Colorado U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 91 Days Until Election Day

 

Colorado U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

This year, Colorado primary voters went hard left in one party's primaries and hard right in another's. The two nominees for U.S. Senate are not seen as out of the mainstream, but the polarization of the state's politics, mirroring much of what is going on in the nation, tells part of the story of a fairly uncompetitive race. Colorado used to be a true battleground, now despite some pockets of conservatism, it is very reliable statewide for Democrats.

 

Incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper is seeking a second term. He used to be a bigger political deal than he is now. The brewpub entrepreneur went from Mayor of Denver to Governor of Colorado, where he served two terms. After he left office, he sought his party's nomination for President in 2020. Without being considered a candidate on the left  and blocked out by others considered more pragmatic, such as Joe Biden, there was not really any opportunity for Hickenlooper in that race. Ironically enough, neither was there for Michael Bennet, his one time Mayoral Chief of Staff, who also ran for President that year. In 2009, Colorado's then Governor picked Bennet, who had moved on to another post by then, over Hickenlooper to fill an open U.S. Senate seat, which surprised many. Hickenlooper went on to his tenure as Governor and then when his Presidential campaign ended, was recruited to run for the U.S. Senate. He had turned down a previous push to run in Colorado that year but eventually gave in, and managed to defeat an incumbent Republican by nearly 10 points.

 

It seems like Hickenlooper does not go out of his way to get much media coverage nationally, A few years back, the now 72 year old Senator and his second wife welcomed a baby via surrogacy. Initially, many probably doubted that he would run for reelection but he announced he would and few thought he would have too much difficulty. This June, Hickenlooper's Senate colleague, Michael Bennet was upset solidly in a primary for Governor, while Hickenlooper won re-nomination, but not by anywhere near the margin he might have been expected to.

 

The energy among Democrats in Colorado this primary season was on the left and Hickenlooper felt the effect. The incumbent held off State Senator Julie Gonzales by a margin of 53-47. A 43 year old Latina, who was born on an Indian reservation in Arizona, she had been the winner of a state party convention vote while Hickenlooper petitioned his way onto the ballot. A member of the Democratic Socialists of America, Gonzales ran to her opponent's left and tagged herself as an "insurgent progressive." She attacked Hickenlooper for having voted to confirm any of Donald Trump's Cabinet nominees and for refusing to debate her. Clearly, Colorado Democrats were far from satisfied with both of their U.S. Senators, although the value of incumbency was enough to deliver the win to Hickenlooper. Gonzales conceded the primary election, but does not appear to have formally endorsed the Senator.

 

With all these divisions among Colorado Democrats, it might appear that Republicans could have a chance of victory. In theory they should, and if they were running against the socialist Gonzales they might, but the reality is that they do not have a candidate who is going to pose big of a threat. If there is some polling data down the road, I suppose I could move this race to Likely Democrat, but for now, Hickenlooper has a massive financial and organizational advantage over his Republican opponent.

 

State Senator Mark Baisley,who started off the cycle running for Governor, sensed a better opportunity and got into the Senate race instead. With a background as a software engineer, he was first elected to the Colorado House in 2018 and the Colorado Senate in 2022. At the state party gathering, Baisley was the only candidate to receive over 30 percent of the vote and advanced to the primary ballot where he would be uncontested. 

 

Colorado progressives may have voted in strong numbers against Hickenlooper, once considered somewhat of a hero of the left in Denver, but in a general election, they will likely agree to support him against a Donald Trump aligned Republican. Hickenlooper will return to the upper chamber but find himself still the junior Senator to his old employee Michael Bennet

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

2 D (1 Safe, 1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

36 D (34 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe)  

Colorado Governor- Race of the Day

 92 Days Until Election Day

 

Colorado Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Let us see if I can make this one quicker than California.

 

Like that large state on the West Coast, Colorado has a Democrat Governor who is term-limited. Having become a multimillionaire as a very young man, outgoing Governor Jared Polis served in the U.S. House starting in 2009 and is now completing his second term as Governor. He had the distinction of being the openly gay man elected to Congress as a non-incumbent and the first openly gay person to be elected Governor in 2018. For a while Polis was seen as a potential national figure, but in recent years, he has taken some stances and made some remarks that caused many in his party to sour on him. This year, he commuted the sentence of a Tina Peters, a former elected county clerk and MAGA cause celebre who had been convicted of trying to overturn the 2020 election. That pretty much ended any goodwill Colorado Democrats as well as many nationally had for Polis, and his endorsement would likely not be welcome at this point.

 

When U.S. Senator Michael Bennet got into the race for Governor, many other ambitious Democrats decided to stay out. Bennet had been a clear political survivor during his time in office (a quixotic 2020 Presidential bid aside) and he looked like a solid frontunner to be his party's nominee. Elected to a third full term in 2022, Bennet would have the power to name his own successor to the Senate if elected Governor.

 

One candidate who did not stand aside was Phil Weiser, the two term Attorney General of Colorado. He picked up several prominent endorsements himself, as some in the party had never really vibed with Bennet, but was seen as a distinct underdog. As the primary campaign progressed though, Weiser played up the actions he took against the Trump Administration as Attorney General and Bennet seemed to struggle from his association in Washington DC and the frustration that so many Democrats feel about their own Senators. Throughout some political history, some might have voted for a candidate other than Bennet because they wanted to keep him as a Senator, and while that is a job he will continue to hold next year, it seems like the most logical explanation is that Bennet was not seen as progressive enough or as enough of a "fighter." On the heels of left-wing primary voters, Weiser upset the Senator in the June primary by a solid margin of 57-43.

 

Now, it is worth mentioning the historic aspect of what would happen if Weiser wins the Governorship, as seems incredibly likely in a state that has trended more blue over the past generation. In succeeding Polis, he would become the first ever Jewish Governor to succeed another Jewish Governor. (Bennet, who does not formally acknowledge any specific religion has a Jewish mother who survived the Holocaust.) I had wondered just how many of Colorado's leftish voters, who like many across the country have become extremely hostile towards Israel and willing to at least dabble in antisemitism realized that their candidate Weiser is Jewish and considers himself pro-Israel.

 

The Republican part of this equation is really a mess. For one thing, Colorado has a system where candidates either have to receive a level of support at a party State Assembly or petition their way onto the primary ballot. Throughout the campaign season, three candidates withdrew, including one who ran instead and was nominated this year for the U.S. Senate. Four candidates were eliminated at the convention. One of the ones withdrawing from the race was Greg Lopez, who decided to run instead as an Independent. A former Democrat and small town Mayor with a messy past personal life, Lopez had lost the last two Republican Gubernatorial primaries in Colorado before winning a 2024 special election to Congress. He did not seek a full term that year but served about six months on Capitol Hill. It is unclear exactly why Lopez left the Republican Party, but his presence on the ballot can only hurt them at this point, and a whole bunch of traditional Republicans may wind up casting a protest vote for him and his runningmate political activist Taralyn Romero. Several other independent or third party tickets will also be on the ballot, and it looks like they all will be more likely to take more votes from the Republican than from Weiser.

 

In this race, Republicans definitely have a Marxist problem. The party that seems to plan to message this year that all Democrats are Marxists has nominated a man named Victor Marx, a pastor and first time candidate. He took 39 percent in the primary, winning by half a percentage point against State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer, the establishment favorite. She had lost a couple of races for Congress, including a narrow general election defeat in 2022, but was seen as the one Republican who might be competitive in a general election and have crossover appeal. Finishing in third with 21 percent of the vote was Scott Bottoms, a conservative State Representative.

 

Even before the primary vote, both Kirkmeyer and Bottoms made it clear they could not support Marx in a general election. Marx, whose father's name was apparently actually Karl, had a very complicated childhood to say the least. He has claimed that he was abused by his stepfather and at the age of 3 started doing horrific things to cats. Then, he said at age 7, his stepfather made him kill a man in Mississippi. A lot of people think Marx is actually lying about that but are more concerned that he claims he is not certain how many people he may have actually killed and has not denied having killed anyone as an adult. A Marine veteran, Marx became a born again Christian and pastor who was associated with some very hard right positions. Additionally, he claims his brother in law tried to shoot him in 2023, but that person was apparently not charged. The brother in law in currently locked up though for suspicion of murdering a girlfriend. Marx appears more open to discussing his experience in conducting exorcisms. (Can he do anything about Trump?)

 

In his primary, Marx was endorsed by Colorado Congresswomen Lauren Boebert, controversial MAGA figure and former General Michael Flynn and aging rock star Ted Nugent. The candidate's positions on guns and cultural issues and being a thoroughly political outsider was enough to get nearly 40 percent of the vote of a state's primary electorate which has become more solidly MAGA. Donald Trump did not endorse a candidate in this race. Considering how extremely close the final primary result was, an endorsement of Kirkmeyer or even Bottoms could have made the difference, at least for the primary.

 

Since the primary, the candidates have selected Lt. Governor running-mates. Weiser went with one of his early backers, Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper. Marx did not find anyone named Engels to run with him. I thought it was possible he would select the newly freed Tina Peters to join him on the ticket but he instead he picked George Markert, an ideologically similar fellow Marine veteran, who was eliminated at the 2026 Republican Assembly when he ran for U.S. Senate.

 

In theory, an open Gubernatorial race in Colorado should be competitive There are some U.S. House races this year that will be tightly contested and the Republicans are probably not relishing running o a ticket with Marx. I genuinely feel for him if he was abused as a child but as an adult, Victor Marx seems beyond weird and creepy and nobody who has any business as Governor of anything. Even if Colorado were not a light blue state, voters most anywhere would probably agree. I think this one probably ends in a landslide for Weiser.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

4 D, (1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

10 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely) 

 

California Governor- Race of the Day

 93 Days Until Election Day

California Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

The election for Governor of the nation's most populous state feels like a foregone conclusion at this point for the most part, but it was quite a complicated series of events to reach this somewhat anticlimactic point. California is an extremely blue state but that does not mean that a whole lot of people within it do not want change from the status quo. That is leaving me at this point to classify the race as Likely Democrat but I will not be surprised if post Labor Day polling will have me change it to Safe D. Regardless, races for the U.S. House, in recently redrawn districts and even the all Democrat runoff for Los Angeles Mayor are likely to get more headlines the rest of this cycle that a result that is likely to see California elect its first Latino Governor.

 

For starters, incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited after two terms (and successfully winning a recall election too) and cannot run again. Over the past year plus, he has relished his role as a target and fierce critic of Donald Trump. This is clearly in line with someone who plans to run for his party's Presidential nomination. Newsom is definitely headed in that direction and has the sort of name recognition that places him near the top of many national polls for Democrats.Whether he will actually succeed or flop as a national candidate is a topic for next year that I will likely discuss then. For now, while Newsom brags of many successes leading California, there have been many issues that have hurt his profile in the state, at least since the Covid pandemic including the state's resources, destructive fires, and the state of the economy. It also appear that the federal Justice Department is trying to move legally against one of Trump's political enemies and may be targeting Newsom's wife in the process. For someone running as a Democrat for President, Newsom might not might all this.

 

The race for Governor this year has been a whole lot about who decided not to run. Many who did not probably wish they had at this point as they may have become the Democrat who advanced to the November election. These people include former Vice President Kamala Harris, who seems to have put more focus on another run for President, and current U.S. Senator Alex Padilla. The state's Attorney General did not run for Governor and neither did a recent interim U.S. Senator. Also not running was Rick Caruso, a moderate Democrat and wealthy businessman who lost a competitive race for Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022. He did not run for Governor or Mayor this year even though he might have found this a better year for political success.

 

Eleni Kounalakis, the current Lt. Governor, a job Newsom had prior to his election, did jump in to the contest, but not getting anywhere decided to run for State Treasurer instead. Had she stayed in the race for Governor, it is possible she could have been a contender near the end. Two Asian-American statewide elected females were at one point in the mix. Treasurer Fiona Ma got in and out of the race early and is instead the likely next Lt. Governor. Former Controller Betty Yee got into the race and got out late when her campaign was stuck in neutral and party leaders were calling for some of the many Democrats to exit the field. Another statewide elected official, Tony Thurmond, the Education Commissioner and the only major party main black candidate in the race stayed in and could not even quite touch 1 percent one June 2 in the all candidate jungle primary. It is sort of hard for me to believe that these candidates, who had won statewide office before, just could not even compete in a Gubernatorial race,

 

For a while, it looked like Democrats had a frontrunner in Eric Swalwell, a Congressman from the Bay Area, who made a name for himself as a frequent critic of Trump in Washington,. He would go on to receive many endorsements but also had rumors swirling around him. As the primary approached, he was accused of sexual harassment and assault by a series of women who were Democrats. He denied doing anything illegal, while admitting to making mistakes in his marriage, but his supporters started dropping their support, and he quickly had to exit the race at that point, as well as resigning his seat in Congress. Swalwell may ultimately face criminal charges.

 

A major topic of discussion in this race was what would happen if so many Democrats on the ballot split the vote to such an extent where the only two Republicans of note in the race managed to finish first and second locking the Democrats out for November. This would have been a catastrophe for the party as Republicans salivated about it being their only possible way of winning the Governorship. Some other Democrats did heed the call to drop out, but once Swalwell, it appeared to be fairly certain that at least one Democrat, and maybe even two would finish at the top. It is worth nothing that none of these Democrats were really running on a platform to continue the legacy of Gavin Newsom. They all seemed to have serious criticisms of him and the outgoing Governor apparently feels the same way. That sort of lack of support within his own party in his own state is not exactly a great political situation for a Presidential candidate to have.

 

After Swalwell was out, it looked like Katie Porter, a combative Congresswoman, who had failed to make a U.S. Senate general election in 2024 could become the top Democrat. She was the last remaining major female candidate in the race, but her campaign fizzled. For months, she faced questions about her temperament, a nasty divorce, and how she treated her staff, especially after a video surfaced of her cursing out an employee for "getting in her shot" during a taped television piece.

Finishing behind Porter in sixth place overall in June was Matt Mahan, a technology entrepreneur and the Mayor of San Jose, who positioned himself as a fairly pragmatic Democrat. That sort of thing ultimately was not selling this year, at least in California. Antonio Villaraigosa, also tried to move slightly to the right on some cultural issues, but the 73 year old former Mayor of Los Angeles, who was making his second bid for Governor, went nowhere also. He finished in seventh place with one percent of the vote. One fun fact is that exactly 25 years earlier, Villaraigosa advanced to a runoff in his first campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles (and would eventually lose that year) where the last place candidate and his fellow Latino then Congressman Xavier Becerra, finished way back in last place. The roles would definitely be reversed statewide when the two competed a quarter of a century later.

 

The homestetch saw the battle for Democrats coming down to Becerra, who after many years in Congress left to become California's Attorney General, won an election to that office in his own right, and then was picked by Joe Biden to be Secretary of Health and Human Services. There was also Tom Steyer, a liberal billionaire, who had sought the Presidential nomination in 2024 and in this race for Governor poured money into television ads. While both candidates were quite liberal, Steyer was definitely even further tot the left. (I would have voted for Mahan I suppose.) The battle between these two men became pretty nasty as Steyer was accused of trying to buy the election, plus his status as a billionaire which is not exactly a popular thing to be among today's progressives. Becerra, who came from a working class background as the son of parents who grew up in Mexico, was accused of having past ethical problems and of being ineffective in public office. It was claimed that he was basically bypassed by the Biden Administration as HHS Secretary, in regards to the handling of the Covid pandemic, with responsibilities he might have been expected to have going to others. It is true that several prominent Biden alumni seemed agnostic to downright opposed to Becerra being his party's best candidate for Governor. 

 

Of course Republicans have to be mentioned also in this race. While a slew of Independent, third party candidates, and little known Democrats and Republicans were on the June ballot, only two more candidates were important to watch. For a time, it looked like the Republican establishment would be lining up behind Chad Bianco, the mustachioed Sheriff of Riverside County. Then Steve Hilton got into the race, hoping to follow in the footsteps of another European immigrant with an accent and first time candidate who got elected Governor as a Republican. Hilton came from England where he became a top political aide to David Cameron, a one-time Conservative Party Prime Minister of Great Britain. Hilton moved to California in 2012 and became a U.S. citizen in 2021. He renounced his British citizenship last year.

 

In the states, Hilton became a contributor to Fox News, where the bald pundit would frequently appear wearing black t-shirts (perhaps a la Simon Cowell.) Nowadays, Hilton has a beard and wears ties more frequently. I do not quite understand how Hilton became so popular in conservative circles to the extent where he had so many people in California supporting him for Governor, but that is what happened. He then received the endorsement of Donald Trump, which would clearly also mean a major blow to Bianco, and with it, any chance of two Republicans both getting enough votes to sneak into the general election. Many joined me in thinking that the Trump endorsement of Hilton was quite politically dumb for that reason, but I quickly assessed my thinking and realized that the White House probably assumed that such a particular event was not going to happen anyway and if nothing else, propping up Hilton meant that at least one Republican would be around in November. Bianco and Hilton continued to do battle though, sometimes with both appearing on debate stages alongside the several major Democrats, and that made for interesting television. Both stuck pretty close to the MAGA talking points, which was needed to win California Republican primary voters, but definitely not helpful in a general election. Both expressed a hardline position on immigrants, which is of course ironic since Hilton is himself a recent immigrant.

 

When it came time for the voting in early June there were many questions about who would advance and who might play spoiler. It also takes California a good deal of time to count its votes, although this year, the result may have come somewhat earlier than expected. Ultimately, Becerra finished first with 28 percent and Hilton held off Steyer for the second slot 25-23. Bianco finished with 10 percent and nobody else even received five percent. Before the runoff spot was clinched for Hilton, many Republicans feared he would be shut out of it and Donald Trump said that California officials were trying to steal a victory from him, just as they did for the goofball he endorsed for Mayor of Los Angeles who days after the vote fell from second place to third. (Spencer Pratt would have finished second probably if Trump did not endorse him.) Hilton not being screwed out of a November place on the ballot might to some logical people suggest the election was fair but Trump has persisted that Hilton was only allowed to advance to throw people off the scent of other crimes, such as the LA Mayor's race. Craziness all around. Hilton has not joined this particular kind of conspiracy theory in regards to Los Angeles, which of course is more Democrat than the state of California is as a whole.

There is a lot to speculate though about if it might even be worth it for Hilton to still be in this race. While it is true that his presence might bring out some voters who would otherwise stay home and and that could help with down-ballot contests, months of a Steyer vs. Becerra general election, with an uncertain outcome, could have been bad news for Democrats. They would have been attacking each other on a daily basis with all sorts of money from around California and the country being invested into what would essentially be a primary, rather than going to other Democrats in other races. In this hypothetical, I think that whatever amount of Republicans who bothered to vote would have given the win to Becerra over Steyer. For months, his candidacy seemed be going nowhere, but when Swalwell imploded, and the other Democrats were not able to take advantage, Becerra was in the right position as the least objectionable alternative to many. Not exactly the stuff of political inspiration there, but a W is a W.

 

The general election is set though between an American born son of a Mexican immigrant and a British immigrant. That speaks well towards what America is about, but that does not mean these are two good candidates or that either of them will make a good Governor. California is simply not going to go far enough to the right to elect a Republican anytime soon but Hilton is good at delivering a message and many agree with him that change from the Newsom years would be welcome in regards to the economy and crime and many other things. Becerra and the Democrats will say that the real problem is Donald Trump and his allies and that is probably going to wind up as the more salient message.

 

Hilton will get at least 38 percent of the vote but probably not more than 42 percent. That makes all of this seem pretty non-dramatic. For better or worse, for his political party and for California itself, Xavier Becerra, at 68 years old, and after decades in politics, is poised to become the Golden State Governor, at least for one term. 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

3 D, (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

9 D (6 holdover, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely) 

Arkansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 94 Days Until Election Day

Arkansas U.S. Senate

 Status:Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

There are a lot more Senate races this year that will get more attention than what will happen in heavily Republican Arkansas.

 

In 2014, Tom Cotton, a Harvard law school grad and war veteran, and who was at the time a U.S. House freshman easily defeated a veteran incumbent U.S. Senator, helping to signify the dramatic shift toward the GOP in his state. Democrats did not even oppose Cotton in 2020 and now, still under age 50, he is seeking a third Senate term.

 

Cotton is someone who is worth watching in terms of future Senate Leadership. Currently, he is third in the Republican Senate hierarchy.and Chairs the Intelligence Committee. For a time, many talked about Cotton as a potential Presidential candidate, but he did not run when he had the chance and now appears to be somewhat blocked off in the Republican Party by others. Donald Trump has overlooked him in regards to the Vice Presidency or a Cabinet position  The Senator, while widely respected for his brain, is far from the most naturally charismatic politicians out there.A national security hawk, Cotton has at times been willing to take stances on a variety of issues that differ from his colleagues or populist sentiment. Nonetheless, Cotton has spent the Trump years very much in alignment and seems more than willing to engage in harsh partisan rhetoric.

 

In early March, Cotton took 82 percent in a Republican primary against two opponents. I am not certain, but perhaps some primary voters in Arkansas thought he was not MAGA enough. On the Democrat side, the primary was taken by Hallie Shoffne, a sixth generation farmer, in her late 30s, who took 78 year percent against an African-American opponent, who is a small town Mayor.

 

Shoffner appears to be a credible candidate who has raised a fairly decent amount of money in this bid and is said to be adept at social media. She has been attacking Cotton for voting against the Farm Bill. In another state, she might have a short-term political future. The bottom line though is that Arkansas, even amid any possible national wave, is unlikely to vote for any Democrat. 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

1 D (1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

35 D (34 holdover, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe) 

 

Arkansas Governor- Race of the Day

 95 Days Until Election Day

 

Arkansas Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

Arkansas was once solidly dominated southern state by Democrats. Even as much of the rest of the South started shifting red, the Natural State held on a lot of blue, especially at the state level. So much changed though since Bill Clinton has let the White House and since Barack Obama arrived. It is now completely dominated by Republicans and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

 

Four years ago, Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders won the Governorship with 63 percent of the vote. She became the state's first female Governor and the youngest one in the nation. Now, soon to be 44 she is running for a second term and many believe she may have national aspirations. Sanders is raising her family in the Govenror's Mansion that she lived in for years as a child and teenager. Her father Mike Huckabee served years as Governor and even her mother once ran for statewide office. The senior Huckabee is now the U.S. Ambassador to Israel. Growing up in politics, Sarah became active at a young age and was involved in her father's two Presidential campaigns. Eventually, she signed up with Donald Trump and received much national notice for her stint as White House Press Secretary. She left that post to run for Governor of her home state, with Trump's support.and prevailed in 2022, despite having a pretty weak resume, beyond being a political operative for others.

 

Shortly before she was elected Governor, Sanders was diagnosed with thyroid cancer but has since recovered. It is also worth nothing that she has lost a decent amount of weight since becoming Governor, which may help her politically. Her father one famously lost a huge amount of weight as Governor, although he did gain some back. 

 

During her time as Governor, Sanders has worked with a Republican dominated legislature to push a staunchly conservative agenda, focusing on a lot of hot button cultural issues that are popular with online MAGA types. In her first year, she faced some controversy over a state purchased lectern that was very expensive. After some outcry, the Arkansas Republican Party agreed to foot the bill. In 2024, Sanders claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris, by then the party's Presidential nominee, was at a disadvantage because she did not have biological children to keep her "humble", as Sanders herself does. My question was which one of the biological children that Donald Trump fathered has kept him humble. What a ridiculous, pandering, political hackish statement by the Governor.

 

In spite of all this, Sanders appears to be a solid favorite to win reelection, although anything resembling a national wave for Democrats could have ripples in all sorts of places. Like four years ago, Sanders will face an African-American male Democrat. There are just not a whole lot of white Democrats left in Arkansas. In an early March primary, State Senator Fred Love took 81 percent against weak opposition.

 

Love is a credible candidate and is making the case that Arkansas is near the bottom of many national categories and should be doing a lot better. A lot of people likely agree with him, but in Arkansas, it does not appear, at least yet, that nearly enough of them are willing to vote for any Democrat at a level that might make this race more worth watching as we head into fall.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

2 D, (1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

8 D (6 holdover, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely) 

Arizona Governor- Race of the Day

 96 Days Until Election Day

Arizona Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Before we head to the Grand Canyon State, I must take a moment to recognize something. This blog began 20 years ago today. I pretty much started it on a whim. I may have been bored at work at the time. Back then, all sorts of people had Blogger accounts. Today, almost nobody does. Nonetheless, this has been an outlet for me all these years to talk (mostly to myself) about all sorts of things and as long as the Blogger platform exists, (which I doubt will be forever), there is a whole lot of my thoughts to be found. I just wish I could say that I felt the same away about politics as I did 20 years ago, Back then, I was as stalwart a Republican that could be found, and now I am a former Republican. Nonetheless, I am still not a Democrat, even as I find myself rooting for them to win (most) races only because I am so upset with today's Republicans. In any event, the political state of our nation has not been to my satisfaction ever since the Democrats had a big 2006 midterm years. The only relative joy I found since then was really when Donald Trump lost in 2020. However, America persists, with its best days hopefully ahead, and so do I....

 

Arizona used to be a very Republican state, home of Barry Goldwater, John McCain, and others well-known in the party. Today, the party is mostly dominated by conspiracy theorists and election deniers, which is why Democrats have won almost all major statewide races in the Trump era, at least when he himself was not on the ballot. This year, with so many former Republicans (like myself) voting for Democrats (which is perhaps harder for me bother to do in Illinois), a Democrat seems poised to win another term as Governor.

 

Four years ago, then Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, defeated Kari Lake, a one-time Democrat and prominent television news personality turned MAGA Trump ally by just about 17 thousand voters statewide. This was a big win for Democrats, but frankly, many were surprised Lake came as close as she did. In that election cycle, she had become an ultra-polarizing figure and I was generally wondering at the time if she was a performance artist or if she actually believed the things said. Hobbs ran a fairly cautious campaign and refused to debate Lake. It was for those reasons I was wavering at the time if Lake might actually win in what should have been a bad midterm year for Democrats. She lost though and has never conceded the election, following the lead of Donald Trump and claiming it was stolen from her. She persisted with that even into a 2024 U.S. Senate race which she lost by over three points.

 

Now, Hobbs is seeking reelection and did not face a challenge for re-nomination. While she has had some battles with a Republican legislature, her job performance numbers have been modestly high. She is not seek as the kind of politician who might have her eyes on the White House though, unlike Arizona's two Democrat U.S. Senators. 

 

Republicans looked ahead to 2026 thinking that a stronger candidate might be able to take out Hobbs. Initially, there was much attention on Karrin Taylor Robson, a businesswoman and former member of the State Board of Regents. She had lost a competitive primary to Lake for Governor in 2022. This time, she went out of her way to appeal to Donald Trump and she received a jolt of good luck when he endorsed her for Governor in late 2024. However, the endorsement did not wind up being "full and total.": A staunch Trump ally, Congressman Andy Biggs entered the race weeks later and in April of last year, Trump endorsed hm too. For a while, both candidates claimed, accurately, to have the Trump endorsement, but it appeared MAGA preferred Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, who was one of the most prominent voices in declaring that Trump was the rightful winner in 2020. By February, Robson decided that another primary campaign was not worth it and dropped out of the race, leaving Biggs as the sole Trump endorsed candidate, and one who was not considered to have the potential general election appeal that Robson might have had.

 

Biggs did not have the Republican field to himself though. Three other candidates ran, including Biggs' U.S. House colleague David Schweikert. A conservative, but somewhat iconoclastic Congressman, Schweikert had entered the House six years before Biggs, He had recently survived some tough reelection battles amid changing district lines and questions about his finances and ethics. In 2012, Schweikert had won a House primary running in the same district as his colleague Ben Quayle, but he posed no real threat to Biggs in the contest this year for Governor. Biggs, a member of the LDS Church and onetime State Senate President, had once won $10 million before entering politics in ther American Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes won the July sweepstakes for a Gubernatorial nomination 74-14 over Schweikert.

 

It must be noted that this is the first election where Arizona will also have a Lt. Governor elected.The position currently does not exist and now both nominees must select somebody. As of now, both choices are pending. I think they will probably both pick someone of the opposite gender. Biggs selecting Karrin Taylor Robson may make sense, but it is unknown if she would even want the job. Hobbs has been said to have been trying to reach out to someone associated with the old McCain wing of the Republican Party, including perhaps the late Senator's son Jimmy, a military veteran who now sits on the state's Board of Regents. Jimmy McCain has been said to be interested in a political future and he and his mother Cindy are openly supporting the reelection of Hobbs. Apparently though, he has turned down a chance to run for Lt. Governor in Arizona as a Democrat.

 

Something else that may or may not a factor is that the person who won the leftist Green Party nomination for Governor is actually a MAGA supporter. Republicans will hope this somehow works to their benefit against the Democrat.

 

Arizona is a state where a competitive general election is a given.Trump won the battleground state by over points over Kamala Harris in 2024  Biggs does not generate heat perhaps the way Kari Lake did, but he is still a pretty hard-right candidate. He has though tried to learn from the recent failures of other Arizona Republican candidates by speaking of past political alliances with John McCain and trying to appeal to those who still like him. Kari Lake once all but told McCain Republicans to "get the hell out."

 

Polls have shown the incumbent Hobbs with a lead over Biggs, but with many undecided voters. This time around, she will have to debate her opponent. Neither one of them probably come across on television. The bottom line is that most voters do not seem angry enough at Hobbs to want to fire her. On the other hand, there is a lot of anti-Trump motivation in this mid-term election and once again, Arizona Republicans have nominated a slew of candidates, including Andy Biggs, who are not putting any distance between themselves and an unpopular President. The economy and immigration issues helped Trump stage a comeback there two years ago, but the same issues, including potential backlash among Latino Trump voters regarding the levels and tactics of mass deportation may hurt Republicans this time. 

 

For now, this race Leans towards Hobbs and the Democrats. Before all is said and done, it may even more into Likely territory. 

 

  

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

2 D, (1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

8 D (6 holdover, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely) 

Alaska U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 97 Days Until Election Day

 

Alaska U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

Republicans have long held the edge in Alaska in regards to races for Senate and House but the margins have gotten closer in recent cycles and on a couple of occasions, Democrats have won. They are certainly looking for that sort of outcome this year in both the statewide Senate and House race and believe the combination of a strong candidate, a favorable cycle, a multi-candidate general election ballot, and perhaps some political chicanery may help them flip a crucial Senate seat.

 

On August 18, a total of 16 candidates will appear on the statewide primary ballot for U.S. Senate. The top four finishers, regardless of party, will advance to November, where the winner will be elected via ranked choice voting, where it will be necessary to receive at least 50 percent of the vote. Of these 16 candidates, most are not serious contenders. The person who finishes in fourth place in August is likely to be virtually unknown. It is far clearer who he top three will be.

 

One of the candidates will be incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. A mainstream member of the party with ties to the Bush Administration, he defeated a freshman Democrat in 2014, despite not having lived most of his life in Alaska. Sullivan won reelection in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote against an Independent, who was supported that year by Democrats. Like so many others on Capitol Hill, Sullivan has for years now felt the need to walk a line in regards to support for Donald Trump, even if he not exactly seen as a MAGA true-believer. Nonetheless, he has been a mostly reliable vote for the Trump agenda.

 

The top Democrat in this race is Mary Peltola. A Native American, who was part of the state's fishing business and who had served in the state legislature and local office, she made national political headlines when she won a U.S. House seat in an August 2022 special election. The seat had become vacant after the decades long Republican incumbent died in office and with Republicans divided via ranked choice voting, Peltola defeated Sarah Palin, the state's former Governor and one time Republican Vice Presidential nominee. The two candidates had a long-time friendly relationship. In November, Peltola defeated Palin again.. A relatively moderate Democrat, Peltola had her work cut out for her in advance of 2024 with the divisive Palin now out of the picture. Indeed, with other candidates withdrawing in favor of Republican Nick Begich, she lost her seat by just over two points.

 

With 2026 looking to be a better overall year in Alaska for Democrats, Peltola was believed to consider seeking a House rematch, a race for Governor, or in what was considered the toughest potential fight, a race against Sullivan for the Senate. The DGA and DCCC might have been a bit disappointed, but Peltota swung big and announced a candidacy for the Senate.

 
Polls have showed a close race between the two candidates. Much of the conversation over the past few months though has centered on another Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee who announced he would be running as a Republican for this seat and eventually revealed a website with similar colors and logo to that being used by Senator Sullivan. Ironically enough, there seem to be a bunch of Republican Dan Sullivans in Alaska. Back when the Senator was first elected in 2014, a different man named Dan Sullivan was the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor. He was better known than the Senate candidate at first.

 

Perhaps understandably so, the Senator and his allies cried foul, suggesting that the other Dan Sullivan was a plant on behalf of the Democrats to try to dilute the vote of the incumbent. Peltola and her associates have denied all of this. Such tactics have definitely been used before in places such as Chicago. The Republican Lt. Governor of Alaska ruled that the second Sullivan was not a legitimate candidate and could not appear on the ballot, but that was overruled by the Alaska Supreme Court. So indeed, on August 18, there will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, and with whatever confusion that might cause, it will be surprising if both do not advance to November.

 

There seems to be some mixed information though as to whether the other Dan Sullivan will not appear on the ballot as a Republican but as someone not affiliated with a party. It also looks like the incumbent, might be listed as such on the ballot, as well as going by Dan S.Sullivan. It appeared the other Dan Sullivan wanted to use an S in his name too but is actually Dan J. Sullivan, There should be enough discerning information to allow intelligent voters to tell the two men apart, but there is fear on behalf of Republicans that some may not and that in November, Peltota could capitalize in the first round of voting.There is also of course questions as to how ranked choice voting might be affected by the Sullivan shenanigans. Alaska is a state that once elected via write in vote, someone with the name Murkowski, so I think we should give the voters there some credit.

 

Even without any minimal impact of the other Dan Sullivan (and it is true that even a small amount of votes could title the outcome), this looks like a very competitive race between the incumbent Senator and the one-time Congresswoman. Peltoa is a popular, folksy figure and received sympathy after her husband died in a plane crash in 2023. (So many people associated with Alaska politics have died in plane crashes.) Sullivan is seen as a hard working Senator but even in a red state like Alaska, turmoil in the economy related to issues such as tariffs and all the other chaos of the second Trump Administration might make conditions more favorable for a Democrat. It will be interesting to see which campaign can use national issues to their advantage. Neither major candidate is seen as out of the mainstream but will be painted by their opponent as being too close to the fringes in either party. Another factor might involve all the recent talk and demands from MAGA for the Senate to "cancel" its recess until the SAVE Act can be approved (despite a clear lack of votes.) If that happens, Sullivan will be stuck in Washington and will be unable to campaign in Alaska, an advantage Peltola, who does not currently hold office enjoys.

It is indeed fairly rare for someone to lose a U.S. House race and then quickly be elected to the Senate, so that is what Peltota will have to pull off. A difference though is that both are statewide contests in Alaska. Both Sullivan and Peltola will be well-funded. Typically, a Democrat Senate candidate in Alaska does not have much money at all. The polls have continued to look very close.

 

All things considered, this is definitely a race that could go either way in November, and it may be a few days after Election Day before we know for sure, and the control of the Senate itself may come down to Alaska. My hunch is that Republicans are poised to have a very rough midterm election and while they may prevail over weak candidates or those considered too far to the left, they may have a harder time pinning that label on Mary Peltola.  

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

1 D (1 Tossup), 1 R (1 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

35 D (34 holdover, 1 Tossup) 32 R (31 holdover, 1 Safe) 

Alaska Governor- Race of the Day

 98 Days Until Election Day

 

Alaska Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

In all the years I have been doing this feature, this particular entry feels the most perplexing to me. There seems to be so much worth touching on but being far away from Alaska, I really do not have too much insight into what might actually happen. Most of the national attention will be on the state's two federal races, but the contest for Governor is of course a big deal in Alaska. The entire picture might be clearer in the days after August 18 when we will know the "final four" candidates that will be voted on in November. In the meantime, the primary, in this case what I will call a "tundra primary" will feature 12 Republicans,  three Democrats, and three Independents, all running with their individual Lt. Governor running-mates. That makes a grand total of 36 names on the ballot, hoping to be part of the top four tickets, who will advance to November, regardless of party. Then, there will be ranked choice voting in that contest, which means it will probably take several days before we know who the next Governor of Alaska will be.

 

Let us start with some basics. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. Many want him to run for the U.S. Senate in 2028 against maverick Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. Dunleavy's Lt. Governor Nancy Dalhstrom, who also lost a contest for U.S. House two years ago, announced her candidacy for Governor, but after being unable to compete financially with other Republican candidates dropped out. The two candidates who might have been considered the strongest to run for Governor decided not to. They are Senator Murkowski herself who was said to have given some consideration to trying to get out of Washington and be elected to another post her father once held. There is also former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, a Democrat, who narrowly lost her House seat in a Presidential turnout year in 2024, but remained popular, She had her choice of running for Governor, which may have been the best bet for a political comeback, a House re-match, or a race for the U.S. Senate against a Republican incumbent. She chose the latter, to the delight of Democrats at least in the other states who want to see her party win a majority.

