Alaska Governor- Race of the Day

 98 Days Until Election Day

 

Alaska Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

In all the years I have been doing this feature, this particular entry feels the most perplexing to me. There seems to be so much worth touching on but being far away from Alaska, I really do not have too much insight into what might actually happen. Most of the national attention will be on the state's two federal races, but the contest for Governor is of course a big deal in Alaska. The entire picture might be clearer in the days after August 18 when we will know the "final four" candidates that will be voted on in November. In the meantime, the primary, in this case what I will call a "tundra primary" will feature 12 Republicans,  three Democrats, and three Independents, all running with their individual Lt. Governor running-mates. That makes a grand total of 36 names on the ballot, hoping to be part of the top four tickets, who will advance to November, regardless of party. Then, there will be ranked choice voting in that contest, which means it will probably take several days before we know who the next Governor of Alaska will be.

 

Let us start with some basics. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. Many want him to run for the U.S. Senate in 2028 against maverick Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. Dunleavy's Lt. Governor Nancy Dalhstrom, who also lost a contest for U.S. House two years ago, announced her candidacy for Governor, but after being unable to compete financially with other Republican candidates dropped out. The two candidates who might have been considered the strongest to run for Governor decided not to. They are Senator Murkowski herself who was said to have given some consideration to trying to get out of Washington and be elected to another post her father once held. There is also former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, a Democrat, who narrowly lost her House seat in a Presidential turnout year in 2024, but remained popular, She had her choice of running for Governor, which may have been the best bet for a political comeback, a House re-match, or a race for the U.S. Senate against a Republican incumbent. She chose the latter, to the delight of Democrats at least in the other states who want to see her party win a majority.

 

Over the past couple of generations, Republicans have typically won most statewide races in Alaska, but Democrats have also won when circumstances were right. Many believe that 2026 will be such a year and that the controversial concept of ranked choice voting will help them. Personally, I have a lot of issues with ranked choice voting, hut as someone who dislikes what is going on with both major parties, I cannot exactly feel bad about them being weakened by such a thing.

 

We will have a far better idea about how November will go in this race, once we know who advances. There will be at least one Democrat and at least one Republican for sure.Could an Independent join them If so, it will be former Governor Bill Walker, running this year with ex-State Revenue Commissioner Randy Hoffbeck. A lifelong Republican, Walker won the Governorship as an Independent in 2014, after joining into a coalition with the state's Democrats and also having the support of former Republican Governor Sarah Palin. When he sought reelection in 2018, Walker struggled and attempted to drop out late in an attempt to stop the Republican Dunleavy and help a Democrat, but that did not work. Neither did a comeback attempt for the office four years ago. At this point, Walker has become a perennial candidate for Governor and at age 75 might have lost any sort of political luster needed to advance to the final four.

 

So the general election will probably have either two Republicans and two Democrats or one Demoocrat and three Republicans. Whom the voters rank second or even third will play a huge role in determining the ultimate winner and there are all sorts of theories about what would be the best situation for whom. There are more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, but it seems like the Republican Party, with far more candidates in the field this cycle is more divided. If the top Republican vote getter is an ideological MAGA type, which seems more likely than not, that leaves a big opening for a somewhat moderate Democrat to win more Independent voters or be ranked second by supporters of a different kind of Republican candidate.

 

Let us now look at the Democrats in this race. The person doing best in the polls is former State Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich. He is running with former USDA state official Julie Hnilcka. Begich is certainly a well known name in Alaska politics. The candidate's father once served as the state's Congressman before dying in a plane crash at age 40. His son, who is Tom's younger brother, won a U.S. Senate seat in 2008 as a Democrat under unusual circumstances He was defeated for a second term and then lost as his party's nominee for Governor in 2018, in the last year before ranked choice voting became a thing. Now, Tom Begich, who is also a musician, is running for Governor and is considered to be someone with a record of having worked successfully with Republicans and who has cross-over appeal. There is also a Republican branch to the family tree. The candidate's nephew Nick Begich was elected narrowly to the U.S. House in 2024 and is now in a battleground campaign for reelection against an Independent, who is being backed by Democrats. It remains to be seen what effect two Begiches on the ballot, from different parties, and confusion that might bring. In Alaska's Senate race this year there are two candidates with the same first and last name and that has gotten much attention.

 

Also running is former State Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins, "JKT:'s running mate is Anchorage Assemblyman  Zach Johnson. Kreiss-Tompkins is a good deal younger than Begich and considered further to the left .Both Democrats have received some major endorsements from party figures. It is considered unlikely that JKT would get more votes than Begich if both are on the November ballot, but Democrats probably hope both can make it, as their respective voters would probably rank them one and two.

 

Right now, the Republican frontrunner seems to be businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, a conservative activist, who amassed a following as a radio host. Her running mate is former State Senator Mike Shower. She is saying that if she is not the top Republican vote getter in August, she will quit the race. Likely, she will call for other Republicans to do the same. While Donald Trump has not issued an endorsement here (at least yet) , Wilson is seen as the most MAGA of the candidates, although a couple other tickets are also pushing for that vote. One of them is the ticket of former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and construction contractor Josh Church. One of the more traditional Republican tickets in the field consists of former Attorney General Treg Taylor and manufacturing executive Candi English. There may not be as much of a lane now for that sort of candidacy that might be thought of as more aligned with the traditional Republican Dunleavy status quo. Another Republican ticket consists of Clark Bishop, a former State Senator, running with Greta Schuerch, a somewhat glamorous regional director of a Native American entity in the state. She is a registered non-partisan (some of the running-mates across the board do not necessarily belong to the same party as their principal) and Bishop is considered a more moderate Republican who has backing from labor unions. If he advances to the top four, some of his support might split for a Democrat instead of Wilson.

 

Once again, I cannot claim to be any sort of expert in Alaska politics, and I only spent a fairly short time researching all this information. It does seem like the moderate Democrat Tom Begich and the MAGA Republican Bernadette Wilson will make it to November, although with so many Republicans running, it is possible that the other Democrat in the field may even finish second in August and advance. Once the final field is set, there will be more to consider and look into in regards to polling as to how ranked choice voting might break down. It does seem though like Wilson, a first-time candidate might have some difficulty coalescing Independents and moderate Republicans as compared to some others in her party and if Begich is considered acceptable to those voters, things could tilt towards him on the second or third ballot.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

1 D, (1 Tossup), 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

7 D (6 holdover, 1 Tossup), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely) 

 

Alabama U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 99 Days Until Election Day

Alabama U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

As has been the case for many years now, Alabama is a conservative, deep red state politically and even an open U.S. Senate race will not generate much news this cycle. Democrats have fielded their strongest possible candidate for Governor and are making somewhat of an effort in some other statewide races, but sending a Democrat to Washington looks pretty impossible. This is in spite of an energized electorate, including a large African-American population wanting to make their votes heard against Donald Trump and recent mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House.

Currently, this seat is held by Republican Tommy Tuberville, a polarizing and less than brilliant former football coach. Instead of seeking a second term in the Senate, where he seemed to never quite fit in, Tuberville is running for and is likely to be elected Governor of Alabama this year. He faces the former Senator he defeated in 2020 in that general election.

 

With Doug Jones as their candidate for Governor, Alabama Democrats were left searching for a lower tier hopeful. Four candidates ran in the May primary and in a state where black voters make up the core of the party, two African-American candidates advanced to a June Senate runoff. In that contest, an older more establishment candidate, Everett Weiss defeated Dakarai Larriett younger candidate who ran more to the left. Despite running a less visible race, it was perhaps no surprise that Weiss, an attorney and frequent candidate with church ties won the runoff 55-45 over Larriett an openly gay candidate and businessman who seemed to be spurned into politics by what he claims was a false arrest in Michigan after a 2024 traffic stop.

 

Most of the action in this race was of course on the Republican side. Many considered jumping into the race including former Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl, trying to follow in the footsteps of former Tigers football coach Tuberville, but he ultimately did not run. Nor did Paul Finebaum, a well-know SEC football media commentator. Current Attorney General Steve Marshall did run, but fell just short of making the June runoff.

Advancing to that contest was Congressman Barry Moore (no relation to Roy Moore, the last Republican to lose an Alabama Senate election) and former Navy SEAL and tactical training company owner Jared Hudson. Both candidates claimed to be the true MAGA conservative in the race, but Donald Trump backed Moore, who is said to have been the first ever elected official in America to endorse Donald Trump for President during his time as a State Representative. Moore went on to be elected to Congress in 2020 and in 2024 prevailed in a competitive Republican primary after having been thrown in the same district as a House Republican colleague by redistricting which has since been rescinded to the benefit of Republicans in Alabama.

 

The younger Hudson ran as a political outsider and in the primary and runoff, he and Moore traded barbs about each other's trustworthiness and ethics. Some prominent Republicans backed Hudson, such as then Oklahoma Senator and now DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin but most of the establishment followed Trump's lead and endorsed Moore, even though he was considered the anti-establishment candidate in his Congressional primaries. In spite of the Trump endorsement, Hudson made this more of a race than some would have expected. He trailed Moore 39-26 in the initial primary and then lost the runoff 56-44. Hudson will likely seek office again sometime and for now the two former opponents have seemed to bury the political hatchet.

 

A founder of a waste hauling company, Moore now seems poised to succeed Tuberville in the Senate. During his time as a state legislator he was indicted on perjury charges but later acquitted. He seems to not exactly be a gregarious backslapping type in the way that many southern politicians were once known for, but in this day and age, being a reliable vote for Trump is seemingly all that matters in a place like Alabama. The Democrat Weiss simply is unlikely to have anything close to the financial resources needed to compete and will struggle to have enough name recognition in November. 

 

Barry Moore will probably not be considered any kind of bipartisan legislator or unifying figure for as long as he serves in the Senate. However, announcing his support for Donald Trump way back in 2015, when most elected Republican officeholders around the country though his candidacy was likely to be short-lived definitely turned into a political win for Moore.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

0 D, 1 R (1 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

34 D (34 holdover) 32 R (31 holdover, 1 Safe) 

 

Alabama Governor- Race of the Day

 100 Days Until Election Day

 

Alabama Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

In this midterm election year, Democrats have high hopes of making substantial gains in all sorts of races. In Alabama, the party has nominated their strongest possible contender and he will face a Republican who is in many regards a weak candidate. However, it likely will not matter a whole lot in these polarized time where some states are just close to unwinnable for one party or the other.

 

Republican Governor Kay Ivey has served for close to ten years total now and has won two terms of her own as the sitting Governor, capping off a long political career. She successfully battled lung cancer while Governor and now, as she is close to turning 82 is term-limited. A noted social conservative, Ivey has seemed to have a relatively low key tenure in her final term.

 

With the Governorship becoming open, many prominent Republicans were said to be interested, but it was also the case that all credible candidates were prepared to defer to Tommy Tuberville, a freshman U.S. Senator who would likely run with the "full and total support" of Donald Trump. Indeed that is what happened, as Tuberville let speculation mount for months as to whether he would run for Governor or seek a second term in the Senate. Said to not be well-liked among Senate colleagues in either party, he launched a campaign for Governor and took 85 percent in the May primary against two little known opponents.

 

The entire political identity of Tuberville as been of "Coach" and he entered politics with the backing of Trump who seems to have quite an affinity for people who were involved in football. A native of Arkansas, Tuberville never played professionally, but had a long career as a college football coach. In the early '90's he was an assistant coach at Miami, where one of his players was Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. Eventually, he came to the Yellowhammer State to become the head coach of the Auburn Tigers and he achieved great success in that post, including against the rival Alabama Crimson Tide. Then, as is often the case in sports, Tuberville's Auburn teams began to lose more and he would up resigning. He had mixed success at a couple other coaching stops and then entered broadcasting and the financial world, where his business associations brought about a lot of controversy including a partner being sent to prison.

 

In 2020, Tuberville was living in Florida, but decided to run for office in the state where he had coached Auburn. With Trump's support, and despite not being involved in campaign debates or going into much issue detail, he finished first in a Republican primary and then easily won a runoff against former Senator Jeff Sessions, a one time Trump ally, who the President soured on during his term as his own Attorney General. Sessions who had been fired as AG, attempted a comeback to the Senate, where he had easily won before, but lost the runoff to the White House backed Tuberville 61-39.

 

At this point, the general election in Alabama was considered a merely formality and in November, Tuberville took 60 percent of the vote against incumbent Democrat Doug Jones returning the seat in deep red Alabama to the Republican Party. 

The circumstance of the seat being held by a Democrat was of course unusual itself. Jones had won a "perfect storm" special election to the Senate in 2017 to take the seat that had recently been held by Sessions. A one time Congressional staffer, who had lost his only bid for office in 1994 when he unsuccessfully ran for his party's nomination for a State House seat, Jones made a name for himself as a U.S. Attorney in Alabama  where he successfully prosecuted Klansmen who who murdered four African-American young girls decades earlier in the 1963 Birmingham church bombing. Back in the private sector, Jones launched a campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2002, but that campaign did not go anywhere and he dropped out.

 

Turmoil engulfed Alabama politics in 2017, and Jones who easily won a Senate primary that year was in the right position to capitalize. The appointed interim Republican U.S. Senator lost a primary runoff to the controversial Roy Moore, a former State Supreme Court Chief Justice  who had twice been removed from office due to judicial misconduct. Considered an ultra-conservative, Moore faced headlines in the Senate campaign about his past involvement with teenage girls. He denied any criminal wrongdoing but the bad press was overwhelming and while Donald Trump stood by Moore, many in the party decided they could not vote for their party's nominee and to the surprise of many, Jones, a white candidate who had strong support among the state's African-American voters, won a U.S. Senate seat 50-48.

 

On Capitol Hill, Jones was considered one of the Senate's more moderate Democrats but everyone knew he would have a tough road to win a full term in 2000. This time, Moore finished a distant fourth in the Republican primary, and the nomination went to Tuberville. Despite questions regarding the Coach's residency and intellect, he did not possess the baggage that Moore had and there was not much Jones could do to hold on to his seat. Many praised him for even bothering him to run at all in 2020 and some thought he would be an ideal pick to become newly elected President Joe Biden's Attorney General, but that went to someone else (in a decision that Biden is said to deeply regret.)

 

On Capitol Hill, Tuberville has been an unapologetic ally of Trump and has often made headlines by his harsh rhetoric towards transgender people and Muslims as well opposition to such things as aid to Ukraine For a while, the Senator held up all military promotions in dealing with an abortion policy issue involving the Pentagon. Even his Pro-Life Republican colleagues were said to be upset by the tactic. In a television interview, Tuberville seemed to defend the concept of white nationalism as benign, while saying he was opposed to racism. It appeared Tuberville did not quite grasp the concept of what white nationalism is and he had by that point, the one-time jock, had developed a reputation of being perhaps the least intelligent member of the Senate.

 

In spite of a slew of bad headlines regarding his time in the private sector and as a Senator, Tuberville seemed likely to win another term in the Senate or a race for Governor in 2026. At first he denied he had made up his mind, but it was clear that he was looking to leave the Senate and return to try to govern a state in which he has actually lived in for a fairly short time in his life. The eligibility standard is tougher in Alabama for Governor than it is for Senate and even after he won the nomination, there was a real question over whether Tuberville had remained a resident of Florida and might be ruled ineligible to run for Governor. Such a ruling would have thrown this year's election into chaos but in what can hardly be considered a surprise, the State Republican Party ruled that their already decided Gubernatorial nominee, and sitting U.S. Senator was eligible to run. While challenges are pending before the State Supreme Court, it is considered that anything might now happen to prevent Tuberville from being on the ballot and in effect being elected Governor.

 

Both nominees for Alabama Governor this year are over 70 and have faced each other before. For years, there was speculation that Jones would run again in 2026 against Tuberville again for either Senate or Governor or that he might seek the new open Senate seat. Jones decided he wanted to run for Governor against Tuberville and in May took 79 percent of the primary vote against several African-American opponents, including the 2022 nominee for Governor. Black voters, as is in the case these days in many southern states, play a dominant role along Alabama Democrats. The white Jones though has retained his popularity with that community and is seen as easily being the most electable possible candidate.

 

This year, there is much anti-Trump sentiment among Democrats in all states and black voters in Alabama are expected to be particularly fired up about recent developments that are expected to eliminate a U.S. House seat won in 2024 by a black Democrat. Like their contest six years ago, Tuberville is not expected to do much in the way of debating Jones or delving into policy matters beyond basic boilerplate MAGA talking points. 

 

All things considered, this should be a race to keep an eye on and personally, I wish it were the case. A "blue tsunami" might make this become competitive at the end, but it would basically take that. Tuberville beat Jones, when he was an incumbent. by 20 points in the Senate election.  I do think this year's open Gubernatorial race might finish a few points closer but until there is any polling data suggesting an actual race, the  political reality is that Alabama is extremely adverse to Democrats, even ones that might be considered quite moderate by the party's own base, and all that Doug Jones can really do here is to gamely take another for his blue team against "Coach" Tuberville, his flaws and all.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far:

 

0 D, 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

 

6 D (6 holdover), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely) 

Holdover U.S. Senators

As is the case every two years, a third of Senate seats are up for election. Here is a roster of the people scheduled to remain in the U.S. Senate next year with the parties they currently belong to, not taking into account any election to Governor, which is probably going to happen in a couple of cases.

 

AL- Katie Britt (R)

 

AK- Lisa Murkowski (R)

 

AZ- Mark Kelly (D)
AZ- Ruben Gallego (D)

 

AR- John Boozman (R)

 

CA- Alex Padilla (D)

CA- Adam Schiff (D)

 

CO- Michael Bennet (D)

 

CT- Richard Blumenthal (D)

CT- Chris Murphy (D)

 

DE- Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

 

FL- Rick Scott (R)

 

GA- Raphael Warnock (D)

 

HI- Brian Schatz (D)

HI- Mazie Hirono (D)

 

ID- Mike Crapo (R)

 

IL- Tammy Duckworth (D)

 

IN- Todd Young (R)

IN- Jim Banks (R)

 

IA- Chuck Grassley (R)

 

KS- Jerry Moran (R)

 

KY- Rand Paul (R)

LA- John Kennedy (R)

 

MA- Angus King (I-D)

 

MD- Chris Van Hollen (D)

MD- Angela Alsobrooks (D)

 

MA- Elizabeth Warren (D)

MI- Elissa Slotkin (D) 

 

MN- Amy Klobuchar (D)

 

MS- Roger Wicker (R)

 

MO- Josh Hawley (R)

MO- Eric Schmidt (R)

MT- Tim Sheehy (R)

 

NE- Deb Fischer (R)

 

NV- Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

NV- Jacky Rosen (D)

 

NH- Maggie Hassan (D)

 

NJ- Andy Kim (D)

 

NM- Martin Heinrich (D)

 

NY- Chuck Schumer (D)

NY- Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

 

NC- Ted Budd (R)

 

ND- John Hoeven (R)

ND- Kevin Cramer (R)

 

OH- Bernie Moreno (R)

 

OK- James Laknford (R)

 

OR- Ron Wyden (D)

 

PA- John Fetterman (D)

PA- Dave McCormick (R)

 

RI- Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

SC- Tim Scott (R)

 

SD- John Thune (R)

 

TN- Marsha Blackburn (R)

 

TX= Ted Cruz (R)

 

UT-  Mike Lee (R)

UT-  John Curtis (R)

VT- Bernie Sanders (I-D)

VT- Peter Welch (D)

 

VA- Tim Kaine (D)

WA- Patty Murray (D)

WA- Maria Cantwell (D)

 

WV- Jim Justice (R)

 

WI- Ron Johnson (R)

WI- Tammy Baldwin (D)

 

WY- John Barrasso (R)

 

Holdover Senators: 34 D, 31 R 

Current Senate: 47 D, 53 R 

Holdover Governors

As we prepare to look at the 2026 statewide elections, here is a list of the relatively small number of Governors who preside over a state that is not holding a Gubernatorial election this year.

 

DE- Matt Meyer (D)

IN-  Mike Braun (R)

KY- Andy Beshear (D)

LA- Jeff Landry (R)

MS- Tate Reeves (R)

MO- Mike Kehoe (R)

MT- Greg Gianforte (R)

NJ-  Mike Sherrill (D)

NC- Josh Stein (D)

ND- Kelly Armstrong (R)

UT-  Spencer Cox (R)

VA-  Abigail Spanberger (D)

WA- Bob Ferguson (D)

WV- Patrick Morrisey (R)

 

Holdover Governors: 6 D, 8 R

All current Governors: 24 D, 26 R 

U.S. House Special Elections

These vacancies will be filled before Election Day in November. I will formally predict all 435 districts in the days before the General Election.

 

California

 

14. vacant upon the resignation of Eric Swalwell D

(won by Harris with 66% of the vote)

Safe D/Leans Wahab

_________________________________________________________________________________ 

Georgia

13. vacant upon the death of David Scott D

(won by  Harris with 71% of the vote)

 

Safe D/Likely Scott 

 

 

America 250 and Beyond

On this 250th anniversary of our nation's independence, I am immensely proud to be an American. 

For starters, I know that America is and always has been "Great." I also know that America does and always will need to be made better. This was the case in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776 and it was the case over 100 years ago when my great-grandparents and two of my grandparents, like so many of our fellow Americans from all points on Earth, came to our shores and became Americans. One of the best things about being an American is our system allows us to recognize flaws and use our freedoms and liberties to improve upon them. For that, we can thank our Constitution,

 

I was not born when our nation celebrated its Bicentennial 50 years ago but I know there was largely a different vibe in the country then. Perhaps, 200 just feels more momentous than 250, but after years of turmoil and a lessening of confidence in our country, America was largely united then to celebrate how far we had come. 

 

While patriotism is very much on display today, we are not as united as we had been or could be or should be. We are not as united in our pride of country as say our neighbor Canada is right now. There are multiple factors for that and none should be overlooked but the most singular one is that 11 years ago, a malevolent man came down a golden escalator and has worked every day since to divide us and place emotions, either positive or negative about him, over our feelings for America itself.

 

It seems hard to believe, but his plan has largely worked. Millions of Americans used their voice and their votes to place him at the helm of leadership on this Semiquincentennial, a word he probably cannot pronounce, let alone spell, and that is part of our story. That is part of our history. We can be and should be bigger than one man or one party or the divisions, many of them healthy, that exist in a free society. With that in mind, I wish more Americans felt the pride and determination about our country that I do, but I can at least understand where so many are coming from. This era is a test and our posterity will come to know whether we passed it or not and how those of us who during this era felt concern and outrage reacted and worked to make America a "more perfect Union."

 

Next year will be America's 251st birthday. By then, despite all sorts of efforts at the top to undermine them, our citizens will have voted coast to coast in federal, state, and local elections, for executive, legislative, and judicial positions. All sorts of individuals will go on to win those elections, some good, some bad, some in between, but America means respecting those results. Those winners will have been  in office for a few months by next July and I hope and believe there will be additional safeguards established to protect our country from any would be despot in the White House. 

 

After that, will come America 252. By this point, we should know whom the two main individuals are, (perhaps there will even be a third or more) running to replace the current Executive, as the law clearly states, and what their visions are for America at home and around the world are. Needless to say, this will be a lively time full of much fighting. In some major ways though, it will not be much different than the battle between Adams and Jefferson. More people will have the right to vote though and should choose wisely. For as much as so many of us dislike the direction and agenda of the party currently in power, many of those in the opposition, seem headed in a dangerous direction also. Some of them seem more than willing to abuse the office in the same ways, either as a matter of revenge or to suit their own ideological means. Many of those who are angriest at the current regime do not want to drive us to normalcy but instead would veer us on a course of ideological extremism and historically failed and dangerous policies. It will be a test for our nation to avoid that fate and by July 4, 2028, much will be clearer.

 

I am optimistic though that America 253 will be a proud and happy day. Some man or woman will be the 48th (or 49th) President, and hopefully doing as decent of a job as possible, but America will be bigger than that person. We can take heart when that President upholds their oath of office but on maters of disagreement, be they big or small, we as Americans must always retain our right to dissent and to speak out and demand the appropriate checks and balances.

 

After all we have been through over 250 years, the history is clear and we should expect America to pass any test.

 

As Lincoln said in our darkest time as a country,  "this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth."

Coming Attractions

The 2, 667th post in the nearly 20 year history of this blog will be a reminder that I will, as always,plan to offer analysis and predictions on every Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate election, once we reach the 100 day mark until Election Day. Before that, there will be some more U.S. House special elections to formally predict.

Until then, look for my political rantings, venting, and insights, on Twitter/X. 

U.S. House Special Election

There are currently a lot of U.S. House vacancies. Before I begin looking all Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races later this summer, I have to "predict" every House race.

This Tuesday, voters in California go to the polls and via their "jungle primaries" will nominate House candidates in newly drawn districts. In one district though, voters will choose a replacement under the current, very different, district lines. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, this will go to a runoff, but in theory, there could be a winner on Tuesday. More U.S. House special elections, including in California, are still to come. I will post my predictions on those later on.

 

California

1 vacant upon the death of Doug LaMalfa R

(won by Trump with 61% of the vote)

 

Likely R/ Likely Gallagher

 

American Idol- Season 24 Finale

Time flies these days. It seems like the latest season of American Idol just began, but it is not already over. In the old days, when the show was a much bigger event, the Finale would always be the week before Memorial Day Weekend. They just start the actual competition later these days and eliminate multiple people at once. The days of the farewell video package and teary sing-off and interview with Seacrest are long gone. 

 

As usual, I enjoyed following this season of American Idol, but find writing about it to be a chore. Mostly because, I have not been able to "live blog" it but have to rely on memory. This past week, I watched the three hour episode as it unfolded and did my rankings and predictions at the time, but certainly did not have time to write down my thoughts online. So, I have waited until Saturday, where I fear there is just not all that much to say. Every week, I likely forget to include points I wanted to make.

 

One thought I did had was how it was interesting that the Finals began with so many more males than females, thus making it seem likely that the winner would be a guy, For the Final Three though, females finally outnumbered the males though. I also think this is probably the first time that at least two members of the Final Three were parents.

 

1. "The Champion"

 

The evening formally began with all three of the contestants singing a song by judge Carrie Underwood. Since they all had brief solos, I had to rank them, though nobody else will bother. I really do not remember much about this. They all sounded just fine and perhaps based on personal preference at this point, I judged it as I would have expected.

 

3. Hannah Harper

2. Keyla Richardson

1. Jordan McCullough

 

Next,  it was time for "global superstar" and former coach on "The Voice" Alicia Keys to mentor the kids and have them sing her songs. Keys hereself would also sing twice on the evening, as there were of course the usual guest performances of duets and group numbers with the previously eliminated Finalists.

 

2. Hannah Harper- "No One"

 

This is one of the two Alicia Keys songs I have always really liked, but for whatever reason get mixed up in my head with the other one, where I cannot place what the other one is. We will have to see if that one gets done this round also.

 

Hannah did a fine job. She dedicated this to her husband, (whom has a different last name) and who I have since read quit his job in order to stay home and take care of the kids, while his wife pursues her long-standing musical dreams that apparently she had set aside when she started having kids. All that is very admirable, but a large sector of the conservative Idol fanbase might have some mixed feelings. Hannah definitely needs those sort of voters to win. I was a bit surprised that the three boys, who are usually sitting in the audience with large headphones on were back home in Missouri and not in the Hollywood studio alongside the overalls wearing grandpa. Hannah's mother was also there along with a woman I assume was her grandmother. So, it would have been cool if four generations of her family were there for the moment. 

 

Anyways, Hannah was good. She can successfully adapt her voice to suit all sorts of songs but never ventures too far from what she specializes in. That is very reminiscent of what past winner Scotty McCreery was able to pull off. 

 

3. Keyla Richardson- "Un-thinkable" (I'm Ready)"

 

This is a song I do not know. Thus, it makes it all harder to remember days later. I know that Keyla did her thing though and more than pulled it off. She took Alice Keys' advice and incorporated some sort of call and response into the performance. 

That's about all I got for this one. Keyla's son Drew was definitely present for the Finale. I expect he believes he will be a contestant himself in a few years when he is old enough, or perhaps will just take over for Seacrest as host.

 

4. Jordan McCullough-"If I Ain't Got You"

 

Yes, this is the other song by Alicia Keys that I like (Face it, "Fallin' is boring), and probably even more than the other one. I have to find a way to remember that "If I Ain't Got You"  and "No One" are different songs.

 

Jordan did what he always does and went all in on the performance and his vocals were superb. I do not think you can say that he had one performance on the Idol stage that would even be considered merely "above average." He is just an incredibly talented singer, that will probably never again be as famous as he has been for the past couple of months. That is sort of a sad thing.

 

So for this round, as I would have expected:

 

3. Hannah Harper

2. Keyla Richardson

1. Jordan McCullough

 

One more round before a "snapshot of the vote" would be released and the person in third place would be eliminated. Now, I do not think it was explained, and I think it is pretty important, if the vote starts fresh after that for only the Top Two or if all the votes from the first two official rounds carry over to the end. That sort of thing definitely might affect the outcome. Politically speaking, is it more of a jungle primary or a runoff?

As is tradition, the Finale participants got a "hometown visit" although it seems the video packages are much shorter than they used to be. 

 

5. Hannah Harper- "Married Into This Town"

 

So, the performance order will remain the same. Jordan will apparently keep having the final performance.

 

This was a song that Hannah had written herself  and I thought it was pretty impressive in that regard. While she has said she grew up in Missouri (when not traveling with her Bluegrass performing family) it seems like she was not a native of Willow Springs, and moved there because of her husband.

 

Playing guitar for this performance, Hannah is always at her strongest at this kind of country music. The genre definitely has a lot of fans, but it is also true that the genre has a ton of young blonde women who sing it.

 

6. Keyla Richardson- "I Love The Lord"

 

Returning to Pensacola, Florida or as it is now being called "Pensakeyla" (as a young child, I always though it was "Pepsicola"), Keyla was shown meeting with some of her former students, at what looked like a private school, and of course,  spending a lot of time with her son back home. You can definitely say that all three of the Finalists are from very Republican parts of America, although Keyla is probably the last likely to vote that way.

 

Taking on a gospel song is a definite tactic to play for the religious Christian vote . The first night of the Finals featured a whole lot of these songs, but then the competition did feel less secular in the weeks that followed.  

 

As would be expected, Keyla sang it very well. It was probably technically perfect as far as those things go. It seems like she would be sticking solely with ballads though for the Finale. I wonder if she would have gotten more votes if she did something by Beyonce for instance.

 

7. Jordan McCullough-"Dear God"

 
Another religious ballad here as Jordan is trying to appeal to the same voters as Keyla, even though many of them are probably sticking solidly with Hannah anyway. We know that Jordan is a worship leader, so this sort of music must feel like second nature to him. I did notice though from the video package that the church in Murfreesboro, Tennessee that the biracial Jordan works out seems to be a racially mixed but perhaps mostly white megachurch type place. I wonder if some African-American churchgoing fans of his might have taken notice and were perhaps disappointed.

 

To continue a theme, Jordan sang this just as expected. He was great. There is no way he could actually not win the title, right?

 

Round Two Rankings, same as before:

 

3. Hannah Harper

2. Keyla Richardson

1. Jordan McCullough

 

Next, and I do not really even remember this that well from Monday, the Final Three sang "Lovin' U" alongside its artist Alicia Keys. They all did just fine. We have an extremely talented Final Three. Nobody else will have ranked them, but of course I did, and had it:

 

3. Hannah Harper

2. Keyla Richardson

1. Jordan McCullough

 

Who should have finished in third place: Hannah Harper

Who I predicted would finish in third place: Keyla Richardson

Who finished in third place: Keyla Richardson

 

All of this is course what I expected to happen a week prior, if not before.Keyla and Jordan were splitting the votes of black Idol fans. There had never been a Final Two composed of two African-Americans. Also, it has been a very long time since the Final Two were both women, and those rare occasions only seemed to happen on seasons where the all the guys were considered complete afterthoughts. So, in many ways, this result was completely expected and as good as Keyla was on the night and has been all season, there is nothing she could have done about it. She had all sorts of buzz coming out of the Hawai'i episodes and many people were probably surprised that Jordan would go on to be as great in the competition as he was, and overtake her. Somehow though, I think a lot of casual Idol viewers were likely surprised here.

 

The next hour of the show was devoted to celebrity appearance and other filler. Did we really need to have Luke Bryan sing one of his horrible bro country tunes again so soon?  I did like seeing Carrie Underwood with Motley Crue doing "Home Sweet Home" and "Kickstart My Heart", (a pretty cool goal song choice for the barely still alive Buffalo Sabres.) Vince Neil is nowhere remotely close to the vocalist he once was but at least he made an effort to sing every word he was assigned.

 

Some of the other performances, including eliminated contestants, were pretty bad,and let's just leave it at that.  Since Keyla was gone, there is no reason to comment upon her duet with Jason Mraz, but she did just fine.

 

As for Hannah and Jordan, what remained was their celebrity collaboration and then a reprisal of a performance from earlier in the season. That means, I think perhaps for the first time ever, no round of "Winners Song" or what their first single is. I have no idea if these contestants even have such an entry out there in the post-Idol musical world at this point now.

 

8. Hannah Harper- "I Hope You Dance"

 

Just about everyone watching Idol knows this song, for better or worse, and Hannah dueted with its singer Lee Ann Womack (not to be confused with Jo Dee Messina who "surprised" Hannah at her hometown visit.)

 

This was made for television goodness. Hannah did her thing and meshed nicely with the more seasoned country star. The Idol Finalist may not be blowing anyone away with her vocal range, but she was certainly having a strong and steady night.

 

9. Jordan McCullough- "Control" and "Confetti"

 

This pairing made a little less sense. Tori Kelly is a big star (though I do not think I would be able to name one song) but part of that lore is that she as a teenager was cut on Idol in Hollywood Week and never even made the Top 24. On another note, I learned that the Canadian dude who did backflips on stage and got cut fairly early a couple years ago is now some sort of star and performed a cringy duet on Monday with Brooks. 

 

Jordan sounded just fine of course on what apparently a medley of two Tori Kelly songs. He was also joined though by the talented Daniel Stallworth, who was cut a few weeks ago, and who made it a musical trio. Everything involved here worked just fine, but it did not really leave much of a chance for Jordan to shine.

 

I have to be consistent and rank this "round" though, even though nobody else would. I also have to keep it real. To my surprise, I had it Hannah over Jordan.

 

At this point, knowing they only had one song left, I was really hoping I could give a clear win to Jordan because I had wanted him to win. I was also very curious if Hannah's votes from the beginning of the night, when she was perhaps a good deal ahead of a split Jordan/Keyla vote was carrying over. I had been counting on Keyla voters, perhaps upset at the outrage of her losing to Hannah, would then switch over en masse to Jordan, but perhaps that was not in play as much as I first assumed.

 

10. Hannah Harper- "String Cheese"

 

I do occasionally enjoy some string cheese, although I think I was at least a teenager the first time I ever had any. I like the Colby Jack types you can bite off a bit at a time without the strings even more.

 

This was the second original song Hannah performed. Perhaps voters were giving her credit for leaning into her songwriting talents and originality. Hannah had auditioned in Nashville with this song and it went "viral" as apparently all sorts of young mothers had an emotional reaction. (Carrie Underwood also cried and gushed about how "relatable" it was.) Frankly, I got that sentiment more hearing the song in full than I did previously. Hannah sang about feeling insecure in her life, as someone in her 20s, about the overwhelming responsibility of being a mother, but how she knew she was fulfilling her destiny and purpose by being a parent by something so mundane as helping her son open his string cheese. (Yes, those packages can be a bitch!)

 

Hannah sang it really well and I get how women with young children can have an emotional reaction. In Idol history, that sort of thing for a female contestant appealing to women in such a way, may be unheard of, and thus extremely smart. As mentioned, I also totally relate in how it feels, even at my age, to need help sometimes in getting the plastic of those freakin' cheese things. Sometimes, I have to get a scissors.

 

11. Jordan McCullough- "Goodness Of God"

 

Throughout the entire season, as great as he has been, Jordan has done mostly ballads and has leaned into the spiritually aspect. He clearly sees himself doing religious music for his career. This was another trip to the well for the Finale in order to try to appeal to the Evangelical group. It was even the second song to have the word G-d in the title.

 

Jordan sounded great when he sang this on the Idol stage weeks ago and he sang it great again on Monday. I would have rather have heard him do something new or perhaps another repeat performance but you cannot in anyway diminish his talent as a vocalist. If you take degree of difficulty into account, this was definitely harder to sing than "String Cheese."

 

Final Round: Jordan over Hannah

 

Who should have won American Idol: Jordan McCullough

Who I was predicting would win American Idol: Jordan McCullough

 

I will say though being the political savant I was, the doubts of my prediction were definitely creeping in. This was not going to be any sort of slam dunk.

 

Who won American Idol: Hannah Harper

 

There you have it. It is not exactly easy to analyze but I think women this season related to Hannah, who is quite pretty, but mostly due to her maternal identity more than Jordan, whom they might have liked personally, but were perhaps not overly attracted to.

This season, Idol held all its auditions and "Hollywood Week" in the State of Tennessee, but Jordan fell short of being the first ever Idol winner to represent that musical mecca. Hannah would join David Cook to become the second Idol winner from Missouri (although he had been living elsewhere by the time he auditioned.) 

Last year, I was pleasantly surprised when the more talented African-American singer prevailed over the white country dude. This year, the racial roles at least were reversed. I will note though that both Jamal Roberts and Hannah Harper are parents of young children (three to be exact in both cases) and that might have contributed to the voting habits of some. It seemed subtly obvious last year that Jamal was not married while Hannah, who got married quite young, had her husband present each week. She definitely appeared to the more traditional minded viewers while Jordan had some distinct differences from what might be considered an ideal black male gospel singer for those who wanted to back such a contender. Whether it was intentional or not, you have to admit that Hannah had a good strategy as a female to win a show where females used to really struggle to win.

 

It is hard to tell if Jordan was surprised or not by the final result.He was very gracious, but then was seen in a long huge with Daniel Stallworth in the wings while Hannah attempted to sing "At The Cross (Love Ran Wed)" in her winning women, as if Jordan was maybe crying. Soon enough though, other contestants, judges, and family members surrounded Hannah on stage. I did not see Keyla out there though. Maybe I missed her, but I did try to look, and that seemed notable. The emotional impact of the Idol "winning moment" is not as intense as it used to be. Perhaps, because the seasons are truncated.

 

Jordan will likely have a decent career in music if he wants one in Gospel, and hopefully Keyla will taste success post-Idol as well. 

Time will tell if the latest winner, Hannah,will go on to mainstream country success, or if he will be on the Bluegrass circuit before too long. Hopefully, she will get that tour bus she has been dreaming of, in order to keep her family together on the road, similar to how she and her siblings grew up. She also ought to try to get an endorsement from a string cheese company.

 

American Idol- Top 3

It feels like more of a chore to blog about this season of American Idol, but we are almost at the end. It is not that I do not find the season or show interesting, it is just that Monday night is a bad time slot for me to write about the episode that night. So, I have to do it later, and things get delayed. There seems to be so many other things to follow between news/politics and sports. For instance, the Chicago Cubs are on what feels like an historic hot streak lately and I need to enjoy that for as long as it lasts. 

 

This week, I watched a recording of American Idol late Monday night and am here now on Thursday evening to offer some disjointed observations. This may not have ever happened before with as many as five singers competing, but I actually had the exact same rankings this week for both rounds. Thus, I will just present them at the end.

 

To start off the evening, original Idol judge Paula Abdul was welcomed back to the judges' table, and her fellow original judge Randy Jackson was presented giving mentorship and advice to the remaining hopefuls. I am certain a lot of viewers were concerned about the physical appearance of "The Dog" which seems to have changed even since his recent stint as sidekick on the ridiculously corny Fox show "Name That Tune", (which I think I would do very well on.) Hopefully, Randy is doing ok.

 

There were also appearances by some of the professionals from ABC's "Dancing With The Stars" which my parents (dancers themselves) have watched religiously.since the first season. Thankfully, there was not a crossover "Bachelor/Bachelorette" tie-in for Idol. Perhaps next season, they can bring out John Quinones who will incorporate "What Would You Do" into the Idol competition.

 

1. Keyla Richardson- "River Deep, Mountain High"

 

Let us see how well I can remember everything that happened on Monday. My first thought was this was the song that produced the surprise boot for Pia Toscano once upon a time on Idol. 

 

For some reason, I think Keyla has on a few occasions began her performances sounding a little bit off kilter vocally. Then, she gets it together and very frequently shows off in a majorly impressive way at the end. I was not crazy about the way this song started Then, when the dancers came out and the tempo picked up, she was certainly more than credible and entertaining as usual.

 

2. Chris Tungseth- "Northern Attitude" 

 

Chris is from Minnesota after all  This was not a song I knew but he has continued to survive this season, perhaps due to votes from the South.

 

From what I recall, I thought Chris sounded a little bit better and more connected to the music than he has recently. It must have still been a bit boring though if I cannot recall much more. I think I remember that he seemed a little distracted by the dancers around him. Who knows how much time they had to rehearse with that production>

 

3. Braden Rumfelt- "Lose Control"

 

I do not think they mentioned what the criteria was for the song selections for this round. Braden took on a relatively new and well-known song by Teddy Swims.  With Randy Jackson, a former bassist for Journey, as the mentor, perhaps Braden could have done something by Journey. I do think his voice has a bit of a Steve Perry like quality to it, but he has not really leaned into that.

 

This was overall really good in my view. Like the week before, he seems to have gained confidence on stage and I think he has a very impressive voice,

 

4. Hannah Harper- "Fever"

Seacrest teased this performance by saying Hannah had a fever and I thought that meant she was under the weather and they were trying to gin up some sympathy for her. Instead, it was an announcement of a truly surprising song choice for the Evangelical bluegrass artist.

One on hand, I have to salute Hannah for trying to do something a bit different in order to show range. On the other hand, I wondered if her voting fanbase would be confused or disapprove of a sultry Peggy Lee jazz standard. Vocally, I thought Hannah just barely managed to pull it off. She seemed to go for it with her voice and has the skill to mold the song to her particular tone, but body language wise, the vibe was that she just was not entirely comfortable.

 

5. Jordan McCullough- "Footprints In The Sand"

 

I think this song was done several years ago on Idol but I do not know it well.  

 

That is probably a benefit for Jordan though, because upon watching, one just associates it with him, and this dude can just sing anything,. I really barely remember him in the auditions, I did not think she was going to amount to being a major contender this season, but he is just so good at what he does, that he seems to have reached "other league" status. As I have made the comparison before, he reminds me of someone from NBC's "The Voice." He is probably not going to be any sort of pop star in the years ahead, but as far as a reality tv show singing contestant, he is putting on a clinic and could be days away from the title.

 

The next round was really interesting. The Final Five would sing duets with some of the Finalists from a generation ago. No, not Chris Daughtry or Katharine McPhee from the 2006 season (and Rest In Peace, Mandisa) but a bunch of the others from what was a very popular season, back when Idol was far more of a cultural phenomenon in America.  I took my parents to see that season's "Pop Tarts Tour" in Rosemont, Illinois for their wedding Anniversary that year, and it was a very good show. I even ranked the performances on this blog. 

 

All of the returning alumni have definitely aged, and some better than others. None of them are exactly big names in music at this point,and most of them for the most part never really were (unlike Daughtry for a period of time.) It was good to see them back though. These past contestants, who range in age between 37 and 49, really brought their A games to the stage. That might have come from years of experience and seasoning or perhaps the realization that this may be the last chance they ever get to sing on network television.

 

Last year's winner, Jamal Roberts also came back to sing his new song and hand out some flowers. That meant there would be four Idols in the building, representing 2005 with judge Carrie Underwood, 2006 with Taylor Hicks, last year's winner, and the person about to be crowned next Monday. 

 

As a matter of personal privilege, I will point out that I wish we had the President we had in 2006 again, although that year definitely brought in a "blue wave" in the midterms, which may very well repeat itself this year also. I was far more upset about that then than I will be now. Of course I have to note that nothing as ever been quite right in our country or our politics since Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. 

 

Unlike last week, the contestants all sang in the same order for this round as they did earlier in the evening. 

 

6. Keyla Richardson- "Living For The City"

 

They did not show Randy Jackson in the pre-song segments for all of these contestants this round, but they showed him with Keyla who expressed disbelief that she did not know this Stevie Wonder song. He may have had a point, but it also came across as an unfavorable edit for her.

 

 Keyla got to sing with the Season 5 winner Taylor Hicks, who was not viewed as the best singer his season, but was the most entertaining and enjoyed a large contingent of middle aged women in the "Soul Patrol." Keyla could use their votes here as well. This was a good performance all around and Keyla, who has sung a lot of ballads, went uptempo for the second time on the evening. Still though, she seemed to defer a bit to Taylor who went all out for the cameras and outshone the current hopeful a bit. There would be a lot of talk amongst the judges on Monday about the "ugly face" or "stank face" and Taylor certainly had that going. He can still perform, which may be why much of the rest of the evening was about Taylor trying to get on "Dancing With the Stars" and interviewing for a lot with the producer right there. He pretty much has to be guaranteed for that show now. Can be become the first ever Idol winner to also take a Mirror Ball trophy? If the Soul Patrol activates, anything might be possible.

 

7.  Chris Tungseth- "The Thunder Rolls"

I grasped at this point that the duets were being done to songs that the elder Idols had done back in the day.  Way back then, I did not think Bucky Covington was that good of a singer, but he sounded pretty good this week. Paula Abdul apparently forgot that Bucky had a twin brother. I would have expected her to remember that, maybe.. I did. His name was Rocky I think,.

 

Anyways, Bucky probably brought out a good performance from Chris, who seemed enthused to do something country. I just do not like this song though and do not think that either of the long-haired bearded gentlemen on stage are or were anything close to the best of their seasons.

 

8. Braden Rumfelt- "The Show Must Go On"

 

I do not recall seeing much of Paris Bennett since her season (or in person on stage at the summer tour)  when she was only 17. I think I remember reading that she had a child young. Paris (who like Chris represented Minnesota on Idol, but thankfully was not paired with him) still looks youthful and sounded great. This was a memorable take on a Queen song when she did it the first time and I liked this duet.

 

Unlike Keyla and Chris, Braden tried not to let the older, more experienced performer take over the duet, but still Paris probably outsang him, even thought I though this kind of dramatic rock ballad also works very well for Braden's voice.

 

9. Hannah Harper- "A Broken Wing"

 

Kellie Pickler caused quite a stir during her season by virtue of her appearance and extremely good comedic timing. She was not at all considered a great singer and was thought of as a very good actress and that helped her go further than she probably should have. For a while, she did have a career in country music and I think might have done a television sitcom even (which would have been perfect for her.) I also believe she once competed on "Dancing With The Stars." Recent years have seemed to be tougher on Kellie, after her husband took his life. She definitely looks a good deal different than she did 20 years ago but I thought sounded a good deal better this week than she did back then.

 

Of course, this round was really about Hannah though and her desire to get votes. Hannah was more than credible on this country duet but did not exactly have a "moment."

 

10. Jordan McCullough- "A Song For You"

 

Jordan is a worship leader who is quite adept at taking his performances "to church." He did the same here as his duet partner, Elliot Yamin on his Donny Hathaway reprisal "took it to synagogue."

 

Elliot, who finished third in his season, just ahead of a visibly shocked Chris Daughtry when that particular elimination was announced, sounded great on Monday. Jordan was even better and I think was the only current Idol to outsing the returning Idol.  All the adjectives that could be used to describe Jordan have seemingly already been deployed by me. I am sure there will be more next week.

 

Rankings for both rounds and overall:

 

5. Chris Tungseth

4, Hannah Harper

 

3,.Keyla Richardson

2. Braden Rumfelt

1. Jordan McCullough

 

Who should have been eliminated: Chris Tungseth and Hannah Harper

Who I predicted would be eliminated: Chris Tungseth and Keyla Richardson

Who was eliminated:  Chris Tungseth and Braden Rumfelt

 

All credit must be given to my mother who told me a few days before the episode aired that Jordan, Keyla, and Hannah would be the Top 3. I definitely thought that was possible, but am still considering the reality of the racial breakdown of the vote and how Keyla and Jordan are both competing for African-Americans. After all, so much is in the news these days about the Congressional redistricting and the political effect of diluting the black vote.

 

Best of luck to Chris, who seems to be a very a nice guy. It was his time to go. This week, I did think Braden was a bit better than Keyla, but I cannot be mad to any degree about her making it to the Finale over him. As mentioned, Hannah probably should have been eliminated but I did not think that would happen. I suspect that neither Chris nor Braden were surprised to reach the end of the road.

 

One can look at electoral map and note that blue state Minnesota and purple state North Carolina were sent home. The red states of Missouri, Florida, and Tennessee remain and will see hometown visits from their representatives. (All three of those states are going to be among those that will be having mid-decade Congressional redistricting this year, a disturbing trend started by Donald Trump's Republicans, and joined in turn by Democrats in a race to the bottom, but this is not the right venue to vent about that now...)

 

The three hour show next Monday night will feature three talented contestants, who are all quite a bit different vocally. Personally, I expect to enjoy Jordan and Keyla more than Hannah, but I hope all three do very well.

 

My hunch is that Keyla will finish third, unless perhaps Idol voters take more to her story or being a teacher and a parent (just like last year's winner Jamal) to the detriment of Jordan.. Otherwise, I think the Final Two come down to Hannah and Jordan, and Keyla's base of voters will swing to give Jordan the W.

 

We must keep in mind that in all previous 23 seasons of American Idol, there has never been an all African-American Final Two, and I do not think that streak is likely to be broken this year, even if it should be. 

American Idol- Top 5

We are getting down to the homestretch on the 24th season of American Idol. Monday night saw the Top 7 perform two songs and then there would be only five remaining. For some reason, comedian Nikki Glaser, who has some sort of special on Hulu to promote, was the guest judge and she showed up in a tiny and sparkly dress. Who was not present at the judges' table was Taylor Swift, the subject of Round 1, or California Governor Gavin Newsom, whose state's music was the focus of Round 2. That might have made for a more interesting panel. Next week though, we are told that Randy Jackson and Paul Abdul will be returning. That might be "a hot one, dog."

 

As for this week, the King and Queen of England were in America and they have been on Idol before, but did not show up at the Hollywood studio. Also their friend, Lionel Richie was apparently not invited to the State Dinner. 

 

1. Jordan McCullough- "Tim McGraw"

 

For this first round, Jordan reached back to the early reaches of T Swift's songbook, back when she was actually considered a country artist. I have to say, it was a bit disappointing that not many of the future Mrs. Kelce's songs that I actually know were chosen.

 

What else can be said about Jordan at this point though? He is very good vocally at whatever he attempts and always seems quite at ease on stage. He is not likely to ever make it to the Grand Ole Opry, but he did a credible job here.

 

2. Chris Tungseth- "exile"

 

Apparently, Taylor has also gone the Billie Ellish route and also has boring songs stylized in lowercase letters.

 

A couple of nights later, I do not remember much about this performance. Chris is not a horrible singer by any means, but just has seemed very bland for weeks and his ballads always sound the same. In my view, his voice is just not at the same level as most of the others.

 

3.  Hannah Harper- "Mean"

 

I sort of know this song. It is another pretty old one all things considered. For a while now, Hannah perhaps reminds long-time Idol fans of Season 7's Brooke White in some ways. Tonight, she played a banjo which possibly could be an Idol first.

 

The beginning of this performance seemed very strong from what I recall. Hannah has quite a clear and pure voice and this kind of country vibe is right up her alley. As I think she has done before though, towards the end of a performance, she sort of lost any sense of competitive intensity and it a felt a bit like she was just coasting to the finish of the song.

 

4. Brooks- "Love Story"

 

I definitely know this Taylor Swift song. I guess it is kind of a guilty pleasure. Brooks did not change the pronouns or the phrasing around which had him proclaiming himself a Princess a few times.

 

This could have been good considering that Brooks sounds like a less than perfect live female singer, much like Taylor herself. At some points, I thought it was decent but then at others, he seemed to mess up a bit on the lyrics or the entrance and it just did not feel like a smooth performance.

 

5. Daniel Stallworth- "Fearless"

 

This is a song I do not know. Perhaps that is a reason I cannot recall a lot of the musical details of it. I wish I would have been able to "live blog" this season where I write on here immediately after listening to a performance, but that just is not possible on Mondays. 

What I do remember though is that Daniel was once again impressive vocally and performance wise. He is quite good at putting his own R&B meets Gospel spin on just about everything. From the beginning of the night though, I knew the math of survival would not be in his favor.

 

6.  Keyla Richardson- "Lover"

 

Sort of the same thing is at play here. I do not know the song. That makes it harder to recall the cover performance.  Her young son was there being as supportive as always, but does not seem to be singing along with the lyrics. That might have been a good thing here.

 

What I recall is that Keyla sang it very well. There is no doubting the talent and effectiveness of her voice. It just so happens though that (much like the "Thee Divas" Idol Season 3), the three best voices this year may all be African-American. Keyla is the only female amongst them though which may or may not work to her benefit, but there was never going to be anyway they became the Top 3.

 

7. Braden Rumfeld- "cardigan"

 

Braden was really good at the taped Hawai'i show, but on the big Idol stage, he has had some missed opportunities and seemed ill at ease.

I have to say though, that Braden really impressed me this week. While I am not too familiar with the song, he gave what seemed like a genuine interpretation and fit it a lot of interesting vocal techniques, He also seemed leagues more confident than he has in the past, despite wearing a goofy sweater. I have to call it like I see it, and I thought that he really surpassed expectations.

 

Round 1 rankings:

 

7. Brooks

6. Chris Tungseth

5. Hannah Harper

4. Daniel Stallworth

3. Keyla Richardson

2. Jordan McCullough

1. Braden Rumfeld

 

Next, the Idol hopefuls all appeared in a propaganda ad by the official California tourism folks. The kids were shown having a ball and enjoying the sights of the Golden State. Nobody commented on the Gubernatorial election (which I will be doing on here this summer when "Race of the Day" returns)

 
In this ode to California, there was no visuals or mentions of smog, homelessness, sky high prices, ICE raids, or Kardashians.

 

8. Brooks- "She Will Be Loved"

If nothing else, Brooks got to sing some decent pop songs. I suppose he thought he could do the Adam Levine falsetto thing. Afterwards, I wonder if maybe "God Only Knows" by The Beach Boys would have been a better California selection for his particular voice, but he did go with a second song with "love" in the title in order to hype up his showmance with the erstwhile Idol Finalist Rae, while remaining seated on a stool once again throughout.

 

Vocally, I thought there were some decent moments. At other times, I questioned the melodic choices. Brooks does sort of seem to be just going through the motions with this whole Idol thing, but perhaps he feels he has already "won" in another way. As I have mentioned before, my parents really do not care for Brooks. I told my father I would include his line, "Brooks should be Done" on the blog. Get it? Only in America.

 

9. Jordan McCullough- "I Can't Make You Love Me"

 

This is a song that my mother always says she finds boring whenever anybody does it on Idol. I happen to think that a lot of contestants have sang this Bonnie Raitt number quite well over the years. (Is she from California?)

 

All things considered, this may have been the best vocal performance of the season. Jordan is just so skilled both in terms of his voice and his ability to communicate and emote. Right from the start on this one, I remarked that he sounded a lot like the late Luther Vandross. That might be the kind of career he would wish to have. I have been re-watching the episode over the weekend after I write my blog, so I will look forward to catching this performance again.

 

10. Daniel Stallworth- "Best Part"

Her is a newer song I do not know at all.  Daniel did very well on it though and had a very strong night overall. 

 

It began on piano and then he got up and sang it in a modern R&B style. It reminded me a lot of John Legend, for people who like that sort of stuff. That kind of music is not really my favorite, but Daniel has a ton of talent and has improved over the few weeks he has been singing on live television. If he was going down on Monday night, as I think he suspected, he would at least go down swinging.

 

11. Braden Rumfeld- "This Love"

 

Maroon 5 and their lead singer, mostly associated with rival franchise "The Voice" gets their second entry into the California sweepstakes. There are also a lot of songs with "love" in the title in both rounds.

 

I thought Braden had perhaps a bit more vocal gravitas in the first round, but this was still a good upbeat performance. His newly discovered confidence was apparent again and this sounded to use a cliche "fun" I guess. With the elimination of so many young white guys (or those that sing white guy music) this season, there is definitely a voting market still left for Braden.

12. Chris Tungseth- "What Was I Made For"

 

It occurred to me watching this how much Chris looks like the '80s wrestler, the later Big John Studd. Maybe that is why he is staying in the competition.  I obtained an autograph photo of him somehow when I was a child. 

 

Perhaps Chris should consider becomiing a professional wrestler whose shtick is "sensitive light rock singer" because his Idol performances are just not doing it for me. He never seems to have a Idol disaster like several contestants over the years have, but this plaintive.Barbie ballad was just boring. Then again, anything by Billie Elish is boring, including many of her political statements.

 

 13. Hannah Harper- "That's The Way Love Goes"

 

No, this was not the sultry Janet Jackson song from the early '90s. One can hardly imagine Hannah trying that  This was an old Merle Haggard country song that I did not know.

For this performance, Hannah stood there and sang it without a guitar or banjo. Going old school country is definitely in her interest in trying to corner a certain market. She is the only one left who can really be considered country and someone from that genre is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Finale. This was a nice performance although a little boring to me personally.

 

14, Keyla Richardson- "I'd Rather Go Blind"

 

This particular song has been done on Idol a few times before (though notably not by Scott MacIntyre). I guess there was some sort of loophole that let Etta James be considered fair game for the California theme.

 

To nobody's surprise Keyla brought it, especially at the end, as she is known to do. This may have been her strongest performance. I immediately started debating in my head if this would be ranked first or second for the round. I was just hoping there was not going to be a shock situation where either Keyla or Jordan were eliminated.

Round 2 rankings (unlike the California Jungle primary elections, two would eventually leave, not advance to the next round) 

 

7. Chris Tungseth

6. Brooks

5. Hannah Harper

4. Braden Rumfeld

3. Daniel Stallworth

2. Jordan McCullough

1. Keyla Richardson

 

So looking back at the ranking list I jotted down in a notebook on Monday night, I did put Keyla narrowly first in that round. I am not sure if I will agree upon re-watch. Her performance was perhaps just more dramatic for television and she got to go last.

 

Now, in terms of the cumulative rankings, I had two-way ties that would need to be broken for both last and first.

 

7. Chris Tungseth

6. Brooks

 

5. Hannah Harper

4. Daniel Stallworth

3. Braden Rumfelt

2. Keyla Richardson

1. Jordan Stallworth

 

Who should have been eliminated: Chris Tungseth and Brooks

Who I predicted would be eliminated: Chris Tungseth and Daniel Stallworth

Who was eliminated: Daniel Stallworth and Brooks

 

In my view, my top 5 are all a good deal better than the two I had at the bottom, but I knew I would not get my wish.

Unfortunately, it was the end of the line for Jordan, as I expected. A bit of a bigger surprise was that Brooks got the boot. A whole lot of Idol fans (such as my parents) must be relieved at that. Perhaps his "being in love" left some of the estrogen army to abandon him after all.

 

Chris continues to survive though and I still have questions as to why. Would I be correct in saying that a large portion of American women, who might be on the more portly side just think he is hot? While he is somewhat boring when he sings, at least he has a good deal more personality in general than Brooks has exhibited in front of the cameras. That must count for something.

 

However, he is doing it, but Chris has gone a lot further than many expected. The next person to worry in regards to next week should probably be Braden, but it is also possible we are headed to a shock elimination of either Keyla or Jordan.  

 

My hunch right now is that Hannah might finish as the runner-up to the one of them that survives the longest. Then again, an all-female Final 2?  It has been well over a decade since that happened and back then, it was not without a good deal of producer manipulation.