U.S. House Predictions: Utah-Wyoming

4 Days Until Election Day

Utah

1. Ben McAdams D vs. Riley Owen R (Harris 60%)- Likely D

2. Peter Crosby D vs. Blake Moore R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

3. Kent Udell D vs. Celeste Maloy R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

4. Jonny Larsen D vs. Mike Kennedy R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

 

UT current: 0 D, 4 R

UT predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 198 D, 204 R

 

Predicted:

 

220 D (128 Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

182 R ( 68  Safe, 76 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________

 

Vermont

 

1. Becca Balint D vs. Gerald Malloy R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

 

VT current: 1 D, 0 R

VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 199 D, 204 R

 

 

Predicted:

 

221 D (129 Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

182 R ( 68  Safe, 76 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Virginia

 

1. Shannon Taylor D vs. Rob Wittman R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

2. Elaine Luria D vs. Jen Kiggans R (Trump 50%) - Leans D

3. Bobby Scott D vs. Edwin Rivera R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

4. Jennifer McClellan D vs. Robert Murray R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

5. Tom Perriello D vs. John McGuire R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

6. Beth Macy D vs. Ben Cline R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

7. Eugene Vindman D vs. Doug Ollivant R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

8. Don Beyer D vs. Tony Sabio R (Harris 74%)- Safe D

9. Joy Powers D vs. Morgan Griffith R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

10. Suhas Subramanyam D vs. Dave Beckwith R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

11. James Walkinshaw D vs. Arthur Perves R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

VA current: 6 D, 5 R

VA predicted: 8 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 205 D, 209 R

 

Predicted:

 

229 D (133 Safe, 55 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

185 R ( 69  Safe, 77 Likely, 31 Leans,   8 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________

Washington

 

1. Suzan DelBene D vs. Mary Silva R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

2. Rick Larsen D vs. Edwin Feller R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

3. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D vs. John Braun R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

4. John Duresky D vs. Amanda McKinney R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

5. Carmela Conroy D vs. Michael Baumgartner R (Trump 54%)- Leans R

6. Emily Randall D vs. Teresa Fox R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

7. Pramila Jayapal D vs. Nirav Sheth R (Harris 86%)- Safe D

8. Kim Schrier D vs. Spencer Meline R (Harris 51%)- Likely D 

9. Adam Smith D vs. Doug Basler R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

10. Marilyn Strickland D vs. Chris Chung R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

WA current: 8 D, 2 R

WA predicted: 8 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 213 D, 211 R

 

Predicted:

 

237 D (139 Safe, 56 Likely, 27 Leans, 15 Tossup)

187 R ( 69  Safe, 78 Likely, 32 Leans,   8 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________

West Virginia

 

1. Vince George D vs. Carol Miller R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

2. Ace Parsi D vs. Riley Moore R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

 

WV current: 0 D, 2 R

WV predicted: 0 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 213 D, 213 R

 

Predicted:

 

237 D (139 Safe, 56 Likely, 27 Leans, 15 Tossup)

189 R ( 71  Safe, 78 Likely, 32 Leans,   8 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________

 

Wisconsin

 

1. Mitchell Berman D vs. Bryan Steil R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (R)

2. Mark Pocan D (Harris 69%)- Safe D

3. Rebecca Cooke D vs. Derrick Van Orden R (Trump 53%)- Leans D

4. Gwen Moore D vs. Tim Rogers R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

5. Andy Beck D vs. Scott Fitzgerald R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

6. Brad Smith D vs. Glenn Grothman R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

7. Fred Clark D vs. Michael Alfonso R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

8. Rick Crosson D vs. Tony Wied R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

WI current: 2 D, 6 R

WI predicted: 3 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 215 D, 219 R

 

 

Predicted:

 

240 D (141 Safe, 56 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

194 R ( 71  Safe, 79 Likely, 35 Leans,  9  Tossup)

__________________________________________________________

Wyoming 

 

1. Lisa Kinney D vs. Chuck Gray R (Trump 72%)- Likely R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R

WY predicted: 0 D , 1 R

 

Current total: 215 D, 220 R 

 

Predicted:

 

240 D (141 Safe, 56 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

195 R ( 71  Safe, 80 Likely, 35 Leans,  9  Tossup)

 

 DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF 25 SEATS

 

 

U.S. House Predictions: Texas

5 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Yolanda Prince D vs. Nathaniel Moran R (Trump 74%)- Safe R

2. Shaun Finnie D vs. Steve Toth R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

3. Evan Hunt D vs. Keith Self R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

4. Jason Pearce D vs. Pat Fallon R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

5. Chelsey Hockett D vs. Lance Gooden R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

6. Danny Minton D vs. Jake Ellzey R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

7. Lizzie Fletcher D vs. Alexander Hale R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

8. Laura Jones D vs Jessica Steinmann R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

9. Letty Gutierrez D vs. Alex Mealer R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

10. Caitlin Rourk D vs. Chris Gober R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

11. Claire Reynolds D vs. August Pfluger R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

12. Heidi Rodriguez Prillman D vs. Craig Goldman R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

13. Mark Nair D vs. Ronny Jackson R (Trump 73%)- Likely R

14. Thurman Bartie D vs. Randy Weber R (Trump 62%)- Likely R

15. Bobby Pulido D vs. Monica De La Cruz R (Trump 59%)- Leans D

16. Veronica Escobar D vs. Adam Bauman R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

17. Casey Shepard D vs. Pete Sessions R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

18. Christian Menefee D vs. Ronald Dwayne Whitfield R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

19. Kyle Rable D vs. Tom Sell R (Trump 75%)- Safe R

20. Joaquin Castro D vs. Edgardo Baez R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

21. Kristen Hook D vs. Mark Teixeira R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

22. Marquette Greene-Scott D vs. Trever Nehls R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

23. Katy Padilla Stout D vs. Brandon Herrera R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (R)

24. Kevin Burge D vs. Beth Van Duyne R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

25. Dione Sims D vs. Roger Williams R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

26. Steven Shook D vs. Brandon Gill R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

27. Tanya Lloyd D vs. Michel Cloud R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

28. Henry Cuellar D vs. Tano Tijerina R (Trump 55%)- Likely D

29. Sylvia Garcia D vs. Martha Fierro R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

30. Frederick Haynes D vs. Everett Jackson R (Harris 73%)- Safe D

31. Justin Early D vs. John Carter R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

32. Dan Barrios D vs. Jace Yarborough R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

33. Colin Allred D vs. Patrick Gillespie R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

34. Vicente Gonzalez D vs. Eric Flores R (Trump 55%)- Leans D

35. Johnny Garcia D vs. Carlos De La Cruz R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

36. Rhonda Hart D vs. Brian Babin R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

37. Greg Casar D vs. Lauren Pena R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

38. Melissa McDonough D vs. Jon Bonck R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

TX current: 13 D, 25 R

TX predicted: 12 D, 26 R

 

Current total: 198 D, 200 R

 

Predicted:

 

219 D (128 Safe, 52 Likely, 25 Leans, 14 Tossup)

179 R ( 67  Safe, 74 Likely, 30 Leans,   8 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Pennsylvania- Tennessee

6 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania

 

1. Bob Harvie D vs. Brian Fitzpatrick R (Harris 50%)- Tossup (D)

2. Brendan Boyle D vs. Jessica Arriaga R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

3. Chris Rabb D vs. Dennis Mahoney I (Harris 88%)- Safe D

4. Madeleine Dean D vs. Auora Stuski R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

5. Mary Gay Scanlon D vs. Nick Manganaro R (Harris 64%)- Safe D

6. Chrissy Houlahan D vs. Marty Young R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

7. Bob Brooks D vs. Ryan Mackenize R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

8. Paige Cognetti D vs. Rob Bresnahan R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

9. Rachel Wallace D vs. Dan Meuser R (Trump 69%)- Likely R

10. Janelle Stelson D vs. Scott Perry R (Trump 52%)- Leans D

11. Nancy Mannion D vs. Lloyd Smucker R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

12. Summer Lee D vs. James Hayes R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

13. Beth Farnham D vs. John Joyce R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

14. Alan Bradstock D vs. Guy Reschenthaler R (Trump 66%)- Likely R

15. Ray Bliger D vs. Glenn Thompson R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

16. Justin Wagner D vs. Mike Kelly R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

17. Chris Deluzio D vs. Tony Guy R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

PA current: 7 D, 10 R

PA predicted: 11 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 181 D, 160 R

 

Predicted:

 

204 D (118 Safe, 50 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

137 R ( 55  Safe, 51 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

 

Rhode Island

 

1. Gabe Amo D vs. Kellie Keenan R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

2. Seth Magaziner D vs. Vic Mellor R (Harris 52%)= Likely D

RI current: 2 D, 0 R

RI predicted: 2 D , 0 R

 

Current total: 183 D, 160 R

 

Predicted:

 

206 D (119 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

137 R ( 55  Safe, 51 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

 

South Carolina

 

1. Nancy Lacore D vs. Jenny Honeycutt R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

2. Zyon Khalifa D vs. Joe Wilson R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

3. Eunice Lehmacher D vs. Sheri Biggs R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

4. Courtney McClain D vs. William Timmons R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

5. Mallory Dittmer D vs. Wes Climer R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

6. Jim Clyburn D vs. John Peterson R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

7. John Vincent D vs. Russell Fry R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

SC current: 1 D, 6 R

SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 184 D, 166 R

 

Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

143 R ( 58  Safe, 53 Likely, 25 Leans,   7 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________ 

 

South Dakota

 

1. Nikki Gronil D vs. Marty Jackley R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

SD current: 0 D, 1 R

SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 184 D, 167 R

 

Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

144 R ( 58  Safe, 54 Likely, 25 Leans,   7 Tossup)

___________________________________________________

 

Tennessee

 

1. Kristi Burke D vs. Diana Harshbarger R (Trump 78%)- Safe R

2. Michaela Barnett D vs. Tim Burchett R (Trump 66%)- Likely R

3. Anna Golladay D vs. Chuck Fleischmann R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

4. Victoria Broderick D vs. Scott DesJarlais R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

5. Chaz Molder D vs. Charlie Hatcher R (Trump 61%)- Leans R

6. Mike Croley D vs. Johnny Garrett R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

7. Darden Copeland D vs. Matt Van Epps R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

8. Heidi Kuhn D vs. David Kustoff R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

9. Justin Pearson D vs. Brent Taylor R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

 

TN current: 1 D, 8 R

TN predicted: 0 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 185 D, 175 R

 

 Predicted:

 

207 D (120 Safe, 51 Likely, 23 Leans, 13 Tossup)

153 R ( 60  Safe, 59 Likely, 27 Leans,   7 Tossup)

 

NFL Week 7 Results and Week 8 Games

7 Days Until Election Day

Unlike my picks for the 2026 election, there are not predictions

Week 7

 

1.  Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2) W 1

 

 

 

2.   Steelers (4-2) vs Saints (2-4) in Saint-Denis, France W 2

3.   49ers (6-0) at Falcons (2-4) W 3

4.   Bengals (3-2) at Ravens (4-2) W 4

5.   Buccaneers (1-5) at Panthers (3-2) W 5

6.   Giants (3-2-1) at Texans (2-4) L 1

7.   Colts (2-4) at Vikings (5-0) L 2

8.   Dolphins (0-5) at Jets (2-4) W 6

9.   Browns (4-2) at Titans (1-5) L 3

10. Broncos (4-2) at Cardinals (2-4) W 7

11.  Packers (4-2) at Lions (3-2) W 8

12.  Rams (2-4) at Raiders (3-3) L 4

13.  Chiefs (5-0) at Seahawks (3-3) L 5

 

14.  Cowboys (2-4) at Eagles (2-4) W 9

 

Week 7 Results: 9-5 (64%)

Overall Results: 55-51 (52%)

___________________________________________________________ 

 

Week 8

 

1. Panthers (3-3) at Packers (4-3)

 

 

 

2.  Ravens (4-3) at Bills (5-1)

3.  Titans (1-5) at Bengals (4-2)

4.  Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)

5.  Vikings (6-0) at Lions (4-2)

6.  Colts (2-5) at Jaguars (4-2)

7.  Raiders (3-4) at Jets (2-5)

8.  Browns (5-2) at Steelers (5-2)

9.  Falcons (3-4) at Buccaneers (2-5)

10.  Chargers (0-6) at Rams (3-4)

11.  Chiefs (5-1) at Broncos (5-2)

12.  Patriots (4-3) at Dolphins (1-5)

13.  Eagles (2-5) at Commanders (1-4-1)

 

14.  Bears (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)

U.S. House Predictions: New York- Oregon

8 Days Until Election Day

New York

1. Chris Gallant D vs. Nick LaLota R (Trump 54%)- Leans R 

2. Pat Halpin D vs. Andrew Garbarino R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

3. Tom Suozzi D vs. Mike LiPetri R (Trump 51%)- Likely D

4. Laura Gillen D vs. Jeanine Driscoll R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

5. Gregory Meeks D vs. George Marsh R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

6. Grace Meng D vs. Joseph Chou R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Claire Valdez D vs. Melvin Rivera R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

8. Hakeem Jeffries D vs. Lewis Mizrahi R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

9. Yvette Clark D vs. Joel Azumah R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

10. Brad Lander D vs. Jennifer Moore R  (Harris 79%)- Safe D

11. Mike DeCillis D vs. Nicole Malliotakis R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

12. Micah Lasher D vs. Caroline Shinkle R (Harris 81%)- Safe D

13. Darializa Avila Chevalier D vs. Jomo Williams R (Harris 79%)- Safe D

14. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D vs. Diamant Hysenaj R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

15. Andre Easton I vs. Ritchie Torres D vs. Stylo Sapaskis R (Harris 74%)- Safe D

16. George Latimer D vs. Joe Cinquemani R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

17. Cait Conley D vs. Mike Lawler R (Harris 50%)- Leans D

18. Pat Ryan D vs. Jackie Auringer R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

19. Josh Riley D vs. Peter Oberacker R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

20. Paul Tonko D vs. Ralph Ambrosio R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

21. Blake Gendebien D vs. Anthony Constantino R (Trump 60%)- Tossup (R)

22. John Mannion D vs. Kailee Buller R  (Harris 54%)- Likely D

23. Aaron Gies D vs. Nick Langworthy R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

24. Alissa Ellman D vs. Claudia Tenney R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

25. Joe Morelle D vs. Virginia McIntyre R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

26. Tim Kennedy D vs. Dennis Hannon R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

NY current: 19 D, 7 R

NY predicted: 20 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 160 D, 123 R

 

Predicted:

 

177 D (107 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 10 Tossup)

106 R ( 43 Safe,  37 Likely, 20 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________ 

 

North Carolina

 

1. Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckhout R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

2. Deborah Ross D vs. Gene Douglass R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

3. Raymond Smith D vs. Greg Murphy R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Max Ganorkar R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

5. Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

6. Cyril Jefferson D vs. Addison McDowell R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

7. Kimberly Hardy D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

8. Colby Watson D vs. Mark Harris R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

9. Richard Ojeda D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

10. Ashley Bell D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

11. Jamie Ager D vs. Jennifer Balkcom R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

12. Alma Adams D vs. Jack Codiga R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

13. Paul Barringer D vs. Brad Knott R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

14. LaKesha Womack D vs. Tim Moore R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

 

NC current: 4 D, 10 R

NC predicted:  5 D, 9 R

Current total: 164 D, 133 R

 

Predicted:

 

182 D (110 Safe, 43 Likely, 18 Leans, 11 Tossup)

115 R ( 45 Safe,  42 Likely, 22 Leans,   6 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

 

North Dakota

1. Trygve Hammer vs. Julie Fedorchak R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

 

ND current: 0 D, 1 R

ND predicted;  0 D, 1 R

Current total: 164 D, 134 R

 

Predicted:

 

182 D (110 Safe, 43 Likely, 18 Leans, 11 Tossup)

116 R ( 46  Safe, 42 Likely, 22 Leans,   6 Tossup)

 _________________________________________________________________

 

Ohio

 

1. Greg Landsman D vs. Eric Conroy R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

2. Jen Mazzuckelli D vs. Dave Taylor R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

3. Joyce Beatty D vs. Cleophus Dulaney R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

4. Josh Kolasinski D  vs, Tracey Tackett I vs. Jim Jordan R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

5. Brian Shaver D vs. Bob Latta R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

6. Elizabeth Kirtley D vs. Michael Rulli R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

7. Brian Poindexter D vs. Max Miller R (Trump 55%)- Leans D

8. Vanessa Enoch D vs. Warren Davidson R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

9. Marcy Kaptur D vs. Derek Merrin R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

10. Kristina Knickerbocker D vs. Mike Turner R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

11. Shontel Brown D vs. Mike Kirchner R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

12. Jerrad Christian D vs. Troy Balderson R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

13. Emilia Sykes D vs. Carey Coleman R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

14. Maria Jukic D vs. Dave Joyce R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

15. Don Leonard D vs. Mike Carey R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

 

OH current: 5 D, 10 R

OH predicted: 6 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 169 D, 144 R 

Predicted:

 

188 D (112 Safe, 44 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

125 R ( 50  Safe, 45 Likely, 24 Leans,   6 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________

 

Oklahoma

 

1. John Croisant D vs. Mark Tedford R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

2. Brandon Wade D vs. Josh Brecheen R (Trump 77%)- Safe R

3. Suzie Byrd D vs. Frank Lucas R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

4. Mitchell Jacob D vs. Tom Cole R (Trump 66%)- Safe R

5. Jena Nelson D vs. Stephanie Bice R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

 

OK current: 0 D, 5 R

OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 169 D, 149 R

 

Predicted:

 

188 D (112 Safe, 44 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

130 R ( 53  Safe, 46 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________

Oregon

 

1. Suzanne Bonamici D vs. Barbara Kahl R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

2. Chris Beck D vs. Cliff Bentz R (Trump 62%)- Likely R

3. Maxine Dexter D vs. Loran Ayles R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

4. Val Hoyle D vs. Monique DeSpain R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

5. Janelle Bynum D vs. Patti Adair R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

6. Andrea Salinas D vs. David Russ R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

OR current: 5 D, 1 R

OR predicted: 5 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 174 D, 150 R

 

Predicted:

 

193 D (114 Safe, 47 Likely, 20 Leans, 12 Tossup)

131 R ( 53  Safe, 47 Likely, 25 Leans,   6 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Nebraska- New Mexico

9 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska

 

1. Chris Backemeyer D vs. Mike Flood R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

2. Denise Powell D vs. Brinker Harding R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

3. Becky Stille D vs.  Adrian Smith R (Trump 76%)- Safe R

NE current: 0 D, 3 R

NE predicted: 1 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 112 R

 

Predicted:

 

138 D (89 Safe, 28 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans, 5 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Nevada

 

1. Dina Titus D vs. Carrie Buck R (Harris 50%) - Leans D

2. Teresa Benitez-Thompson D vs. David Flippo R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (D)

3. Susie Lee D vs. Marty O'Donnell R (Trump 50%)- Likely D

4. Steven Horsford D vs. Cody Whipple R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

NV current: 3 D, 1 R

NV predicted: 4 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 127 D, 113 R

 

Predicted:

 

142 D (89 Safe, 30 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans,  5 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________ 

 

New Hampshire

 

1. Stefany Shaheen D vs. Anthony DiLorenzo R (Harris 51%)- Leans D

2. Maggie Goodlander D vs. Lily Tang Williams R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

NH current: 2 D, 0 R

NH predicted: 2 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 129 D, 113 R 

 

Predicted:

 

144 D (89 Safe, 31 Likely, 14 Leans, 10 Tossup)

  98 R (42 Safe, 33 Likely, 18 Leans,   5 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________

 

 New Jersey

 

1. Donald Norcross D vs. Damon Galdo R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

2. Zack Mullock D vs. Jeff Van Drew R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

3. Herb Conaway D vs. Michael McGuire R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Rachel Peace D vs. Chris Smith R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. Josh Gottheimer D vs. Sean Kirrane R (Harris 50%)- Likely D

6. Frank Pallone D vs. Hillary Herzig R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Rebecca Bennett D vs. Tom Kean R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

8. Rob Menendez D vs Ari Eliopoulos I (Harris 61%)- Safe D

9. Nellie Pou D vs. Rosie Pino R (Trump 49%)- Likely D

10. LaMonica McIver D vs. Carmen Bucco R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

11. Analilia Mejia D vs. Joe Hathaway R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

12. Adam Hamaway D vs. Gregg Mele R (Harris 61%)- Likely D

NJ current: 9 D, 3 R

NJ predicted: 10 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 138 D, 116 R

 

Predicted:

 

154 D (93 Safe, 36 Likely, 15 Leans, 10 Tossup)

100 R (43 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans,   5 Tossup)

__________________________________________________________________________

 

New Mexico

 

1. Melanie Stansbury D vs. Didi Okpareke R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

2. Gabe Vasquez D vs. Greg Cunningham R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

3. Teresa Leger Fernandez D vs. Martin Zamora R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

NM current: 3 D, 0 R

NM predicted: 3 D, 0 R

Current total: 141 D, 116 R

 

Predicted:

 

157 D (93 Safe, 38 Likely, 16 Leans, 10 Tossup)

100 R (43 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans,   5 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________

 

U.S. House Predictions: Maine- Montana

10 Days Until Election Day

Maine

 

1. Chellie Pingree D vs. Ron Russell R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

2. Matt Dunlap D vs. Paul LePage R (Trump 54%)- Tossup (D)

 

ME current: 2 D, 0 R

ME predicted: 2 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 95 D, 86 R 

 

Predicted:

 

105 D (67 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  76 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________________

 

Maryland

 

1. Dan Schwartz D vs. Andy Harris R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

2. Johnny Olszewski D vs Dave Wallace R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

3. Sarah Elfreth D vs. Berney Flowers R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

4. Glenn Ivey D vs. George McDermott R (Harris 86%)- Safe D

5. Adrian Boafo D vs. Chris Chaffee R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

6. April McClain Delaney D vs. Robin Ficker R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

7. Kweisi Mfume D vs. Scott Collier R (Harris 78%)- Safe D

8. Jamie Raskin D vs. Cheryl Riley R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

 

MD current: 7 D, 1 R

MD predicted: 7 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 102 D, 87 R 

 

Predicted:

 

112 D (74 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  77 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 15 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Massachusetts

 

1, Richard Neal D vs. Nadia Milleron I (Harris 56%)- Safe D

2. Jim McGovern D (Harris 61%)- Safe D

3. Lori Trahan D vs. Gary Grossi R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

4. Jake Auchincloss D vs. Tom Stalcup R (Harris 59%)= Safe D

5. Katherine Clark D vs (Derek Fleming I) (Harris 71%)- Safe D

6. Dan Koh D vs. Micah Jones R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

7. Ayanna Pressley D (Harris 80%) - Safe D

8. Stephen Lynch D vs. Rob Burke R (Harris 62%)- Safe D

9. Bill Keating D vs. Tyler Macallister R  (Harris 55%)- Likely D

MA current: 9 D, 0 R

MA predicted: 9 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 111 D, 87 R

 

Predicted:

 

121 D (81 Safe, 23 Likely, 11 Leans, 6 Tossup)

  77 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 15 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________ 

 

Michigan

 

1. Callie Barr D vs. Jack Bergman R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

2. Ben Ambrose D vs. John Moolenaar R (Trump 64%)- Likely R

3. Hillary Scholten D vs. Terri DeBoer R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Sean McCann D vs. Bill Huizenga R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

5. Christian Vukasovich D vs. Tim Walberg R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

6. Debbie Dingell D vs. Heather Smiley R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

7. William Lawrence D vs. Tom Barrett R (Trump 50%)- Tossup (D)

8. Kristen McDonald Rivet D vs. Tom Smith R (Trump 50%)- Likely D

9. Ray Pooley D vs. Lisa McClain R (Trump 66%)- Safe R

10. Christina Hines D vs. Mike Bouchard R (Trump 52%)- Tossup (D)

11. Jeremy Moss D vs. Ethan Baker R (Harris 57%)- Likely D

12. Rashida Tlaib D vs. James Hooper R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

13. Donovan McKinney D vs. TP Nykoriak R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

 

MI current: 6 D, 7 R

MI predicted: 9 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 117 D, 94 R

 

Predicted:

 

130 D (84 Safe, 26 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  81 R (34 Safe, 28 Likely, 16 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________ 

 

Minnesota

 

1. Jake Johnson D vs. Brad Finstad R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

2. Matt Little D vs. Eric Pratt R (Harris 52%)- Leans D

3. Kelly Morrison D vs. Tyler Bass R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

4. Betty McCollum D vs. Paul Wikstrom R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

5. Ilhan Omar D vs. John Nagel R (Harris 80%)- Safe D

6. Doug Chapin D vs. Tom Emmer R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

7. Erik Osberg D vs. Michelle Fishbach R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

8. Trina Swanson D vs. Pete Stauber R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

 

MN current: 4 D, 4 R

MN predicted: 4 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 121 D, 98 R

 

Predicted:

 

134 D (87 Safe, 26 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  85 R (34 Safe, 31 Likely, 17 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________ 

Mississippi

 

1. Cliff Johnson D vs. Trent Kelly R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

2. Bennie Thompson D vs. Ron Eller R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

3. Michael Chiaradio D vs. Michael Guest R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

4. Jeffrey Hulum D vs. Mike Ezell R (Trump 71%)- Likely R

MS current: 1 D, 3 R

MS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total:  122 D, 101 R

 

Predicted:

 

135 D (88 Safe, 26 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  88 R (36 Safe, 32 Likely, 17 Leans, 3 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Missouri

 

1. Wesley Bell D vs. Paul Berry R (Harris 78%)- Safe D

2. Fred Wellman D vs, Ann Wagner R (Trump 53%)- Tossup (R)

3. Bethany Mann D vs Bob Onder R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

4. Jordan Herrera D vs. Mark Alford R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

5. Emanuel Cleaver D vs. Rick Brattin R (Harris 61%)- Likely D

6. Josh Smead D vs. Chris Stigall R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

7. Missi Hesketh D vs. Eric Burlison R (Trump 71%)= Safe R

8. Chris Reichard D vs. Jason Smith R (Trump 77%)- Safe R

 

MO current: 2 D, 6 R

MO predicted: 2 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 107 R

 

Predicted:

 

137 D (89 Safe, 27 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  94 R (41 Safe, 32 Likely, 17 Leans, 4 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________________ 

 

Montana

 

1. Sam Forstag D vs. Aaron Flint R (Trump 54%)- Tossup (R)

2. Brian Miller D vs. Troy Downing R (Trump 63%)- Likely R

 

MT current: 0 D, 2 R

MT predicted: 0 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 124 D, 109 R

 

Predicted:

 

137 D (89 Safe, 27 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)

  96 R (41 Safe, 33 Likely, 17 Leans, 5 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Idaho- Louisiana

11 Days Until Election Day

 

Idaho

 

1. Kaylee Peterson D vs. Sarah Zabel I vs. Russ Fulcher R (Trump 71%)- Likely R

2. Ellie Gilbreath D vs. Mike Simpson R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

 

ID current: 0 D, 2 R

ID predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 73 D, 60 R 

 

Predicted:

 

80 D (55 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

53 R (17 Safe, 21 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Illinois

 

1. Jonathan Jackson D vs. Christian Maxwell R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

2. Donna Miller D vs. Mike Noack R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

3. Delia Ramirez D vs. Angel Oakley R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

4. Ed Hershey I vs. Patty Garcia D vs. Chris Getty I vs. Lupe Castillo R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

5. Mike Quigley D vs. Tommy Hanson R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

6. Sean Casten D vs. Niki Conforti R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

7. LaShawn Ford D vs. Chad Koppie R (Harris 82%)- Safe D

8. Melissa Bean D vs. Jennifer Davis R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

9. Daniel Biss D vs. John Elleson R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

10. Brad Schneider D vs. Carl Lambrecht R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

11. Bill Foster D vs. Jeff Walter R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

12. Julie Fortier D vs. Mike Bost R (Trump 71%)- Safe R

13. Nikki Budzinksi D vs. Jeff Wilson R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

14. Lauren Underwood D vs. Jim Marter R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

15. Jennifer Todd D vs. Mary Miller R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

16. Paul Nolley D vs. Darin LaHood R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

17. Eric Sorensen D vs. Dillan Vancil R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

 

IL current: 14 D, 3 R

IL predicted: 14 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 87 D, 63 R 

 

Predicted:

 

94 D (63 Safe, 19 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

56 R (19 Safe, 22 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Indiana

1. Frank Mrvan D vs. Barb Regnitz R (Harris 49%)- Likely D

2. Jamee Decio D vs. Rudy Yakym R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

3. Kelly Thompson D vs. Marlin Stutzman R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

4. Drew Cox D vs. Jim Baird R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. JD Ford D vs. Victoria Spartz R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

6. Cinde Wirth D vs. Jefferson Shreve R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

7. Andre Carson D vs. Patrick McAuley R (Harris 70%)- Safe D

8. Mary Allen D vs. Mark Messmer R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

9. Brad Meyer D vs. Erin Houchin R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

 

IN current: 2 D, 7 R

IN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

 

Current total: 89 D, 70 R

 

Predicted:

 

96 D (64 Safe, 20 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

63 R (24 Safe, 23 Likely, 13 Leans, 3 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________

Iowa

 

1. Christina Bohannan D vs. Marianette Miller-Meeks R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

2. Lindsay James D vs. Joe Mitchell R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

3. Sarah Trone Garriott D vs. Zach Nunn R (Trump 52%)- Leans D

4. Dave Dawson D vs. Chris McGowan R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

IA current: 0 D, 4 R

IA predicted: 3 D, 1 R

 

Current total:  89 D, 74 R

 

Predicted:

 

99 D (64 Safe, 20 Likely, 11 Leans, 4 Tossup)

64 R (24 Safe, 24 Likely, 13 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Kansas

1. Lauren Reinhold D vs. Tracey Mann R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

2. Don Coover D vs. Derek Schmidt R (Trump 59%)- Leans R

3. Sharice Davids D vs. Eric Jenkins R (Harris 51%)- Likely D

4. Katy Tyndell D vs, Ron Estes R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

KS current: 1 D, 3 R

KS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 90 D, 77 R

Predicted:

 

100 D (64 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 4 Tossup)

  67 R (25 Safe, 25 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________

 

Kentucky

1. John Williams D vs. James Comer R (Trump 73%)- Safe R

2. Megan Wingfield D vs. Brett Guthrie R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

3. Morgan McGarvey D vs. Maria Teresa Rodriguez R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

4. Melissa Strange D vs. Jeremy Todd I vs. Ed Gallrein R (Trump 67%)- Likely R

5. Ned Pillersdorf D vs. Hal Rogers R (Trump 81%)- Safe R

6. Zach Dembo D vs. Ralph Alvarado R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (D)

 

KY current: 1 D, 5 R

KY predicted: 2 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 91 D, 82 R

 

Predicted:

 

102 D (65 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 5 Tossup)

  71 R (28 Safe, 26 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

______________________________________________________

 

Louisiana

 

1. Lauren Jewett D vs. Randy Arrington R vs. Steve Scalise R (Trump 68%)- Safe R/Safe Scalise

2. Troy Carter D vs. Renada Collins D vs. Peter Williams R (Harris 73%)- Safe D/Safe Carter

3. John Day D vs. Priscilla Gonzalez D vs. Caleb Walker D vs. Kate Cotten R vs .Clay Higgins R (Trump 67%)- Safe R/Safe Higgins

4. Conrad Cable D vs. Matt Gromlich D vs. Gordon Heslop R vs. Mike Johnson R vs. Mike Nichols R (Trump 67%)- Safe R/Safe Johnson

5. Dan McKay D vs. Pat Moore D vs. Antonio Wilson D vs, Stewart Cathey R vs, Misti Cordell R vs. Oscar Dantzler R vs. Michael Echols R vs. Gabe Firment R vs. Austin Magee R (Trump 66%)- Safe R/Tossup (Cathey)

6. Chauna Banks D vs. Pat Forbes D vs. Lindsay Garcia D vs. Monique Appeaning R vs. Larry Davis R vs. Rick Edmonds R vs. Michael Mebruer R vs. Blake Miguez R vs. Stephen Wagley R (Trump 64%)- Likely R/Leans Miguez

 

LA current: 2 D, 4 R

LA predicted: 1 D, 5 R

 

Current total: 93 D, 86 R

Predicted:

 

103 D (66 Safe, 21 Likely, 11 Leans, 5 Tossup)

  76 R (32 Safe, 27 Likely, 14 Leans, 3 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Florida- Hawai'i

12 Days Until Election Day

 

Florida

 

1. Gay Valimont D vs. Jimmy Patronis R (Trump 68%)- Likely R

2. Amanda Marie Green D vs. Austin Rogers R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

3. Seth Harp D vs. Kat Cammack R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

4. LaShonda Holloway D vs. Aaron Bean R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

5. Rachel Grage D vs. John Rutherford R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

6. Eric Yonce D vs. Randy Fine R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

7. Bale Dalton D vs. Ryan Elijah R (Trump 56%)- Leans R

8. Jennifer Jenkins D vs. Mike Haridopolos R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

9. Darren Soto D vs. Dan Green R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

10. Maxwell Frost D (Harris 61%)- Safe D

11. James Pericola D vs. Joe Strada R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

12. Kimberly Overman D vs. Gus Bilirakis R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

13. Leela Gray D vs. Anna Paulina Luna R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

14. Kathy Castor D vs. Mike Beltran R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

15. Robert People D vs. Laurel Lee R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

16. Kelly Kirschner D vs. Sydney Gruters R (Trump 56%)- Tossup (R)

17. Matthew Montavon D vs. Greg Steube R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

18. Curtis Gibson D vs. Scott Franklin R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

19. Victor Arias D vs. Jim Schwartzel R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

20. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D vs. Brent Andersen R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

21. James Martin D vs. Brian Mast R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

22. Pia Dandiya D vs. Casey Askar R (Trump 55%)- Tossup (D)

23. Lois Frankel D vs. Deb Adeimy R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

24. Oliver Gilbert D vs. Te Brown R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

25. Jared Moskowitz D vs. Scott Singer R (Trump 54%)- Leans D

26. Nicole Locklin D vs. Mario Diaz-Balart R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

27. Elliott Rodriguez D vs. Maria Elvira Salazar R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

28. Phil Ehr D vs. Carlos Gimenez R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

 

FL current: 8 D, 20 R

FL predicted: 7 D, 21 R

 

Current total: 66 D, 49 R

 

Predicted:

 

73 D (49 Safe, 12 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

42 R (13 Safe, 14 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________

 

Georgia

 

1. Amanda Hollowell D vs. Jim Kingston R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

2. Sanford Bishop D vs. Matt Day R (Harris 54%)- Likely D

3. Maura Keller D vs. Brian Jack R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

4. Hank Johnson D vs. Jim Duffie R (Harris 76%)- Safe D

5. Nikema Williams D vs. John Salvesen R (Harris 85%)- Safe D

6. Lucy McBath D vs. Kevin Martin R (Harris 75%)- Safe D

7. Tony Kozycki D vs. Rich McCormick R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

8. Kelly Esti D vs. Austin Scott R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

9. Caitlyn Gegen D vs. Andrew Clyde R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

10. Pam DeLancy D vs. Houston Gaines R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

11. Chris Harden D vs. John Cowan R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

12. Ceretta Smith D vs. Rick Allen R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

13. Jasmine Clark D vs, Jonathan Chavez R (Harris 71%)- Safe D

14. Shawn Harris D vs. Clay Fuller R (Trump 68%)- Likely R

GA current: 5 D, 9 R

GA predicted: 5 D, 9 R

 

Current total: 71 D, 58 R

 

Predicted:

 

78 D (53 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

51 R (16 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

__________________________________________________________________________

 

Hawai'i

 

1. Ed Case D vs. Adriel Lam R (Harris 62%)- Safe D

2. Jill Tokuda D vs. Brenton Awa R (Harris 60%)- Safe D

 

HI current: 2 D, 0 R

HI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 73 D, 58 R 

 

Predicted:

 

80 D (55 Safe, 13 Likely,  8 Leans,  4 Tossup)

51 R (16 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans, 3 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: California- Delaware

13 Days Until Election Day

 

California

1. Mike McGuire D vs. James Gallagher R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

2. Jared Huffman D vs. Robin Littau R (Harris 61%)- Safe D 

3. Ami Bera D vs. Robb Tucker R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

4. Mike Thompson D vs. Eric Jones D (Harris 56%)- Safe D/Likely Thompson

5. Michael Masuda D vs. Tom McClintock R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

6. Richard Pan D vs. Kevin Kiley I (Harris 53%)- Leans D

7. Mai Vang D vs. Doris Matsui D (Harris 55%)- Safe D/Tossup (Matsui)

8. John Garamendi D vs. Rudy Recile R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

9. Josh Harder D vs. John McBride R (Harris 54%)- Safe D

10. Mark DeSaulnier D vs. Jeff Frese R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

11. Connie Chan D vs. Scott Wiener D (Harris 82%)- Safe D/Leans Wiener

12. Lateefah Simon D vs. Jamie Joyce D (Harris 85%)- Safe D/Safe Simon

13. Adam Gray D vs. Kevin Lincoln R (Harris 49%)-  Leans D

14. Aisha Wahab D vs. Melissa Hernandez D (Harris 65%)- Safe D/Leans Wahab

15. Kevin Mullin D vs. Charles Hoelter R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

16. Sam Liccardo D vs. Peter Soule R (Harris 72%)- Safe D

17. Ro Khanna D vs. Ritesh Tandon R (Harris 67%)- Safe D

18. Zoe Lofgren D vs. Shane Lewis R (Harris 63%)- Safe D

19. Jimmy Panetta D vs. Peter Verbica R (Harris 65%)- Safe D

20. Sandra Van Scotter D vs. Vince Fong R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

21. Jim Costa D vs. Kyle Kirkland R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

22. Randy Villegas D vs. David Valadao R (Trump 50%)- Tossup (D)

23. Tessa Lynn Hodge D vs. Jay Obernolte R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

24. Salud Carbajal D vs. Bob Smith R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

25. Raul Ruiz D vs. Joe Males R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

26. Jacqui Irwin D vs. Sam Gallucci R (Harris 56%)- Likely D

27. George Whitesides D vs. Jason Gibbs R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

28. Judy Chu D vs. April Verlato R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

29. Angelica Duenas D vs. Luz Rivas D (Harris 65%)- Safe D/Likely Rivas

30. Laura Friedman D vs Scott Meyers R (Harris 68%)- Safe D

31. Gil Cisneros D vs. Eric Ching R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

32. Brad Sherman D vs. Larry Thompson R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

33. Pete Aguilar D vs. Stephanie Vargas R (Harris 53%)- Safe D

34. Angela Gonzales-Torres D vs. Jimmy Gomez D (Harris 73%)- Safe D/Leans Gonzales-Torres

35. Norma Torres D vs. Mike Cargile R (Harris 52%)- Safe D

36. Ted Lieu D vs. Houston Brigano R (Harris 68%))- Safe D

37. Samantha Mota D vs. Sydney Kamlager-Dove D (Harris 79%)- Safe D/Likely Kamlager-Dove

38. Hilda Solis D vs. Pedro Casas R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

39. Mark Takano D vs. Steve Manos R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

40. Young Kim R vs. Ken Calvert R (Trump 55%)- Safe R/Tossup (Calvert)

41. Linda Sanchez D vs. Mitch Clemmons R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

42. Robert Garcia D vs. Brian Burley R (Harris 55%)- Safe D

43. Maxine Waters D vs. Christian Morales R (Harris 73%)- Safe D

44. Nanette Barragan D vs. Genevieve Angel R (Harris 66%)- Safe D

45. Derek Tran D vs. Chuong Vo R (Harris 51%)- Leans D

46. Lou Correa D vs. David Pan R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

47. Dave Min D vs. Jenny Rae LeRoux R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

48. Marni von Wilpert D vs. Jim Desmond R (Harris 50%)- Leans D

49. Mike Levin D vs. Armen Kurdian R (Harris 55%)- Likely D

50. Scott Peters D vs. Steve Cohen R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

51. Sara Jacobs D vs. Richard Cabrera R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

52. Juan Vargas D vs. Jeff Belle R (Harris 58%)- Safe D

 

CA current: 43 D, 9 R

CA predicted: 48 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 48 D, 25 R

 

Predicted:

 

54 D (36 Safe, 11 Likely, 6 Leans, 1 Tossup)

19 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 5 Leans, 1 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________

 

Colorado

 

1. Melat Kiros D vs Shimon Blau I vs. Christy Peterson R (Harris 77%)- Safe D

2. Joe Neguse D vs. Kelley Dennison R (Harris 69%)- Safe D

3. Dwayne Romero D vs. Jeff Hurd R (Trump 54%)- Leans R

4. Eileen Laubacher D vs. Lauren Boebert R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

5. Jessica Killin D vs. Jeff Crank R (Trump 53%)- Tossup (D)

6. Jason Crow D vs. Jason Clark R (Harris 59%)- Safe D

7. Brittany Petterersen D vs. Tim Bennett R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

8. Manny Rutinel D vs. Gabe Evans R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

CO current: 4 D, 4 R

CO predicted: 6 D, 2 R

 

Current total: 52 D, 29 R 

 

Predicted:

 

60 D (40 Safe, 11 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

 

Connecticut

 

1. Luke Bronin D vs. Amy Chai R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

2. Joe Courtney D vs. George Austin R (Harris 53%)- Safe D

3. Rosa DeLauro D vs. Chris Lancia R (Harris 56%)- Safe D

4. Jim Himes D vs. Michael Goldstein R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

5. Jahana Hayes D vs. Chris Shea R (Harris 52%)- Likely D

CT current:  5 D, 0 R

CT predicted: 5 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 57 D, 29 R

 

Predicted:

 

65 D (44 Safe, 12 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 ___________________________________________________________

Delaware

 

1. Sarah McBride D vs. Joe Arminio R (Harris 57%)- Safe D

DE current: 1 D, 0 R

DE predicted: 1 D, 0 R

 

Current total: 58 D, 29 R

 

Predicted:

 

66 D (45 Safe, 12 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R ( 8 Safe,    5 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: Alabama- Arkansas

14 Days Until Election Day

 

To start this off, I am going to try to ease it into this a bit. I have been predicting all 435 House races on here since the 2006 election and while I hate to brag, I have an extremely good record at this, especially in the latest cycles. With only doing some extremely light research, I wind up having a correct/incorrect record as to the winner that is as good as or better than the professional pundits who go on tv. 

 

That being said, I think I might be headed to my worst record yet this cycle. If there is a wave election, I will definitely miss a bunch of seats that may go Blue. Also, there is just so much redistricting in various states, even since the 2024 election, that it is much harder to gauge what will happen. The only real source I can seem to find for all the current 2026 districts that include the 2024 Presidential results by district are from Daily Kos. They are probably accurate, but it is pretty amazing that I find myself reliant on them to be trustworthy.

 

Since so many states have different district lines than 2024, I might as well just list the major candidates in each district. That will take some time and I might have some misspellings or other non-intentional errors along the way. Unfortunately for our democracy, we are probably entering an era where all sorts of states will be redrawing their lines every two years. 

 

Finally, I must be transparent and point out that on July 23, on a post about Special Elections, I predicted the 13th District in Georgia would be Safe D, and of course it was. However, I said it would "Likely" go to a specific Democrat that lost and instead went to someone else. Neither of those Democrats ran in the regular election anyway.

 

Alabama

 

1. Clyde Jones D vs. Jerry Carl R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

2. Shomari Figures D vs. Rhett Marquis R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

3. Lee McInnis D vs. Mike Rogers R (Trump 73%)- Safe R

4. Amanda Pusczek D vs. Robert Aderholt R (Trump 83%)- Safe R

5. Andrew Sneed D vs. Dale Strong R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

6. Maurice Mercer D vs. Gary Palmer R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

7. Terri Sewell D vs. Ammie Akin R (Harris 59%)- Likely D

 

AL current: 2 D, 5 R

AL predicted: 1 D, 6 R

 

Current total: 2 D, 5 R

 

Predicted:

 

1 D (1 Likely)

6 R (5 Safe, 1 Leans)

_______________________________________________________________________ 

 

Alaska

 

1. Eric Hafner D vs. Bill Hill I vs. Nick Begich R (Trump 55%)- Leans R

 

AK current: 0 D, 1 R

AK predicted: 0 D, 1 R

 

Current total: 2 D, 6 R

 

Predicted:

 

1 D (1 Likely)

7 R (5 Safe, 2 Leans)

________________________________________________________________________ 

 

Arizona

 

1. Amish Shah D vs. Jay Feely R (Trump 51%)- Leans D

2. Jonathan Nez D vs. Eli Crane R (Trump 57%)- Leans R

3. Yassamin Ansari D vs. (Jacob Parkman R) (Harris 69%)- Safe D

4. Greg Stanton D vs. Zuhdi Jasser R (Harris 53%)- Likely D

5. Elizabeth Lee D vs. Mark Lamb R (Trump 60%)- Leans R

6. JoAnna Mendoza D vs. Juan Ciscomani R (Trump 50%)- Leans D

7. Adelita Grijalva D vs. Daniel Butierez R (Harris 61%)- Safe D

8. Bernadette Greene-Placentia D vs. Abe Hamadeh R (Trump 58%)- Leans R

9. Dani Sterbinsky D vs. Paul Gosar R (Trump 65%)- Likely R

 

AZ current: 3 D, 6 R

AZ predicted: 5 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 5 D, 12 R

 

Predicted:

 

 6 D (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

11 R (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 5 Leans)

__________________________________________________________________________

 

Arkansas

 

1. Terri Yarbrough Green D vs. Rick Crawford R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

2. Chris Jones D vs. French Hill R (Trump 57%)- Tossup (R)

3. Robb Ryerse D vs. Steve Womack R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

4. James Russell D vs. Bruce Westerman R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

AR current: 0 D, 4 R

AR predicted: 0 D, 4 R

 

Current total: 5 D, 16 R

 

Predicted:

 

  6 D (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

15 R (7 Safe, 2 Likely, 5 Leans, 1 Tossup)

NFL Week 6 Results and Week 7 Games

15 Days Until Election Day

These are not predictions. However, predictions of all 435 U.S. House races will begin tomorrow. That will be quite an undertaking over a shorter period of time than I have done it in some while.

Week 6

1. Seahawks (3-2) at Broncos (3-2) W 1

 

 

 

2.  Texans (1-4) vs Jaguars (4-1) in London, England L 1

3.  Bears (3-2) at Falcons (2-3) W 2

4.  Ravens (4-1) at Browns (3-2) L 2

5.  Titans (0-5) at Colts (2-3) W 3

6.  Jets (2-3) at Patriots (3-2) L 3

7.  Saints (1-4) at Giants (3-1-1) W 4

8.  Panthers (2-2) at Eagles (2-3) L 4

9.  Steelers (3-2) at Buccaneers (1-4) W 5

10. Cardinals (1-4) at Rams (2-3) W 6

11. Chargers (0-5) at Chiefs (4-0) W 7

12. Bills (4-1) at Raiders (3-2) W 8

13. Cowboys (2-3) at Packers (3-2) L 5

 

14. Commanders (1-3-1) at 49ers (5-0) L 6

 

Week 6 Results: 8-6 (57%)

Overall Results: 46-46 (50%) 

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Week 7

 

1.  Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2)

 (in honor of Super Bowl XX, win this one for Coach Ditka!)

 

 

2.   Steelers (4-2) vs Saints (2-4) in Saint-Denis, France

 (and then Aaron Rodgers can stay behind in Paris to fix the riots)

3.   49ers (6-0) at Falcons (2-4)

4.   Bengals (3-2) at Ravens (4-2)

5.   Buccaneers (1-5) at Panthers (3-2)

6.   Giants (3-2-1) at Texans (2-4)

7.   Colts (2-4) at Vikings (5-0)

8.   Dolphins (0-5) at Jets (2-4)

9.   Browns (4-2) at Titans (1-5)

10. Broncos (4-2) at Cardinals (2-4)

11.  Packers (4-2) at Lions (3-2)

12.  Rams (2-4) at Raiders (3-3)

13.  Chiefs (5-0) at Seahawks (3-3)

 

14.  Cowboys (2-4) at Eagles (2-4)

(somebody actually has to win the NFC East. Perhaps all four NFC North teams will make 

playoffs) 

U.S. Senate Recap and Updates

16 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Safe Republican

Alaska- Tossup (D)

Arkansas- Likely Republican (change from Safe R) 

Colorado- Safe Democrat

Delaware- Safe Democrat

Florida- Likely Republican (change from Leans R) 

Georgia- Likely Democrat (change from Leans D) 

Idaho- Likely Republican

Illinois- Likely Democrat

Iowa- Tossup (D) (change from Tossup R) 

Kansas- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R) 

Kentucky- Likely Republican

Louisiana- Likely Republican

Maine- Tossup (R)

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat

Michigan- Tossup (D) (change from Tossup R) 

Minnesota- Leans Democrat

Mississippi- Leans Republican (change from Likely R) 

Montana- Leans Republican

Nebraska- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R)

New Hampshire- Leans Democrat

New Jersey- Safe Democrat

New Mexico- Safe Democrat

North Carolina- Likely Democrat (change from Leans D) 

Ohio- Tossup (D)

Oklahoma- Safe Republican

Oregon- Safe Democrat

Rhode Island- Safe Democrat

South Carolina- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R)

South Dakota- Leans Republican

Tennessee- Safe Republican

Texas- Tossup (D)

Virginia- Likely Democrat

West Virginia- Safe Republican

Wyoming- Safe Republican 

 

Senate total predicted:

52 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 5 Tossup) 

48 R (31 holdover, 5 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 5

Gubernatorial Recap and Updates

17 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Likely Republican

Alaska- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D)

Arizona- Likely Democrat (change from Leans D)

Arkansas- Likely Republican (change from Safe R) 

California- Likely Democrat

Colorado- Safe Democrat

Connecticut- Likely Democrat

Florida- Leans Republican (change from Tossup R)

Georgia- Tossup (R)

Hawai'i-  Safe Democrat

Idaho- Likely Republican (change from Safe R)

Illinois- Safe Democrat (change from Likely D) 

Iowa- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D) 

Kansas- Leans Republican

Maine-  Likely Democrat (change from Leans D)

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Massachusetts- Likely Democrat

Michigan- Leans Democrat

Minnesota- Likely Democrat  

Nebraska- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R) 

Nevada- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R)

New Hampshire- Leans Republican

New Mexico- Leans Democrat

New York- Likely Democrat

Ohio- Tossup (D)

Oklahoma- Leans Republican (change from Likely R) 

Oregon- Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat

Rhode Island- Likely Democrat

South Carolina- Likely Republican

South Dakota- Likely Republican

Tennessee- Leans Republican (change from Likely R) 

Texas- Tossup (R) (change from Leans R) 

Vermont- Leans Republican

Wisconsin- Leans Democrat

Wyoming- Safe Republican 

 

Total with predictions:

26 D (6 holdover, 4 Safe,  9 Likely, 6 Leans, 1 Tossup)

24 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe,  5 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 2