2 Days Until Election Day
The Final Edition
We about there. Finally. The Campaign of 2024 has in many ways been predictable in many ways but also extremely historic in many regards with some wild twists and turns. It also appears, at least on the surface, to be the closest election in recent history. We all know that the 2000 and 2016 votes wound up being extremely close, but going into Election Day, there was a clear favorite, that did and did not win in the end, respectively. One might have to go back to 1976 or perhaps 1960 to have an outcome that will be considered this in doubt, with hours to go. I was not born yet.
In a few days, the final votes will be cast and by the time the sun comes up on Wednesday morning, we might have an idea if things look promising for either Kamala Devi Harris (Emhoff) the 49th Vice President of the United States or Donald John Trump Sr., the 45th President of the United States. One of them will become the 47th President of the United States. I very much wish there was a better option. However, the future of America is connected to the worse man losing. Will that happen? We will know soon enough, but it may take weeks of recounts and lawsuits before we truly know. One way or another, Trump will declare victory on Tuesday night and will never concede defeat, if he is defeated. So much of this is on us as Americans. We will get the President we deserve but that at least half the country will not want. There are some anxious times ahead for America in the time before the final polls close and in the time that will come after. Someone will be sworn in on January 20th, 2025 and I still believe we will have a free and fair election four years from now.
So much has happened since I last wrote about this race eight days ago. I cannot possibly recap it all. In many ways, it is irrelevant. People have made up their minds about who Donald Trump is. Many will proudly vote for him. It is hard to believe that, but those people are our fellow Americans. Many will also reluctantly vote for him, if nothing else than to keep his opponent and her party out of office. Those who do not know at this point, will either vote for Harris or will vote for neither.
Will anything at this late date truly matter?
A raucous and offensive Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden where a campaign approved insult comic said all sorts of nasty things but received most notice for calling Puerto Rico an "island of garbage." The current President of the United States an elderly and gaffe prone man, speaking on a Zoom call, calling that comedian "garbage" but in such a mangled way to allow Republicans to insist he was labeling all Trump supporter with that insult. To me, it seems clear what Joe Biden was saying, but in politics "if you are explaining you are losing", and this was not what the Harris campaign wanted, especially as it got in the way of her big speech at the Ellipse, the sight of Donald Trump's call to his supporters to "fight like hell" moments before the January 6 riots. History will have much to say about President Biden and his role in this campaign, and how he affected the final outcome,but clearly for those who want to keep Trump from winning, he should stay away from cameras or microphones. At a Halloween event, the President also playfully "bit" several costumed babies. Why should Commander and Major have gotten all the Administration Biting fun?
While many people, especially Latinos might have been genuinely offended by Tony Hichcliffe's style of roast comedy, the Trump campaign probably only appealed to their "very online" base by screaming bloody murder about the Biden comments. Trump showed up at a rally on a garbage trunk, after struggling to open its door, and then gave a speech wearing an orange vest. He looked like the Crossing Guard from the Village People and and got to dance to his favorite YMCA song in that Halloween costume. Later on in the week, Trump seemed to manifest some other latent desires at a microphone. Trump supporters have taken to wearing garbage bags the last few days. I do not think any swing voter will really care.
Trump said a lot of weird and frankly horrible things at his rallies this week. It seems like the pressure of the closing days of this campaign might be getting to him. Will it sway any voters? I think if someone is genuinely torn whether to stay at home or vote against him, it might. He said he would "protect women" if they "liked it or not." Quite a thing for an adjudicated sexual assaulter to say. He despicably and (quite illogically) called Republican stalwart turned Harris supporter Liz Cheney a "radical warhawk" and spoke of an ugly scenario in which nine rifles were trained at her face. The bone spur deferment recipient said he was only saying she would not support Americans in combat if she also had to face combat, as if 58 year old women are placed in combat. The way he talked about it though sounded far more like an execution scenario. Considering the violent climate we live in, one would have hoped that Trump,who has been shot at himself, would not have said something so horrible. He is every bit that horrible of a person though. Today, he seemed to suggest he would be ok if a would be assailant shot the members of the media at his rally. As for the Cheney remark, it really is ridiculous. For one thing, she is not her father Dick Cheney, and Dick Cheney, as Vice President, was not President George W. Bush,whom despite his critics, worked every day to keep Americans safe, especially after we were attacked by terrorists on 9/11/01. What Trump said has been said before, but always by the radical left-wing fringe of Democrats. How can Republicans defend him? Nearly every Republican on Capitol Hill disagrees with Trump on foreign policy, and would side with their ex-colleague Liz Cheney, but yet they are forced to defend him. Also, nobody has advocated more bombings of more countries, including military action in Mexico, than Trump. Liz Cheney has nothing on Trump as a "warmonger" but Reagan conservatives should take a very hard look at how Trump approaches national security matters and the United States Armed Forces.
Both sides have been and are continuing to push anything they can, perhaps even to distorted lengths, to get their base riled up at the other side, and their allies in the media, on both sides, are going along with it. One way or another, a whole lot of Americans are going to be shocked, dismayed, and disillusioned by the results of this election. I can take some solace, though it is one I probably should not, in the fact that the some deserving people are going to be very upset emotionally in the near future.
There was so much more this week, but I cannot get into it all. Who will turn out to vote? That is what we are waiting to find out. Will Trump succeed in turning out low propensity young males who love his professional wrestling persona and get their news on podcasts? Or will the Call of Duty bros stay home on Tuesday to play video games instead? Will Harris succeed in getting a lot of older independent women to vote for her because they are either upset over the abortion issue or just genuinely sick and tired of Trump? Are there a lot of Republicans who were Nikki Haley voters or who did not even bother to vote in the primaries this year, who also just want to be rid of Trump? It is very noteworthy that Trump never had Nikki Haley do anything for him in this general election, besides her convention speech. She has said she has been "on standby" but has not spoken to Trump since June. This could wind up being a huge source of regret for MAGA just like picking Tim Walz for Vice President instead of Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania could potentially wind up being a huge bit of regret for Democrats. If either of these things come to pass, Haley and Shapiro may move quickly to gain political advantage with an eye on 2028.
The polls still look very close, both nationally and in the swing states. All of the swing states. Yesterday, the highly anticipated Des Moines Register poll for Iowa was released, conducted by a highly respected professional Ann Selzer, who has a reputation of nearly always calling Iowa races on the money. Everyone was expecting Trump to be ahead in this Iowa poll, as was considered a very red state, but that the margin might reflect the national trend, or especially the status in battleground neighbors Michigan and Wisconsin. Lo and behold, the Selzer poll showed Harris up by 4 points in Iowa. Nobody at all was expecting that. The Trump crowd of course dismissed the results, and indeed I will be very surprised if Harris actually wins Iowa, but could this poll be on to a phenomenon in Iowa and other parts of the Midwest where women are moving towards Democrats in unanticipated numbers? These results definitely shook up the online political betting sights, which MAGA had been so fond of pointing to, as proof that Trump was headed to a big win.
One big question I have is how the national polls can be so close, yet Harris is also close or perhaps narrowly ahead in the swing states? Based on the last two cycles, the conventional wisdom has been that Democrats have an advantage in the national popular vote that might not automatically transfer to the Electoral College. I have definitely believed that myself. Others are speculating that our politics nationally have become so polarized that Trump might be gaining ground in high population states he will lose like California and New York as well as ones he is expected to win like Florida and Texas, and yet the seven battleground states will be relatively unaffected and will just vote more similarly to the national total. There are so many unanswered questions on this Sunday night especially as it relates to polling and all the tea leaves regarding the early votes that have already been cast. Also, what about the fact that Jill Stein and Cornel West are on some state ballots and might hurt the Democrat, despite her being female and black, and the fact that Trump endorser and potential "Health Czar" Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot in some places including Michigan, and might hurt the person who tells America he will listen to on vaccines and fluoride?
Of course I must now make my Electoral College predictions. As a matter of blog history, the first one I covered on here was in 2008 when unfortunately I correctly predicted the winner. Four years later, I went with my heart over my head perhaps and was wrong. In 2016, I also was wrong, as was nearly everyone else. In 2020, I got it right and was happy to see America fire Donald Trump.
I will start with the contests that I consider "Safe."
AL-Trump
AR- Trump
CA- Harris
CT- Harris
DE- Harris
DC- Harris
HI- Harris
ID- Trump
IL- Harris
KY- Trump
LA- Trump
ME CD 1- Harris
MD- Harris
MA- Harris
MS- Trump
MO- Trump
MT- Trump
NE CD 3- Trump
NJ- Harris
NY- Harris
ND- Trump
OK- Trump
OR- Harris
RI- Harris
SC- Trump
SD- Trump
TN- Trump
UT- Trump
VT- Harris
WA- Harris
WV- Trump
WY- Trump
Total thus far for "Safe"- 181 D, 102 R
Likely:
AK- Trump
CO- Harris
IN- Trump
KS- Trump
ME statewide- Harris
NE statewide- Trump
NE CD 1- Trump
NM- Harris
198 D, 125 R
Leans:
FL- Trump
IA- Trump
ME CD 2- Trump
MN- Harris
NE CD 2- Harris
NH- Harris
OH- Trump
TX- Trump
VA- Harris
226 D, 219 R
Finally, we get to the Tossups:
As I talked about last week, if the polling is off just a little, do not be surprised to see one candidate win all seven or perhaps six of these states. For now though, I see a more even distribution. Frankly, it makes things more 'fun" when we have to rely on polling data.
AZ- Trump
GA- Trump
MI- Harris
NV- Harris
NC- Trump
PA- Harris
WI- Harris
Prediction:
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (D)- 276 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump and JD Vance (R)- 262 Electoral Votes
I hope I am right, but there is nothing more I can do. This is mostly on Democrats to bring this victory home for their ticket. I did my part, even as I recognize the danger of the policies that might result.
In the words of Alexander Hamilton, and famously quoted by Ronald Reagan:
"A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one."
So much is on the line for the United States of America and the whole world. We cannot allow Donald J. Trump or any wannabe despot that follows to bring us disgrace and so help us G-d, he will never be the Master of this nation or its people.
