U.S. House Special Elections
Leans R
Ramblings of a Political Junkie
Ronald Reagan 1964:
"Those who would trade our freedom for the soup kitchen of the welfare
state have told us they have a utopian solution of peace without
victory. They call their policy "accommodation." And they say if we'll
only avoid any direct confrontation with the enemy, he'll forget his
evil ways and learn to love us. All who oppose them are indicted as
warmongers. They say we offer simple answers to complex problems. Well,
perhaps there is a simple answer - not an easy answer but simple: If you
and I have the courage to tell our elected officials that we want our
national policy based on what we know in our hearts is morally right.
We
cannot buy our security, our freedom from the threat of the bomb by
committing an immorality so great as saying to a billion human beings
now enslaved behind the Iron Curtain, "Give up your dreams of freedom
because to save our own skins, we're willing to make a deal with your
slave masters." Alexander Hamilton said, "A nation which can prefer
disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one." Now
let's set the record straight. There's no argument over the choice
between peace and war, but there's only one guaranteed way you can have
peace - and you can have it in the next second - surrender.
Admittedly,
there's a risk in any course we follow other than this, but every
lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement,
and this is the specter our well-meaning liberal friends refuse to face,
that their policy of accommodation is appeasement, and it gives no
choice between peace and war, only between fight or surrender. If we
continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat, eventually we
have to face the final demand, the ultimatum. And what then, when Nikita
Khrushchev has told his people he knows what our answer will be? He has
told them that we're retreating under the pressure of the Cold War, and
someday when the time comes to deliver the final ultimatum, our
surrender will be voluntary, because by that time we will have been
weakened from within spiritually, morally, and economically. He believes
this because from our side he's heard voices pleading for "peace at any
price" or "better Red than dead," or as one commentator put it, he'd
rather "live on his knees than die on his feet." And therein lies the
road to war, because those voices don't speak for the rest of us.
You
and I know and do not believe that life is so dear and peace so sweet
as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery. If nothing in
life is worth dying for, when did this begin - just in the face of this
enemy? Or should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in
slavery under the pharaohs? Should Christ have refused the cross? Should
the patriots at Concord Bridge have thrown down their guns and refused
to fire the shot heard 'round the world? The martyrs of history were not
fools, and our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of
the Nazis didn't die in vain. Where, then, is the road to peace? Well
it's a simple answer after all.
You and I have the courage to say
to our enemies, "There is a price we will not pay." "There is a point
beyond which they must not advance." And this - this is the meaning in
the phrase of Barry Goldwater's "peace through strength." Winston
Churchill said, "The destiny of man is not measured by material
computations. When great forces are on the move in the world, we learn
we're spirits - not animals." And he said, "There's something going on
in time and space, and beyond time and space, which, whether we like it
or not, spells duty."
You and I have a rendezvous with destiny.
We'll
preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or
we'll sentence them to take the last step into a thousand years of
darkness."
40-22
Despite a very narrow reelection two years earlier, Republican incumbent David Schweikert was able to benefit from a stronger than expected showing for his party in Arizona in the 2024 election. While he will continue to be a target moving forward, he defeated Democrat Amish Shah by about four points.
Well, Ann Selzer really had no idea what was going on in Iowa. Is she still being sued? If anyone should be suing her, it ought to be Democrats, and not Trump. In this district, Republican Marriannette Miller-Meeks, who first won her House seat by all of six votes in 2020, won a rematch against her 2022 opponent Christina Bonahan that many thought she would lose. While the Republican had won that match-up by over twenty-thousand votes in 2022, this time, the margin was less than one thousand. Still, a win is a win.
6. Nebraska 2nd District
Both of the two House districts that have its own individual Electoral College vote split their ballot in 2024 and I called both of them incorrectly. Here, Republican incumbent Don Bacon once again won enough crossover votes from people who also voted Democrat for President. In 2022, he defeated Democrat Tony Vargas 51-49 and in 2024, the margin was the same, albeit slightly closer. In the midterm of a second Donald Trump Presidency, Bacon might really be at risk (especially if the price of bacon is high) but Democrats could also probably user a fresher candidate.
7. Pennsylvania 7th District
Election 2024 turned out to be a rough one for Keystone State Democrats. One has to think it would have been at least a slightly better situation if Kamala Harris had chosen to run with Governor Josh Shapiro. For instance, this seat and perhaps a couple others might have gone blue and Hakeem Jeffries could be Speaker today. In 2018, Democrat Susan Wild had a pretty solid first victory. Her two reelection victories were increasingly tighter though and in 2024, she lost by one point to Republican Ryan Mackenize.
8. Pennsylvania 8th District
Here is one I got wrong and I had even called it as "Leans Democrat." So, to me, this would be the biggest upset in the entire cycle. Incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright's district had become more Republican than the one he was first elected to, but he had survived some recent close races. This cycle though, first time Republican candidate Rob Bresnahan beat him by nearly two points, with the national political environment likely providing the key factor.
9. Pennsylvania 10th District
While this is a fairly Republican district, incumbent Scott Perry looked to be very vulnerable by virtue of being seen as one of the most strident right-wingers in the House and questions about his views on the events of January 6, 2021. Voters though, seemed not to care all that much after all. While this was the closest call of Perry's career, he held on to defeat Democrat Janelle Stelson by just over five thousand votes. He clearly will be targeted again in 2026.
North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels vs. Connecticut Huskies
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I do hope that Buffalo wins, but other than that, I really do not have a strong preference as to what the other results are.
There is just one game left to pick a champion. This game will take place in the evening of a day in America in which a lot of people appreciate the opportunity for a diversion. The incoming Vice President has joked he will attend this game instead of his own swearing-in.
I will be rooting against his alma mater and for the Chicagolandish opponent, who is only in this game because my alma mater Northern Illinois, the eventual Potato Bowl champions, shook them up and handed them their only defeat. However, I have a suspicion that the winners of the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl may wind up losing in a blowout to the winners of the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl.
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We are now on to the National Semifinals. After seeing all four home teams win their on campus games, the next week saw all four teams that had a bye go down to defeat. The Sugar Bowl was postponed until the afternoon of January 2, because of the horrific terrorist attack in New Orleans that took 14 lives.
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Well, I did it. I correctly predicted every Gubernatorial result. I did the exact same thing in 2020. These were not exactly difficult races to predict, but it would be embarrassing if I had gotten any of them wrong, even the Tossup in New Hampshire. The people of North Carolina can be grateful the losing candidate lost.
In 2025, there could be two very competitive races in New Jersey and Virginia, although history would seem to favor the Democrats.
2024 Gubernatorial Results: 11-0 (100%)
Past Results:
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Hey, at least the Chicago Bears are not the worst team in the NFL. Maybe they can find a way to win more games next season.
16. Saints (5-9) at Packers (10-4) L 8
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Ready for Baseball season
North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels vs. Connecticut Huskies