Another Day Off

47 Days Until Election Day

The number 47 is pretty dishonorable today, so I might as well remain silent in protest..

No, seriously, there was just not enough time today to be as verbose as I would need to be about the Ohio Governor Race. Of course, I plan to cover that tomorrow. The days are ticking down and I envision a lot more busy ones this fall. I am confident I will get through all the states alphabetically but I hope to still have several days to break down all the U.S. House predictions in increments. Hopefully, I will not to fit them all in on October 31 and November 1. Plus, the Bears play on Election Night Eve this year!

North Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

48 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

This year, when Democrats are hoping to pick up several Senate seats, the most likely one looks like it could come from a southern state that Donald Trump has won three times. The situation in North Carolina might even look better than a couple of states where the party is trying to hold on to seats they currently control.

 

The seat in the Tar Heel State is open mostly because Donald Trump dislikes Republican Senator Thom Tillis and was prepared to oppose him in a primary. Had he done so, Tillis likely would have lost, so he saw the writing on the wall and withdrew last June from what was expected to be a bid for a third term. Tilis had twice won very close races in the state, both with just 49 percent of the vote. In 2014, he defeated a Democrat incumbent. In 2020, he looked like he might go out as a one-termer himself, until a sex scandal involving his Democrat opponent broke late in the campaign and that likely gave him another six years. Republicans have won most Senate races in North Carolina over the past couple generations, and Tillis kept that streak intact. If he were the Republican nominee now, this race would probably at least be a little bit closer. The mainstream Republican's vote against Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" last year was the last straw for the the current President though and he took to Truth Social late one night to blast the Senator. Tillis would soon say he would not run again and claimed he was leaning against it beforehand anyway. With the end of his political career before him, Tillis has gone on to be one of the more critical Republican Senators in speaking out against some Trump actions, and especially those of Administration officials. He continually claims that Trump is getting "bad advice" as he seems unwilling to totally break with the the man himself, but there is definite bad blood there. Still, Tillis was recently the deciding vote in confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General, after claiming he received some key concessions on Trump's desire for a weaponization fund and the claim that it is now dead. If someone were to ask the Senator directly, he would probably confirm that he thinks it will be unlikely a Republican will win the race to succeed him.

 

With Tillis gone from the race, the names of lots of Republicans were bandied about. One that quickly received a lot of notice was that of North Carolina native (and Florida resident) Lara Trump, the daughter in law of Donald. At the time she was the Republican National Committee Vice Chair and had been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate in the state four years earlier as well as a Florida possibility this cycle. Many Republicans across the country breathed a sigh of relief when the unproven Lara Trump, a true nepo in-law, announced she would not run. However, Trump's quick choice for the nomination might not have been close to the strongest Republican in the state either.

 

Attorney Michael Whatley had never run for office before, but he had a long history of being around Republican politics as a staffer and campaign official. As Chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, he became a key defender of Trump and then was rewarded in 2024 when Trump picked him to lead the RNC (with Lara Trump as the #2.) In November, the Republican won what had been considered a swing state and Trump was very pleased with Whatley's performance. That seemingly was enough for him to think that Whatley would be a strong enough candidate in his own right and that North Carolina  was red enough for him to win an open Senate seat against a far more proven Democrat opponent.

 

A few Republicans were already planning to challenge Tillis in the primary and did not leave the race. With Trump's support though, it was a given that Whatley would win the early March primary. Against six opponents, he took 65 percent, which to me seems a bit underwhelming for a candidate who had such advantages in the party. An attorney named Don Brown, who had finished fourth in a 2024 U.S. House primary, took second with 16 percent. Some right ring figures endorsed him, perhaps feeling that Whatley was too "establishment."

 

While Republicans have won most big federal races in North Carolina, Democrats have continued to have much stronger showing in state government contests, especially in races for Governor. This year, their candidate for Senate is likely the strongest possible politician his party could have put up. First elected Attorney General of North Carolina in 2000, Roy Cooper was politically cautious enough to pass up opportunities to run for Governor until he did so in 2016 and narrowly ousted in the incumbent Republican. For years later, Cooper won reelection by five points, both victories happening while Trump was carrying the state. With term limits in place, Democrats managed to win the Governorship against in 2024, by an even bigger margin. That is likely due to the fact that the Republican candidate, bombastic African-American MAGA supporter Mark Robinson, who was the surprise winner for Lt. Governor four years earlier was an incredibly weak and divisive candidate. That was the case before all sorts of internet message board stuff came to light that was shall we say extremely freaky in nature. Robinson denied he had said those things, but his candidacy was cooked and Democrat Josh Stein easily won. This matters more because it is believed that Roy Cooper was unwilling to be considered for Kamala Harris's running-mate that year because whenever he left the state, it would make Robinson the acting Governor. Many believed that Cooper would have been a strong asset to the national ticket as a somewhat moderate southerner with executive experience. With that in mind, he might have also been a strong general election Presidential candidate, but at the age of 69. that ship has largely passed. Nonetheless, Cooper, now out of elected office for the first time in 38 years, was recruited to run for Senate. Whether the former Governor truly wants to go to Washington D.C. to become a freshman Senator or if he just felt a need to do what is best for his party is perhaps open to interpretation.

 

Democrats already had an announced candidate for Senate. That was Wiley Nickel, who had won an open seat in the U.S. House in 2022. Republican state legislators (who often clashed with Cooper as Governor) withdrew the lines for 2024 though and Nickel did not have a path to reelection so instead he said he would run for Senate in 2026. He might have been a credible statewide candidate, but the appeal of Cooper was far stronger and left Nickel in a position of not being able to raise much money until a decision by the former Governor was made. When Cooper did run, Nickel had no real choice but to step aside and instead decided to run for Wake County District Attorney. He is unopposed in that race this November, and will have to consider the new job a consolation prize from what he had thought would be a longer career on Capitol Hill. In the meantime, Cooper took 92 percent in the primary for Senate against five little known opponents.

 

From the outset, polls have shown Cooper ahead of Whatley in the general election by various margins. Republicans have insisted that the conservative nature of North Carolina will cause the race to tighten and things will look better once voters "get to know" the Republican nominee. Frankly, Whatley comes across as far from any sort of dynamic or appealing political figure. He simply is a yes man for Trump, and while there are a substantial number of voters who want exactly that, there are probably not going to be anywhere near enough of them to carry the day this year. Today, Trump appeared at a campaign rally in North Carolina and promised victory for his hand-chosen candidate, but few in the party are said to actually believe Whatley can pull it out and major financial assistance is unlikely to happen.

 

This situation has Whatley and his party trying to throw whatever they can against Cooper, targeting his record as Governor, and a particular issue during the Covid pandemic early days when he released inmates from state prisons. Cooper, who left office with fairly high approval numbers, said he was ordered to do that in 2020 by a judge and that other states, and the federal government under Trump also did the same. Democrats are also playing rough, with ads claiming that Whatley promoted a child sex offender to positions within the North Carolina Republican Party. The nominee claims that individual was merely an unpaid volunteer who was already involved before Whatley became party chair.

 

Politics are polarized these days and it would be foolish to suggest that a lot of North Carolina voters are simply not going to vote for anyone who is a Democrat. This open race is unlikely to be a blowout, but Cooper has some major advantages and it would come as quite a surprise if he did not win this race that many in his party are already putting in the bank. For now, I am cautiously calling it "Leans Democrat", but this contest might just be on the edge of a double digit margin pickup for Cooper, as Thom Tillis looks forward to retirement, and what I think will be years of being even more negative publicly towards Donald Trump.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

11 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

45 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

New York Governor- Race of the Day

49 Days Until Election Day

New York Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

So much of our politics nationally over the past decade has focused on the Empire State. While it is still one of the largest population centers of the country, it had seemed to fall in influence towards the end of the 20th Century. Today though, so many national leaders are New Yorkers, including the person in the Oval Office, even though he has formally decamped to Florida.

Democrats have won the last five elections for Governor in New York, many by very wide margins.The 2022 contest turned out to be closer than expected though, with the sitting Governor, who had yet to be elected to the post in her own right taking 53 percent of the vote. Two years later, Donald Trump took 43 percent, after not having won more than 38 percent in his previous runs. That was not nearly enough to win, but the Republican made substantial gains among minority voters in the state, especially in the New York City area. Those might be related to cultural issues, concerns over the financial costs of mass immigration during the Biden years, or fear of crime. It looked like there was the beginnings of realignment among voter groups who were not traditional Republicans. All that means that the election for Governor this year will probably not be a total blowout, and it could even wind up closer than some expect now, but the nature of this race being in a difficult midterm environment for Trump's party, with a lot of his first-time voters perhaps still unsatisfied with the national status quo, should have the Democrat in position to continue the streak.

Kathy Hochul, once briefly a somewhat moderate Democrat Congresswoman from western New York, took the oath of office as Governor in 2021, the first woman in the state to do so. For the previous six and a half years, she had been Lt. Governor under the nationally prominent Andrew Cuomo and had been elected twice on a ticket with him. While serving in his third term though, Cuomo, once thought of a serious Presidential hopeful, saw his political career implode on a variety of fronts, especially related to sexual harassment and alleged assault of women. He would eventually resign under great protest, and that made Hochul the Governor. By that time, the two had basically not spoke in some time, and she went into office without much preparation. The theme of a New York Governor and Lt. Governor, who always happen to be of the same party and are usually elected together, not getting along has become a persistent theme in New York politics, especially amongst a male and a female.

With the power of incumbency, Hochul easily won a 2022 primary, in which she was challenged from both her left and her right and then survived in a difficult political environment for Democrats. As a statewide candidate, in a party dominated by the New York City metropolitan area, Hochul had moved a good deal to the left herself.  In 2025, the political heat was on the Governor as Democrats competed for Mayor of New York City and the leading candidate was a controversial very left-wing candidate named Zohran Mamdani, who captured the party's nomination. For all the issues surrounding the young candidate's experience and views, he wound up facing none other than Andrew Cuomo, who continued to run as an Independent after losing the primary. Hochul initially tried to stay out of the fray, but came to endorse Mamdani, the nominee of her party, even as many Democrats supported the former Governor or remained officially neutral. Hochul seemed to do this as a way to blunt a potential primary challenge from Mamdani's ardent supporters. In any event, he wound up being a strong campaigner for the most part and Cuomo seemed well past his prime, and New York City moved considerably to the left. There is certainly something to be said there about the internal politics of NYC, as Mamdani has succeeded in influencing primaries this year. Republicans have hoped that her endorsement of Mamdani and his presence as a big-time openly socialist officeholder will have a negative effect on Hochul's reelection effort. While it is certainly true that the Mayor (justifiably so) generates much heat from a lot of traditional Democrat groups in the city, his poll numbers, at least thus far, are fairly decent.

For a time, Hochul was facing a primary challenge. While many prominent Democrats stayed out, she happened to be challenged by her own Lt. Governor, whom she personally selected to run with her in 2022. Such a thing is fairly unprecedented in politics. In fact, Antonio Delgado, an Afro Latino Congressman, when selected, was already Hochul's second Lt. Governor. For about seven months, the vacant spot had been held by the man she selected, also an African-American. Brian Benjamin, resigned after being indicted on federal wire fraud and bribery charges, which were later dropped by the government. Once in office though, Hochul and Delgado had a falling out, which seems quite common in Albany. Delgado, the first Latino to hold statewide office, announced he would not run for Lt. Governor again. Hochul basically said, that was fine, she was looking for someone else to run with anyway. Then, Delgado announced a primary challenge, and was seen as to the left of the Governor. Had she not endorsed Mamdani, there might have been a concerted effort to defeat her. Mamandi though did not endorse her, likely out of payback to Hochul, and after he failed to win the endorsement of a liberal third party, Delgado ended his challenge and the Governor was on her way to officially to November.

In New York, candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor are nominated on a ticket together. Both candidates had geography in mind for starters. Shortly before he ended his bid, the New York City area resident Delgado had picked India Walton, an openly socialist African-American woman. In 2021, she had defeated the incumbent Mayor of Buffalo in a Democrat primary before that African-American incumbent defeated her as a write-in during the general election. Hochul, from the Buffalo area, also picked an African-American runningmate once again, in this case, a fellow woman. The party's current nominee for Lt. Governor is Adrienne Adams who last year ended three years as Speaker of the New York City Council. Last year, she was among the several Democrats who ran for Mayor, and was eliminated in the primary. The Mayor of New York, also an African-American man named Adams, bypassed the primary, and tried to run as an Independent before ending his reelection bid. NYC politics sure were crazy last year and are likely to remain that way.

The Republican contest for Governor also produced a nominee without the need for a June primary contest, but the build up to it was of course interesting and dominated in many ways by Donald Trump. For one thing, Lee Zeldin, the Jewish-American former Congressman who had run a credible race for Governor against Hochul four years ago might have seemed like a strong contender for the party again, but Trump tapped him to lead the EPA, taking him off the New York political scene. Congressman Mike Lawler, a very ambitious member from a swing district on Long Island, with a penchant for many, many television interviews, was definitely interested in running for Governor, but Trump posted on Truth Social that Lawler was needed to stay in the House, so that effectively killed his nascent statewide candidacy. Lawler is currently running for reelection and will be extremely lucky to win this year.

When he made his move on Lawler, Trump seemed to favor the candidacy of Congresswoman Elise Stefanik from Upstate. He definitely owed her. Once a mainstream Republican, who was considered moderate on many issues, Stefanik had a massive political transformation to become an outspoken MAGA warrior. After his 2024 victory, Trump picked her to be U.N. Ambassador. The confirmation process dragged on for months though and Trump eventually pulled her nomination because one of his male Administration figures, who had gotten into some ethical trouble, needed a soft landing and the U.N. looked like the right place. At the time Trump also said he did not want to lose her vote in Congress, while also all but conceding that her strongly red district might be competitive in a general election.

The stage seemed set for Stefanik to run for Governor in 2026 though and she was all but announced and planning to run hard against Hochul by tying her to the socialist Mamdani. Trump, who had been calling the new Mayor a Communist for months while Mamdani was calling Trump a "fascist" (and let us face it they are both correct) then went to the Oval Office for a high profile meeting. In a politically shocking turn of events, Trump seemed somewhat smitten by Mamdani and his political starpower during a photo-op. He made comments saying that Mamdani would basically do just fine as Mayor and suddenly the MAGA narrative about him in advance for the 2026 Gubernatorial race was vanished. One can hardly imagine the reaction that Stefanik must have been having watching this unfold. Very quickly after she said she would not run for Governor and would not seek reelection to Congress either. The mother of a young child was stepping back from politics and elected office. Serves her right. "Thank you, Mr. President."

Even before screwing over Stefanik, Trump had equivocated on her candidacy, saying that while he liked her, he also was fond of another contender. Like 2022 nominee Zeldin, Bruce Blakeman is a Jewish Republican from Long Island. In 2021, Blakeman defeated a Democrat incumbent to become Nassau County executive. This was not an unsubstantial political victory and he was easily reelected in 2025. Before that Blakeman had a long history in New York politics, where he had developed a relationship with Trump.  (His ex-wife is married to Paul McCartney which probably also impresses Trump.) Back in 1998, Blakeman lost by a wide margin as the GOP nominee for State Comptroller and the next year even lost his seat in the county legislature. He rebounded as an attorney and political appointee under a Republican Governor and in 2010 finished a distant third in a three way Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat. That November, he stayed on the ballot as the nominee of the Tax Revolt Party and won a grand total of 4,522 votes statewide, solidifying a last place finish. In 2014, Blakeman lost an open U.S. House race by six points.

All of this shows that Bruce Blakeman has not exactly been a winner in New York politics, so it is somewhat amazing he has had recent success in Nassau County, a once solidly GOP area, that had trended heavily towards Democrats. The fact that Republicans have been making a comeback there is a sign of dissatisfaction with Democrats from New York City to Albany. This factor makes Blakeman a reasonably credible nominee for Governor, as he is about to turn 71. One can even make the case that Blakeman, who might currently have a more moderate profile than Stefanik and comes from a more politically competitive area, is at least a slightly stronger general election candidate. Not having to compete in an expensive primary was also a benefit. To join his ticket, Blakeman selected Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood. Very few people in the state have probably ever heard of him, but he would fit along with a tough on crime political narrative.

Blakeman claims the race against Hochul is competitive. Some Republican sanctioned polls sort of back that up. I am more skeptical and it is not because Hochul is any sort of amazing political talent. Perhaps finding it difficult to run on economic matters, with voters blaming the Trump Administration, Blakeman seems to be be joining other Republicans in pushing in on cultural issues. He recently attacked Hochul for wearing a head covering at a Muslim cultural center. Somehow, I do not think he would have made as big of a deal if she wore a head covering at an Orthodox Jewish synagogue. There clearly is a concerted effort on behalf of Republicans nationwide, and including New York, to be very critical of Muslim political influence, both in the wake of the anniversary of 9/11, and with the Muslim (and virulently anti-Israel Mamdani, who has a wife who expressed glee online about the October 7 attacks) as Mayor of New York City. After the June primary, when a more left-wing Jewish Democrat defeated a Jewish incumbent in a race when Israel had been an issue, the Gubernatorial candidate compared the Jewish Congressional nominee to a Nazi collaborator.  Blakeman, who would have once been considered a moderate east coast Republican, has made several comments since becoming nominee that seems to reach into the anti-immigrant territory and even controversial theories about racial "replacement." Despite being the clear underdog in this race, Blakeman has been saying that if he loses it will be because Democrats "cheated" or "stole" the election. 

