Alabama U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 99 Days Until Election Day

Alabama U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

As has been the case for many years now, Alabama is a conservative, deep red state politically and even an open U.S. Senate race will not generate much news this cycle. Democrats have fielded their strongest possible candidate for Governor and are making somewhat of an effort in some other statewide races, but sending a Democrat to Washington looks pretty impossible. This is in spite of an energized electorate, including a large African-American population wanting to make their votes heard against Donald Trump and recent mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House.

Currently, this seat is held by Republican Tommy Tuberville, a polarizing and less than brilliant former football coach. Instead of seeking a second term in the Senate, where he seemed to never quite fit in, Tuberville is running for and is likely to be elected Governor of Alabama this year. He faces the former Senator he defeated in 2020 in that general election.

 

With Doug Jones as their candidate for Governor, Alabama Democrats were left searching for a lower tier hopeful. Four candidates ran in the May primary and in a state where black voters make up the core of the party, two African-American candidates advanced to a June Senate runoff. In that contest, an older more establishment candidate, Everett Weiss defeated Dakarai Larriett younger candidate who ran more to the left. Despite running a less visible race, it was perhaps no surprise that Weiss, an attorney and frequent candidate with church ties won the runoff 55-45 over Larriett an openly gay candidate and businessman who seemed to be spurned into politics by what he claims was a false arrest in Michigan after a 2024 traffic stop.

 

Most of the action in this race was of course on the Republican side. Many considered jumping into the race including former Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl, trying to follow in the footsteps of former Tigers football coach Tuberville, but he ultimately did not run. Nor did Paul Finebaum, a well-know SEC football media commentator. Current Attorney General Steve Marshall did run, but fell just short of making the June runoff.

Advancing to that contest was Congressman Barry Moore (no relation to Roy Moore, the last Republican to lose an Alabama Senate election) and former Navy SEAL and tactical training company owner Jared Hudson. Both candidates claimed to be the true MAGA conservative in the race, but Donald Trump backed Moore, who is said to have been the first ever elected official in America to endorse Donald Trump for President during his time as a State Representative. Moore went on to be elected to Congress in 2020 and in 2024 prevailed in a competitive Republican primary after having been thrown in the same district as a House Republican colleague by redistricting which has since been rescinded to the benefit of Republicans in Alabama.

 

The younger Hudson ran as a political outsider and in the primary and runoff, he and Moore traded barbs about each other's trustworthiness and ethics. Some prominent Republicans backed Hudson, such as then Oklahoma Senator and now DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin but most of the establishment followed Trump's lead and endorsed Moore, even though he was considered the anti-establishment candidate in his Congressional primaries. In spite of the Trump endorsement, Hudson made this more of a race than some would have expected. He trailed Moore 39-26 in the initial primary and then lost the runoff 56-44. Hudson will likely seek office again sometime and for now the two former opponents have seemed to bury the political hatchet.

 

A founder of a waste hauling company, Moore now seems poised to succeed Tuberville in the Senate. During his time as a state legislator he was indicted on perjury charges but later acquitted. He seems to not exactly be a gregarious backslapping type in the way that many southern politicians were once known for, but in this day and age, being a reliable vote for Trump is seemingly all that matters in a place like Alabama. The Democrat Weiss simply is unlikely to have anything close to the financial resources needed to compete and will struggle to have enough name recognition in November. 

 

Barry Moore will probably not be considered any kind of bipartisan legislator or unifying figure for as long as he serves in the Senate. However, announcing his support for Donald Trump way back in 2015, when most elected Republican officeholders around the country though his candidacy was likely to be short-lived definitely turned into a political win for Moore.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

0 D, 1 R (1 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

34 D (34 holdover) 32 R (31 holdover, 1 Safe)