Tennessee Governor- Race of the Day

31 Days Until Election Day

Tennessee Governor

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

It appears near certain that Tennessee will this year will join the majority of states by electing its first female Governor, Both major party nominees are women and the heavy favorite is the one who has also been the first female U.S. Senator in Volunteer State history.

 

Republican Governor Bill Lee is unable to seek a third term, so the office is open in a state Democrats have not won since 2006. In fact, every Gubernatorial election since has been a landslide in favor of the Republican candidate. For several reasons, this year's race may produce at least a somewhat closer result, but few actually believe that Democrat Jeri Green, a Memphis City Councilwoman can win a general election.

 

At attorney, Green won a five way primary in August with 69 percent of the vote, as she was clearly the established favorite of her party for this race. While Green is white, African-Americans, as is the case in several other southern states, now play an outsize role in deciding primaries for Democrats. The second place candidate was a black woman named Carnita Atwater, but she took just 18 percent. She had taken 22 percent while finishing third out of three in the 2022 Gubernatorial primary and the next year, was way back in the pack of the field for Memphis Mayor, in what is the few remaining areas of Democrat strength in Tennessee.

 

On the Republican side, a lot of ambitious politicians likely wanted to run for Governor, but most deferred when it was clear that the state's senior U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn wanted the job. One of those who had considered running was the state's other Senator Bill Hagerty, and that might have made for an unusual primary situation, but he instead decided to seek reelection.

 

The primary was far from a cakewalk for Blackburn, a former beauty pageant contestant and businesswoman, She won with just 44 percent while Congressman John Rose took 33 percent. A State Representative named Monty Fritts, who was a self identified Christian Nationalist, and who held a number of other far right views, took the remainder of the vote which was approximately 23 percent.. Donald Trump did not make a primary endorsement.

 

Some were likely surprised that Blackburn only defeated Rose by a total of about 11 points (and frankly the showing for Fritts should have been concerning on its own.)  Both Blackburn and Rose are quite conservative so there was not a whole lot of ideological differences between the two main candidates. Rose, a former appointed state Agriculture Commissioner, came to Congress in 2019 and is 61 years old.  (He also happens to be 24 years older than his wife whom he has known since she was a child and married when she turned 21.) Blackburn is 74 years old. She also held a post in state government, followed by four years in the State Senate and then election to Congress in 2002. In 2018, she easily captured an open Senate seat over a former Democrat Governor who had been popular, showing just how Republican Tennessee had become. Her candidacy seemed to cause an incumbent Republican Senator, disliked by Trump, to not run again knowing he would face an uphill primary against the very MAGA Blackburn.  Two years ago, Blackburn had little trouble winning reelection against a somewhat nationally known female opponent, even as it was clear she had an interest in running for Governor instead of serving a six year term in the Senate.

 

Throughout her political career, Blackburn has been thought of as an effective and telegenic politician, while perhaps not exactly an intellectual powerhouse. She has leaned heavily into cultural issues and has been an unyielding supporter of Trump during her time in the Senate. There have also been whispers, some louder than others, that the Senator has maybe lost a step or two at her age. Holding the office of Governor is definitely somewhat of a different job than being one out of 100 Senators. For all the talk about potential cognitive decline seen during Joe Biden's Presidency, and what people say about Trump now (including his frequent bouts of falling asleep on camera), some of this may also be an issue for Blackburn as she is firmly in her mid 70s. She refused to take part in any Republican primary debates and is taking the same stance in a general election. Blackburn has seemed to be reluctant to interact with the media at all. This June, while in Tennessee a local reporter tried to ask her some questions and she awkwardly avoided answering any saying she was on "federal time." There was no such restriction under law that would have prevented her from speaking about state issues or her campaign for Governor.

 

I happen to believe that if Blackburn debated her opponent Green (or anyone else for that matter), it would raise a lot of concerns for voters about her capacity to do the job. Tennessee is heavily Republican though, so even in the current political environment, she probably is not going to be denied this electoral win. The citizens will then have to deal with her performance as Governor, for better or worse. Green is a credible candidate for Democrats but is probably considered too far to the left. The state has had a lot of political turmoil in recent years regarding fights in the legislature over gun control, which resulted in the expulsion of African-American legislators (who then promptly won their seats back) and a recent redistricting, supported by Blackburn, which will seemingly make the Congressional delegation 9-0 in favor of Republicans. There is definitely a lot of motivation for black voters in the state to express themselves in a statewide race, but there is probably a limit as to how far that can go. This week, there was a botched execution of a woman in Tennessee, who remains alive. Blackburn has said the state should bring back the electric chair instead of relying on lethal injection. The whole story is very disturbing, but frankly she may have a point about Ol' Sparky. Green is a former public defender who wants a full moratorium on the death penalty.

 

All sorts of Independent candidates wind up qualifying for the Tennessee ballot and there will be options for protest votes. The only two really being watched though is businessman David Hatley, who presents himself as a mainstream conservative alternative and former college professor Laura Pinkston, who says she is a moderate. In theory, either or both of them could take votes of people who do not like the ideological extremes of both parties, but seemingly Blackburn would have the most to lose in this scenario. A poll sponsored by a group backing Green had Hatley in double digits with 10 percent and Pinkston with two percent, while still showing Blackburn ahead of the Democrat 45-36. 

 

Without any non-partisan polling showing a competitive race, it is hard to say that this really is one, although it would not shock me if that were to be the case this year. With Blackburn largely trying to stay out of public view in the campaign there just may not be too many opportunities to convince voters they should avoid picking the Republican, as most have been doing for a while. 

 

If as expected, Blackburn is elected Governor, she will get to pick her replacement for the U.S. Senate. A lot of people will want the job, but I have a feeling that the Trump Administration might look at this opening as a way to find a new spot to someone they want to either reward for losing a race somewhere or they just want out of the Executive Branch, even if they do not have any actual ties to Tennessee. Almost certainly, Blackburn will go along with whatever Trump wants. Keep an eye on Pete Hegseth.

 

  

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

21 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

South Dakota U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

32 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

The last Democrat to win a Senate election in South Dakota did so in 2008, when a longtime Member of Congress was reelected to the upper chamber. Since then, the state has moved even more sharply towards Republicans at all levels of government. However, this race looks pretty competitive right now, and perhaps that is because a Democrat is not challenging the incumbent, but an Independent is. This is following the example this cycle of what is going on in Nebraska and Idaho, and what many Democrats wish what was going on in Montana.

Republican Mike Rounds is seeking his third Senate term. Before that, the home state junior colleague to Republican Senate Leader John Thune, had served two terms as Governor, and has the reputation of being a pretty mainstream Republican willing to work in a collaborative way. A few years back, Rounds admitted that Donald Trump had lost the 2020 election fair and square and Trump responded with outrage and said that he would never endorse Rounds again. He did not mean it. Trump did indeed endorse Rounds this cycle before a primary. Maybe Senator Thune had something to do with that. In June, the incumbent defeated businessman and Navy veteran Justin McNeal,who raised virtually no money by a 76-24 margin.

 

Democrats did not have a contested primary. The nomination went to Julian Beaudion, a businessman and former state trooper, who was a rare African-American political candidate in South Dakota. The party's nominee would not stay in the race too long though. In August, under pressure from the party, Beaudion dropped out of the race to help clear the way for an Independent challenger to Rounds that was viewed as being more viable in a general election.

 

Brian Bengs is an attorney and former professor who served in the U.S. Navy and retired as a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force. In 2022, Democrats nominated Bengs as their candidate for U.S. Senate and he lost to Thune by a massive margin of  70-26. Now, many are thinking and definitely hoping that the political environment is far different in a Trump midterm election than a Biden one, and even more so, than having an I next to one's name is far better electorally in the state than having a D.

 

Personally, I am a bit surprised that this race appears to have the dynamics it does. A lot of right-wing voters have never really liked Rounds and others probably think he has been around the political scene for too long. South Dakota though is extremely Republican state. Bengs must be a better campaigner than he was during his first race as a Democrat, People are definitely paying attention and apparently Rounds is refusing to debate his opponent. Recently, Bengs was doing a political advocacy event on Capitol Hill and got into a verbal confrontation with a protestor.

 

This definitely would have been a race I would have classified as "Likely Republican" and while they may indeed be inaccurate, there are some polls out recently that have to make me call this as a "Leans" race at the moment. For one thing, a Democrat sponsored survey from late August, that for whatever reason was just released this week, shows Bengs ahead of Rounds 51-44, an exact mirror image of the Republican lead in the race for Governor, which itself was pretty surprising in the closeness. If Bengs is really ahead by 7 points and at 51 percent, we can expect to see a momentous political turnover. I have my doubts that Bengs is up by seven. He may only be down by seven though which would be a story itself. I do think it would be that close if the challenger was running as an actual Democrat, although this poll also does show a competitive race between a Republican and Democrat for an open statewide Congressional seat. 

 

In September, the Bengs campaign did a poll which showed him only trailing 45-42. Internal polls are often too rosy for the person paying for them, but it cannot be totally ignored. Towards the end of September though, it looks like the Bengs campaign paid for a different poll, by a different company,  and that showed a six point lead for Rounds, including a 53-47 result when leaners were pushed.

 

All of this leads me to think that this somewhat unconventional race in South Dakota is a good deal closer than it was ever supposed to be, but that Rounds will probably pull it out, without the need for a very late night watching the returns come in. It would be very interesting to see if a non-partisan pollster will try to take a snapshot of what is going on in the state amid so much discussion of tariffs, gas prices, data centers, and a war with Iran. Once again, South Dakota is very Republican, but if things are close for the Senate in that Midwest prairie state, then things might be extremely dicey for nearby Republicans in places like Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

47 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

South Dakota Governor- Race of the Day

33 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

The last time someone was seeking their first election for Governor in South Dakota, the Republican only won 51-48 during a Republican Presidential midterm year. Could a similar close race happen this year, when things are far worse for Republicans? Not too likely I think. The last Democrat to win the Governorship in this state was way back in 1974. the longest such streak for one party dominance in the country.

 

An incumbent is running for a full term as Governor, and that is because Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden moved up to take the top job last year when Kristi Noem, who would have been term-limited, left in her second term to become Secretary of Homeland Security under Donald Trump. The one time Republican rising star, who changed her political tone, as well as many aspects of her physical appearance made a ton of headlines while in the Cabinet, but ultimately was sent away in what was essentially a firing. Now, she is headed for divorce court with her husband of 34 years, amid irreconcilable differences which might involve her thinly hidden longtime affair with Corey Lewandowski and his penchant for wearing giant fake breasts while chatting online with models.

 

The reality of South Dakota Gubernatorial politics may be somewhat less salacious but it was far from a given that cowboy hat wearing Governor Rhoden would have a chance to be in this job long. In fact, he looked like a distinct political underdog as a June 2026 primary approached. For a while, it was unclear he would choose to run. In South Dakota, candidates for Governor pick their runningmate for the general election, but some choose to make their selection public well in advance of the primary, and Rhoden was running alongside Tony Venhuizen, the man he had appointed to fill the vacant Lt. Governor slot. He had been a former chief of staff to both Noem and to her predecessor as Governor who was also Venhuizen's father in law.

 

Other candidates were running as well in what felt like an open office contest. One of them, who also happened to be have been the Chief of Staff to Venhuizen's father in law, Governor Dennis Daugaard, before him was Congressman Dusty Johnson. Considered more of a traditional mainstream Republican, he had been elected to succeed Noem as the state's lone House Member in 2018. Johnson was close to Congressional leaders, at least during the brief Kevin McCarthy era and was giving up a safe House seat to run for Governor, believing he was in a good position to win and get out of Washington D.C., like his colleague from North Dakota had done in 2024. The Congressman never selected a runningmate, but did have the endorsement of his former boss, Governor Daugaard early on, despite the fact his son-in law had been selected for Lt. Governor by Rhoden and would likely be running with him. 

 

Two other candidates were also in the race who were considered more to the right. They were State House Speaker who ran along with Karla Lerns, who held the position of State House Speaker Pro Tempore. Competing without announcing a choice for Lt. Governor was wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, a burly political outsider.

 

With four credible campaigns being undertaken, it looked like the contest could move on to a runoff for the first time in state history nearly two months after the first vote if nobody reached 35 percent. That is indeed what would happen and it looked possible that the sitting Governor would not even make it that far. Doeden finished first with 31 percent, Rhoden held on and advanced with 25 percent, over Johnson, the one time frontrunner, who received 23 percent, ahead of Hansen who had 21 percent. Clearly, the Republicans in South Dakota were pretty well split, but it was a massive loss for the establishment favorite Johnson. A lot of sitting Democrat U.S. House Members have fallen short in races for higher office this primary cycle and in this case, that happened to a Republican.

 

I cannot claim to understand all the dynamics that unfolded next, but it appears that Doeden, after his first place showing, then proceeded to run a poor campaign, where he came across as impulsive and not up to speed on some issues. Rhoden also seemed to find his footing as the rest of the party seemed to rally around him for the runoff. Even without a Donald Trump endorsement in this race, the acting Governor went on to a big 71-29 runoff landslide.  

 

Democrats had an uncontested primary. Dan Ahlers, who had served two years in the State Senate some time ago in between two separate two year stints in the State House become the nominee. In 2020, he had been the party's nominee for U.S. Senate and lost to a Republican incumbent by 32 points and then later because Executive Director of the state party. The runningmate of Ahlers is former State Representative Steven McCleerey, a farmer.

 

Ahlers seems to be a credible nominee for his party but South Dakota is about as reliably Republican as states get, at least in typical political environments. With each passing day though, some think that Republicans everywhere are facing massive headwinds and this might be particularly noticeable in midwestern farm states. Just yesterday, a Democrat released poll came out publicly which was apparently conducted in late August, which makes it fairly out of date by now Nonetheless, it shows some pretty shocking results that many find hard to believe in terms of South Dakota's federal races. At the same time, it shows Rhoden ahead of Ahlers by a 51-44 margin, which is the best news produced in the survey for Republicans by far. If the race was truly that competitive then, it is probably even more so over a month later. I do not see a 30 or even 25 point win for the Republican incumbent this year, but it would be extremely surprising if this race would finish in single digits.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

12 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

20 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

South Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 34 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

There is nothing that would probably be considered a greater embarrassment to Donald Trump in this midterm election than seeing the Republican Party lose this seat in South Carolina. If the polls are to be believed, that is a possibility. Reality and recent political history though still makes it at least somewhat of a longshot.

 

Six years ago, during a Presidential cycle where Trump was on the ballot, three term incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham was thought of being in a very tight race. His opponent was raising a ton of money from Democrats across the country and the political world was watching. Graham won by 10 points. Throughout his career in politics, Lindsey Graham never lost an election on which he was on the ballot, despite earning the enmity of Democrats, and also many Republicans, despite being well-liked by those who actually knew him.

 

Graham went through a variety of political identities and some of it may be best left to the psychological community to analyze. He definitely used to be one my favorite Senators, as I shared his positions and worldview on most issues. During a quixotic 2016 Presidential campaign he clashed viciously with Trump. Then, after Trump became President, and Graham's longtime friend and colleague John McCain died, the South Carolinian moved much closer to Trump seeming to relish in friendship and access. On the night of January 6, 2021, Graham took to the Senate floor and seemed to break up with Trump. That did not last long at all. While the Senator continued to at times express disagreement with the Trump Administration, he often went out of his way to flatter his former rival. The two men talked frequently and played golf together. Trump's support likely prevented the bottom from falling in on Graham's career, and maybe that is what it was always all about. Many on the right had long been leery of Graham and the idea that he was in favor of "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, or that he was a "warmonger." There is no denying that Graham, an Air Force attorney who served honorably himself, was extremely hawkish on matters of foreign policy, which is anathema to everything some in MAGA believe in, though pretty inline with Trump's decision to go to war with Iran this year.

 

Graham had faced tough primaries before, but had always managed to win the Republican nomination without a runoff. This June, the same thing happened, as the Trump endorsed incumbent won renomination with 57 percent of the vote against five opponents. A couple of announced candidates withdrew, only pretty late in the game, in order to try to make things tougher for Graham avoiding a runoff, but that hope was not meant to be. Finishing in second place with 27 percent was businessman Mark Lynch who presented himself as a much more conservative alternative to the man who had been on Capitol Hill since 1995.

 

After the primary, Lynch did not offer a formal endorsement, but the general election was on between Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, a telegenic pediatrician. She had run for Congress in 2022 and had taken 43 percent against incumbent Nancy Mace. In this year's primary, Andrews won 62 percent against two opponents. The second place candidate was Brandon Brown, a former collegiate official, who had also previously lost Congressional races. He took 30 percent, but it appeared that many of South Carolina's African-American Democrats went with Andrews believing she would be the best financed and most politically viable candidate against Graham. She did look like she could run a credible race, and there was always hope that enough people on the right would not show up for the incumbent, who was seen as more damaged politically than ever for a variety of reasons, but few expected she would beat him in conservative South Carolina.

 

In July, just after a month from the primary, as he was preparing to make one of his many appearances on Meet the Press, Senator Graham died suddenly of a heart condition at age 71. While the typical ghouls online from both ideological extremes said nasty things about him, many other Democrats and Republicans joined together to praise his service to the country. Graham will always be considered a complicated figure, in my view a tragic one, but one cannot doubt he loved his country.

 

Now, Republicans needed to quickly replace him both in the U.S. Senate and his spot on the ballot for the November election. Andrews, the nominee of Democrats, was left in a bit of a holding pattern until things were resolved. Term-limited Republican Governor Henry McMaster would make the appointment, but it was clear he would listen to whatever Donald Trump told him to do, and most believed Republican primary voters, who would quickly be sent back to the polls for one and maybe two more rounds of Senate nomination selection, would go along with his endorsement as well. 

 

Many ambitious Republicans wanted to run for this seat. An open seat in South Carolina for Senate does not come up often at all. It was thought that the Governor would pick a placeholder to go to Washington and vote the way Republican Leaders wanted, while others would fight it out in a flash primary. Lt Governor Pamela Evette, who had just lost in an embarrassing way a Gubernatorial runoff, even with McMaster's support (and Trump's reduced support from full to half), might have had a soft political landing but she was not chosen. Neither was Congressman Joe Wilson, the Dean of the state delegation, and the father of the Gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Alan Wilson. After all, he wanted to remain in the House.

 

Trump surprised many by putting out a statement saying that he wanted Graham's sister to be named to the Senate. Darline Graham Nordone, who would soon drop the married name she had been using for clear political purposes, had been involved in her brother's campaigns but had never run for office. The story of how Lindsey raised his young sister after both of their parents had passed away was well known. His loss was clearly a deep and surprising personal tragedy for Mrs. Nordone and she deserved much sympathy, as the Senator did not have a family of his own beyond her and hers. It seemed a bit jarring but perhaps understandable that she would want to carry on his legacy during the final months of his term. In the past, widows have been named to replace deceased husbands, but it had been decades since that last happened, and it did not appear a sibling was ever named to replace another in such a way. Darline Graham had a career in public administration for the State of South Carolina and served in some leadership roles, but nothing was known about her particular views or why she actually wanted to be a Senator despite her stated desire to vote the way Donald Trump wanted her to vote. She was quickly sworn into office and had a very busy several days on home and on Capitol Hill before her brother was laid to rest.

 

The expectation though was that the new Senator Graham would be a temp and the actual politicians started jockeying. This included many who had just lost the primary for Governor including Congresswoman Nancy Mace and Congressman Ralph Norman. During this summer, there was still some uncertainty if the U.S. House map for the state was going to be changed for redistricting and perhaps a new primary held which would allow them to run again for the seats they gave up for Governor, That ultimately did not happen. Mace, after a poor showing in the Gubernatorial primary would not run for Senate, but Norman would, and Mace, who had praised the appointment of Darline Graham, would wind up endorsing Norman.

 

The new primary field also included Mark Lynch, who had finished second in the June primary and several others. Announcing a bid was Mark Sanford, who had served as Governor (and had an infamous extra-marital scandal) in between two stints in the U.S. House, where he had once been a close Graham ally. Sanford had turned down comeback bids before, including this year for Governor, but did briefly run in 2020 as an anti-Trump Republican against the incumbent, which of course barely caused a ripple. This was after he lost a 2020 primary for renomination in his Congressional district after Trump endorsed an opponent (who would go on to lose to a Democrat.)

 

Also announcing a bid and considered a strong possibility for a Presidential endorsement was Congressman Russell Fry. He had been recruited by Trump to run for Congress in 2022 against a Republican incumbent who voted to impeach him, and Fry easily won the nomination. He was running for reelection in 2026 but jumped into the Senate contest, perhaps with encouragement from some in Trump's orbit. There was an open question about what that would mean for his Congressional district. He could not serve in both offices obviously, though it appeared he would be able to run for both. Thus, if Fry became a Senator, his House seat, which he would be expected to win, would go vacant until a special election could be held. Perhaps he realized Republicans were on the verge of losing House control and did not care about getting out of there.

 

Developments were happening fast and then suddenly Trump posted that he wanted Darline Graham to run for the full term. He really seems to like the idea of nepotism and the concept of business or political "royalty." At this point, Graham had seemingly agreed to be a candidate. She went from probably never even thinking of running for office to being a sitting U.S. Senator and someone asking the voters to send her there for an additional six years, in virtually a mater of days. Many across the Republican Party at least privately expressed dismay about all of this, thinking that others were far more deserving of a full Senate term than someone whose only claim was being the sister of the person who had held the job before. I think Darline Graham is likely a very nice and intelligent person, but I cannot imagine she gave all of this the proper thought, especially while grieving.

 

On the campaign trail, the grandmotherly Graham was stilted and scripted, but she had the Trump endorsement going for her. She continued to say she would support his agenda down the line. For whatever reason, the political sycophancy was running in the family. While Lindsey Graham was known for his foreign policy views, his sister said she was more focused on cost of living and pocketbook issues. Clearly, someone told her about what polls were saying (even though Trump has been dismissing those concerns as a "hoax."

 

On August 11, the vote was held among Republicans and Graham, with Trump's endorsement, took first but with just 33 percent of the vote. The 73 year old Congressman Ralph Norman, a one-time conservative firebrand favorite, who hurt himself politically by endorsing Nikki Haley for President, advanced to the runoff with 25 percent. Fry took 20 and was free to try to explain his maneuvering while running again in his Congressional district, Sanford won 15 percent in what was likely his political swan song, and Lynch was way back with 6 percent.

 

Two weeks later, Graham and Norman would have voters show up again to determine the runoff. Trump definitely did not want Norman to win, considering the Nikki Haley relationship (and she was of course supporting him here as she did for Governor) but many in MAGA just did not like the idea of Darline Graham, or for that matter, any Graham, serving in the Senate. Fry did his duty to Trump and lined up behind her though for the runoff. The leadership on Capitol Hill were of course supporting the new incumbent Senator as well. Sanford and Lynch, plus some conservative grassroots organizations backed Norman.  The current Governor was behind Graham, whom he had appointed, but Alan Wilson, the new nominee for Governor stayed neutral.

 

A televised debate was held and there was a pretty cringe moment for Darline Graham. When asked about U.S. support for Taiwan, she said that while her brother was in the military and she supported it, national security was "not her thing" and seemed genuinely clueless about the major issue, all while a giant yellow legal pad was stretched down her podium. Frankly, Norman should have hit on this pretty hard politically but seemed to hold back. Graham was forced to admit that she did not know much about foreign policy or national security but it was not something the voters were thinking much about anyway. In many ways, she might have been right. Still, in the final days, the polls were extremely close, and it was uncertain whether Graham or Norman would advance. Trump showed up to do a rally though and his choice pulled through 52-48, hardly a strong showing, all things considered. Norman conceded the loss but has said some odd things since, including what seemed to be a call for voters to write him in on the November ballot. He has since stated his endorsement, but has questioned why Trump supported his former opponent and likely speaks for others.

 

Considering the political nature of South Carolina, Darline Graham is favored to embark on an extension of her time in the Senate. I did not think she would agree to debate Dr. Andrews, but apparently, one will occur on October 11 and I think that will likely get a lot of attention. The Democrat is pointing out that Graham is merely reading scripts "written in Washington D.C." and does not really have any views or qualifications of her own. That could be a powerful argument this year. Republicans are saying that Andrews is very far to the left and has said things and made videos that are too "woke" including one in which she criticized her fellow white women for voting for Trump. Andrews, who seems to be far more comfortable with television cameras and interviews, is focusing much on health care. Not long ago, Graham seemed to state that her experience with health care was that her hard-working, self-sufficient parents died young and that seemed to justify a position against government involvement in the matter. What she said really did not make much sense and could easily be classified as making her opponent's case for her. Andrews is very much stressing her pro-choice views in this race on the abortion issue, where the Grahams are identified with an anti-abortion position. Nationally, this might be a political plus for Andrews, but it is less clear that it can move swing voters in South Carolina, which of course does have a very strong Pro-Life base of support as well.

 

Some recent polls are showing a dead heat in South Carolina, which is pretty amazing on its face. Darline Graham, while a sympathetic character, is just not a strong candidate. There are many other South Carolina Republicans (though perhaps not ones like Mace or Norman) who would be faring a whole lot better right now. I still find it less likely than not that a Democrat can actually win a federal statewide race in South Carolina, but am willing to keep an eye on what develops. If there is indeed a political tsunami in the offering for the blue team, this one is very much in play. If Donald Trump decides to go to South Carolina for a big rally, that will be a sign of immense worry about the state and the need to get the MAGA base to show up. These days though, a Trump visit, might have his own unintended political consequences.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

15 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

46 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

South Carolina Governor- Race of the Day

35 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Palmetto State politics have definitely been interesting this year.and the current Senate general election qualifies as such. The Gubernatorial race is probably not that at interesting, at least not anymore, and less so than it could have been.

 

Republican Henry McMaster, a Donald Trump favorite is unable to seek a third full term. After a very long political career of ups and downs, he had been elevated to the Governorship when Trump chose then Governor Nikki Haley for the somewhat irrelevant post of Ambassador to the UN. He has since said he did so merely to reward McMaster with the Governorship. The 2024 Republican Presidential primary clearly shows that voters there sided with Trump over Haley in their race against each other.

 

A large field of Republicans emerged for the right to become the next Governor. A primary was held in early June with a runoff occurring later in the month. Some candidates would not stick around until the end and in the months leading up to the primary, there was some real doubt about who the top two candidates might be. Pamela Evette, the Lt. Governor, was perhaps not all that well-known and was not a South Carolina native. She had the support of Governor McMaster though and in late May received the "complete and total" endorsement of Trump. That would seem to have put her in very good standing to become the Governor.

 

There were still other contenders though including Rom Reddy, a wealthy businessman and political outsider who was born in India (as were the parents of former Governor Haley.) Two sitting Members of Congress ran as did the son of of their colleagues. Seventy-two year old Ralph Norman was a hardline conservative favorite of many but it was not forgotten that he was perhaps the only prominent South Carolina Republican in the state to have endorsed Haley in her Presidential campaign. Needless to say, felt the need to return the favor in this race. Also running, and holding a narrow lead in many early polls was Congresswoman Nancy Mace, who first made headlines as the first female cadet at the Citadel. She had failed pretty badly statewide in a 2014 primary challenge to an incumbent U.S. Senator but went on to be elected to the State House and in 2020, four years after Norman, got elected to Congress from the Charleston area, defeating an incumbent Democrat. Her district was about as competitive as there was in South Carolina at the time, but redistricting helped make it more Republican. Mace still had Republican primaries to contend with. She had a very tumultuous relationship with Donald Trump. At times, she was a critic and seemed to be a well-spoken principled advocate of the kind of party that existed before Trump and she won a primary in which he opposed her. Then, Mace started drifting more towards MAGA on just about everything and especially cultural matters (with the exception of the Epstein files which Trump could never forgive. Mace has had a pretty turbulent personal life during her time in Congress regarding personal relationships and claims of being the victim of schemes of her then fiancee and all sorts of other allegations. She developed a reputation for being becoming increasingly erratic and many staff members departed her office and some spoke out against her. Mace more and more leaned into conspiracy theories and caustic statements about liberals and Democrats that she posted online. A lot of people have claimed she has some deep seated personal issues and needs medical treatment. In spite of it all, she ran for Governor and looked like a serious contender. Had she been nominated, Republicans might be finding themselves in a very awkward and tenuous position right now. Most recently, Mace has debuted several large colorful tattoos on her arms.

 

Another major contender was Attorney General Alan Wilson, whose adoptive father Joe Wilson, of "You Lie!" fame, has been in Congress since 2001 and is running again. The younger Wilson first became Attorney General after the 2010 election and has won three consecutive reelections. Over the past couple of years, as Mace knew she would be facing him as an opponent for Governor, she accused his office of trying to slow-walk or cover up crimes committed against the Congresswoman by her ex-fiancee and his friends. Wilson has denied this of course. It is all a very complicated matter but there seemed to be some serious bad blood between the two Gubernatorial candidates. Mace also went very strongly against Evette in this race as well. Then again, she has been going after virtually everyone on Twitter/X for many months now.

 

One would expect Trump's endorsement of Evette to be a game changer. It seems like he did so as a favor to McMaster more than anything else. Another angle existed though as well. In South Carolina, Gubernatorial nominees now pick their Lt. Governor runningmates themselves instead of leaving it up to the voters. Sometimes though, candidates announce their choices ahead of the primary. For example, Norman picked former State Representative Adam Morgan, a songwriter, and Wilson picked State Senator Mike Reichenbach, an African-American car dealership owner, who like Wilson is also adopted. In endorsing Evette, Trump seemed to encourage her to select attorney Henry McMaster Jr. who had never run for office, but who of course happened to be the son of the Governor. It might very well be the case this was supposed to be a quid pro quo for Evette to choose him, in order to have her boss the Governor and father of the would be political nepo-baby, deliver the Trump endorsement. Evette never committed publicly to this though and just before the primary, McMaster Jr. took his name out of consideration. One can surmise all the stuff happening on the Republican side away from the public eye.

 
Primary day came and Evette, the McMaster and Trump endorsed candidate only took 29 percent, which is pretty stunning. Wilson, who was the favorite of many conservatives, was second with 26 percent and advanced to the runoff. Norman received 17 percent, Reddy 14 percent, and Mace pretty much fizzled out and only took 12 percent, last among active candidates. We will hear some of these names again as later in the summer, when a Republican Senator and recent nominee suddenly passed away, some of these candidates were involved in that special primary. 

 

After the primary, Norman endorsed Wilson and so did Mace, despite all the horrible things she had said about him previously. She apparently disliked Evette even more. Wilson was pretty circumspect publicly about receiving the Mace endorsement but talked up his support from Norman, the third place candidate. (Reddy apparently stayed out of the runoff fray.) It looked like it was very likely that Wilson would defeat Evette, even without the Trump endorsement. So what happened next? Trump posted a dual endorsement of both Evette and now Wilson. Yes, he endorsed both candidates in a two person race. That way, he would be able to claim victory, as he stated he only wanted to help Evette get into the runoff when he gave her his sole endorsement. Now, with the political writing clearly on the wall, he screwed her over politically in a major way. It would have been fascinating to hear what was being said at her campaign offices. Wilson cruised to the nomination with 69 percent of the runoff vote.

 

Democrats might have had a chance in this race against someone as controversial as Mace or perhaps even against Norman, since so many in the party had soured on him also. Against Wilson however, it is a much tougher sled. The nominee for Democrats is 41 year old State Representative Jermaine Johnson, the first African-American Gubernatorial nominee, at least since Reconstruction, in South Carolina history. Johnson is a former professional basketball player who holds a doctorate in business administration. He is running with 38 year old Sam Skardon, a "clean energy" executive who has been active in the party and chaired it in Charleston County. While Democrats seem to have a credible ticket, with a narrative of generational change, one has to also question if someone else would maybe would have been a stronger contender to win the votes of disaffected white voters. In the primary, which is dominated by African-Americans (and will definitely be a theme in 2028's first in the nation Presidential contest for Democrats) Johnson took 60 percent, definitely more than enough to avoid a runoff.  At one point in the campaign, Johnson was facing rumors he was about to quit the race due to fundraising concerns. Businessman Billy Webster, a good deal older than Johnson, and white, took 30 percent. In this race, the former Chief of now long ago Governor Richard Riley, had been endorsed by Bill Clinton, but that likely means little to most Democrats these days. An another white candidate, a trial lawyer named Mullins McLeod took 11 percent.

 

I think a case could be made that the more moderate Webster would have run a few points better against Wilson than Johnson will, but it is all sort of irrelevant in a way. Democrats will hope for a large turnout of African-Americans in the midterm, especially those upset about all the potential redistricting that was avoided this cycle, but which probably will be signed into law by the next Republican Governor, that would seek to eliminate the one seat in the Congressional delegation held by an African-American Democrat. I cannot find much polling for this race, but an internal poll for Democrats shows a competitive race.

 

The reality though is that South Carolina is still a very Republican state, Johnson is probably too far to the left to win statewide, and Wilson has a demonstrated record of statewide political success. Imagine though if Nancy Mace had stuck with Trump on the Epstein Files and got his sole endorsement. This might be a very different race.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

11 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

19 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

NFL Week 3 Results and Week 4 Games

36 Days Until Election Day

 

Today, I did not find time to write about South Carolina Governor. However, I can move my weekly NFL post up because what happened tonight on Monday Night Football was pretty incredible! Golly! Politics can wait for another day, although there will be a lot of things competing for my attention over the next couple.

 

Week 3 

 

1. Falcons (0-2) at Packers (1-1) W 1

 

 

 

2.  Chargers (0-2) at Bills (2-0) W 2

3.  Panthers (1-1) at Browns (1-1) W 3

4.  Jets (1-1) at Lions (1-1) L 1

5.  Texans (0-2) at Colts (0-2) L 2

6.  Patriots (1-1) at Jaguars (1-1) W 4

7.  Chiefs (2-0) at Dolphins (2-0) W 5

8.  Titans (0-2) at Giants (1-1) L 3
9.  Bengals (2-0) at Steelers (1-1) L 4

10. Seahawks (2-0) at Commanders (0-2) W 6

11. Cardinals (1-1) at 49ers (2-0) L 5

12. Vikings (2-0) at Buccaneers (0-2) L 6

13. Raiders (2-0) at Saints (1-1) W 7

14. Ravens (1-1) vs Cowboys (1-1) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil W 8

15. Rams (1-1) at Broncos (1-1) W 9

 

16.  Eagles (2-0) at Bears (1-1) W 10

 

Week 3 Results: 10-6 (63%)

Overall Results: 25-23 (52%)

_____________________________________________________________________ 

 

Week 4

 

Current Result: 25-23 (52%) 

 

1. Steelers (2-1) at Browns (2-1)

 

 

 

2.  Colts (1-2) vs Commanders (1-2) in London, England

3.  Titans (0-3) at Ravens (2-1)

4.  Patriots (1-2) at Bills (3-0)

5.  Jets (1-2) at Bears (2-1)

6.  Jaguars (2-1) at Bengals (2-1)

7.  Cowboys (1-2) at Texans (0-3)

8.  Cardinals (1-2) at Giants (2-1)

9.  Rams (1-2) at Eagles (2-1)

10. Packers (1-2) at Buccaneers (0-3)

11. Dolphins (0-3) at Vikings (3-0)

12. Chiefs (3-0) at Raiders (3-0)

13. Chargers (0-3) at Seahawks (2-1)

14. Broncos (2-1) at 49ers (3-0)

15. Lions (2-1) at Panthers (1-2)

 

16. Falcons (1-2) at Saints (1-2)

Rhode Island U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

37 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

As Election Day grows nearer, there are many Senate elections that are being highly analyzed as the races appear tight and the balance of power depends on the outcome. In terms of competitiveness, Rhode Island is not one of those races.

 

Democrat Jack Reed, who will turn 77 shortly after the election is currently the Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and hopes to once again become the Chairman. A West Point grad and Army veteran, Reed was first elected to office 42 years ago. He came to Congress after the 1990 election and six years later moved up to the Senate, in what is among the nation's more reliable blue states on the federal level. The Senator has never had anything even close to a real race and this year should be no exception. In a primary earlier this month, Reed took 77 percent against two opponents. Perhaps some Democrats thought he had been in office long enough and others likely thought that Reed, though fairly liberal across the board, was not combative enough against Republicans, or had been too willing to work in a bipartisan way during all his years on Capitol Hill. Connor Burbridge, an elderly care worker who came in second with 13 percent is just 30 years old, the same length of time Reed since Reed was first elected to the Senate.

 

Republicans did not have a contested primary, probably because nobody else really wanted to waste their time on making this race.  The nominee is Raymond McKay, who has a birthday just 11 years and one day apart from Reed. Also an Army veteran, he worked for a local government as an IT manager and has been involved as a conservative political activist. In 2024, McKay ran for the Senate, but lost a Republican primary by a 64-36 margin against a more establishment candidate. She went on to get 40 percent of the vote, but this cycle, against Reed, will likely yield a return of the low thirties at best for the Republican.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

Rhode Island Governor- Race of the Day

38 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Rhode Island has long been considered one of the most Democrat states in the Union, but it was unable to win the Governorship at the ballot box between 1994 and 2010. Since the 2014 election though, the office has been controlled by that party, although with lots of internal divisions. A primary earlier this month resulted in the first incumbent Governor losing a nomination race since 2018 and the first elected one to do so since 2014. Still though, there is probably not going to be much impact on the general election.

 

Democrat Dan McKee, a businessman, had been around local politics for some time. He was twice elected Lt. Governor of Rhode Island, and was considered a somewhat moderate member of his party. Then, in 2021, Governor Gina Raimondo, also somewhat moderate by New England standards, left to become Joe Biden's Secretary of Commerce. McKee became Governor, without much of a relationship with Raimondo at all, even though they were of the same political party.

Once in the top office, McKee seemed to have a hard time finding his footing and faced a five way primary in 2022. He narrowly won by a 33-30 margin over former CVS executive Helena Buonanno Foulkes. She had a grandfather and an uncle who were prominent Senators from Connecticut, and she received some political support from old guard Democrats because of that connection. In that race, she finished narrowly ahead of Rhode Island's female Secretary of State, and well ahead of a male who had also been Secretary of State. Both of them had run to the left. Nonetheless, McKee had won with a plurality and much of the support of organized labor. In the general election, the acting Governor secured four years by beating a little known Republican, businesswoman and former Illinois Gubernatorial aide Ashley Kalus 58-39.

 

Local issues have consistently kept McKee under water politically at home. One has to question why he made the decision to seek a second full term at age 75, but it did not work out well for him. Foulkes was back for a rematch, this time with the opposition field to herself and she prevailed over the incumbent by a 25 point margin. In the primary, McKee had tried to place some blame on Foulkes for the opioid epidemic considering her private sector association with the CVS pharmacy, one of the state's largest employees. The voters were not buying it though and after his loss, the Governor endorsed his former opponent and called on the party to unite behind Foulkes.

 

On the Republican side, Kalus considered but passed on an other run for Governor. She did however say that Foulkes would be even worse than McKee and in her own party endorsed former actress and model Elaine Pulino. That candidate ran on MAGA support and themes but the state party endorsed a different candidate in Aaron Guckian who had once held the glamorous job of Chair of the Warwick Sewer Authority. A trade association executive and former Gubernatorial aide, Guckian had lost 51-43 as his party's nominee for Lt. Governor in 2022. This month, he defeated Pulino in the primary 51-49, which I think might have been a good deal closer than many expected. A recount did not change the results. Guckian has deliberately put distance between himself and Donald Trump during his political career. He is apparently a tall man and is telling voters to "think big."

 

Independents have been known to run statewide in Rhode Island as well. There will be three of them on the ballot including businessman Ken Block who had founded the Moderate Party in the state and has run under its banner. In 2010, he received six percent in a Gubernatorial general election and then lost a 2014 Republican primary for the office. Now, he is back running for Governor as an Independent again, despite the fact that the current nominee is considered mainly a moderate also.

 

Some polls actually show that Block, who perhaps has higher name recognition than Guckian, might possibly finish in second place this year. Both are well behind Foulkes though, who clearly has to be considered a strong frontrunner in a state like Rhode Island. The Democrat though does not appear to be cracking 50 percent yet, which indicates that a lot of voters, including Democrats who had supported McKee might not be totally sold on her and are willing to at least be considering other non-MAGA options.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Pennsylvania Governor- Race of the Day

39 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

The Keystone State is perhaps now the nation's biggest prize in the Electoral College. It has sided with the winner in five consecutive Presidential elections and was a huge win for Donald Trump in allowing him to return to the White House. It also is one of the few remaining states to have U.S. Senators from different parties (although the two are seen as close friends now) and both were elected in very tight campaigns. This year though, the Governorship is not expected to be incredibly close.

 

There used to be a tradition in Pennsylvania where Governors were regularly reelected and served eight years in office, but then the other party would win the open race and take over for the same period of time. That ended in 2014, when even in a strong GOP midterm year, the Republican incumbent was defeated by 10 points, part of the reason why Trump's victory in 2016 came as a huge surprise. On the Gubernatorial front, Democrats are now trying to win their fourth in a row and fifth out of the last six, even as the state government is currently divided with Democrats narrowly ahead in the State House and Republicans with a State Senate Majority.

 

In 2022, Democrat Josh Shapiro, who received national attention as the Attorney General of Pennsylvania during the disputed 2020 Presidential election, was anointed by his party without opposition and then easily defeated a weak Republican opponent by 15 points. Shapiro, considered a rising star in the party, who many people thought had deliberately established a speaking skill and cadence that sounded much like Barack Obama, was lucky enough to face Doug Mastriano, a Trump endorsed State Senator who won a crowded and complicated primary. Mastriano was about as big of a MAGA acolyte one can get, from election denying all the way down. He also ran a very unorthodox campaign where he raised little money and rarely interacted at all with any media outlet that was not considered right-wing or friendly. Despite trailing in the general election polls throughout the campaign, Mastriano did not agree to any sort of traditional debate with his opponent and the two never faced off. The end result on Election Night was clear.

Going into this cycle, it looked like Mastriano wanted another opportunity and this very much worried Republicans. Similarly defeated MAGA Gubernatorial candidates have been nominated this year for rematches in places like Illinois and Maryland, but in Pennsylvania, Mastriano decided to take a pass. Trump has since nominated him to be Ambassador to Slovakia. Previously, Congressman Dan Meuser had surprised some by deciding not to run for Governor. He perhaps sensed the uphill nature of a campaign in 2026 against a fairly popular incumbent.

 

This time around though, Republicans were able to nominate someone in May without a primary battle, and in this case, it is a candidate who has won statewide office before. Stacy Garrity, a businesswoman and retied Army Colonel would become Pennsylvania's first woman elected to either the Governorship or U.S. Senate. As recently as 2019, Garrity had lost a Republican primary for a special Congressional election but she ran for Treasurer in 2020 and even as Trump lost the state to Pennsylvania native Joe Biden, Garrity managed to narrowly unseat an incumbent State Treasurer. In 2024 she sought reelection and faced a flawed Democrat opponent and managed to win with the most total votes of any statewide candidate in Pennsylvania history.

 

There are legitimate reasons to believe Garrity has political strength, but a downballot race for Treasurer is different than one for Governor and Garrity has a long record of pro-Trump support, including on the 2020 election results, that seemingly put her at least somewhat in the same category as Mastriano. 

 

Separate primaries are held for Lt. Governor in the Commonwealth and then that person runs on a general election ticket with the Gubernatorial nominee. Garrity had expressed support for attorney Jason Richey, who chaired the party in Allegheny County, a different part of the state from where she hails from. Richey had run for Governor in the crowded 2022 field but had withdrawn along with others in a failed attempt to get a nominee other than Mastriano. In this year's primary, with the support of the party, Richey defeated a gadfly perennial candidate with 66 percent of the vote. That is perhaps not exactly a totally comfortable number, but it is likely few people were really paying much attention to that primary.

 

The Philadelphia area Shapiro is running once again with current Lt. Governor Austin Davis, who like his Republican counterpart this year, also comes from Western Pennsylvania. As he is about to turn 37 years old, Davis, a former State Representative is the youngest Lt. Governor in American history, and the first African-American statewide official in Pennsylvania. Most believe that if Shapiro has his way, Davis will become Governor before too long. A lot of Democrats in the state and nationwide wish he already were Governor.

 

Shapiro is widely seen as someone very much preparing himself to run for President in 2028, although he claims he is totally focused on his job and the campaign at hand. In 2024, he was thought of as a frontrunner to become Kamala Harris's running-mate during the crazy abbreviated post-Biden drop out period. It appears he was the runner-up to Tim Walz, and people have all sorts of theories. Harris and Shapiro have both written books in which they appear to take some political shots at each other and might soon be facing off on a debate stage. It appears likely that Shapiro realized that the job of Vice President would not really have all that much responsibility under a Harris Administration (just as she did not have much to do under Biden) and he decided he would rather remain Governor. Harris's team put out word that Shapiro was already being too demanding during the interview process. A lot of others think that the fact that Shapiro is Jewish (especially since Harris is married to a Jewish attorney herself) and his history of support for Israel made him a non-starter to many on the left. The more progressive Walz (who claimed he had no intention of ever running for President) turned out to be what looked like the "safer" choice at the time, and Shapiro loyally offered his support to the ticket and spoke rousingly at the party's national convention. I will just briefly state that Harris should have gone with Shapiro. They had to actually win the election before any worries about what would go on in the Oval Office between two politicians. Pennsylvania was the key(stone) swing state and if nothing else, Shapiro would have delivered a win there. His presence on the ticket also probably would have saved an incumbent Democrat Senator from being defeated and maybe some U.S. House members too, which could have even kept the party in the majority on Capitol Hill. Trump probably still would have won in other states, but Shapiro would have done a lot more to convince centrist voters and Jewish-Americans that Harris was acceptable. There was definitely a worry about left-wingers boycotting the ticket and those that would have, probably still did so with Walz on the ticket anyway.

 

In this campaign, Shapiro is probably not going to have much trouble against Garrity, but the contest could be closer than his victory over the hapless Mastriano. If there truly is a national wave, the incumbent will likely win by about the same margin or even more. Shapiro is running as a relative centrist as a Democrat and on his ability to as he puts it, "get shit done." (Profanity is far more prominent in politics these days, even from a "nice Jewish boy" like Shapiro.)

 

Obviously, Republicans will try to tie Shapiro to national Democrats who are considered farther to his left and point at his national ambitions as a problem for Pennsylvania. At the same time, they will seem to say that he will never make it in the party sweepstakes, which kind of hurts their argument that he is too far to the left. 

 

Next, I would like to point out that Governor Shaprio is definitely to my left ideologically by a substantial degree. As a person though who does not want to see a Trump supporter get elected President next, I think he may just very well be the strongest option for Democrats. The party could definitely do worse, and sadly, probably will. Shapiro, who with his family, was sleeping in the Governors Mansion after a Jewish holiday celebration, when a far-left terrorist threw firebombs into it. Luckily, no one was injured, but in this time of rising antisemitism, Shapiro is very much at the forefront. Can today's Democrats nominate a Jewish-American? I really have my doubts, not that Republicans ever would. When Harris passed over Shapiro in 2024, my thought was that Joe Lieberman in 2000 aside, a Jew might never again be nominated by either major party for President or Vice President. We shall see.

 

If Shapiro runs for President, he will face many questions about Israel.Thus far, while very critical of Benjamin Netanyahu, he has remained a supporter of the Jewish State. For some on the left, that is simply unforgivable and they will demand he speak about "genocide." There are also likely to be other Jewish candidates in the field (two of them from Chicago) and two others who are not Jewish but married to people who are. More recently, a lot of attention is being paid to Jon Ossoff, a Jewish-American Georgia Senator who is expected to win reelection this year and then may run for President. Ossoff and Shapiro both seem to have a lot of the same political strengths, but with different backgrounds. If both are actually in the same field together, they will serve to each the chances of each other. That will definitely be something to watch also.

 

Also, as a side note, we should how the most pro-Israel Democrat in politics today is also from Pennsylvania, but Shapiro has long had a fraught relationship with Senator John Fetterman. Once a darling of progressive activists, Fetterman, in his post-stroke era, has taken on a whole new political identity in many ways and is now extremely politically embattled and some think he could become a Republican in the next Congress. He also clearly has never gotten along with Shapiro, perhaps due to some problems they had when he was Lt. Governor and Shapiro was Attorney General. Having Fetterman against him is definitely a plus for Shapiro among Democrats nationally, even though the two might not be totally out of sync on Israel.

 

While the focus of this piece should be on the 2026 Governor election, one cannot help but look ahead at what it all might mean to Josh Shapiro. Clearly, voters in his state are fairly happy with the job he is doing and he may wind up winning a sizable reelection in a crucial state that Republicans have recently tasted victory in. That should be a sign to Democrats that he is someone to seriously look at as a strong Presidential contender. There might just be a lot of his party members, even in his home state, who are fine with supporting him for Governor, but are going to be afraid to get behind him if he seems the Presidential nomination. Covering Josh Shapiro in this 2026 election period would be quiet an interesting job.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

18 D (2 Safe, 8 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

24 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 8 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Oregon U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

40 Days Until Election Day

 

Oregon U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Any competitiveness that might exist in Oregon's Gubernatorial contest is not expected to carryover to the Senate. This particular Senate race will be one of the least covered in the country on Election Night. One can hardly blame the Republican challenger for trying to focus on state issues rather than federal ones during this midterm election in a blue state.

 

In 2008, Democrat Jeff Merkley unseated moderate Republican Gordon Smith to win election to the U.S. Senate. Six years later, he seemed to be in a competitive race against a physician during a much better cycle for Republicans. Issues surrounding that candidate's personal life though, back when voters seemed to care more about those things, cost her campaign and Merkely was reelected by a large margin. Six years later, Merkely won by nearly the same margin against another female candidate, who was known as a supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory. Clearly, Oregon has voters who will vote for a Republican no matter whom it is, but just not nearly enough to win statewide.

 

The incumbent, who hopes to take over as Senate Budget Committee Chairman is a pretty left-wing lawmaker who does not seem to do a lot of national media. Merkely seems content with a long career in the Senate and no longer harbors any Presidential ambition, as some used to think. In the May primary, he took 93 percent.

 

Republicans had a seven way primary which might not have been that high-profile, even in the state. Four candidates received double digits. Whatever exists of the Republican establishment in Oregon managed to at least not nominate a particular candidate they did not want to have to deal with again. Jo Rae Perkins, the former Chair of the Linn County Republican Party, has run for office several times and is the QAnon lady who lost to Merkley in 2020 when she received 39 percent of the vote. She was also the Republican nominee against Oregon's other Senate in 2022, when after winning a primary narrowly, she took 41 percent in November. There would be no three-peat of general election failure for Perkins this year though. She lost the primary 30-27 to State Senator David Brock Smith. Commercial real estate broker Brent Barker was third with 23 percent.

 

With a background in the restaurant business and having held local office, Smith, no apparent relation to the former Senator whom Merkely defeated, is a more credible nominee for his party. Still, he is going to be vastly overspent and likely ignored by the incumbent. He can expect to get around 39 percent of the vote, but not much more than that.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

13 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

47 D (34 holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

Oregon Governor- Race of the Day

41 Days Until Election Day

 Oregon Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

A Republican has not won the Governorship of Oregon since one was reelected way back in 1982. The party out of power has since often thought they had a very good chance of winning and almost always, this race results in a single digit victory for Democrats, as urban voters in the Portland area surpass the heavily Republican vote that comes from the eastern part of the state.

Four years ago, three women competed and it looked like it might be a very interesting result for the open office. The candidacy of a moderate Independent, who had long been a Democrat fell off towards the end though as she received just nine percent. The victor, former State House Speaker Tina Kotek took 47 percent while Republican Christine Drazan, the former State House Minority Leader took 44 percent. With her 2022 victory, Kotek became one of the first two openly gay women to be elected Governor.

Four years later, both women, who were born with the name Christine, and who did battle in the legislature before their last campaign for Governor and facing off again. This time there is no major independent candidate, although a third party candidate of the Pacific Green Party could theoretically hurt the incumbent. Oregon is looked at as a pretty blue state as Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump by 14 points, but some recent polling is pointing at a very close result in this Gubernatorial re-match. Should Republicans be excited about the possibility of a Pacific Northwest pickup? They should probably try to curb their enthusiasm.

Clearly, a lot of Oregon voters have some problems with the generations of Democrat control in Salem. There is dissatisfaction involving the economy, crime, and qualify of life issues, such as some pretty bad outcomes when Oregon decriminalized most drugs in 2021 before repealing that law in 2024. Voters are also said to be worried about data centers and in this race, the Republican challenger has taken an even more restrictive position than the incumbent. This is in contrast to the recent laissez-faire attitude expressed by Donald Trump in the White House. It will be a challenge for Drazan to try to keep voters from placing their dissatisfaction on the status quo on Trump and a Republican Congress instead of Kotek and the Democrats running Oregon.

All sorts of candidates qualify for Oregon primaries and in May, Kotek took 84 percent against several opponents. Some voices and groups on the left though held off on endorsing the Governor who herself came from the progressive wing of the party.  Four years ago, Drazan, who was considered one of the more mainstream options, survived a jam packed Republican primary to win with just 23 percent. In this cycle, the Republican field was reduced to 14 candidates and Drazan won with 41 percent. Since her last race, she happened to be elected once again to the State House and seemed set to return as Minority Leader, but then accepted an appointment to the State Senate. Finishing behind Drazan with 33 percent was State Representative Ed Diehl. Trailing in third place with 17 percent was financial executive Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trailblazers player.  In the strongly Republican year of 2010, Dudley, who had once set an NBA record for missed consecutive free throws,  had been the GOP nominee for Governor and came within about a point of victory, after leading in many polls that cycle. By 2026 though, Oregon Republicans had apparently moved on from Dudley.

The conventional wisdom was that Drazan was the strongest possible Republican opponent for Kotek. The polls are clearly somewhat surprising to many, even though there has not been many of them. One Republican firm put Drazan ahead by four points among registered voters in June and survey from earlier this month, conducted on behalf of a pro-business group shows the Republican with a 45-43 lead while 13 percent said they were undecided.

Kotek is not in great political shape and voters seem to wish someone else were Governor. Nonetheless, she is going to try to talk about Donald Trump as much as possible, and within good reason. This will likely keep Drazan somewhat on the defensive, as is the case with many other Republican candidates around the country who want to appeal to voters in the middle, while not stopping the MAGA base from sitting out the vote. My hunch is that a lot of the undecided vote in the latest poll are liberals who even if they have to figuratively hold their nose, will wind up voting to reelect a Democrat.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

17 D (2 Safe, 7 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

23 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 7 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

NFL Week 2 Results and Week 3 Games

42 Days Until Election Day

Week 2

1. Lions (1-0) at Bills (1-0) W 1

 

 

 

2. Panthers (0-1) at Falcons (0-1) W 2

3. Saints (0-1) at Ravens (1-0) L 1

4. Vikings (1-0) at Bears (1-0) L 2

5. Bengals (1-0) at Texans (0-1) W 3

6. Steelers (1-0) at Patriots (0-1) W 4

7. Packers (0-1) at Jets (1-0) L 3

8. Browns (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-1) W 5

9. Eagles (1-0) at Titans (0-1) L 4

10. Jaguars (1-0) at Broncos (0-1) W 6

11. Raiders (1-0) at Chargers (0-1) L 5

12. Seahawks (1-0) at Cardinals (1-0) L 6

13. Commanders (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1) L 7

14. Dolphins (0-1) at 49ers (1-0) L 8

15. Colts (0-1) at Chiefs (1-0) W 7

 

16. Giants (1-0) at Rams (0-1) W 8

 

Week 2 Results: 8-8 (50%)
Overall Results: 15-17 (47%)

_____________________________________________________________________ 

 

Week 3

 

Current Results: 15-17 (47%)

 

1. Falcons (0-2) at Packers (1-1)

 

 

 

2.  Chargers (0-2) at Bills (2-0)

3.  Panthers (1-1) at Browns (1-1)

4.  Jets (1-1) at Lions (1-1)

5.  Texans (0-2) at Colts (0-2)

6.  Patriots (1-1) at Jaguars (1-1)

7.  Chiefs (2-0) at Dolphins (2-0)

8.  Titans (0-2) at Giants (1-1)
9.  Bengals (2-0) at Steelers (1-1)

10. Seahawks (2-0) at Commanders (0-2)

11. Cardinals (1-1) at 49ers (2-0)

12. Vikings (2-0) at Buccaneers (0-2)

13. Raiders (2-0) at Saints (1-1)

14. Ravens (1-1) vs Cowboys (1-1) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

15. Rams (1-1) at Broncos (1-1)

 

16.  Eagles (2-0) at Bears (1-1)

Oklahoma U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

43 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Not all that long ago, it would have been hard to look at any open U.S. Senate seat as "safe" for either party. With the differences between red states and blue states being what they are today though, that is definitely the case now for one party or another in various states, regardless of the national political environment.

Of course, this race was supposed to be a routine reelection for Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin, and actually one for his first full term. The plumber turned Congressman had won a special election to the Senate in 2022, after the incumbent, who has since passed away, retired early due to health. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from the Sooner State since 1990.

Earlier this year, Mullin, who was running for the Senate, was tapped by Donald Trump to replace the embattled and in many ways humiliated Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security. While he was generally well-liked by Senate colleagues (with the notable exception of Republican Rand Paul), Mullin seemed somewhat of an add choice for such a high-level post. For one thing, he had recently been making all sorts of verbal gaffes during some of his many television interviews. On the first day, there was some question as to whether he had even agreed to take the job before he was announced and if he might even face confirmation issues in the Republican Senate. He was probably expecting a longer career on Capitol Hill, but he agreed to take the job, and with that the necessity of leaving the Senate quickly behind. Recent reports are that Trump is already quite unhappy with Mullin in the post. Maybe he winds up getting fired shortly after the midterms and he will realize he left the Senate for nothing.

Oklahoma's Republican Governor Kevin Stitt first had to pick a replacement. Stitt has not always been close to Trump, but he seemingly agreed to let Trump basically pick the person, who would apparently be a caretaker Senator who would not immediately jump into the race for the full term with the June primary rapidly approaching. Even I had to look up the name of the current junior Senator from Oklahoma. I had never heard of him before but the gig currently belongs to an energy industry businessman named Alan Armstrong. I wonder how many of his colleagues still have no idea what he even looks like.

With a sudden vacancy present, all sorts of Republicans were probably interested, including the entire U.S. House delegation. They were running for reelection also though, so clearly there would be some political musical chairs involved. It appears the new Senator will be able to be sworn in right after the November election and will have a leg up on seniority over the rest of the class of 2026. Congressman Kevin Hern announced his candidacy and Trump quickly endorsed him, all but ending any potential of a real primary.

Hern, who owned a large number of McDonald's franchises as well as other business interests was elected to Congress when he won a 2018 special election to replace another Republican who had resigned to join the Trump Administration. In the Republican caucus, Hern became a leader among conservatives and received votes for Speaker during those exercises. In June's Senate primary, he took 70 percent against four opponents which was easily enough to avoid a runoff but perhaps not exactly a dominating finish. A country music singer named Ty England finished second with 14 percent. Maybe he would have done even better if he changed his name to "Ty America."

For some time now, Democrat contests for Senate in Oklahoma have largely been afterthoughts, even though the race in 2022 had Mulin easily beating a credible opponent, who had briefly been a Congresswoman after upsetting a Republican incumbent. This year, Democrats are not going to reach that level. Five candidates competed in the June primary. An Asian-American former State Senator who had since become a Democrat finished fourth with just 7 percent. In third place with 20 percent was a charity organization founded named Troy Green but he finished four points out of a late August runoff spot, which the very concept of in this state seems like a waste of time.

In the first round, lawyer and businessman Jim Priest, who had the support of what remains of the Oklahoma Democrat party establishment took 24 percent well behind the 45 percent received by a little known 31 year old nurse named N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas. In the runoff Thomas won 61-39. Primary voters were likely not too aware that Thomas identifies as a Democratic Socialist. They may have liked the idea of voting for a woman, as most recent nominees for Governor and Senate have been female. Thomas identifies as a mixture of black, white, and Native American. Last year, she posted a TikTok video which is apparently a satirical take on something from the move "Mean Girls" but which featured her angrily destroying a pink bedroom and taking a scissors to a picture of Markwayne Mullin. Some on the right who saw this online believed it was legitimate and classified it as a "crashout."

Hern does not have much to worry about in this race, even if were not to be facing a socialist, but the fact that Democrats nominated one in Oklahoma is likely is to be brought up in many other states. The general election ballot does feature three other candidates including a nurse named Ron Meinhardt (not to be confused with "Mean Girls") who claims to be a conservative and an independent minded Republican. I was curious to look at his website, but he clearly is one of those anti-Israel Thomas Massive types. So, good luck Oklahoma, you do not seem to have much to vote for here in my view.

Senate races predicted thus far: 

12 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

46 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

Oklahoma Governor- Race of the Day

44 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

In 2018, Republican Kevin Stitt surpassed more well-known Republican candidates in a Gubernatorial primary and beat an establishment favorite in the runoff to be on his way to being elected in one of the nation's most strongly red states. As one of just two people of Native American ancestry, both from Oklahoma, to become Governor Stitt won as an outsider businessman in the mold of Donald Trump. For a time in 2022, he was thought to be vulnerable to a strong Democrat opponent but still won by 13 points. Now that Stitt is leaving office with term limits, he is definitely not considered a Trump favorite.  While generally aligned on major issues, they have clashed on some matters, and lately the Governor has been among those around the country who hold the office to call for more bipartisan cooperation and civility. He might perhaps be someone to watch if he decides to become a very long-shot Presidential contender.

 

With the Governorship open, in a state in which he has never even lost a county in any of his three runs, Trump has played a large role in the Republican nomination process. Current Lt. Governor Matt Pinnell surprised many by saying he would not run for this or any other office in 2026. Other prominent Republican names did enter the field including Chip Keating, the former state Secretary of Public Safety, whose father was once Governor and was nearly picked to be George W. Bush's running-mate in 2000. He was endorsed by Governor Stitt. Charles McCall, who had just finished up eight years as Speaker of the House also ran, as did former State Senator Jake Merrick. The frontrunner though was considered to be Gentner Drummond, Oklahoma's Attorney General, who had cultivated an image as a MAGA champion.

Trump surprised a ton of people in the Sooner State and around Republican circles nationwide though, when he endorsed a different, more longshot candidate. Nobody is quite sure why he eschewed Drummond or picked someone at all, but there has been speculation that Mike Mazzei, who had wrapped up a tenure as a State Senator a decade ago, and who later served as Secretary of the Budget, relationship as a client of Roger Stone played a part. The extremely controversial Stone, who was pardoned by Donald Trump, is one of Trump's oldest political advisors and with Mazzei as a client, could have somehow convinced the President to go out on a limb here. Mazzei's last race was for State Treasurer in 2022 and he had dropped out before the Republican primary. The Tulsa businessman was considered somewhat of a longshot in the crowded 2026 Gubernatorial field, although he had backing from some ideological conservatives.

 

In June, Trump's endorsement helped Mazzei get into a runoff, if nothing else. Drummond was narrowly ahead of the field with 26 percent with Mazzei just behind him. Keating took 19, Merrick 15, and McCall 12, A runoff was set for late August and questions emerged as to if Mazzei could defeat Drummond then, even with Trump's support, and if he might possibly have general election problems if he did. In this round, outgoing Governor Stitt also endorsed Mazzei, after having frequently clashed with Attorney General Drummond. Other Trump associates, including new DHS Secretary and recent Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin also endorsed Mazzei, Still, it turned out to be a 50-50 race with Mazzei only taking the runoff by a couple thousand votes. He definitely owes his nomination and potential Governorship to Trump, but Oklahoma Republicans proved that there will still some who were not prepared to march in lockstep with a Truth Social post. After the bitter runoff primary, Drummond has yet to issue a formal endorsement of the winner,

 

Democrats have a credible candidate for this office, but they also thought that four years ago, when they nominated a woman who had won statewide office as a Republican and then changed parties. This time, the nominee is Cyndi Munson, the State House Minority Leader. In the primary, Munson easily defeated two opponents 75 percent. That included Connie Johnson, an African-American former State Senator and member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She had lost in a blowout as the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2014 and also Gubernatorial primaries in 2018 and 2022. In this race, Johnson took just 22 percent even as another racial minority female DSA member won the U.S. Senate nomination.

 

Munson, at age 41, is twenty years younger than her opponent Mazzei. The biracial daughter of a South Korean immigrant mother she might be running in the right cycle against the right opponent in terms of a chance to make things look somewhat competitive. Mazzei is still not that well-known, barely won his party's nomination, and has some ethical issues from his past. It seems odd that being a client of Roger Stone was the one qualification that catapulted him into contention. Nonetheless, Oklahoma is just very, very Republican. There do not look to be much in the way of polling data to gauge whether a massive upset is in anyway in play.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

15 D (2 Safe, 7 Likely, 4 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

21 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 7 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)