U.S. House Predictions: North Carolina- Oregon

 12 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina

 

Note: North Carolina is one of the states that has a new Congressional map since the 2022 elections. Thus, as I would after a post-census redistricting cycle, I am presenting the information specifically related to the new districts, while also listing the current totals under the outgoing North Carolina map.

1. Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckout R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (D)

2. Deborah Ross D vs. Alan Swain R (Biden 67%) - Safe D

3. Greg Murphy R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Eric Blankenburg R (Biden 72%)- Safe D

5. Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

6. Addison McDowell R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

7. Marlando Pridgen D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 55%)- Safe R

8. Justin Dues D vs. Mark Harris R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

9. Nigel Bristow D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

10. Ralph Scott D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

11. Caleb Rudow D vs Chuck Edwards R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

12. Alma Adams D vs. Addul Ali R (Biden 74%)- Safe D

13. Frank Pierce D vs. Brad Knott R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

14. Pam Genant D vs. Tim Moore R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

NC current: 7 D, 7 R

NC predicted: 4 D, 10 R

Current total: 162 D, 135 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)

130 R ( 75 Safe,  29 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

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North Dakota

 

1. Open (Kelly Armstrong R)- (Trump 65%)- Likely R

ND current: 0 D, 1 R

ND predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 162 D, 136 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)

131 R ( 75 Safe,  30 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

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Ohio

 

1. Greg Landsman D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

2. Open (Brad Wenstrup R)- (Trump 72%)- Safe R

3. Joyce Beatty D (Biden 71%)- Safe D

4. Jim Jordan R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

5. Bob Latta R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

6. Michael Rulli R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

7. Max Miller R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

8. Warren Davidson R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

9. Marcy Kapter D (Trump 51%)- Leans D

10. Mike Turner R (Trump 51%)- Likely R

11. Shontel Brown D (Biden 78%)- Safe D

12. Troy Balderson R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

13. Emilia Sykes D (Biden 51%)- Leans D

14. Dave Joyce R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

15. Mike Carey R (Trump 53%)- Likely R

OH current: 5 D, 10 R

OH predicted: 5 D, 10 R

Current total: 167 D, 146 R

Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)

141 R ( 82 Safe,  33 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

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Oklahoma

 

1. Kevin Hern R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

2. Josh Brecheen R (Trump 76%)- Safe R

3. Frank Lucas R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

4. Tom Cole R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. Stephanie Bice R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R

OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 167 D, 151 R

 

Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)

146 R ( 86 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

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Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Biden 68%)- Safe D

2. Cliff Bentz R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

3. Open (Earl Blumenauer D)- (Biden 73%)- Safe D

4. Val Hoyle D (Biden 55%)- Leans D

5. Lori Chavez-DeRemer R (Biden 53%)- Tossup (D)

6. Andrea Salinas D (Biden 55%)- Leans D

OR current: 4 D, 2 R

OR predicted: 5 D, 1 R

Current total: 171 D, 153 R

Predicted:

177 D (107 Safe, 33 Likely, 24 Leans, 13 Tossup)

147 R ( 87 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)