U.S. Senate Predictions

2 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Safe Republican

Alaska- Tossup (D)

Arkansas- Likely Republican 

Colorado- Safe Democrat

Delaware- Safe Democrat

Florida- Leans Republican (change from Likely Republican)

Georgia- Likely Democrat 

Idaho- Likely Republican

Illinois- Safe Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

Iowa- Tossup (R) (change from Tossup D)

Kansas- Tossup (D) (change from Tossup R)

Kentucky- Likely Republican

Louisiana- Likely Republican

Maine- Tossup (R)

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat

Michigan- Tossup (D) 

Minnesota- Leans Democrat

Mississippi- Leans Republican 

Montana- Leans Republican

Nebraska- Leans Republican (change from Tossup R)

New Hampshire- Leans Democrat

New Jersey- Safe Democrat

New Mexico- Safe Democrat

North Carolina- Likely Democrat

Ohio- Tossup (D)

Oklahoma- Safe Republican

Oregon- Safe Democrat

Rhode Island- Safe Democrat

South Carolina- Tossup (R)

South Dakota- Leans Republican

Tennessee- Safe Republican

Texas- Tossup (D)

Virginia- Likely Democrat

West Virginia- Safe Republican

Wyoming- Safe Republican 

 

Senate total predicted:

52 D (34 holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 5 Tossup) 

48 R (31 holdover, 5 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 5

 

There do seem to be a lot of close races, but conventional wisdom is that a blue wave is coming. Typically, almost all close Senate races wind up going towards the same tide. What we do not know is if polls are accurate or not. Typically they are, especially in Senate elections, but a lot of people still feel burned about their predictions on Trump in 2016 and 2020. Have pollsters attempted to try to correct their modeling errors? Since 2024, we have seen Democrats do even better than polls were predicting in 2025 statewide in New Jersey and Virginia, at least, and in most special elections across the country. Will a more nationalized election help Republicans win or at least mitigate huge losses? That is the question of the cycle.

 

I have eight Tossup races for Senate. I doubt I will get them all wrong but I also doubt I will get them all right. Most likely, I will be off on two or three, and thus it is possible Republicans could maintain a narrow Senate majority. Frankly, since the Democrats are certainly taking over the House and Donald Trump will be a lame duck, that means nothing much will really be coming out legislation wise in the next two years regardless of who has the majority in the Senate. I am fine with that. While I definitely believe Republicans deserve to lose almost all elections and am thus rooting for Democrats to take the Senate, I would not be crushed if they did not. They have some political lessons to learn and perhaps I would still be happy with conservative federal judges who will be around long after Trump is gone. I just sort of have the feeling though that Tuesday could wind up worse for Republicans than even I am expecting.

Now, a brief cursory look at the eight Tossup races:

 

Alaska- So many headlines about the "fake Dan Sullivan" and potential involvement from the Peltola campaign. Unethical politics? Absolutely. Illegal? Likely not. I just do not think anyone, outside of the politically passionate even cares about something like that at this point. Republicans across the country are grasping at straws and this point and they found a talking point here. Perhaps, American should not like that sort of attempted political chicanery, but I think they just chalk it up to politics as usual and shrug during this era of Trumpism. It just may be well into December before we know for sure who is taking this seat.

 

Iowa- Here is one of two where I have changed my predictions. I hope to be wrong here and that Josh Turek will defeat Ashley Hinson. I just have a slight hunch she will squeak by, ironically enough due to split ticket voters, as it seems a new given that Iowa is sending a Democrat to the Governorship. Hinson has taken some steps in the last couple of weeks to try to distance herself from Trump. She likely could not have been happy he reschedued a previously cancelled in person rally for her. I have a feeling the rallies are not having the effect Republicans were hoping for, but tonight, Trump at least did manage to compliment Hinson on her body and the weight she apparently lost. Recently, he has just been giving it up for the bodies of male candidates. Must be a proud moment for her.

 

Kansas- I am changing my prediction here going on vibes. Yes, there is a poll showing Adam Hamilton with a large lead now but that might not be accurate. There is just a lot going in Kansas right now economically due to Trump's policies. The Governorship could flip from blue to red, which is I what I am predicting, but that is a Tossup also.Split ticket voters, like the reverse in Iowa, could help the Democrat here. Hamilton is just a unique sort of candidate who with his religious background appeals to a lot of non-Democrats also. Roger Marshall is just not a good politician, at least not when he is panic mode, as he seems to be lately. The rally for tonight was canceled, which many saw as a recognition that this race could be gone for Republicans, but Trump did not like the narrative of him quitting a rally so it is literally going on right now, and Trump has of course mostly been talking about candidates in other states. A Democrat has not won a Senate race since 1932, so I will not be remotely surprised if Marshal pulls it off, but I am just getting a feeling that it has slipped away from him.

 

Maine- Six years ago, I did not even call the race a Tossup. I said it was Leans D and then Susan Collins went and won pretty easily. That alone is making me stubbornly say she will win again, even as the polls and the betting markets are saying something differently. Frankly, I am a bit agnostic about it. If there is one Senate Republican candidate in the country I would vote for in 2026, it would be Susan Collins, but national trends might be enough to sink her this time. The bottom line for me is that Troy Jackson is pretty far to the left and has not exactly run an inspired campaign. I do not have any real confidence about this prediction, but I will stick with Collins being able to appeal to enough Independents in order to pull it off again.

 

Michigan- This has turned into an absolute soap opera, especially after today with Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed, the person who narrowly beat her in a Democrat primary. I have a lot of thoughts about the entire thing that I cannot get into. I posted a bunch of them on Twitter today. Basically, while Mike Rogers and the hateful campaign he is associated with is not worthy of an endorsement, one has to understand why she retracted her endorsement of El-Sayed and his hateful campaign. She seemed to give him every opportunity to make a basic statement denouncing an antisemitic campaign done by a supporter and he was not willing to do so and basically told Stevens to go to hell and they do not need her support. So, guess what happened? It is Politics 101. This cross-party endorsement (which feels like something out of professional wrestling) might help Rogers to a small extent, but I doubt it matters. People are voting based on what they think about Trump above all else. Antisemitism is just too normalized unfortunately these days to matter. So while polls overestimated El-Sayed in terms of black voters and others in a Democrat primary, I do not think the same will be true of a general election, and he seems to be in position to benefit from anti-Republican headwind. This will make it possible for him to win in 2026. If it were a normal cycle, he would be losing. I hope he does. Not that I have any love at all for Rogers, but El-Sayed is just a horrible corrosive voice in our politics and I do not look forward to him being a Senator. I hope I am wrong, but I hope he wins. Finally, while Haley Stevens seems to be going through some stuff right now, I applaud her sincerely for what she did. Country over Party was right when a few Republicans stood up and did it against Trump and it is right for a Democrat to do it against El-Sayed.

 

Ohio- Just how powerful is Jon Husted's ass? It is all the talk of the campaign homestretch thanks to Donald Trump? Ohio has been a red state, but I think Sherrod Brown, ousted by the voters just two years ago, will win due to a much different national political environment. I do not recall even seeing any coverage of Brown recently. Ohio stories have just all been about Husted's ass and the despicable Vivek Ramaswamy ad featuring Amy Acton's deplorable birth mother. The backlash there could hurt other Ohio Republicans, including Husted. There are still tons of jokes to be made, and while I cannot call other than a Tossup now, it would be a surprise to many if this is not a Democrat pickup.

 

South Carolina- This is a sad race in many ways. Darline Graham does not really want to be a Senator for six years. I doubt she even wanted to be one for six months, but she agreed to run and because South Carolina is the state that it is, she is more likely than not to survive. Her opponent Annie Andrews has some real political skills, but might just be a bit too far to the left to flip it here. Of course, a huge wave could prove me wrong. I would be happy to see it happen. Republicans though should not be happy that Donald Trump got them in the position that he did in regards to Darline Graham.

 

Texas- Speaking of situations Donald Trump got his party into....Democrat James Talarico is way to my left, but for a ton of reasons, with the possible exception of wanting to see Ramaswamy lose the Governorship of Ohio, I am all in in hoping he defeats Ken Paxton in Texas. Paxton is a horrible person and Talarico at least seems pretty decent, at least to me, and the attacks against him have been nothing short of pathetic. Winning in Texas statewide as a Democrat might be on par with the Brewers finally winning a World Series (I will not compare it to the Chicago Cubs winning a World Series ten years ago tomorrow.) The polls look very promising for Talarico but it is still Texas and a flip would still be astonishing in many ways. I am sticking with my gut and thinking it will happen.

 

Past Results:

 

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)

2018: 33-2 (94%) 

2020: 33-2 (94%) 

2022: 33-2 (94%) 

2024: 32-2 (94%)

 

Gubernatorial Predictions

3 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Leans Republican (change from Likely Republican)

Alaska- Leans Democrat 

Arizona- Likely Democrat 

Arkansas- Likely Republican 

California- Likely Democrat

Colorado- Safe Democrat

Connecticut- Likely Democrat

Florida- Leans Republican 

Georgia- Tossup (D) (change from Tossup R)

Hawai'i-  Safe Democrat

Idaho- Likely Republican 

Illinois- Safe Democrat

Iowa- Leans Democrat 

Kansas- Tossup (R) - (change from Leans Republican)

Maine-  Leans Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

Michigan- Leans Democrat

Minnesota- Likely Democrat  

Nebraska- Leans Republican (change from Tossup R)

Nevada- Tossup (D)- (change from Tossup R)

New Hampshire- Leans Republican

New Mexico- Leans Democrat

New York- Likely Democrat

Ohio- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D)

Oklahoma- Leans Republican 

Oregon- Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat

Rhode Island- Leans Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

South Carolina- Likely Republican

South Dakota- Likely Republican

Tennessee- Leans Republican 

Texas- Tossup (R) 

Vermont- Leans Republican

Wisconsin- Leans Democrat

Wyoming- Safe Republican 

 

Total with predictions:

28 D (6 holdover, 5 Safe,  6 Likely, 9 Leans, 2 Tossup)

22 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe,  4 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 4

 

These races as a whole are not getting as much attention as the contests for U.S. Senate and seemingly less national press than a Gubernatorial class typically gets in a midterm. Of course, some have been very much in the news such as the race in Ohio.

 

Clearly, I am increasingly buying in to a blue wave coming on Tuesday across the board. That does not mean that Republicans do not have hard to crack leads in many red states. The polling will need to be wrong and just about all conventional wisdom would need to be wrong though for this to be a much better election night for Republicans than expected. Some have rightly pointed out that the party of Donald Trump did manage to do better than polls showed in the three elections where he was on the ballot. That was not really the case in the midterm year of 2018 though nor was it in the Biden midterm year of 2022. In that latter, there was supposed to be a "red wave", and while Republicans did narrowly win the House, as everyone anticipated, they lost some very high profile contests along the way. When Trump is not on the ballot, a lot of his voters just stay home or perhaps even revert to voting for Democrats.

I will have more to add tomorrow when I formally predict the Senate races and perhaps Monday as well, when if needed, I will finalize any predictions. For now, I am of the mind that a strong year for Democrats and reports about early voting anecdotes in the states are leading me to believe that a one term Republican incumbent will now narrowly lose in Nevada. Also, the one race I am most going out on a limb on is that an African-American woman will now win an open Gubernatorial race in Georgia. If I am wrong on that one, I will not at all be surprised, but it seems like the reelection campaign of the incumbent Senator, against a weak and divisive Republican opponent, could have coattails.

 

Plus, with all the talk Donald Trump has been engaged in lately on asses, it has to mean good news for a candidate named Bottoms.

 

Past Results:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%) 

2022:  34-2 (94%)

2024: 11-0 (100%) 

U.S. House Predictions: Utah-Wyoming

4 Days Until Election Day

Utah

1. Ben McAdams D vs. Riley Owen R (Harris 60%)- Likely D

2. Peter Crosby D vs. Blake Moore R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

3. Kent Udell D vs. Celeste Maloy R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

4. Jonny Larsen D vs. Mike Kennedy R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

 

UT current: 0 D, 4 R

UT predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 198 D, 204 R

 

Predicted:

 

220 D (128 Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

182 R ( 68  Safe, 76 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

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Vermont

 

1. Becca Balint D vs. Gerald Malloy R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

 

VT current: 1 D, 0 R

VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 199 D, 204 R

 

 

Predicted:

 

221 D (129 Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

182 R ( 68  Safe, 76 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Virginia

 

1. Shannon Taylor D vs. Rob Wittman R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

2. Elaine Luria D vs. Jen Kiggans R (Trump 50%) - Leans D

3. Bobby Scott D vs. Edwin Rivera R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

4. Jennifer McClellan D vs. Robert Murray R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

5. Tom Perriello D vs. John McGuire R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

6. Beth Macy D vs. Ben Cline R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

7. Eugene Vindman D vs. Doug Ollivant R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

8. Don Beyer D vs. Tony Sabio R (Harris 74%)- Safe D

9. Joy Powers D vs. Morgan Griffith R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

10. Suhas Subramanyam D vs. Dave Beckwith R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

11. James Walkinshaw D vs. Arthur Perves R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

VA current: 6 D, 5 R

VA predicted: 8 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 205 D, 209 R

 

Predicted:

 

229 D (133 Safe, 55 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

185 R ( 69  Safe, 77 Likely, 31 Leans,   8 Tossup)

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Washington

 

1. Suzan DelBene D vs. Mary Silva R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

2. Rick Larsen D vs. Edwin Feller R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

3. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D vs. John Braun R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

4. John Duresky D vs. Amanda McKinney R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

5. Carmela Conroy D vs. Michael Baumgartner R (Trump 54%)- Leans R

6. Emily Randall D vs. Teresa Fox R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

7. Pramila Jayapal D vs. Nirav Sheth R (Harris 86%)- Safe D

8. Kim Schrier D vs. Spencer Meline R (Harris 51%)- Likely D 

9. Adam Smith D vs. Doug Basler R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

10. Marilyn Strickland D vs. Chris Chung R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

WA current: 8 D, 2 R

WA predicted: 8 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 213 D, 211 R

 

Predicted:

 

237 D (139 Safe, 56 Likely, 27 Leans, 15 Tossup)

187 R ( 69  Safe, 78 Likely, 32 Leans,   8 Tossup)

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West Virginia

 

1. Vince George D vs. Carol Miller R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

2. Ace Parsi D vs. Riley Moore R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

 

WV current: 0 D, 2 R

WV predicted: 0 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 213 D, 213 R

 

Predicted:

 

237 D (139 Safe, 56 Likely, 27 Leans, 15 Tossup)

189 R ( 71  Safe, 78 Likely, 32 Leans,   8 Tossup)

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Wisconsin

 

1. Mitchell Berman D vs. Bryan Steil R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (R)

2. Mark Pocan D (Harris 69%)- Safe D

3. Rebecca Cooke D vs. Derrick Van Orden R (Trump 53%)- Leans D

4. Gwen Moore D vs. Tim Rogers R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

5. Andy Beck D vs. Scott Fitzgerald R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

6. Brad Smith D vs. Glenn Grothman R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

7. Fred Clark D vs. Michael Alfonso R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

8. Rick Crosson D vs. Tony Wied R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

WI current: 2 D, 6 R

WI predicted: 3 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 215 D, 219 R

 

 

Predicted:

 

240 D (141 Safe, 56 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

194 R ( 71  Safe, 79 Likely, 35 Leans,  9  Tossup)

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Wyoming 

 

1. Lisa Kinney D vs. Chuck Gray R (Trump 72%)- Likely R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R

WY predicted: 0 D , 1 R

 

Current total: 215 D, 220 R 

 

Predicted:

 

240 D (141 Safe, 56 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

195 R ( 71  Safe, 80 Likely, 35 Leans,  9  Tossup)

 

 DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF 25 SEATS

 

 

U.S. House Predictions: Texas

5 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Yolanda Prince D vs. Nathaniel Moran R (Trump 74%)- Safe R

2. Shaun Finnie D vs. Steve Toth R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

3. Evan Hunt D vs. Keith Self R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

4. Jason Pearce D vs. Pat Fallon R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

5. Chelsey Hockett D vs. Lance Gooden R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

6. Danny Minton D vs. Jake Ellzey R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

7. Lizzie Fletcher D vs. Alexander Hale R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

8. Laura Jones D vs Jessica Steinmann R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

9. Letty Gutierrez D vs. Alex Mealer R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

10. Caitlin Rourk D vs. Chris Gober R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

11. Claire Reynolds D vs. August Pfluger R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

12. Heidi Rodriguez Prillman D vs. Craig Goldman R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

13. Mark Nair D vs. Ronny Jackson R (Trump 73%)- Likely R

14. Thurman Bartie D vs. Randy Weber R (Trump 62%)- Likely R

15. Bobby Pulido D vs. Monica De La Cruz R (Trump 59%)- Leans D

16. Veronica Escobar D vs. Adam Bauman R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

17. Casey Shepard D vs. Pete Sessions R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

18. Christian Menefee D vs. Ronald Dwayne Whitfield R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

19. Kyle Rable D vs. Tom Sell R (Trump 75%)- Safe R

20. Joaquin Castro D vs. Edgardo Baez R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

21. Kristen Hook D vs. Mark Teixeira R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

22. Marquette Greene-Scott D vs. Trever Nehls R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

23. Katy Padilla Stout D vs. Brandon Herrera R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (R)

24. Kevin Burge D vs. Beth Van Duyne R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

25. Dione Sims D vs. Roger Williams R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

26. Steven Shook D vs. Brandon Gill R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

27. Tanya Lloyd D vs. Michel Cloud R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

28. Henry Cuellar D vs. Tano Tijerina R (Trump 55%)- Likely D

29. Sylvia Garcia D vs. Martha Fierro R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

30. Frederick Haynes D vs. Everett Jackson R (Harris 73%)- Safe D

31. Justin Early D vs. John Carter R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

32. Dan Barrios D vs. Jace Yarborough R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

33. Colin Allred D vs. Patrick Gillespie R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

34. Vicente Gonzalez D vs. Eric Flores R (Trump 55%)- Leans D

35. Johnny Garcia D vs. Carlos De La Cruz R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

36. Rhonda Hart D vs. Brian Babin R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

37. Greg Casar D vs. Lauren Pena R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

38. Melissa McDonough D vs. Jon Bonck R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

TX current: 13 D, 25 R

TX predicted: 12 D, 26 R

 

Current total: 198 D, 200 R

 

Predicted:

 

219 D (128 Safe, 52 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

179 R ( 67  Safe, 74 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Pennsylvania- Tennessee

6 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania

 

1. Bob Harvie D vs. Brian Fitzpatrick R (Harris 50%)- Tossup (D)

2. Brendan Boyle D vs. Jessica Arriaga R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

3. Chris Rabb D vs. Dennis Mahoney I (Harris 88%)- Safe D

4. Madeleine Dean D vs. Auora Stuski R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

5. Mary Gay Scanlon D vs. Nick Manganaro R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

6. Chrissy Houlahan D vs. Marty Young R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

7. Bob Brooks D vs. Ryan Mackenize R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

8. Paige Cognetti D vs. Rob Bresnahan R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

9. Rachel Wallace D vs. Dan Meuser R (Trump 69%)- Likely R

10. Janelle Stelson D vs. Scott Perry R (Trump 52%)- Leans D

11. Nancy Mannion D vs. Lloyd Smucker R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

12. Summer Lee D vs. James Hayes R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

13. Beth Farnham D vs. John Joyce R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

14. Alan Bradstock D vs. Guy Reschenthaler R (Trump 66%)- Likely R

15. Ray Bliger D vs. Glenn Thompson R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

16. Justin Wagner D vs. Mike Kelly R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

17. Chris Deluzio D vs. Tony Guy R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

PA current: 7 D, 10 R

PA predicted: 11 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 181 D, 160 R