 

Over the past couple of generations, Republicans have typically won most statewide races in Alaska, but Democrats have also won when circumstances were right. Many believe that 2026 will be such a year and that the controversial concept of ranked choice voting will help them. Personally, I have a lot of issues with ranked choice voting, hut as someone who dislikes what is going on with both major parties, I cannot exactly feel bad about them being weakened by such a thing.

 

We will have a far better idea about how November will go in this race, once we know who advances. There will be at least one Democrat and at least one Republican for sure.Could an Independent join them If so, it will be former Governor Bill Walker, running this year with ex-State Revenue Commissioner Randy Hoffbeck. A lifelong Republican, Walker won the Governorship as an Independent in 2014, after joining into a coalition with the state's Democrats and also having the support of former Republican Governor Sarah Palin. When he sought reelection in 2018, Walker struggled and attempted to drop out late in an attempt to stop the Republican Dunleavy and help a Democrat, but that did not work. Neither did a comeback attempt for the office four years ago. At this point, Walker has become a perennial candidate for Governor and at age 75 might have lost any sort of political luster needed to advance to the final four.

 

So the general election will probably have either two Republicans and two Democrats or one Demoocrat and three Republicans. Whom the voters rank second or even third will play a huge role in determining the ultimate winner and there are all sorts of theories about what would be the best situation for whom. There are more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, but it seems like the Republican Party, with far more candidates in the field this cycle is more divided. If the top Republican vote getter is an ideological MAGA type, which seems more likely than not, that leaves a big opening for a somewhat moderate Democrat to win more Independent voters or be ranked second by supporters of a different kind of Republican candidate.

 

Let us now look at the Democrats in this race. The person doing best in the polls is former State Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich. He is running with former USDA state official Julie Hnilcka. Begich is certainly a well known name in Alaska politics. The candidate's father once served as the state's Congressman before dying in a plane crash at age 40. His son, who is Tom's younger brother, won a U.S. Senate seat in 2008 as a Democrat under unusual circumstances He was defeated for a second term and then lost as his party's nominee for Governor in 2018, in the last year before ranked choice voting became a thing. Now, Tom Begich, who is also a musician, is running for Governor and is considered to be someone with a record of having worked successfully with Republicans and who has cross-over appeal. There is also a Republican branch to the family tree. The candidate's nephew Nick Begich was elected narrowly to the U.S. House in 2024 and is now in a battleground campaign for reelection against an Independent, who is being backed by Democrats. It remains to be seen what effect two Begiches on the ballot, from different parties, and confusion that might bring. In Alaska's Senate race this year there are two candidates with the same first and last name and that has gotten much attention.

 

Also running is former State Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins, "JKT:'s running mate is Anchorage Assemblyman  Zach Johnson. Kreiss-Tompkins is a good deal younger than Begich and considered further to the left .Both Democrats have received some major endorsements from party figures. It is considered unlikely that JKT would get more votes than Begich if both are on the November ballot, but Democrats probably hope both can make it, as their respective voters would probably rank them one and two.

 

Right now, the Republican frontrunner seems to be businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, a conservative activist, who amassed a following as a radio host. Her running mate is former State Senator Mike Shower. She is saying that if she is not the top Republican vote getter in August, she will quit the race. Likely, she will call for other Republicans to do the same. While Donald Trump has not issued an endorsement here (at least yet) , Wilson is seen as the most MAGA of the candidates, although a couple other tickets are also pushing for that vote. One of them is the ticket of former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and construction contractor Josh Church. One of the more traditional Republican tickets in the field consists of former Attorney General Treg Taylor and manufacturing executive Candi English. There may not be as much of a lane now for that sort of candidacy that might be thought of as more aligned with the traditional Republican Dunleavy status quo. Another Republican ticket consists of Clark Bishop, a former State Senator, running with Greta Schuerch, a somewhat glamorous regional director of a Native American entity in the state. She is a registered non-partisan (some of the running-mates across the board do not necessarily belong to the same party as their principal) and Bishop is considered a more moderate Republican who has backing from labor unions. If he advances to the top four, some of his support might split for a Democrat instead of Wilson.

 

Once again, I cannot claim to be any sort of expert in Alaska politics, and I only spent a fairly short time researching all this information. It does seem like the moderate Democrat Tom Begich and the MAGA Republican Bernadette Wilson will make it to November, although with so many Republicans running, it is possible that the other Democrat in the field may even finish second in August and advance. Once the final field is set, there will be more to consider and look into in regards to polling as to how ranked choice voting might break down. It does seem though like Wilson, a first-time candidate might have some difficulty coalescing Independents and moderate Republicans as compared to some others in her party and if Begich is considered acceptable to those voters, things could tilt towards him on the second or third ballot.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

1 D, (1 Tossup), 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

7 D (6 holdover, 1 Tossup), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely) 

 

Alabama U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 99 Days Until Election Day

Alabama U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

As has been the case for many years now, Alabama is a conservative, deep red state politically and even an open U.S. Senate race will not generate much news this cycle. Democrats have fielded their strongest possible candidate for Governor and are making somewhat of an effort in some other statewide races, but sending a Democrat to Washington looks pretty impossible. This is in spite of an energized electorate, including a large African-American population wanting to make their votes heard against Donald Trump and recent mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House.

Currently, this seat is held by Republican Tommy Tuberville, a polarizing and less than brilliant former football coach. Instead of seeking a second term in the Senate, where he seemed to never quite fit in, Tuberville is running for and is likely to be elected Governor of Alabama this year. He faces the former Senator he defeated in 2020 in that general election.

 

With Doug Jones as their candidate for Governor, Alabama Democrats were left searching for a lower tier hopeful. Four candidates ran in the May primary and in a state where black voters make up the core of the party, two African-American candidates advanced to a June Senate runoff. In that contest, an older more establishment candidate, Everett Weiss defeated Dakarai Larriett younger candidate who ran more to the left. Despite running a less visible race, it was perhaps no surprise that Weiss, an attorney and frequent candidate with church ties won the runoff 55-45 over Larriett an openly gay candidate and businessman who seemed to be spurned into politics by what he claims was a false arrest in Michigan after a 2024 traffic stop.

 

Most of the action in this race was of course on the Republican side. Many considered jumping into the race including former Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl, trying to follow in the footsteps of former Tigers football coach Tuberville, but he ultimately did not run. Nor did Paul Finebaum, a well-know SEC football media commentator. Current Attorney General Steve Marshall did run, but fell just short of making the June runoff.

Advancing to that contest was Congressman Barry Moore (no relation to Roy Moore, the last Republican to lose an Alabama Senate election) and former Navy SEAL and tactical training company owner Jared Hudson. Both candidates claimed to be the true MAGA conservative in the race, but Donald Trump backed Moore, who is said to have been the first ever elected official in America to endorse Donald Trump for President during his time as a State Representative. Moore went on to be elected to Congress in 2020 and in 2024 prevailed in a competitive Republican primary after having been thrown in the same district as a House Republican colleague by redistricting which has since been rescinded to the benefit of Republicans in Alabama.

 

The younger Hudson ran as a political outsider and in the primary and runoff, he and Moore traded barbs about each other's trustworthiness and ethics. Some prominent Republicans backed Hudson, such as then Oklahoma Senator and now DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin but most of the establishment followed Trump's lead and endorsed Moore, even though he was considered the anti-establishment candidate in his Congressional primaries. In spite of the Trump endorsement, Hudson made this more of a race than some would have expected. He trailed Moore 39-26 in the initial primary and then lost the runoff 56-44. Hudson will likely seek office again sometime and for now the two former opponents have seemed to bury the political hatchet.

 

A founder of a waste hauling company, Moore now seems poised to succeed Tuberville in the Senate. During his time as a state legislator he was indicted on perjury charges but later acquitted. He seems to not exactly be a gregarious backslapping type in the way that many southern politicians were once known for, but in this day and age, being a reliable vote for Trump is seemingly all that matters in a place like Alabama. The Democrat Weiss simply is unlikely to have anything close to the financial resources needed to compete and will struggle to have enough name recognition in November. 

 

Barry Moore will probably not be considered any kind of bipartisan legislator or unifying figure for as long as he serves in the Senate. However, announcing his support for Donald Trump way back in 2015, when most elected Republican officeholders around the country though his candidacy was likely to be short-lived definitely turned into a political win for Moore.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

0 D, 1 R (1 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

34 D (34 holdover) 32 R (31 holdover, 1 Safe) 

 

Alabama Governor- Race of the Day

 100 Days Until Election Day

 

Alabama Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

In this midterm election year, Democrats have high hopes of making substantial gains in all sorts of races. In Alabama, the party has nominated their strongest possible contender and he will face a Republican who is in many regards a weak candidate. However, it likely will not matter a whole lot in these polarized time where some states are just close to unwinnable for one party or the other.

 

Republican Governor Kay Ivey has served for close to ten years total now and has won two terms of her own as the sitting Governor, capping off a long political career. She successfully battled lung cancer while Governor and now, as she is close to turning 82 is term-limited. A noted social conservative, Ivey has seemed to have a relatively low key tenure in her final term.

 

With the Governorship becoming open, many prominent Republicans were said to be interested, but it was also the case that all credible candidates were prepared to defer to Tommy Tuberville, a freshman U.S. Senator who would likely run with the "full and total support" of Donald Trump. Indeed that is what happened, as Tuberville let speculation mount for months as to whether he would run for Governor or seek a second term in the Senate. Said to not be well-liked among Senate colleagues in either party, he launched a campaign for Governor and took 85 percent in the May primary against two little known opponents.

 

The entire political identity of Tuberville as been of "Coach" and he entered politics with the backing of Trump who seems to have quite an affinity for people who were involved in football. A native of Arkansas, Tuberville never played professionally, but had a long career as a college football coach. In the early '90's he was an assistant coach at Miami, where one of his players was Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. Eventually, he came to the Yellowhammer State to become the head coach of the Auburn Tigers and he achieved great success in that post, including against the rival Alabama Crimson Tide. Then, as is often the case in sports, Tuberville's Auburn teams began to lose more and he would up resigning. He had mixed success at a couple other coaching stops and then entered broadcasting and the financial world, where his business associations brought about a lot of controversy including a partner being sent to prison.

 

In 2020, Tuberville was living in Florida, but decided to run for office in the state where he had coached Auburn. With Trump's support, and despite not being involved in campaign debates or going into much issue detail, he finished first in a Republican primary and then easily won a runoff against former Senator Jeff Sessions, a one time Trump ally, who the President soured on during his term as his own Attorney General. Sessions who had been fired as AG, attempted a comeback to the Senate, where he had easily won before, but lost the runoff to the White House backed Tuberville 61-39.

 

At this point, the general election in Alabama was considered a merely formality and in November, Tuberville took 60 percent of the vote against incumbent Democrat Doug Jones returning the seat in deep red Alabama to the Republican Party. 

The circumstance of the seat being held by a Democrat was of course unusual itself. Jones had won a "perfect storm" special election to the Senate in 2017 to take the seat that had recently been held by Sessions. A one time Congressional staffer, who had lost his only bid for office in 1994 when he unsuccessfully ran for his party's nomination for a State House seat, Jones made a name for himself as a U.S. Attorney in Alabama  where he successfully prosecuted Klansmen who who murdered four African-American young girls decades earlier in the 1963 Birmingham church bombing. Back in the private sector, Jones launched a campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2002, but that campaign did not go anywhere and he dropped out.

 

Turmoil engulfed Alabama politics in 2017, and Jones who easily won a Senate primary that year was in the right position to capitalize. The appointed interim Republican U.S. Senator lost a primary runoff to the controversial Roy Moore, a former State Supreme Court Chief Justice  who had twice been removed from office due to judicial misconduct. Considered an ultra-conservative, Moore faced headlines in the Senate campaign about his past involvement with teenage girls. He denied any criminal wrongdoing but the bad press was overwhelming and while Donald Trump stood by Moore, many in the party decided they could not vote for their party's nominee and to the surprise of many, Jones, a white candidate who had strong support among the state's African-American voters, won a U.S. Senate seat 50-48.

 

On Capitol Hill, Jones was considered one of the Senate's more moderate Democrats but everyone knew he would have a tough road to win a full term in 2000. This time, Moore finished a distant fourth in the Republican primary, and the nomination went to Tuberville. Despite questions regarding the Coach's residency and intellect, he did not possess the baggage that Moore had and there was not much Jones could do to hold on to his seat. Many praised him for even bothering him to run at all in 2020 and some thought he would be an ideal pick to become newly elected President Joe Biden's Attorney General, but that went to someone else (in a decision that Biden is said to deeply regret.)

 

On Capitol Hill, Tuberville has been an unapologetic ally of Trump and has often made headlines by his harsh rhetoric towards transgender people and Muslims as well opposition to such things as aid to Ukraine For a while, the Senator held up all military promotions in dealing with an abortion policy issue involving the Pentagon. Even his Pro-Life Republican colleagues were said to be upset by the tactic. In a television interview, Tuberville seemed to defend the concept of white nationalism as benign, while saying he was opposed to racism. It appeared Tuberville did not quite grasp the concept of what white nationalism is and he had by that point, the one-time jock, had developed a reputation of being perhaps the least intelligent member of the Senate.

 

In spite of a slew of bad headlines regarding his time in the private sector and as a Senator, Tuberville seemed likely to win another term in the Senate or a race for Governor in 2026. At first he denied he had made up his mind, but it was clear that he was looking to leave the Senate and return to try to govern a state in which he has actually lived in for a fairly short time in his life. The eligibility standard is tougher in Alabama for Governor than it is for Senate and even after he won the nomination, there was a real question over whether Tuberville had remained a resident of Florida and might be ruled ineligible to run for Governor. Such a ruling would have thrown this year's election into chaos but in what can hardly be considered a surprise, the State Republican Party ruled that their already decided Gubernatorial nominee, and sitting U.S. Senator was eligible to run. While challenges are pending before the State Supreme Court, it is considered that anything might now happen to prevent Tuberville from being on the ballot and in effect being elected Governor.

 

Both nominees for Alabama Governor this year are over 70 and have faced each other before. For years, there was speculation that Jones would run again in 2026 against Tuberville again for either Senate or Governor or that he might seek the new open Senate seat. Jones decided he wanted to run for Governor against Tuberville and in May took 79 percent of the primary vote against several African-American opponents, including the 2022 nominee for Governor. Black voters, as is in the case these days in many southern states, play a dominant role along Alabama Democrats. The white Jones though has retained his popularity with that community and is seen as easily being the most electable possible candidate.

 

This year, there is much anti-Trump sentiment among Democrats in all states and black voters in Alabama are expected to be particularly fired up about recent developments that are expected to eliminate a U.S. House seat won in 2024 by a black Democrat. Like their contest six years ago, Tuberville is not expected to do much in the way of debating Jones or delving into policy matters beyond basic boilerplate MAGA talking points. 

 

All things considered, this should be a race to keep an eye on and personally, I wish it were the case. A "blue tsunami" might make this become competitive at the end, but it would basically take that. Tuberville beat Jones, when he was an incumbent. by 20 points in the Senate election.  I do think this year's open Gubernatorial race might finish a few points closer but until there is any polling data suggesting an actual race, the  political reality is that Alabama is extremely adverse to Democrats, even ones that might be considered quite moderate by the party's own base, and all that Doug Jones can really do here is to gamely take another for his blue team against "Coach" Tuberville, his flaws and all.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far:

 

0 D, 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

 

6 D (6 holdover), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely) 

Holdover U.S. Senators

As is the case every two years, a third of Senate seats are up for election. Here is a roster of the people scheduled to remain in the U.S. Senate next year with the parties they currently belong to, not taking into account any election to Governor, which is probably going to happen in a couple of cases.

 

AL- Katie Britt (R)

 

AK- Lisa Murkowski (R)

 

AZ- Mark Kelly (D)
AZ- Ruben Gallego (D)

 

AR- John Boozman (R)

 

CA- Alex Padilla (D)

CA- Adam Schiff (D)

 

CO- Michael Bennet (D)

 

CT- Richard Blumenthal (D)

CT- Chris Murphy (D)

 

DE- Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

 

FL- Rick Scott (R)

 

GA- Raphael Warnock (D)

 

HI- Brian Schatz (D)

HI- Mazie Hirono (D)

 

ID- Mike Crapo (R)

 

IL- Tammy Duckworth (D)

 

IN- Todd Young (R)

IN- Jim Banks (R)

 

IA- Chuck Grassley (R)

 

KS- Jerry Moran (R)

 

KY- Rand Paul (R)

LA- John Kennedy (R)

 

MA- Angus King (I-D)

 

MD- Chris Van Hollen (D)

MD- Angela Alsobrooks (D)

 

MA- Elizabeth Warren (D)

MI- Elissa Slotkin (D) 

 

MN- Amy Klobuchar (D)

 

MS- Roger Wicker (R)

 

MO- Josh Hawley (R)

MO- Eric Schmidt (R)

MT- Tim Sheehy (R)

 

NE- Deb Fischer (R)

 

NV- Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

NV- Jacky Rosen (D)

 

NH- Maggie Hassan (D)

 

NJ- Andy Kim (D)

 

NM- Martin Heinrich (D)

 

NY- Chuck Schumer (D)

NY- Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

 

NC- Ted Budd (R)

 

ND- John Hoeven (R)

ND- Kevin Cramer (R)

 

OH- Bernie Moreno (R)

 

OK- James Laknford (R)

 

OR- Ron Wyden (D)

 

PA- John Fetterman (D)

PA- Dave McCormick (R)

 

RI- Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

SC- Tim Scott (R)

 

SD- John Thune (R)

 

TN- Marsha Blackburn (R)

 

TX= Ted Cruz (R)

 

UT-  Mike Lee (R)

UT-  John Curtis (R)

VT- Bernie Sanders (I-D)

VT- Peter Welch (D)

 

VA- Tim Kaine (D)

WA- Patty Murray (D)

WA- Maria Cantwell (D)

 

WV- Jim Justice (R)

 

WI- Ron Johnson (R)

WI- Tammy Baldwin (D)

 

WY- John Barrasso (R)

 

Holdover Senators: 34 D, 31 R 

Current Senate: 47 D, 53 R 

Holdover Governors

As we prepare to look at the 2026 statewide elections, here is a list of the relatively small number of Governors who preside over a state that is not holding a Gubernatorial election this year.

 

DE- Matt Meyer (D)

IN-  Mike Braun (R)

KY- Andy Beshear (D)

LA- Jeff Landry (R)

MS- Tate Reeves (R)

MO- Mike Kehoe (R)

MT- Greg Gianforte (R)

NJ-  Mike Sherrill (D)

NC- Josh Stein (D)

ND- Kelly Armstrong (R)

UT-  Spencer Cox (R)

VA-  Abigail Spanberger (D)

WA- Bob Ferguson (D)

WV- Patrick Morrisey (R)

 

Holdover Governors: 6 D, 8 R

All current Governors: 24 D, 26 R 

U.S. House Special Elections

These vacancies will be filled before Election Day in November. I will formally predict all 435 districts in the days before the General Election.

 

California

 

14. vacant upon the resignation of Eric Swalwell D

(won by Harris with 66% of the vote)

Safe D/Leans Wahab

_________________________________________________________________________________ 

Georgia

13. vacant upon the death of David Scott D

(won by  Harris with 71% of the vote)

 

Safe D/Likely Scott 

 

 

America 250 and Beyond

On this 250th anniversary of our nation's independence, I am immensely proud to be an American. 

For starters, I know that America is and always has been "Great." I also know that America does and always will need to be made better. This was the case in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776 and it was the case over 100 years ago when my great-grandparents and two of my grandparents, like so many of our fellow Americans from all points on Earth, came to our shores and became Americans. One of the best things about being an American is our system allows us to recognize flaws and use our freedoms and liberties to improve upon them. For that, we can thank our Constitution,

 

I was not born when our nation celebrated its Bicentennial 50 years ago but I know there was largely a different vibe in the country then. Perhaps, 200 just feels more momentous than 250, but after years of turmoil and a lessening of confidence in our country, America was largely united then to celebrate how far we had come. 

 

While patriotism is very much on display today, we are not as united as we had been or could be or should be. We are not as united in our pride of country as say our neighbor Canada is right now. There are multiple factors for that and none should be overlooked but the most singular one is that 11 years ago, a malevolent man came down a golden escalator and has worked every day since to divide us and place emotions, either positive or negative about him, over our feelings for America itself.

 

It seems hard to believe, but his plan has largely worked. Millions of Americans used their voice and their votes to place him at the helm of leadership on this Semiquincentennial, a word he probably cannot pronounce, let alone spell, and that is part of our story. That is part of our history. We can be and should be bigger than one man or one party or the divisions, many of them healthy, that exist in a free society. With that in mind, I wish more Americans felt the pride and determination about our country that I do, but I can at least understand where so many are coming from. This era is a test and our posterity will come to know whether we passed it or not and how those of us who during this era felt concern and outrage reacted and worked to make America a "more perfect Union."

 

Next year will be America's 251st birthday. By then, despite all sorts of efforts at the top to undermine them, our citizens will have voted coast to coast in federal, state, and local elections, for executive, legislative, and judicial positions. All sorts of individuals will go on to win those elections, some good, some bad, some in between, but America means respecting those results. Those winners will have been  in office for a few months by next July and I hope and believe there will be additional safeguards established to protect our country from any would be despot in the White House. 

 

After that, will come America 252. By this point, we should know whom the two main individuals are, (perhaps there will even be a third or more) running to replace the current Executive, as the law clearly states, and what their visions are for America at home and around the world are. Needless to say, this will be a lively time full of much fighting. In some major ways though, it will not be much different than the battle between Adams and Jefferson. More people will have the right to vote though and should choose wisely. For as much as so many of us dislike the direction and agenda of the party currently in power, many of those in the opposition, seem headed in a dangerous direction also. Some of them seem more than willing to abuse the office in the same ways, either as a matter of revenge or to suit their own ideological means. Many of those who are angriest at the current regime do not want to drive us to normalcy but instead would veer us on a course of ideological extremism and historically failed and dangerous policies. It will be a test for our nation to avoid that fate and by July 4, 2028, much will be clearer.

 

I am optimistic though that America 253 will be a proud and happy day. Some man or woman will be the 48th (or 49th) President, and hopefully doing as decent of a job as possible, but America will be bigger than that person. We can take heart when that President upholds their oath of office but on maters of disagreement, be they big or small, we as Americans must always retain our right to dissent and to speak out and demand the appropriate checks and balances.

 

After all we have been through over 250 years, the history is clear and we should expect America to pass any test.

 

As Lincoln said in our darkest time as a country,  "this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth."