U.S. House Race Predictions

Here is the complete list of all 435 House races and how I have ranked them-

Runoffs are likely in a few Louisiana districts

Alabama

1. Jo Bonner R- Safe R
2. Open (Terry Everett R)- Tossup-R
3. Mike Rogers R- Safe R
4. Robert Aderholt R- Safe R
5. Open (Bud Cramer D)- Tossup- D
6. Spencer Bachus R- Safe R
7. Artur Davis D- Safe D

Alaska

1. Don Young R- Tossup- D

Arizona

1. Open (Rick Renzi R)- Leans D
2. Trent Franks R- Likely R
3. John Shadegg R- Leans R
4. Ed Pastor D- Safe R
5. Harry Mitchell D- Leans D
6. Jeff Flake R- Safe R
7. Raul Grijalva D- Safe D
8. Gabrielle Giffords D- Leans D

Arkansas

1. Marion Berry D- Safe D
2. Vic Snyder D- Safe D
3. John Boozman R- Safe R
4. Mike Ross D- Safe D

California

1. Mike Thompson D- Safe D
2. Wally Herger R- Safe R
3. Dan Lungren R- Likely R
4. Open (John Doolittle R)- Tossup D
5. Doris Matsui D- Safe D
6. Lynn Woolsey D- Safe D
7. George Miller D- Safe D
8. Nancy Pelosi D- Safe D
9. Barbara Lee D- Safe D
10. Ellen Tauscher D- Safe D
11. Jerry McNerney D- Leans D
12. Jackie Speier D- Safe D
13. Pete Stark D- Safe D
14. Anna Eshoo D- Safe D
15. Mike Honda D- Safe D
16. Zoe Lofgren D- Safe D
17. Sam Farr D- Safe D
18. Dennis Cardonza D- Safe D
19. George Radanonovich R- Safe R
20. Jim Costa D- Safe D
21. Devin Nunes R- Safe R
22. Kevin McCarthy R- Safe R
23. Lois Capps D- Safe D
24. Elton Gallegly R- Safe R
25. Buck McKeon R- Safe R
26. David Dreier R- Likely R
27. Brad Sherman D- Safe D
28. Howard Berman D- Safe D
29. Adam Schiff D- Safe D
30. Henry Waxman D- Safe D
31. Xavier Becerra D- Safe D
32. Hilda Solis D- Safe D
33. Diane Watson D- Safe D
34. Lucille Roybal-Allard D- Safe D
35. Maxine Waters D- Safe D
36. Jane Harman D- Safe D
37. Laura Richardson D- Safe D
38. Grace Napolitano D- Safe D
39. Linda Sanchez D- Safe D
40. Ed Royce R- Safe R
41. Jerry Lewis R- Likely R
42. Gary Miller R- Safe R
43. Joe Baca D- Safe D
44. Ken Calvert R- Safe R
45.Mary Bono Mack R- Likely R
46. Dana Rohrabacher R- Likely R
47. Loretta Sanchez D- Likely D
48. John Campbell R- Safe R
49. Darrell Issa R- Safe R
50. Brian Bilbray R- Leans R
51. Bob Filner D- Safe D
52. Open (Duncan Hunter R)- Safe R
53. Susan Davis D- Safe D

Colorado

1. Diana DeGette D- Safe D
2. Open (Mark Udall D)- Safe D
3. John Salazar D- Likely D
4. Marilyn Musgrave R- Leans D
5. Doug Lamborn R- Likely R
6. Open (Tom Tancredo R)- Safe R
7. Ed Perlmutter D- Safe D

Connecticut

1. John Larson D- Safe D
2. Joe Courtney D- Likely D
3. Rosa DeLauro D- Safe D
4. Chris Shays R- Tossup- R
5. Chris Murphy D- Likely D

Delaware

1. Mike Castle R- Likely R

Florida

1. Jeff Miller R- Safe R
2. Allen Boyd D- Likely D
3. Corrine Brown D- Safe D
4. Ander Crenshaw R- Safe R
5. Ginny Brown- Waite R- Likely R
6. Cliff Stearns R- Safe R
7. John Mica R- Safe R
8. Ric Keller D- Tossup- D
9. Gus Bilirakis R- Likely R
10. Bill Young R- Likely R
11. Kathy Castor D- Safe D
12. Adam Putnam R- Safe R
13. Vern Buchanan R- Leans R
14. Connie Mack IV R- Likely R
15. Open (Dave Weldon R)- Safe R
16. Tim Mahoney D- Likely R
17. Kendrick Meek D- Safe D
18. Ileans Ros-Lehtinen R- Leans R
19. Robert Wexler D- Safe D
20. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D- Safe D
21. Lincoln Diaz-Balart R- Leans R
22. Ron Klein D- Likely D
23. Alcee Hastings D- Safe D
24. Tom Feeney R- Leans D
25. Mario Diaz-Balart R- Leans R

