25 Days Until Election Day
Texas U.S. Senate
Status: Republican Open
2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)
Outlook: Tossup (D)
No other single race on Election Night will be more closely anticipated than the Senate battle in Texas. If Democrats fall short, they will be incredibly disappointed and likely wondering if a chance to win in the Lone Star State will ever be in the cards. If Republicans lose, there will be massive finger-pointing, with most of them deservedly in the direction of the man in the White House. The race seems to be a tossup, because even though the Democrat has a slight lead in most polls, the very idea of a Republican losing anything statewide in Texas is pretty hard to fathom.
The last Democrat to be elected to the Senate from Texas won a reelection in 1988. That was the fourth of Lloyd Bensten, who was still pretty unhappy that election night, because the ticket he was also running on for Vice President was losing in a landslide. The Senate consolation marked a fourth term for Bensten, who is also the last non-incumbent to be elected to the Senate from Texas way back in 1970. It might be worth nothing that in that year, Bentsen had defeated an incumbent Democrat in a primary and then won a competitive general election against a young, energetic, promising Republican politician named George Bush (who would get revenge against Bentsen in that 1988 election.) In 1970 though, Texas was still pretty solidly Democrat. Times have long since changed. As has been noted, Democrats have not one a solitary statewide campaign there since 1994, and nothing seriously contested since 1990. They have thought they have had opportunities in recent cycles, for Governor, and for U.S Senate. In the last Trump midterm election of 2018, an unpopular incumbent Ted Cruz was thought vulnerable but held on against Congressman Beto O'Rourke 51-48. Six years later, Cruz was thought to have another tough race, but Texas stayed red as he won again 53-45.
This year, Democrats definitely and increasingly so think they have a chance to knock off the longtime incumbent Governor, but everyone agrees that the now open Senate seat is a greater opportunity and would definitely bring victory before the Governor race. All of this is occurring though with the full knowledge that four term Republican Senator John Cornyn, would be in good shape to hold this seat again, perhaps garnering around 55 percent, as he has done in three of those victories (he surpassed 60 in one), if he was not denied re-nomination by his party. Instead, Republicans are trying to stand in line behind a very flawed nominee, who they hope will somehow find a way to ride the generational Republican tide in Texas.
There are complex stories to be told as to how we got to where we are in both parties for the 2026 election. Cornyn, who has held statewide office in Texas since a 1990 victory for the Supreme Court was seeking a fifth term at age 74. He had long held ambitions to be his party's Senate Leader, and had been in the number two position for a time, but in the current political era, he was seen as somehow not combative enough or too willing to work with Democrats on some issues. While Cornyn was an extremely strong fundraiser and pretty much a reliable vote for Donald Trump, he had apparently angered the current President back in 2023 when he suggested the Republican Party should look elsewhere for its Presidential nominee. The primary voters in Texas and elsewhere apparently disagreed, returning Trump to power, and he definitely seemed to remember who was not totally on board with him when times looked tough.
Democrats have continued to think that Texas becoming less white and in some ways less southern, as out of state voters arrived with Democrat voting habits (the same sort of trend that led to Republicans becoming the dominant party in the 1980s) and they thought they would at least have a chance to seriously challenge Cornyn. After his 2018 Senate loss, and subsequent failures as a 2020 Presidential candidate and a 2022 Gubernatorial nominee, the one heralded Beto O'Rourke seemed to be not be a great option, despite his threats to run again. He would not run nor did Congressman Joaquin Castro, a Latino from San Antonio, who has continued to choose to stay in his blue district instead of risking a statewide run.
A few Texas Democrats started to mount campaigns, but the field seemed unsettled. Eventually former Congressman Colin Allred, an African-American former NFL player, got into the race. Allred had just lost to Cruz in the battleground 2024 race but seemed to think that 2026 would provide a better political opportunity. He was definitely right about the cycle, but going up against Cornyn was probably a tougher race than a campaign against Cruz, and Democrats did not seem too optimistic about his chances.
Over the past couple of years, there was a lot of buzz about Austin area State Representative James Talarico, a well spoken former seminarian in his mid 30s. Talarico was considered to have a pretty liberal voting record, but he spoke frequently about his Christian faith and many observers noted that he had demonstrated serious political appeal to those who do not vote for Democrats these days. For instance, as he appeared on the highly rated and MAGA friendly Joe Rogan podcast, the host noted that he thought Talarico should run for President, because he was a "good person." Many wanted the State Representative to run for Governor or Senate. Had he chosen to do the former, he probably would have become the nominee without too much of a battle, but Talarico seemed to either think he would rather be a Senator or that the political path would be easier in that race, and he launched a bid, and immediately began raising a lot of money. This was all in spite of the fact that Allred, the most recent nominee was running, and was definitely not pleased at this opposition. There was a brouhaha over some alleged leaked audio in which Talarico was alleged to say that Allred was an "uninspiring black man" (in contrast to someone else who had entered the field) and the former Congressman angrily made a video calling out Talarico, who for his part denied saying anything racial and insisted that he was merely talking about Allred's unsuccessful 2024 campaign. A lot of Democrats were quite upset at Allred for going so public about an unverified private conversation he was not a witness to and how damaging that sort of infighting, especially on racial matters, could wind up being.
Eventually, Allred decided to leave what had become a race for the nomination between three major contenders and threw his support to the person challenging Talarico. Allred has since run for Congress and defeated the incumbent Democrat woman who had chosen to replace him by the voters two years earlier, and is now likely headed back to the House side of Capitol Hill. All of this is happening as Texas Republicans, at the behest of Trump, and in a fight in which Talarico gained notice in opposing (and joining legislative colleagues in tactics such as fleeing the state as a delaying tactic) redistricted the state well before the next census, in an attempt to gain more Republican U.S.House seats. That ultimate outcome of that will be seen in less than a month, but the new lines did have the effect of pushing Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett out of her Dallas House district and into a Senate race. Allred dropped out in her favor and many expected that Crockett, who was an even bigger political celebrity, would wind up surpassing Talarico for the Senate nomination. Other early candidates had also dropped out at this point. Republicans were particularly pleased about this turn of events, assuming, quite correctly, that the African-American Crockett would be weaker in a general election, against whomever Republicans would wind up nominating, than Talarico.
Since arriving in 2023, Crockett had gained a name for herself as a somewhat glamorous and quite acerbic figure on Capitol Hill who went viral on many occasions for verbal spats with colleagues and attacks on the Trump Administration. Democrats across the country came to consider her a "rock star" but there were definitely concerns about her general election viability. Crockett seemed to perhaps take her Senate primary for granted, or maybe was just content to use it as a springboard for other opportunities. She would up not raising much money and not doing a lot of traditional campaigning in the state. Talarico, whom in the private remarks about Allred, seemed to be offering political praise for Crockett, was in a difficult position. A white male, who is considered quite "woke" was not really feeling like he was in a position to be too critical of his black female opponent. Crockett did not really go negative either, but many of her allies criticized Talarico for even staying in the race and seemingly denying a political opportunity to a black woman. Kamala Harris had wound up endorsing Crockett as did several prominent African-Americans from politics and the entertainment world. Talarico seemed to have a solid base with white Democrats though and also was preferred by the very sizable Latino base for the party in the state. With a financial advantage, and to the surprise of some, Talarico won an early March primary 52-46 over Crockett and importantly avoided the need for a May runoff. The Congresswoman conceded her loss and expressed support for all the Democrats running in the general election, but then, and since, she has been muted in support of Talarico and has not offered to campaign for him. She and some allies have seemed to suggest that African-Americans are not solidly behind him, and she has lately seemed to be focused on other races in the state. If Talarico is to win in November, he will definitely need black Democrats to turn out in a big way. That may very well happen, but if not, a lot anger will be directed at Crockett for seeming to be a sore loser and not a team player. Some in the party have already begun calling her names. Crockett will likely have some major gigs on cable television once her term ends next year.
At the same time, Republicans were having their own primary saga and for them, it was quite uglier, more personal, and would last a good deal longer. Senator Cornyn was being challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who succeeded Greg Abbott in that post, when Abbott was elected Governor. Before Abbott, the AG job had been Cornyn's. A statewide office holder challenging a Senator in a Republican primary was definitely a big deal, especially if it made the likelihood of a runoff that much more possible. With a handful of little known candidates also in the field, it was joined later on by Congressman Wesley Hunt, who after two terms in the House, maybe wanted a way out and decided to take a chance on a Senate primary free for all. An Army veteran, and one of the few black Republicans in Congress, Hunt would gain some notice as an alternative to those in the party who soured on the fighting between Cornyn and Paxton, but he consistently ran a distant third in polls.
The main storyline though was about Paxton and the possibility, and even fear that many Republicans in Texas and in Washington D.C. had about what could happen to the seat if he became the nominee. Some speculated that he would risk losing it, even to the polarizing Crockett. This was definitely the major theme that Cornyn would stress, but there was no doubting that a lot of conservatives in the state were tired of the incumbent and thought the party could do better. This helped solidify the position of the extremely un-charismatic Paxton, even though he was not known to be good at raising money, a major difference between him and Cornyn.
To put it lightly, Paxton had a ton of political and personal baggage and all of it would find its ways into Cornyn's ad and those of the National Republican Senatorial Committee who went all in to defend their incumbent, partially out of fear of losing in November under Paxton. Democrats clearly reveled these spots, paid for by Republican money, and the damage they could do.
Then a State Senator, Paxton easily won the office of Attorney General in 2014, which was pretty par for the course as a Republican nominee in Texas. Seeking a second term four years later, Paxton only won 51 percent. In 2022, he was challenged by a few opponents in the primary and was taken to a runoff. He did manage to win that one easily with the endorsement of Donald Trump, and perhaps because his opponent in that happened to be the son of Jeb Bush, then Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Texas Republicans had moved on from the Bushes, even as George P. tried to convince people that he was pro-Trump too. The 2022 general election went to Paxton 53-47, underperforming the rest of the ticket.
Clearly something had happened between Paxton and Texas voters. There is quite a litany that I will not be able to completely recite. Even before becoming Attorney General, he had been indicted on security fraud charges. The legal battle spanned a decade and paid a fine and performed community service to get the charges dropped. He was indicted on other matters as well but a judge dropped the charges. As Attorney General, some of his top aides reported him to the FBI in regards to bribery and abuse of office to enrich himself. He later had to pay these former employees millions of dollars for retaliating against him. As mentioned, Paxton never lost a primary or a general election in spite of all this, but the Republican controlled Texas House voted overwhelmingly to impeach him in 2023. The trial went to the Texas State Senate, also obviously controlled by Republicans, and they voted to acquit him. A Republican member of that State Senate, but barred from voting in his trial was Paxton's wife Angela. Shortly after his impeachment acquittal, the political couple separated and she has since filed for divorce on "biblical grounds" to end their nearly 40 year marriage. The Attorney General, who is the favorite of many religious conservatives, has admitted to adultery and is openly involved with a woman currently, even as he remains legally married to the State Senator. In this campaign, she has cut an ad telling Texans they should vote for the Republican ticket, but not explicitly mentioning her estranged husband's name.
Spoiler alert. That ticket includes Ken Paxton. For months, both campaigns had been trying to get Donald Trump's endorsement. It was a big deal in Texas. Wesley Hunt portrayed himself as a MAGA fighter too. Paxton was definitely a longtime ally of Trump and defended himself by saying that he was just like Trump in being impeached and indicted (and presumably having a marriage end due to infidelity) and a lot of voters liked the comparison. Cornyn pointed out that he almost always voted the way Trump wanted him to and rhetorically leaned much more into the kind of red meat that Trump fans like to hear. He did something like proposing to name a federal highway after Trump. Senators from John Thune on down were said to have been begging Trump to endorse Cornyn and ensure his nomination over Paxton. A lot Texas Republicans and business leaders were also doing the same. Trump played it coy saying that he liked both of the candidates. He seemed to tease that he would soon be endorsing someone, but that endorsement did not come, to the dismay of some. The polls showed that Cornyn was trailing Paxton in the polls and was in serious political trouble. As the early March primary approached, concern started to sneak in and many started to suddenly realize the importance of backing Cornyn. Hunt was going to be a major spoiler in the entire thing also. I had been wondering throughout this time if the Republican establishment would ultimately conclude that Cornyn was a lost cause in the primary and it would be best to get him aside early, but clearly, they still wanted no part of Paxton.
When the vote took place, some took solace in the fact that Cornyn took first place, which looked doubtful at some point, but it was only by a narrow 42-41 margin over Paxton. Hunt took 14 percent and it looked like his right-leaning voters were probably more likely to for the challenger in the runoff over the incumbent Cornyn. (Hunt would indeed wind up endorsing Paxton.) Once again, Republicans across the country were reaching out to Trump to get him to endorse Cornyn or at the least stay neutral. It was already bad enough that the fight would continue all the way to a late May runoff in which the attack ads would keep flowing, especially the pretty brutal ones being deployed against Paxton. In theory, if Paxton were to be the nominee, it would have been better for that to have been dealt with in the actual primary instead of a runoff. Had Trump made a primary endorsement, that candidate would have likely gotten over 50 percent and the runoff would be moot and it would be on to the general election against Talarico, who was clearly a tougher political foe than Crockett would have been.
Things were definitely happening behind the scenes during the extended Republican runoff campaign. Trump has been majorly pissed at Thune and Senate Republicans for some time, and he extended his anger to longtime Thune ally Cornyn, specifically over the SAVE Act, which did not have the votes to pass, and which Trump had been trying to get Thune to "nuke the filibuster" to get through the Senate. Cornyn in desperation mode seemed to indicate he was open to it but Thune wisely resisted (that whole topic is a much longer discussion.) Paxton then surprised many by saying he might be willing to exit the race and cede the runoff if Senate Republicans would agree to do get rid of the filibuster so Trump could get his voter ID (and other stuff) bill passed. Thune still resisted, but it looked like Trump was indeed about to endorse Cornyn and political prediction markets shot up in Cornyn's favor in regards to the nomination and general election. On the day that it looked like Trump was about to post his endorsement of Cornyn, effectively ending the nomination battle, Trump posted his endorsement of.... Paxton.
Cornyn probably should have thrown in the towel there, but he soldiered on and insisted that Paxton would be putting the seat at risk. It seems likely that Trump had been letting people know he was going to endorse Cornyn, and some of his major MAGA allies got in his ear and expressed opposition causing him to change his mind. Many in the party thought that perhaps he would just continue to stay neutral, and were gobsmacked when he endorsed Paxton. They really should not have been. While Trump might have been able to save Cornyn, had he stayed silent, Paxton was clearly on the way to winning the runoff anyway. Thus, Trump chimed in so he could claim credit. He posted that while he liked Cornyn personally, he had not been loyal enough to him, as Paxton had been. The runoff was decisive, Paxton cruised to 64 percent of the vote, even as many Republicans stayed home, realizing it was all but over. This was a a similar margin to his 2022 Attorney General primary runoff win. Cornyn conceded and stated that he wanted Republicans to continue to control the Senate but clearly has no use for Paxton. In some ways, the situation is similar to how Crockett has been snubbing Talarico, but in a much greater form. With Cornyn's lengthy Senate career coming to an end, he has recently been more open in criticizing Trump and others in his party, including a very racist recent post by the Republican nominee for another statewide office. The Senator continues to point out the political weaknesses of Paxton, drawing the ire of many in MAGA who are more convinced than ever he is a RINO and if Paxton loses, many on that side will place a lot of blame at the feet of Cornyn. In many cases, these are the same voters who said they would have refused to vote for Cornyn had he been the nominee against Talarico.
So, this has been a lot of words to even get to the general election discussion. It seems clear though, that while Cornyn would have been somewhat weakened, and Talarico having a somewhat favorable political environment, the main question would be if Cornyn could be held to a single digit win or not. It would not be if a Democrat would actually beat a Republican. Right now, most polls are showing that Talarico is ahead of Paxton, and that it might be continuing to go in the wrong direction away from the Republican. It is even being said that Paxton is a drain on the entire Republican ticket right now, including Governor Abbott.
People are still claiming that Paxton is a lazy campaigner who really is not made for a high profile race like this but Republican campaign apparatuses in general have a ton of money that they are putting to use on the Texas airways. Needless to say, they would not have had to do that for Cornyn. Every dollar being pumped into Texas is money that Republicans are not putting into other states they need to win to keep control of the Senate. It is of course ironic because Republicans had spent a lot of money for months trying to stop Ken Paxton, but those ads have been scrubbed from the party's websites, and they are now trying to save him in what is known as a very Republican state.
One thing is clear, James Talarico triggers the you know what out of people on the right. I am conservative myself, even as a former Republican, and there is no doubt the Democrat is well to my left. I would dislike much of his voting record. If I lived in Texas though, I imagine I would be primed to actually vote for him, That is how deplorable I find Paxton (as I do Democrat candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and formerly Graham Platner) in Maine. Republicans from Trump on down are pushing a major narrative about Talarico being "Talafreako" a "fruitcake" Low T" or a dangerous radical. Without a doubt, during his young political career, the Democrat has said some things that are pretty cringe in regards to political correctness of "wokeness", but those opposing him have definitely exaggerated much, taken things out of context, or just invented them. They have insisted falsely that Talarico is a "vegan" but he does eat meat, which is a big deal in Texas, despite having said something weird about a "meatless campaign" when he was running for the legislature a few years back, and which he has admitted he "missed the mark" on. Issues regarding transgender children are also being used incessantly as a way to try to hurt the Democrat. They keep pushing that he said there are six or seven genders and that G-d was transgender. All of the sort of theological and philsophical musing that Talarico once did was pretty bad politically in retrospect but it was hardly as sinister as some claim. Paxton and his allies have been trying to use Talarico's Christianity, a major selling point to some against him, claiming that he has said he was really anti-Christian. Personally, as a Jewish-American, i might be curious how Talarico reconciles his Christianity with total abortion on demand but also how Paxton can claim to be a champion of religion and families based on what he has done to his own family with his Biblical divorce pending.
Early on, the main tactic was clearly to infer that the unmarried Talarico is gay or a wimp. Trump says he looks like Alfred E. Neuman from Mad Magazine but I really do not see that. Trump though is also apparently no fan of Paxton's looks, seeming to revel in pointing out that Paxton may be struggling in the polls because people do not like the way he looks or the way he dresses. Trump brings this up a whole lot, but that is probably not the actual reason Paxton is struggling. As for Talarico, who has never been a vegan, and who is most likely not gay, there was also a story that came out that he has a long-time quite attractive girlfriend who used to work as his chief of staff in Austin. In normal campaigns, that sort of thing itself could be politically problematic, which is maybe why the campaign did not want to talk about her, but the dude probably cannot both be gay and a womanizer... even if it is 2026.
The bottom line is that they are trying to throw everything at the wall they can to try to hurt Talarico, even as the polls are showing that all of that and all the attack ads are seemingly not moving the needle much. Most recently, there has been a big to do about the fact that Talarico claimed a couple of weeks ago that he came down with the flu and then stopped doing public events for close to two weeks. That sounds like a really bad case of the flu. Democrats probably should be concerned about their nominee (who has also spent a lot of time raising money and going on shows in New York and Los Angeles) being away from the trail, but Republicans have been acting quite offended that Talarico was not out there campaigning. It is hard to believe they think they can expect to be taken seriously. Today, the internet exploded with people on the right claiming they had good "sources" who knew that Talarico had a "mental breakdown" and the flu is just a cover story. They insist he is undergoing psychiatric treatment out of state.. or that he might be possibly actually be dead. This afternoon though, Talarico surfaced at a big gathering in Austin shaking hands and looking healthy. The fact that he looked healthy two weeks later has people claiming the bad flu thing must have been a lie.
Trump has been going to Texas a whole lot lately. He held a "midterm convention" there in Dallas not long ago and Paxton was caught on a leaked audio saying that the whole event wound up having the opposite of the intended effect and wound up hurting him and other Texas Republicans politically. If nothing else, Paxton does not seem to want to take any sort of responsibility for his campaign The same leaked talks show that he feels that he is basically powerless in this campaign because of diesel prices and things like that. There is no way that Trump or his people can be happy with Paxton saying these things or the state of his campaign, but they are the ones who are responsible for him being where he is.
At these rallies, as Trump continues to rail against Talarico in very personal terms, he has claimed that he got sick from being forced to eat meat for political reasons, which may not say much about Texas beef. The "mental patient" thing apparently came and went too quickly for Trump to post about, but he could still do it at 3 am I suppose tonight. He did have a post a few days ago insisting that Talarico show himself and "report to a Debate Stage" against Paxton. One problem though, Paxton, who needs a political boost, is the one who has been refusing to debate. Talarico has repeatedly said he would love to debate Paxton and would even have on Fox News with him .Was Trump even aware of that? Probably not. Talarico has some high profile events scheduled for next week, including a CNN Town Hall. For better or worse for his own campaign, he is definitely "out of hiding" and will likely use Trump's own words to try to goad Paxton over his unwillingness to debate. Such an encounter would be fascinating to watch. Paxton really comes across bad on the stump and on television while Talarico is quite a gifted speaker, even if he sometimes seems a bit scripted. The Democrat also seems to lack the political ferocity of a Jon Ossoff for example though, so it would be interesting to see how willing he would be to try to rumble rhetorically face to face with an opponent. He would likely be advised to show as much toughness as possible.
What is going to happen in 25 days? Texas is a state that Democrats have a serious and sustained losing streak in. This race will definitely be close, but close is not going to cut it. There is also sort of belief that the overall political environment for Trump and Republicans is bad and getting worse and that just for one example the kind of Latino voters in South Texas who rallied to Trump, especially in 2024, may now be looking at their economic situation or the fact that ICE is rounding up and deporting all sorts of brown people who would not qualify as the "worst of the worst" and willing to vote Democrat. These particular voters may really like the generational and cultural appeal of Talarico. Republicans insist that Texas is still red and the Democrat is just too far to the left or too "weird" to win statewide. Such a possibility cannot be discounted, I happen to think though that Talarico is a lot more of an appealing person than Beto O'Rourke was. If Talarico loses, I doubt he will follow Beto's lead and drop a bunch of f bombs in his concession speech. Oh the other hand, Republicans across the country would be doing so if Talarico winds up giving a victory speech.
In my twenty years of doing this blog, I have never predicted a Democrat to win statewide in Texas and I have been right of course Now, at least as of today, I am going to do so. This is going to be a bad year for Republicans, with or without Ken Paxton, but all his problems, and weaknesses as a candidate makes it worse for them. Nothing is a given, a Paxton victory here would be far from anything shocking, but I think something major is happening. Again, if nothing else, all the efforts being made here to hold on to a seat because Donald Trump screwed over a Republican incumbent for only being 90 to 95 percent loyal instead of 100 percent, is going to reverberate in Senate races in several other states and perhaps in many Congressional and even statewide contests in the Lone Star State.
You can take this to the bank, if Ken Paxton loses, even as Trump will likely claim it was the result of fraud or cheating, the Truth Social rant he will unleash against Paxton will be epic. The private conversations that Republicans will have about Trump and what he cost them in Texas will be even better. Personally, I hope it happens.
"The Eyes of Texas are upon you..."
Senate races predicted thus far:
15 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
17 R (4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)
Senate total predicted thus far:
49 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
48 R (31 holdover, 4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)
