NFL Week 11 Results

These were not predictions because if they were, they would not have been very good. However, my 2024 race by race election predictions were really very good again. I will itemize them all, once all results are completely final. This will probably be posted in December or early January. I have a lot of thoughts on the Presidential race result and aftermath but am not going to force myself to write about those now.

I am however very disappointed that the Chicago Bears have lost as many games thus far as they have and probably will lose a bunch more with a very difficult schedule. A change in Head Coach will almost certainly be needed.

1. Commanders (7-3) at Eagles (7-2) L 1

2. Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5) L 2

3. Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1) L 3

4. Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6) W 1

5. Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7) L 4

6. Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7) L 5

7. Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2) W 2

8. Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7) L 6

9. Colts (4-6) at Jets (3-7) W 3

10. Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5) W 4

11. Seahawks (4-5) at 49ers (5-4) W 5

12. Chiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2) W 6

13. Bengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3) L 7

 

14. Texans (6-4) at Cowboys (3-6) W 7

Week 11 Results: 7-7 (50%)

Overall Results: 85-80 (52%)

NFL Week 11 Games

 Do we have to?

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 78-73 (52%)

 

1. Commanders (7-3) at Eagles (7-2)

2. Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5)

3. Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1)

4. Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6)

5. Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7)

6. Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7)

7. Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2)

8. Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7)

9. Colts (4-6) at Jets (3-7)

10. Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

11. Seahawks (4-5) at 49ers (5-4)

12. Chiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2)

13. Bengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3)

 

14. Texans (6-4) at Cowboys (3-6)

 

 

NFL Week 10 Results

Why do I even bother? This NFL season has gone to hell pretty fast for me. Maybe there will be some latter season redemption for the Chicago Bears but they sure did not do much this week to make me feel better about life.

NOT PREDICTIONS

 

1. Bengals (4-5) at Ravens (6-3) L 1

2. Giants (2-7) vs. Panthers (2-7) in Munich, Germany W 1

3. Patriots (2-7) at Bears (4-4) L 2

4. Bills (7-2) at Colts (4-5) W 2

5. Vikings (6-2) at Jaguars (2-7) L 3

6. Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0) L 4

7. Falcons (6-3) at Saints (2-7) W 3

8. 49ers (4-4) at Buccaneers (4-5) L 5

9. Steelers (6-2) at Commanders (7-2) W 4

10. Titans (2-6) at Chargers (5-3) L 6

11. Jets (3-6) at Cardinals (5-4) L 7

12. Eagles (6-2) at Cowboys (3-5) L 8

13. Lions (7-1) at Texans (6-3) L 9

14. Dolphins (2-6) at Rams (4-4) W 5

Week 10 Results: 5-9 (36%)

Overall Results: 78-73 (52%)

Kari Lake Loses Again!

I will have a lot more to say about the political situation in America in the weeks ahead. I will also total up my race by race predictions once all results are final. Needless to say though, I did extremely well on those.

NFL Week 9 Results and Week 10 Games

 ELECTION DAY

Week 9

NOT PREDICTIONS

 

1. Texans (6-2) at Jets (2-6) L 1

 

 

 

2. Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3) L 2

3. Broncos (5-3) at Ravens (5-3) L 3

4. Dolphins (2-5) at Bills (6-2) W 1

5. Saints (2-6) at Panthers (1-7) W 2

6. Raiders (2-6) at Bengals (3-5) W 3

7. Chargers (4-3) at Browns (2-6) L 4

8. Commanders (6-2) at Giants (2-6) L 5

9. Patriots (2-6) at Titans (1-6) W 4

10. Bears (4-3) at Cardinals (4-4) L 6

11. Jaguars (2-6) at Eagles (5-2) L 7

12.  Lions (6-1) at Packers (6-2)  L 8

13.  Rams (3-4) at Seahawks (4-4) W 5

14. Colts (4-4) at Vikings (5-2) L 9

15. Buccaneers (4-4) at Chiefs (7-0) W 6

(Winning Score in Overtime by K.H.)

Week 9 Results: 6-9 (40%)

Overall Results: 73-64 (53%)

___________________________________________________________

Week 10

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Bengals (4-5) at Ravens (6-3)

2. Giants (2-7) vs. Panthers (2-7) in Munich, Germany

3. Patriots (2-7) at Bears (4-4)

4. Bills (7-2) at Colts (4-5)

5. Vikings (6-2) at Jaguars (2-7)

6. Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0)

7. Falcons (6-3) at Saints (2-7)

8. 49ers (4-4) at Buccaneers (4-5)

9. Steelers (6-2) at Commanders (7-2)

10. Titans (2-6) at Chargers (5-3)

11. Jets (3-6) at Cardinals (5-4)

12. Eagles (6-2) at Cowboys (3-5)

13. Lions (7-1) at Texans (6-3)

14. Dolphins (2-6) at Rams (4-4)

Final Election 2024 Predictions

 1 Day Until Election Day

Perhaps I am being lazy, but I am just an amateur at this and am going to hold on what I have already posted. This Presidential race looks so close that I have continued to be mostly focused on the polls regarding that contest. The Gubernatorial races all seem status quo and I do not really feel like changing anything on my Senate picks. Once again though, I am being very stubborn in saying that Sherrod Brown holds on in Ohio. I think he may do so barely, and it could take weeks there until we know. If I am wrong about any Senate race, it is most likely to be Brown vs. Moreno in the Buckeye State.

I have not really bothered to try to research the House races I have called Tossups. Perhaps, I could have changed my Alaska prediction to favor a Republican pickup or found a couple additional Democrat pickups in California, but I am just going to roll with what I have and let the political chips fall where they may...

Presidency

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (D)- 276 Electoral Votes

Donald Trump and JD Vance (R)-  262 Electoral Votes

 

Governors

 

23 Democrats  (20 Holdover, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)

27 Republicans (19 Holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

NO NET CHANGE

__________________________________________________________________

U.S. Senate

 

49 Democrats (28 Holdover, 10 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

51 Republicans (38 Holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF TWO SEATS

___________________________________________________________________

 

U.S. House

 

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

215 R (121 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF SIX SEATS

 __________________________________________________________________

 

Cumulative Result History:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%)  

2020: 459-22 (95%) 

2022: 487-19 (96%)

 

 

White House Race- November 3, 2024

 2 Days Until Election Day

The Final Edition

We about there. Finally. The Campaign of 2024 has in many ways been predictable in many ways but also extremely historic in many regards with some wild twists and turns. It also appears, at least on the surface, to be the closest election in recent history. We all know that the 2000 and 2016 votes wound up being extremely close, but going into Election Day, there was a clear favorite, that did and did not win in the end, respectively. One might have to go back to 1976 or perhaps 1960 to have an outcome that will be considered this in doubt, with hours to go. I was not born yet.

In a few days, the final votes will be cast and by the time the sun comes up on Wednesday morning, we might have an idea if  things look promising for either Kamala Devi Harris (Emhoff) the 49th Vice President of the United States or Donald John Trump Sr., the 45th President of the United States. One of them will become the 47th President of the United States. I very much wish there was a better option. However, the future of America is connected to the worse man losing. Will that happen? We will know soon enough, but it may take weeks of recounts and lawsuits before we truly know. One way or another, Trump will declare victory on Tuesday night and will never concede defeat, if he is defeated. So much of this is on us as Americans. We will get the President we deserve but that at least half the country will not want. There are some anxious times ahead for America in the time before the final polls close and in the time that will come after. Someone will be sworn in on January 20th, 2025 and I still believe we will have a free and fair election four years from now.

So much has happened since I last wrote about this race eight days ago. I cannot possibly recap it all. In many ways, it is irrelevant. People have made up their minds about who Donald Trump is. Many will proudly vote for him. It is hard to believe that, but those people are our fellow Americans. Many will also reluctantly vote for him, if nothing else than to keep his opponent and her party out of office. Those who do not know at this point, will either vote for Harris or will vote for neither.

Will anything at this late date truly matter?

A raucous and offensive Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden where a campaign approved insult comic said all sorts of nasty things but received most notice for calling Puerto Rico an "island of garbage." The current President of the United States an elderly and gaffe prone man, speaking on a Zoom call, calling that comedian "garbage" but in such a mangled way to allow Republicans to insist he was labeling all Trump supporter with that insult. To me, it seems clear what Joe Biden was saying, but in politics "if you are explaining you are losing", and this was not what the Harris campaign wanted, especially as it got in the way of her big speech at the Ellipse, the sight of Donald Trump's call to his supporters to "fight like hell" moments before the January 6 riots. History will have much to say about President Biden and his role in this campaign, and how he affected the final outcome,but clearly for those who want to keep Trump from winning, he should stay away from cameras or microphones. At a Halloween event, the President also playfully "bit" several costumed babies. Why should Commander and Major have gotten all the Administration Biting fun?

While many people, especially Latinos might have been genuinely offended by Tony Hichcliffe's style of roast comedy, the Trump campaign probably only appealed to their "very online" base by screaming bloody murder about the Biden comments. Trump showed up at a rally on a garbage trunk, after struggling to open its door, and then gave a speech wearing an orange vest. He looked like the Crossing Guard from the Village People and and got to dance to his favorite YMCA song in that Halloween costume. Later on in the week, Trump seemed to manifest some other latent desires at a microphone. Trump supporters have taken to wearing garbage bags the last few days. I do not think any swing voter will really care.

Trump said a lot of weird and frankly horrible things at his rallies this week. It seems like the pressure of the closing days of this campaign might be getting to him. Will it sway any voters? I think if someone is genuinely torn whether to stay at home or vote against him, it might. He said he would "protect women" if they "liked it or not."  Quite a thing for an adjudicated sexual assaulter to say. He despicably and (quite illogically) called Republican stalwart turned Harris supporter Liz Cheney a "radical warhawk" and spoke of an ugly scenario in which nine rifles were trained at her face. The bone spur deferment recipient said he was only saying she would not support Americans in combat if she also had to face combat, as if 58 year old women are placed in combat. The way he talked about it though sounded far more like an execution scenario. Considering the violent climate we live in, one would have hoped that Trump,who has been shot at himself, would not have said something so horrible. He is every bit that horrible of a person though. Today, he seemed to suggest he would be ok if a would be assailant shot the members of the media at his rally. As for the Cheney remark, it really is ridiculous. For one thing, she is not her father Dick Cheney, and Dick Cheney, as Vice President, was not President George W. Bush,whom despite his critics, worked every day to keep Americans safe, especially after we were attacked by terrorists on 9/11/01. What Trump said has been said before, but always by the radical left-wing fringe of Democrats. How can Republicans defend him? Nearly every Republican on Capitol Hill disagrees with Trump on foreign policy, and would side with their ex-colleague Liz Cheney, but yet they are forced to defend him. Also, nobody has advocated more bombings of more countries, including military action in Mexico, than Trump. Liz Cheney has nothing on Trump as a "warmonger" but Reagan conservatives should take a very hard look at how Trump approaches national security matters and the United States Armed Forces.

Both sides have been and are continuing to push anything they can, perhaps even to distorted lengths, to get their base riled up at the other side, and their allies in the media, on both sides, are going along with it. One way or another, a whole lot of Americans are going to be shocked, dismayed, and disillusioned by the results of this election. I can take some solace, though it is one I probably should not, in the fact that the some deserving people are going to be very upset emotionally in the near future.

There was so much more this week, but I cannot get into it all. Who will turn out to vote? That is what we are waiting to find out. Will Trump succeed in turning out low propensity young males who love his professional wrestling persona and get their news on podcasts? Or will the Call of Duty bros stay home on Tuesday to play video games instead? Will Harris succeed in getting a lot of older independent women to vote for her because they are either upset over the abortion issue or just genuinely sick and tired of Trump? Are there a lot of Republicans who were Nikki Haley voters or who did not even bother to vote in the primaries this year, who also just want to be rid of Trump? It is very noteworthy that Trump never had Nikki Haley do anything for him in this general election, besides her convention speech. She has said she has been "on standby" but has not spoken to Trump since June. This could wind up being a huge source of regret for MAGA just like picking Tim Walz for Vice President instead of Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania could potentially wind up being a huge bit of regret for Democrats. If either of these things come to pass, Haley and Shapiro may move quickly to gain political advantage with an eye on 2028.

The polls still look very close, both nationally and in the swing states. All of the swing states. Yesterday, the highly anticipated Des Moines Register poll for Iowa was released, conducted by a highly respected professional Ann Selzer, who has a reputation of nearly always calling Iowa races on the money. Everyone was expecting Trump to be ahead in this Iowa poll, as was considered a very red state, but that the margin might reflect the national trend, or especially the status in battleground neighbors Michigan and Wisconsin. Lo and behold, the Selzer poll showed Harris up by 4 points in Iowa. Nobody at all was expecting that. The Trump crowd of course dismissed the results, and indeed I will be very surprised if Harris actually wins Iowa, but could this poll be on to a phenomenon in Iowa and other parts of the Midwest where women are moving towards Democrats in unanticipated numbers? These results definitely shook up the online political betting sights, which MAGA had been so fond of pointing to, as proof that Trump was headed to a big win.

One big question I have is how the national polls can be so close, yet Harris is also close or perhaps narrowly ahead in the swing states? Based on the last two cycles, the conventional wisdom has been that Democrats have an advantage in the national popular vote that might not automatically transfer to the Electoral College. I have definitely believed that myself. Others are speculating that our politics nationally have become so polarized that Trump might be gaining ground in high population states he will lose like California and New York as well as ones he is expected to win like Florida and Texas, and yet the seven battleground states will be relatively unaffected and will just vote more similarly to the national total. There are so many unanswered questions on this Sunday night especially as it relates to polling and all the tea leaves regarding the early votes that have already been cast. Also, what about the fact that Jill Stein and Cornel West are on some state ballots and might hurt the Democrat, despite her being female and black, and the fact that Trump endorser and potential "Health Czar" Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot in some places including Michigan, and might hurt the person who tells America he will listen to on vaccines and fluoride?

Of course I must now make my Electoral College predictions. As a matter of blog history, the first one I covered on here was in 2008 when unfortunately I correctly predicted the winner. Four years later, I went with my heart over my head perhaps and was wrong. In 2016, I also was wrong, as was nearly everyone else. In 2020, I got it right and was happy to see America fire Donald Trump.

I will start with the contests that I consider "Safe."

AL-Trump

AR- Trump

CA- Harris

CT- Harris

DE- Harris

DC- Harris

HI- Harris

ID- Trump

IL- Harris

KY- Trump

LA- Trump

ME CD 1- Harris

MD- Harris

MA- Harris

MS- Trump

MO- Trump

MT- Trump

NE CD 3- Trump

NJ- Harris

NY- Harris

ND- Trump

OK- Trump

OR- Harris

RI- Harris

SC- Trump

SD- Trump

TN- Trump

UT- Trump

VT- Harris

WA- Harris

WV- Trump

WY- Trump

 

Total thus far for "Safe"- 181 D, 102 R

 

Likely:

 

AK- Trump

CO- Harris

IN- Trump

KS- Trump

ME statewide- Harris

NE statewide- Trump

NE CD 1- Trump

NM- Harris

 

198 D, 125 R

Leans: 

 

FL- Trump

IA- Trump

ME CD 2- Trump

MN- Harris

NE CD 2- Harris

NH- Harris

OH- Trump

TX- Trump

VA- Harris

 

226 D, 219 R

 

Finally, we get to the Tossups:

 

As I talked about last week, if the polling is off just a little, do not be surprised to see one candidate win all seven or perhaps six of these states. For now though, I see a more even distribution. Frankly, it makes things more 'fun" when we have to rely on polling data.

 

AZ- Trump

GA- Trump

MI- Harris 

NV- Harris

NC- Trump

PA- Harris

WI- Harris

Prediction:

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (D)- 276 Electoral Votes

Donald Trump and JD Vance (R)-  262 Electoral Votes

I hope I am right, but there is nothing more I can do. This is mostly on Democrats to bring this victory home for their ticket. I did my part, even as I recognize the danger of the policies that might result.

 

In the words of Alexander Hamilton, and famously quoted by Ronald Reagan:

"A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one."

 

So much is on the line for the United States of America and the whole world. We cannot allow Donald J. Trump or any wannabe despot that follows to bring us disgrace and so help us G-d, he will never be the Master of this nation or its people.

Almost Final U.S. House Recap and Updates

 3 Days Until Election Day

I have mostly been focused on the dynamics of the Presidential polling, so I do not know if there is anything jumping out at me in regards to any of my 435 predictions. I also do not really feel like doing all sorts of further research into the races I have as Tossups. Perhaps, I might do a bit of that on Monday for my "Final Predictions."

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

215 R (121 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF SIX SEATS 

If I were to somehow get everything right, Democrats would win a majority with just about as small of a margin as Republicans currently have. My instinct is that they will win a few additional seats than six, but anything over 15 would surprise me. I do think it is best for America is the House goes Democrat if for nothing else than to not try to do anything disgustingly un-Constitutional on January 6, 2025. Of course, this should be the expectation for all of us regardless of which party wins the Presidency. I also hope the Senate has a narrow Republican majority with a mainstream Majority Leader, who can hopefully help make the Party Grand Again, while also preventing the government from going too far left. However, the main objective for the future of America is that Donald Trump lose and that we be rid of him politically once and for all.

As it relates to all the House races, Presidential coattails or political drags, as the case may be, will play a role in what remains in the amount of competitive districts. Much remains unknown about polling this cycle, so it is very possible that one Presidential candidate does a good deal better than the polls suggest and thus the House is won alongside them in a fairly recognizable matter. There may also be recounts and lawsuits galore in races up and down the ballot across the country and we do not know for some time.

Every two years, I wind up being surprised at how good my predictions for House races wind up. I compare them to the race by race results from all the "professional pundits", and I always do at least as well as them if not better by two to three races in a couple of cycles. It would be nice to keep that up again although I always feel that one election I may just wind up off by a lot.

My past U.S. House prediction record:

(I was wondering why I only had 434 races for 2018 and had to recall that there was a botched election in North Carolina that never got certified.)

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)

2022: 420-15 (97%)

Almost Final U.S. Senate Recap and Updates

 4 Days Until Election Day

AZ- Leans D

CA- Safe D 
(Regular and Special)

CT- Safe D

DE- Safe D

FL- Leans R

HI- Safe D

IN- Likely R

ME- Safe D/Safe King

MD- Leans D

MA- Safe D

MI- Tossup (D)

MN- Safe D

MS- Safe R

MO- Likely R

MT- Leans R

NE A- Leans R

NE B- Safe R

NV- Leans D

NJ- Likely D

NM- Likely D

NY- Safe D

ND- Safe R

OH- Tossup (D)

PA- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D

RI- Safe D

TN- Safe R

TX- Tossup (R)

UT- Safe R

VT- Safe D

VA- Likely D

WA- Likely D

WV- Safe R

WI- Tossup (D) change from Leans D

WY- Safe R

49 Democrats (28 Holdover, 10 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

51 Republicans (38 Holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Republican net gain of 2 seats

 

There is a lot to consider here but I am sticking with my previous predictions, although there are so many varying polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that I have to have them join Michigan in being Tossups. Back to those in a bit.

I am still saying Texas is a Tossup but I would not at all be surprised if the end result winds up being something closer to Leans R. In the regular Nebraska election, I do not think it will truly come down to being a Tossup, although it is surprisingly possible. 

Also, I am keeping Arizona and Nevada as Leans D although I think it is fair to assume those races are tightening a bit simply because while there will be some ticket splitting down the ballot after the Presidential race, it is hard to imagine there will be tons of it. I believe Trump can win those states while the Democrats manage to hang on.

I think Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are a bit of a different story. I think whichever Presidential candidate wins the state will also see the Senate nominee of the same party win. These are just very nationalized races. Over the summer, I would not have thought the Republicans would wind up being as competitive in these states as they are. Some polls show the Democrats with a lead, so I still think they are slight favorites, but until we know how the overall polling quality winds up this cycle, I think I have to consider them Tossups.

 

There is a strong case to be made for Maryland being Likely Democrat instead of Leans, but there is at least one poll showing that maybe it will not be a blowout. Perhaps, I am being too stubborn because Larry Hogan is easily my favorite Senate candidate this cycle, but he is not going to win a federal race in Maryland. I am also going to be a bit stubborn and keep Minnesota as Safe Democrat instead of Likely. The national environment in even quasi-competitive states is very tribalist, but it is hard to even fathom that a normal person in that state will wind up voting for the particular Republican nominee.

Then, there is Ohio. Trump will almost certainly win it. Can Sherrod Brown hang on? Now, I am saying yes, barely, but this is the one I would probably predict wrong first. If Republicans had a better candidate, this might look more like the Montana race right now.

All of this means that whatever happens at the House level and between Trump and Harris, Republicans look very poised to win a Senate majority, and perhaps one with a few seats to spare. They may have a tougher road in 2026 in defending a majority, but the 2024 calendar and other circumstances wound uip working in their favor.

It feels weird to say it, because a lot of these Republicans deserve to lose by virtue of their MAGA associations. However, for the good of the country, I do hope Republicans control the Senate, at least by a small margin. This will put the necessary check and balance on the Harris Administration to keep them from going too far on some of the left-wing wishlist. Divided government is a good thing. Clearly, I want Harris to beat Trump. That is priority number one and means a whole lot more to me than any of these Senate races or even the overall balance of power. I also think it will be best if Democrats control the House by a very small margin. I will update those predictions tomorrow.

My past U.S. Senate prediction record:

 

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)

2018: 33-2 (94%) 

2020: 33-2 (94%) 

2022: 33-2 (94%) 

Almost Final Gubernatorial Recap and Updates

 5 Days Until Election Day

DE- Likely D

IN- Leans R

MO- Likely R

MT- Safe R

NH- Tossup (R)

NC- Likely D

ND- Safe R

UT- Likely R

VT- Likely R

WA- Leans D

WV- Likely R

Total with Predictions:

23 Democrats  (20 Holdover, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)

27 Republicans (19 Holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

No net change

 

I considered moving a couple of races a degree in the same direction but really do not see the point. None of these races, except New Hampshire, are that competitive. The action is not on the Gubernatorial side in non-midterms, and less this year than usual.

Living in the Chicago media market, I do see a lot of ads for the Indiana candidates. The Democrats are definitely pushing the abortion issue. There does not seem to be a lot of polling for the Hoosier State though. I think the Republican candidate will win, but I think that race has the potential to be closer than many expect, and will be an early topic of discussion on Tuesday, as polls close very early in Indiana.

My past Gubernatorial prediction record:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%) 

2022: 34-2 (94%)

U.S. House Predictions: Washington- Wyoming

 6 Days Until Election Day

Washington

1. Suzan DelBene D (Biden 64%)- Safe D

2. Rick Larsen D (Biden 60%)- Safe D

3. Marie Glusenkamp Perez D (Trump 51%)- Tossup (R)

4. Dan Newhouse R (Trump 57%)- Safe R/Tossup (Newhouse)

5. Open (Cathy McMorris Rodgers R)- (Trump 54%)- Leans R

6. Open (Derek Kilmer D)- (Biden 57%)- Likely D

7. Pramila Jayapal D (Biden 87%)- Safe D

8. Kim Schrier D (Biden 52%)- Likely D

9. Adam Smith D (Biden 71%)- Safe D/Safe Smith

10. Marilyn Strickland D (Biden 57%)- Likely D

WA current: 8 D, 2 R

WA predicted: 7 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 212 D,  212 R

Predicted:

218 D (129 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

206 R (118 Safe, 54 Likely, 20 Leans, 14 Tossup)

__________________________________________________________

 

West Virginia

 

1. Carol Miller R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

2. Open (Alex Mooney R)- (Trump 68%)- Likely R

WV current: 0 D, 2 R

WV predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 212 D, 214 R

Predicted:

218 D (129 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

208 R (119 Safe, 55 Likely, 20 Leans, 14 Tossup)

______________________________________________________________

 

Wisconsin

 

1. Bryan Steil R (Trump 50%)- Leans R

2. Mark Pocan D (Biden 70%)- Safe D

3. Derrick Van Orden R (Trump 51%)- Tossup (R)

4. Gwen Moore D (Biden 76%)- Safe D

5. Scott Fitzgerald R (Trump 61%)-Safe R

6. Glenn Grothman R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

7. Tom Tiffany R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

8. Vacant (Mike Gallagher R)-(Trump 57%)- Leans R (Regular and Special)

WI current: 2 D, 6 R

WI predicted: 2 D, 6 R

Current total: 214 D, 220 R

Predicted:

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

214 R (120 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

_________________________________________________________________

 

Wyoming

 

 1. Harriet Hageman R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R

WY predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 214 D, 221 R

Predicted:

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

215 R (121 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF SIX SEATS

U.S. House Predictions: Utah- Virginia

 7 Days Until Election Day

Utah

1. Blake Moore R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

2. Celeste Maloy R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

3. Open (John Curtis R)- (Trump 58%)- Likely R

4. Burgess Owens R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

UT current: 0 D, 4 R

UT predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 197 D, 205 R

Predicted:

204 D (120 Safe, 41 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

198 R (116 Safe, 52 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)

__________________________________________________________________________

 

Vermont

 

 1. Becca Balint D (Biden 66%)- Safe D

VT current: 1 D, 0 R

VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 198 D, 205 R

Predicted:

205 D (121 Safe, 41 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

198 R (116 Safe, 52 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________ 

Virginia

1. Rob Wittman R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

2. Jen Kiggans R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (R)

3. Bobby Scott D (Biden 68%)- Safe D

4. Jennifer McClellan D (Biden 67%)- Safe D

5. Open (Bob Good R)- (Trump 53%)- Likely R

6. Ben Cline R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

7. Open (Abigail Spanberger D)- (Biden 53%)- Tossup (D)

8. Don Beyer D (Biden 77%)- Safe D

9. Morgan Griffith R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

10. Open (Jennifer Wexton D)- (Biden 58%)- Leans D

11. Gerry Connolly D (Biden 70%)- Safe D

VA current: 6 D, 5 R

VA predicted: 6 D, 5 R

Current total: 204 D, 210 R

Predicted:

211 D (125 Safe, 41 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

203 R (117 Safe, 54 Likely, 19 Leans, 13 Tossup)

NFL Week 8 Results and Week 9 Games

 8 Days Until Election Day

NOT PREDICTIONS

Week 8

1. Vikings (5-1) at Rams (2-4) W 1

2. Ravens (5-2) at Browns (1-6) W 2

3. Titans (1-5) at Lions (5-1) L 1

4. Colts (4-3) at Texans (5-2) W 3

5. Packers (5-2) at Jaguars (2-5) L 2

6.  Cardinals (3-4) at Dolphins (2-4) L 3

7. Jets (2-5) at Patriots (1-6) W 4

8. Falcons (4-3) at Buccaneers (4-3) W 5

9. Eagles (4-2) at Bengals (3-4) L 4

10. Saints (2-5) at Chargers (3-3) W 6

11. Bills (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3) W 7

12. Bears (4-2) at Commanders (5-2) L 5

13. Panthers (1-6) at Broncos (4-3) W 8

14. Chiefs (6-0) at Raiders (2-5) W 9

15. Cowboys (3-3) at 49ers (3-4) W 10

 

16. Giants (2-5) at Steelers (5-2) W 11

Let me just say, that Bears loss on the Hail Mary, after having what looked like a great comeback victory assured was one of the most inexplicable and crushing NFL defeats I can ever remember. I can compare the feeling Bears fans had yesterday, near the nation's capital, to how about half of the country will feel next week when the election results start coming in.

Week 8 Results: 11-5 (69%)

Overall Results: 67-55 (55%)

_________________________________________________________________________

Week 9

NOT PREDICTIONS

 

1. Texans (6-2) at Jets (2-6)

 

 

 

2. Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3)

3. Broncos (5-3) at Ravens (5-3)

4. Dolphins (2-5) at Bills (6-2)

5. Saints (2-6) at Panthers (1-7)

6. Raiders (2-6) at Bengals (3-5)

7. Chargers (4-3) at Browns (2-6)

8. Commanders (6-2) at Giants (2-6)

9. Patriots (2-6) at Titans (1-6)

10. Bears (4-3) at Cardinals (4-4)

11. Jaguars (2-6) at Eagles (5-2)

12.  Lions (6-1) at Packers (6-2)  (This is almost as bad for me as Trump vs. Harris)

13.  Rams (3-4) at Seahawks (4-4)

14. Colts (4-4) at Vikings (5-2)

15. Buccaneers (4-4) at Chiefs (7-0)

U.S. House Predictions: Texas

 9 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Nathaniel Moran R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

2. Dan Crenshaw R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

3. Keith Self R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

4. Pat Fallon R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

5. Lance Gooden R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

6. Jake Ellzey R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

7. Lizzie Fletcher D (Biden 64%)- Likely D

8. Morgan Luttrell R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

9. Al Green D (Biden 76%)- Safe D

10. Michael McCaul R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

11. August Pfluger R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

12. Open (Kay Granger R)-  (Trump 58%)- Safe R

13. Ronny Jackson R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

14. Randy Weber R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

15. Monica De La Cruz R (Trump 51%)- Leans R

16. Veronica Escobar D (Biden 67%)- Likely D

17. Pete Sessions R (Trump 61%)- Likely R

18. Vacant (Sheila Jackson Lee D)- (Biden 74%)- Safe D (Regular and Special)

19. Jodey Arrington R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

20. Joaquin Castro D (Biden 66%)- Safe D

21. Chip Roy R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

22. Troy Nehls R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

23. Tony Gonzales R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

24. Beth Van Duyne R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

25. Roger Williams R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

26. Open (Michael Burgess R)- (Trump 59%)- Likely R

27. Michael Cloud R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

28. Henry Cuellar D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

29. Sylvia Garcia D (Biden 68%)- Safe D

30. Jasmine Crockett D (Biden 78%)- Safe D

31. John Carter R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

32. Open (Colin Allred D)- (Biden 66%)- Likely D

33. Marc Veasey D (Biden 74%)- Safe D

34. Vicente Gonzalez D (Biden 57%)- Leans D

35. Greg Casar D (Biden 72%)- Safe D

36. Brian Babin R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

37. Lloyd Doggett D (Biden 75%)- Safe D

38. Wesley Hunt R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

TX current: 13 D, 25 R

TX predicted: 13 D, 25 R

Current total: 197 D, 201 R

Predicted:

204 D (120 Safe, 41 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

194 R (115 Safe, 49 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)

White House Race- October 26, 2024

 10 Days Until Election Day

The countdown continues yet Election Day has already been underway throughout the country. More and more people are early voting and having their votes locked in. Political junkies and partisans pour over the data as it exists in who is early voting in the states that have registration by party. Four years ago, Donald Trump discouraged people from early voting, telling them to wait until Election Day. However, his supporters are likely voting early in heavy numbers and MAGA acolytes seem absolutely giddy about their electoral prospects. This will of course mean that the Election Day turnout itself will be down.

Early voting numbers, polls, online political betting market, computer probability models, etc. etc. All of these things are being looked at as people want to know who really has the edge in the final days of this campaign. Frankly, I do not think we have any idea and will not know until the votes come in. It is hard to deny though that the polls look better for Trump than they did in either 2016 or 2020, when they wound up underestimating his support. The polls also looked good for Republicans in the 2022 midterms, when they wound up underperforming. Have pollsters adjusted to more accurately capture the Trump vote? Have they compensated too much leading his numbers to be artificially high?  As I talked about two years ago, there are a lot of Republican affiliated, newer, polling groups that are showing good numbers for their candidate. Are they creating a false impression? They definitely seem to be designed to get people clicking on links and talking about them on social media. Trump backers love to mention the polls they like and rush to their phones or keyboards to say "Boom" or "landslide coming." They seem way overconfident to me, but at the same time, Democrats, who probably should be very concerned, especially after what they went through in 2016, might be in denial also. The truth is probably somewhere in between. The seven swing states appear to be tied, especially the three in the Rust Belt, that will really hold the key. As some have noted, if the polling is off, even a little, the same candidate, will probably win just about all the swing states at the end, and that could bring about a result that will resemble a very solid Electoral College victory. In a way, we should probably hope for that I suppose. I also think it is important to keep in mind that Democrats might have a significant advantage in the "ground game" while Republicans are relying on outside groups or people like Elon Musk to get their voters to the polls. I am unfortunately reminded that during a very close election in 2012, Mitt Romney's campaign was supposed to have a very sophisticated turnout operation, and that wound up plagued by problems on Election Day.

Next week, either on Saturday or Sunday, I will formally predict the Election Result state by state. There is still a lot to consider before then. I just know that it has not been a great October for Democrats. They had a pretty great August and September, and compared to the status of the campaign before that, should be grateful, but they should have been able to close the deal in October, especially after the one Donald Trump/Kamala Harris debate and that has not happened. People must just have a very short attention span or poor memory to have kept Trump in the game after that debate performance. No wonder he has refused to do another. The Vice Presidential debate, while typically not all that important in a campaign, turned into a missed opportunity for Democrats. 

Kamala Harris has strengths as a candidate. For one thing, she is not 81 year Joe Biden, with an approval rating in the low 40s. She is also pretty good at her rallies. However, she has a lot of political weaknesses as well, For one thing, she is the second in command to 81 year old Joe Biden with an approval rating in the low 40s. That is the main reason this race is close. Democrats, including the candidate herself,  still are unable (or more likely unwilling) to acknowledge that Biden's economic policies are just not popular. Biden should never have run for reelection and when he did, he stayed in the race too long. Harris was suddenly thrust into a position as the automatic nominee in a way that had both benefits and perils. The early week saw her way too reluctant to speak in any sort of unscripted way or interact with the media. That has changed, and the results have been middling. Perhaps, she is just not good at that aspect of politics, which means that if elected, she might have a tough time ever being popular, or she needed more practice early on. This week, she did a CNN Town Hall with undecided voters in Pennsylvania. Moderator Anderson Cooper was pretty professional and fair in trying to hold her accountable, and of course has been attacked by the left for daring to do his job,

During this event, Harris was not abysmal, but still struggled to do the things that should be easy. She had a hard time admitting any sort of "weakness" which is always the question one is asked in any sort of job interview that an applicant must know how to navigate in a savvy way. When asked about high grocery prices, she almost immediately started talking about her housing plan. It really had no relevance to the question. She just seems programmed to give her talking points no matter what.and it comes across in not a great way. We can all scoff at the concept of the "undecided voter" or the person who says they "need to know more about the candidate's plans" when political people certainly have a grasp on what those plans are, but that is how those people think. I believe just about all undecided voters are looking for a reason, any reason, to vote against Trump, but they want to feel comfortable with Harris first, and she has been falling short on that. As demonstrated by her refusal to admit mistakes either personally on behalf of the Biden Administration, she is just another politician who refuses to give an inch because it would mean the other tribe "owns"them, at least temporarily in a small way.

Can Harris win? Absolutely. As of today, I think it is very slightly more likely than not, but it should certainly not be this close. The closing message will be, since there is probably no other route that they are good at, in attacking Trump. The campaign started off being one about "vibes" and "joy" but now is back to being one of fear. Abortion and a "threat to democracy" are going to be a huge part of that. That is what Democrats ran on in 2022 and I remember thinking they were overdoing it, but it did actually work for them in the end. With Trump actually on the ballot though, it might be a different story. Is there really anything that can be said about him that "swing voters" do not already know? Does it really matter to anyone at this point that he might have groped a model at a Jeffrey Epstein part  many years ago? This is just a very precarious situation and we will not know the answer until after the election.

 

There is much blowback within and at newspapers such as the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times which had Kamala Harris endorsements written and ready to publish, only to have those scuttled, for whatever reason, by the newspaper owners. That is of course the prerogative of the person who writes the checks, but it seems very unseemly. Are they that worried about Trump taking punitive action against them if he wins? Apparently so.  While newspaper endorsements of candidates might matter in little noticed local elections, I cannot imagine there is one person in America who was going to vote for Harris, but now will not, because the WaPo or LA Times did not formally endorse her,

The word "fascist" played a big part this week. I do not know how much it should matter, but it definitely should. Harris is now openly agreeing that Trump is a fascist. To MAGA, this is an outrage, a call for violence against Trump, and all sorts of unforgivable things. They seem to ignore the fact that Trump has been and continues to call his political opponents fascists and communists, and all sorts of things like that for years now. It is the ultimate in ridiculous double standards.

Former Trump White House Chief of Staff, General John Kelly, does not go in front of television cameras, but we now have audio of him admitting Trump qualifies as a fascist and confirmation he did and said all sorts of incredibly horrible things when he was President, related to the military, and the powers he wished he had. The big thing was that he said he wanted generals "like Hitler had." His backers deny all of this and somehow twist the story to say that Trump himself if being called Hitler. That is untrue and I also doubt that very many of them truly believe he did not say these things. They either do not care or want to gloss over it. I for one have never been able to and never will.

 

I will also say though that claims such as those recently made by Hillary Clinton that Trump's upcoming Madison Square Garden is somehow an intentional call to mimic the famous 1939 rally held at the old MSG by the American Nazi Party is way off and serves no helpful purpose. Trump may well be a fascist but that is not why he is holding a rally there. He simply is a New Yorker who wants to do such a thing for vanity and is way too overconfident about winning that he will waste time in New York instead of an actual swing state. This appearance of Hillary Clinton on CNN was not good for her or her party.

 

Does Trump know the definition of "fascist?"  He is probably not smart enough or curious enough intellectually to really know what it all means. However, he openly admires dictators and seems quite willing to admit that he believes he comes before the Constitution and all loyalty should be pledged to him above all else. Trump has always been about himself and nothing but himself. Whether he would open gulags is not the question. The question should be how we could possibly elect anyone who might even consider if they have the right to do it.

Many Americans may be distracted this week by the high profile World Series between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Major League Baseball is definitely happy about such a match-up. Last night saw the Dodgers win on a walk-off extra innings Grand Slam, a Fall Classic first, but very much a reminder of the famous Kirk Gibson walk off home run in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series. Not long after the Dodgers won that Series, the Vice President of the United States won a Presidential election and I am actually old enough to remember it all. (For the record, I am inclined to root for the Yankees this year, just because of Cubs great Anthony Rizzo being on the team.)

Baseball will end though in the days ahead and the time of reckoning will be here. What Americans decide will say much about ourselves. You cannot say we will not be warned. To be certain, Trump's "closing message" is also very dark, focused heavily on attacking immigrants. This week, he seemed proud of himself for using the comparison of "garbage can" to describe America. Could any other candidate ever get away with saying such a thing? The people who applaud him would have lost their minds if a Democrat had ever used that term to describe the United States of America.

Yes, we need to do a better job in securing our border against illegal immigration and combating crime, regardless of the source, but America, this land of immigrants, is not a "garbage can." It always has been and should always remain the "Shining City on a Hill" and a beacon of freedom for all who yearn to come here. 

A Reagan conservative such as myself is confounded that after all these years, someone like Trump is still a risk to harm this country. I will do my best to remain confident that Americans will do the right thing in a few days and the threat will fade.  Anybody who speaks about this country being a "garbage can" belongs on the political ash heap of history and that was on my mind when I cast my vote today.

U.S. House Predictions: Pennsylvania-Tennessee

 11 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania

1. Brian Fitzpatrick R (Biden 52%)- Leans R

2. Brendan Boyle D (Biden 71%)- Safe D

3. Dwight Evans D (Biden 90%)- Safe D

4. Madeleine Dean D (Biden 59%)- Likely D

5. Mary Gay Scanlon D (Biden 66%)- Safe D

6. Chrissy Houlahan D (Biden 57%)- Likely D

7. Susan Wild D (Biden 50%)- Tossup (D)

8. Matt Cartwright D (Trump 51%)- Leans D

9. Dan Meuser R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

10. Scott Perry R (Trump 51%)- Tossup (D)

11. Lloyd Smucker R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

12. Summer Lee D (Biden 59%)- Likely D

13. John Joyce R (Trump 72%)- Safe R

14. Guy Reschenthaler R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

15. Glenn Thompson R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

16. Mike Kelly R (Trump 60%)- Likely R

17. Chris Deluzio D (Biden 52%)- Leans D

PA current: 9 D, 8 R

PA predicted: 10 D, 7 R

Current total : 180 D, 161 R

Predicted:

187 D (110 Safe, 36 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

154 R ( 92 Safe, 35 Likely, 15 Leans, 12 Tossup)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Rhode Island

1. Gabe Amo D (Biden 64%)- Safe D

2. Seth Magaziner D (Biden 56%)- Likely D

RI total: 2 D, 0 R

RI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 182 D, 161 R

Predicted:

189 D (111 Safe, 37 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

154 R ( 92 Safe, 35 Likely, 15 Leans, 12 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

South Carolina

1. Nancy Mace R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

2. Joe Wilson R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

3. Open (Jeff Duncan R)- (Trump 68%)- Safe R

4. William Timmons R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

5. Ralph Norman R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

6. Jim Clyburn D (Biden 65%)- Likely D

7. Ruissell Fry R (Trump 59%)- Likely R

SC current: 1 D, 6 R

SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 183 D, 167 R

Predicted:

190 D (111 Safe, 38 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

160 R ( 94 Safe, 38 Likely, 16 Leans, 12 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

South Dakota

 

1. Dusty Johnson R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

SD current: 0 D, 1 R

SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 183 D, 168 R

Predicted:

190 D (111 Safe, 38 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

161 R ( 95 Safe, 38 Likely, 16 Leans, 12 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Tennessee

 

1. Diana Harshbarger R (Trump 76%)- Safe R

2. Tim Burchett R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

3. Chuck Fleischmann R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

4. Scott DesJarlais R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

5. Andy Ogles R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

6. John Rose R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

7. Mark Green R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

8. David Kustoff R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

9. Steve Cohen D (Biden 73%)- Safe D

TN current: 1 D, 8 R

TN predicted: 1 D, 8 R

Current total: 184 D, 176 R

Predicted:

191 D (112 Safe, 38 Likely, 26 Leans, 15 Tossup)

169 R (101 Safe, 40 Likely, 16 Leans, 12 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: North Carolina- Oregon

 12 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina

 

Note: North Carolina is one of the states that has a new Congressional map since the 2022 elections. Thus, as I would after a post-census redistricting cycle, I am presenting the information specifically related to the new districts, while also listing the current totals under the outgoing North Carolina map.

1. Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckout R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (D)

2. Deborah Ross D vs. Alan Swain R (Biden 67%) - Safe D

3. Greg Murphy R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Eric Blankenburg R (Biden 72%)- Safe D

5. Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

6. Addison McDowell R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

7. Marlando Pridgen D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 55%)- Safe R

8. Justin Dues D vs. Mark Harris R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

9. Nigel Bristow D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

10. Ralph Scott D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

11. Caleb Rudow D vs Chuck Edwards R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

12. Alma Adams D vs. Addul Ali R (Biden 74%)- Safe D

13. Frank Pierce D vs. Brad Knott R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

14. Pam Genant D vs. Tim Moore R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

NC current: 7 D, 7 R

NC predicted: 4 D, 10 R

Current total: 162 D, 135 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)

130 R ( 75 Safe,  29 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

_____________________________________________________________________

 

North Dakota

 

1. Open (Kelly Armstrong R)- (Trump 65%)- Likely R

ND current: 0 D, 1 R

ND predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 162 D, 136 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)

131 R ( 75 Safe,  30 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

 

Ohio

 

1. Greg Landsman D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

2. Open (Brad Wenstrup R)- (Trump 72%)- Safe R

3. Joyce Beatty D (Biden 71%)- Safe D

4. Jim Jordan R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

5. Bob Latta R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

6. Michael Rulli R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

7. Max Miller R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

8. Warren Davidson R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

9. Marcy Kapter D (Trump 51%)- Leans D

10. Mike Turner R (Trump 51%)- Likely R

11. Shontel Brown D (Biden 78%)- Safe D

12. Troy Balderson R (Trump 65%)- Safe R

13. Emilia Sykes D (Biden 51%)- Leans D

14. Dave Joyce R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

15. Mike Carey R (Trump 53%)- Likely R

OH current: 5 D, 10 R

OH predicted: 5 D, 10 R

Current total: 167 D, 146 R

Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)

141 R ( 82 Safe,  33 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________

Oklahoma

 

1. Kevin Hern R (Trump 59%)- Safe R

2. Josh Brecheen R (Trump 76%)- Safe R

3. Frank Lucas R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

4. Tom Cole R (Trump 64%)- Safe R

5. Stephanie Bice R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R

OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 167 D, 151 R

 

Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)

146 R ( 86 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

________________________________________________________________________

Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Biden 68%)- Safe D

2. Cliff Bentz R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

3. Open (Earl Blumenauer D)- (Biden 73%)- Safe D

4. Val Hoyle D (Biden 55%)- Leans D

5. Lori Chavez-DeRemer R (Biden 53%)- Tossup (D)

6. Andrea Salinas D (Biden 55%)- Leans D

OR current: 4 D, 2 R

OR predicted: 5 D, 1 R

Current total: 171 D, 153 R

Predicted:

177 D (107 Safe, 33 Likely, 24 Leans, 13 Tossup)

147 R ( 87 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

U.S. House Predictions: New Mexico- New York

 13 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico

1. Melanie Stansbury D (Biden 56%)- Likely D

2. Gabe Vazquez D (Biden 52%)- Leans D

3. Teresa Leger Fernandez D (Biden 54%)- Likely D

NM current: 3 D, 0 R

NM predicted: 3 D, 0 R

Current total: 139 D, 118 R

Predicted:

144 D (87 Safe, 31 Likely, 16 Leans, 10 Tossup)

113 R (67 Safe, 23 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)

____________________________________________________________________________________

 

New York

 

1. Nick LaLota R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (R)

2. Andrew Garbarino R (Trump 50%)- Leans R

3. Tom Suozzi D (Biden 54%)- Likely D

4. Anthony D'Esposito R (Biden 57%)- Leans D

5. Gregory Meeks D (Biden 81%)- Safe D

6. Grace Meng D (Biden 65%)- Safe D

7. Nydia Velazquez D (Biden 81%)- Safe D

8. Hakeem Jeffries D (Biden 76%)- Safe D

9. Yvette Clarke D (Biden 75%)- Safe D

10. Dan Goldman D (Biden 85%)- Safe D

11. Nicole Malliotakis R (Trump 53%)- Likely R

12. Jerry Nadler D (Biden 85%)- Safe D

13. Adriano Espaillat D (Biden 88%)- Safe D

14. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D (Biden 78%)- Safe D

15. Ritchie Torres D (Biden 85%)- Safe D

16. Open (Jamaal Bowman D)- (Biden 71%)- Safe D

17. Mike Lawler R (Biden 54%)- Tossup (R)

18. Pat Ryan D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

19. Marc Molinaro R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (D)

20. Paul Tonko D (Biden 59%)- Safe D

21. Elise Stefanik R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

22. Brandon Williams R (Biden 53%)- Leans D

23. Nick Langworthy R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

24. Claudia Tenney R (Trump 57%)- Safe R

25. Joe Morelle D (Biden 59%)- Likely D

26. Tim Kennedy D (Biden 61%)- Safe D

NY current: 16 D, 10 R

NY predicted: 19 D, 7 R

Current total: 155 D, 128 R

Predicted:

163 D (100 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 11 Tossup)

120 R ( 69 Safe,  25 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)

 

NFL Week 7 Results and Week 8 Games

 14 Days Until Election Day

NOT PREDICTIONS

Week 7

1. Broncos (3-3) at Saints (2-4) W 1

2. Patriots (1-5) vs Jaguars (1-5) in London W 2

3. Seahawks (3-3) at Falcons (4-2) W 3

4. Titans (1-4) at Bills (4-2) W 4

5. Bengals (2-4) at Browns (1-5) L 1

6. Texans (5-1) at Packers (4-2) L 2

7. Dolphins (2-3) at Colts (3-3) L 3

8. Lions (4-1) at Vikings (5-0) W 5

9. Eagles (3-2) at Giants (2-4) L 4

10. Raiders (2-4) at Rams (1-4) L 5

11. Panthers (1-5) at Commanders (4-2) L 6

12. Chiefs (5-0) at 49ers (3-3) W 6

13. Jets (2-4) at Steelers (4-2) W 7

14. Ravens (4-2) at Buccaneers (4-2) W 8

15. Chargers (3-2) at Cardinals (2-4) L 6

Week 7 Results: 8-6 (57%)

Overall Results: 56-50 (53%)

__________________________________________________________

Week 8

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Vikings (5-1) at Rams (2-4)

2. Ravens (5-2) at Browns (1-6)

3. Titans (1-5) at Lions (5-1)

4. Colts (4-3) at Texans (5-2)

5. Packers (5-2) at Jaguars (2-5)

6.  Cardinals (3-4) at Dolphins (2-4)

7. Jets (2-5) at Patriots (1-6)

8. Falcons (4-3) at Buccaneers (4-3)

9. Eagles (4-2) at Bengals (3-4)

10. Saints (2-5) at Chargers (3-3)

11. Bills (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)

12. Bears (4-2) at Commanders (5-2)

13. Panthers (1-6) at Broncos (4-3)

14. Chiefs (6-0) at Raiders (2-5)

15. Cowboys (3-3) at 49ers (3-4)

 

16. Giants (2-5) at Steelers (5-2)

U.S. House Predictions: Montana- New Jersey

 15 Days Until Election Day

Montana

1. Ryan Zinke R (Trump 52%)- Leans R

2. Open (Matt Rosendale R)- (Trump 62%)- Safe R

MT current: 0 D, 2 R

MT predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 122 D, 111 R

Predicted:

126 D (82 Safe, 24 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)

107 R (65 Safe, 20 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)

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Nebraska

 

1. Mike Flood R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

2. Don Bacon R (Biden 52%) - Tossup (D)

3. Adrian Smith R (Trump 75%)- Safe R

NE current: 0 D, 3 R

NE predicted: 1 D, 2 R

Current total: 122 D, 114 R

Predicted:

127 D (82 Safe, 24 Likely, 11 Leans, 10 Tossup)

109 R (66 Safe, 21 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)

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Nevada

1. Dina Titus D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

2. Mark Amodei R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

3. Susie Lee D (Biden 52%)- Leans D

4. Steven Horsford D (Biden 53%)- Leans D

NV current: 3 D, 1 R

NV predicted: 3 D, 1 R

Current total: 125 D, 115 R

Predicted:

130 D (82 Safe, 24 Likely, 14 Leans, 10 Tossup)

110 R (66 Safe, 22 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)

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New Hampshire

1. Chris Pappas D (Biden 52%)- Leans D

2. Open (Ann McLane Kuster D)- (Biden 54%)- Likely D

NH current: 2 D, 0 R

NH predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 127 D, 115 R

Predicted:

132 D (82 Safe, 25 Likely, 15 Leans, 10 Tossup)

110 R (66 Safe, 22 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)

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New Jersey

 

1. Donald Norcross D (Biden 62%)- Safe D

2. Jeff Van Drew R (Trump 52%)- Likely R

3. Open (Andy Kim D)- (Biden 56%)- Likely D

4. Chris Smith R (Trump 61%)- Safe R

5. Josh Gottheimer D (Biden 56%)- Likely D

6. Frank Pallone D (Biden 59%)- Likely D

7. Tom Kean Jr. R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (R)

8. Rob Menendez D (Biden 72%)- Safe D

9. Vacant (Bill Pascrell D)-(Biden 59%)- Likely D

10. LaMonica McIver D (Biden 81%)- Safe D

11. Mikie Sherrill D (Biden 58%)- Safe D

12. Bonnie Watson Coleman D (Biden 67%)- Safe D

NJ current: 9 D, 3 R

NJ predicted: 9 D, 3 R

 

Current total: 136 D, 118 R

 

Predicted:

141 D (87 Safe, 29 Likely, 15 Leans, 10 Tossup)

113 R (67 Safe, 23 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)