Maine U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 69 Days Until Election Day

Maine U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Tossup (R)

 

You know, in a couple of high profile Georgia races, the Republican nominees for Governor and U.S. Senate are named Jackson and Collins. Over in Maine, the Senate race will be contested between Jackson and Collins. Just a little fun tidbit there, because there is definitely much to discuss.

 

Maine is the only state with a Republican seat up this year in a state that Donald Trump lost. If there is a wave for Democrats this would be expected to be perhaps their best pickup opportunity, To be sure, there is a definite decent chance for a blue pickup in Maine, and probably a better one that existed several weeks ago, but the party has far less of a good thing going here than might be expected to be the case. Some of that is due to their own drama and some of it is due to the survival skills of Senator Susan Collins.

 

Back in 1996, the Republican Collins won an open Senate seat, making a quick political comeback jut two years after she finished in third place in a two way Gubernatorial election. Maine has a history of liking moderate Republican female Senators and Collins went on to win a series of easy reelections. While definitely a Republican, Collins has indeed been one of the more moderate Republicans on Capitol Hill, and one of the last surviving relics of the kind of politician who used to be common in New England. In 2020, a Presidential election year, Collins looked to be highly vulnerable in a state that was expected to vote blue overall. She trailed her Democrat opponent that year in just about every poll and the state now had ranked choice voting, which might work even more against her. I wound up believing the conventional wisdom and on here, said the contest "Leaned" Democrat. Collins won 51-42. The polls were wrong. It was definitely her closest call, but still a decisive win. Many people were shocked. For all the national issues working against her party in Maine that year, the Senator had her own brand of political independence and won crossover votes.

As 2026 approached, it was clear that if Collins did not run this seat would almost surely fall to the Democrats. If she did, she could expect another serious challenge. Now at the age of 72, I was a bit surprised she is running again, but clearly being a Senator means a lot to her. Collins has recently confirmed that she has a medical condition that causes some shaking in her body and voice but says it does not affect her ability to do her job. Democrats nationally have definitely soured on Collins, citing her votes in favor of Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh and how she has not stood up as firmly to Donald Trump, in either term, to their satisfaction. It has been a running gag to say that Collins is "concerned" about various things on the right but never goes farther than that.

 

The whole story is more complicated. For one thing, Collins voted to convict Trump in his second Impeachment trial. Not a whole lot of Republicans did. She also voted against the confirmation of some Trump nominees, such as Pete Hegseth. However, she did vote in favor of Robert Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, and for me, those actions alone were enough to let me at least become agnostic on whether or not she should be defeated. Since she has crossed Trump on several occasions though, many in MAGA definitely hate her. In spite of that, somewhat amazingly, she was not challenged in a primary this year. Even Trump and Vice President JD Vance have been downright conciliatory in how they talk about her. Trump clearly hates anybody who is not totally loyal to her but Senate leaders have stressed to him that she is their only hope to holding on to Maine and perhaps the Senate itself. If she were to lose this year, you can expect to see Trump completely unload all his frustration about her.

 

With the Senate map very much at the forefront, Democrats in Washington D.C. tried to devise a plan to stop Collins from winning another term. The state's two Democrats serving in the U.S. House declined to run. Some lesser known candidates got into the race, but party leaders, including Senator Chuck Schumer recruited term-limited Maine Governor Janet Mills to run. Mills, who is in her late 70s, did not really appear to want to be a Senator but stood up to take on this race thinking about the need to win a Senate race and stand as a roadblock to Trump's agenda. It looked like things were lined up for the two women to face off in November, but Maine Democrats, especially the liberal activist types seemed pretty opposed to the idea. Mills was behind a primary opponent in the polls, and that did not appear to be a fluke, as the polls kept getting worse for her. More so, the general election polls showed she might even fare worse against Collins than this particular candidate who was to her left. For whatever reason, Maine Democrats wanted no part of their Governor and in late April she suspended her campaign, although she would remain on the June primary ballot.

 

The sudden new political phenomenon in Maine was 41 year old Democrat Graham Platner. The Marine veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan claimed to be an oyster farmer and gave off the kind of tough talking populist blue collar vibe that so many on the left thinks their party needs in order to win back white male voters. In fact, Platner grew up in an affluent family and his farming operation's only customer seemed to be his mother's restaurant. Platner caught on though with left-wing activists around the country and won endorsements of such people as Bernie Sanders and many more. 

 

Platner had a very questionable personal history though, far more than can really be gotten into here. He owned up to having had a lot of issues related to what he experienced in war and in conjunction with alcohol. He did not really state everything though, claiming that the worst stuff was already out there. It was not. For one thing, Platner had a Nazi image tattooed on his chest, which he got overseas while serving in the military. He claimed he did not know what the skull and crossbones image symbolized until very recently. Then, as an active Senate candidate, he got it covered up with another design publicly. Others would eventually come forward to claim Platner did not know what the tattoo was a long time ago. The candidate denied any association with anti-Semitism but his left-wing politics, which of course involved a lot of opposition to Israel, was said to be laden with anti-Jewish dog whistles. The Nazi tattoo alone should have been enough for Democrats to realize they were dealing with someone who was at best, a very troubled individual who might not be worth the political risk for a race they needed to win.

There was a lot more though. Platner used to be big on Reddit where he would say some truly crazy stuff and things about women and gays that if said by a Republican would be unforgivable. Democrats forgave him though and claimed he was a different person now and it could all be overlooked. Platner spoke about how he would take joy in raping a home intruder but "not in a gay way." There was also the matter of the woman to whom he was recently married going to the campaign to tell them that her husband had actively been trying to get together with numerous women.

 

As the primary got closer, Democrats worried about what else might be coming. Republicans seemed to know more was coming and were hoping Platner would be sticking around. Some in the party started to panic about making a mistake that could cost them the seat in November. Governor Mills reminded voters who was actually still on the ballot and would welcome their votes. Platner still won the primary over her 72-19. (Maine Democrats' 2024 U.S. Senate nominee, who was not really a factor in a race where most Democrats backed the incumbent Independent was third with eight percent.) The voters had spoken and it looked like Platner had prevailed. All sorts of party figures had to confirm that yes of course they were backing him now that the "voters had spoken." A few held out. Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, an unconventional politician himself and once but no longer a populist hero,  openly took rhetorical shots at the man who hoped to join him in the Senate.

It all reminded me immensely of the position Republicans found them in 2016 when Trump was nominated for President. So many people lost their principles to fall in line and back someone whom they knew was not right for the job. The concept of hypocrisy and comparisons to Trump's takeover of the party would only magnify.

 

Platner was continuing to awkwardly insist in interviews and privately to fellow Democrats that nothing else was coming out that would be a distraction, but reporters were at work. First a woman whom Platner had dated said that he had on a few occasions been physically rough with her. The Platner campaign attacked her as a Republican and for some on the left that was enough to dismiss her charges in spite of the "believe women" mantra. Then, another woman who dated him, who was definitely a Democrat did a CNN interview in which she described being raped in her home by an intoxicated Platner. He continued to deny all of these allegations completely, but clearly the scandal had reached critical mass. His allies and former supporters dropped their endorsement. The party in Maine and nationally said they would no longer support him and called for him to exit the race. The clock to get out before the deadline was approaching. Many Republicans took great glee over these stories (ignoring the documented history of Donald Trump) while others rightly recognized it would be politically advantageous for Democrats to throw Platner to the curb. Even before the final stories broke though, the polls started looking worse for the candidate. At one point, he had been leading Collins in most general election surveys, even though many warned not to underestimate Collins,who continued to mostly avoid talking about her opponent, since he was doing such a good job of imploding on his own. Eventually though, he started to fall behind her and that was really the impetus for them to know Platner had to do. Again, it was not the Nazi tattoo or even anything else, it was looking like a potential loser against Collins.

 

Platner resisted but ultimately dropped out of the race in July. He would drag his feet a little bit on the paperwork, apparently trying to negotiate with the state party a role in picking a replacement nominee. The leadership of Maine Democrats though wanted no part of him at this point and refused to submit to any demands he might have been making. In the video message in which he withdrew from the race,he said he was innocent of all charges but was dropping out because he was no longer going to be supported financially or politically by the party. Some on the left would continue to defend him. In the statement, Platner blamed his fellow Democrats, the media, Israel, and everyone but himself, whether it was the sexual assault and violence he continued to deny or the impossible to ignore reality that he had been very dishonest about matters that would affect his campaign. Perhaps one day someone can make a documentary about Graham Platner's political hubris and eventual downfall. Even the liberal campaign advisors who basically found him out of obscurity and got him into this Senate race admitted that they did not do the proper vetting and that all the earlier warning signs should have been enough to stop working with him.

 

Democrats needed a new candidate to take on Collins fairly quickly. The party of course had just had a crowded Gubernatorial primary, complete with Ranked Choice Voting, and many of those runner-ups quickly called up their supporters and pivoted to a Senate race, which would be chosen by a party nominating convention, likely to be dominated by the same sort of progressive activists who had liked Platner. Some other candidates would run too and appear in television debates, including a transgender woman who was brutally mocked online by MAGA types over physical appearance and the weird rationale of saying being a songwriter made her qualified for the Senate. 

 

As the delegates started considering their choices a bunch of the candidates withdrew from consideration including  the third place candidate from the original primary, a more conventional candidate who had withdrawn from the original Senate primary and then lost a U.S. House primary in June. A wealthy brewery owner, who might have made the most sense for a general election, got out of the replacement sweepstakes just as he had a while back in the first primary. Gubernatorial runners up Shenna Bellows, the state legislature appointed Secretary of State and Dr. Nirav Shah, the state's onetime Covid response public face folded their campaigns before the convention met. In the latter's case, that came after Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth came forward to point out that Shah was unacceptable because of a scandal under his watch when he led the Illinois Department of Public Health several years earlier under a Republican Governor. (Sort of ironic since Duckworth faced scandal when she lead an Illinois department under Governor Rod Blagojevich.)

 

By the time Maine Democrats convened, just about a month ago, it had become very clear who they were going with. The candidate to take on Collins would be Troy Jackson, who had recently finished third overall after all the RCV in the Gubernatorial primary. Jackson had once been a Pro-Life Republican, but became a Democrat and moved to the left. Like Platner, he had a blue collar image, (although probably far more real in this case.) Jackson had been a logger and would go on to serve as the President of the Maine Senate for six year ending in 2024. In his one previous federal race, he had gotten absolutely creamed in a 2014 Democrat Congressional primary. In his run for Governor, Jackson had been endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and was thought of as being part of an unofficial ticket with the Senate candidacy of Platner. Now, in replacing Platner, with another candidate popular among the left, those primary voters can at least claim that they got mostly what they wanted. I have liked to joke that Jackson definitely does not have a Nazi tattoo but perhaps a Hammer and Sickle tattoo. Hey, at least the Soviets were on our side in World War II.

 

Are Democrats better off with Jackson than Platner in the general election? Yes, I think that is clearly the case, but damage has been done. I do not happen to think Jackson is the strongest possible candidate they could have chosen. Republicans have also been digging into his life. While not legally married, Jackson does have a longtime domestic partner with whom he shares two kids and the woman happens to be his second cousin. Rudy Giuliani was once married to a cousin, but that was several wives ago. Furthermore though, a 1988 police report resurfaced from when Jackson was 19 in which the girlfriend/cousin said he pushed her around. He also punched a man that night and paid a $50 fine. Far more recently, in 2021 as Senate President, he admits he got angry and threw a water bottle at his fellow Democrats. These Bernie Bros definitely seem to sometimes share some attributes. Whenever Platner would speak about Susan Collins when he was still a candidate and before that of Janet Mills when she was, there seemed to be some sexism under the surface.

 

Considering the current political state of the country in the second term of Donald Trump, there is no doubt that Susan Collins has her work cut out for her. She is going to have to be more aggressive in going after Jackson than she has any opponent before while at the same time stressing her opposition to Donald Trump on some high-profile matters and hoping that whatever MAGA voters in the state exist, will swallow hard and still show up and vote for her. That can be a definite highwire act. Recently, she did the right thing and voted to not confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General.

 

At the moment, polls out of Maine are showing a very narrow lead for Jackson, but I think this race is a clear Tossup. One can never forget that the 2020 polls all showed Collins behind, perhaps even by a solid margin, and when the dust settled she won by 9 points. There is a story this week that Graham Platner is talking to supporters and apparently is willing to see them write in his name on the general election ballot at the expense of his supposed ally Jackson. Maine does have RCV for the Senate general election, but if Collins takes over 50 percent to begin with, it's all moot. Any attempt to dilute support from the Democrats' current nominee, and the person representing them on the ballot would be harmful to them. Another more moderate Democrat would probably win this race this year, but I just have a hard time seeing Jackson get quite across the finish line. For now, I am giving a slight edge to the incumbent, who beat tremendous odds in her last race.

What do I want to happen in this race personally? It is complicated. I admit that as a staunch NeverTrump conservative, Republicans deserve to lose as many elections as possible this year. However, some Democrats are just not acceptable. There are probably a few that are specifically worse than Troy Jackson, but he is someone way too far to the left for my taste and I have to at least consider the positive attributes of Susan Collins (who frankly is also to my left.) There is something a bit off-putting about how so many on the left attack Collins as if she is "history's greatest monster."

 

Collins voted to convict Trump at least one out of the times she did. While she voted to confirm a couple horrible person in the Trump Cabinet, she did vote against others. I wish she would have done even more to oppose Trump over the past decade, but she has at least been the only truly consistent Senator in either party on the matter of Supreme Court confirmations. She voted down the line as I would have, in confirming the nominees of both parties, because elections have consequences, but at the same time voting on principle against Amy Coney Barrett because it was very hypocritical to put her through in the election year of 2020 when the Democrats could not do so in the election year of 2016. I do not think anybody should be put through during a Presidential election year. (For the record, Justice Barrett is probably along with Chief Justice Roberts, the two SCOTUS members whom I agree with the most. It is definitely not that she was unqualified or is a bad person.) 

 

So, after all the Platner drama and everything else, perhaps I do want to see Susan Collins win after all while Democrats find a way to take the Senate without this seat (or Michigan.) That probably cannot logically happen though, so maybe a Democrat House and a Republican Senate will be good enough at holding Trump in check his final two years. 

 

I am definitely not going to lose any sleep over whatever happens in Maine, but I am glad that Graham Platner is not going to be a Senator. I hope we never hear much from him again, while at the same time hoping he gets his life sorted out. He seems to need to do so. The whole situation involving him is a great reminder to ardent partisans on both sides that some things should matter more than party labels or the pure pursuit of power. At least occasionally, Senator Collins has lived up to that. Hopefully, she does it even more.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

9 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

40 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

 

Maine Event Delayed

 70 Days Until Election Day

The days keep counting down and pretty soon I am going to run out of all of them I need to finish this project and not have to do all the House predictions in a single day. So, starting tomorrow, I hope to have a long streak of ratting off the races. I have been writing too many details though lately for may of these and I just did not have the time to day to properly outline all the horrible aspects of Graham Platner that need to be said. 

Maine Governor- Race of the Day

 71 Days Until Election Day

 

Maine Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

This year, the Senate race in Maine has gotten a lot of headlines, and soon enough I will cover that, but there is also an electing pending for Governor of the state and the amount of candidates who ran was pretty staggering. Several of the contenders would go on to play a role in the Senate saga also. A primary was held in June and then there was the wait for ranked choice voting tabulations as Maine is the only state along with Alaska that currently has that somewhat crazy system in place.

For starters, Democrat Janet Mills is ineligible to serve a third term as Governor. In 2018 she won a three way contest for the job, as Independent candidates in Maine often play a significant role and then four years later she easily defeated her controversial Republican predecessor as Governor (who now will at the soon to be age of 78 potentially get elected to Congress from the Republican leaning Congressional district in the state.) For her part, Mills, who is now 78 herself was recruited to run for the U.S. Senate against a vulnerable incumbent Republican. However, whether it was her age or her establishment backing, Mills failed miserably as a Senate candidate. She basically dropped out of that race, and then when the frontrunner was besieged by scandal, hoped to have somewhat of an another opportunity. She still lost big though and her political career will be ending. The fact that she fell so flat in 2026 among Maine Democrats might be a sign that her tenure as Governor might have been far from perfect and people could be looking for change. 

 

For the Democrats, Congressman Jared Golden, a politically promising young moderate who represented the Republican leaning district did not run for Governor, nor did he run for the Senate, or even reelection. Numerous Democrats did though including Angus King III, an energy executive whose father served two terms as an Independent Governor of Maine and has currently been serving in that capacity as one of Maine's Senators, caucusing with the Democrats. Another scion of Maine politics in the field was Hannah Pingree, whose mother represents one of Maine's Congressional districts, and declined to run statewide this year herself, as she has the past several cycles, after one previous unsuccessful Senate bid. Hannah Pingree, when she was quite young politically, served in the Maine House, culminating in a couple of years as Speaker. She then entered the private sector and would serve as an aide to Governor Mills.

 

While King only took eight percent in the primary, Pingree was second with 23 percent. In third place with 21 percent was Troy Jackson, a one time Republican, turned liberal Democrat backed by Bernie Sanders. With a background as a logger, the blue collar Jackson had served as President of the Maine Senate before he was term-limited. In fourth place with 21 percent was Shenna Bellows, the Secretary of State, which in Maine is appointed by the legislature. Bellows was the Democrats' nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 when she lost in a landslide. The first place primary finisher with 27 percent was Nirav Shah, a physician and the son of Indian immigrants. Before service in the health policy field during the Biden Administration, he became known in Maine as the person at the point for the state's Covid response and apparently became popular there because of his press conferences during the pandemic. Before that, he had served as the Illinois Director of the Department of Public Health under a Republican Governor. A Legionnaire's Disease outbreak in in the state that caused deaths led him to have his time there end under a scandal and investigations. Apparently though that did not prevent him from gainful important employment in Maine. (As as Illinoisan, I really do not even remember him from the time.)

 
Shah's small plurality first place showing would certainly not be enough in a state where nominations are decided by RCV. By the third round, Pingree moved ahead of him and by Round 4, Jackson's supporters had gone to Pingree and she won the nomination over Shah 56-44.

 

Even more Republicans ran for Governor. Among those who reached double digits was Garrett Mason with 11 percent. The former State Senate Majority Leader had finished a distant second in the 2018 primary for Governor. Then with 20 percent was businessman Jonathan Bush, a nephew and cousin of a couple of my favorite Presidents, and the brother of one-time Access Hollywood interviewer Billy Bush. Jonathan Bush ran as a "disruptor" and while not necessarily claiming to be MAGA tried to present himself as a bit of a Maine version of Donald Trump. It seemed clear that many in the party would look at his last name and rule him out immediately. Also at 20 percent, just ahead of Bush was former fitness company CEO Ben Midgley. The first place finisher was a candidate who was probably considered more to the right than the other names just mentioned. Bobby Charles, an attorney with a lengthy resume that included a couple years as an Assistant Secretary of State in the George W. Bush Administration took 38 percent, easily leading the field. Maine Republicans seemed less willing to participate in Ranked Choice Voting, as Charles even told them not to. The margins did not change a huge amount until the seventh round when Charles beat Midgley 60-40. Bush had moved into second at some point until he was out in Round 6.

 

An Independent candidate is also on the ballot after deciding not to run as a Republican. Rick Bennett is currently in his second distinct stint as a State Senator, having become an Independent not long ago. He first joined the Maine legislature in 1990 and had been State Senate President in the year 2002. Later he chaired the Maine Republican Party  Bennett had passed up previous chances to run for Governor but finished third in a 2012 GOP primary for U.S. Senate. Additionally, a State Representative serving as a Democrat also became an Independent and prepared to run for Governor but failed to make the ballot. Bennett will be a choice in November though and could appeal to moderates who think Charles is too conservative and Pingree too liberal. Polls are only showing him in high single digits though which means he does not have enough to have a chance to win but can definitely play spoiler, especially since Maine does not use RCV for Gubernatorial general elections. (Adding to the confusion it is used for federal general elections.)

 

Polls this summer seem to be showing a solid lead for Pingree over Charles. Maine Republicans likely did not nominate their best possible general election candidate (while the quality of Maine Democrats and some of their choices will be a story for another day.) I think this race should probably be considered fluid though depending on how well Bennett might do. 

 

Maine is overall a blue state with one smaller section that is heavily so coexisting with the larger rural part of the state which has gone more heavily Republican in recent years, and which is a bigger story regarding the Presidential Electoral College. The result of the Senate race and one of the Congressional districts will get far more national coverage on Election Night than the race to replace Janet Mills, but it sure looks like the daughter of a sitting Congresswoman is well on the path to become Governor.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

9 D (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

15 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

 

Louisiana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 72 Days Until Election Day

 

Louisiana U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Decisions by elected officials definitely have consequences. When Senator Bill Cassidy joined a handful of his colleagues in voting to convict Donald Trump early in 2021 in his second Impeachment trial, he likely did not expect Trump would remain on the political scene or that Republican voters would remain supportive of him. Thus, Cassidy saw his political career come to an end the next time he was on the ballot, despite a concerted effort to try to get back in MAGA's good races.

 

While once a Democrat, as many Louisiana Republicans once were, Cassidy, a physician, was elected to the Louisiana Senate in 2006 and the U.S. House in 2008. In the strong Republican year of 2014, he took an incumbent Democrat Senator into a runoff and then as expected took the seat from her in that runoff. Cassidy's 2020 reelection was basically a non-event politically. Recently, Louisiana election laws have changed that put the voting more in line with other states (although some old rules apply this year in the districts that have been changed by Republicans to win more seats, as part of a widespread effort in red states) . There is no longer a statewide jungle primary where he would just need to advance into a top two for a runoff where maybe Democrats would be willing to support him against a MAGA Republican. He would have to find a way to advance into the final two of a May primary, just to try to hope to get into a June Republican runoff, where he would race even longer odds. As it is, he never got that far.

Cassidy said he voted to convict Trump as a matter of conscience and despite others who found themselves in the same position retiring or being defeated, decided to seek reelection in a red state. The Senator has maintained a largely conservative voting record but faced much scrutiny over his role as Chairman of the Senate Health Committee and the nomination by Trump of longtime Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr to be HHS Secretary. As a doctor, Cassidy voiced concerns over Kennedy's longstanding opposition to vaccines but said he received assurances on the matter and he voted for the confirmation. As to be expected, Cassidy was played and Kennedy has not acted the way he said, leaving the Senator both upset and helpless over the whole situation, which he could have prevented.

 

Needless to say, Trump was intent on seeing Cassidy lose in 2026 and several Republicans entered the field. Several of these candidates, who had either run for statewide office before or held local office, dropped out of the race, some for other contests, after Trump endorsed a candidate he recruited into the race. For whatever reason, he did not seem satisfied with any of the other Republicans who were challenging Cassidy at the time.

 

In 2020, when she was 39, her husband Luke Letlow a businessman and former Congressional staffer won a December runoff to win an open U.S. House seat in a Republican district. During the course of that campaign though, Luke Letlow contracted Covid, and died later that month at age 41 before he could ever be sworn in to Congress. His widow Julia was left to raise their two young children ( I learned today she got engaged at the White House late last year) and also decided to run in the special election for that House seat. She had never run for office before but has a Ph.D and a career in university administration including for a medical school. Easily winning that special election in 2021, Julia Letlow has been a reliable vote for Trump in Congress. Early in 2026, Trump posted his endorsement of her for the Senate, before she announced a candidacy, but it was clear at that point that it was something she had agreed to do.

 

Only one other major Republican remained in the race along with Cassidy and Letlow and all three had the title doctor and had jobs related to the medical field. Also a physician, John Fleming was elected as Louisiana State Treasurer in 2023. Before that, he had served eight years in Congress before finishing in fifth place in a 2016 jungle primary for a U.S. Senate seat. He then held a couple of relatively minor posts during Trump's first term. Fleming positioned himself as the true Trump conservative in the race and looked competitive in the polling. but there would only be two spots in the inevitable runoff. Letlow finished first on the Saturday primary with 44 percent and then Fleming took 28 percent over Cassidy who took 25 percent and was eliminated. Cassidy conceded that night, taking some shots at Trump along the way and did not take sides in the runoff. His supporters may have either stayed home or split their vote, but the heavily favored Letlow won the nomination over Fleming in late June by a 57-43 margin.

 

That same day, Democrats also held a runoff for their nomination, although whomever emerged would be a major underdog in reliably conservative Louisiana. All prominent Democrats in the state, including recent Governor John Bel Edwards did not appear to even seriously consider a run. A former Edwards aide Nick Albares did run with his ex boss's support but finished third in the primary with 26 percent and eliminated. Two African-American candidates advanced to the runoff in a state party where black voters play a major role and during a year in which many feel they have been disenfranchised over the loss of a Congressional district that was meant to elect a black Representative. In May, Jamie Davis, a farmer who had served on something called the Tensas Parish Police Jury and who was an unsuccessful candidate for a State House seat in 2023 took 47 percent. A data scientist and political consultant named Gary Crockett took 26 percent. The state party apparently was supporting Davis and he took 80 percent in the runoff.

 

This looks like a race that should be Safe Republican. Letlow certainly has a lot of edges, but in a midterm election like this for an open seat, after the incumbent lost a divisive nomination battle, there are a lot of things to consider. Davis appears to be a gregarious candidate and his background as a farmer and a populist pitch could appeal to some who have lately been voting Republican A poll released last month, while from a Democrat firm, showed the Republican only ahead 41-37 with 22 percent undecided. It will be interesting to see if anything comes out to show this race is truly competitive. Right now, it would be a huge shock if Letlow is not able to be promoted to the Senate by a double digit margin.

 

As for the outgoing Senator Cassidy, he has been doing a lot of interviews lately and with his political career behind him has been increasingly critical of Trump and other Administration members. He even got into a shouting match with the President at a closed door Senate conference meeting,. Still though, Cassidy was recently the deciding vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General. Old habits may die hard but regrets can live on. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

8 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

39 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Day Off

 73 Days Until Election Day

Louisiana holds its primaries on Saturday, but on this Saturday, I am delaying talking about their Senate race, but I should get to it tomorrow. 

Kentucky U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 74 Days Until Election Day

Kentucky U.S Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Mitch McConnell has served seven terms in the U.S. Senate rising to become one of the most influential Senate leaders in American history. Now, the Republican is not seeking to continue the career in Washington D.C. that began over 40 years ago. He is 83 years old and has been riddled with health issues over the past few years. I definitely have criticism of McConnell, especially over how he handled Donald Trump at some points over the past decade, but I cannot help but have enormous respect for what he accomplished in his life and in government. Anybody, even those who are Never Trump, who wanted conservative judges on the federal bench owes a lot to McConnell, even as I think recognize the complete hypocrisy he demonstrated in regards to Supreme Court nominations in Presidential years, depending on which party was in the White House.

The fact though that the left and MAGA both seem to hate McConnell means he has done something worthwhile in my view. Most of the story about him over the past several weeks has been his absence from the Senate after a severe medical incident in his home, He is said to be recovering back there currently, after spending many weeks hospitalized and frankly I think the whole thing has gotten too much coverage. McConnell is a back bench Senator at this point in his career. He is no longer the Republican Leader, and most importantly, he is not running for reelection. As long as he is alive (ridiculous conspiracy theories aside), he does not really owe anything to anyone. His staff is handling business and he does not hold an executive position or a decision making responsibility. Yes, he has missed votes, but the only people who really have a right to complain about that are the Republican Senators who needed his vote (assuming he would give it to him, as he has shown a bit more independence the past couple years. The main thing though is that McConnell is not seeking another term. He literally has months left in the job. If he were running again, of course it would be absurd, considering his health, but he is not. The Senator has never been one to rush to show his face to cameras. He has always preferred to work behind the scenes.  Yes, his constituents deserve to know basic information. He is an old man, who deals with the aftermath of having polio as a child which led to lifelong mobility issues,  McConnell is a proud person and it is probably extremely difficult for him to face his current physical reality and the end of his long career.  Clearly, he does not want to dwell on these matters publicly. Let him be.

Of course, this election is about the future and who will be Kentucky's new Senator. Democrats, who love to pile on McConnell, will likely find more at fault with the voting record of his replacement than with the outgoing Senator. Despite having a Democrat as Governor (who with his own 2028 ambitions has been trying to involve himself in the issue of McConnell's absence), Kentucky is a very Republican state and barring an earthquake of tremendous political magnitude, will send another one to the Senate next year.

 

All sorts of Republican candidates were on the May primary ballot including some guy named George Washington. There were really three major candidates though. All of them had ties to McConnell and were even proteges of him in some cases, but all rejected that association as the Senator is quite unpopular in MAGA circles because Trump hates him. For a while, it looked possible that the outsider campaign of businessman Nate Morris could break through. A former McConnell fundraiser, Morris ran as a very MAGA candidate who had many negative things to say about the current Senator. He also seemed to appeal to the fans of Rand Paul, Kentucky's other Senator, whom Morris also had supported, including for President. Adding to his wealth is his marriage to a member of the Mosbacher family, of establishment Republican days of lore. Many figures on the political right endorsed Morris, but Donald Trump went with a different candidate. There was somewhat of a fear that if Morris had been nominated, the seat would be less certain. Trump apparently worked out an agreement in which Morris withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump's choice for the seat, while being publicly mentioned as someone who was soon to receive a federal appointment. Morris has since been nominated to be Ambassador to Colombia. In pre-Trump days since a naked political quid pro quo in which a person was promised a government job in exchange for exiting a political race would be seen as highly illegal, but under this Administration, it seems like anything goes. Ironically enough, the Trump White House may now also want Morris to challenge Rand Paul in a 2028 Senate primary.

 

His exit left two major candidates, not long before the primary. The Trump endorsement went to Congressman Andy Barr who in 2012 defeated a Democrat incumbent in a battleground race, and avenged a loss for that seat two years earlier. In 2018, Barr won a competitive reelection by three points against Democrat Amy McGrath, but has won with ease in all other cycles. During his time in the House, Barr's wife passed away suddenly at age 39 due to a heart issue. About three years later, the Congressman remarried. (Trump has raised concerns about widowed Republicans getting remarried quickly as it relates to others, including a different Kentucky Congressman, but of course has had no issue with Barr. Seen as a mainstream Republican at one point, Barr inched closer to Trump as he harbored statewide ambitions, and with the endorsement, it seemed to pay off.

First though, Barr had to get past Daniel Cameron, who had served one term as Kentucky's Attorney General, before losing as the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2023. In that year's primary, Cameron ran with Trump's endorsement, but his loss in Kentucky to a Democrat, after Trump had campaigned for him in the general election, likely soured that relationship. Cameron is a genuine McConnell political protege who worked for the Senator and was seen perhaps as the person he would have liked to see succeed him one day. As a prominent black conservative, Cameron was heavily featured at the 2020 Republican National Convention. It was probably not a great idea though to try to launch a political comeback so soon after losing the race for Governor. Without Trump's support, he found it difficult to make much headway and Barr won the primary 61-31. Cameron has now suffered two major political defeats by the age of 40.

 

With a relatively standard issue Republican like Barr as the nominee, and with their strongest possible candidate Governor Andy Beshear thinking about a Presidential run and not willing to try a Senate bid, Democrats did not really have much of a chance of flipping this seat, but their primary result definitely would not help matters. Other Kentucky Democrats decided to sit it out to focus on next year's race for Governor.  Several Democrats did run though including an African-American female State Representative who finished a very distant third with just six percent of the vote.

 

The primary was a battle between two past Senate nominees. The winner, by a somewhat surprising 47-36 margin was Charles Booker, a now 41 year old former State Representative. The African-American Democrat from Louisville first ran for the Senate in 2020, shortly before the end of his brief two year term in Frankfort. In that primary, he lost 45-43 to Amy McGrath, whom we have already mentioned, and will get to again in a moment. Two years later, Booker easily won the party's nomination for the right to take on Rand Paul for the Senate. The Republican won 62-38. Booker ran again in the 2026 cycle despite clear evidence that he is probably too far to the left to be competitive in a general election.

 

Booker was acceptable enough though to Kentucky's primary voters in his party this year as he avenged his loss to McGrath six years earlier for the same seat. After her competitive 2018 House defeat to Barr, McGrath, the first female Marine to fly a combat mission took on McConnell in a race that many thought could be interesting. She definitely had a strong biography as a fighter pilot and and she stressed political moderation. Despite McConnell's overall low job approval numbers, the Senate Majority Leader defeated McGrath by 20 points, showing just how thoroughly Republican Kentucky really was, especially in federal races.

 

In an open seat race in a midterm election that could be bad for Republicans, the well-funded McGrath might have at least made some noise, theoretically the most against a divisive first time candidate like Nate Morris, back when it seemed he could win a Republican primary. Kentucky Democrats though, now largely dominated less by rural folks, and more by African-Americans and urban liberals in Louisville went with Booker this time. After three losses, this one in a primary, McGrath is probably done with politics for a while, and after a third loss this year, Booker might be also, (along with Republican Daniel Cameron.) In all this talk about people who have lost Kentucky elections, it is worth nothing that McConnell will be retiring undefeated.

 

Booker is too far to the left to have any sort of realistic chance of beating Barr, but there has not been any polling yet that I can find leading me to cautiously classify this as Likely Republican instead of "Safe." If nothing else, when the returns come in on Election Night, from Kentucky, the first state to report that will have a statewide federal election, we could look at the margins in some counties and get a hint of what the evening might have in store nationally.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

7 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

38 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Kansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 75 Days Until Election Day

Kansas U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican 

 

The last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas, Herbert Hoover was President. These days, Donald Trump is said to be concerned about comparisons to that particular predecessor, but it looks like the current White House occupant's approval numbers are indeed quite low. If there is to be a result in this state not seen since 1932, it would indicate one of the biggest midterm tsunamis of all time. Polls are currently showing a truly competitive race, but for now at least, I will still be surprised if the unthinkable happens.

 

This is actually the third straight cycle this Senate seat has been looked at as competitive. In 2014, a longtime incumbent had lost his political luster at home and was facing an Independent opponent, who did not have the baggage of being on the ballot in Kansas as a Democrat. People thought they race might be close, and even as a Democrat flipped the Governorship that year, the Senate seat stayed Republican by a double digit. Six years later, the seat was open, Republicans had a crowded primary and Democrats nominated a woman who had recently been a moderate Republican. This was a nearly 12 point win for the party that always wins Kansas Senate election.

 

That is how Roger Marshall, a physician also known as "Doc" joined the Senate. In 2016, he had been elected to Congress from the "Big First" Congressional district, which seems to always promote its Member statewide to the Senate. Marshall had been considered a mainstream Republican during his House tenure, but since becoming a Senator, he has seemingly moved more towards the MAGA wing of the party and has been far more of a lightning rod than Kansas's Senators have typically been. He was a strong advocate of overturning the results of the 2020 Presidential election and espoused conspiracy theories related to the Covid pandemic. Last year, while holding a Town Hall meeting in rural Kansas, he was confronted with questions from angry voters about Trump Administration policies. Marshall then proceeded to cut the meeting short and abruptly walked out to surprised reactions and boos. Democrats vowed they would have the final say on Election Day, but Republicans nationally have tended to not be too concerned about what might happen in Kansas.

 

Not long ago, Marshall was on CNN and claimed that it would be acceptable for Iran to keep some weapons because other countries also have them. What exactly was he suggesting? That it would be ok for Iran to fire weapons against Israel and or the United States? Since then though, any sort of "deal" with Iran that Trump has touted over and over again continues to fall apart. The bottom line to all this is that Marshall is seen as someone who will defend or make excuses for Trump at any turn. In the primary on August 4, the Senator took 80 percent against an unknown opponent who claimed to have always been a Republican, but bragged about being a "RINO" and taking policy positions in opposition to what Marshall and Republicans have supported. If nothing else, it shows that there are at least some Kansas Republicans who might not be satisfied with the incumbent.

 

Democrats had a very crowded primary. Term limited Governor Laura Kelly was urged by some to run, but she took a pass. So did the state's lone Democrat in the U.S. House, Sharice Davids, even after she seemed to be considering the idea. All told, 11 candidates ran in the primary. A wealthy businesswoman took only six percent and finished in seventh place. A State Senator and former Congressional nominee only received a few hundred votes more.

 

The candidates who finished in double digits were an Afghan War veteran  and counterintelligence specialist named Noah Taylor who took about 14 percent and Christy Davis, a former USDA official for Kansas who finished second, also with 14 percent. The winner of the primary with 35 was a late surging candidate who got into the race relatively late but has a very interesting profile. 

The pastor of a large Methodist group of churches in the Kansas City area, the Reverend Adam Hamilton originally considered challenging Marshall as an Independent, but eventually decided to run as a Democrat. As some other states have nominated far left candidates for federal offices this year, enough Kansas Democrats felt comfortable picking a white pastor as their nominee. (A pastor of a large black church in Georgia has of course been elected as a Democrat in that swing state.) Hamilton (no relation apparently to the original Treasury Secretary and Broadway sensation) is someone who might have cross-party appeal. He has made a point of saying that he has been the pastor of many Republicans over the years and continues to do so and that he believes in the concept of people coming together over common principles. Such a thing is important in America,but a lot of people on both sides of the partisan divide these days have become more inclined to resist that spirit of unity.

Of course as he runs as a Democrat, it would be nearly impossible for Hamilton to depart on party orthodoxy on such issues as abortion and he has taken a pro-choice stance that likely differs from many of his parishioners and other Christians in the state. On the broad spectrum of issues though, he presents himself as "leading from the center." Needless to say, Marshall and his Republican allies nationwide will spend much time and money portraying Hamilton as a radical leftist or worst.

 

Since the primary, the buzz has been increasing that the Democrat might be just the kind of candidate who could win this year in Kansas and this race is getting more notice than the open Gubernatorial office which has been held for two terms by a relatively moderate Democrat. There has not been any real independent polling yet on this race but a couple of surveys by Democrat firms are showing a statistical tie between Marshall and Hamilton. Interestingly enough, no Republican internal polls have been released to confirm a larger lead for the incumbent. The usual issues of the economy, cost of living, and foreign policy are at play, but in a state that relies heavily on agricultural exports, the Trump tariffs also get extra attention.

 

This seat is in play because Democrats have nominated a strong, non-traditional candidate, who might be running even stronger if he were on the ballot as an Independent in a one on one race. It is also competitive because the Republican seems to be less of an appealing personality than would be optimal for someone seeking reelection. However, a streak of 94 years is a long time. This can all be revisited down the homestretch but the advantage has to point for now to anybody running for statewide federal office in Kansas as a Republican. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

37 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Kansas Governor- Race of the Day

 76 Days Until Election Day

Kansas Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

In a year where Democrats seemingly have so many opportunities to pick up offices currently held by Republicans, this race may be the best example of the reverse, certainly in regards to Gubernatorial races. As tough as a political year it may be for Donald Trump's party, Democrats may have just run out of time in Kansas, as two term Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited and a successor will be chosen. Still though, one cannot completely ignore the electoral accomplishment of her winning twice in heavily red Kansas, or the real intraparty divides among Kansas Republicans that led to those wins. A general election for Governor is now set up in the Sunflower State and there does not appear to be any current polling. Furthermore, political watchers are starting to talk about the U.S. Senate race in that state having turned surprisingly competitive. Democrats may not truly be totally out of luck this year, but it would take a huge stroke of it to turn back conventional wisdom once again.

 

Governor Kelly has maintained pretty strong approval ratings during her eight years as Governor. It remains to be seen whether that can be transferable. As it is, her endorsed candidate to succeed her recently lost the Democrats' primary, indicating that political power can be fleeting. It is still a very different situation though than the last elected Republican Governor of Kansas, whose conservative experimentation in government proved to be unpopular and leading the way for Kelly to win in 2018 with 48 percent against a very divisive Republican opponent. By that time, Sam Brownback had received a federal appointment was no longer Governor. In 2022, Kelly won a second term with just under 50 percent. The Lt. Governor who had succeeded Brownback as Governor very narrowly lost the Republican primary back in 2018, setting the party's November defeat. This year, now former Governor Jeff Colyer a doctor, decided to try to make a political comeback in the race but did not file for the office after Donald Trump endorsed another candidate. 

 

With Kelly, who not long ago was the Chair of the DGA, currently  term limited this year and not attempting to run for the U.S. Senate at age 76, Democrats faced a primary. In Kansas, candidates for Governor select their choices for Lt. Governor in advance of the primaries, and two run on a ticket together, hoping to he nominated in early August. The current Lt. Governor of Kansas did not seek the job, but joined with Kelly in endorsing the candidacy of State Senator Ethan Corson, and he appeared to be a moderate in the mold of the incumbent Governor and the frontrunner for the nomination. That support would not be enough though as Corson and his runningmate, a local Chamber of Commerce President named Renee Duxler finished second in a three way primary with 39 percent of the vote, nearly 10 points the winning ticket. Kansas Democrats once again picked a woman to run for Governor and the nomination went to Cindy Holscher, also a State Senator, Her runningmate is State Representative KC Ohaebosim, a Nigerian-American. His actual first name is Kelechi but going by KC in a state that includes Kansas City is probably not a terrible idea. The Mayor of Overland Park and his physician runningmate finished in a distant third place with 13 percent.

 

Based on what I can find, Holscher does not seem incredibly more liberal than Corson and her campaign website seems a little more bare boned. She was seen as more populist though and apparently made an issue late in the campaign of running against the development of data centers in the state. These issues seemed to resonate most with Democrats and helped her to a primary victory.

 

The Republican field was more crowded even as Trump endorsed State Senate President Ty Masterson and his his partner, fellow State Senator Jeff Klemp. Perhaps Trump felt an affinity for Masterson, because the one time construction industry executive once filed for bankruptcy, a procedure the President is familiar with. While Trump has lost with some Gubernatorial this cycle, that was not the case earlier this month as Masterson easily won the primary with 43 percent. Financial services executive Philip Sarnecki and former Wichita Schools Board Member Joy Eakins, who ended her longshot bid for Governor to join this ticket, finished in second place with 22 percent. In third place with 14 percent was Vicki Schmidt, the statewide elected Insurance Commissioner, and perhaps the favorite of the moderate wing of the party. She ran with Kansas Farm Bureau President Joe Newland. The elected Secretary of State Scott Schwab, running with State Representative Ken Rahjes was next with just 11 percent and there were also three additional losing tickets.

 

With the political dust settled in a state historically hit hard by the Dust Bowl, we can perhaps surmise that both parties did not go with their most electable candidates for Governor. For whatever reason, Governor Kelly found it appropriate to go all in on backing a different candidate than Holscher. There is now party unity among Democrats, but the new nominee will have to try to convince voters that she is in the mold of Kelly and it would be risky to return state government to the party that produced the administration of Sam Brownback. In theory, Masterson should be helped by his party label and a natural desire in the state to return the Governor's Office to that party after eight years of a Democrat. Unity among Kansas Republicans has harder to achieve though in Gubernatorial elections, including a couple in the early 2000s, as some have come to see the state party as being too far to the right, Kelly was considered a balance during her time as Governor, but now Republicans will try to portray Holscher as too far to the left.

 

I will be interested to see the first flow of general election Gubernatorial polls from Kansas. Right now, it looks like the Senate race might make more national headlines, considering what is at play nationally and what a huge upset it would be if a Democrat were to win there for the first time in many generations. A Republican should win an open seat Kansas Gubernatorial race though, even in a bad year for the party. If they fail to do so again, it will be very telling.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

8 D (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

14 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

Iowa U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 77 Days Until Election Day

Iowa U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (R)

 

Democrats might have nominated some unnecessarily risky candidates for Senate in other states this year, which will impact their chances of victory, but they seemed to have made the shrewdest primary decision this June in Iowa. Right now, there is not any polling data that justifies me saying that their nominee will win in heavily Republican Iowa, but the race definitely looks like a Tossup. Yesterday, I discussed the Gubernatorial race which I have forecast as a Tossup lean to the Democrat. Can the same thing happen in a federal election? While there is always the possibility of ticket splitters, I think it will eventually be most likely that the same party will win both races. Thus, I may change my prediction in this one or the Governor race. The bottom line though is that that it speaks volumes that Democrats are as much in the game in 2026 as they clearly are in a state that once looked solid for Republicans. To think, all the Democrats who plan to run for President starting next year, really have no strategic reason to make a lot of trips to Iowa. Talk about a missed opportunity for the party, but at the same time, perhaps a blessing for this year's nominees.

 

The Gubernatorial race changed when Iowa's female Republican Governor somewhat surprisingly decided not to seek another term. A very similar thing is happening in this race. Republican Joni Ernst, Iowa's first female Senator is not seeking a third term. She was a bit of an upset winner in 2014, and fended off a tough challenge to win a second term in 2020, but she had come to be considered a rising political star in the Republican Party, even as she dealt with a messy divorce and revealed some personally difficult stories about her life as a young woman and what later on happened in her marriage.

 

There was a sense that Ernst could probably win another term but she started to be face cross pressures as Donald Trump returned to the White House. A military veteran herself, she appeared somewhat opposed to Pete Hegseth's nomination as Defense Secretary, citing some things he had said about women in the military, but she ultimately voted to confirm him and all of Trump's other picks. MAGA supporters were leery of Ernst and she certainly did not have many friends left in the state among Democrats. At a contentious 2025 town hall meeting in her state, a constituent claimed that Trump budget policies would cause people to die. The Senator responded, "Well, we are all going to die."  That set in motion the end of Ernst's career, at least for now, in elective politics. When he remarks went viral, she made some sort of cringe tongue in cheek video in a cemetery and that seemed to make it worse for her. In September of last year, less than three months after the town hall brouhaha, she announced she would not run again.

 

Immediately, some wondered whether this was good news for bad news for Iowa Republicans. The political decisions Ernst had been making indicated she might have had a tough time winning reelection but incumbency is typically a big deal. With the seat open, another female Republican entered the race, and would receive Donald Trump's endorsement. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, a telegenic blonde former local television news anchor now aged 43 won a high profile race for the U.S. House over a Democrat incumbent in 2020. She won by increasing margins in the next two general elections and all three victories were against female opponents. Trump's endorsement of Hinson largely cleared the field, but former State Senator Jim Carlin, a staunch conservative, who had challenged Iowa's longtime incumbent Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary, stayed in the race. This was another blow-out loss for Carlin, as Hinson beat him 74-26. Iowa Republicans had made their choice clear, but Carlin has not endorsed his former opponent, saying she did not have the appropriate values and he urged Republicans to not vote for her in November. It remains to be seen if people will listen to that, but even if a small number of Republicans do, it could be quite costly to Hinson.

 

For a time, Democrats had a wider field, but it would also winnow down by the time of the primary. It is worth nothing that the one prominent elected Democrat in the state, Auditor Rob Sand was already running for Governor. The one female Senate candidate for Iowa Democrats had to drop out after she was engulfed in controversy regarding how as a School Board Chair, she had hired someone to be the Superintendent who wound up being an illegal immigrant.

 

The two men who faced off for the nomination were 47 and 34. The older man would win, but Iowa politics is definitely taking a turn for the younger. While Senator Grassley, the current President Pro Tem of the Senate is 92 years old, all four major party nominees for Governor and U.S. Senate are in their 40s. 

 

In reality, there was not much of a policy difference between Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek, but they seemed to have different messaging and different kinds of endorsements. Wahls, a State Senator who had did a stint as Minority Leader, was backed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and other progressive voices from Iowa and beyond. Turek, a State Representative also had liberal support, such as Tom Harkin, the last Iowa Democrat to be a Senator, but was also the choice of Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, who viewed him as more electable. For one thing, Turek has an interesting life story. Born with spina bifida, he has used a wheelchair since he was a child and went on to a prominent career as a wheelchair basketball player and represented the United States on four Paralympic national teams, as well as winning many medals as a player in international events.

 

Wahls tried to make an issue out of the unpopular among the left Schumer and Turek's establishment support. Despite the clear backing from the New York Senator, Turek has not pledged publicly to support him as party leader. Going into the June primary, polls showed a lot of undecided voters and it was believed to be possible that either candidate could win. However, the result produced was a surprising 63-37 mandate for Turek. Obviously, the candidate and his team knew what they were doing and got out their vote. This result, especially being as decisive as it was, should be considered good news for Democrats in their general election hopes.

 

The polls right now show a very close race between Hinson and Turek. Both nominees won by wider margins than expected in their primaries based on the polls. This will be an expensive race determined by national issues. Can Democrats tie a young mother to Trump and "extremist" politics? Can Republicans portray a man in a wheelchair as a dangerous radical? In a very close race, could the Libertarian nominee play spoiler?

 

There is no doubt that Iowa has become a red state filled with the sort of voters who have been most prone to supporting Trump (including many former Obama voters.) All indications though are that Trump is nowhere near as popular as he was in 2024 and a lot of his voters, including farmers, may be quiet upset about agricultural tariffs and the prices of gas and fuel with all that has transpired in Iran, that they likely were never expecting.

 

This contest is pretty much for the taking of a Democrat pick-up. I think it will probably go blue before a couple of the other states that have been getting more attention. In mid August though, I cannot quite yet say that a Republican will lose. Conventional wisdom has to right now give the slightest of edges to Hinson. After the Iowa debates though and the projection of national trends, who knows? Stay tuned.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

5 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

36 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Iowa Governor- Race of the Day

 78 Days Until Election Day

Iowa Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

Iowa happens to be the home of the Chicago Cubs Triple-A affiliate. Not so long ago, a man named Pete Crow-Armstrong was playing for the Iowa Cubs and anticipating his inevitable Major League Baseball debut. Now, PCA might add the initials MVP to his name and he has been thrilling Cubs fans this summer, including what happened tonight, causing me to get caught up in the excitement and making me delay my coverage of the Iowa Gubernatorial race. However, I am here to get that job done.

Speaking of the Hawkeye State, a place that has gone from a political battleground to pretty solidly red over the past several cycles, there seems to be major opportunities for Democrats to break through in this midterm election. This is somewhat ironic, considering the DNC wants no part of Iowa holding its traditional "First in the Nation" caucus, instead rewarding the early contests to other states, including Michigan in the Midwest, all in places where Democrats might not have anywhere near as positive headlines as what might come out of Iowa.

 

Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was eligible to seek a third full term and most believed she would. However, the first female Governor in Iowa history announced last April that she would not run and would be leaving office after nearly a full decade as Governor. Reynolds had established herself as a political force in her state, but she endorsed Ron DeSantis for the 2024 Presidential nomination and campaigned with him. The Republican voters in the state thoroughly rejected the suggestion and supported Donald Trump that year, and he had some negative things to say about Reynolds. Perhaps that was enough to get her thinking about a future life in the private sector. Iowa's first female Senator, also a Republican is similarly not seeking reelection this year.

 

With both the Governorship and the Senate seat open in this Republican friendly state, a lot of party members had a lot of options. All of the other statewide Republican officials declined to run for either of those two spots though. Instead, the Gubernatorial frontrunner became Congressman Randy Feenstra. The State Senator was elected to the House in 2020 from the most conservative district in the state. When Trump endorsed his candidacy, he seemed to be well on his way to a general election.

 

However, this would not happen, as Trump suffered a relatively rare Republican primary endorsement defeat. In a five-way June primary, Feenstra was edged out 38-37 by an outsider candidate who presented himself as further to the right. In his first run for office, Lahn, an investment executive and farmer about 40 years old came out of political obscurity to win support among conservative activists as well as people in the non-traditionally conservative MAHA movement. For whatever reason, Feenstra's record on Capitol Hill and in elective office worked against him and he might have taken victory for granted during the campaign. Adam Steen, a former state agency director finished third with 14 percent. While Feenstra had been the establishment choice, even with Trump's backing, conservative activists were just not sold on him and divided their support among several candidates, and Lahn was in position to benefit. After the primary, Donald Trump claimed he had been misled in endorsing Feenstra and noted that the winner Lahn was probably more MAGA. Clearly, this was a case of Trump unwilling to accept responsibility or association with any loss.

 

While Iowa's elected statewide officials on the Republican side did not run for Governor, the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Iowa did and he would be nominated without a challenge. Rob Sand, who just turned 44, holds the job of State Auditor. In 2018, the attorney defeated a Republican incumbent  In 2022, he wisely passed on an opportunity to run for Governor, and instead won reelection as Auditor by a very narrow margin. Any sort of statewide win for a Democrat in Iowa these days has to be considered impressive and Sand deserved to be looked at as a rising political star in his state as he prepared to run for Governor. Democrats in the other 49 states perhaps wished he would have run for Senate instead, as the most electable member of his party in the Iowa.

 

With the general election set, both candidates had to select their Lt. Governor running-mates. Sand selected Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer, a fifth generation farmer. These days, there are not many Democrat tickets in many states that consist of two white males. The 2022 Democrat nominee who lost by a lot was a black woman, which of course was also the case for Presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Lahn selected State Representative Derek Wulf, also a fellow farmer. I find the ticket name of Lahn-Wulf to be sort of funny.

 

One would expect an Iowa Republican to be in a good position to win a fifth straight general election. In fact going back to the early 1980s, Democrats have won very few of those particular elections. It seems though that this would be a close race regardless of which Republican won the nomination. While Sand has a history of being involved in liberal politics as a very young man (which was once not a political killer in Iowa), he has clearly demonstrated the ability to get crossover votes for his lower office and has appeal as a non-ideological populist, which is a pretty rare feat for a Democrat today. Clearly, Republicans will try to tie Sand to radical candidates and policies in other states.

 

Some suggest that since this is looking to be a bad midterm year for Donald Trump, that Lahn might be in a stronger position because Trump did not originally back him. That might make some sense if Lahn was the kind of Republican who pointed out differences he had with Trump. Instead, in the primary, he seemed to indicate he was more faithful to the MAGA movement and now, Trump has seemingly agreed.

I do not know all the dynamics of this race, but the Republican Lahn just seems to come across as a bit weird. It is a big political jump to go from 38 percent in the primary to enough votes to win a general election. If this race winds up being truly tight, the presence of the Libertarian nominee might play a role, and seemingly he would take more votes from Lahn.

This is still a race in Iowa after all and no Democrat is going to look like a solid favorite, regardless of national trends. The polls thus far have tended to show the Democrat Sand leading the Republican Lahn by a few points. Political junkies though cannot forget the final weekend of the 2024 race when the supposed "gold standard" of Iowa polling showed that Harris might have a chance to beat Trump in the state, which would have clearly meant she was on her way to a big national win. That was not the case. Trump won by 13 points.

 

My sense is that this race is a Tossup for now, and that Lahn might have a hard time uniting all factions of the Republican Party in a general election. In a different political career, the Republican label might be enough to pull through regardless but with all the issues of tariffs affecting Iowa agriculture and all the political drags that seem to be affecting Trump's numbers and that of all Republicans, Iowa is ripe for an upset, at least in the Gubernatorial race. This will be a very interesting political state to watch over the next few months on a range of fronts. If Rob Sand pulls off a win, he will become someone to be studied and what Democrats across America could learn from him. If not, people will say, "well, it was Iowa after all."

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

8 D (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2Tossup), 5 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

14 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup), 13 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup) 

Illinois U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 79 Days Until Election Day

 

Illinois U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Yesterday, I wrote that the Illinois Gubernatorial race was receiving less attention than any I could remember. The race for U.S. Senate is now, in the post=primary stage, receiving even less. The Senate election held in 2022 also was barely a blip in the Chicago media market, but this is particularly unusual for it being an open seat race. Everyone expects the Democrats will hold on to this seat in what has become one of the most solidly blue states in the country Right now though, there has not been any general election polling. Considering the open nature of the seat and a competitive and contentious primary for Democrats, I cannot quite justify calling this race "Safe" for them, at least not yet. 

 

Dick Durbin has been around Illinois politics since the 1960s and first sought office 50 years ago. In 1982, he was elected to the U.S. House and in 1996 was elevated to the U.S. Senate. In four reelections, he was never truly challenged in a serious way, even as the Downstate politician was not necessarily a beloved figure in the Chicago media market. Now, Durbin is retiring after so many decades on Capitol Hill. One had the sense he would have been included to run for yet another term, even at the age of 81 for many months he kept coy about his intentions. His standing among younger party activists had begun to take a hit. Once with ambitions of becoming Majority Leader, the Illinoisan was held in check by Chuck Schumer, his former Capitol Hill roommate, though he had been his party's Whip for many years now. While Durbin had been reliably liberal his entire Senate tenure, he was viewed as having become too accommodating and not forceful enough. He had endorsed some Democrats for other offices that were not the favorites of the progressive wing and wound up on the losing side. Furthermore, Durbin started to show some modest signs of slowing down with age. The Senator, who was once his junior colleague Barack Obama's biggest political booster, would not endorse a primary candidate to replace him and it seems like if he had done so, that candidate's opponents would have used it against them as a sign of not being sufficiently on the side of change.

 

When Durbin announced his retirement in May of last year, a lot of ambitious Democrats seemed anxious to jump at a chance to win a nomination that would probably be paramount to a general election victory. One candidate who wanted to run and had released questionable polls showing her in a good position was Congresswoman Lauren Underwood. With other African-American women in the race or looking at it though, the young politician decided to stick with her House district. Most of the statewide officials in Illinois decided to run for reelection in 2026, thinking they would have better political options in the future.

 

A total of 10 Democrats would appear on the March ballot, but for the duration of the campaign, the race only really focused on three, all of whom were people of color, looking to join Asian-American Senator Tammy Duckworth from Illinois. Two Members of the U.S. House delegation ran as did the Lt. Goveror, and as it turned out, and as we are seeing especially among Democrats this cycle, is that service in state government seems to be rewarded than being a current Member of Congress, as so many Democrats are down on those their party has sent to Washington.

 

Almost immediately after Durbin's announcement, Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton got into the race. The position of Lt. Governor is not exactly a crucial one in Illinois, but Governor JB Pritzker, who is running for a third term this year, was quick to endorse her for this position. (Stratton is not related to the white Republican who was Governor of Illinois generations ago and had a government building in Springfield named after him.) This Stratton is an African-American female from Chicago's South Side. An attorney, she was recruited to challenge a State Representative in a 2016 primary, after he had run afoul of party bosses, With the backing of then President Obama, plus Michael Madigan, the all powerful Speaker of the Illinois House (who has since been convicted of crimes and is now in federal prison), Stratton won that seat. Less than two years later, Pritzker was looking for a runningmate to join him on a primary ticket. Stratton was a good speaker and offered gender and racial balance and thus, she is currently serving her seventh year as Lt. Governor without making too much news in her own right from that post. She decided she would rather be a U.S. Senator than hope that Pritzker would wind up as President or wait for a chance to run for Governor in her own right.

 

Congresswoman Robin Kelly was a somewhat late entry into the field. Also an African-American who represented parts of the South Side, she had been Chairman of Illinois Democrats for a wile, before Pritzker acted to replace her with someone more to his choosing. While Kelly had a lot of respect among Illinois Democrats, her Senate campaign never really took off, even as she tried to appeal to her party's base by taking some issues to the left of where she might have previously considered comfortable. Ultimately, she finished third with 18 percent.

 

Leading up to the final days of the primary, and perhaps even going into that evening, many expected the nominee to be Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi from the Chicago suburbs. He was the candidate I cast my primary ballot from, even as it continues to feel otherwordly for a one-time staunch Republican like myself to pull a D ballot. Frankly, Raja was the least worst of the options for Senate, so I voted for him and tried to get others to do the same. I was also motivated to vote on some county races, again for least worst options, and where I live, there is no reason to vote for Republicans, both because I despise what has happened to my former party, and because whomever is nominated by them has no chance to win anyway.

 

Krishnamoorthi, who came to America as a child, has such a long name, his political ads always just ask voters to "call me Raja", was a fundraising juggernaut. He raised tons of money for his campaign, much of which from national Indian-American sources, and was omnipresent on the television airwaves (and YouTube ads) for months. In retrospect, maybe too much. Raja (since that is what he wants people to call him) had tasted political defeat before. In 2010, he narrowly lost a primary for State Comptroller and in 2012, he lost a Congressional primary to Duckworth. When she moved on to the Senate in 2016, Raja won the battle to succeed her (Duckworth would endorse Stratton in this primary.) On Capitol Hill, Krishnamoorthi gained a reputation as a smart and serious lawmaker, but also quite politically ambitious and rarely one to turn down opportunities to appear on television. He also started raising money for a future statewide race quite early and some on his political staff said he was overly aggressive and harsh on them to get him dollars as part of that process, which contrasted with the nice guy image he put across publicly.

 

For months, polls showed Krishnamoorthi leading the Senate primary field. After all, his ads were frequent and people remembered his name. While he would certainly never be confused with a Republican, he was definitely the most moderate among the three major candidates and appeared to the one most willing to be able to work with Republicans. He also refused to take some positions that might be used against him in a general election or that he would have to walk away from as a Senator. While Stratton insisted that ICE must be abolished, Raja said that Trump's ICE needed to go, but that it could be reformed. When Stratton came out for a $25 per hour minimum wage, Raja sensibly said that such a thing would not be possible.

 

The Stratton campaign was widely criticized for being fairly invisible for much of the campaign but late in the game, Pritzker's SuperPAC started spending heavily on the airwaves in support of the Lt. Governor he endorsed for the primary, and that seemed to make a huge difference. The ads were very critical of Krishamoorthi as expected, trying to tie him somehow to Donald Trump claiming he had "MAGA donors." At the same time, the Stratton campaign put out a memorable and some though cringe worthy ad in which voters literally said "F Trump"  The tv ads featured bleeps while the internet version did not. Clearly, this was the kind of anti-Trump energy Democrats were looking for. Krishamoorthi responded by going negative on Stratton, trying to tie her to Madigan, and the campaign got ugly. Kelly was targeted in some ads too by Stratton, since she was seen as potentially taking votes away from the Lt. Governor. Eventually, Super PAC ads attacking all three candidates were everywhere. Late in the campaign, Stratton made some headlines when she declared that Jesse Jackson Sr. had decided to endorse her right before he died. His children claimed otherwise, and Stratton seemed to claim she was misinformed. There are a few other examples of the Stratton campaign not looking exactly ready for prime-time, but in a a low-profile Illinois general election, that hardly matters too much.

 

With the exception of one Buddhist Senator from Hawai'i, no person identifying with a religion other than Christian or Jewish  has been elected in America as Governor or Senate. There are some high-profile people looking to break through this year in other states, but Raja Krishnamoorthi would not find himself as America's first Hindu Senator. Stratton beat him in the primary 40-33. Even those like myself who thought she might have a chance to win, was surprised that it by more than a couple points. It is hard to argue that she would not be in this position without the organizational support and especially the money of the billionaire Pritzker. He chose her from the political backbenches to run on his ticket and then pushed her for Senate and spent heavily to help her come from behind and win a nomination. The Governor will hope especially that African-American female primary voters realize this when they are looking for a 2028 Presidential candidate to back.

 

Of course, there is also a Republican in this open seat race, although he might not have the money to run ads in Chicago. A six-way primary was won by Don Tracy with 40 percent of the vote. He probably had the most name recognition, but that is not saying much. Attorney Jeanine Evans finished second with 23 percent. Much earlier, more well known Republicans, such as Congressman Darin LaHood decided not to run for Senate or Governor, considering the political reality of Illinois.

Tracy is a lawyer and businessman from Downstate in his mid 70s and has been active in Illinois politics for a long time. He was considered a Democrat for many of those years and once ran unsuccessfully for the State Senate under that label. His sister in law, Jil Tracy, now a State Senator,  then a State Representative was the Lt. Governor candidate on an establishment supported 2014 primary ticket that lost narrowly, but would have won a general election that year. Four years before that, Don Tracy, finished a distant third in a Republican primary for Lt. Governor, the last cycle to feature a separate primary for that office. Tracy was appointed to a state government post under Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and then after the 2020 election became Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party. That is a pretty thankless task these days though and Tracy resigned before the 2024 general election. While the Illinois Republican establishment is nowhere what it used to be, those that remain did back Tracy in the Senate primary and that seemed to make the difference. If it were a more high-profile contest, someone would have run ads against him calling him a "RINO" and that could have caused him a lot of political difficulty.

 

The Republican nominee is not exactly smooth on the stump but is trying to position himself as a mainstream alternative to the very liberal Stratton. That will hold sway with some but probably not nearly enough in Illinois. Tracy is not claiming to be hardcore MAGA or anything like that, but he has supported Trump in the past, and thus will not get my vote. Since Stratton will win without my vote, I will not vote for her either. She is well too far to the left for my liking and I do not like some of her tactics in the primary or things she said about Israel during that race. I will have to consider write-in options. Nonetheless, unless there is a monumental development, Stratton will go on to become the second African-American woman elected to the Senate from Illinois.

 

More than likely, she will hold that job for more than a single term. Stratton will be a reliable vote for her party but the protege of JB Pritzker (whom she will clearly endorse for President) can hardly be expected to be any sort of political or legislative force on Capitol Hill, and those in the party who came to find Durbin underwhelming will probably say the same about her before too long. At least Raja Krishnamoorthi, whose career in elected office might now be over, would have been a reliable messenger for his party on the Sunday morning shows.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 35 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)