For whatever reason, Blakeman seems to be trying to appeal more to an audience of one, a guy who cannot even vote in New York anymore (which has nothing to do with his having been convicted of a felony there a couple years ago) than to New York swing voters. Still though, politics are so polarized he will get a significant chunk of the vote regardless. A mainstream challenger to Hochul and the status quo in New York would have an opportunity in this race.. well, maybe not quite as much in this particular cycle.

While some online MAGA types seem insistent that Hochul is in serious political trouble, I think that when the dust settles, she will have won a second full term by at least 10 points.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

14 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

20 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

NFL Week 1 Results and Week 2 Games

 50 Days Until Election Day

It was a very exciting Week 1. There is no time today to talk about the New York Gubernatorial race. Hopefully, tomorrow! 

 

Week 1

 

1. Patriots (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0) L 1

 

2. 49ers (0-0) vs. Rams (0-0) in East Melbourne, Australia W 1

 

 

 

3. Bears (0-0) at Panthers (0-0) W 2

4. Buccaneers (0-0) at Bengals (0-0) W 3

5. Saints (0-0) at Lions (0-0) L 2

6. Bills (0-0) at Texans (0-0) W 4

7. Ravens (0-0) at Colts (0-0) L 3

8. Browns (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0) W 5

9. Falcons (0-0) at Steelers (0-0) W 6

10. Jets (0-0) at Titans (0-0) L 4

11. Cardinals (0-0) at Chargers (0-0) L 5

12. Dolphins (0-0) at Raiders (0-0) L 6

13. Packers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0) W 7

14. Commanders (0-0) at Eagles (0-0) L 7

15. Cowboys (0-0) at Giants (0-0) L 8

 

16. Broncos (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0) L 9

 

Week 1 and Overall Results: 7-9 (44%)

_________________________________________________________

 

Week 2

 

Current Results: 7-9 (44%)

 

1. Lions (1-0) at Bills (1-0)

 

 

 

2. Panthers (0-1) at Falcons (0-1)

3. Saints (0-1) at Ravens (1-0)

4. Vikings (1-0) at Bears (1-0)

5. Bengals (1-0) at Texans (0-1)

6. Steelers (1-0) at Patriots (0-1)

7. Packers (0-1) at Jets (1-0)

8. Browns (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-1)

9. Eagles (1-0) at Titans (0-1)

10. Jaguars (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)

11. Raiders (1-0) at Chargers (0-1)

12. Seahawks (1-0) at Cardinals (1-0)

13. Commanders (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)

14. Dolphins (0-1) at 49ers (1-0)

15. Colts (0-1) at Chiefs (1-0)

 

16. Giants (1-0) at Rams (0-1) 

 

New Mexico U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 51 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan faced a somewhat competitive contest in 2020 as he moved from the House to the Senate, but should have a far easier time six years later in winning a second term.

 

A distant relative of the outgoing Governor of New Mexico, also a former U.S. House colleague, Senator Lujan has been around politics all of his life, as his late father was one of the most influential political figures in the state. He served six terms in the House and appeared to be on the Leadership track before he won an open U.S. Senate seat, becoming one of the few Latinos in the upper chamber. In 2022, when he was still just 49, Lujan suffered a stroke. After several weeks of treatment, he seemed to make a full recovery.

 

On June 2, Lujan took 84 percent among Democrat in a primary. For a time, it looked like he would not even face a general election opponent, as Republicans had a hard time finding a candidate willing to run besides one who had been disqualified for ballot requirements. It appears unclear to me if Independent or third party candidates have qualified for the November ballot, but Republicans were able to nominate one via write-in.

 

A businessman and past unsuccessful candidate for lower offices with the appropriate name of Larry Marker received a required number of write-in votes in the Republican Primary (whether cast by marker or not) to make the ballot against the incumbent. That is not an insignificant achievement for Marker, but this year, in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002 and at a hefty financial disadvantage, there may not be much more to accomplish. Perhaps, now that he is actually on the ballot, he can change his name to Larry Vote Puncher. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

10 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

44 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Mexico Governor- Race of the Day

 52 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

New Mexico will elect a new Governor this year and the nominees do not agree on much but they do share common ground in saying the state's name must remain intact. They are not interested in Donald Trump's (trolling) suggestion that the Land of Enchantment become "New America."

 

This is a state that is not a blowout for the party and there is definite political competitiveness in the state, but New Mexico has mostly elected Democrats in recent decades and that is probably not going to change this year. However, there are some factors at play in this particular race that makes me cautious to at this point classify the outcome as "Likely."

 

Incumbent Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is not eligible to seek a third term. The Lujan family has been in New Mexico for many generations and active in both parties. The Governor's background as a Latina had some talk about her as a potential Vice Presidential candidate in 2020 but she did not appear to be seriously considered for that and also was passed up after interviewing with the incoming Biden Administration about the position of Secretary of HHS. She then apparently turned down the post of Interior Secretary to remain as Governor, while another woman from her state was tapped for that role. Like her predecessor as Governor, Republican Susana Martinez, also a Latina, Lujan Grisham has faced some embarrassing headlines about personal behavior. In this case, Governor Lujan Grisham paid a settlement to a male former staffer who accused her of sexual battery.

 

This year, New Mexico seems prepared to elect its third consecutive female Governor and in this case, it is the woman who took the job as Joe Biden's Interior Secretary that the current Governor passed up. Democrat Deb Haaland would become the nation's first female Native American Governor. A former State Party Chair, she was elected to two terms in the U.S. House from a blue leaning area of the state, before resigning to join the Cabinet. In running for Governor, she was considered the early frontrunner and her presence in the race likely kept some other big name Democrats out, including sitting Lt. Governor Howie Morales. Shortly after announcing her candidacy early last year, Haaland divorced the husband she married in 2021.

It was far from a complete coronation for Haaland however leading up to the June primary. For one thing, Ken Miyagishima, the former Mayor of Las Cruces, who is both Mexican and Japanese ancestry challenged her, but then dropped out of the primary to run as an Independent. While he failed to make the ballot, he has since endorsed the Republican nominee for the general election.

Haaland would face one opponent though in Bernalilo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. A cowboy hat wearing Jewish American, Bregman is also the father of MLB veteran Alex Bregman, who is currently having a great second half for the Chicago Cubs, after signing with my favorite team in the offseason. The prosecutor ran as a tough on crime alternative to the more liberal Haaland and with local politics playing some sort of role, was able to claim the endorsement of some Native American tribes, who favored him over his Native American opponent. Bregman tried to get the frontrunner to debate and was only able to be given one opportunity to do so.  It seems like the contest between the two got a bit personal as well. The outcome was not close. Haaland took 72 percent of the vote and while Bregman conceded on primary night, he made it clear he would not be issuing a formal endorsement of the nominee.

 

After a withdrawal and a disqualification, the final Republican Gubernatorial field featured three candidates. In a somewhat rare case for a Republican primary these days, none of the candidates seemed to emphasize personal support for Donald Trump too much. The winner with 47 percent was Gregg Hull, who had just completed 12 years as the Mayor of Rio Rancho. Businessman Doug Turner took 37 percent, a much better showing than his third place finish in the 2010 primary. While Turner was perhaps considered the most moderate candidate, he seemed to have the most support among Trump's ardent backers. In third place with 16 percent was Duke Rodriguez, the former state Human Services Department Secretary. In this race, he had this endorsement of his boss, former Republican Governor Gary Johnson, who has since become a Libertarian and ran as their 2016 Presidential nominee. After the primary, Johnson endorsed the Republican nominee Hull, which I think is at least somewhat of a significant development in the state.

 

This November, New Mexico voters will vote for a ticket that includes the nominee for Lt. Governor, In the state, those candidates are chosen separate from the Gubernatorial primary, but then the two run together. The Republican nominee is State Senator David Gallegos who adds some Hispanic diversity to the ticket. In the thee way primary, he took just short of 50 percent, 12 points ahead of attorney Aubrey Blair Dunn, the son of former Public Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr., who in office switched from Republican to Libertarian, an historic first. The younger Dunn had run as the Libertarian nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and took five percent.

The Democrat nomination turned out to be a bit more complicated. The easy primary winner with 80 percent for Lt. Governor had been Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. She defeated African-American State Senator Harold Pope Jr. Shortly after the primary though, the nominee withdrew citing health issues. Haaland inferred she should have the right to select the replacement for Toulouse Oliver but technically the decision rested with Central Committee of the state party. The bypassed primary runner up Pope and some others before choosing another female statewide office holder. Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, who was being term limited for that office, had started off running in the primary for Lt. Governor but then dropped out due to her husband's cancer diagnosis. After Toulouse Oliver left due to health issues of her own, Garcia Richard said her husband's situation had improved and she was willing to run and serve, leaving both major party nominees with Latino Lt. Governor candidates, in a state that will this year elect its first non-Latino Governor since 1998.

 

Polls are showing Haaland is ahead in this race for Governor, but not by a huge margin. Conventional wisdom is that she should win and I will be very surprised if she does not. However, the candidate has a reputation of being pretty far to the left and based on the defection of someone like Miyagishima and the lack of full support from Bregman, could still have some divisions in her party that need to be healed. Hull is a credible candidate, but any Republican running this year in New Mexico still faces an uphill climb.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

13 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

19 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

New Jersey U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 53 Days Until Election Day

 

New Jersey U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

On this 25th anniversary of the most tragic and historically substantive day in American history, we can all feel grateful that we have the opportunity and the freedom to discuss electoral politics in the same sort of way that Americans have throughout the generations. For any of us above a certain age, the events of that day are seared into our memory. It is hard to believe that a full quarter of a century has passed and that sort of milestone makes those memories and emotions even tougher to dwell on this year. America has endured though and we have been nothing short of lucky to not have experienced anything close to the level of that day since. Nonetheless, we must never forget.

 

It just so happens that I will be discussing New Jersey today, a state that certainly lost many of its citizens on 9/11/01 and felt the full weight in a way that perhaps only neighboring New York could claim. It is also a state that last year had a high profile race for Governor that appeared to be competitive, after a stronger than expected Republican showing in 2024, but ultimately produced a very solid win for the Democrat, cementing the state's image as being quite blue. There is probably some political hangover in the Garden State this year at least in terms of the one statewide race, which does not seem to hold much drama.

 

Many though will be looking at what Senator Cory Booker intends to do after this election. Recently married for the first time, the incumbent is probably more focused on building on his national profile than a race back at home. Booker first came to political prominence as the Mayor of Newark, where he had a penchant to make headlines. He set his eyes on the United States Senate and likely scared the elderly incumbent Democrat out of another campaign. When that Senator passed away, Booker won a special election to replace him, although the first African-American Senator in New Jersey history became to be seen as a polarizing figure statewide. The next year though, Booker easily won a full term and then a 2020 reelection. 

 

Before that most recent Senate win, Booker ran for President in the 2020 cycle and initially was thought of as one of the leading candidates. A gifted speaker, the Senator reminded a lot of people of Barack Obama, and spoke of how he hoped to be a unifying figure and the "politics of love." Primary voters looking to unseat Donald Trump were not really into buying that though, and candidates to Booker's left received more support and others, such as Joe Biden, looked to be more electable for those who had that concern. After falling behind in the polls and not qualifying for the main debates, Booker suspended his Presidential campaign before the first votes were cast.

 

Running for a third full Senate term, Booker is being opposed by Republican attorney Justin Murphy, who about 25 years ago was the Deputy Mayor of Tabernacle Township.  Since then, he lost a couple of U.S. House primaries and in 2024 finished in a distant third place in a Republican Senate primary. This year though, in a primary that did receive much attention, Murphy benefited from being seen as the most conservative candidate in a party increasingly dominated in primaries by MAGA supporters. In June, Murphy took 33 while three other opponents all took double digits. The second place contender was State Trooper, Iraq War venteran and recently defeated Assembly candidate Richard Tabor, an African-American who took 29 percent. In third place was the candidate thought to be the strongest potential challenger to Booker, although that might not have been saying much in this field. Former local tv news reporter Alex Zdan won 27 percent. He had run for but dropped out of the 2024 Republican Senate contest. None of these candidates were seen as even being on par with some recent New Jersey Senate nominees, who did not come that close to winning. The Murphy (who is not related to the Murphy who just finished up last year as New Jersey's Democrat Governor) campaign does not appear to be substantial financially in any way and he seems well to the right of where most New Jersey voters are.

 

Once Booker wins another term, there is perhaps some possibility that he is interested in replacing Chuck Schumer of New York as his party's leader. A ton of Democrats want Schumer gone from that role, even if he helps them capture a majority, but that message may not have gotten through to the current leader. Booker made a ton of headlines in 2025 when he took part in the longest Senate speech in history, railing against the Trump Administration. Exact details about how he handled a need to go to the bathroom were not directly addressed, perhaps for the best. This did a lot to put Booker back in the good graces of party activists who might have somewhat forgotten about him since his Presidential run.  Another issue though is that Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen is someone who is openly plotting a bid for Leader (although he says he might possibly run for President in 2028), and a lot of progressive activists seem to like the idea of Van Hollen as Leader, (but probably not for President.)

 

So, there is a chance that Booker might run for President himself again. If as expected there is a large field, it might make sense. There will definitely be a lane for a black candidate to consolidate support leading into the first contest in South Carolina. Right now, the only other African-American possibilities for Democrats seem to Kamala Harris and Maryland Governor Wes Moore. Booker has recently increased his television appearances and has taken some steps to try to break away from his long-standing strong support of Israel, which is more politically problematic for Democrats these days. Like so many mainstream Democrats on that issue, Booker will have to adjust his positions and his rhetoric if Israel happens to turn aside (as I hope happens) Benjamin Netanyahu before the 2028 Presidential primaries.

 

Right now though as he contemplates his next moves, Booker has few worries at home.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 9 D  (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

43 D (34 holdover, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Hampshire U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 54 Days Until Election Day

 

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

If Democrats are to have any chance of winning control of the Senate this year, they absolutely must hold New Hampshire. A setback here would be an epic political catastrophe and in a state that seems poised to once again elect a Republican Governor, things are currently looking pretty close. However, the Live Free or Die State is a place that has tended to favor Democrats in federal elections.

 

As she approaches her 80th birthday, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is stepping aside. She has served in the Senate since 2009 and has spent most of her adult life in politics. Before her election to the Senate, in her second try, she had spent six years as Governor between 1997 and 2003. Her most recent reelection wound up being easy in 2020 but some of Shaheen's votes in recent years upset the progressive base of her party and many were happy to see her go. Despite this, her daughter Stefany, won a crowded primary this past Tuesday, in which she ran to the left of her closest competitor, and now seems on track to be the next Shaheen to join Congress next year, once her mother retires.

 

When Shaheen made her retirement announcement last April, party insiders immediately looked towards Congressman Chris Pappas. He is looking to become the first male Democrat elected to the Senate from New Hampshire over 50 years as well as the first openly gay male nationwide to serve in the Senate. Pappas solidly won one of the two's Congressional districts in a 2018 open race. His race in 2020 was a bit closer, but he had less difficulty in '22 and '24, the former being a win over future White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

 

Pappas became the heavily favored frontrunner for his party but in the latter stages of the primary, some attention went to Karishma Manzur, a Bangladesh born medical scientist and party activist. She ran to the left of Pappas and seemed to have some momentum during a cycle where several left-wing candidates have won primary upsets. While few expected Pappas to actually lose, there was much interest in how low of a vote percentage he might slip to. While some prominent liberals endorsed Manzur, Pappas touted among others, the support of 1988 Presidential nominee and his fellow New England Greek, Michael Dukakis. On Tuesday, Pappas won on Tuesday 65-33, perhaps exceeding expectations by a bit. 

 

For Republicans in this open race, hopes immediately turned to Chris Sununu.The son of a former Governor, Sununu won the Governorship in 2016, even as other Democrats were carrying New Hampshire. He was reelected and remained popular every two years until not seeking another term in 2024. During this time, Sununu had already resisted attempts to get him to run for U.S. Senate or for President. At times he went much further than most Republicans in criticizing Donald Trump, but would also go on television and offer some excuses as well and he seemed to be trying to have it both ways. The former Governor would have made a formidable candidate and many Republicans nationwide were disappointed when he once again took a pass.

However, before Chris Sununu, there was John Sununu, the elder namesake of their politician father. At age 62. a decade older than his now more famous brother, John is attempting to become one of the rare people in American history to make a return to the U.S. Senate after having lost his seat. This would also seemingly mark the longest time between stints. In 1996, Sununu was elected to the U.S. House and served for three terms. Then in 2002, with the private support of the Bush White House (back when a President opposing an incumbent of his own party was quite rare), he knocked off an incumbent Republican Senator in a primary. It turned out to be a good cycle for Republicans and he won by four points over then Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Six years later, the election of 2008 turned out to be far worse for Republicans. Shaheen won a rematch by 7 points and has served since. Sununu turned down an attempt to make it a best of three in 2014 and seemed content to continue life in the private sector, but he ran again in 2026. A State Senator who had been running decided to endorse the former U.S. Senator.

 

Sununu would not have the Republican field to himself however. While most of the candidates were little known figures or perennial political losers, his main opponent happened to be another former United States Senator. There was a period of time in early 2010 when Scott Brown was the biggest political story in the country. Coming from a dysfunctional youth, Brown had an interesting life story as an Army National Guard veteran and one time scantily clad magazine pinup model, who became a Republican State Senator in Massachusetts. The father of an American Idol semifinalist who was also a prominent girls' basketball player in the state, Brown shocked the world when he won a special election to fill the seat of the late Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. This came as a huge boost to Republicans nationally when they badly needed a win and the telegenic Brown, a moderate, was seen as perhaps a future President in some quarters.

 

Brown had won over a flawed Democrat campaigner though in that special election and in 2012 when he sought a full term, Massachusetts reverted to its political norm and he lost his seat to Elizabeth Warren by eight points. He went to do some work for Fox News and openly flirted with a future Presidential run, but he also had a vacation home in neighboring New Hampshire. Rather than attempting to make a quick political comeback in Massachusetts, Brown backed up his ambitions and took full-time residence in New Hampshire. In 2014, a strong year for Republicans, he took about half of the total vote in a crowded primary for a Senate seat and then came within three points of beating incumbent Senator Shaheen. Despite continuing to reside in New Hampshire, Brown tried to claim a state pension in Massachusetts. To the surprise of many, considering his past moderate and establishment ties, he became a relatively early endorser of Donald Trump in 2016, went on to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa and started dying his hair darker. (John Sununu has less hair than he did back in his earlier political career.)  In 2022, Brown's wife Gayle Huff Brown, a longtime television news figure in Boston came in third place in a Republican primary in the race Karoline Leavitt won before she lost in November to Pappas.

 

By the time Scott Brown entered another race for Senate in 2026, he was considered a political has-been who had no real chance to win a race in New Hampshire. Republican leaders, while not able to get Chris Sununu to run, were able to get John Sununu (the younger) to do so and were also able to get Donald Trump to issue an endorsement. This was an interesting development, considering Chris Sununu had at times been critical of Trump and had actively campaigned in his state for Nikki Haley in her 2024 run against him. More so, Scott Brown had been a more vocal Trump supporter and was one of the Ambassadors he nominated. Brown stayed in the race and claimed he was the true conservative alternative, but the Trump endorsement was a big boost to Sununu, who welcomed it in terms of the primary, but also tried to not even acknowledge it much as it was seen as a hindrance in a general election. Sununu the even more distant in time former Senator, won an eight way primary, defeating the other former Senator he never got to serve with 68-27. Bob Smith, the one time mercurial New Hampshire Republican Senator, who lost a primary to Sununu in 2002 and who also lost in a 2014 primary to Brown, backed Brown in this race. I guess that makes sense.

 

The general election is now set and it features a matchup that has been anticipated for months. The polls throughout have seemed close. I wonder how many non-political junkies have some confusion and think Sununu is his younger brother, the recent Governor they liked, instead of the politician who last ran a race and lost 18 years ago. At least one television report on this race, used the wrong Sununu in a photo. I think I made a joke or two about Tito Jackson trying to appeal to Michael Jackson fans. To be fair, Pappas also shares a name with Chris Sununu, their first name. Maybe there is just a lot of confusion there.

 

Conventional wisdom has been that Pappas is a strong young candidate who will have the edge in this state this year. I happen to agree, but one has to look at the most current polls and recognize this race is close. A couple of them are showing a virtual dead heat and that has a lot of Republicans looking for any bit of good news this cycle excited. I think that there are some backers of Pappas's more left-wing primary opponent who will have to come to terms with supporting the more establishment choice. I keep honing in on the factor of base Democrats being very down on any current sitting member of the U.S House this cycle. Another feature of this race, even if it might only matter for a point or two, is that a frequent Independent candidate popular with libertarians and others on the right is on the ballot again this year after some legal wrangling. The vote for that businessman, Aaron Day, likely cost a Republican incumbent, who is now Governor, her Senate seat in 2016.

 

Just having a Sununu on the ballot is probably a big positive for Republicans, but it is not the one who might really have a chance here. I think that if Pappas does not make any major missteps, this race is probably still his to lose. It may be a competitive single digit contest, but in this particular cycle, I think any Republican would be hard pressed to flip a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump has always lost general elections in to begin with.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 8 D  (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

42 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

New Hampshire Governor- Race of the Day

 55 Days Until Election Day

New Hampshire Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Every two years, the Granite State elects a Governor. Only one other state can claim that. It has also been a pretty good political assumption that a new Governor will be given more leeway from the voters the first time they are up for reelection after just their first two years. In 2024, Republican Kelly Ayotte was elected Governor by 10 points, even as Donald Trump was losing the state to Kamala Harris by three points. These are major reasons why she should be considered a strong favorite to win a second term. At the same time though, national wave elections, for one side of the other, tend to be felt strongly in New Hampshire, radiating down to the hundreds of legislative districts that exist in the small state. If this is indeed a very bad cycle for Republicans, Ayotte will have to work even harder and this race could become a sleeper. For now though, the incumbent seems to be a good political fit.

Democrats have indeed won every major federal election in New Hampshire for the past several cycles, while the state has been more willing to elect a Republican as Governor. This year, there will be an open Senate seat that Democrats were counting on but may have to fight it out to the end, plus an open Congressional seat in a somewhat competitive district. 

Ayotte was the last Republican to win a Senate race in the state. In 2010, a strong wave year for the GOP,  she won an open Senate seat with 60 percent of the vote. A promising young political figure, who first gained notice as the legislature appointed Attorney General of New Hampshire, Ayotte looked primed for a long career on Capitol Hill. Things changed dramatically though in 2016, when with Donald Trump leading the Republican ticket, she lost her Senate seat to the state's sitting Democrat Governor 48-48, and by a total over a thousand votes. A conservative Independent candidate likely cost her the job, as Ayotte had struggled to deal with Trump and had alternated between a cautious endorsement and then rescinding it not long before the election after the infamous Access Hollywood tape came out. Many Trump voters skipped voting for the then Senator. Trump also lost New Hampshire narrowly, while the open Governorship was picked up by a Republican.

 

Out of office, Ayotte passed on opportunities to try a Senate comeback but focused on running for Governor in 2024. By this time, Trump's dominance of the Republican Party was complete and she was more willing to openly support him and focus on issues such as illegal immigration as she ran in a primary and won 63-34 over an opponent who had also moved in a more MAGA direction. Even as Trump lost New Hampshire for the third straight time, voters seemed happy with the record of the outgoing moderate Republican Governor and comfortably elected Ayotte to succeed him.

 

In that cycle, Democrat Cinde Warmington lost her primary for Governor 48-42 against another female candidate who was considered somewhat more centrist. Warmington held the job of Executive Councillor at the time, which is a sort of unique elected fourth branch of state government. The opioid addiction epidemic bad become a big issue in the state and the candidate was hurt by her past lobbying work for the industry.

Warmington ran again this year and New Hampshire Democrats must have felt it was her turn to take on Ayotte. Yesterday,  she was unopposed for the nomination. Joyce Craig, the 2024 Gubernatorial nominee who had defeated Warmington before losing to Ayotte refused to issue an endorsement however.  The third place candidate from that primary, a blue collar type guy, had tried to run again this cycle, then announced he would seek the Governorship as an Independent, but failed to make the general election ballot. Ayotte took 92 percent among Republicans yesterday against two minor opponents.

 

There seem to be genuine concerns among Democrats that Warmington is not raising enough money for this race. It is a possibility that the contest for Governor will fall in attention behind the state's federal elections. Democrats though are hoping that in any New England state, the Republican label this year will be a huge anchor. Polls are showing the incumbent ahead by a few points, but with enough undecided voters to prevent me from labeling this race as "Likely Republican." That could be where it is headed though.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

NFL Week 1 Games

56 Days Until Election Day

The Race of the Day feature will be taking one day off per week as I will continue my tradition of listing all the NFL games and then keep track of the results. These are NOT PREDICTIONS. They are merely a run-down on which teams I want to win each week. In deciding that, in all possible scenarios, I will choose on what is best for the Chicago Bears and a quest to theoretically become the #1 seed in the NFC. This should be an exciting season for them and their fans. Let us hope. Expectations have definitely been raised.

 

Tomorrow, for the first time ever on Wednesday, the season kicks off and it happens to be a Super Bowl rematch, There is also a game Down Under on Thursday night (USA time) and these events will clash with the highly anticipated Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas. Whatever will those people do who want to watch both? Great scheduling job, White House!

 

Week 1

 

Current Results: 0-0 (100%) 

 

1. Patriots (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0)

 

2. 49ers (0-0) vs. Rams (0-0) in East Melbourne, Australia

 

 

 

3. Bears (0-0) at Panthers (0-0)

4. Buccaneers (0-0) at Bengals (0-0)

5. Saints (0-0) at Lions (0-0)

6. Bills (0-0) at Texans (0-0)

7. Ravens (0-0) at Colts (0-0)

8. Browns (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0)

9. Falcons (0-0) at Steelers (0-0)

10. Jets (0-0) at Titans (0-0)

11. Cardinals (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)

12. Dolphins (0-0) at Raiders (0-0)

13. Packers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0)

14. Commanders (0-0) at Eagles (0-0)

15. Cowboys (0-0) at Giants (0-0)

 

16. Broncos (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0) 

 

 

 

Nevada Governor- Race of the Day

57 Days Until Election Day

Nevada Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

On this Labor Day, a traditional benchmark point of election season, we look at a race for Governor of a state where organized labor has been known to hold political sway. While Democrats, often buoyed by the political machine built by the later Senator Harry Reid has tended to win most big federal races in Nevada, Republicans have been far more successful in contests for Governor.

 

Four years ago, Republican Joe Lombardo, the two-term Sheriff of high profile Clark County, took the Governorship over a first term Democrat in a 49-47 race. This was the only Governorship to flip from blue to red that cycle. Nevada politics can be seen as both transient in nature, with so many newcomers arriving in the state each year and also representative of national trends against a party in power. This sort of dynamic, which heavily involved the economic and social aftermath of the Covid pandemic and the related shutdowns, worked to elect a Republican during a midterm year of a Democrat President. This year, the opposite trend against a Republican President should be in effect nationally and at present, I have been a bit more surprised that the Democrat nominee does not seem to be in a stronger position. It could be that Lombardo is just a politically successful politician or it could be that a state with a lot of socially and economically downcast voters without high education levels are just pretty heavily Republican these days.

 

Unlike four years ago, when he had to face higher profile opponents, including one well to his right, the incumbent Lombardo cruised to a victory in the June primary with 91 percent of the vote. One unique quirk to Nevada politics are the voters can choose to cast a ballot for "None of These Candidates"  and have it count towards the total. 

 

The nomination for Democrats also seemed to be largely settled early. The choice of the party establishment was Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is seeking to become Nevada's first black Governor. After winning a tight open race in 2018, Ford was reelected in 2022 by a solid margin,. He has clearly indicated an ability to win statewide, although a race for Governor is definitely a bigger deal. In the primary, Ford took 63 percent while Alexis Hill, the Washoe County Commission Chair took 24 percent. She seemed to run on a bit more of a populist agenda.

 

It is worth nothing that in addition to the none of the above option, several other candidates will appear on the November ballot and that could be a bit of a hindrance for Ford in unifying the anti-incumbent vote. One of them is Danielle Ford who was elected to the Nevada Board of Education from a swing district in the state. Yes, while not related, she shares the same last name with the nominee of the Democrats.

 

As a statewide candidate, Lombardo has had to balance what he has said from time to time about Donald Trump. That might be especially challenging this year but the Governor has recently appeared at a rally with the President. In May of this year, the Governor, who has also raced cars competitively, was driving along with his wife, when he was pulled over by a Las Vegas cop for a red light violation. Body camera footage shows the former police officer and longtime law enforcement official who is now Governor identifying himself by name. The officer says he is aware and then lets him go on his way. It definitely pays to be Governor. I wonder how many chief executives are still regularly driving themselves these days. 

 

In this cycle, Lombardo has received the endorsement of several labor unions, which is not all that common for a Republican. He even has the support of the Clark County Teachers Union, the largest in the state, while the official state teachers union is backing Aaron Ford. The powerful Culinary Union has also endorsed the Democrat, as they typically do.

 

I have long expected this race to be at least a tossup and thought that Ford might have a good chance to knock off an incumbent in this particular cycle. The polls are showing a competitive race, but Lombado ahead at right around the 50 percent margin. if that is accurate, he is likely to win another term. Over the past 32 years, the first Trump midterm of 2018 was the only time a Democrat has won the Governorship though. This is interesting because in downballot statewide races, Democrats have been winning more than their share for a while. 

 

This is a race to keep an eye on. Nevada has a long period of early voting and a particular political journalist there posts a lot on a daily basis about how the voting seems to be going based on party registration and political junkies around the country pay close attention. Nevada was a swing state in 2024 that went to Trump by 4 points, and was symbolic of his somewhat surprising win that year. If Ford can make inroads among African-American voters, and especially Latino voters, whose dissatisfaction with the status quo made them go for Trump two years ago, he will have a real chance of winning. If those voters view Lombardo as a more sensible political leader with his own identity, then it will be tougher to win. Right now, data seems to show the incumbent has a modest edge.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

  8 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

 

Nebraska U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

58 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican 

 

I am hoping that Pete Ricketts, the junior Republican Senator from Nebraska has a happy and successful October. As for November? He is on his own there. You see, Ricketts is part of the family that owns the Chicago Cubs, whom I am of course a bigger fan of than any politician running for office this year. The Senator's brother Tom, who primarily handles the ownership duties is not politically vocal, while a sister Laura, is a prominent gay activist and big-time Democrat fundraiser. Their father started the TD Ameritrade business in Omaha, which made them all very rich. The Ricketts parents were once vocally opposed to Donald Trump from within the Republican Party, but those days are long gone.

 

Pete Ricketts eventually went to work for his father's business. In 2006, back when Democrats still regularly won statewide elections in Nebraska, he ran for the U.S. Senate and captured the GOP nomination over more politically experienced opponents. Ricketts was then wiped out 64-36 against a conservative leaning Democrat incumbent, who had also once been Governor. After returning to the private sector, he then ran for Governor in 2014 and benefited from his family's money during the course of that campaign. Ricketts won a seriously contested Republican primary with just 27 percent of the vote, but the general election was far easier as Nebraska had become a good deal redder politically. A second term win was also relatively easy, even as the Governor often clashed with members of his party in the unicameral State Senate. Ineligible to seek a third term, Ricketts began to once again aspire to join the U.S. Senate, which happens to be something that several previous Nebraska Governors later did. When sitting Republican Senator Ben Sasse resigned two years early to take an academic position, Ricketts was thought of as the likely choice if a Republican won the Governorship in 2022. That is indeed what happened. Sasse, who at times was a frequent critic of Trump, later ran into some issues in his Florida University post and resigned. Since late 2025, Sasse has courageously been battling advanced pancreatic cancer. The 54 year has already outlived the diagnosis he was given by a few months.  

 

Once Ricketts was appointed to fill the Senate vacancy by his Gubernatorial successor, he cruised to victory in both the 2024 primary and general election, even as MAGA types have remained suspicious of him and his establishment background. He has been a reliable supporter of Trump though both as Governor and as a Senator. Ricketts' wife however has remained a registered Democrat and has sometimes endorsed them in recent years. The Senator took 82 percent in this May's Republican primary.

 

As I discussed yesterday in regards to the surprisingly competitive Gubernatorial election, there seems to be a lot of people in Nebraska who have soured on Republicans, but might be less likely to want to vote for a Democrat. There is an Independent candidate running for Governor there and in other red states this general election, Independents are being supported by Democrats for strategic purposes. That is also once again the case in Nebraska.

 

Dan Osborn (who is not related to but perhaps owes some political name recognition to Tom Osborne, the Cornhuskers legendary football coach turned Republican Congressman), is a Navy veteran and industrial mechanic who went on to become a union President and led a 2021 strike at a cereal plant. The blue collar Osborn definitely does not come across as a typical politician, with his tattoos and not usually wearing suits. In 2024, the same year the appointed Ricketts was winning a special Senate election, Osborn ran against the state's other Republican incumbent in a much more watched race.

 

Running as an Independent in lieu of the Democrats fielding a candidate, which some in the party were uneasy with, Osborn looked competitive in the polls with Senator Deb Fischer. Many wondered if a huge upset was possible and talked about how Fischer had not really attended to political needs at home. The overall Republican lean of Nebraska was enough though for Fischer to defeat Osborn 53-47. I would surmise that had Osborn been on the ballot in 2024 with a D next to his name, he would have lost by at least a couple more points.

 

This cycle, after apparently considering bids for Governor or a U.S. House seat, Osborn decided to run as an Independent once again for Senate. The overall political environment for Republicans seemed likely to be in a worse position than it had been when Trump was on the ballot in 2024. Once again, Democrats decided their best path was to support Osborn, who seemed to align with them on most issues. There would be some significant complications though as a primary for Democrats emerged, against the wishes of party leaders, who preferred the party formally sit out this election. There would be all sorts of court challenges involved. The first candidate to get into the Democrat primary was pastor William Forbes, who while he sort of denied being a Republican, had a history of activism for Pro-Life causes and was a Trump supporter. He seemed to be running just to capture the ballot spot for Democrats and cause some in that party to vote for the party label itself. 

 

Democrats called for Forbes to drop out saying he was trying to "trick"voters. He would not do so and this led the party to back the primary candidacy of retired pharmacy technician Cindy Burbank, a legitimate Democrat, if not a legitimate candidate for Senate. It was clear that if Burbank won the nomination, she would drop out and support Osborn against Ricketts. The Nebraska Republican Party complained that she was not a real candidate and the Republican Secretary of State agreed and had her removed from the ballot. Burbank claimed she was serious about running for Senate and would only withdraw from the general election is there was not a "path to victory." In March, the State Supreme Court overruled the Secretary of State and she was placed back on the ballot. In May, Burbank easily defeated Forbes by 79 points. The nominee then promptly endorsed Osborn. In July, it was settled that her name would be removed from the November ballot. Furthermore, the Legal Marijuana NOW nominee, also a former labor union official exited the race and endorsed Osborn. I think that story was what confused with what I wrote yesterday about the party's candidate and the Gubernatorial race. I am sorry I got that part of the narrative wrong, but I cannot get everything right all the time! The bottom line is that all of this maneuvering has worked to the advantage of the Independent Osborn and against the Republican candidate.

 

Can Osborn improve on his competitive showing from two years ago? While I think it is definitely possible, and that in a large wave election he could even win, I have some increased doubts about him as a candidate. He is more known than he was two years ago and there is a risk that a maverick outsider only has the same kind of "magic" for a limited time. Republicans have since 2024 done all they can to paint Osborn as a leftist who was once an ally of Bernie Sanders. Osborn has continued to insist that he is an Independent who represents those fed up with both major parties. Much of his rhetoric though has tacked left as of late. For instance, he has stated that he opposes offensive military aid to Israel, although he continues to support defensive weapons (which differentiates him at least from the Democrat Senate nominee in Michigan.) At the same time, Osborn is trying to appeal to the kind of populist voters who have gravitated towards Trump over the past decade. During the course of this campaign, some old audio recordings from the 2021 strike came out in which Osborn complains about undocumented workers being hired to replace the striking union members and said ICE was called to deal with him This puts a candidate being backed by Democrats, for which abolishing or severely curtailing ICE is a mandatory political position in a very awkward spot. Osborn has stated he did not personally call ICE but merely sough guidance from local law enforcement. It seems like has is trying to have it both ways. Taking a more solid position against illegal immigrants and in favor of working-class Americans might win him more crossover support, but that would run the risk of alienating the Democrats he has backing him for the second straight cycle. There are also questions about how his associates may have used some underhanded tactics in trying to infiltrate the Marijuana Party and get them to dissolve for his own political benefit.

 

Right now, there is not a lot of recent non-partisan polling on this race. A few Democrat sponsored surveys show a dead heat between the incumbent Ricketts and Osborn. Back in May, one even had the challenger ahead by five points. I am mindful that the Republican somewhat outran the polls against Osborn in 2024. It could be that this is a very different year and that will not happen again, but sometimes voters prefer a known quality, which is what Ricketts is, even if not completely beloved, over someone more "risky." Right now, considering the statewide nature of Nebraska, I will give the incumbent at least a slight edge.

 

In the meantime, Go Cubs Go!

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

41 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

 

Nebraska Governor- Race of the Day

 59 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

There is a perception that the Cornhusker State is as red in its politics as the stands at a Saturday football game in Lincoln. While that is definitely true in the rural parts of the state, possible anger over tariffs aside, the same cannot be said for the urban areas and perhaps less so than before in the suburbs. One Congressional district is thought to be a top for Democrats to flip and one other might be competitive. In the next edition, I will talk about the race for U.S. Senate between a Republican and an Independent being backed by Democrats. Today though, the focus is on the Gubernatorial race, which was not really supposed to be competitive, but some recent developments have made it so.

It has been 32 years since Democrats last won the Governorship of Nebraska and if they are to do it this year, it will likely need a wave election throughout the country. Four years ago, Republican Jim Pillen, a veterinarian, farmer, and former University Regent, who was also once indeed a star football player for the Huskers, won a competitive primary. Pillen was considered positioned to the middle of his two main opponents, a moderate State Senator, and a Donald Trump endorsed MAGA agribusiness executive, who was faced with several scandals during the campaign. With the nomination secured, Pillen took 59 percent in November to become Governor.

In office though, Pillen has seen to tack even further to the right than he was, such as calling his political opponents "libtard.". The Governor also sustained serious injuries in a 2024 horseback riding accident. It could be that Pillen had become concerned about a potential primary challenge in 2026. Charles Herbster, the Trump backed candidate the incumbent beat the last time, considered a run but did not follow through. The more moderate candidate from 2022, former State Senator Brett Lindstrom also did not amount a challenge, at least not in the Republican primary. In May, Pillen took 75 percent against a handful of opponents. The second place candidate was a guy named Walz, who did not appear to be related to Nebraska native Tim Walz, the Minnesota Governor who was nominated for Vice President in 2024 and saw some of his Nebraska Republican relatives speak out against him that year. Pillen is running again with incumbent Lt Governor Joe Kelly. Once nominated, candidates for Governor formally select their running-mates.

Pillen will now face another opponent named Walz, and this one apparently is a distant cousin, via marriage, to Tim. Former State Senator Lynn Walz took 92 percent in the primary for Democrats. In 2018, she had been the Lt. Governor nominee for her party and the ticket lost soundly. While partisan affiliation for Nebraska Senators is not exactly a secret, the chamber is technically non-partisan and it is the only unicameral legislation in the nation. Adding a political quark to Nebraska, is the fact that the state assigns an Electoral Vote for each Congressional District, instead of only statewide and the Omaha based district has been a "blue dot" in the last couple elections. Pillen tried, but was unsuccessful in changing that for 2024, at the behest of Donald Trump. If he is reelected, the change likely will be made for 2028 though, so this race has national implications. One can also theorize that if Nebraska does this, the only other state who has the same law, Maine, if continued to be controlled by Democrats, would follow suit, thus making it all somewhat moot. This year, Walz selected farmer Ben Steffen, a former Republican to run with her. A former teacher, Walz is playing up her bipartisan cooperation record in office.

Walz is a credible candidate for her party, but faces serious odds in a state like Nebraska. There is also the candidate of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party which could take votes from the left. For some odd reason, Nebraska LMN nominees have recently tended to pass away during the campaign or have health problems. The race this year for Governor has become more complex though, to go along with a second consecutive Senate election in which an Independent candidate was competitive against a Republican.

To the surprise of some, Lindstrom, the former moderate Republican candidate (who might be considered a conservative most other places in a pre-Trump era) said he wanted to run for Governor as an Independent, along with Navy veteran and volleyball coach Mike Picard on his ticket. Lindstrom, who had also list a 2012 Congressional primary, ran as a Republican for an open House seat this year but dropped out of the race, seeming to concede he could not win a Republican primary, and saying he was fed up with the divisiveness of modern politics. Then, he emerged as a candidate for Governor. Legal wrangling ensued regarding petitions and the eligibility of Lindstrom and it looked like he would not be on the ballot. The saga was not over though, and I cannot claim to understand all the minutia, but somehow the anti-Trump former Republican candidate has become the nominee of the ironically named America First Party. This sets up a four-way general election although I thought I recently read something about the Marijuana candidate saying he would not devote too much energy to the campaign. I cannot seem to find the source of that, but perhaps stoners are not exactly known for their energy to begin with.

With Lindstrom running as a centrist and vowing to major policy reforms, it raises the question of how his candidacy could shake up this race. He has said he does not wish to be a "spoiler" in the campaign, although of course the banner of "America First" could cause confusion for MAGA folks. Would Lindstrom running split the Republican vote and help Walz the Democrat or would he split the anti-Pillen vote and thus help the Republican? My first instinct was the latter. I thought it would make the most sense for Walz and Lindstrom to come to some sort of agreement as to who would be the strongest candidate. Others have seemed to think the opposite though and that the third party candidacy will give disaffected Republicans who do not wish to vote for a Democrat an option. I do see that side too and will note that Nebraska voters will already be considering an Independent candidate running with the support of Democrats.

I still think a Republican losing the race for Governor would be less likely than a Senate upset, but maybe not by much. Polls were showing Pillen ahead of Walz by anything from two to 12 points without Lindstrom as a choice. Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty right now about the dynamics of this race. It will probably come down to the Republican incumbent and the Democrat challenger at the end in terms of the top two (although I would of course be positively inclined towards Lindstrom) and at least for now, it would be hard to pick against the Republican in Nebraska.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

 7 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

15 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Montana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

60 Days Until Election Day

Montana U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

When the year 2026 began, someone could have made a lot of money by predicting that the Senate race in Montana could be decided by two candidates named Alme and Bodnar, That appears to be the top two contenders at least for this state and if it were a one on one matchup, Republicans could be in even greater danger of losing a Senate seat they once considered very secure. Things happen to be a bit more complicated though out in Big Sky Country and if Democrats were to say fall one seat short of a Senate majority, there could be a lost of frustration about Montana.

Democrats used to dominate the state in federal elections, but as the country as whole became more divided between red and blue, Montana definitely became more Republican. Two years ago, Senator Jon Tester, who had defeated a Republican incumbent in the midterm year of 2006 and then hung on to win two highly targeted reelection campaigns, finally lose his seat in a Presidential election year. Tester not only lost, he was defeated by over seven points. It would seem to be a long time before another Montana Democrat could win statewide again (one of the two Congressional districts is theoretically more winnable.) With all that in mind, it seemed doubtful that Tester, a one time populist hero on the left, who maintained a relatively moderate voting record in the Senate, would heed any calls to try to make a 2026 comeback against his former colleague Steve Daines. The Republican had chaired his party's Senate campaign committee in the cycle where Tester was defeated.

 

In the new Congress, Daines thought about running for Majority Leader, and might have gotten Donald Trump's support if he had. While he did not do that, he did seem to be in a very favorable position to win a third term. In 2020, the incumbent knocked off Montana's Democrat Governor, who was recruited into that race, after a brief Presidential bid, by 10 points. Thus, it came as a shock in March, when with just minutes left in the filing deadline to run in the state's June primary, Senator Daines released a video pulling the plug on his reelection campaign. Besides for the obligatory words about wanting to spend more time with his family, he did not really give too many details about this sudden change. Clearly though, Daines had been working behind the scenes. With the deadline literally moments away, there would be chance for one of the state's Members of Congress or a statewide elected official to file to run. Instead, Daines had already endorsed a successor, who was in on the secret, and Donald Trump and likely the Senate leadership, were in on it too and ready to back up that endorsement.

 

Not many political junkies in 49 states or perhaps Montana itself had heard the name Kurt Alme. He had never run for office before but was serving as the U.S. Attorney for Montana, the same job he had in the first Trump Administration. In the time between, he worked for the Governor as the budget director. Now, Alme would have to resign his post in the Justice Department to run for Senate and introduce himself to Montana voters. Many believed that the Republican label alone would be enough to carry the day in what had become a reliably red state. A couple of fairly little known primary challengers were already running for the seat against Daines, but Alme won what had become an open seat primary with 76 percent of the vote.

 

Not long at all before Daines' surprise announcement, the contest to oppose him had already had a bit of a twist to it. As is the case in some other states this year, and as has been seen in places like Nebraska and Utah in recent cycles, an Independent was running against a Republican in a state where being a Democrat is considered a political hindrance. In this case, it was Seth Bodnar, a former Rhodes Scholar, Army veteran, and business executive who been serving as President of the University of Montana before getting into this race. Furthermore, former Senator Tester was the one who had been pushing Bodnar to run as an Independent. A leaked text showed Tester had referred to the party label of Democrats as "poison." I would also say that had Tester known that Daines would not run again, he probably regretted not running again in 2026 himself.

 

Bodnar has been raising a lot of money in this campaign and also has won support from a bipartisan group of people including former Democrat Senator Max Baucus and former Republican Governor Marc Racicot. He is running as a non-partisan centrist alternative to Donald Trump's party and insists he would remain an Independent on Capitol Hill and not caucus with either party. (Saying that is perhaps easier said than done for logistical purposes.) It was very clear though that if Democrats wanted their best chance to stop a pro-Trump Republican from winning the election, backing the independent candidacy of Bodnar would be the strongest option.

 

Would rank and file Democrats play along though, the way they have this year in Nebraska and also now in Idaho and South Dakota? Not exactly. Five candidates were running in the primary, but there would certainly be pressure on the winner to withdraw their name from the general election ballot. A Native American candidate finished in third place with 13 percent behind two women, both of whom said they would not leave the race.  Former State Representative Reilly Neill, who easily had the mos campaign cash took 33 percent, losing to retired Air Force Lt. Colonel and Iraq War veteran Alani Bankhead who took 44 percent. Bankhead, who held a job as a sort of leadership coach, raised very little money in her run, but was helped by outside spending on behalf of veterans' groups.

 

Democrats continued to hold out hope that Bankhead would see the big financial discrepancy and the political writing on the wall and withdraw from the race. The deadline to do so continued to tick down week by week and there was some confusion over if she would actually do it. The candidate though insisted that she would not, and that she deserved some support for being the real Democrat in the race. Bankhead is definitely to the left ideologically of Bodnar. She even said he was "the last person" she would drop out in favor it citing an issue involving female university employees who alleged discrimination during Bodnar's tenure and who would receive a settlement. This stubbornness on behalf of the little known Bankhead, the duly nominated candidate of their party,  has greatly disturbed many Montana Democrats and those elsewhere, considering the stakes of this election, the expected closeness of the balance of power, and the political reality of winning a race in Montana. Some of wondered if Bnakhead is truly a secret MAGA agent trying to help a Republican, in this case Alme, win a Senate seat over a divided primary. I surmise she is merely a left-wing Democrat who thinks anyone who might be a "moderate" is unacceptable to start and thus it makes no difference if a Republican wins the seat, or someone who may or may not formally caucus with Democrats. Whatever her mindset it, it is shortsighted.

In this national political environment, Republicans are carrying a heavier burden on economic and foreign policy issues, even in a place like Montana, and perhaps even more so now because of unprecedented disputes with neighboring Canada. Alme has no electoral track record to speak of, and all sorts of people criticized the "backroom deal" that got him onto the ballot. Such actions have happened before in places like Chicago for U.S. House races, but it was a pretty near development in Montana. The fact though that two different major candidates (plus a Libertarian) are running against Alme complicates the math needed to defeat him.

 

Clearly, either Bondar or Bankhead would stand a better chance if the other were off the field. The polls are showing the Republican at just around 45 percent while the others split the difference. Most recently, Bodnar has moved ahead of the Democrat nominee in these polls, which is perhaps not a surprise, considering his financial advantage and greater institutional support, including among so many prominent Democrats. These polls are also showing that in a race against Bankhead, and the Libertarian which might cost Republicans support as it has in Montana's recent past, Alme would be ahead by a sizable margin. On the other hand, Alme vs. Bodnar plus the Libertarian would be a virtual dead heat. There are simply a lot of Montana voters who will not vote for a Democrat (especially someone as to the left as Bankhead appears to be) but would vote for an Independent.

The deadline has passed and four candidates will be on the ballot. If all continue to run active campaigns, Alme is probably going to win, even if he barely breaks 40 percent. The only alternative would be if Bankhead's support totally falls off and Democrats are pragmatic enough to unify behind Bondar. Pragmatism in politics seems to be in short supply these days though. Until the very end, a lot of people (myself included) who want to see checks and balances against MAGA will hope that Bankhead will eventually at least stop running an active campaign in order to boost Bodnar but that seems doubtful too.

I wonder though, have Barack Obama or George Clooney even picked up a telephone?

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

12 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

41 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

43 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)