and nobody who has any business as Governor of anything. Even if Colorado were not a light blue state, voters most anywhere would probably agree. I think this one probably ends in a landslide for Weiser.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

4 D, (1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

10 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely)