Maine Governor- Race of the Day

 71 Days Until Election Day

 

Maine Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

This year, the Senate race in Maine has gotten a lot of headlines, and soon enough I will cover that, but there is also an electing pending for Governor of the state and the amount of candidates who ran was pretty staggering. Several of the contenders would go on to play a role in the Senate saga also. A primary was held in June and then there was the wait for ranked choice voting tabulations as Maine is the only state along with Alaska that currently has that somewhat crazy system in place.

For starters, Democrat Janet Mills is ineligible to serve a third term as Governor. In 2018 she won a three way contest for the job, as Independent candidates in Maine often play a significant role and then four years later she easily defeated her controversial Republican predecessor as Governor (who now will at the soon to be age of 78 potentially get elected to Congress from the Republican leaning Congressional district in the state.) For her part, Mills, who is now 78 herself was recruited to run for the U.S. Senate against a vulnerable incumbent Republican. However, whether it was her age or her establishment backing, Mills failed miserably as a Senate candidate. She basically dropped out of that race, and then when the frontrunner was besieged by scandal, hoped to have somewhat of an another opportunity. She still lost big though and her political career will be ending. The fact that she fell so flat in 2026 among Maine Democrats might be a sign that her tenure as Governor might have been far from perfect and people could be looking for change. 

 

For the Democrats, Congressman Jared Golden, a politically promising young moderate who represented the Republican leaning district did not run for Governor, nor did he run for the Senate, or even reelection. Numerous Democrats did though including Angus King III, an energy executive whose father served two terms as an Independent Governor of Maine and has currently been serving in that capacity as one of Maine's Senators, caucusing with the Democrats. Another scion of Maine politics in the field was Hannah Pingree, whose mother represents one of Maine's Congressional districts, and declined to run statewide this year herself, as she has the past several cycles, after one previous unsuccessful Senate bid. Hannah Pingree, when she was quite young politically, served in the Maine House, culminating in a couple of years as Speaker. She then entered the private sector and would serve as an aide to Governor Mills.

 

While King only took eight percent in the primary, Pingree was second with 23 percent. In third place with 21 percent was Troy Jackson, a one time Republican, turned liberal Democrat backed by Bernie Sanders. With a background as a logger, the blue collar Jackson had served as President of the Maine Senate before he was term-limited. In fourth place with 21 percent was Shenna Bellows, the Secretary of State, which in Maine is appointed by the legislature. Bellows was the Democrats' nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 when she lost in a landslide. The first place primary finisher with 27 percent was Nirav Shah, a physician and the son of Indian immigrants. Before service in the health policy field during the Biden Administration, he became known in Maine as the person at the point for the state's Covid response and apparently became popular there because of his press conferences during the pandemic. Before that, he had served as the Illinois Director of the Department of Public Health under a Republican Governor. A Legionnaire's Disease outbreak in in the state that caused deaths led him to have his time there end under a scandal and investigations. Apparently though that did not prevent him from gainful important employment in Maine. (As as Illinoisan, I really do not even remember him from the time.)

 
Shah's small plurality first place showing would certainly not be enough in a state where nominations are decided by RCV. By the third round, Pingree moved ahead of him and by Round 4, Jackson's supporters had gone to Pingree and she won the nomination over Shah 56-44.

 

Even more Republicans ran for Governor. Among those who reached double digits was Garrett Mason with 11 percent. The former State Senate Majority Leader had finished a distant second in the 2018 primary for Governor. Then with 20 percent was businessman Jonathan Bush, a nephew and cousin of a couple of my favorite Presidents, and the brother of one-time Access Hollywood interviewer Billy Bush. Jonathan Bush ran as a "disruptor" and while not necessarily claiming to be MAGA tried to present himself as a bit of a Maine version of Donald Trump. It seemed clear that many in the party would look at his last name and rule him out immediately. Also at 20 percent, just ahead of Bush was former fitness company CEO Ben Midgley. The first place finisher was a candidate who was probably considered more to the right than the other names just mentioned. Bobby Charles, an attorney with a lengthy resume that included a couple years as an Assistant Secretary of State in the George W. Bush Administration took 38 percent, easily leading the field. Maine Republicans seemed less willing to participate in Ranked Choice Voting, as Charles even told them not to. The margins did not change a huge amount until the seventh round when Charles beat Midgley 60-40. Bush had moved into second at some point until he was out in Round 6.

 

An Independent candidate is also on the ballot after deciding not to run as a Republican. Rick Bennett is currently in his second distinct stint as a State Senator, having become an Independent not long ago. He first joined the Maine legislature in 1990 and had been State Senate President in the year 2002. Later he chaired the Maine Republican Party  Bennett had passed up previous chances to run for Governor but finished third in a 2012 GOP primary for U.S. Senate. Additionally, a State Representative serving as a Democrat also became an Independent and prepared to run for Governor but failed to make the ballot. Bennett will be a choice in November though and could appeal to moderates who think Charles is too conservative and Pingree too liberal. Polls are only showing him in high single digits though which means he does not have enough to have a chance to win but can definitely play spoiler, especially since Maine does not use RCV for Gubernatorial general elections. (Adding to the confusion it is used for federal general elections.)

 

Polls this summer seem to be showing a solid lead for Pingree over Charles. Maine Republicans likely did not nominate their best possible general election candidate (while the quality of Maine Democrats and some of their choices will be a story for another day.) I think this race should probably be considered fluid though depending on how well Bennett might do. 

 

Maine is overall a blue state with one smaller section that is heavily so coexisting with the larger rural part of the state which has gone more heavily Republican in recent years, and which is a bigger story regarding the Presidential Electoral College. The result of the Senate race and one of the Congressional districts will get far more national coverage on Election Night than the race to replace Janet Mills, but it sure looks like the daughter of a sitting Congresswoman is well on the path to become Governor.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

9 D (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

15 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)