Massachusetts Governor- Race of the Day

 67 Days Until Election Day

Massachusetts Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East) 

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

This Tuesday, as September arrives and the 2026 primary calendar approaches its conclusion, Massachusetts voters will go to the polls. Most of the attention will be on which Democrat will be nominated for U.S. Senate, but there is always a race for Governor. Here, Republicans have often won the Corner Office, despite the status of the largest state in New England being historically quite Democrat. In the age of Trump though, it appears to be out of reach for that party.

 

Like Maryland, the year of 2022 had a popular moderate Republican leaving office and the party nominating a MAGA candidate over a more traditional GOP option. This caused an easy pickup for Democrats. This year, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey is seeking a second term after wining with 64 percent the last time. On that day, she became one of the nation's first two lesbian women to be elected Governor of any state. This cycle, she was unopposed for renomination and will be paired up once again with the current Lt. Governor Kim Driscoll. In Massachusetts, separate primaries are held for the two offices, although Gubernatorial candidates often recruit a candidate or state their preference. The two are then combined into a ticket for the general election and Massachusetts and I believe Healey and Driscoll are the first all-female ticket to win in such a way. There should be at least one other all female ticket joining them this year in another east coast state. Only after being sworn in as Governor, did Healey publicly revealed she was in a domestic partnership with a woman who had been her chief deputy as the Commonwealth's Attorney General. (The Governor would also appoint an ex-girlfriend to the Massachusetts Supreme Court. One thinks that a male executive would find it harder to get away with such a thing.)

 

On Tuesday, Republicans will choose between two Gubernatorial candidates for the right to enter into an uphill battle against the incumbent. The party already had a convention in April where they endorsed candidates for statewide office. After that vote one candidate, a former state cabinet secretary ended his bid leaving the field set between medical technology executive Mike Minogue and venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve, who once had a leadership role in a local transportation authority. Both men are businessmen military veterans who had not previously run for office. Minogue took 70 percent at the convention to easily win the party endorsement. There does not seem to be a ton of ideological differences between them Shortsleeve takes a more pro-choice position on abortion. With Minogue favored to win the primary, this could be somewhat of an issue in the general election as Healey recently signed legislation allowing expanded abortions in the state up until birth. I will state that is something that would be considered unheard of even in socially liberal European nations.

 

A candidate for Lt. Governor will be chosen also for Republicans. With three original Gubernatorial candidates aligned with a Lt Governor candidate, two of them have been disqualified from the primary ballot. The party's choice,  supported b Minogue, former Wayland Selectman Anne Brensley was part of a petition signature scandal, and is now instead trying to win a write-in nomination for Secretary of State. The quasi running-mate of the candidate who dropped out after the convention, Peabody City Councilor Anne Manning Martin also had a signature problem and was disqualified but has not given up a legal fight. With both of this Annes having run into such problems, the nomination looks like it will go to Shortsleeve's choice, New Bedford City Councilor Shawn Oliver. This means that Minogue will not go into November with his preferred choice but the person currently running his with his primary rival.

 

Additional candidates will be on the general election ballot, but are unlikely to make much of a difference. This race might very well be seen as "Safe" closer to Election Day, but I am still going to call it "Likely" until we see how the primary falls off. It seems weird to say it, but it feels to me like Minogue, despite his views on abortion, might be the more competitive general election candidate, on other issues, but also in a way because angry Pro-Life voters, upset about Healey and her allies cheeting at an event where she signed a bill to allow abortion up until birth in matters that do not necessarily relate to the physical health of the mother, might be more apt to show up for him. None of that is likely to matter too much though. Massachusetts is a liberal state and this is not a good year to be a Republican in a lot of states, and especially in Massachusetts.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

10 D (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 2Tossup)

 6 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

16 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)