Alaska Governor- Race of the Day

 98 Days Until Election Day

 

Alaska Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

In all the years I have been doing this feature, this particular entry feels the most perplexing to me. There seems to be so much worth touching on but being far away from Alaska, I really do not have too much insight into what might actually happen. Most of the national attention will be on the state's two federal races, but the contest for Governor is of course a big deal in Alaska. The entire picture might be clearer in the days after August 18 when we will know the "final four" candidates that will be voted on in November. In the meantime, the primary, in this case what I will call a "tundra primary" will feature 12 Republicans,  three Democrats, and three Independents, all running with their individual Lt. Governor running-mates. That makes a grand total of 36 names on the ballot, hoping to be part of the top four tickets, who will advance to November, regardless of party. Then, there will be ranked choice voting in that contest, which means it will probably take several days before we know who the next Governor of Alaska will be.

 

Let us start with some basics. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. Many want him to run for the U.S. Senate in 2028 against maverick Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. Dunleavy's Lt. Governor Nancy Dalhstrom, who also lost a contest for U.S. House two years ago, announced her candidacy for Governor, but after being unable to compete financially with other Republican candidates dropped out. The two candidates who might have been considered the strongest to run for Governor decided not to. They are Senator Murkowski herself who was said to have given some consideration to trying to get out of Washington and be elected to another post her father once held. There is also former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, a Democrat, who narrowly lost her House seat in a Presidential turnout year in 2024, but remained popular, She had her choice of running for Governor, which may have been the best bet for a political comeback, a House re-match, or a race for the U.S. Senate against a Republican incumbent. She chose the latter, to the delight of Democrats at least in the other states who want to see her party win a majority.

 

Over the past couple of generations, Republicans have typically won most statewide races in Alaska, but Democrats have also won when circumstances were right. Many believe that 2026 will be such a year and that the controversial concept of ranked choice voting will help them. Personally, I have a lot of issues with ranked choice voting, hut as someone who dislikes what is going on with both major parties, I cannot exactly feel bad about them being weakened by such a thing.

 

We will have a far better idea about how November will go in this race, once we know who advances. There will be at least one Democrat and at least one Republican for sure.Could an Independent join them If so, it will be former Governor Bill Walker, running this year with ex-State Revenue Commissioner Randy Hoffbeck. A lifelong Republican, Walker won the Governorship as an Independent in 2014, after joining into a coalition with the state's Democrats and also having the support of former Republican Governor Sarah Palin. When he sought reelection in 2018, Walker struggled and attempted to drop out late in an attempt to stop the Republican Dunleavy and help a Democrat, but that did not work. Neither did a comeback attempt for the office four years ago. At this point, Walker has become a perennial candidate for Governor and at age 75 might have lost any sort of political luster needed to advance to the final four.

 

So the general election will probably have either two Republicans and two Democrats or one Demoocrat and three Republicans. Whom the voters rank second or even third will play a huge role in determining the ultimate winner and there are all sorts of theories about what would be the best situation for whom. There are more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, but it seems like the Republican Party, with far more candidates in the field this cycle is more divided. If the top Republican vote getter is an ideological MAGA type, which seems more likely than not, that leaves a big opening for a somewhat moderate Democrat to win more Independent voters or be ranked second by supporters of a different kind of Republican candidate.

 

Let us now look at the Democrats in this race. The person doing best in the polls is former State Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich. He is running with former USDA state official Julie Hnilcka. Begich is certainly a well known name in Alaska politics. The candidate's father once served as the state's Congressman before dying in a plane crash at age 40. His son, who is Tom's younger brother, won a U.S. Senate seat in 2008 as a Democrat under unusual circumstances He was defeated for a second term and then lost as his party's nominee for Governor in 2018, in the last year before ranked choice voting became a thing. Now, Tom Begich, who is also a musician, is running for Governor and is considered to be someone with a record of having worked successfully with Republicans and who has cross-over appeal. There is also a Republican branch to the family tree. The candidate's nephew Nick Begich was elected narrowly to the U.S. House in 2024 and is now in a battleground campaign for reelection against an Independent, who is being backed by Democrats. It remains to be seen what effect two Begiches on the ballot, from different parties, and confusion that might bring. In Alaska's Senate race this year there are two candidates with the same first and last name and that has gotten much attention.

 

Also running is former State Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins, "JKT:'s running mate is Anchorage Assemblyman  Zach Johnson. Kreiss-Tompkins is a good deal younger than Begich and considered further to the left .Both Democrats have received some major endorsements from party figures. It is considered unlikely that JKT would get more votes than Begich if both are on the November ballot, but Democrats probably hope both can make it, as their respective voters would probably rank them one and two.

 

Right now, the Republican frontrunner seems to be businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, a conservative activist, who amassed a following as a radio host. Her running mate is former State Senator Mike Shower. She is saying that if she is not the top Republican vote getter in August, she will quit the race. Likely, she will call for other Republicans to do the same. While Donald Trump has not issued an endorsement here (at least yet) , Wilson is seen as the most MAGA of the candidates, although a couple other tickets are also pushing for that vote. One of them is the ticket of former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and construction contractor Josh Church. One of the more traditional Republican tickets in the field consists of former Attorney General Treg Taylor and manufacturing executive Candi English. There may not be as much of a lane now for that sort of candidacy that might be thought of as more aligned with the traditional Republican Dunleavy status quo. Another Republican ticket consists of Clark Bishop, a former State Senator, running with Greta Schuerch, a somewhat glamorous regional director of a Native American entity in the state. She is a registered non-partisan (some of the running-mates across the board do not necessarily belong to the same party as their principal) and Bishop is considered a more moderate Republican who has backing from labor unions. If he advances to the top four, some of his support might split for a Democrat instead of Wilson.

 

Once again, I cannot claim to be any sort of expert in Alaska politics, and I only spent a fairly short time researching all this information. It does seem like the moderate Democrat Tom Begich and the MAGA Republican Bernadette Wilson will make it to November, although with so many Republicans running, it is possible that the other Democrat in the field may even finish second in August and advance. Once the final field is set, there will be more to consider and look into in regards to polling as to how ranked choice voting might break down. It does seem though like Wilson, a first-time candidate might have some difficulty coalescing Independents and moderate Republicans as compared to some others in her party and if Begich is considered acceptable to those voters, things could tilt towards him on the second or third ballot.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

1 D, (1 Tossup), 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

7 D (6 holdover, 1 Tossup), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely)