Illinois Governor- Race of the Day

 80 Days Until Election Day

Illinois Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

In all of my years watching politics in my home state of Illinois, this is the least active Gubernatorial race I can remember in terms of news. Of course, that means I will still proceed to write entirely too much about the contest.

 

Two-term ncumbent JB Pritzker is looking to become the longest serving Governor of Illinois since Republican Jim Thompson served for 14 years. Already, Pritzker recently became the longest Democrat to ever hold the office, which is pretty incredible to consider that no other Governor of that party ever served a full eight years. He is well on his way to a third straight victory in the Land of Lincoln but it is fair to say that he is not looking to break any more records. Pritzker clearly has his eyes set on Washington D.C. and the deep pocketed billionaire especially wants to be President of the United States (although one can imagine he would probably not turn down a Cabinet post in a Democrat Administration if offered.)

 

Leading up to this year, there was much speculation as to if Pritzker would seek a third term. It had looked like he planned to but there were many who thought that it would be far easier to run for President without the burden of a complicated day job. Ultimately, he decided he wanted to hold on to the office, perhaps as a fall-back if nothing else, but will clearly continue to raise his national profile from the Governorship. He has become pretty powerful in Illinois. Past Governors of both parties were often overshadowed in the state by the Mayor of Chicago or the Speaker of the General Assembly. Both of those offices have been significantly weakened over the past few years though and of course part of the story will be regarding the often fraught relationship the Governor has with the unpopular African-American Mayor and the increasingly steeped in scandal African-American Speaker.

 

In other ways, Pritzker is a smaller man than he used to be and that is part of the story as he prepares for a possible Presidential bid. He was of course quite fat and Donald Trump has been known to make note of that. The Governor has undergone a considerable weight loss though (as has his wife.) I thought that maybe he had some surgery, but it appears he is taking weight loss drugs, although he has been reluctant to confirm that publicly. Trump still makes jokes about Pritzker's size, but these days, he looks more trim than the President. There was a brief issue in May where he had visited a Springfield hospital due to some sort of urology complication and his staff initially lied to the press about the visit.

 
The very wealthy heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, who had his own career in the private sector was first elected Governor by a solid margin in 2018 over another wealthy Governor, a Republican considered a fluke victor four years earlier. Since Republican Jim Edgar left office in 1999, a series of Illinois Governors, of both parties, had been consumed with legal and political problems and a couple would wind up in prison. Pritzker though has been a far more powerful Governor with better poll numbers, if not totally beloved in the state. While Illinois has become increasingly a one party dominated state, there is also the reality that many residents here are quite upset or uncertain about the stability of the state and its future economically and socially. Jobs, the economy, crime, taxes, and illegal immigration have been real problems. Democrats have been running everything for a while now (even during a four year period of an unsuccessful Republican Governor) but the current Republican Party seems to be in no position to capitalize. 

 

In 2022, Pritzker won reelection by a 55-42 margin over then Republican State Senator Darren Bailey. Frankly, the margin should have been higher than it was. Also a very portly politician, Bailey is a farmer from southern Illinois who speaks with a country twang that sounds downright foreign in the Chicago area. That year, he came out of political obscurity to defeat several Republican opponents who either were considered more moderate than the staunchly conservative Bailey or who did not come from the geographic region that he did. Donald Trump saw some polls showing Bailey ahead of the primary field and offered an endorsement. That helped solidify a massive primary victory and a blow to whatever remained of the once vaunted Illinois GOP establishment. With the 2022 defeat of Governor Bruce Rauner and other very rich Illinois Republicans packing up and leaving the state, the financial and organizational apparatus of the state party has become very weak and is now dominated by a base of very conservative voters in a certain Downstate part of Illinois. This makes it difficult for anyone not favored there to win a primary, but also produces nominees who seem far less capable of competing in Chicagoland anywhere near to the extent that would be needed to win statewide.

 

Pritzker was able to overwhelm Bailey on the airwaves and paint him as a right-wing extremist. It certainly did not help that Bailey had continued to generate numerous gaffes and negative headlines, including after a mass shooting incident on July 4, and when he called Chicago a "hellhole." Pritzker's victory was never in doubt that the fact that he has twice won with 55 percent shows there is still a group of voters in the state who are not sold on the Democrat. This will probably be a topic of conversation in the national media next year if Pritzker runs for President. Many Democrats respect his staunch liberal stances but he is a billionaire in a party where many think billionaires should not even exist and he is a Jewish politician (along with others in the party who are likely to run for President) where there is also a flashpoint these days. If nothing else, we can say that a stronger Republican nominee in 2022 would have come even closer in the Gubernatorial race.

 

The same can be said again this cycle. We have a rematch on our hands and the margin will likely be just about the same, if not a somewhat stronger victory for Pritzker in a Trump midterm cycle. For one thing, Bailey's financial resources are going to be even more limited this year.  

After his loss four years ago, it was seen as doubtful that Bailey might run again for Governor. Instead, he launched a 2024 Congressional primary challenge to incumbent Congressman Mike Bost, by running to his right. Bailey had hoped and perhaps even assumed Trump would endorse him again, and he even made some trips to Mar A Lago, but the then Presidential candidate endorsed the incumbent instead and that pretty much ruined any hopes for Bailey. The margin only came down to two points though on Primary day, which came as a surprise to many. It definitely shows that at least in his home region, Bailey has lots of fans.

 

Now of of the State Senate, Bailey announced another run for Governor and it looked like it would be possible for him to once again win over divided opposition. His three Republican opponents were all from the Chicagoland area and campaigned on the rationale that Bailey would be unelectable in a general election. This time, Trump made no endorsement, but Bailey who took 57 percent against five opponents in the last primary with that endorsement, still won in March of this year with 53 percent against three opponents. His closest competitor was Ted Dabrowski a conservative news source online publisher who had a lot of conservatives from the Chicago area endorse him. That was not nearly enough though as he was held to just 29 percent. Pritzker did not face a primary challenge but was heavily involved in trying to sway some other races that day and was pretty successful in those efforts.

 

During the course of the primary campaign, there was briefly a question as to whether Bailey would stay in the race. He and his wife, who has been much a part of his political career, suffered an immeasurable family tragedy in October of last year when his son, daughter in law, and two young grandchildren were killed in a Montana helicopter crash. A 10 year old grandson was not onboard with the rest of his immediate family. The Baileys decided to continue with the campaign and regardless of politics, it is hard to not feel sympathy for them after such a loss.

 

In Illinois, candidates in the primaries run with their designated choice for Lt. Governor and are nominated as a ticket together. For the Democrats, Pritzker had to pick a new candidate since the incumbent Lt Governor Julianna Stratton decided to run for an open U.S. Senate seat. For several months, Stratton seemed to be struggling in that contest but Pritzker endorsed her early on and in the final weeks spent millions of dollars on Super PAC ads propping Stratton up and attacking her main primary rival. The African-American female Lt. Governor would win that race and is likely soon to be a Senator and pretty much has Pritzker to thank for all of that (I will talk about that race more in the next edition.) The Governor definitely hopes the efforts are appreciated by South Carolina primary voters, most of whom are black, in the months ahead. For this contest, he picked another African-American runningmate, and Christian Mitchell, a former State Representative who served in Pritzker's first term in the post of Deputy Governor will be the person who would become Illinois's first black Governor if Pritzker is elected this year and then leaves office before his term. Mitchell is also an active member of the Illinois National Guard, a unit that Trump has threatened to federalize due to crime in Chicago. Part of the story of Mitchell is that the former amateur has a reputation in political circles for having "sharp elbows" and has had some heated disputes, mostly with Democrats, during the time he was Deputy Governor.

 

Bailey also has a new runningmate this cycle. The African-American conservative female talk show host from Chicagoland he ran with last time endorsed Dabrowski in the primary. Now, the Republican Lt. Governor candidate is Aaron Del Mar, Filipino-American businessman (some of his early business ventures were of the risque variety.) He has held local office and has been for almost a decade now the Palatine Township Highway Commissioner in suburban Cook County, not exactly an influential post (and he was also the Republican Committeeman from there and for a time Cook County Republican Chairman.) Apparently, my family once knew some of his relatives during the time I was growing up. In 2022, Del Mar was the running-mate of another Gubernatorial candidate and even after that race ended he and Bailey had some harsh words for each other. This year, Del Mar considered running for Governor himself (which I find the concept pretty implausible) but instead made a pact with Bailey to join forces on a ticket and put bygones aside.

 

In this general election, Trump has still not issued any sort of endorsement for Bailey, and the candidate may prefer that. In some ways, Bailey has been trying to run a less divisive campaign this time around. He went before the Chicago City Council and apologized for his past comments about the city. He has even gone online to criticize those who have made fun of Pritzker's weight and made note of his own personal struggles. While very closely associated with the Evangelical community and anti-abortion politics, Bailey has said that as Governor he knows he would not be able to change the law in Illinois and would not attempt to do so. Since the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, Illinois has become sort of an abortion mecca in the Midwest, which Pritzker is proud of. In the past couple of weeks though, the Lt. Governor nominee Del Mar made some comments by appearing before a Pro-Life group and calling abortion a "sin before G-d." The Bailey campaign clarified that Del Mar was speaking purely in his personal capacity.

 

Let there be no doubt, Pritzker is going to defeat Bailey again. Why am I not calling this race Safe Democrat? Eventually, I might, but there is pretty much one specific issue that is not necessarily going to help make Bailey a more palatable option to some, but instead will cause voters to want to vote against Pritzker. That is if the Chicago Bears move to Indiana. Right now, the team is saying they are preparing to do so and the State of Indiana has gleefully passed legislation designed to lure the Bears slightly across state lines to Hammond. Until shovels are in the ground though, this is not a done deal and I am continuing to hope that the Bears wind up, as they had previously been planning to, building a new stadium in my hometown of Arlington Heights, Illinois, and thus keeping the team in Cook County.

 

This has been a very complicated and messy matter and Republicans of course are trying to pin it on Pritzker if the Bears leave Illinois. There is the matter of local school districts here in the suburbs who have not agreed to some tax matters that might not need to happen if the Bears are to build on the site of the former Arlington Park horse racing facility. The Bears ownership and team President have given off numerous mixed messages over the past couple of years and appear to be greedy in the way they want taxpapyers to subsidize a new stadium. While Indiana has been agreeable, Illinois thus far has not been able to pass a deal. This has mostly happened recently though because Brandon Johnson, the unpopular and likely one term and out Chicago Mayor has gone to lengths to prevent Arlington Heights from getting the stadium. Despite what Johnson has said, there is no realistic path to keep the Bears inside the actual City of Chicago. So, he would rather than go to Indiana than build in the Chicago suburbs. Pritzker will claim that he is standing up for the taxpayers of Illinois against millionaire owners of a sports team who are unwilling to cooperate, but it would still be a pretty significant loss for Pritzker as Governor (and his future ambitions) if the Bears leave Illinois. As I said, there is a lot of blame to go around, but I find it pretty hard to give Pritzker a complete pass. He has enormous political power in the state, especially among Democrats, and has gotten most of what he wanted through the legislature. With Democrats holding a supermajority in Springfield, I find it hard to believe he could not have found a way to twist more arms to get a deal done to finance the building of a new stadium in Illinois, at least not yet. So, this is still lingering and is probably going to cost Pritzker four or five points on the margins.

 

All things considered though, there is not much drama in this race. There is not much drama for anything in Illinois this November. I did vote in the Democrat primary this March (for reasons I will get more into in discussing the Senate race) but left the Gubernatorial portion blank. While I appreciate some of the ways Pritzker has taken on Donald Trump, I am not really a fan of the Governor. (I wrote someone in four years ago when Pritzker and Bailey first faced off.) Where I live, I do not anticipate a single competitive contest anywhere on my ballot at any level of government. All races will be won by the Democrat with or without my vote and I am certainly not willing to vote for any Trump Republicans. Pritzker is not taking any chances though and he certainly has the money to spend. He has been running ads on television since the primary ended. Recently, he put out a video in Spanish saying that Donald Trump is a racist and Darren Bailey wants to be just like him. The Republican took the bait by putting out a video response in which he accused the Governor of calling him a racist, which technically he sort of did and sort of did not do at the same time. Bailey's main point was that Pritzker was being too mean when there are more important issues facing voters. In a sense, he is right, but it's not going to matter. So much of our politics is about Trump and anybody who has worked so hard to stand with Donald Trump needs to be held accountable for that.

 
So, I have seriously considered not even voting this year, but that would feel wrong as an American. There is an Independent option on the ballot in my state this year for Governor. Colliu Corbett is a suburban Chicago based political consultant, who worked to elect Republicans. I do not know him personally, but he saw something I posted (I think about the Bears issue) on Twitter/X and was kind enough to follow me. His runningmate is Carolyn Schofield, a former McHenry County Board Member. In 2022, she ran for Lt. Governor on a ticket that finished back in the pack among Republicans. So essentially, they represent the lingering remnants of the Illinois GOP establishment I once devoted many years to supporting in state and local elections. Corbett is running as a moderate alternative to the far-right Bailey and the far-left Pritzker. These days, we need far more sensible, serious people willing to run as Independents. The Bailey campaign tried unsuccessfully to keep this ticket off the November ballot and amazingly sent out a fundraising email saying that Corbett could take "half of his votes." Well, half of Bailey's votes might not amount to a whole lot this year, but what does that say about Bailey's confidence in this campaign?

 

I know Corbett does not have a realistic chance of being competitive, but by being in the race (and by following me on Twitter), I guess I will do my civic duty this year after all and cast a ballot for him.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

7 D, (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 5 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

13 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 13 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup) 

 

 

 

Idaho U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 81 Days Until Election Day

Idaho U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Idaho voters this November will chose between a Republican, a Libertarian, and two Independents in the contest for U.S. Senate. There was supposed to be a Democrat, but that candidate recently dropped out. That was by design though and now if there was ever an opportunity for Democrats to effectively pick up a U.S. Senate seat in ruby red Idaho, this would be it. Will it happen though? Yeah, probably not. Still, with the top challenger having an I next to their name, instead of a D, this cannot exactly be classified as a "Safe R" race.

 

Of course, Idaho has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974, when a nationally prominent incumbent won a fourth term during the Watergate election. For many years now, a Democrat has been unable to win any sort of statewide election in Idaho. In a May primary, Democrats chose realtor David Roth to represent the party with 62 percent of the vote and a finish over 30 points ahead of his nearest competitor. Roth had run for office several times. In 2022 he took 29 percent as the nominee for the other U.S. Senate seat in the state, as the first openly gay statewide candidate in Idaho history. Two years later, he took 31 percent as the Democrats' nominee for one of the two Congressional districts. Needless to say, Roth was not expected to do very well in this Senate race and last month he ended his campaign, without explicitly endorsing anyone else. Idaho Democrats are not going to replace him. After all, they think that their best bet is to support a former member of their party who is running as an Independent. This tactic is being done in a couple of other red states in Senate contests this year and was also supposed to be done in neighboring Montana. However there, the Democrat refused to drop out.

 

Todd Achilles is a retired Army officer who went on to a career in business. Once a Republican, he changed his party affiliation to Democrat under somewhat specious and was appointed to the state legislature by the Republican Governor to fill a vacancy of a Democrat. He did win election to the seat not long after as a Democrat in 2024 but a few months later, announced he was now an independent and said that both parties were "fundamentally broken" (no argument from me there.) Achilles then proceeded to resign from the legislature to run for the U.S. Senate as an Independent. So now, he is the de facto nominee of a party he publicly left and may never have really been a member of to begin with. Of course being an actual Democrat is not a politically helpful thing in Idaho.

 

In this year of 2026, does incumbent Republican Jim Risch have an "Achilles Heel" problem? He probably would have been happier to face the sacrificial lamb Roth or at least have the Democrat remain on the ballot if nothing else. Risch is running for a six year term at 83 years old which raises a lot more eyebrows in this era than it might have in the past. While the Senator seems to be in good health and is respected on Capitol Hill for his intelligence and usual willingness to work across the aisle, he is a career politician in a year and indeed an era where the public seems to be very angry at the status quo.

 

Risch first became a member of the State Senate way back in 1974 and quickly became a leader in the chamber. He shockingly lost to a Democrat for reelection in 1988 and also fell short in a 1994 primary comeback attempt. He was appointed to the Senate though and began a second stint in 1996 where he joined the leadership again. He went on to twice be elected Lt. Governor and served in that office wrapped around several months where he had been elevated to the Governorship.  Risch was elected to an open U.S. Senate seat in 2008 and has been reelected twice without much of a problem in either primaries or general elections. Now, the Senator is seeking a fourth term which would keep in in Washington D.C. until he is close to age 90. In this most recent primary, Risch took two thirds of the vote against three opponents, whom I assume ran to his right.

