Oklahoma Governor- Race of the Day

44 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

In 2018, Republican Kevin Stitt surpassed more well-known Republican candidates in a Gubernatorial primary and beat an establishment favorite in the runoff to be on his way to being elected in one of the nation's most strongly red states. As one of just two people of Native American ancestry, both from Oklahoma, to become Governor Stitt won as an outsider businessman in the mold of Donald Trump. For a time in 2022, he was thought to be vulnerable to a strong Democrat opponent but still won by 13 points. Now that Stitt is leaving office with term limits, he is definitely not considered a Trump favorite.  While generally aligned on major issues, they have clashed on some matters, and lately the Governor has been among those around the country who hold the office to call for more bipartisan cooperation and civility. He might perhaps be someone to watch if he decides to become a very long-shot Presidential contender.

 

With the Governorship open, in a state in which he has never even lost a county in any of his three runs, Trump has played a large role in the Republican nomination process. Current Lt. Governor Matt Pinnell surprised many by saying he would not run for this or any other office in 2026. Other prominent Republican names did enter the field including Chip Keating, the former state Secretary of Public Safety, whose father was once Governor and was nearly picked to be George W. Bush's running-mate in 2000. He was endorsed by Governor Stitt. Charles McCall, who had just finished up eight years as Speaker of the House also ran, as did former State Senator Jake Merrick. The frontrunner though was considered to be Gentner Drummond, Oklahoma's Attorney General, who had cultivated an image as a MAGA champion.

Trump surprised a ton of people in the Sooner State and around Republican circles nationwide though, when he endorsed a different, more longshot candidate. Nobody is quite sure why he eschewed Drummond or picked someone at all, but there has been speculation that Mike Mazzei, who had wrapped up a tenure as a State Senator a decade ago, and who later served as Secretary of the Budget, relationship as a client of Roger Stone played a part. The extremely controversial Stone, who was pardoned by Donald Trump, is one of Trump's oldest political advisors and with Mazzei as a client, could have somehow convinced the President to go out on a limb here. Mazzei's last race was for State Treasurer in 2022 and he had dropped out before the Republican primary. The Tulsa businessman was considered somewhat of a longshot in the crowded 2026 Gubernatorial field, although he had backing from some ideological conservatives.

 

In June, Trump's endorsement helped Mazzei get into a runoff, if nothing else. Drummond was narrowly ahead of the field with 26 percent with Mazzei just behind him. Keating took 19, Merrick 15, and McCall 12, A runoff was set for late August and questions emerged as to if Mazzei could defeat Drummond then, even with Trump's support, and if he might possibly have general election problems if he did. In this round, outgoing Governor Stitt also endorsed Mazzei, after having frequently clashed with Attorney General Drummond. Other Trump associates, including new DHS Secretary and recent Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin also endorsed Mazzei, Still, it turned out to be a 50-50 race with Mazzei only taking the runoff by a couple thousand votes. He definitely owes his nomination and potential Governorship to Trump, but Oklahoma Republicans proved that there will still some who were not prepared to march in lockstep with a Truth Social post. After the bitter runoff primary, Drummond has yet to issue a formal endorsement of the winner,

 

Democrats have a credible candidate for this office, but they also thought that four years ago, when they nominated a woman who had won statewide office as a Republican and then changed parties. This time, the nominee is Cyndi Munson, the State House Minority Leader. In the primary, Munson easily defeated two opponents 75 percent. That included Connie Johnson, an African-American former State Senator and member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She had lost in a blowout as the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2014 and also Gubernatorial primaries in 2018 and 2022. In this race, Johnson took just 22 percent even as another racial minority female DSA member won the U.S. Senate nomination.

 

Munson, at age 41, is twenty years younger than her opponent Mazzei. The biracial daughter of a South Korean immigrant mother she might be running in the right cycle against the right opponent in terms of a chance to make things look somewhat competitive. Mazzei is still not that well-known, barely won his party's nomination, and has some ethical issues from his past. It seems odd that being a client of Roger Stone was the one qualification that catapulted him into contention. Nonetheless, Oklahoma is just very, very Republican. There do not look to be much in the way of polling data to gauge whether a massive upset is in anyway in play.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

15 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R  (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

21 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Ohio U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

45 Days Until Election Day

Ohio U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

Yesterday, I wrote a whole lot about the race for Governor in the Buckeye State. The contest for U.S. Senate is very much a companion type election. With polarization as strong as it is these days, it seems hard to imagine that the two parties can split these two races. The same one will likely pull through in both by about the same margin. However, if there are ticket splitters, this may be the one that might work out better for Democrats, despite it being a federal race in a red state, despite it being an incumbent on the ballot instead of a first time candidate in the state for Republicans, and despite the Republican nominee being a less polarizing person. Go figure.

Indeed, the two nominees for Senate are far more familiar to Ohio voters and far more along the lines of traditional politicians. This is a special election and the seat will be contested again in 2028. That leaves not much time for the winner to relax but I think it is unlikely that the person who loses this race will be nominated by their party in 2028. JD Vance was only a Senator for two years before being tapped by Donald Trump to run for Vice President. Now, he presides over the Senate and will swear in the winner of this race early next year. In 2022, Vance came from behind to win a contested Republican primary, after receiving Trump's endorsement and the one time harsh Trump critic tuned acolyte won by seven points in November over former Congressman Tim Ryan. Ohio, once an ultimate bellwether had move substantially towards the Republicans.

With the vacancy approaching, Republican Governor Mike DeWine had the responsibility to pick the Republican to serve in the body he once did himself. Some wanted him to look at Matt Dolan, a former State Senator who in both 2022 and 2024 lost Republican Senate primaries, while running as the closest thing to a non-Trump Republican, similar to DeWine himself. Others in the party wanted him to pick MAGA favorite Vivek Ramaswamy, a tech entrepreneur who had run for President in 2024. Ultimately though, DeWine picked his own Lt. Governor Jon Husted, a fairly safe establishment pick. 

This was not the first time DeWine selected Husted but this move allowed the incoming Senator to basically have a new job on Capitol Hill and not have to face the sort of primary challenge he was looking at if he had done what he had been intending to do, in running for Governor in 2028. This would eventually leave Ramaswamy as the Gubernatorial nominee, with Trump's support, after others in the party declined to challenge him.

Husted has held office in the state since winning a race for State Representative in 2000. He eventually became Speaker of the House and then was elected to the first of two terms as Secretary of State in 2010. In 2018, he ran for Governor, but facing a three way primary against two other statewide elected officials, he joined up with then Attorney General DeWine to run for Lt. Governor. He seemed to be preparing to try again for Governor and if not for a Senate vacancy likely would have done so, but with the appointment to the Senate, he shifted gears and was unopposed in the May primary.

Democrat Sherrod Brown has an even longer history in the state's politics. He was elected to the Ohio House in the year of 1974, just as he was turning 22 years old. In 1982, as he was turning 30 he was elected Secretary of State, yet another job Husted would one day hold. Brown served in that post for two terms but then suffered a setback when he was defeated for reelection in 1990. Not wanting to stay out of the political game long, Brown ran for an open U.S. House seat in 1992 and won easily. In Congress, he made a name for himself as a pro-union, anti-trade, often disheveled populist, emblematic of the kind of Rust Belt Democrats who dominated parts of Ohio at the time. In 2006, the House veteran took on Senator Mike DeWine, who was seeking a third term, and in a strongly Democrat year and won by double digits. Back then, Ohio had a political quirk where anybody who elected Governor or U.S. Senate was someone who had once lost a statewide race first. Brown continued his populist ways in the Senate, even as he started combing his hair a bit more after getting married to a prominent newspaper columnist from Cleveland. Even as Ohio started to turn more red, he won reelection in a competitive 2012 race and then again 2018, as the last Democrat to have won a statewide non-judicial race.

Running for a fourth term in 2024 though, the political environment of Ohio finally caught up with him. Polls showed he had a decent chance of winning for most of the cycle, but on the day that Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 11 points, Brown lost to Republican Bernie Moreno 50-46. The race between the two had been quite bitter at times, but the incumbent conceded late on Election Night.

Now in his 70s, many wondered if Brown was done with politics or if he would amount the same kind of quick comeback he succeeded in after his loss back in 1990. Very few Senators in American history who have lost reelection have won a return engagement. The last to do so was a Republican from Washington who won in 1988 after having been unseated in 1986. This year though, Brown is attempting to do the same thing (as is a New Hampshire Republican who lost 18 years ago.) The now former Senator sought to win his old job back instead of mounting a race for the open Governorship which some felt might have been a better political option at the time. As mentioned, if victorious, he will have to run again in the Presidential year of 2028 (when Vance might be leading the Republican ticket), if he is not thinking of merely having a two year redemption stint before entering retirement.

In announcing for Senate, Brown kept other prominent Democrats in the state, including 2022 nominee Tim Ryan out of the contest. Some other little known candidates also dropped out. One candidate, an IT professional, stayed in the race, and ran a bit to Brown's left, which is perhaps not easy to do. The more well-known candidate won 89-11. That was clearly a blowout, but some in the party probably were thinking that Sherrod Brown had been around long enough.

Brown lost as an incumbent two years ago and is now challenging an incumbent. Conventional wisdom would suggest this would make this race even more difficult. While Husted has not been elected to the Senate in his own right, he has won statewide office and in theory should have little to worry about in present-day Ohio. This is expected to be a very tough cycle for Republicans though and any voter remorse that exists from those who voted in 2024 for Trump and may now regret it, have an outlet in voting to return the Senator who was rejected the same year. Some of the early polls from last year had Husted ahead by a modest margin, but as 2026 has progressed, the polls now seem to show Brown ahead narrowly.

This will be an expensive race focused on national political narratives. Brown has clearly managed to win the votes of a lot of Ohioans who voted for Trump, including in his 2018 and 2024 Senate elections. Obviously there were not enough of those ticket splitters in 2024 to save his job as voters were in the mood for change after a fairly unpopular term of Joe Biden and the political drama going on from his time in the White House. There is no shortage of drama these days with Trump though and concerns about inflation and the economy persist. Then of course there is Iran and all the rest that might be on the mind of voters. Brown is in a somewhat awkward position once again, as in 2024, he ran ads trying to portray himself as a sometime legislative ally of Trump. Now this year, he is having to walk a line between his former strong support of protectionist tariffs and his claim that Trump's tariffs are "reckless" and bad for Ohio farmers and consumers.

Husted would have once been considered a standard mainstream Republican, similar to so many others who have won statewide in Ohio. This year though, he has to defend Trump's record and find a way to downplay the President's rhetoric. Recently, the issue of AI and data centers have flared up as a major issue with voters expressing extreme concern. Donald Trump has called it all a "hoax" and taken a very pro-AI and pro-data center stance. Husted is trying to put distance between himself and the White House on something like that during an election year.

The airwaves will be popular with all sorts of attack ads and SuperPAC spending. Democrats will try to put the focus on Husted's ethics including a bribery scandal from the time he was Lt. Governor.  Republicans will run ads focusing on decades of Brown's votes as a fairly liberal Democrat on Capitol Hill and will try to tie him to far left or socialist politicians running in other states or those who are vocal nationally They will push heavily on cultural issues such as transgender athletes in youth sports and "sex change operations" for children. It will be interesting to see if Brown retains his own political brand among the voters who have almost exclusively chosen Republicans in Ohio for years now.

Like the Governorship, this race looks like it could go either way, and both could be won by someone with less than 50 percent of the vote. Turnout will matter and both sides will try to get their bases motivated to vote. It is believed that Democrats have a significant edge in enthusiasm though. All things considered at the moment, Brown looks like he might be in a slightly better position to benefit from a disapproving midterm electorate and he while he would technically hold a different seat, he could find himself literally back in his old office.

Senate races predicted thus far: 

12 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

46 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Ohio Governor- Race of the Day

46 Days Until Election Day

Ohio Governor

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

The Buckeye State was once the most prized of all swing political areas. Then, it took a large turn towards the Republican Party and very must lost that status. This year though, Democrats are of the belief they can replicate what they did 20 years ago, if not by landslide margins, but by the ultimate results of winning some extremely high-profile races.

 

Outgoing Republican Governor Mike DeWine is wrapping up a career in politics that began 50 years ago. It has had periods of ups and downs and restarts, but as he is term-limited after eight years in Columbus, DeWine is leaving behind a party that has changed much and might not have a whole lot of use for him anymore. DeWine and his predecessor John Kasich, who also served eight years, are relics of a Republican past that is harder to recognize in the Trump era. The current Governor has had to make allowances to support the current President and other members of his party, but it is clear he was never really comfortable in doing so. He certainly cannot feel too good about the person who has been chosen by Republicans to succeed him, although he did issue a perfunctory endorsement once that outcome became clear.

 

In the political history of the United States, no person who identifies with a religion other than Christianity or Judaism has ever been elected Governor. The same can be said for the U.S. Senate, with the exception of one currently serving Buddhist from Hawai'i. This year Abudl El-Sayed a Muslim Democrat from Michigan is running for Senate and Vivek Ramaswamy a Hindu Republican is the nominee for Governor of Ohio.  Both men are young and have never held elective office. Both are also clearly quite intelligent and have the capacity to speak forcefully and persuasively. Both also are going to make it harder for their party to win races they should find easier to win because both have serious policy and character flaws. One day, a Muslim or a Hindu will be elected to high office and that will be a great thing for America of course. Will that person be someone with the personality or baggage of either of the candidates running this fall? Time will tell, but I have my doubts.

Sticking entirely now to the Ohio race, Ramaswamy was not someone well-known when 2023 began but he launched a longshot bid for the Republican Presidential nomination. Somehow, he managed to get all sorts of attention and perhaps even most amazingly did not piss off Donald Trump. That leads me at least to question if he was perhaps in that race to run political interference for Trump all along. Ramaswamy only finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses and quickly endorsed Trump, but he definitely made a name for himself among MAGA acolytes.

 

Still just 41 years old, Ramaswamy grew up in Ohio as the son of Indian immigrants, and who in the case of his father has not gone on to become a citizen. This is somewhat ironic of course because many on the right that the candidate appeals to believes that such a person, even as a natural born American citizen, should not be allowed to hold office. At Yale Law School, Ramaswamy was friendly with his fellow Cincinnati area student JD Vance, now obviously the Vice President. As a young man, Ramaswamy was at times a liberal and supporter of the Libertarian Party. Mostly though, he did not vote, and skipped casting a ballot between the years 2004 and 2020. By the time he became politically ambitious though, he had earned a lot of money by founding and running a pharmaceutical company and an investment firm. He went on to write some books that attracted notice in conservative circles, especially one in which he criticized "wokeness" and from that exposure he launched a Presidential bid, got into debates, attacked Republicans like Nikki Haley (a fellow Indian-American whom he pointed out did not use her given first name) , pleased his supporters, and largely angered many in the party who were not supporters.

 

Trump seemed to have a thing for the guy though and in the general election, Ramaswamy supported him, setting aside the rhetoric he had previously used about generational change. After the election, Trump picked Ramaswamy to go to Washington D.C. and join Elon Musk in leading the new "Department of Government Efficency." DOGE made all sorts of headlines although most of the political heat centered on Musk, the world' richest man, and also one of the most eccentric. I theorized that Musk probably should have felt insulted that Ramaswamy was considered even on the same level, because whatever one might think of Musk, he did have more substantial accomplishments in his life. Before long though, Vivek was on his way back to Ohio, where he had his eyes on the Governorship and Musk had the DOGE spotlight to himself, which did not exactly work out very well for anyone involved.

 
Trump was quick to endorse Ramaswamy for Governor giving him a huge leg up on anyone else who might want to become Governor. Many feared that the candidate could find a general election far more difficult than other Ohio Republicans had over the past several cycles. Slightly before that though, the Lt. Governor, Jon Husted had been planning to run to succeed DeWine, and had run for the job before joining that ticket in 2018, but he seemed to see the writing on the wall about how difficult a primary against Ramaswamy could be. Husted accepted an appointment by the Governor to go to the U.S. Senate and succeed JD Vance. That would involve running for the Senate this year and he is currently engaged in a tighly contested battle to win a full term. Before announcing for Governor, Ramaswamy seemed to definitely want Trump to get DeWine to name him to fill the Vance vacancy and many on the right were excited about the prospect. Husted got the job instead though, and that freed up the Governorship for a Ramaswamy campaign and Husted had a free path to a general election for Senate.

 

Other Republicans wanted to run for Governor, but eventually decided that taking on Trump's choice, and his money, would not be a great idea. The new Lt. Governor Jim Tressel, best known in the state as a college football head coach, was one of them. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who had run for Senate two years earlier decided he would take a political step down and run for State Auditor instead. The musical chairs of statewide Republicans continued as two candidates who were in the race before Ramaswamy got out in deference to him. State Treasurer Robert Sprague is running for Secretary of State instead and Attorney General Dave Yost, who tried to hang on in the race for a couple of months, left also and has since even resigned his statewide post.

 

In the May primary, Ramaswamy took 82 percent against Casey Putsch an automotive entrepreneur who ran a thinly veiled white nationalist campaign against his Indian-American Hindu opponent. Before the primary, candidates for Governor select their Lt. Governor runningmates, and Ramaswamy extended an olive branch to the political establishment in the state by selecting State Senate President Rob McColley, who is only a few months older than the 41 year old Gubernatorial nominee.

 

A Democrat was last elected Governor of Ohio in 2006 and many in the party could be forgiven for having lost a lot of optimism about statewide prospects. The last Democrat to win statewide for anything was Senator Sherrod Brown when he was reelected in 2018. He lost though as well, narrowly, in 2024, during the Presidential election with Trump at the top of the ticket. The biggest question was if Brown, now age 73, would attempt a political comeback. Many wanted him to run for Governor, thinking that he would be strongest path for him and the party, but he is now running for Senate once again and will take on the appointed Husted. That will be covered in the next edition of Race of the Day.

 

With Brown off the scene for Governor and into the race for Senate, that might have opened up a path for former Congressman Tim Ryan, a blue collar Democrat who represented an area during 20 years in Congress that swung heavily to Trump. Long speculated to run statewide, Brown launched a brief, longshot bid for President in the 2020 cycle. In 2022, Ryan was nominated for U.S. Senate and lost to Vance by six points. That was perhaps not a horrible showing during the Biden midterm cycle, but definitely a sign as to just how Republican Ohio had become. Ryan might have had his choice of running for whatever office Brown did not seek this year, but decided not to run for anything.

 

Now, with their top two options not running for Governor, the party quickly coalesced behind a third one, who did not face a primary challenge. A physician and researcher, Amy Acton is a Jewish-American who did not grow up in the suburbs like Ramaswamy, but from more hardscrabble Youngstown where she had at times a difficult childhood. Like her current opponent, Acton has never held office, but was appointed by Republican Governor DeWine to lead the state Health Department. She was there when the Covid pandemic took hold and like many other state and local bureaucrats around the country, became a familiar name and face to people at the time who were looking for information. Of course, the restrictions set in place were highly controversial in a lot of places and Acton started to receive threats. While she was popular among Democrats, she clashed with Republican leaders in the state and eventually resigned the post. She considered running for Senate in 2022, but passed on that and was running for Governor this cycle, even before Tim Ryan made his final decision. Her selected runningmate is David Pepper a former Hamilton County Commissioner who ran unsuccessfully for statewide office in the 2010. In 2014, he lost in a landslide to then Attorney General DeWine for that office. Later, Pepper took on the somewhat thankless task of chairing Ohio Democrats, before leaving in 2020. Another part of his past is that he was robbed at gunpoint and kidnapped around 2002.

 

A couple of weeks ago, Acton was the apparent target of an armed man when she was charged at during a political event. She was unhurt although several people were injured. Ramaswamy denounced the political violence, although some on the right predictably tried to claim it was all a staged event.The alleged assailant happens to be the brother of a former Republican political operative who had given large sums of money to Ramaswamy and others in the party. The brother of the attacker had recently resigned from a volunteer role after it was discovered he had a past arrest for child sexual abuse and Acton had raised this during the campaign. 

 

With polls showing Acton extremely competitive against Ramaswamy, there have been some pretty brutal ads on the airwaves against her. In 2019, when she was Ohio's Health Director, her daughter had called 911 to say that her mother was acting erratically after drinking and taking prescription medication and had to be talked out of attempting to drive. Decades earlier, Acton had also disclosed having received treatment for childhood trauma. Acton and her husband have tried to downplay the 2019 incident, in which they seemed to admit to having been arguing, but also saying she has never had a substance abuse problem, which is what all the Ramaswamy ads are claiming. There is no question that these ads have the potential to be powerful but there does not seem to be any great shift in the polls over the past several months, as the race has looked like a dead heat for a long time. Perhaps, voters are just not that interested this year or in this era about candidates' personal lives.

 

Ohio is definitely a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats so Ramaswamy should have an edge. This is a tough year though for Republicans in a lot of places, and many in Ohio who voted for Trump because of economic concerns or because they were told Haitian immigrants in one of their cities were "eating the dogs and eating the cats" (something DeWine had always pushed back against) might be disappointed by the past two years. Ramaswamy is someone who is seen as pretty much down the line a Trump supporter. He also has his own political narrative problems of maybe just not being the most likeable guy around. This seemed clear during his High School valedictorian speech where the teenager was speaking in the haughty tones he has continued to use and on the YouTube video, students and faculty look pretty openly annoyed by him.

Vivek has also made a lot of statements that just might offend a lot of "average Americans." He has claimed that companies hire foreign workers because American culture leads to folks basically being lazy or not as educated. In some ways, he might intellectually have a point about why Asian-Americans have proven to be so successful in the United States, but it is politically tone deaf if nothing else. I will say that I have to give Ramaswamy some credit because I recently came across a clip of him condemning antitsemitism by saying that many people were basically jealous of Jewish success in America (and around the world historically) and that these achievement levels are deserved because of focus placed on education and hard world. In that regard, there is similarity to what he has said about Asian-Americans, and including his fellow Indian-Americans. On some level this is ironic though, because Ramaswamy is someone who has openly tried to court so many on the fringe right, by leaning into 9/11 Truther conspiracy theories for example. It seems like as a general election candidate, he is trying to find a political balance and that might be difficult. The bottom line is that a lot of Trump voters, to whom white grievance has become practically a religion of its own, simply do not like the idea of a non-white, non-Christian, let alone Hindu Harvard and Yale grad lecturing them or having significant power. They may have applauded Vivek for his fights against the excesses of the woke left or his frequent denunciations of "transgenderism" or his previous strong opposition to U.S aid to Ukraine, but he may just be too pro-immigrant for them. This is all pretty timely because this past week a statewide nominee in Texas received all sorts of headlines and criticism when he Tweeted a photo of University of Texas students, who appeared to be Indian-American, celebrating the huge comeback victory the Longhorns had (against Ohio State.) It should be noted that the dudes in the photo all seem to be American citizens, some were born here, and all got into the state university because they had the best grades in High School and best test scores (not because of some immigration replacement theory to replace white folks) That blatantly racist post by Bo French has caused quite a chasm among Republicans, with many calling him out and others, including Trump, seeming to stand with him. Ramaswamy has apparently decided it is best to avoid this recent controversy altogether.

 

This is a clearly a very complex race. Acton has proven to be a fairly strong candidate, but doubts about her personal character and questions about that 911 call could perhaps be a problem. Ramaswamy is a very unconventional candidate for Governor. If the state is red enough, he will find a way to win, and nobody should really be surprised if he does. Right now, it is an open debate as far as I am concerned which race between this one and the Senate contest might be closer or more favorable to a Democrat upset. At the moment, it seems like if either stays Republican, it would probably be this one. Republicans will do all they can to try to portray Acton as a far-left liberal, even as she has taken steps as a general election candidate to break away from the far-left on such issues as voter ID and transgender athletes in sports. The thinking is that most of the folks on the far left are willing to be strategic enough to still vote for her.

 

A lot of Republicans around the country look at the recent election returns from Ohio and simply do not believe a candidate (at least one who has never won there before) can actually win as a Democrat. The online betting markets though are pointing to a slight edge at least for Acton. Of course, this election will be decided by votes and not "vibes." The polls, which while perhaps flawed are more scientific than Kalshi or  Polymarket, just over the past month show anything from a two points Ramaswamy lead to a three point Acton lead. This seems like a coin toss race.  Ohio will be choosing between a Jewish woman, who would be the first of either to be elected Governor and a Hindu man, who would be the first non-white Governor of the state in addition to the first of his religion obviously. Will some folks look at these choices and stay home or skip the race altogether? Will some on the right cast a protest vote for the Libertarian or maybe even an Independent on the ballot they might not know a lot about? In a race this close, any little bit may matter.

My hunch is that Ramaswamy comes close but cannot get enough of the MAGA diehards he needs to win. Some of that is about his skin color and religion while more of it may be about his personality and coming across as a "smart aleck" for lack of a better term. The Republican nominee is going to struggle to do as well with centrist voters as past winners like Kasich and DeWine have. He is perhaps just "too online" in his political identity, thinking that his base on social media is representative of the average voter. Republicans have recently won a couple Senate races with less than stellar Trump endorsed candidates. One of them is now Vice President and the other is fighting with his former son in-law, who is a very endangered Republican House Member. For Senate in 2022 and 2024, maybe the voters were willing to get on the MAGA train. In a race for Governor in 2026, perhaps not, and especially when the option for voters is seeing Vivek Ramaswamy on television for years to come.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

15 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

21 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Another Day Off

47 Days Until Election Day

The number 47 is pretty dishonorable today, so I might as well remain silent in protest..

No, seriously, there was just not enough time today to be as verbose as I would need to be about the Ohio Governor Race. Of course, I plan to cover that tomorrow. The days are ticking down and I envision a lot more busy ones this fall. I am confident I will get through all the states alphabetically but I hope to still have several days to break down all the U.S. House predictions in increments. Hopefully, I will not to fit them all in on October 31 and November 1. Plus, the Bears play on Election Night Eve this year!

North Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

48 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

This year, when Democrats are hoping to pick up several Senate seats, the most likely one looks like it could come from a southern state that Donald Trump has won three times. The situation in North Carolina might even look better than a couple of states where the party is trying to hold on to seats they currently control.

 

The seat in the Tar Heel State is open mostly because Donald Trump dislikes Republican Senator Thom Tillis and was prepared to oppose him in a primary. Had he done so, Tillis likely would have lost, so he saw the writing on the wall and withdrew last June from what was expected to be a bid for a third term. Tilis had twice won very close races in the state, both with just 49 percent of the vote. In 2014, he defeated a Democrat incumbent. In 2020, he looked like he might go out as a one-termer himself, until a sex scandal involving his Democrat opponent broke late in the campaign and that likely gave him another six years. Republicans have won most Senate races in North Carolina over the past couple generations, and Tillis kept that streak intact. If he were the Republican nominee now, this race would probably at least be a little bit closer. The mainstream Republican's vote against Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" last year was the last straw for the the current President though and he took to Truth Social late one night to blast the Senator. Tillis would soon say he would not run again and claimed he was leaning against it beforehand anyway. With the end of his political career before him, Tillis has gone on to be one of the more critical Republican Senators in speaking out against some Trump actions, and especially those of Administration officials. He continually claims that Trump is getting "bad advice" as he seems unwilling to totally break with the the man himself, but there is definite bad blood there. Still, Tillis was recently the deciding vote in confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General, after claiming he received some key concessions on Trump's desire for a weaponization fund and the claim that it is now dead. If someone were to ask the Senator directly, he would probably confirm that he thinks it will be unlikely a Republican will win the race to succeed him.

 

With Tillis gone from the race, the names of lots of Republicans were bandied about. One that quickly received a lot of notice was that of North Carolina native (and Florida resident) Lara Trump, the daughter in law of Donald. At the time she was the Republican National Committee Vice Chair and had been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate in the state four years earlier as well as a Florida possibility this cycle. Many Republicans across the country breathed a sigh of relief when the unproven Lara Trump, a true nepo in-law, announced she would not run. However, Trump's quick choice for the nomination might not have been close to the strongest Republican in the state either.

 

Attorney Michael Whatley had never run for office before, but he had a long history of being around Republican politics as a staffer and campaign official. As Chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, he became a key defender of Trump and then was rewarded in 2024 when Trump picked him to lead the RNC (with Lara Trump as the #2.) In November, the Republican won what had been considered a swing state and Trump was very pleased with Whatley's performance. That seemingly was enough for him to think that Whatley would be a strong enough candidate in his own right and that North Carolina  was red enough for him to win an open Senate seat against a far more proven Democrat opponent.

 

A few Republicans were already planning to challenge Tillis in the primary and did not leave the race. With Trump's support though, it was a given that Whatley would win the early March primary. Against six opponents, he took 65 percent, which to me seems a bit underwhelming for a candidate who had such advantages in the party. An attorney named Don Brown, who had finished fourth in a 2024 U.S. House primary, took second with 16 percent. Some right ring figures endorsed him, perhaps feeling that Whatley was too "establishment."

 

While Republicans have won most big federal races in North Carolina, Democrats have continued to have much stronger showing in state government contests, especially in races for Governor. This year, their candidate for Senate is likely the strongest possible politician his party could have put up. First elected Attorney General of North Carolina in 2000, Roy Cooper was politically cautious enough to pass up opportunities to run for Governor until he did so in 2016 and narrowly ousted in the incumbent Republican. For years later, Cooper won reelection by five points, both victories happening while Trump was carrying the state. With term limits in place, Democrats managed to win the Governorship against in 2024, by an even bigger margin. That is likely due to the fact that the Republican candidate, bombastic African-American MAGA supporter Mark Robinson, who was the surprise winner for Lt. Governor four years earlier was an incredibly weak and divisive candidate. That was the case before all sorts of internet message board stuff came to light that was shall we say extremely freaky in nature. Robinson denied he had said those things, but his candidacy was cooked and Democrat Josh Stein easily won. This matters more because it is believed that Roy Cooper was unwilling to be considered for Kamala Harris's running-mate that year because whenever he left the state, it would make Robinson the acting Governor. Many believed that Cooper would have been a strong asset to the national ticket as a somewhat moderate southerner with executive experience. With that in mind, he might have also been a strong general election Presidential candidate, but at the age of 69. that ship has largely passed. Nonetheless, Cooper, now out of elected office for the first time in 38 years, was recruited to run for Senate. Whether the former Governor truly wants to go to Washington D.C. to become a freshman Senator or if he just felt a need to do what is best for his party is perhaps open to interpretation.

 

Democrats already had an announced candidate for Senate. That was Wiley Nickel, who had won an open seat in the U.S. House in 2022. Republican state legislators (who often clashed with Cooper as Governor) withdrew the lines for 2024 though and Nickel did not have a path to reelection so instead he said he would run for Senate in 2026. He might have been a credible statewide candidate, but the appeal of Cooper was far stronger and left Nickel in a position of not being able to raise much money until a decision by the former Governor was made. When Cooper did run, Nickel had no real choice but to step aside and instead decided to run for Wake County District Attorney. He is unopposed in that race this November, and will have to consider the new job a consolation prize from what he had thought would be a longer career on Capitol Hill. In the meantime, Cooper took 92 percent in the primary for Senate against five little known opponents.

 

From the outset, polls have shown Cooper ahead of Whatley in the general election by various margins. Republicans have insisted that the conservative nature of North Carolina will cause the race to tighten and things will look better once voters "get to know" the Republican nominee. Frankly, Whatley comes across as far from any sort of dynamic or appealing political figure. He simply is a yes man for Trump, and while there are a substantial number of voters who want exactly that, there are probably not going to be anywhere near enough of them to carry the day this year. Today, Trump appeared at a campaign rally in North Carolina and promised victory for his hand-chosen candidate, but few in the party are said to actually believe Whatley can pull it out and major financial assistance is unlikely to happen.

 

This situation has Whatley and his party trying to throw whatever they can against Cooper, targeting his record as Governor, and a particular issue during the Covid pandemic early days when he released inmates from state prisons. Cooper, who left office with fairly high approval numbers, said he was ordered to do that in 2020 by a judge and that other states, and the federal government under Trump also did the same. Democrats are also playing rough, with ads claiming that Whatley promoted a child sex offender to positions within the North Carolina Republican Party. The nominee claims that individual was merely an unpaid volunteer who was already involved before Whatley became party chair.

 

Politics are polarized these days and it would be foolish to suggest that a lot of North Carolina voters are simply not going to vote for anyone who is a Democrat. This open race is unlikely to be a blowout, but Cooper has some major advantages and it would come as quite a surprise if he did not win this race that many in his party are already putting in the bank. For now, I am cautiously calling it "Leans Democrat", but this contest might just be on the edge of a double digit margin pickup for Cooper, as Thom Tillis looks forward to retirement, and what I think will be years of being even more negative publicly towards Donald Trump.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

11 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

45 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

New York Governor- Race of the Day

49 Days Until Election Day

New York Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

So much of our politics nationally over the past decade has focused on the Empire State. While it is still one of the largest population centers of the country, it had seemed to fall in influence towards the end of the 20th Century. Today though, so many national leaders are New Yorkers, including the person in the Oval Office, even though he has formally decamped to Florida.

Democrats have won the last five elections for Governor in New York, many by very wide margins.The 2022 contest turned out to be closer than expected though, with the sitting Governor, who had yet to be elected to the post in her own right taking 53 percent of the vote. Two years later, Donald Trump took 43 percent, after not having won more than 38 percent in his previous runs. That was not nearly enough to win, but the Republican made substantial gains among minority voters in the state, especially in the New York City area. Those might be related to cultural issues, concerns over the financial costs of mass immigration during the Biden years, or fear of crime. It looked like there was the beginnings of realignment among voter groups who were not traditional Republicans. All that means that the election for Governor this year will probably not be a total blowout, and it could even wind up closer than some expect now, but the nature of this race being in a difficult midterm environment for Trump's party, with a lot of his first-time voters perhaps still unsatisfied with the national status quo, should have the Democrat in position to continue the streak.

Kathy Hochul, once briefly a somewhat moderate Democrat Congresswoman from western New York, took the oath of office as Governor in 2021, the first woman in the state to do so. For the previous six and a half years, she had been Lt. Governor under the nationally prominent Andrew Cuomo and had been elected twice on a ticket with him. While serving in his third term though, Cuomo, once thought of a serious Presidential hopeful, saw his political career implode on a variety of fronts, especially related to sexual harassment and alleged assault of women. He would eventually resign under great protest, and that made Hochul the Governor. By that time, the two had basically not spoke in some time, and she went into office without much preparation. The theme of a New York Governor and Lt. Governor, who always happen to be of the same party and are usually elected together, not getting along has become a persistent theme in New York politics, especially amongst a male and a female.

With the power of incumbency, Hochul easily won a 2022 primary, in which she was challenged from both her left and her right and then survived in a difficult political environment for Democrats. As a statewide candidate, in a party dominated by the New York City metropolitan area, Hochul had moved a good deal to the left herself.  In 2025, the political heat was on the Governor as Democrats competed for Mayor of New York City and the leading candidate was a controversial very left-wing candidate named Zohran Mamdani, who captured the party's nomination. For all the issues surrounding the young candidate's experience and views, he wound up facing none other than Andrew Cuomo, who continued to run as an Independent after losing the primary. Hochul initially tried to stay out of the fray, but came to endorse Mamdani, the nominee of her party, even as many Democrats supported the former Governor or remained officially neutral. Hochul seemed to do this as a way to blunt a potential primary challenge from Mamdani's ardent supporters. In any event, he wound up being a strong campaigner for the most part and Cuomo seemed well past his prime, and New York City moved considerably to the left. There is certainly something to be said there about the internal politics of NYC, as Mamdani has succeeded in influencing primaries this year. Republicans have hoped that her endorsement of Mamdani and his presence as a big-time openly socialist officeholder will have a negative effect on Hochul's reelection effort. While it is certainly true that the Mayor (justifiably so) generates much heat from a lot of traditional Democrat groups in the city, his poll numbers, at least thus far, are fairly decent.

For a time, Hochul was facing a primary challenge. While many prominent Democrats stayed out, she happened to be challenged by her own Lt. Governor, whom she personally selected to run with her in 2022. Such a thing is fairly unprecedented in politics. In fact, Antonio Delgado, an Afro Latino Congressman, when selected, was already Hochul's second Lt. Governor. For about seven months, the vacant spot had been held by the man she selected, also an African-American. Brian Benjamin, resigned after being indicted on federal wire fraud and bribery charges, which were later dropped by the government. Once in office though, Hochul and Delgado had a falling out, which seems quite common in Albany. Delgado, the first Latino to hold statewide office, announced he would not run for Lt. Governor again. Hochul basically said, that was fine, she was looking for someone else to run with anyway. Then, Delgado announced a primary challenge, and was seen as to the left of the Governor. Had she not endorsed Mamdani, there might have been a concerted effort to defeat her. Mamandi though did not endorse her, likely out of payback to Hochul, and after he failed to win the endorsement of a liberal third party, Delgado ended his challenge and the Governor was on her way to officially to November.

In New York, candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor are nominated on a ticket together. Both candidates had geography in mind for starters. Shortly before he ended his bid, the New York City area resident Delgado had picked India Walton, an openly socialist African-American woman. In 2021, she had defeated the incumbent Mayor of Buffalo in a Democrat primary before that African-American incumbent defeated her as a write-in during the general election. Hochul, from the Buffalo area, also picked an African-American runningmate once again, in this case, a fellow woman. The party's current nominee for Lt. Governor is Adrienne Adams who last year ended three years as Speaker of the New York City Council. Last year, she was among the several Democrats who ran for Mayor, and was eliminated in the primary. The Mayor of New York, also an African-American man named Adams, bypassed the primary, and tried to run as an Independent before ending his reelection bid. NYC politics sure were crazy last year and are likely to remain that way.

The Republican contest for Governor also produced a nominee without the need for a June primary contest, but the build up to it was of course interesting and dominated in many ways by Donald Trump. For one thing, Lee Zeldin, the Jewish-American former Congressman who had run a credible race for Governor against Hochul four years ago might have seemed like a strong contender for the party again, but Trump tapped him to lead the EPA, taking him off the New York political scene. Congressman Mike Lawler, a very ambitious member from a swing district on Long Island, with a penchant for many, many television interviews, was definitely interested in running for Governor, but Trump posted on Truth Social that Lawler was needed to stay in the House, so that effectively killed his nascent statewide candidacy. Lawler is currently running for reelection and will be extremely lucky to win this year.

When he made his move on Lawler, Trump seemed to favor the candidacy of Congresswoman Elise Stefanik from Upstate. He definitely owed her. Once a mainstream Republican, who was considered moderate on many issues, Stefanik had a massive political transformation to become an outspoken MAGA warrior. After his 2024 victory, Trump picked her to be U.N. Ambassador. The confirmation process dragged on for months though and Trump eventually pulled her nomination because one of his male Administration figures, who had gotten into some ethical trouble, needed a soft landing and the U.N. looked like the right place. At the time Trump also said he did not want to lose her vote in Congress, while also all but conceding that her strongly red district might be competitive in a general election.

The stage seemed set for Stefanik to run for Governor in 2026 though and she was all but announced and planning to run hard against Hochul by tying her to the socialist Mamdani. Trump, who had been calling the new Mayor a Communist for months while Mamdani was calling Trump a "fascist" (and let us face it they are both correct) then went to the Oval Office for a high profile meeting. In a politically shocking turn of events, Trump seemed somewhat smitten by Mamdani and his political starpower during a photo-op. He made comments saying that Mamdani would basically do just fine as Mayor and suddenly the MAGA narrative about him in advance for the 2026 Gubernatorial race was vanished. One can hardly imagine the reaction that Stefanik must have been having watching this unfold. Very quickly after she said she would not run for Governor and would not seek reelection to Congress either. The mother of a young child was stepping back from politics and elected office. Serves her right. "Thank you, Mr. President."

Even before screwing over Stefanik, Trump had equivocated on her candidacy, saying that while he liked her, he also was fond of another contender. Like 2022 nominee Zeldin, Bruce Blakeman is a Jewish Republican from Long Island. In 2021, Blakeman defeated a Democrat incumbent to become Nassau County executive. This was not an unsubstantial political victory and he was easily reelected in 2025. Before that Blakeman had a long history in New York politics, where he had developed a relationship with Trump.  (His ex-wife is married to Paul McCartney which probably also impresses Trump.) Back in 1998, Blakeman lost by a wide margin as the GOP nominee for State Comptroller and the next year even lost his seat in the county legislature. He rebounded as an attorney and political appointee under a Republican Governor and in 2010 finished a distant third in a three way Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat. That November, he stayed on the ballot as the nominee of the Tax Revolt Party and won a grand total of 4,522 votes statewide, solidifying a last place finish. In 2014, Blakeman lost an open U.S. House race by six points.

All of this shows that Bruce Blakeman has not exactly been a winner in New York politics, so it is somewhat amazing he has had recent success in Nassau County, a once solidly GOP area, that had trended heavily towards Democrats. The fact that Republicans have been making a comeback there is a sign of dissatisfaction with Democrats from New York City to Albany. This factor makes Blakeman a reasonably credible nominee for Governor, as he is about to turn 71. One can even make the case that Blakeman, who might currently have a more moderate profile than Stefanik and comes from a more politically competitive area, is at least a slightly stronger general election candidate. Not having to compete in an expensive primary was also a benefit. To join his ticket, Blakeman selected Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood. Very few people in the state have probably ever heard of him, but he would fit along with a tough on crime political narrative.

Blakeman claims the race against Hochul is competitive. Some Republican sanctioned polls sort of back that up. I am more skeptical and it is not because Hochul is any sort of amazing political talent. Perhaps finding it difficult to run on economic matters, with voters blaming the Trump Administration, Blakeman seems to be be joining other Republicans in pushing in on cultural issues. He recently attacked Hochul for wearing a head covering at a Muslim cultural center. Somehow, I do not think he would have made as big of a deal if she wore a head covering at an Orthodox Jewish synagogue. There clearly is a concerted effort on behalf of Republicans nationwide, and including New York, to be very critical of Muslim political influence, both in the wake of the anniversary of 9/11, and with the Muslim (and virulently anti-Israel Mamdani, who has a wife who expressed glee online about the October 7 attacks) as Mayor of New York City. After the June primary, when a more left-wing Jewish Democrat defeated a Jewish incumbent in a race when Israel had been an issue, the Gubernatorial candidate compared the Jewish Congressional nominee to a Nazi collaborator.  Blakeman, who would have once been considered a moderate east coast Republican, has made several comments since becoming nominee that seems to reach into the anti-immigrant territory and even controversial theories about racial "replacement." Despite being the clear underdog in this race, Blakeman has been saying that if he loses it will be because Democrats "cheated" or "stole" the election. 

For whatever reason, Blakeman seems to be trying to appeal more to an audience of one, a guy who cannot even vote in New York anymore (which has nothing to do with his having been convicted of a felony there a couple years ago) than to New York swing voters. Still though, politics are so polarized he will get a significant chunk of the vote regardless. A mainstream challenger to Hochul and the status quo in New York would have an opportunity in this race.. well, maybe not quite as much in this particular cycle.

While some online MAGA types seem insistent that Hochul is in serious political trouble, I think that when the dust settles, she will have won a second full term by at least 10 points.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

14 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

20 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

NFL Week 1 Results and Week 2 Games

 50 Days Until Election Day

It was a very exciting Week 1. There is no time today to talk about the New York Gubernatorial race. Hopefully, tomorrow! 

 

Week 1

 

1. Patriots (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0) L 1

 

2. 49ers (0-0) vs. Rams (0-0) in East Melbourne, Australia W 1

 

 

 

3. Bears (0-0) at Panthers (0-0) W 2

4. Buccaneers (0-0) at Bengals (0-0) W 3

5. Saints (0-0) at Lions (0-0) L 2

6. Bills (0-0) at Texans (0-0) W 4

7. Ravens (0-0) at Colts (0-0) L 3

8. Browns (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0) W 5

9. Falcons (0-0) at Steelers (0-0) W 6

10. Jets (0-0) at Titans (0-0) L 4

11. Cardinals (0-0) at Chargers (0-0) L 5

12. Dolphins (0-0) at Raiders (0-0) L 6

13. Packers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0) W 7

14. Commanders (0-0) at Eagles (0-0) L 7

15. Cowboys (0-0) at Giants (0-0) L 8

 

16. Broncos (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0) L 9

 

Week 1 and Overall Results: 7-9 (44%)

_________________________________________________________

 

Week 2

 

Current Results: 7-9 (44%)

 

1. Lions (1-0) at Bills (1-0)

 

 

 

2. Panthers (0-1) at Falcons (0-1)

3. Saints (0-1) at Ravens (1-0)

4. Vikings (1-0) at Bears (1-0)

5. Bengals (1-0) at Texans (0-1)

6. Steelers (1-0) at Patriots (0-1)

7. Packers (0-1) at Jets (1-0)

8. Browns (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-1)

9. Eagles (1-0) at Titans (0-1)

10. Jaguars (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)

11. Raiders (1-0) at Chargers (0-1)

12. Seahawks (1-0) at Cardinals (1-0)

13. Commanders (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)

14. Dolphins (0-1) at 49ers (1-0)

15. Colts (0-1) at Chiefs (1-0)

 

16. Giants (1-0) at Rams (0-1) 

 

New Mexico U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 51 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan faced a somewhat competitive contest in 2020 as he moved from the House to the Senate, but should have a far easier time six years later in winning a second term.

 

A distant relative of the outgoing Governor of New Mexico, also a former U.S. House colleague, Senator Lujan has been around politics all of his life, as his late father was one of the most influential political figures in the state. He served six terms in the House and appeared to be on the Leadership track before he won an open U.S. Senate seat, becoming one of the few Latinos in the upper chamber. In 2022, when he was still just 49, Lujan suffered a stroke. After several weeks of treatment, he seemed to make a full recovery.

 

On June 2, Lujan took 84 percent among Democrat in a primary. For a time, it looked like he would not even face a general election opponent, as Republicans had a hard time finding a candidate willing to run besides one who had been disqualified for ballot requirements. It appears unclear to me if Independent or third party candidates have qualified for the November ballot, but Republicans were able to nominate one via write-in.

 

A businessman and past unsuccessful candidate for lower offices with the appropriate name of Larry Marker received a required number of write-in votes in the Republican Primary (whether cast by marker or not) to make the ballot against the incumbent. That is not an insignificant achievement for Marker, but this year, in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002 and at a hefty financial disadvantage, there may not be much more to accomplish. Perhaps, now that he is actually on the ballot, he can change his name to Larry Vote Puncher. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

10 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

44 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Mexico Governor- Race of the Day

 52 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

New Mexico will elect a new Governor this year and the nominees do not agree on much but they do share common ground in saying the state's name must remain intact. They are not interested in Donald Trump's (trolling) suggestion that the Land of Enchantment become "New America."

 

This is a state that is not a blowout for the party and there is definite political competitiveness in the state, but New Mexico has mostly elected Democrats in recent decades and that is probably not going to change this year. However, there are some factors at play in this particular race that makes me cautious to at this point classify the outcome as "Likely."

 

Incumbent Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is not eligible to seek a third term. The Lujan family has been in New Mexico for many generations and active in both parties. The Governor's background as a Latina had some talk about her as a potential Vice Presidential candidate in 2020 but she did not appear to be seriously considered for that and also was passed up after interviewing with the incoming Biden Administration about the position of Secretary of HHS. She then apparently turned down the post of Interior Secretary to remain as Governor, while another woman from her state was tapped for that role. Like her predecessor as Governor, Republican Susana Martinez, also a Latina, Lujan Grisham has faced some embarrassing headlines about personal behavior. In this case, Governor Lujan Grisham paid a settlement to a male former staffer who accused her of sexual battery.

 

This year, New Mexico seems prepared to elect its third consecutive female Governor and in this case, it is the woman who took the job as Joe Biden's Interior Secretary that the current Governor passed up. Democrat Deb Haaland would become the nation's first female Native American Governor. A former State Party Chair, she was elected to two terms in the U.S. House from a blue leaning area of the state, before resigning to join the Cabinet. In running for Governor, she was considered the early frontrunner and her presence in the race likely kept some other big name Democrats out, including sitting Lt. Governor Howie Morales. Shortly after announcing her candidacy early last year, Haaland divorced the husband she married in 2021.

It was far from a complete coronation for Haaland however leading up to the June primary. For one thing, Ken Miyagishima, the former Mayor of Las Cruces, who is both Mexican and Japanese ancestry challenged her, but then dropped out of the primary to run as an Independent. While he failed to make the ballot, he has since endorsed the Republican nominee for the general election.

Haaland would face one opponent though in Bernalilo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. A cowboy hat wearing Jewish American, Bregman is also the father of MLB veteran Alex Bregman, who is currently having a great second half for the Chicago Cubs, after signing with my favorite team in the offseason. The prosecutor ran as a tough on crime alternative to the more liberal Haaland and with local politics playing some sort of role, was able to claim the endorsement of some Native American tribes, who favored him over his Native American opponent. Bregman tried to get the frontrunner to debate and was only able to be given one opportunity to do so.  It seems like the contest between the two got a bit personal as well. The outcome was not close. Haaland took 72 percent of the vote and while Bregman conceded on primary night, he made it clear he would not be issuing a formal endorsement of the nominee.

 

After a withdrawal and a disqualification, the final Republican Gubernatorial field featured three candidates. In a somewhat rare case for a Republican primary these days, none of the candidates seemed to emphasize personal support for Donald Trump too much. The winner with 47 percent was Gregg Hull, who had just completed 12 years as the Mayor of Rio Rancho. Businessman Doug Turner took 37 percent, a much better showing than his third place finish in the 2010 primary. While Turner was perhaps considered the most moderate candidate, he seemed to have the most support among Trump's ardent backers. In third place with 16 percent was Duke Rodriguez, the former state Human Services Department Secretary. In this race, he had this endorsement of his boss, former Republican Governor Gary Johnson, who has since become a Libertarian and ran as their 2016 Presidential nominee. After the primary, Johnson endorsed the Republican nominee Hull, which I think is at least somewhat of a significant development in the state.

 

This November, New Mexico voters will vote for a ticket that includes the nominee for Lt. Governor, In the state, those candidates are chosen separate from the Gubernatorial primary, but then the two run together. The Republican nominee is State Senator David Gallegos who adds some Hispanic diversity to the ticket. In the thee way primary, he took just short of 50 percent, 12 points ahead of attorney Aubrey Blair Dunn, the son of former Public Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr., who in office switched from Republican to Libertarian, an historic first. The younger Dunn had run as the Libertarian nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and took five percent.

The Democrat nomination turned out to be a bit more complicated. The easy primary winner with 80 percent for Lt. Governor had been Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. She defeated African-American State Senator Harold Pope Jr. Shortly after the primary though, the nominee withdrew citing health issues. Haaland inferred she should have the right to select the replacement for Toulouse Oliver but technically the decision rested with Central Committee of the state party. The bypassed primary runner up Pope and some others before choosing another female statewide office holder. Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, who was being term limited for that office, had started off running in the primary for Lt. Governor but then dropped out due to her husband's cancer diagnosis. After Toulouse Oliver left due to health issues of her own, Garcia Richard said her husband's situation had improved and she was willing to run and serve, leaving both major party nominees with Latino Lt. Governor candidates, in a state that will this year elect its first non-Latino Governor since 1998.

 

Polls are showing Haaland is ahead in this race for Governor, but not by a huge margin. Conventional wisdom is that she should win and I will be very surprised if she does not. However, the candidate has a reputation of being pretty far to the left and based on the defection of someone like Miyagishima and the lack of full support from Bregman, could still have some divisions in her party that need to be healed. Hull is a credible candidate, but any Republican running this year in New Mexico still faces an uphill climb.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

13 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

19 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

New Jersey U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 53 Days Until Election Day

 

New Jersey U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

On this 25th anniversary of the most tragic and historically substantive day in American history, we can all feel grateful that we have the opportunity and the freedom to discuss electoral politics in the same sort of way that Americans have throughout the generations. For any of us above a certain age, the events of that day are seared into our memory. It is hard to believe that a full quarter of a century has passed and that sort of milestone makes those memories and emotions even tougher to dwell on this year. America has endured though and we have been nothing short of lucky to not have experienced anything close to the level of that day since. Nonetheless, we must never forget.

 

It just so happens that I will be discussing New Jersey today, a state that certainly lost many of its citizens on 9/11/01 and felt the full weight in a way that perhaps only neighboring New York could claim. It is also a state that last year had a high profile race for Governor that appeared to be competitive, after a stronger than expected Republican showing in 2024, but ultimately produced a very solid win for the Democrat, cementing the state's image as being quite blue. There is probably some political hangover in the Garden State this year at least in terms of the one statewide race, which does not seem to hold much drama.

 

Many though will be looking at what Senator Cory Booker intends to do after this election. Recently married for the first time, the incumbent is probably more focused on building on his national profile than a race back at home. Booker first came to political prominence as the Mayor of Newark, where he had a penchant to make headlines. He set his eyes on the United States Senate and likely scared the elderly incumbent Democrat out of another campaign. When that Senator passed away, Booker won a special election to replace him, although the first African-American Senator in New Jersey history became to be seen as a polarizing figure statewide. The next year though, Booker easily won a full term and then a 2020 reelection. 

 

Before that most recent Senate win, Booker ran for President in the 2020 cycle and initially was thought of as one of the leading candidates. A gifted speaker, the Senator reminded a lot of people of Barack Obama, and spoke of how he hoped to be a unifying figure and the "politics of love." Primary voters looking to unseat Donald Trump were not really into buying that though, and candidates to Booker's left received more support and others, such as Joe Biden, looked to be more electable for those who had that concern. After falling behind in the polls and not qualifying for the main debates, Booker suspended his Presidential campaign before the first votes were cast.

 

Running for a third full Senate term, Booker is being opposed by Republican attorney Justin Murphy, who about 25 years ago was the Deputy Mayor of Tabernacle Township.  Since then, he lost a couple of U.S. House primaries and in 2024 finished in a distant third place in a Republican Senate primary. This year though, in a primary that did receive much attention, Murphy benefited from being seen as the most conservative candidate in a party increasingly dominated in primaries by MAGA supporters. In June, Murphy took 33 while three other opponents all took double digits. The second place contender was State Trooper, Iraq War venteran and recently defeated Assembly candidate Richard Tabor, an African-American who took 29 percent. In third place was the candidate thought to be the strongest potential challenger to Booker, although that might not have been saying much in this field. Former local tv news reporter Alex Zdan won 27 percent. He had run for but dropped out of the 2024 Republican Senate contest. None of these candidates were seen as even being on par with some recent New Jersey Senate nominees, who did not come that close to winning. The Murphy (who is not related to the Murphy who just finished up last year as New Jersey's Democrat Governor) campaign does not appear to be substantial financially in any way and he seems well to the right of where most New Jersey voters are.

 

Once Booker wins another term, there is perhaps some possibility that he is interested in replacing Chuck Schumer of New York as his party's leader. A ton of Democrats want Schumer gone from that role, even if he helps them capture a majority, but that message may not have gotten through to the current leader. Booker made a ton of headlines in 2025 when he took part in the longest Senate speech in history, railing against the Trump Administration. Exact details about how he handled a need to go to the bathroom were not directly addressed, perhaps for the best. This did a lot to put Booker back in the good graces of party activists who might have somewhat forgotten about him since his Presidential run.  Another issue though is that Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen is someone who is openly plotting a bid for Leader (although he says he might possibly run for President in 2028), and a lot of progressive activists seem to like the idea of Van Hollen as Leader, (but probably not for President.)

 

So, there is a chance that Booker might run for President himself again. If as expected there is a large field, it might make sense. There will definitely be a lane for a black candidate to consolidate support leading into the first contest in South Carolina. Right now, the only other African-American possibilities for Democrats seem to Kamala Harris and Maryland Governor Wes Moore. Booker has recently increased his television appearances and has taken some steps to try to break away from his long-standing strong support of Israel, which is more politically problematic for Democrats these days. Like so many mainstream Democrats on that issue, Booker will have to adjust his positions and his rhetoric if Israel happens to turn aside (as I hope happens) Benjamin Netanyahu before the 2028 Presidential primaries.

 

Right now though as he contemplates his next moves, Booker has few worries at home.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 9 D  (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

43 D (34 holdover, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Hampshire U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 54 Days Until Election Day

 

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

If Democrats are to have any chance of winning control of the Senate this year, they absolutely must hold New Hampshire. A setback here would be an epic political catastrophe and in a state that seems poised to once again elect a Republican Governor, things are currently looking pretty close. However, the Live Free or Die State is a place that has tended to favor Democrats in federal elections.

 

As she approaches her 80th birthday, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is stepping aside. She has served in the Senate since 2009 and has spent most of her adult life in politics. Before her election to the Senate, in her second try, she had spent six years as Governor between 1997 and 2003. Her most recent reelection wound up being easy in 2020 but some of Shaheen's votes in recent years upset the progressive base of her party and many were happy to see her go. Despite this, her daughter Stefany, won a crowded primary this past Tuesday, in which she ran to the left of her closest competitor, and now seems on track to be the next Shaheen to join Congress next year, once her mother retires.

 

When Shaheen made her retirement announcement last April, party insiders immediately looked towards Congressman Chris Pappas. He is looking to become the first male Democrat elected to the Senate from New Hampshire over 50 years as well as the first openly gay male nationwide to serve in the Senate. Pappas solidly won one of the two's Congressional districts in a 2018 open race. His race in 2020 was a bit closer, but he had less difficulty in '22 and '24, the former being a win over future White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

 

Pappas became the heavily favored frontrunner for his party but in the latter stages of the primary, some attention went to Karishma Manzur, a Bangladesh born medical scientist and party activist. She ran to the left of Pappas and seemed to have some momentum during a cycle where several left-wing candidates have won primary upsets. While few expected Pappas to actually lose, there was much interest in how low of a vote percentage he might slip to. While some prominent liberals endorsed Manzur, Pappas touted among others, the support of 1988 Presidential nominee and his fellow New England Greek, Michael Dukakis. On Tuesday, Pappas won on Tuesday 65-33, perhaps exceeding expectations by a bit. 

 

For Republicans in this open race, hopes immediately turned to Chris Sununu.The son of a former Governor, Sununu won the Governorship in 2016, even as other Democrats were carrying New Hampshire. He was reelected and remained popular every two years until not seeking another term in 2024. During this time, Sununu had already resisted attempts to get him to run for U.S. Senate or for President. At times he went much further than most Republicans in criticizing Donald Trump, but would also go on television and offer some excuses as well and he seemed to be trying to have it both ways. The former Governor would have made a formidable candidate and many Republicans nationwide were disappointed when he once again took a pass.

However, before Chris Sununu, there was John Sununu, the elder namesake of their politician father. At age 62. a decade older than his now more famous brother, John is attempting to become one of the rare people in American history to make a return to the U.S. Senate after having lost his seat. This would also seemingly mark the longest time between stints. In 1996, Sununu was elected to the U.S. House and served for three terms. Then in 2002, with the private support of the Bush White House (back when a President opposing an incumbent of his own party was quite rare), he knocked off an incumbent Republican Senator in a primary. It turned out to be a good cycle for Republicans and he won by four points over then Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Six years later, the election of 2008 turned out to be far worse for Republicans. Shaheen won a rematch by 7 points and has served since. Sununu turned down an attempt to make it a best of three in 2014 and seemed content to continue life in the private sector, but he ran again in 2026. A State Senator who had been running decided to endorse the former U.S. Senator.

 

Sununu would not have the Republican field to himself however. While most of the candidates were little known figures or perennial political losers, his main opponent happened to be another former United States Senator. There was a period of time in early 2010 when Scott Brown was the biggest political story in the country. Coming from a dysfunctional youth, Brown had an interesting life story as an Army National Guard veteran and one time scantily clad magazine pinup model, who became a Republican State Senator in Massachusetts. The father of an American Idol semifinalist who was also a prominent girls' basketball player in the state, Brown shocked the world when he won a special election to fill the seat of the late Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. This came as a huge boost to Republicans nationally when they badly needed a win and the telegenic Brown, a moderate, was seen as perhaps a future President in some quarters.

 

Brown had won over a flawed Democrat campaigner though in that special election and in 2012 when he sought a full term, Massachusetts reverted to its political norm and he lost his seat to Elizabeth Warren by eight points. He went to do some work for Fox News and openly flirted with a future Presidential run, but he also had a vacation home in neighboring New Hampshire. Rather than attempting to make a quick political comeback in Massachusetts, Brown backed up his ambitions and took full-time residence in New Hampshire. In 2014, a strong year for Republicans, he took about half of the total vote in a crowded primary for a Senate seat and then came within three points of beating incumbent Senator Shaheen. Despite continuing to reside in New Hampshire, Brown tried to claim a state pension in Massachusetts. To the surprise of many, considering his past moderate and establishment ties, he became a relatively early endorser of Donald Trump in 2016, went on to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa and started dying his hair darker. (John Sununu has less hair than he did back in his earlier political career.)  In 2022, Brown's wife Gayle Huff Brown, a longtime television news figure in Boston came in third place in a Republican primary in the race Karoline Leavitt won before she lost in November to Pappas.

 

By the time Scott Brown entered another race for Senate in 2026, he was considered a political has-been who had no real chance to win a race in New Hampshire. Republican leaders, while not able to get Chris Sununu to run, were able to get John Sununu (the younger) to do so and were also able to get Donald Trump to issue an endorsement. This was an interesting development, considering Chris Sununu had at times been critical of Trump and had actively campaigned in his state for Nikki Haley in her 2024 run against him. More so, Scott Brown had been a more vocal Trump supporter and was one of the Ambassadors he nominated. Brown stayed in the race and claimed he was the true conservative alternative, but the Trump endorsement was a big boost to Sununu, who welcomed it in terms of the primary, but also tried to not even acknowledge it much as it was seen as a hindrance in a general election. Sununu the even more distant in time former Senator, won an eight way primary, defeating the other former Senator he never got to serve with 68-27. Bob Smith, the one time mercurial New Hampshire Republican Senator, who lost a primary to Sununu in 2002 and who also lost in a 2014 primary to Brown, backed Brown in this race. I guess that makes sense.

 

The general election is now set and it features a matchup that has been anticipated for months. The polls throughout have seemed close. I wonder how many non-political junkies have some confusion and think Sununu is his younger brother, the recent Governor they liked, instead of the politician who last ran a race and lost 18 years ago. At least one television report on this race, used the wrong Sununu in a photo. I think I made a joke or two about Tito Jackson trying to appeal to Michael Jackson fans. To be fair, Pappas also shares a name with Chris Sununu, their first name. Maybe there is just a lot of confusion there.

 

Conventional wisdom has been that Pappas is a strong young candidate who will have the edge in this state this year. I happen to agree, but one has to look at the most current polls and recognize this race is close. A couple of them are showing a virtual dead heat and that has a lot of Republicans looking for any bit of good news this cycle excited. I think that there are some backers of Pappas's more left-wing primary opponent who will have to come to terms with supporting the more establishment choice. I keep honing in on the factor of base Democrats being very down on any current sitting member of the U.S House this cycle. Another feature of this race, even if it might only matter for a point or two, is that a frequent Independent candidate popular with libertarians and others on the right is on the ballot again this year after some legal wrangling. The vote for that businessman, Aaron Day, likely cost a Republican incumbent, who is now Governor, her Senate seat in 2016.

 

Just having a Sununu on the ballot is probably a big positive for Republicans, but it is not the one who might really have a chance here. I think that if Pappas does not make any major missteps, this race is probably still his to lose. It may be a competitive single digit contest, but in this particular cycle, I think any Republican would be hard pressed to flip a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump has always lost general elections in to begin with.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 8 D  (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

42 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Hampshire Governor- Race of the Day

 55 Days Until Election Day

New Hampshire Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Every two years, the Granite State elects a Governor. Only one other state can claim that. It has also been a pretty good political assumption that a new Governor will be given more leeway from the voters the first time they are up for reelection after just their first two years. In 2024, Republican Kelly Ayotte was elected Governor by 10 points, even as Donald Trump was losing the state to Kamala Harris by three points. These are major reasons why she should be considered a strong favorite to win a second term. At the same time though, national wave elections, for one side of the other, tend to be felt strongly in New Hampshire, radiating down to the hundreds of legislative districts that exist in the small state. If this is indeed a very bad cycle for Republicans, Ayotte will have to work even harder and this race could become a sleeper. For now though, the incumbent seems to be a good political fit.

Democrats have indeed won every major federal election in New Hampshire for the past several cycles, while the state has been more willing to elect a Republican as Governor. This year, there will be an open Senate seat that Democrats were counting on but may have to fight it out to the end, plus an open Congressional seat in a somewhat competitive district. 

Ayotte was the last Republican to win a Senate race in the state. In 2010, a strong wave year for the GOP,  she won an open Senate seat with 60 percent of the vote. A promising young political figure, who first gained notice as the legislature appointed Attorney General of New Hampshire, Ayotte looked primed for a long career on Capitol Hill. Things changed dramatically though in 2016, when with Donald Trump leading the Republican ticket, she lost her Senate seat to the state's sitting Democrat Governor 48-48, and by a total over a thousand votes. A conservative Independent candidate likely cost her the job, as Ayotte had struggled to deal with Trump and had alternated between a cautious endorsement and then rescinding it not long before the election after the infamous Access Hollywood tape came out. Many Trump voters skipped voting for the then Senator. Trump also lost New Hampshire narrowly, while the open Governorship was picked up by a Republican.

 

Out of office, Ayotte passed on opportunities to try a Senate comeback but focused on running for Governor in 2024. By this time, Trump's dominance of the Republican Party was complete and she was more willing to openly support him and focus on issues such as illegal immigration as she ran in a primary and won 63-34 over an opponent who had also moved in a more MAGA direction. Even as Trump lost New Hampshire for the third straight time, voters seemed happy with the record of the outgoing moderate Republican Governor and comfortably elected Ayotte to succeed him.

 

In that cycle, Democrat Cinde Warmington lost her primary for Governor 48-42 against another female candidate who was considered somewhat more centrist. Warmington held the job of Executive Councillor at the time, which is a sort of unique elected fourth branch of state government. The opioid addiction epidemic bad become a big issue in the state and the candidate was hurt by her past lobbying work for the industry.

Warmington ran again this year and New Hampshire Democrats must have felt it was her turn to take on Ayotte. Yesterday,  she was unopposed for the nomination. Joyce Craig, the 2024 Gubernatorial nominee who had defeated Warmington before losing to Ayotte refused to issue an endorsement however.  The third place candidate from that primary, a blue collar type guy, had tried to run again this cycle, then announced he would seek the Governorship as an Independent, but failed to make the general election ballot. Ayotte took 92 percent among Republicans yesterday against two minor opponents.

 

There seem to be genuine concerns among Democrats that Warmington is not raising enough money for this race. It is a possibility that the contest for Governor will fall in attention behind the state's federal elections. Democrats though are hoping that in any New England state, the Republican label this year will be a huge anchor. Polls are showing the incumbent ahead by a few points, but with enough undecided voters to prevent me from labeling this race as "Likely Republican." That could be where it is headed though.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)