Nebraska Governor- Race of the Day

 59 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

There is a perception that the Cornhusker State is as red in its politics as the stands at a Saturday football game in Lincoln. While that is definitely true in the rural parts of the state, possible anger over tariffs aside, the same cannot be said for the urban areas and perhaps less so than before in the suburbs. One Congressional district is thought to be a top for Democrats to flip and one other might be competitive. In the next edition, I will talk about the race for U.S. Senate between a Republican and an Independent being backed by Democrats. Today though, the focus is on the Gubernatorial race, which was not really supposed to be competitive, but some recent developments have made it so.

It has been 32 years since Democrats last won the Governorship of Nebraska and if they are to do it this year, it will likely need a wave election throughout the country. Four years ago, Republican Jim Pillen, a veterinarian, farmer, and former University Regent, who was also once indeed a star football player for the Huskers, won a competitive primary. Pillen was considered positioned to the middle of his two main opponents, a moderate State Senator, and a Donald Trump endorsed MAGA agribusiness executive, who was faced with several scandals during the campaign. With the nomination secured, Pillen took 59 percent in November to become Governor.

In office though, Pillen has seen to tack even further to the right than he was, such as calling his political opponents "libtard.". The Governor also sustained serious injuries in a 2024 horseback riding accident. It could be that Pillen had become concerned about a potential primary challenge in 2026. Charles Herbster, the Trump backed candidate the incumbent beat the last time, considered a run but did not follow through. The more moderate candidate from 2022, former State Senator Brett Lindstrom also did not amount a challenge, at least not in the Republican primary. In May, Pillen took 75 percent against a handful of opponents. The second place candidate was a guy named Walz, who did not appear to be related to Nebraska native Tim Walz, the Minnesota Governor who was nominated for Vice President in 2024 and saw some of his Nebraska Republican relatives speak out against him that year. Pillen is running again with incumbent Lt Governor Joe Kelly. Once nominated, candidates for Governor formally select their running-mates.

Pillen will now face another opponent named Walz, and this one apparently is a distant cousin, via marriage, to Tim. Former State Senator Lynn Walz took 92 percent in the primary for Democrats. In 2018, she had been the Lt. Governor nominee for her party and the ticket lost soundly. While partisan affiliation for Nebraska Senators is not exactly a secret, the chamber is technically non-partisan and it is the only unicameral legislation in the nation. Adding a political quark to Nebraska, is the fact that the state assigns an Electoral Vote for each Congressional District, instead of only statewide and the Omaha based district has been a "blue dot" in the last couple elections. Pillen tried, but was unsuccessful in changing that for 2024, at the behest of Donald Trump. If he is reelected, the change likely will be made for 2028 though, so this race has national implications. One can also theorize that if Nebraska does this, the only other state who has the same law, Maine, if continued to be controlled by Democrats, would follow suit, thus making it all somewhat moot. This year, Walz selected farmer Ben Steffen, a former Republican to run with her. A former teacher, Walz is playing up her bipartisan cooperation record in office.

Walz is a credible candidate for her party, but faces serious odds in a state like Nebraska. There is also the candidate of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party which could take votes from the left. For some odd reason, Nebraska LMN nominees have recently tended to pass away during the campaign or have health problems. The race this year for Governor has become more complex though, to go along with a second consecutive Senate election in which an Independent candidate was competitive against a Republican.

To the surprise of some, Lindstrom, the former moderate Republican candidate (who might be considered a conservative most other places in a pre-Trump era) said he wanted to run for Governor as an Independent, along with Navy veteran and volleyball coach Mike Picard on his ticket. Lindstrom, who had also list a 2012 Congressional primary, ran as a Republican for an open House seat this year but dropped out of the race, seeming to concede he could not win a Republican primary, and saying he was fed up with the divisiveness of modern politics. Then, he emerged as a candidate for Governor. Legal wrangling ensued regarding petitions and the eligibility of Lindstrom and it looked like he would not be on the ballot. The saga was not over though, and I cannot claim to understand all the minutia, but somehow the anti-Trump former Republican candidate has become the nominee of the ironically named America First Party. This sets up a four-way general election although I thought I recently read something about the Marijuana candidate saying he would not devote too much energy to the campaign. I cannot seem to find the source of that, but perhaps stoners are not exactly known for their energy to begin with.

With Lindstrom running as a centrist and vowing to major policy reforms, it raises the question of how his candidacy could shake up this race. He has said he does not wish to be a "spoiler" in the campaign, although of course the banner of "America First" could cause confusion for MAGA folks. Would Lindstrom running split the Republican vote and help Walz the Democrat or would he split the anti-Pillen vote and thus help the Republican? My first instinct was the latter. I thought it would make the most sense for Walz and Lindstrom to come to some sort of agreement as to who would be the strongest candidate. Others have seemed to think the opposite though and that the third party candidacy will give disaffected Republicans who do not wish to vote for a Democrat an option. I do see that side too and will note that Nebraska voters will already be considering an Independent candidate running with the support of Democrats.

I still think a Republican losing the race for Governor would be less likely than a Senate upset, but maybe not by much. Polls were showing Pillen ahead of Walz by anything from two to 12 points without Lindstrom as a choice. Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty right now about the dynamics of this race. It will probably come down to the Republican incumbent and the Democrat challenger at the end in terms of the top two (although I would of course be positively inclined towards Lindstrom) and at least for now, it would be hard to pick against the Republican in Nebraska.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

 7 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

15 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)