U.S. House Predictions: Alabama- Arkansas

14 Days Until Election Day

 

To start this off, I am going to try to ease it into this a bit. I have been predicting all 435 House races on here since the 2006 election and while I hate to brag, I have an extremely good record at this, especially in the latest cycles. With only doing some extremely light research, I wind up having a correct/incorrect record as to the winner that is as good as or better than the professional pundits who go on tv. 

 

That being said, I think I might be headed to my worst record yet this cycle. If there is a wave election, I will definitely miss a bunch of seats that may go Blue. Also, there is just so much redistricting in various states, even since the 2024 election, that it is much harder to gauge what will happen. The only real source I can seem to find for all the current 2026 districts that include the 2024 Presidential results by district are from Daily Kos. They are probably accurate, but it is pretty amazing that I find myself reliant on them to be trustworthy.

 

Since so many states have different district lines than 2024, I might as well just list the major candidates in each district. That will take some time and I might have some misspellings or other non-intentional errors along the way. Unfortunately for our democracy, we are probably entering an era where all sorts of states will be redrawing their lines every two years. 

 

Finally, I must be transparent and point out that on July 23, on a post about Special Elections, I predicted the 13th District in Georgia would be Safe D, and of course it was. However, I said it would "Likely" go to a specific Democrat that lost and instead went to someone else. Neither of those Democrats ran in the regular election anyway.

 

Alabama

 

1. Clyde Jones D vs. Jerry Carl R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

2. Shomari Figures D vs. Rhett Marquis R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

3. Lee McInnis D vs. Mike Rogers R (Trump 73%)- Safe R

4. Amanda Pusczek D vs. Robert Aderholt R (Trump 83%)- Safe R

5. Andrew Sneed D vs. Dale Strong R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

6. Maurice Mercer D vs. Gary Palmer R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

7. Terri Sewell D vs. Ammie Akin R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

 

AL current: 2 D, 5 R

AL predicted: 1 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 2 D, 5 R

 

Predicted:

 

1 D (1 Likely)

6 R (5 Safe, 1 Leans)

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Alaska

 

1. Eric Hafner D vs. Bill Hill I vs. Nick Begich R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

 

AK current: 0 D, 1 R

AK predicted: 0 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 2 D, 6 R

 

Predicted:

 

1 D (1 Likely)

7 R (5 Safe, 2 Leans)

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Arizona

 

1. Amish Shah D vs. Jay Feely R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

2. Jonathan Nez D vs. Eli Crane R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

3. Yassamin Ansari D vs. (Jacob Parkman R) (Harris 69%)- Safe D

4. Greg Stanton D vs. Zuhdi Jasser R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

5. Elizabeth Lee D vs. Mark Lamb R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

6. JoAnna Mendoza D vs. Juan Ciscomani R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

7. Adelita Grijalva D vs. Daniel Butierez R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

8. Bernadette Greene-Placentia D vs. Abe Hamadeh R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

9. Dani Sterbinsky D vs. Paul Gosar R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

 

AZ current: 3 D, 6 R

AZ predicted: 5 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 5 D, 12 R

 

Predicted:

 

 6 D (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

11 R (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 5 Leans)

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Arkansas

 

1. Terri Yarbrough Green D vs. Rick Crawford R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

2. Chris Jones D vs. French Hill R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (R)

3. Robb Ryerse D vs. Steve Womack R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

4. James Russell D vs. Bruce Westerman R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

AR current: 0 D, 4 R

AR predicted: 0 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 5 D, 16 R

 

Predicted:

 

  6 D (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

15 R (7 Safe, 2 Likely, 5 Leans, 1 Tossup)