 

Predicted:

 

204 D (118 Safe, 50 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

137 R ( 55  Safe, 51 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

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Rhode Island

 

1. Gabe Amo D vs. Kellie Keenan R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

2. Seth Magaziner D vs. Vic Mellor R (Harris 52%)= Likely D

RI current: 2 D, 0 R

RI predicted: 2 D , 0 R

 

Current total: 183 D, 160 R

 

Predicted:

 

206 D (119 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

137 R ( 55  Safe, 51 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

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South Carolina

 

1. Nancy Lacore D vs. Jenny Honeycutt R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

2. Zyon Khalifa D vs. Joe Wilson R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

3. Eunice Lehmacher D vs. Sheri Biggs R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

4. Courtney McClain D vs. William Timmons R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

5. Mallory Dittmer D vs. Wes Climer R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

6. Jim Clyburn D vs. John Peterson R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

7. John Vincent D vs. Russell Fry R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

SC current: 1 D, 6 R

SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 184 D, 166 R

 

Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

143 R ( 58  Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans,   7 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________ 

 

South Dakota

 

1. Nikki Gronil D vs. Marty Jackley R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

SD current: 0 D, 1 R

SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 184 D, 167 R

 

Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

144 R ( 58  Safe, 54 Likely, 25 Leans,   7 Tossup)

___________________________________________________

 

Tennessee

 

1. Kristi Burke D vs. Diana Harshbarger R (Trump 78%)- Safe R

2. Michaela Barnett D vs. Tim Burchett R (Trump 66%)- Likely R

3. Anna Golladay D vs. Chuck Fleischmann R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

4. Victoria Broderick D vs. Scott DesJarlais R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

5. Chaz Molder D vs. Charlie Hatcher R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

6. Mike Croley D vs. Johnny Garrett R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

7. Darden Copeland D vs. Matt Van Epps R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

8. Heidi Kuhn D vs. David Kustoff R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

9. Justin Pearson D vs. Brent Taylor R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

 

TN current: 1 D, 8 R

TN predicted: 0 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 185 D, 175 R

 

 Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

153 R ( 60  Safe, 59 Likely, 27 Leans,   7 Tossup)

 

NFL Week 7 Results and Week 8 Games

7 Days Until Election Day

Unlike my picks for the 2026 election, there are not predictions

Week 7

 

1.  Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2) W 1

 

 

 

2.   Steelers (4-2) vs Saints (2-4) in Saint-Denis, France W 2

3.   49ers (6-0) at Falcons (2-4) W 3

4.   Bengals (3-2) at Ravens (4-2) W 4

5.   Buccaneers (1-5) at Panthers (3-2) W 5

6.   Giants (3-2-1) at Texans (2-4) L 1

7.   Colts (2-4) at Vikings (5-0) L 2

8.   Dolphins (0-5) at Jets (2-4) W 6

9.   Browns (4-2) at Titans (1-5) L 3

10. Broncos (4-2) at Cardinals (2-4) W 7

11.  Packers (4-2) at Lions (3-2) W 8

12.  Rams (2-4) at Raiders (3-3) L 4

13.  Chiefs (5-0) at Seahawks (3-3) L 5

 

14.  Cowboys (2-4) at Eagles (2-4) W 9

 

Week 7 Results: 9-5 (64%)

Overall Results: 55-51 (52%)

___________________________________________________________ 

 

Week 8

 

1. Panthers (3-3) at Packers (4-3)

 

 

 

2.  Ravens (4-3) at Bills (5-1)

3.  Titans (1-5) at Bengals (4-2)

4.  Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)

5.  Vikings (6-0) at Lions (4-2)

6.  Colts (2-5) at Jaguars (4-2)

7.  Raiders (3-4) at Jets (2-5)

8.  Browns (5-2) at Steelers (5-2)

9.  Falcons (3-4) at Buccaneers (2-5)

10.  Chargers (0-6) at Rams (3-4)

11.  Chiefs (5-1) at Broncos (5-2)

12.  Patriots (4-3) at Dolphins (1-5)

13.  Eagles (2-5) at Commanders (1-4-1)

 

14.  Bears (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)

U.S. House Predictions: New York- Oregon

8 Days Until Election Day

New York

1. Chris Gallant D vs. Nick LaLota R (Trump 54%)- Leans R 

2. Pat Halpin D vs. Andrew Garbarino R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

3. Tom Suozzi D vs. Mike LiPetri R (Trump 51%)- Likely D

4. Laura Gillen D vs. Jeanine Driscoll R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

5. Gregory Meeks D vs. George Marsh R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

6. Grace Meng D vs. Joseph Chou R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Claire Valdez D vs. Melvin Rivera R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

8. Hakeem Jeffries D vs. Lewis Mizrahi R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

9. Yvette Clark D vs. Joel Azumah R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

10. Brad Lander D vs. Jennifer Moore R  (Harris 79%)- Safe D

11. Mike DeCillis D vs. Nicole Malliotakis R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

12. Micah Lasher D vs. Caroline Shinkle R (Harris 81%)- Safe D

13. Darializa Avila Chevalier D vs. Jomo Williams R (Harris 79%)- Safe D

14. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D vs. Diamant Hysenaj R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

15. Andre Easton I vs. Ritchie Torres D vs. Stylo Sapaskis R (Harris 74%)- Safe D

16. George Latimer D vs. Joe Cinquemani R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

17. Cait Conley D vs. Mike Lawler R (Harris 50%)- Leans D

18. Pat Ryan D vs. Jackie Auringer R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

19. Josh Riley D vs. Peter Oberacker R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

20. Paul Tonko D vs. Ralph Ambrosio R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

21. Blake Gendebien D vs. Anthony Constantino R (Trump 60%)- Tossup (R)

22. John Mannion D vs. Kailee Buller R  (Harris 54%)- Likely D

23. Aaron Gies D vs. Nick Langworthy R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

24. Alissa Ellman D vs. Claudia Tenney R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

25. Joe Morelle D vs. Virginia McIntyre R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

26. Tim Kennedy D vs. Dennis Hannon R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

NY current: 19 D, 7 R

NY predicted: 20 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 160 D, 123 R

 

Predicted:

 

177 D (107 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 10 Tossup)

106 R ( 43 Safe,  37 Likely, 20 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________ 

 

North Carolina

 

1. Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckhout R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

2. Deborah Ross D vs. Gene Douglass R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

3. Raymond Smith D vs. Greg Murphy R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Max Ganorkar R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

5. Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

6. Cyril Jefferson D vs. Addison McDowell R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

7. Kimberly Hardy D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

8. Colby Watson D vs. Mark Harris R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

9. Richard Ojeda D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

10. Ashley Bell D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

11. Jamie Ager D vs. Jennifer Balkcom R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

12. Alma Adams D vs. Jack Codiga R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

13. Paul Barringer D vs. Brad Knott R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

14. LaKesha Womack D vs. Tim Moore R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

 

NC current: 4 D, 10 R

NC predicted:  5 D, 9 R

Current total: 164 D, 133 R

 

Predicted:

 

182 D (110 Safe, 43 Likely, 18 Leans, 11 Tossup)

115 R ( 45 Safe,  42 Likely, 22 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

 

North Dakota

1. Trygve Hammer vs. Julie Fedorchak R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

 

ND current: 0 D, 1 R

ND predicted;  0 D, 1 R

Current total: 164 D, 134 R

 

Predicted:

 

182 D (110 Safe, 43 Likely, 18 Leans, 11 Tossup)

116 R ( 46  Safe, 42 Likely, 22 Leans,   6 Tossup)

 _________________________________________________________________

 

Ohio

 

1. Greg Landsman D vs. Eric Conroy R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

2. Jen Mazzuckelli D vs. Dave Taylor R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

3. Joyce Beatty D vs. Cleophus Dulaney R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

4. Josh Kolasinski D  vs, Tracey Tackett I vs. Jim Jordan R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

5. Brian Shaver D vs. Bob Latta R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

6. Elizabeth Kirtley D vs. Michael Rulli R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

7. Brian Poindexter D vs. Max Miller R (Trump 55%)- Leans D

8. Vanessa Enoch D vs. Warren Davidson R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

9. Marcy Kaptur D vs. Derek Merrin R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

10. Kristina Knickerbocker D vs. Mike Turner R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

11. Shontel Brown D vs. Mike Kirchner R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

12. Jerrad Christian D vs. Troy Balderson R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

13. Emilia Sykes D vs. Carey Coleman R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

14. Maria Jukic D vs. Dave Joyce R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

15. Don Leonard D vs. Mike Carey R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

 

OH current: 5 D, 10 R

OH predicted: 6 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 169 D, 144 R 

Predicted:

 

188 D (112 Safe, 44 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

125 R ( 50  Safe, 45 Likely, 24 Leans,   6 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________

 

Oklahoma

 

1. John Croisant D vs. Mark Tedford R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

2. Brandon Wade D vs. Josh Brecheen R (Trump 77%)- Safe R

3. Suzie Byrd D vs. Frank Lucas R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

4. Mitchell Jacob D vs. Tom Cole R (Trump 66%)- Safe R

5. Jena Nelson D vs. Stephanie Bice R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

 

OK current: 0 D, 5 R

OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 169 D, 149 R

 

Predicted:

 

188 D (112 Safe, 44 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

130 R ( 53  Safe, 46 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________

Oregon

 

1. Suzanne Bonamici D vs. Barbara Kahl R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

2. Chris Beck D vs. Cliff Bentz R (Trump 62%)- Likely R

3. Maxine Dexter D vs. Loran Ayles R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

4. Val Hoyle D vs. Monique DeSpain R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

5. Janelle Bynum D vs. Patti Adair R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

6. Andrea Salinas D vs. David Russ R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

OR current: 5 D, 1 R

OR predicted: 5 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 174 D, 150 R

 

Predicted:

 

193 D (114 Safe, 47 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

131 R ( 53  Safe, 47 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Nebraska- New Mexico

9 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska

 

1. Chris Backemeyer D vs. Mike Flood R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

2. Denise Powell D vs. Brinker Harding R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

3. Becky Stille D vs.  Adrian Smith R (Trump 76%)- Safe R

NE current: 0 D, 3 R

NE predicted: 1 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 112 R

 

Predicted:

 

138 D (89 Safe, 28 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans, 5 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Nevada

 

1. Dina Titus D vs. Carrie Buck R (Harris 50%) - Leans D

2. Teresa Benitez-Thompson D vs. David Flippo R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (D)

3. Susie Lee D vs. Marty O'Donnell R (Trump 50%)- Likely D

4. Steven Horsford D vs. Cody Whipple R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

NV current: 3 D, 1 R

NV predicted: 4 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 127 D, 113 R

 

Predicted:

 

142 D (89 Safe, 30 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans,  5 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________ 

 

New Hampshire

 

1. Stefany Shaheen D vs. Anthony DiLorenzo R (Harris 51%)- Leans D

2. Maggie Goodlander D vs. Lily Tang Williams R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

NH current: 2 D, 0 R

NH predicted: 2 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 129 D, 113 R 

 

Predicted:

 

144 D (89 Safe, 31 Likely, 14 Leans, 10 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans,   5 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________

 

 New Jersey

 

1. Donald Norcross D vs. Damon Galdo R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

2. Zack Mullock D vs. Jeff Van Drew R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

3. Herb Conaway D vs. Michael McGuire R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Rachel Peace D vs. Chris Smith R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. Josh Gottheimer D vs. Sean Kirrane R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

6. Frank Pallone D vs. Hillary Herzig R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Rebecca Bennett D vs. Tom Kean R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

8. Rob Menendez D vs Ari Eliopoulos I (Harris 61%)- Safe D

9. Nellie Pou D vs. Rosie Pino R (Trump 49%)- Likely D

10. LaMonica McIver D vs. Carmen Bucco R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

11. Analilia Mejia D vs. Joe Hathaway R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

12. Adam Hamaway D vs. Gregg Mele R (Harris 61%)- Likely D

NJ current: 9 D, 3 R

NJ predicted: 10 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 138 D, 116 R

 

Predicted:

 

154 D (93 Safe, 36 Likely, 15 Leans, 10 Tossup)

100 R (43 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans,   5 Tossup)

__________________________________________________________________________

 

New Mexico

 

1. Melanie Stansbury D vs. Didi Okpareke R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

2. Gabe Vasquez D vs. Greg Cunningham R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

3. Teresa Leger Fernandez D vs. Martin Zamora R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

NM current: 3 D, 0 R

NM predicted: 3 D, 0 R

Current total: 141 D, 116 R

 

Predicted:

 

157 D (93 Safe, 38 Likely, 16 Leans, 10 Tossup)

100 R (43 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans,   5 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________

 

U.S. House Predictions: Maine- Montana

10 Days Until Election Day

Maine

 

1. Chellie Pingree D vs. Ron Russell R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

2. Matt Dunlap D vs. Paul LePage R (Trump 54%)- Tossup (D)

 

ME current: 2 D, 0 R

ME predicted: 2 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 95 D, 86 R 

 

Predicted:

 

105 D (67 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  76 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________________

 

Maryland

 

1. Dan Schwartz D vs. Andy Harris R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

2. Johnny Olszewski D vs Dave Wallace R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

3. Sarah Elfreth D vs. Berney Flowers R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

4. Glenn Ivey D vs. George McDermott R (Harris 86%)- Safe D

5. Adrian Boafo D vs. Chris Chaffee R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

6. April McClain Delaney D vs. Robin Ficker R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Kweisi Mfume D vs. Scott Collier R (Harris 78%)- Safe D

8. Jamie Raskin D vs. Cheryl Riley R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

 

MD current: 7 D, 1 R

MD predicted: 7 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 102 D, 87 R 

 

Predicted:

 

112 D (74 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  77 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 15 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Massachusetts

 

1, Richard Neal D vs. Nadia Milleron I (Harris 56%)- Safe D

2. Jim McGovern D (Harris 61%)- Safe D

3. Lori Trahan D vs. Gary Grossi R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

4. Jake Auchincloss D vs. Tom Stalcup R (Harris 59%)= Safe D

5. Katherine Clark D vs (Derek Fleming I) (Harris 71%)- Safe D

6. Dan Koh D vs. Micah Jones R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

7. Ayanna Pressley D (Harris 80%) - Safe D

8. Stephen Lynch D vs. Rob Burke R (Harris 62%)- Safe D

9. Bill Keating D vs. Tyler Macallister R  (Harris 55%)- Likely D

MA current: 9 D, 0 R

MA predicted: 9 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 111 D, 87 R

 

Predicted:

 

121 D (81 Safe, 23 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  77 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 15 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________ 

 

Michigan

 

1. Callie Barr D vs. Jack Bergman R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

2. Ben Ambrose D vs. John Moolenaar R (Trump 64%)- Likely R

3. Hillary Scholten D vs. Terri DeBoer R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Sean McCann D vs. Bill Huizenga R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

5. Christian Vukasovich D vs. Tim Walberg R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

6. Debbie Dingell D vs. Heather Smiley R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

7. William Lawrence D vs. Tom Barrett R (Trump 50%)- Tossup (D)

8. Kristen McDonald Rivet D vs. Tom Smith R (Trump 50%)- Likely D

9. Ray Pooley D vs. Lisa McClain R (Trump 66%)- Safe R

10. Christina Hines D vs. Mike Bouchard R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

11. Jeremy Moss D vs. Ethan Baker R (Harris 57%)- Likely D

12. Rashida Tlaib D vs. James Hooper R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

13. Donovan McKinney D vs. TP Nykoriak R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

 

MI current: 6 D, 7 R

MI predicted: 9 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 117 D, 94 R

 

Predicted:

 

130 D (84 Safe, 26 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  81 R (34 Safe, 28 Likely, 16 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________ 

 

Minnesota

 

1. Jake Johnson D vs. Brad Finstad R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

2. Matt Little D vs. Eric Pratt R (Harris 52%)- Leans D

3. Kelly Morrison D vs. Tyler Bass R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

4. Betty McCollum D vs. Paul Wikstrom R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

5. Ilhan Omar D vs. John Nagel R (Harris 80%)- Safe D

6. Doug Chapin D vs. Tom Emmer R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

7. Erik Osberg D vs. Michelle Fishbach R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

8. Trina Swanson D vs. Pete Stauber R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

 

MN current: 4 D, 4 R

MN predicted: 4 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 121 D, 98 R

 

Predicted:

 

134 D (87 Safe, 26 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  85 R (34 Safe, 31 Likely, 17 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________ 

Mississippi

 

1. Cliff Johnson D vs. Trent Kelly R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

2. Bennie Thompson D vs. Ron Eller R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

3. Michael Chiaradio D vs. Michael Guest R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

4. Jeffrey Hulum D vs. Mike Ezell R (Trump 71%)- Likely R

MS current: 1 D, 3 R

MS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total:  122 D, 101 R

 

Predicted:

 

135 D (88 Safe, 26 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  88 R (36 Safe, 32 Likely, 17 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Missouri

 

1. Wesley Bell D vs. Paul Berry R (Harris 78%)- Safe D

2. Fred Wellman D vs, Ann Wagner R (Trump 53%)- Tossup (R)

3. Bethany Mann D vs Bob Onder R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

4. Jordan Herrera D vs. Mark Alford R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

5. Emanuel Cleaver D vs. Rick Brattin R (Harris 61%)- Likely D

6. Josh Smead D vs. Chris Stigall R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

7. Missi Hesketh D vs. Eric Burlison R (Trump 71%)= Safe R

8. Chris Reichard D vs. Jason Smith R (Trump 77%)- Safe R

 

MO current: 2 D, 6 R

MO predicted: 2 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 107 R

 

Predicted:

 

137 D (89 Safe, 27 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  94 R (41 Safe, 32 Likely, 17 Leans, 4 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________________ 

 

Montana

 

1. Sam Forstag D vs. Aaron Flint R (Trump 54%)- Tossup (R)

2. Brian Miller D vs. Troy Downing R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

MT current: 0 D, 2 R

MT predicted: 0 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 109 R

 

Predicted:

 

137 D (89 Safe, 27 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  96 R (41 Safe, 33 Likely, 17 Leans, 5 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Idaho- Louisiana

11 Days Until Election Day

 

Idaho

 

1. Kaylee Peterson D vs. Sarah Zabel I vs. Russ Fulcher R (Trump 71%)- Likely R

2. Ellie Gilbreath D vs. Mike Simpson R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

 

ID current: 0 D, 2 R

ID predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 73 D, 60 R 

 

Predicted:

 

80 D (55 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

53 R (17 Safe, 21 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Illinois

 

1. Jonathan Jackson D vs. Christian Maxwell R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

2. Donna Miller D vs. Mike Noack R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

3. Delia Ramirez D vs. Angel Oakley R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

4. Ed Hershey I vs. Patty Garcia D vs. Chris Getty I vs. Lupe Castillo R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

5. Mike Quigley D vs. Tommy Hanson R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

6. Sean Casten D vs. Niki Conforti R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

7. LaShawn Ford D vs. Chad Koppie R (Harris 82%)- Safe D

8. Melissa Bean D vs. Jennifer Davis R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

9. Daniel Biss D vs. John Elleson R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

10. Brad Schneider D vs. Carl Lambrecht R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

11. Bill Foster D vs. Jeff Walter R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

12. Julie Fortier D vs. Mike Bost R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

13. Nikki Budzinksi D vs. Jeff Wilson R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

14. Lauren Underwood D vs. Jim Marter R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

15. Jennifer Todd D vs. Mary Miller R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

16. Paul Nolley D vs. Darin LaHood R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

17. Eric Sorensen D vs. Dillan Vancil R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

IL current: 14 D, 3 R

IL predicted: 14 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 87 D, 63 R 

 

Predicted:

 

94 D (63 Safe, 19 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

56 R (19 Safe, 22 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Indiana

1. Frank Mrvan D vs. Barb Regnitz R (Harris 49%)- Likely D

2. Jamee Decio D vs. Rudy Yakym R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

3. Kelly Thompson D vs. Marlin Stutzman R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

4. Drew Cox D vs. Jim Baird R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. JD Ford D vs. Victoria Spartz R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

6. Cinde Wirth D vs. Jefferson Shreve R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

7. Andre Carson D vs. Patrick McAuley R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

8. Mary Allen D vs. Mark Messmer R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

9. Brad Meyer D vs. Erin Houchin R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

 

IN current: 2 D, 7 R

IN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

 

Current total: 89 D, 70 R

 

Predicted:

 

96 D (64 Safe, 20 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

63 R (24 Safe, 23 Likely, 13 Leans, 3 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________

Iowa

 

1. Christina Bohannan D vs. Marianette Miller-Meeks R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

2. Lindsay James D vs. Joe Mitchell R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

3. Sarah Trone Garriott D vs. Zach Nunn R (Trump 52%)- Leans D

4. Dave Dawson D vs. Chris McGowan R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

IA current: 0 D, 4 R

IA predicted: 3 D, 1 R

 

Current total:  89 D, 74 R

 

Predicted:

 

99 D (64 Safe, 20 Likely, 11 Leans, 4 Tossup)

64 R (24 Safe, 24 Likely, 13 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Kansas

1. Lauren Reinhold D vs. Tracey Mann R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

2. Don Coover D vs. Derek Schmidt R (Trump 59%)- Leans R

3. Sharice Davids D vs. Eric Jenkins R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

4. Katy Tyndell D vs, Ron Estes R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

KS current: 1 D, 3 R

KS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 90 D, 77 R

Predicted:

 

100 D (64 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 4 Tossup)

  67 R (25 Safe, 25 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________

 

Kentucky

1. John Williams D vs. James Comer R (Trump 73%)- Safe R

2. Megan Wingfield D vs. Brett Guthrie R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

3. Morgan McGarvey D vs. Maria Teresa Rodriguez R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

4. Melissa Strange D vs. Jeremy Todd I vs. Ed Gallrein R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

5. Ned Pillersdorf D vs. Hal Rogers R (Trump 81%)- Safe R

6. Zach Dembo D vs. Ralph Alvarado R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (D)

 

KY current: 1 D, 5 R

KY predicted: 2 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 91 D, 82 R

 

Predicted:

 

102 D (65 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 5 Tossup)

  71 R (28 Safe, 26 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

______________________________________________________

 

Louisiana

 

1. Lauren Jewett D vs. Randy Arrington R vs. Steve Scalise R (Trump 68%)- Safe R/Safe Scalise

2. Troy Carter D vs. Renada Collins D vs. Peter Williams R (Harris 73%)- Safe D/Safe Carter

3. John Day D vs. Priscilla Gonzalez D vs. Caleb Walker D vs. Kate Cotten R vs .Clay Higgins R (Trump 67%)- Safe R/Safe Higgins

4. Conrad Cable D vs. Matt Gromlich D vs. Gordon Heslop R vs. Mike Johnson R vs. Mike Nichols R (Trump 67%)- Safe R/Safe Johnson

5. Dan McKay D vs. Pat Moore D vs. Antonio Wilson D vs, Stewart Cathey R vs, Misti Cordell R vs. Oscar Dantzler R vs. Michael Echols R vs. Gabe Firment R vs. Austin Magee R (Trump 66%)- Safe R/Tossup (Cathey)

6. Chauna Banks D vs. Pat Forbes D vs. Lindsay Garcia D vs. Monique Appeaning R vs. Larry Davis R vs. Rick Edmonds R vs. Michael Mebruer R vs. Blake Miguez R vs. Stephen Wagley R (Trump 64%)- Likely R/Leans Miguez

 

LA current: 2 D, 4 R

LA predicted: 1 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 93 D, 86 R

Predicted:

 

103 D (66 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 5 Tossup)

  76 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Florida- Hawai'i

12 Days Until Election Day

 

Florida

 

1. Gay Valimont D vs. Jimmy Patronis R (Trump 68%)- Likely R

2. Amanda Marie Green D vs. Austin Rogers R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

3. Seth Harp D vs. Kat Cammack R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

4. LaShonda Holloway D vs. Aaron Bean R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

5. Rachel Grage D vs. John Rutherford R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

6. Eric Yonce D vs. Randy Fine R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

7. Bale Dalton D vs. Ryan Elijah R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

8. Jennifer Jenkins D vs. Mike Haridopolos R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

9. Darren Soto D vs. Dan Green R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

10. Maxwell Frost D (Harris 61%)- Safe D

11. James Pericola D vs. Joe Strada R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

12. Kimberly Overman D vs. Gus Bilirakis R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

13. Leela Gray D vs. Anna Paulina Luna R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

14. Kathy Castor D vs. Mike Beltran R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

15. Robert People D vs. Laurel Lee R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

16. Kelly Kirschner D vs. Sydney Gruters R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

17. Matthew Montavon D vs. Greg Steube R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

18. Curtis Gibson D vs. Scott Franklin R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

19. Victor Arias D vs. Jim Schwartzel R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

20. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D vs. Brent Andersen R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

21. James Martin D vs. Brian Mast R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

22. Pia Dandiya D vs. Casey Askar R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

23. Lois Frankel D vs. Deb Adeimy R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

24. Oliver Gilbert D vs. Te Brown R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

25. Jared Moskowitz D vs. Scott Singer R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

26. Nicole Locklin D vs. Mario Diaz-Balart R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

27. Elliott Rodriguez D vs. Maria Elvira Salazar R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

28. Phil Ehr D vs. Carlos Gimenez R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

 

FL current: 8 D, 20 R

FL predicted: 7 D, 21 R

 

Current total: 66 D, 49 R

 

Predicted:

 

73 D (49 Safe, 12 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

42 R (13 Safe, 14 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________

 

Georgia

 

1. Amanda Hollowell D vs. Jim Kingston R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

2. Sanford Bishop D vs. Matt Day R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

3. Maura Keller D vs. Brian Jack R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

4. Hank Johnson D vs. Jim Duffie R (Harris 76%)- Safe D

5. Nikema Williams D vs. John Salvesen R (Harris 85%)- Safe D

6. Lucy McBath D vs. Kevin Martin R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

7. Tony Kozycki D vs. Rich McCormick R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

8. Kelly Esti D vs. Austin Scott R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

9. Caitlyn Gegen D vs. Andrew Clyde R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

10. Pam DeLancy D vs. Houston Gaines R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

11. Chris Harden D vs. John Cowan R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

12. Ceretta Smith D vs. Rick Allen R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

13. Jasmine Clark D vs, Jonathan Chavez R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

14. Shawn Harris D vs. Clay Fuller R (Trump 68%)- Likely R

GA current: 5 D, 9 R

GA predicted: 5 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 71 D, 58 R

 

Predicted:

 

78 D (53 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

51 R (16 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

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Hawai'i

 

1. Ed Case D vs. Adriel Lam R (Harris 62%)- Safe D

2. Jill Tokuda D vs. Brenton Awa R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

 

HI current: 2 D, 0 R

HI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 73 D, 58 R 

 

Predicted:

 

80 D (55 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

51 R (16 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: California- Delaware

13 Days Until Election Day

 

California

1. Mike McGuire D vs. James Gallagher R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

2. Jared Huffman D vs. Robin Littau R (Harris 61%)- Safe D 

3. Ami Bera D vs. Robb Tucker R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Mike Thompson D vs. Eric Jones D (Harris 56%)- Safe D/Likely Thompson

5. Michael Masuda D vs. Tom McClintock R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

6. Richard Pan D vs. Kevin Kiley I (Harris 53%)- Leans D

7. Mai Vang D vs. Doris Matsui D (Harris 55%)- Safe D/Tossup (Matsui)

8. John Garamendi D vs. Rudy Recile R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

9. Josh Harder D vs. John McBride R (Harris 54%)- Safe D

10. Mark DeSaulnier D vs. Jeff Frese R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

11. Connie Chan D vs. Scott Wiener D (Harris 82%)- Safe D/Leans Wiener

12. Lateefah Simon D vs. Jamie Joyce D (Harris 85%)- Safe D/Safe Simon

13. Adam Gray D vs. Kevin Lincoln R (Harris 49%)-  Leans D

14. Aisha Wahab D vs. Melissa Hernandez D (Harris 65%)- Safe D/Leans Wahab

15. Kevin Mullin D vs. Charles Hoelter R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

16. Sam Liccardo D vs. Peter Soule R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

17. Ro Khanna D vs. Ritesh Tandon R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

18. Zoe Lofgren D vs. Shane Lewis R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

19. Jimmy Panetta D vs. Peter Verbica R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

20. Sandra Van Scotter D vs. Vince Fong R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

21. Jim Costa D vs. Kyle Kirkland R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

22. Randy Villegas D vs. David Valadao R (Trump 50%)- Tossup (D)

23. Tessa Lynn Hodge D vs. Jay Obernolte R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

24. Salud Carbajal D vs. Bob Smith R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

25. Raul Ruiz D vs. Joe Males R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

26. Jacqui Irwin D vs. Sam Gallucci R (Harris 56%)- Likely D

27. George Whitesides D vs. Jason Gibbs R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

28. Judy Chu D vs. April Verlato R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

29. Angelica Duenas D vs. Luz Rivas D (Harris 65%)- Safe D/Likely Rivas

30. Laura Friedman D vs Scott Meyers R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

31. Gil Cisneros D vs. Eric Ching R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

32. Brad Sherman D vs. Larry Thompson R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

33. Pete Aguilar D vs. Stephanie Vargas R (Harris 53%)- Safe D

34. Angela Gonzales-Torres D vs. Jimmy Gomez D (Harris 73%)- Safe D/Leans Gonzales-Torres

35. Norma Torres D vs. Mike Cargile R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

36. Ted Lieu D vs. Houston Brigano R (Harris 68%))- Safe D

37. Samantha Mota D vs. Sydney Kamlager-Dove D (Harris 79%)- Safe D/Likely Kamlager-Dove

38. Hilda Solis D vs. Pedro Casas R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

39. Mark Takano D vs. Steve Manos R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

40. Young Kim R vs. Ken Calvert R (Trump 55%)- Safe R/Tossup (Calvert)

41. Linda Sanchez D vs. Mitch Clemmons R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

42. Robert Garcia D vs. Brian Burley R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

43. Maxine Waters D vs. Christian Morales R (Harris 73%)- Safe D

44. Nanette Barragan D vs. Genevieve Angel R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

45. Derek Tran D vs. Chuong Vo R (Harris 51%)- Leans D

46. Lou Correa D vs. David Pan R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

47. Dave Min D vs. Jenny Rae LeRoux R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

48. Marni von Wilpert D vs. Jim Desmond R (Harris 50%)- Leans D

49. Mike Levin D vs. Armen Kurdian R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

50. Scott Peters D vs. Steve Cohen R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

51. Sara Jacobs D vs. Richard Cabrera R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

52. Juan Vargas D vs. Jeff Belle R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

 

CA current: 43 D, 9 R

CA predicted: 48 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 48 D, 25 R

 

Predicted:

 

54 D (36 Safe, 11 Likely, 6 Leans, 1 Tossup)

19 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 5 Leans, 1 Tossup)

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Colorado

 

1. Melat Kiros D vs Shimon Blau I vs. Christy Peterson R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

2. Joe Neguse D vs. Kelley Dennison R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

3. Dwayne Romero D vs. Jeff Hurd R (Trump 54%)- Leans R

4. Eileen Laubacher D vs. Lauren Boebert R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

5. Jessica Killin D vs. Jeff Crank R (Trump 53%)- Tossup (D)

6. Jason Crow D vs. Jason Clark R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

7. Brittany Petterersen D vs. Tim Bennett R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

8. Manny Rutinel D vs. Gabe Evans R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

CO current: 4 D, 4 R

CO predicted: 6 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 52 D, 29 R 

 

Predicted:

 

60 D (40 Safe, 11 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)

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Connecticut

 

1. Luke Bronin D vs. Amy Chai R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

2. Joe Courtney D vs. George Austin R (Harris 53%)- Safe D

3. Rosa DeLauro D vs. Chris Lancia R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

4. Jim Himes D vs. Michael Goldstein R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

5. Jahana Hayes D vs. Chris Shea R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

CT current:  5 D, 0 R

CT predicted: 5 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 57 D, 29 R

 

Predicted:

 

65 D (44 Safe, 12 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)

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Delaware

 

1. Sarah McBride D vs. Joe Arminio R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

DE current: 1 D, 0 R

DE predicted: 1 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 58 D, 29 R

 

Predicted:

 

66 D (45 Safe, 12 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)