Georgia

1. Jack Kingston R- Safe R
2. Sanford Bishop D- Safe D
3. Lynn Westmoreland R- Safe R
4. Hank Johnson D- Safe D
5. John Lewis D- Safe D
6. Tom Price R- Safe R
7. John Linder R- Safe R
8. Jim Marshall D- Leans D
9. Nathan Deal R- Safe R
10. Paul Broun R- Likely R
11. Phil Gingrey R- Safe R
12. John Barrow D- Likely D
13. David Scott D- Safe D

Hawai’i

1. Neil Abercrombie D- Safe D
2. Mazie Hirono D- Safe D

Idaho

1. Bill Sali R- Tossup-R
2. Mike Simpson R- Safe R

Illinois

1. Bobby Rush D- Safe D
2. Jesse Jackson Jr. D- Safe D
3. Dan Lipinksi D- Safe D
4. Luis Gutierrez D- Safe D
5. Rahm Emmanuel D- Safe D
6. Peter Roskam R- Likely R
7. Danny Davis D- Safe D
8. Melissa Bean D- Likely D
9. Jan Schakowsky D- Safe D
10. Mark Kirk R- Leans R
11. Open (Jerry Weller R) Leans D
12. Jerry Costello D- Safe D
13. Judy Biggert R- Likely R
14. Bill Foster D- Likely D
15. Tim Johnson R- Safe R
16. Don Manzullo R- Safe R
17. Phil Hare D- Safe D
18. Open (Ray LaHood R)- Likely R
19. John Shimkus R- Safe R

Indiana

1. Pete Visclosky D- Safe D
2. Joe Donnelly D- Likely D
3. Mark Souder R- Leans R
4. Steve Buyer R- Safe R
5. Dan Burton R- Safe R
6. Mike Pence R- Safe R
7. Andre Carson D- Safe D
8. Brad Ellsworth D- Likely D
9. Baron Hill D- Likely D

Iowa

1. Bruce Braley D- Likely D
2. Dave Loebsack D- Likely D
3. Leonard Boswell D- Likely D
4. Tom Latham R- Likely R
5. Steve King R- Safe R

Kansas

1. Jerry Moran R- Safe R
2. Nancy Boyda D- Tossup- R
3. Dennis Moore D- Likely D
4. Todd Tiahrt R- Safe R

Kentucky

1. Ed Whitfield R- Safe R
2. Open (Ron Lewis R)- Leans R
3. John Yarmuth D- Likely D
4. Geoff Davis R- Safe R
5. Hal Rogers R- Safe R
6. Ben Chandler III- D- Safe D

Louisiana

1. Steve Scalise R- Likely R
2. Bill Jefferson D- Safe D
3. Charlie Melancon D- Safe D
4. Open (Jim McCrery R)- Leans R
5. Rodney Alexander R- Safe R
6. Don Cazayoux D- Tossup- D
7. Charles Boustany R- Likely R

Maine

1. Open (Tom Allen D)- Likely D
2. Mike Michaud D- Safe D

Maryland

1. Open (Wayne Gilchrest R)- Leans R
2. Dutch Ruppersberger D- Safe D
3. John Sarbanes D- Safe D
4. Donna Edwards D- Safe D
5. Steny Hoyer D- Safe D
6. Roscoe Bartlett R- Likely R
7. Elijah Cummings D- Safe D
8. Chris Van Hollen D- Safe D

Massachusetts

1. John Olver D- Safe D
2. Richard Neal D- Safe D
3. Jim McGovern D- Safe D
4. Barney Frank D- Safe D
5. Niki Tsongas D- Safe D
6. John Tierney D- Safe D
7. Ed Markey D- Safe D
8. Mike Capuano D- Safe D
9. Stephen Lynch D- Safe D
10. Bill Delahunt D- Safe D

Michigan

1. Bart Stupak D- Likely D
2. Pete Hoekstra R- Safe R
3. Vern Ehlers R- Safe R
4. Dave Camp R- Safe R
5. Dale Kildee D- Safe D
6. Fred Upton R- Safe R
7. Tim Walberg R- Leans D
8. Mike Rogers R- Safe R
9. Joe Knollenberg R- Tossup-D
10. Candice Miller- Safe R
11. Thad McCotter- Safe R
12. Sander Levin- Safe D
13. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D- Safe D
14. John Conyers D- Safe D
15. John Dingell D- Safe D


Minnesota

1. Tim Walz D- Leans D
2. John Kline R- Likely R
3. Open (Jim Ramstad R)- Tossup- D
4. Betty McCollum D- Safe D
5. Keith Ellison D- Safe D
6. Michele Bachmann R- Tossup-R
7. Collin Peterson D- Safe D
8. Jim Oberstar D- Safe D