 
The Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has not done much to anger Idahoans but in an election where Democrats in every state are expected to be highly motivated to vote, he likely faces his toughest statewide race yet. Achilles is running as a moderate option (and a candidate for Idaho Governor is doing the same as an Independent although a Democrats has remained in that race) and many voters who would not be willing to vote for anyone who shares a partisan affiliation with some high-profile national Democrats just might be willing to vote for someone who can claim to be an Independent.

 

That is far more likely to work this year in Nebraska or still even in Montana though this year than in Idaho. If Republicans are headed for a total wipeout, this race will look competitive in October but for now, Risch still has a major edge.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

4 D (2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

38 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 35 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans) 

 

Idaho Governor- Race of the Day

 82 Days Until Election Day

Idaho Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

For now, I am forecasting that incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little is "safe" in his run for a third term as Governor. However, he may not get 60 percent of the vote. There are a variety of third party and independent candidates who might receive a protest vote and hurt his margins. However, somebody running with a D next to their name in Idaho just does not too much of an opportunity to get close, even if it is a very bad year for Republicans.

 

A rancher, Little has held elective office since 2001 when he joined the State Senate. In 2009, he was appointed Lt. Governor, won two elections of his own to that office, and then in 2018 won a very competitive Republican primary for Governor in the very red state. The general election was largely a breeze, but many in the state probably preferred someone further to the right or more populist than Little. In his first term, he clashed with the more right-wing Lt. Governor, a position that is separately elected, but defeated her in the 2022 Republican primary 53-32. In the general election, the incumbent well outpaced his Democrat opponent 61-20, but a right-wing Independent took 17 percent.

In Idaho, Governors are not term limited and Little is running again, which probably brought about a sense of frustration among ambitious Republicans and disapproval of others in the state. The pattern remains clear though. Little was going to get a large chunk of the primary vote against him, but opponents were not prominent enough or well organized enough to defeat him in May. This time, Little took 59 percent against seven opponents. A former police officer and saloon owner was second with 29 percent. In 2022, Donald Trump had endorsed the incumbent's opponent, the sitting Lt. Governor, and it did not make a huge difference. This time around, Trump, now President again, sided with the incumbent, and that ended any real possibility of anybody mounting a primary challenge to Little.

 

Democrats held a four way all-female primary and nominated attorney Terri Pickens who easily won with 61 percent of the vote. In 2022, Pickens, who in that campaign also included her married name, was nominated for Lt. Governor and took 30 percent of the vote. In this current campaign, she will probably finish somewhat below that same level of support for a specific reason.

 

By any measure, Brad Little is conservative, but is considered too low-key or "establishment" to be a MAGA favorite. Idaho also has a contingent of right-leaning libertarian types. Many of these folks will look for someone else on the November ballot to vote for. One wildcard this year is that John Stegner, a former Republican and longtime former judge who served on the Idaho Supreme Court is running as an Independent. I do not claim to know all the dynamics of that candidacy but it appears that he might wind up with the most support among moderates in the state. At the same time, Idaho has a U.S. Senate contest in which is a former Democrat elected official is running as an Independent and where the official nominee of the Democrats recently dropped out giving a better shot at potentially unseating an incumbent. If that were at play here and Pickens were not still running as a Democrat, this may look like a somewhat different race.  The Stegner campaign is claiming that they would be winning a one-on one race with Governor Little. Well, perhaps, even with all the Democrats agreeing to support him, they would still need the Libertarian and the perennial Conservative candidate who is legally named "Pro-Life" to also be on the ballot.

 

I will be surprised if Stegner finishes anywhere other than third place, but his presence will take votes away from both major party nominees. In Idaho though, that just means that a Republican still has a large edge. I will keep an eye out for any full candidate polling which may lead me to change this away from "Safe" for Little.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

6 D, (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 5 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

12 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 13 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup) 

 

Hawai'i Governor- Race of the Day

 83 Days Until Election Day

Hawai'i Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Of all the races I will discuss this year this will likely produce the biggest blowout. Thus, there is really not anyway to make this too interesting. Hawai'i is perhaps the bluest state in the country and the local Republican Party is close to moribund in the Aloha State. It has to be mentioned though that in what is easily the least white of the 50 states, two white candidates are facing off for Governor, and that is the first time that has happened in Hawai'i since 1970.

 

Josh Green is seeking a second term as Governor, one of the several Jewish Democrats who currently serve or are running for Governor across America. Born and raised in the East, Green came to Hawai'i as a physician in 2000 and just a few years later was elected to the State House. From the post of Lt. Governor, Green dominated a primary in 2022 against credible opponents and then won a landslide over a former Republican Lt. Governor. Just the past Saturday, the incumbent took 89 percent against three primary opponents. The last two Democrats to serve as Governor were involved in intraparty divisions and feuds and that hurt their political standings, but Green seems to be pretty well-liked within his party.

 

For what it is worth, Republicans nominated businessman Gary Cordery, who has been active in Christian conservative causes. Republicans have been a distinct minority in Hawai'i for generations now (despite twice electing moderate Jewish Republican Linda Lingle as Governor) but these days, the party tends to be dominated by very conservative voices in the state. Cordery had finished in third place with just 11 percent of the vote in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor, but this time he took 76 percent against one opponent.

 

Per tradition, the Saturday primary also nominated candidates for Lt. Governor who will run on a ticket with the Gubernatorial contenders. Green's 2022 runningmate Sylvia Luke was suspended as Lt. Governor after she was indicted for bribery. Governor Green has called on her to resign but she has not formally done so. He selected a comptroller to serve as Acting Lt. Governor but Keith Regan was not going to be a candidate for the post. Instead, five other Democrats ran and the easy winner of the primary with 66 percent of the vote was Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. His chief opponent was State Representative Della Au Belatti who switched from a Congressional primary challenge once the position of Lt. Governor opened up. She seemed to be the candidate further to the left but only took 26 percent. I cannot say this for certain, but it would appear to me that Kawakami, hailing from Kauai, would be a big deal for his island and most if not all statewide officials have probably been from Oahu, Maui, or the "Big Island" of Hawai'i.

 

Republicans had four candidates run for Lt. Governor and the last place finisher took 18 percent. Either they all had various bases of support of a ton of people just did not know any of these candidates and voted based on the name they liked. The solid first place finisher with 38 percent though was Daniel Anthony, a nonprofit founder and advocate for "healthy food." I suppose he might be one of those RFK Jr. MAHA types, but I am not committing to research it that deeply.

 

Four years ago, as a non-incumbent, Green won in a landslide over a very credible Asian-American Republican opponent in a midterm year for a Democrat President. Now, he is an incumbent and facing a far less well known Republican challenger during a midterm election year for an unpopular Republican President. Green could approach 80 percent of the vote as he "surfs" to a second term.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

6 D, (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (1 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

12 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 12 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup) 

Georgia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 84 Days Until Election Day

 

Georgia U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

These days, most states are solidly blue or red and candidates of just one party win the big races. Over the past decade though, Georgia has continued to elect Republican Governors while alternating between the parties in the Presidential vote, mirroring the national result. Republicans should have the edge in the Senate elections, but Democrats currently hold both seats and have won three straight elections. This year, it looks like Jon Ossoff is a favorite to make it four in a row for his party, and then he will be a person of even great speculation in regards to 2028.

Ossoff grew up in an upscale suburb of Atlanta, a growing political demographic that is making the state more favorable to Democrats just like it once made it more favorable to Republicans a couple of generations ago. Long active in politics and a documentary filmmaker, he ran for Congress in a special election in 2017 at age 30. Ossoff lost the expensive race by four points, but came much closer in the district that a Democrat had been expected to. He was noted for how much he seemed to have studied the cadence and hand gestures of Barack Obama.

Passing on another try for the U.S. House, Ossoff set his sights on the Senate in 2020. With significant establishment support, including from many African-Americans, he easily captured his party's nomination against several opponents. Then, he went up against incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in a race he started off as an underdog. Ossoff hammered his opponent on ethical issues and that race along with a special Senate election taking place at the same time both became quite nasty and competitive. In November, Perdue finished first by just under two percent over Ossoff, but with the Libertarian nominee taking two percent, the race went to a January 5, 2021 runoff. The special election for the other seat also went to a runoff. With Joe Biden having defeated Donald Trump at this point, and with control of the U.S. Senate at stake, it looked like Republicans would follow past precedent and win these seats for the incumbents. However, Donald Trump spent the time in between howling about his loss in Georgia and claiming fraud, and according to many greatly depressing the Republican runoff vote. Both seats flipped to blue, with the Senate switching along with it. Ossoff beat Perdue 51-49 and immediately became Georgia's senior Senator.

Many viewed Ossoff and his colleague Raphael Warnock as somewhat of political flukes, but Warnock won reelection in 2022 in a runoff over a poor Republican candidate who had been backed by Trump. Ossoff has spent most of his time in the Senate avoiding a lot of national interviews, (in contrast to Warnock) but has lately increased his visibility. While he is currently in the middle of a competitive race for another six year term, many are talking about Ossoff as a potential 2028 Presidential candidate. He is telegenic and a strong communicator to be certain. There will be ample time to talk about the 2028 Presidential race, but in this context, I just wonder how Ossoff will be able to compete at the same time as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who is also up for reelection this year, and seems pretty obvious to run for President. If Ossoff were to run, it is hard to see how he and Shapiro (another politician who often mimics Obama) could do anything but hurt each other's chances. For one thing, both candidates are Jewish (and there are also going to be two Jewish Chicagoans running for President as Democrats) and that is of itself an "issue" for many on the left. Some claim that Ossoff does not come across as explicitly Jewish as Shapiro, and many may not even know that he is. He has tried to take a middle ground stance on Israel in recent months, but if he were to become a national candidate, Ossoff will certainly have to take a more defined stance on that relationship.  I happen to think that in theory Shapiro and Ossoff would make a strong national ticket, but there is zero chance of that happening. You can even forget that both are Jewish-Americans which of course makes the possibility completely impossible. Both are white males. That is not going to happen for Democrats in 2028.

In any event, Ossoff did not face a primary challenge this year. Republicans once again nominated a Donald Trump endorsed candidate who is probably far from the most electable in the state. The recent history in Georgia is that Trump endorsed candidates win Senate nominations while losing general elections, while Trump endorsed candidates have lost primaries for Governor, including this year.

Many national Republicans wanted term limited Governor Brian Kemp, who had shown independence from Trump after the 2020 election to run for Senate. Had he done so, he might be in a very strong position. Kemp would not run though, setting up a scramble among others in his party. Like the case for the open Gubernatorial race, controversial Congresswoman (at the time) Marjorie Taylor Greene also did not run. Trump claims that she clamored him to support her in a statewide bid and he told her she could not win. That may or may actually be true, but the two former allies definitely had a major falling out. John King, Georgia's Insurance Commissioner got in the race and then quickly got out to seek reelection after it became clear that he had little path to the nomination and Kemp wanted someone else.

The candidate Kemp wound up supporting was Derek Dooley a former college football coach and first time candidate. That sort of thing worked in Alabama but it was a different situation in Georgia. Dooley was a Georgia native and is the son of the late Vince Dooley, who was a very beloved coach of the Georgia Bulldogs. The candidate's mother was also a well-known radio host, but Dooley never seemed to click in the Senate race, even as he tried to appeal to the MAGA crowd.

Also running was Congressman Buddy Carter, a one-time establishment Republican from South Georgia who was first elected in 2014. In this race, he called himself a "MAGA Warrior" and tried to present himself as an unyielding ally of Trump. The guy in the White House though preferred Congressman Mike Collins, who joined the House after the 2022 election. The trucking executive is the son of the late Congressman Mac Collins who won in 1992 as Republicans started to make major gains in Georgia, but then lost a 2004 Senate primary and a 2006 U.S. House comeback attempt.

Unlike his colleague Carter, it is hard to argue that Mike Collins was not truly MAGA. He was well known for trolling (some would say humorous) posts on social media defending Trump and taking on liberals. He also faced an Ethics inquiry in the House, which some say is a positive thing these days among Republican primary voters. In May, Collins took 41 percent while Dooley was second with 30 percent, probably winning the lion's share of any Trump skeptic voters in the party. Carter took 25 percent. I noted at the time that on the Sunday before the primary, Carter was in Washington D.C. doing a Sunday morning panel on CNN (which he did poorly on) instead of campaigning at home. I think he was probably resolved to defeat by that point. Collins took the June runoff by 11 points which was hardly a surprise, but perhaps not an overwhelming show of force for a candidate who had Trump's endorsement.

The very well funded Ossoff took off against Collins for this general election with rhetorical guns blazing. He called his opponent a nepo baby, a racist, and an anti-Semite. There is certainly some examples from the Congressman's social media posts to back up the racist assertions. Furthermore, some recent revelations have shown the Collins' son in law, who was featured prominently in campaign photos, and who has worked as part of his father in law's business, is a social media influencer with well documented white supremacist views and clear antisemitic sentiments. Collins has denied he is a bigot but clearly is sensitive about these questions regarding his son-in law. Of course, candidates are not responsible for the beliefs of all their family members, but Collins seemed to have close business and personal ties to this individual and it is hard to claim he did not know how his son in law felt about Jews and other minorities. If the political shoe were on the other foot, Republicans definitely would be making these same sort of issue about a Democrat's son in law.

Georgia is a southern state with many conservatives. This race was never going to be a blowout. I do not expect the need for a runoff though (which would take place on December 1) even with the presence of a frequent Libertarian Party nominee. Ossoff seems to have an edge in this race according to the polls and has a massive financial advantage.

Herschel Walker was a poor nominee for the Senate in Georgia four years ago and Collins is a poor nominee this year. He comes across as very much a southern "Bubba" type which will play well in some parts of the state but less so with urban and suburban voters, especially African-Americans and Latinos. While Ossoff would still have an edge, I believe Dooley or even Carter would have been stronger general election candidates. Trump allegedly told MTG (accurately) that she could not win a Senate race in Georgia. Why though would he think Mike Collins can?

I think Ossoff will win this contest in the high single digits, further cementing his political resume. He will then be asked on a daily basis about 2028 and the allure of a run might be hard to resist. Perhaps he should though. After all, he only turns 40 next year.

Senate races predicted thus far: 

4 D (2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

38 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 34 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans) 

Georgia On My Mind, But I Did Not Have The Time

 85 Days Until Election Day

Vicki Lawrence once sang about "The Night The Lights Went Out in Georgia" and tonight, far away from the Peach State, I had an unexpected household repair issue, that thankfully seems to be resolved but prevented me from putting aside 20-30 minutes to writing about the U.S. Senate race.

So, the Race of the Day will resume tomorrow... probably. For my own sake, I will try to be limiting these days off as much as possible.

Georgia Governor- Race of the Day

 86 Days Until Election Day

Georgia Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Tossup (R)

 

This definitely feels like the sort of Tossup race that is too soon to actually predict. The political ground might still settling in Georgia after the May primary and June runoff and it seems like there are definite reasons for Democrats to be optimistic about winning their first Gubernatorial election in the state since 1998. I feel like it is entirely possible to change my eventual predictions. For now though, it seems like at least a small benefit of the doubt must be given to Republicans in an open contest.

 

Outgoing Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited. He was a Trump endorsed MAGA acolyte when he emerged as the sitting Secretary of State in the 2018 Republican primary over a more establishment favorite. He twice won the Governorship over Democrat Stacey Abrams, a former State House Minority Leader who received a tremendous amount of national coverage in her bid to become the first African-American woman ever elected Governor. Their first race was extremely close and Abrams proved reluctant to concede the election. The rematch was more decisive in favor of Governor Kemp. In the meantime though, Kemp ran afoul of Donald Trump in refusing to go along with extreme plans to claim that Trump and not Joe Biden was the rightful winner of Georgia's electoral votes in 2020. Furious by a perceived lack of loyalty, Trump recruited and endorsed a primary challenger to Kemp in 2022, but the state's Republican voters decided to stick with the incumbent in a landslide fashion. Some have talked about Kemp as being a potential Presidential candidate who might now not be tarnished with an association with Donald Trump, but Republican Presidential primary voters probably are not even looking for someone like that anyway. Since 2024, Trump and Kemp appear to have somewhat smoothed over their spat.

 

With the Governorship opened, a wide bevy of candidates in both major parties were interested. For Democrats though, there was perhaps a fear that Abrams might make a third bid, after having already twice failed. Many breathed a sigh of relief when she did not run. Then, the frontrunner looked like it could be Congresswoman Lucy McBath, also an African-American woman, but someone who had won tough political races in suburban Atlanta. McBath though would exit the race due to her husband's health and is now running for reelection in what is now a solidly blue district. Former State Senator Jason Carter was mentioned as a potential strong candidate, especially in the aftermath of the passing of his grandfather, former President (and Georgia Governor) Jimmy Carter. The younger Carter, who lost as his party's Gubernatorial nominee in 2014, but he ruled out a bid amid his wife's battle with brain cancer.

 
Among the major candidates who did run as Democrats for Governor of Georgia, most were African-American, going along with the reality that black voters represent the key demographic of the party in many southern states. Mike Thurmond, who spent 12 years as Georgia's elected Labor Commissioner and who was his party's 2010 U.S. Senate nominee decided to make a bid for Governor at the age of 73. More recently, the party stalwart had served as the CEO of populous DeKalb County. Thirty years younger than Thurmond, State Senator Jason Esteves, who is black and of Puerto Rican descent emerged as the favorite of many party activists and he was endorsed by Jason Carter. Also in the field was Keisha Lance Bottoms, who was elected Mayor of Atlanta in 2017 and served one term leading the state's largest city amid tumultuous times and did not seek a second term. The daughter of the late R&B singer Major Lance, Bottoms even had been talked about for a while as a potential Biden 2020 running-mate. In the new Administration, she was not chosen for a Cabinet position. In 2022, she became a White House advisor to Biden, but only stayed at that post for less than a year. In the primary for Governor this year, Bottoms received a rare candidate endorsement by Joe Biden.

 
The one major white candidate seeking the Governorship as a Democrat was former Lt. Geoff Duncan, a time one Republican rising star. The former minor league baseball player was elected to the second highest state government spot, in a separate election, in 2018, the year Kemp won the Governorship. Considered a standard conservative Republican, Duncan broke with MAGA over the 2020 election brouhaha in Georgia. He went much further than Kemp did and it was clear he would not be able to seek another term. Duncan tried to advocate a post-Trump future for the Republican Party but burned many bridges. Some wanted him to run as an Independent for President in 2024 (I would have been one of them), but Duncan eventually endorsed Kamala Harris and spoke at her nominating convention. The Republican Party in Georgia voted to expel Duncan and he would soon become a Democrat running for Governor. In doing so, he did move to the left on such issues as abortion, which I think has to be considered at least a mark against his authenticity, though I greatly admire his being willing to sacrifice a promising political career, rather than just submitting himself to Trump, like so many Republicans had. In theory, I think it was fairly obvious that if Democrats had nominated Duncan, he would have had the most capacity to take Republican voters away in a general election, but in a state where Democrats have won some recent statewide contests, he was never going to seen as a "break glass" option and the party was always more likely to go with someone who had been a Democrat for a much longer time.

 

As it turned out, the Biden endorsement might have had a lot more influence in Georgia Gubernatorial primaries than the Trump endorsement has lately. Bottoms won in the primary big. She took 56 percent of the vote, well more than enough to avoid a runoff. Esteves was second with 19 percent, Thurmond took 13 percent and Duncan took just seven percent and finished fourth out of seven. Now, Keisha Lance Bottoms is in the position that Stacey Abrams twice was as her party's nominee in Georgia and has the chance to become the nation's first black female Governor.

 

The Republican field was also very crowded and produced a surprise victor who was a late entry to the fray. One person who did not run after apparently considering it and according to Donald Trump sounding him out on the possibility was Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene a combative one-time MAGA darling who is another politician who would have a major falling out with Trump. When that political divorce occurred, Greene announced her resignation for Congress and is now a sworn critic of Trump, while maintaining some far-right views on social issues and some would say a far-left isolationist foreign policy vision.

 

Chris Carr, the Republican Attorney General, tried to get an early jump  in the race for Governor, but his campaign never took off and he finished fourth of eight in the May primary with 12 percent. Another statewide elected official who ran was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, another conservative elected official who became a target of Trump in regards to the 2020 Georgia Presidential count. Raffensperger even recorded a conversation in which the then defeated President told him to find another votes to allow him to win Georgia, and Trump would wind up being indicted in Atlanta over that whole episode. Trump vowed revenge, but like Kemp, and even more impressively so, Raffensperger won a primary for re-nomination in 2022 and did not even require a runoff on his way to a second term as Secretary of State. Many wondered what he was thinking in running for Governor in 2026, but I will say at the converse to the Duncan situation, as the Republican nominee, Raffensperger probably could have had the easiest time in appealing to anti-Trump independents and some Democrats. In running for Governor, Raffensperger, to his credit, never denounced his efforts in enforcing Georgia election law, nor directly embraced Trump, but the soft-spoken candidate did dye his hair darker and took some pains on hot-button issues to remind voters he was actually a conservative after all. Those who took their cues from Trump though were never even going to entertain the notion of his candidacy. The Democrats who admired Raffensperger probably did not give much sympathy for him either after he tacked right in the primary and he finished third with 15 percent as two other candidates advanced to a June Republican runoff.

 

As was the case in Georgia in 2022, Donald Trump's endorsed candidate was not nominated for Governor. He has had more success in the state in picking Republican U.S. Senate candidates, but those folks have gone on to lose to Democrats. More about that in the next Race of the Day. As for this contest though, Trump could not deliver the nomination to Lt. Governor Burt Jones. For that matter, neither could Governor Kemp, whom in this instance, sided with Trump and endorsed Jones in the final weekend before the runoff.

 

Jones did finish first in the crowded May primary with 38 percent of the vote. An early Trump backer in the state, he won the Lt. Governorship by a five percent margin in 2022. In 2020, Jones had been part of the alternate state of electors that Trump wanted as part of the Electoral College, even though Joe Biden won the state. The then State Senator was not charged in Fulton County but was named as an unindicted co-conspirator.

 

For months leading up to the primary, it seemed pretty likely that Jones would be the Republican nominee for Governor and after that point would face questions about his electability statewide. Then came the surprise announcement of Rick Jackson. A very wealthy healthcare executive, "Action" Jackson announced he would run for Governor and was willing to spend millions of his own dollars to do so. At 72 years old, Jackson was 25 years older than Jones and positioned himself as an outspoken political outsider, much in the mold of Donald Trump. He claimed to be aligned with Trump on the issues, even though Trump had by this point endorsed Jones. In the first round of the primary, Jackson took about 33 percent of the vote. In the runoff, the name-calling between the two men got even more intense. Even as Jackson received endorsements from former candidate Chris Carr and nationally known conservative names like Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, the anticipation was still that the Trump backed Jones would prevail. The establishment suffered a loss though when Jackson beat Jones 53-47, It was the second straight endorsement loss for Donald Trump in regards to the Republican candidate for Governor of Georgia and he probably wished he would have issued a late-game "co-endorsement" so he could claim to have a perfect record, but the result was in and an outsider businessman had won the nomination and those on the other side including the current and former Republican Governors of Georgia would  have to come around quickly to Jackson. After his runoff L, Trump seemed to only focus on the fact that Raffensperger lost the nomination, but that had happened the month earlier and was hardly a surprise.

 

Looking ahead to the general election, both candidates have nominated candidates who probably appeal more towards those in the ideological bases of their parties and less towards the middle. Someone has to win though. A bunch of early polls show a very small lead for the Democrat Bottoms, which probably comes as a huge surprise to many Republicans considering Georgia is a southern state, but of course it was a key swing state in 2024 Presidential election and has been very close in recent cycles in several races. Democrats have of course won the last three U.S. Senate elections in the Trump era and are looking for a fourth this year on the same ballot as the Gubernatorial election.

 

I happen to think that the polls right now may not tell the whole story as first-time candidate and surprise nominee Jackson is probably not too well-known to many Republicans and he may still be in the process of coalescing the party behind him. Jackson has an appealing personal story but his business record will be highly scrutinized in attempts to make him look bad to economic populists. Bottoms will have an easier time in uniting Democrats, and that is a plus for her, but she is still someone who is likely to struggle heavily in the rural parts of the state and many small towns. Being Mayor of Atlanta during Covid and during the race-fueled riots in the summer of 2020 will be frequent topics of conversation among those trying to defeat her. Bottoms' time in the Biden White House, while perhaps a positive among Democrats in the primary, is likely not to be something that plays well with the statewide electorate.

 

For better or worse, Jackson's fate in this race will be tied to Donald Trump. The political reality is that Trump has some pretty bad polling numbers these days and a lot of his softer 2024 voters are believed to have regrets. Are they willing to vote for any Democrats or will they view Keisha Lance Bottoms as being too far to the left causing them to stick with a Republican? All things considered, Brian Kemp is a reasonably popular Governor right now and electing a Democrat would be a sign of major change. Some on the right continue to be mad at Kemp and the state political establishment for not redrawing Congressional maps at the urging of Trump as other states have leading up to this year's elections. Is it possible that Republicans may stay at home in this midterm? That was definitely a factor in play in the general election runoffs of 2020 when after Trump accused the state's elections of being corrupt, two Republican incumbents lost their Senate seats to Democrats.

I would argue though that Jackson is at least somewhat of a stronger general election candidate than Jones would have been. After all, nobody can claim he was Trump's guy at the start, but the White House now definitely will be saying they are firmly behind the Republican nominee. Rick Jackson though will face questions though regarding his age and ability to reach out beyond his political base.

 

To conclude, I feel pretty confident that if Election Day winds up being an unmistakable blue wave, Keisha Lance Bottoms will make history in Georgia. At the moment though, we are at least several weeks away from knowing that will happen and with the racial background of the nominees reversed, this is a similar situation to the Florida Gubernatorial election. Georgia is probably actually a more winnable state than its southern neighbor for Democrats but at the moment, I will give the slightest of edges to Republicans and their free-billionaire candidate keeping their long Gubernatorial streak going.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

5 D, (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (1 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

11 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 12 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup) 

 

Florida U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 87 Days Until Election Day

Florida U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Democrats have several opportunities to make pickups in the U.S. Senate this year. Many feel that Florida will be one of them, while others think the recent Republican history of the state might make such a prospect "fool's gold" and that a serious effort could be resources wasted that would be better spent elsewhere. We will probably have a better idea after the August 18 primary and the official confirmation of a nominee for Democrats who might have the most appeal to those outside the party. For now, this is a lower tier race for the DSCC than other states on the map where pickups could occur and a couple where the party is defending.

 

The Sunshine State is holding a special Senate election. The winner will have to face the voters again in 2028. This race is to fill the last two years of the term won in 2022 by Republican Marco Rubio. When the newly elected Donald Trump selected his former 2016 rival turned eventual lapdog Rubio to be Secretary of State, that left it open for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to pick a replacement.Some wondered if the lame duck DeSantis might want the job for himself, but such a self-appointment would not have gone over well. There was also speculation as to if DeSantis was really free to pick whomever he wanted or if Trump was going to dictate the selection. Talk emerged that Lara Trump, the daughter in law of the President, and serving at the time as co-chair of the Republican National Committee might be named to serve the state where so many members of the Trump family now lived. She was also talked about as a candidate in her native North Carolina. Ultimately, DeSantis picked Ashley Moody, the state's Attorney General. This also allowed the Governor to name his own Attorney General in the state.

 

Moody came from a prominent legal family in Florida, although they were thought of as Democrats. In 1998, when she was beginning her own career, she switched parties and joined the ascendant Florida GOP. In 2006, she was elected as a judge in Hillsborough County and served there until winning the first of two terms as Attorney General in 2018. While she had strong ties to the establishment wing of the Republican Party, in office she conduced herself in a way that would have been considered very pleasing to the wishes of Trump and has definitely followed suit during her time thus far in the Senate. She is facing some little known primary opponents in this month's contest but Moody will prevail there.

 

As is often the case with an least sorta open race, many Democrats in Florida considered running for Senate, but few followed through. A couple entrants got out of the race to pursue more winnable offices or in deference to a somewhat surprise candidate who was guaranteed to raise the most money. That person would be Alex Vindman, a retired Army Lt. Colonel who served on the staff of the National Security Council during Trump's first term. From that post at the White House, he received national attention for being the "whistleblower" of Trump's attempts to shake down President Volodymyr Zelensyy of Ukraine, the country where Vindman had been born, in regards to them investigating the Biden Family in advance of the 2020 elections. These revelations would lead to Trump's first Impeachment trial. In this White House job, Alex Vindman happened to work with his twin brother Eugene Vindman and both Iraq War veterans were involved in exposing what Trump claimed was a "perfect phone call" though Alex's role was more significant.  In 2024, Eugene Vindman won a highly competitive election for an open U.S. House seat in Virginia as a Democrat.

 

The brothers, came with their widowed father and older brother as young children to the U.S. from what was then the Soviet Union in 1979 and settled in New York City. They even appeared together as kids in a Ken Burns documentary about the Statue of Liberty and what it meant to them to be Americans. Considering their refugee background and distinguished service in uniform, they have truly symbolized the American Dream and I personally am a fan of them for the courage it took to speak up when they saw wrongdoing at the White House. Florida is a state with a large Jewish population, including many who had once lived in New York, but Alex Vindman would become a somewhat rare Jewish nominee for the U.S. Senate in the state.

 

Like Florida's likely Democrat nominee for Governor who was once a Republican, Vindman comes from a background of not having any sort of record within the party. He (and his brother) appears to be a visible Democrat solely because of his part as a whistleblower against Trump. He has one primary opponent and that is someone with a name associated with Republicans, but definitely further to the left. State Representative Angie Nixon, an African-American labor organizer. For a variety of reasons, many progressives in Florida and beyond have a clear preference for Nixon over Vindman and without much in the way of primary polling, it is hard to be certain that Vindman is going to actually be nominated. I think that he probably will though, although a close race would not shock me. Whomever wins, will have to then face the task of unifying the party in a general election against Moody.

 

Right now, both Democrats have appeared in polls that show them trailing Moody by around the same single digit margin. This seems to indicate this race has not gotten a ton of attention yet and both are sort of considered generic stand-ins for their party against the Republican. Vindman happens to have an enormously larger cash advantage than Nixon though, which should help him in the primary, and certainly make it a much smarter idea for Florida Democrats to nominate him over a far more leftist opponent in a state like Florida. There seems to be a likely scenario in Florida where the Democrats nominated for Governor, Lt. Governor, and U.S Senate will all be white in such a diverse state, and that sort of concern about identity politics could play a role here, as there is also a lot of controversy regarding the handful of Democrat leaning Congressional districts left in the state after a DeSantis led redistricting action earlier this year.

 

If Vindman advances to face Moody, this should be a competitive race and he will have the opportunity to appeal to swing voters. The Democrat is not exactly the smoothest candidate though politically and like his brother appears a bit ill at ease at times on camera For her part, Moody seems to have taken on the persona of someone who is always trying to serve up rhetorical red meat to the MAGA base and can come across as a bit cringy in her own right. Some are saying though she is running too cautious of a campaign and that the effort may lack the polished sophistication of some recent Republican Florida winners.

 

A strong blue wave in November washing up on Florida could flip this seat, which would certainly mean Democrats have taken over the Senate. We might not truly be able to see that happening though until the campaign's final weeks. While Florida Democrats should welcome the opportunity to at least be firmly in the fight, the reality is that Republicans hold sway and it will be tough for any Democrat to win a federal election barring some sort of major mistake by the appointed incumbent.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

3 D (2 Safe, 1 Tossup), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

37 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Tossup) 34 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans)  

Florida Governor- Race of the Day

 88 Days Until Election Day

 

Florida Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook:Tossup (R)

 

On Election Night, few stories might wind up making national headlines more than if Democrats flip the Governorship of Florida. Personally, I would like to see it happen and believe there are legitimate reasons to think it could. I also have to try to make sure that wishful thinking is not getting in the way of better judgment. Thus, until we get closer to the actual election, one has to assume that Republicans will manage to still win in a state they have dominated, first in close races, then by much bigger margins since around 1998.

 

The election of Jeb Bush all that time ago ushered in a period of major conservative policy initiatives in the Sunshine State. While it is true that today's Republicans are very different than the Bush Republicans I was proud to support, this is an office that Democrats have not win since their last victory in 1994. After two election wins, the first by a small margin when he was considered the underdog and the second by a larger than anticipated landslide, Ron DeSantis is term-limted. Still just 47 years old, here retains national ambitions but has been hurt nationally and at home within his party by his once highly touted primary challenge to then former President Donald Trump in 2024. That did not go well for DeSantis and so much of the intraparty battles within Florida since have been between those who backed the Governor and those who stuck with Trump and wound up on the winning side. DeSantis occasionally makes statements designed to appeal to conservatives nationally, but he is in the position now where he has to show subservience to the President who had all sorts of nasty nicknames for him during 2023 and the first weeks of 2024. These days, it appears that Trump appears to publicly be over the feud.

 

There is no denying that DeSantis has been a consequential Governor who yielded a lot of power. Since his Presidential defeat though, many in his own party have not gone along with everything he wanted. As the race to replace him started to take shape, there was speculation that his wife Casey DeSantis, a very active advisor to her husband would run for Governor, but that did not happen. By this time, Donald Trump had endorsed his pick, a loyal Congressman named Byron Donalds, who stands pretty likely to win the upcoming August 18 primary. If Donalds wins in November, in red friendly Florida, he will become the first African-American Republican ever elected as a Governor anywhere, as well as becoming Florida's first black Governor.

 
Donalds is a native of New York City, which is not uncommon for many Floridians. He had a bit of a rough upbringing and faced criminal charges related to marijuana and theft. He moved to Florida for college and as a young man was registered as a Democrat. Donalds worked in the financial industry and fared poorly in a crowded 2012 Republican primary for Congress. He went to be elected though to the Florida House and in 2020 won a crowded Republican primary for an open seat in Congress. On Capitol Hill, he has been a steadfast defender of Donald Trump at every turn. Frequently appearing on television, Donalds has been a well-spoken and on message communicator of conservative talking points and became well-known nationally as one of the few black Republicans in Congress. Trump took a liking to him politically, perhaps thinking that he used to be a football player. While he looks like he could have played, he never did. Donalds received some votes for House Speaker, which he did not discourage, during the various messy leadership battles Republicans have had in recent years. While Donalds is a fairly smooth talker, he does exactly come off as gregarious. His demeanor is usually pretty steady but sort of aloof. In that regard, he has something in common with DeSantis.

 

The outgoing Governor has not made an endorsement in this race, likely not wanting to once again find himself doing battle with Trump, but he has seemed to clearly prefer someone else get the job. Florida primary fields are often crowded and this race is no exception. The main challenger to Donalds is Jay Collins, who as a State Senator was appointed by DeSantis to the vacant position of Lt. Governor, where he now serves. A decorated combat veteran, Collins lost a leg as a result of his service in Afghanistan. Having a staunchly conservative record, Collins has been spending the past few months going after the frontrunner Donalds, claiming that he is not conservative enough and could have electability issues. He has even tried to make an issue over Donalds apparent past as a weed dealer. While he point out on his website that he was "appointed" by DeSantis, the Governor has not officially endorsed Collins.

 

The path to coalescing anti-Donalds votes in the primary is complicated by the number of candidates. Former State House Speaker Paul Renner is running, and while he would not try to claim this publicly, is seen by some as a remnant of the time when Jeb Bush was the top Republican in Florida. Instead, Renner tries to join in on hot button issues that appeal to the MAGA base, with the hope that some might like that he has more government experience. Then, there is 31 year old investment firm founder James Fishback. He all sort of questions surrounding his professional and personal life and while he denied being a bigot, Fishback has clear ties to white supremacist and Christian nationalist movements. Originally, he claimed to be the rightful heir to DeSantis, but has gone much further in trying to draw attention to himself, including making claims, that some doubt, that he and his staff have been the victims of arson and other attempts to harm him. Fishback will probably finish third in the primary, and it is pretty amazing that the Groyper vote has become as significant as it appears to be in Florida. The controversial candidate has been endorsed by Tucker Carlson for example. Collins needs to try to hurt Fishback politically in order to boost himself up and Donalds of course has to be concerned that some of his supporters will prove reluctant to vote for a black man in a general election.

 

Polling suggests that Congressman Donalds will win the primary this month, but his campaign has not exactly been seen as overly vibrant. Relying on" The Donald's endorsement may be more than enough for Donalds but it will be interesting to see what his margin is. Frankly, anything under 60 percent should be considered somewhat of a red flag. Moving forward though, it is hard to see Donalds really trying to differentiate himself from Florida resident Trump on anything substantial, regardless of any popularity issues the lame duck President currently has.

 

The Democrats' nominee for Governor is, as was the case twice with former Governor Charlie Crist, likely to be another former Republican. With many Democrats taking a pass on trying to win in a state where Republican voter registration has continued to surge, an opportunity presented itself to David Jolly.  A native Floridian, Jolly had a career as a Republican Congressional staffer and then as a lobbyist. In 2014, he won a highly contested special election to Congress to succeed his former boss who had died in office. Seen as a fairly moderate Republican, Jolly cruised to a full term that year but then in 2016, was thrown into a district that was less favorable. At first, he sought the Senate seat being vacated, at least at the time, by Presidential candidate Marco Rubio, Then, when Rubio decided to run for reelection, Jolly jumped back into a House race. That year though, he lost to none other than Democrat Charlie Crist,who was in between his turns as his new party's nominee for Governor. Jolly would go on to be a frequent critic of Donald Trump on television shows, and formally left the Republican Party in 2018. In 2025 he became a Democrat and has moved somewhat to the left on some issues, in advance of his run for Governor.

 

Jolly had been facing a primary challenge from Jerry Demings, the Mayor of Orange County, and also the husband of former Congresswoman Val Demings, who had been considered by Joe Biden to be his runningmate in 2020 and who lost a U.S. Senate race by a solid margin in 2022 to Marco Rubio. Jerry Demings was seen as a credible candidate with a base of African-American support in his home area of Orlando as well as some other places, but he dropped out of the race in June after being diagnosed with a treatable form of prostate cancer. It appeared Jolly had the nomination locked up, but he has since been challenged by State Representative Dotie Jacobs, a Hatian born woman from the Miami area. Jacobs has received some support from the more progressive factions of the party, but is not expected to come too close to Jolly in the primary vote. It will be important for the eventual nominee though to do well among minority groups in Florda, many of whom had gravitated in larger numbers toward Trump and other Republicans in recent years. 

 

Jolly also has to contend with suspicion that some Democrats have with him over his years as a Republican politician. In the general election, candidates run on tickets with their selection for Lt. Governor and they usually make that choice after the primary. Donalds has yet to pick somebody, but might be inclined to go with a Latino running-mate. Jolly has already made his selection though and it is someone with a prominent name in the state and whom a lot of Democrats probably wish would have run for Governor herself. Gwen Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham who served as Governor and U.S. Senator. The senior Graham never lost an election in Florida, but did not catch on among Democrats when he ran for President in 2004. Before that, he was always seemingly on the short list for his party's Vice Presidential nomination. Now, his daughter has been chosen by someone for the number two spot. Graham captured a Republican U.S. House seat in 2014, and overlapped with Jolly in the Florida Congressional delegation. The 2016 redistricting that cost Jolly his seat as a Republican also had the Democrat Graham not seek reelection in her district. Graham ran for Governor in 2018 but narrowly finished second to a more liberal African-American candidate who would go on to lose to DeSantis (and has since faced a slew of legal problems.) Had Graham won that primary in '18, she probably would have become Governor and the politics of Florida would be very different today.

 

The Jolly-Graham ticket is one that could appeal to many Florida independents and disaffected Republicans. The thinking is that Democrats will go along with supporting it as well considering the Republican alternative. However, a victory in Florida these days is still an uphill battle for any Democrat. Florida used to be the ultimate political battleground and races for Governor and U.S. Senate wound up razor tight, although Republicans prevailed in some highly profile ones. The last couple of cycles though has seen the state move from purple to red. It will take a national wave for Jolly to win but there are a lot of reason to believe that Donalds could be vulnerable politically.

 

Polling has tended to show Donalds up by a few points, but under 50 percent and with a lot undecided. Democrats will try to paint the Republican as a puppet of Trump and as someone who will not be as an effective of an executive as many consider the outgoing DeSantis to be. Republicans will try to tie Jolly, despite his moderate Republican lineage, to radical socialists running as Democrats in other states, in the hope that the large amount of Latino voters who have family roots in socialist societies will once again turn out to vote against that. White Republicans and a Latino Republican have proven politically successful statewide in Florida, but will the same be able to be said about a black Republican? There is no doubt that the election of Byron Donalds would be historically significant and will catapult him into the conversation regarding future national candidates. It just so happens that so many of them right now in the Republican Party are also from Florida.

 

Based on the uncertainty of Florida's political environment on Election Day right now, in the midst of very bad numbers for Donald Trump and his party, I think this race looks like a Tossup. However, until there are further significant developments, one cannot quite yet vote against a Republican pulling through.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

5 D, (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 3 R (1 Safe, I Likely, 1 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

11 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 11 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup) 

Delaware U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 89 Days Until Election Day

Delaware U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

The First State always holds one of the nation's latest primaries and that will be the case again, as nominees will be chosen on September 15. In the race for U.S .Senate there are four Democrats on the ballot and two Republicans. It is beyond obvious that incumbent Senator Chris Coons will wind up representing the Democrats in November and Republican Mike Katz, will probably be the Republican nominee, although perhaps I could be misjudging that. Regardless, Coons will easily win a third full term.

 

Basically, the most interesting aspect of this low-profile race are all the party switches involves. Coons himself, who grew up in a wealthy and prominent family, grew up as a Republican and considered himself one. He eventually became a Democrat, and even jokingly referred to his transition in his college years to a "bearded Marxist", which many of the kids in the party can certainly relate to today. The county executive of Delaware's largest county, received a huge break in 2010, when running in a special election that was being held to fill the seat which had been held by then Vice President Joe Biden. A moderate Republican, who had been a political fixture in the state was expected to be his opponent and favored for the general election, but Mike Castle lost to Tea Party backed Christine O'Donnell, in a year where the Tea Party held a lot of power. After this primary upset, Coons found himself in a very strong position against a candidate who swore was "not a witch." There are perhaps parallels that can be made today to some Democrats that are winning primaries in what should be a huge year for their party, but who might prove to be unpalatable or seen as extreme in a general election.

 

Coons has since won reelection in 2014 and 2020 and is considered to be respected on both sides of the aisle. He was very close to his fellow Delawarean Joe Biden and was frequently on television defending him. Of course, this became extremely awkward for Coons, like many other Democrats, after Biden's disastrous 2024 debate which eventually drove him from the race. Many Delaware Senators have had very long stints on Capitol Hill though and Coons seems to be planning on the same.

 

Three candidates are running to oppose Coons in the primary, but are not much of a threat. One of them though is the man who was the 2024 Republican nominee for U.S .Senate. Corporate executive Eric Hansen took almost 40 percent two years ago in an open seat race, which was pretty much what he would have been expected to receive. Hansen was seen as a somewhat moderate Republican but since losing that race, he has apparently gone full anti-MAGA. He is now running for Senate as a Democrat, and appearing on the ballot as "E No-Trump" Hansen. That is really taking things to a different level. Had he run again as a Republican, he might have been in position to be nominated again. I do not fully understand why he is running against Coons instead of endorsing him if he has switched to being a Democrat, but maybe Hansen just really likes to run for office.

 

On the Republican side, Army Reserve Colonel John Shulli is running and seems to be embracing a fairly strong pro-Trump platform. The nomination will probably go to the candidate who is running with the official part endorsement in the state, and like Hansen (and for that matter Coons), is someone who has changed parties.  Mike Katz, a physician, served four years in the Delaware Senate as a Democrat. In 2012, he lost reelection to a Republican, a year after suffering serious injuries in a ski lift accident. In 2020, Katz announced a quixotic bid for President as a Democrat but did not receive much in the way of coverage. By 2024, he was an Independent and running for the open Senate seat. He took four percent in November.

Now, Katz is a Republican and received the endorsement of the party at an April gathering. The Republican bench in Delaware is not exactly deep these days. Throughout his political career, Katz has fashioned himself as a sort of "common-sense" centrist, but it is hard to really pin down what makes him any different as a Republican now as he was as a Democrat, besides just going along with the prevailing attitudes within the party.

 

Even with Joe Biden officially retired from politics, tiny Delaware is one of America's bluest states, and the wonkish Coons will not have any trouble this year winning another term.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

3 D (2 Safe, 1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

37 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe)  

Connecticut Governor- Race of the Day

 90 Days Until Election Day

 

Connecticut Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

In federal elections, Connecticut has been reliably Democrat seemingly for generations now, but Republicans have held out hope about winning the Governorship through several cycles. Indeed, starting in 1994, Republicans had won four in a row. Now, Democrats are looking to surpass that streak with five. The 2010 election narrowly decided though. So, were the next three, including the 2018 win of Ned Lamont by a margin of 49-46 in what should have been a strong year for Democrats. By this point, many in the Nutmeg State had grown weary of high taxes under Democrats.The state reverted more to national form in 2022 though with Lamont winning reelection by 13 points.

 

Now, after having caused months of speculation as to his intentions, Governor Lamont is seeking a third term in Hartford. In the short-term, his biggest issue may be the primary that is being held next Tuesday. A very wealthy former telecommunications executive, Lamont first achieved political fame via a primary challenge of his own. In 2006, backed by his party's left, he challenged incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, who not long ago had been his party's Vice Presidential nominee. That campaign focused mostly on the Iraq War and Lieberman's perceived closeness with the Bush Administration. Lamont would go on to win that primary and looked like he was about to become a Senator. However, state law allowed Lieberman to run as an Independent in the general election and the more centrist Senator saved his job that way.

 

In 2010, Lamont lost a Gubernatorial primary to a more working class candidate who would go on to serve two terms as Governor, but he tried again in 2018 and won the first of terms. Now, as Lamont is seeking a third term, he is being challenged to his left.by State Representative Josh Elliott. In a May state party convention, the Governor's political clout allowed him to easily win the party endorsement, but support for Elliott was strong enough to get him on the primary ballot. In this day and age, a lot of voters, in both parties, may not like the idea of someone running for a third-term as Governor. It is very rare for a sitting Connecticut Governor to face a primary challenge, but few expect Elliott to be an actual threat to win the nomination. If it were to happen on Tuesday, there would be even more stories about the success of insurgent progressives, which Lamont used to be considered, against the party establishment, which he is now part of.

 

Republicans are not facing a primary on Tuesday, having already settled their intra-party business. Erin Stewart, the former Mayor of New Britain and considered a rising political star, dropped out of the race just before the state convention over allegations she had used a city credit card for her own personal use. By this time, another female Republican candidate, seen with crossover support potential, had already dropped out to run instead for Comptroller. Staying in the race and losing at the convention though was longtime activist Betsy McCaughey. She had a pretty interesting political history. In 1994 she was part of a huge upset when she was elected Lt. Governor of New York, along with George Pataki. Two had a major falling out though in office (which seems to happen all the time in New York between a male and a female holding those offices) and tried to run against Pataki as a Democrat in 1998, but was seen as a gadfly and lost the primary. Eventually McCaughey (who was married for a time to future Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, himself a former Democrat) found her way to MAGA and neighboring Connecticut. 

 

The convention opted, probably wisely, to choose State Senator Ryan Fazio, whom if elected would become the nation's first Governor to have been born in 1990. That day is probably coming before too long, but it would a major upset if it happens this year in Connecticut. Fazio is a financial advisor, who holds some moderate positions on social issues, but his Republican label likely has him way behind the eight ball in Connecticut, especially this year.

 

This Tuesday will also formally select the candidates for Lt. Governor who will then join a ticket. Those are not contested. Lamont is running for the third time with sitting Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz who is having to wait, at least a while longer, for a chance to become Governor in her own right. She had been talked about for 20 years seemingly as a future contender for that job or the U.S. Senate but might have missed her best chances. The presumptive Republican nominee brings very little to the table for Fazio. The State Representative, who was competing as the running-mate of Erin Stewart, who had just dropped out, did not do well at the convention, and he did not attempt to go further. That left the nomination to Matt Corey, a bar owner and Navy veteran who has unsuccessfully sought office in Connecticut several times in recent cycles.

 

On August 11, Governor Lamont will probably finish around the high 50s against his primary opponent Elliott. His margin in November against the Republican Fazio should be similar.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

5 D, (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

11 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely)