Nevada Governor- Race of the Day

57 Days Until Election Day

Nevada Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

On this Labor Day, a traditional benchmark point of election season, we look at a race for Governor of a state where organized labor has been known to hold political sway. While Democrats, often buoyed by the political machine built by the later Senator Harry Reid has tended to win most big federal races in Nevada, Republicans have been far more successful in contests for Governor.

 

Four years ago, Republican Joe Lombardo, the two-term Sheriff of high profile Clark County, took the Governorship over a first term Democrat in a 49-47 race. This was the only Governorship to flip from blue to red that cycle. Nevada politics can be seen as both transient in nature, with so many newcomers arriving in the state each year and also representative of national trends against a party in power. This sort of dynamic, which heavily involved the economic and social aftermath of the Covid pandemic and the related shutdowns, worked to elect a Republican during a midterm year of a Democrat President. This year, the opposite trend against a Republican President should be in effect nationally and at present, I have been a bit more surprised that the Democrat nominee does not seem to be in a stronger position. It could be that Lombardo is just a politically successful politician or it could be that a state with a lot of socially and economically downcast voters without high education levels are just pretty heavily Republican these days.

 

Unlike four years ago, when he had to face higher profile opponents, including one well to his right, the incumbent Lombardo cruised to a victory in the June primary with 91 percent of the vote. One unique quirk to Nevada politics are the voters can choose to cast a ballot for "None of These Candidates"  and have it count towards the total. 

 

The nomination for Democrats also seemed to be largely settled early. The choice of the party establishment was Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is seeking to become Nevada's first black Governor. After winning a tight open race in 2018, Ford was reelected in 2022 by a solid margin,. He has clearly indicated an ability to win statewide, although a race for Governor is definitely a bigger deal. In the primary, Ford took 63 percent while Alexis Hill, the Washoe County Commission Chair took 24 percent. She seemed to run on a bit more of a populist agenda.

 

It is worth nothing that in addition to the none of the above option, several other candidates will appear on the November ballot and that could be a bit of a hindrance for Ford in unifying the anti-incumbent vote. One of them is Danielle Ford who was elected to the Nevada Board of Education from a swing district in the state. Yes, while not related, she shares the same last name with the nominee of the Democrats.

 

As a statewide candidate, Lombardo has had to balance what he has said from time to time about Donald Trump. That might be especially challenging this year but the Governor has recently appeared at a rally with the President. In May of this year, the Governor, who has also raced cars competitively, was driving along with his wife, when he was pulled over by a Las Vegas cop for a red light violation. Body camera footage shows the former police officer and longtime law enforcement official who is now Governor identifying himself by name. The officer says he is aware and then lets him go on his way. It definitely pays to be Governor. I wonder how many chief executives are still regularly driving themselves these days. 

 

In this cycle, Lombardo has received the endorsement of several labor unions, which is not all that common for a Republican. He even has the support of the Clark County Teachers Union, the largest in the state, while the official state teachers union is backing Aaron Ford. The powerful Culinary Union has also endorsed the Democrat, as they typically do.

 

I have long expected this race to be at least a tossup and thought that Ford might have a good chance to knock off an incumbent in this particular cycle. The polls are showing a competitive race, but Lombado ahead at right around the 50 percent margin. if that is accurate, he is likely to win another term. Over the past 32 years, the first Trump midterm of 2018 was the only time a Democrat has won the Governorship though. This is interesting because in downballot statewide races, Democrats have been winning more than their share for a while. 

 

This is a race to keep an eye on. Nevada has a long period of early voting and a particular political journalist there posts a lot on a daily basis about how the voting seems to be going based on party registration and political junkies around the country pay close attention. Nevada was a swing state in 2024 that went to Trump by 4 points, and was symbolic of his somewhat surprising win that year. If Ford can make inroads among African-American voters, and especially Latino voters, whose dissatisfaction with the status quo made them go for Trump two years ago, he will have a real chance of winning. If those voters view Lombardo as a more sensible political leader with his own identity, then it will be tougher to win. Right now, data seems to show the incumbent has a modest edge.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

  8 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)