Mississippi

1. Travis Childers D- Likely D
2. Bennie Thompson D- Safe D
3. Open (Chip Pickering R)- Likely R
4. Gene Taylor D- Safe D

Missouri

1. Lacy Clay D- Safe D
2. Todd Akin R- Safe R
3. Russ Carnahan D- Safe D
4. Ike Skelton D- Safe D
5. Emanuel Cleaver D- Safe D
6. Sam Graves R- Leans R
7. Roy Blunt R- Safe R
8. Jo Ann Emerson R- Safe R
9. Open (Kenny Hulshof R)- Leans R

Montana

1. Denny Rehberg R- Safe R

Nebraska

1. Jeff Fortenberry R- Likely R
2. Lee Terry R- Leans R
3. Adrian Smith R- Safe R

Nevada

1. Shelley Berkley D- Safe D
2. Dean Heller R- Leans R
3. Jon Porter R- Tossup-R

New Hampshire

1. Carol Shea-Porter D- Tossup-R
2. Paul Hodes-D- Leans D

New Jersey

1. Rob Andrews D- Safe D
2. Frank LoBindo R- Likely R
3. Open (Jim Saxton R)- Tossup-D
4. Chris Smith R- Safe R
5. Scott Garrett R- Likely R
6. Frank Pallone D- Safe D
7. Open (Mike Ferguson R)- Tossup-D
8. Bill Pascrell D- Safe D
9. Steve Rothman D- Safe D
10. Don Payne D- Safe D
11. Rodney Frelinghuysen R- Safe R
12. Rush Holt D- Safe D
13. Albio Sires D- Safe D

New Mexico

1. Open (Heather Wilson R)- Tossup-D
2. Open (Steve Pearce R)- Tossup-D
3. Open (Tom Udall D)- Safe D

New York

1. Tim Bishop D- Likely D
2. Steve Israel D- Safe D
3. Peter King R- Likely R
4. Carolyn McCarthy D- Likely D
5. Gary Ackerman D- Safe D
6. Gregory Meeks D- Safe D
7. Joe Crowley D- Safe D
8. Jerry Nadler D- Safe D
9. Anthony Weiner D- Safe D
10. Ed Towns D- Safe D
11. Yvette Clark D- Safe D
12. Nydia Velazquez D- Safe D
13. Open (Vito Fossella R)- Likely D
14. Carolyn Maloney D- Safe D
15. Charlie Rangel D- Safe D
16. Jose Serrano D- Safe D
17. Eliot Engel D- Safe D
18. Nita Lowey D- Safe D
19. John Hall D- Likely D
20. Kirsten Gillibrand D- Leans D
21. Open (Mike McNulty D)- Likely D
22. Maurice Hinchey D- Safe D
23. John McHugh R- Likely R
24. Mike Archuri D- Likely D
25. Open (Jim Walsh R)- Likely D
26. Open (Tom Reynolds R) Leans R
27. Brian Higgins D- Safe D
28. Louise Slaughter D- Safe D
29. Randy Kuhl R- Tossup-R

North Carolina

1. G.K. Butterfield D- Safe D
2. Bob Etheridge D- Safe D
3. Walter Jones Jr. R- Safe R
4. David Price D- Safe D
5. Virginia Foxx R- Likely R
6 .Howard Coble R- Safe R
7. Mike McIntyre D- Likely D
8. Robin Hayes R- Tossup- D
9. Sue Myrick R- Safe R
10. Patrick McHenry R- Likely R
11. Heath Shuler D- Likely D
12. Mel Watt D- Safe D
13. Brad Miller D- Likely D

North Dakota

1. Earl Pomeroy D- Likely D

Ohio

1. Steve Chabot R- Tossup- R
2. Jean Schmidt R- Leans R
3. Mike Turner R- Safe R
4. Jim Jordan R- Safe R
5. Bob Latta R- Safe R
6. Charlie Wilson D- Safe D
7. Open (Dave Hobson R)- Likely R
8. John Boehner R- Safe R
9. Marcy Kaptur D- Safe D
10. Dennis Kucinich D- Safe D
11. Open (Stephanie Tubbs Jones D)- Safe D
12. Pat Tiberi R- Safe R
13. Betty Sutton D- Safe D
14. Steve LaTourette R- Leans R
15. Open (Deborah Pryce R)- Tossup-D
16. Open (Ralph Regula R)- Tossup-D
17. Tim Ryan D- Safe D
18. Zack Space D- Likely D

Oklahoma

1. John Sullivan R- Safe R
2. Dan Boren D- Safe D
3. Frank Lucas R- Safe R
4. Tom Cole R- Safe R
5. Mary Fallin R- Safe R

Oregon

1. David Wu D- Safe D
2. Greg Walden R- Safe R
3. Earl Blumenauer D- Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D- Safe D
5. Open (Darlene Hooley D)- Likely D

Pennsylvania

1. Bob Brady D- Safe D
2. Chaka Fattah D- Safe D
3. Phil English R- Leans D
4. Jason Altmire D- Likely D
5. Open (John Peterson R)- Safe R
6. Jim Gerlach R- Likely R
7. Joe Sestak D- Likely D
8. Patrick Murphy D- Leans D
9. Bill Shuster R- Safe R
10. Chris Carney D- Tossup-D
11. Paul Kanjorski D- Tossup-R
12. John Murtha D- Tossup-D
13. Allyson Schwartz D- Safe D
14. Mike Doyle D- Safe D
15. Charlie Dent R- Likely R
16. Joe Pitts R- Safe R
17. Tim Holden D- Safe D
18. Tim Murphy R- Likely R
19. Todd Platts R- Safe R

Rhode Island

1. Patrick Kennedy D- Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D- Safe D

South Carolina

1. Henry Brown R- Likely R
2. Joe Wilson R- Safe R
3. Gresham Barrett R- Safe R
4. Bob Inglis R- Safe R
5. John Spratt D- Safe D
6. Jim Clyburn D- Safe D

South Dakota

1. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin D- Likely D

Tennessee

1. Open (David Davis R)- Safe R
2. Jimmy Duncan R- Safe R
3. Zach Wamp R- Safe R
4. Lincoln Davis D- Safe D
5. Jim Cooper D- Safe D
6. Bart Gordon D- Safe D
7. Marsha Blackburn R- Safe R
8. John Tanner D- Safe D
9. Steve Cohen D- Safe D

Texas

1. Louie Gomhert R- Safe R
2. Ted Poe R- Safe R
3. Sam Johnson R- Safe R
4. Ralph Hall R- Safe R
5. Jeb Hensarling R- Safe R
6. Joe Barton R- Safe R
7. John Culberson R- Likely R
8. Kevin Brady R- Safe R
9. Al Green D- Safe D
10. Mike McCaul R- Likely R
11. Mike Conaway R- Safe R
12. Kay Granger R- Safe R
13. Mac Thornberry R- Safe R
14. Ron Paul R- Safe R
15. Ruben Hinojosa D- Safe D
16. Silvestre Reyes D- Safe D
17. Chet Edwards D- Likely D
18. Sheila Jackson-Lee D- Safe D
19. Randy Neugebauer R- Safe R
20. Charlie Gonzalez D- Safe D
21. Lamar Smith R- Safe R
22. Nick Lampson D- Leans R
23. Ciro Rodriguez D- Likely D
24. Kenny Marchant R- Safe R
25. Lloyd Doggett- D- Safe D
26. Michael Burgess R- Safe R
27. Solomon Ortiz D- Safe D
28. Henry Cuellar D- Safe D
29. Gene Green D- Safe D
30. Eddie Bernie Johnson D- Safe D
31. John Carter R- Safe R
32. Pete Sessions R- Safe R

Utah

1. Rob Bishop R- Safe R
2. Jim Matheson D- Likely D
3. Open (Chris Cannon R)- Safe R

Vermont

1. Peter Welch D- Safe D

Virginia

1. Rob Wittman R- Safe R
2. Thelma Drake R- Leans R
3. Bobby Scott D- Safe D
4. Randy Forbes R- Safe R
5. Virgil Goode R- Likely R
6. Bob Goodlatte R- Safe R
7. Eric Cantor R- Safe R
8. Jim Moran D- Likely D
9. Rick Boucher D- Safe D
10. Frank Wolf R- Likely R
11. Open (Tom Davis R)- Likely D

Washington

1. Jay Inslee D- Likely D
2. Rick Larsen D- Likely D
3. Brian Baird D- Safe D
4. Doc Hastings R- Safe R
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers R- Safe R
6. Norm Dicks D- Safe D
7. Jim McDermott D- Safe D
8. Dave Reichert- Tossup-R
9. Adam Smith D- Safe D


West Virginia

1. Alan Mollohan D- Safe D
2. Shelley Moore Capito R- Likely R
3. Nick Rahall D- Safe D

Wisconsin

1. Paul Ryan R- Safe R
2. Tammy Baldwin D- Safe D
3. Ron Kind D- Safe D
4. Gwen Moore D- Safe D
5. Jim Sensenbrenner R- Safe R
6. Tom Petri R- Safe R
7. David Obey D- Safe D
8. Steve Kagen D- Tossup- D

Wyoming

1. Open (Barbara Cubin R)- Tossup-R


Predicted Total:

250 Democrats
185 Republicans

14 seat net gain for Democrats

Now, I realize that conventional wisdom holds that Democrats will gain more than 14 seats this year, and that will probably even be the case, but I wanted to predict each individual race and that is the figure I came up with.

So, after all this is settled, I will be able to see how close I am both on the turnover total and on the total number of individual races.