Wednesday, November 05, 2025

NFL Week 10 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 

 Overall Results: 58-76 (43%)

 

1. Raiders (2-6) at Broncos (7-2)
 
 
 
2. .Falcons (3-5) vs Colts (7-2) in Berlin, Germany
3.  Saints (1-8) at Panthers (5-4)
4.  Giants (2-7) at Bears (5-3)
5.  Jaguars (5-3) at Texans (3-5)
6.  Bills (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7)
7.  Ravens (3-5) at Vikings (4-4)
8.  Browns (2-6) at Jets (1-7)
9.  Patriots (7-2) at Buccaneers (6-2)
10. Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (6-2)
11. Rams (6-2) at 49ers (6-3)
12. Lions (5-3) at Commanders (3-6)
13. Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (6-3)
 
14.  Eagles (6-2) at Packers (5-2-1)*
 
*whatever happens happens, Go Bears! 

Tuesday, November 04, 2025

NFL Week 9 Games and Dick Cheney Tribute

Vice President Richard B. Cheney was an extraordinary person and extraordinary leader. He devoted his career to the cause of freedom and in his final years showed what it meant to have the courage of one's convictions. It was an honor to shake his hand once 25 years ago. He will be missed.
 
Week 9

NOT PREDICTIONS
 
 
1. Ravens (2-5) at Dolphins (2-6) L 1
 
 
 
2.  Bears (4-3) at Bengals (3-5) W 1
3.  Vikings (3-4) at Lions (5-2) W 2
4.  Panthers (4-4) at Packers (5-1-1) W 3
5.  Broncos (6-2) at Texans (3-4) W 4
6.  Falcons (3-4) at Patriots (6-2) W 5
7.  49ers (5-3) at Giants (2-6) :L 2
8.  Colts (7-1) at Steelers (4-3) L 3
9.  Chargers (5-3) at Titans (1-7) L 4
10. Saints (1-7) at Rams (5-2) L 5
11. Jaguars (4-3) at Raiders (2-5) W 6
12.  Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (5-2) W 7
13.  Seahawks (5-2) at Commanders (3-5) L 6
 
14.  Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4-1) W 8
 
Week 9 Results:8-6 (57%)
Overall Results: 58-76 (43%)
 
 
 

Sunday, November 02, 2025

Virginia Governor Race

Virginia Governor
 
Status: Republican Open
2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (South)
 
Outlook: Likely Democrat
 
The race for Governor of New Jersey will likely be closer and the race for New York City Mayor will likely get many headlines, but in Virginia, Democrats can achieve an off-year election flip in taking over the Governor's Mansion. This would be in line with the decades long tradition of the party holding the White House losing this race the following year. A long streak was broken in 2013 when a Democrat narrowly won here despite having a member of the party as President. Many believed this was proof positive that Virginia had become a solidly blue state.
 
Thus, there was some surprise eight years later, after Joe Biden won the Presidency, when a comeback effort by the Democrat who had been elected Governor in 2013 fell short. Republican Glenn Youngkin won 51-49 in a campaign that kept then former President Donald Trump mostly out of the conversation. Democrat Terry McAuliffe's comeback bid was hurt by missteps such as on the issue of parental involvement in education. It is worth nothing that Virginia is the only state in the nation where a Governor is not allowed to seek a second consecutive term.
 
What that means is that Youngkin, who has fairly high job approval numbers is not eligible to run again. Instead, the party turned to the next in line, and current Lt. Governor. Youngkin's victory helped elect Winsome Earle-Sears (whom I do not believe was using the Earle name officially back then) in a separate election, as the Old Dominion does for Lt. Governor and Attorney General. In recent cycles, the same party has won all three offices together.Whether or not that is achieved this year will be a major story line.
 
Either Earle-Sears or her Democrat opponent will become the first female Governor of Virginia, which is also one of the few remaining states never to have a woman as a United States Senator. Born in Jamaica, Earle-Sears immigrated to the United States as a child and grew up in New York City. She went on to serve in the Marine Corps. For a couple of years, she served in the state House of Delegates before losing a Congressional bid in 2004 in a heavily Democrat district. With experience in business and appointed state government she ran as a write in candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018, after Republicans nominated a controversial candidate with ties to white nationalists.
 
In 2021, she won a contested Republican Party convention for Lt. Governor on the fifth ballot, and joined her ticket-mates in victory that November. While Earle-Sears had ties to many on the right socially in the state, she took positions at Lt. Governor that generated a lot of national attention as they related to Donald Trump. She basically called for him to not attempt to re-enter politics, saying he had become a "liability" to the party. Trump would successfully re-enter politics though and while Earle-Sears fell in line behind him, she is now running for Governor without the "full and complete" endorsement of the current President. That likely has much to do with her past criticism of him but it is also true that the nominee is a black female immigrant from a Caribbean country that Trump has denounced before.
 
As was the case with Virginia Republicans this year, a primary contest also did not develop among Democrats. The nomination went to Abigail Spanberger a former CIA officer. In 2018, Spanberger was among a host of female Democrat candidates elected to Congress, who had national security backgrounds and were seen as relatively moderate. In her case, Spanberger defeated an incumbent in a suburban district that had long been held by Republicans. She joined classmate Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey in being elected to Congress that year. Now, both women are nominees for Governor and Democrats will hope that much of the country looks at them as examples as compared to the controversial socialist nominee Zohran Mamdani, who seems poised to be elected Mayor of New York.
 
Spanberger won two competitive reelections in her district but did not seek a fourth term in 2024 as she openly focused on an upcoming Gubernatorial campaign. During her time in Congress, she took some steps to distance herself from Joe Biden on issues such as inflation and the border, but mostly has been in step with her party.
 
Despite Youngkin's win in 2021, Virginia is still considered a friendly state for Democrats, with numerous affluent government workers in the northern part of the state. Spanberger has led in polls throughout this campaign and has been well-funded. While Earle-Sears has an attractive backstory, she has had a reputation throughout her career and time as Lt. Governor as being a bit strident and sort of not always on message as a communicator. Facing long-odds in this race, the Republican has turned even more combative. Some of her television interviews were frankly embarrassing for her as she attempted to avoid questions regarding matters such as DOGE layoffs in the state or the current government shutdown and instead has tried to shift the focus to wedge issues such as transgender women in sports or public bathrooms. These are the kind of issues that the public has clearly taken issue with Democrats on and Spanberger has struggled at times with these questions, but there seems little reason to believe that swing voters place more importance on those over economic matters. In a debate the candidates had, Earle-Sears routinely interrupted her opponent and moderators. Supporters thought she scored points by being forceful and aggressive, while many others thought she was downright rude and disrespectful to all involved. It is another example of a candidate trying to follow the Trump lead while they wind up being held to higher scrutiny for the behavior.
 
The dynamics of this race have always pointed to a  turnover in party but some polls had at least showed a tightening race. As has been the case in New Jersey, (which is the state this candidate was born in), Spanberger has been described by some as running an overly cautious race and not doing much to energize core Democrat constituencies. Far more like Sherrill than Mamdani, Spanberger is far from the most charismatic politician but is someone Democrats would like to point to as a national figure.
 
It is rare that downballot races much have of an impact on Gubernatorial contests, but that has turned into a different story this year in Virginia. Republicans at least hope that the Attorney General election might somehow bring down Spanberger, While it is possible that the Democrat candidate for AG may have brought down himself, it would be very unlikely that he can harm his party's Gubernatorial nominee in a major way.

The overall scope of Virginia's three statewide races is pretty significant to consider. Beyond the race for Governor, between two women, one a Caribbean-American immigrant, there is a lot of diversity down the ballot as well. The close contest for Lt. Governor features a female Democrat State Senator who was born in India and who would become the first Muslim Lt. Governor in American history. She won a crowded primary where her top competitors were African-American males. Now, Ghazala Hashmi races Republican John Reid, a former Congressional aide who went on to become a conservative talk radio host. Reid also happens to be openly gay and would be an extremely rare openly LGBTQ candidate of his party to win statewide office. During the primary campaign, Reid had been accused of making some sexually explicit posts online, which he denied. Still, many in Virginia's Evangelical community called on him to exit the race and Governor Youngkin himself tried to get him out, believing he could be a drag on the ticket. Reid stayed in though, having his primary opponent not quality for the ballot. While they have appeared together, it appears that Earle-Sears has not exactly been enthusiastic about supporting Reid on the ticket she leads. After all, the current Lt. Governor has in this campaign taken positions opposing same sex marriage and claiming in a debate that firing people based on sexual orientation was "not discrimination."
 
The controversy over Reid has taken a backseat though to the race for Attorney General, in which Jason Miyares the Cuban-American Republican incumbent is being challenged by Jay Jones, a 36 year old African-American former State Delegate. It was only after Jones won a closer primary and early voting (which Virginia has many weeks of) began that a story broke about texts Jones had sent in 2022 to a then Republican colleague in the State House. First of all, this should be a cautionary tale to all politicians about thinking that an across the aisle friendship cannot be used against you if you say something stupid.
 
To be clear, what Jones said was reprehensible, even if he was not being literal, and he clearly was not being literal, as he vented about the Republican State House Speaker in a completely inappropriate way. Jones went on to use the familiar bit about "if you had two bullets and three people including Hitler who would you shoot?" Jones said he would use both bullets on the Virginia Republican official. Even worse, he mused about the potential death of this official's young children and spoke of their mother seeing them die, saying that personal pain might be the only way to see the change he wanted enacted.
 
All of this is horrifying, but Republicans, who of course have defended everything Donald Trump or his allies have said, have exaggerated the statements, as awful as they are without exaggeration. They are claiming that Jones said these things about his "opponent" and his "opponent's children", indicating he said them about Miyares, which is not true. He also did not threaten to kill the young children of the Virginia House Speaker but just spoke of their death at the hands of others, which of course is bad enough. There have also been other revelations made in recent weeks about Jones and his driving record. 

This all was pretty shocking to many, since Jones had the reputation of being a somewhat mild mannered public figure. When given the chance to tone down the rhetoric in these text exchanges, Jones refused, continuing to engage in repulsive political venting. When all of this went public last month, Republicans immediately called on Jones to exit the race. The deadline had passed though to replace him on the ballot, meaning that such a thing would allow the Republican, who had been trailing in the polls, to win reelection unopposed. If there were a way to replace Jones, you can be certain that Democrats nationally and in Virginia would have acted quickly to get him out,and he would have deserved it. Spanberger has openly expressed her frustration about how this matter has taken up so much of the oxygen in this campaign.
 
Donald Trump is known for not apologizing about anything. Many on his side admire him for that while other Republicans have been bothered for a decade but have largely stood by him. For his part, after being caught, Jones has unequivocally apologized and said he was "ashamed" of his behavior. The nominee for Attorney General has stayed in the race though and has put Democrats, including Gubernatorial nominee Spanberger in an awkward position. She had previously endorsed her ticket-mate of course, but has since neither revoked or affirmed her past support. Many Democrats are saying the matter is now up to voters. The polls have showed a distinct change away from Jones and towards Miyares, although the race actually is still very close, to the frustration of many Republicans. The names of both of Spanberger's running-mates have recently seemed to disappear from the design on her campaign bus. So, it is accurate to say that both Gubernatorial nominees are wanting to place distance between themselves an someone else on their ticket.
 
Earle-Sears has talked about Jay Jones at every stop along the way in the final weeks of this campaign. She is continuing to criticize Spanberger by association for having not withdrawn her support. This might be a valid point, at least to the extent that when you are losing in politics, you have to try whatever you can, but Earle-Sears, despite once mostly breaking with Trump, has felt obligated to stand by him since. She knows that to do otherwise would be damaging to her in regards to the party's base. Nonetheless, the Trump endorsement has not come. He has only endorsed Miyares in Virginia. 
 
This looked like some national factors affecting Democrats had made the Gubernatorial contest more competitive a couple of weeks ago, but conventional wisdom is now that this is easily Spanberger's race to lose, and things such as the government shutdown in Virginia have made it nearly impossible for a divisive Republican to win in Virginia. Earle-Sears nomination is historic, but it appears America is not going to elect its first black female Governor in 2025.
 
I think Spanberger probably wins by double digits and while I do not officially predict down-ballot races, it will probably be enough to bring the Lt. Governor candidate along with her. As for Attorney General? It sure looked like this Jones controversy had saved Miyares, with enough ticket splitters present to give Republicans at least one statewide win. The Republican nominee for AG is even running ads appealing to Spanberger voters. However, ticket splitting is rarer and rarer and this could wind up being a three-person sweep for the Democrats.
 
Once the race is over, I will be interested to see if Donald Trump will take to social media to attack Winsome Earle-Sears. He does not like "losers" and likely holds a grudge against a politically mouthy woman in his party who once dismissed him as damaged goods. All of this is a price that might have to be paid for loyalty to Trump.
 
You may win-some and you may lose-some. 

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

NFL Week 9 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 50-70 (42%) 
 
 
1. Ravens (2-5) at Dolphins (2-6)
 
 
 
2.  Bears (4-3) at Bengals (3-5)
3.  Vikings (3-4) at Lions (5-2)
4.  Panthers (4-4) at Packers (5-1-1)
5.  Broncos (6-2) at Texans (3-4)
6.  Falcons (3-4) at Patriots (6-2)
7.  49ers (5-3) at Giants (2-6)
8.  Colts (7-1) at Steelers (4-3)
9.  Chargers (5-3) at Titans (1-7)
10. Saints (1-7) at Rams (5-2)
11. Jaguars (4-3) at Raiders (2-5)
12.  Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (5-2)
13.  Seahawks (5-2) at Commanders (3-5)
 
14.  Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4-1)
 

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

NFL Week 8 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Vikings (3-3) at Chargers (4-3) W 1
 
 
 
2. Dolphins (1-6) at Falcons (3-3) W 2
3. Bears (4-2) at Ravens (1-5) L 1
4. Bills (4-2) at Panthers (4-3) W 3
5. Jets (0-7) at Bengals (3-4) L 2
6. 49ers (5-2) at Texans (2-4) W 4
7. Browns (2-5) at Patriots (5-2) L 3
8.  Giants (2-5) at Eagles (5-2) L 4
9.  Buccaneers (5-2) at Saints (1-6) L 5
10. Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5-2) W5
11. Titans (1-6) at Colts (6-1) L 6
12.  Packers (4-1-1) at Steelers (4-2) L 7
 
13.  Commanders (3-4) at Chiefs (4-3) W 6
 
Week 8 Results: 6-7 (46%)
Overall Results: 50-70 (42%) 
 

Saturday, October 25, 2025

New Jersey Governor Race

New Jersey Governor
 
Status: Democrat Open
2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)
 
Outlook: Leans Democrat
 
Out year elections in New Jersey and Virginia always take on exceeded proportions for those that follow politics, as they serve as a sort of kickoff event of national midterms. I will start with the race in the state that comes first alphabetically of the two, although this contest is expected to finish a bit closer than the one in the Old Dominion.
 
For all intents and purposes, Democrats should be feeling great about keeping the Governorship of New Jersey during a time where Donald Trump has presided over a tumultuous several months in office and with polls showing that he is very unpopular at large. New Jersey is a blue state after all as well, but last fall, Trump did far better there than many expected in only losing the Garden State by six points. Four years ago, Democrats had expected an easy reelection for incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, but he only wound up winning by three points.
 
There is something going on in New Jersey statewide that is confounding conventional wisdom. There is a sense that there has been some momentum in recent months towards the Republican candidate for Governor here and that this is an election that will definitely be decided by single digits. I agree that Democrats should feel far from cocky about New Jersey, especially in wake of the overall victory of Trump last year in every swing state. Still though, national headwinds against MAGA should be enough to save Democrats here on the east coast.
 
Governor Murphy is term-limited and his approval ratings are far from stellar in the state as many voters have complained about high taxes and the cost of living. Had Kamala Harris won the election last year, Republicans might be in a pretty good position to flip this office. There is a serious trend though of the party that wins the White House losing the New Jersey Governor election the next year. That decades long trend was only broken in 2021 when Murphy won that surprisingly close reelection over former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli.
 
Republicans have now nominated Ciattarelli once again. It is actually his third consecutive bid for the Governorship. In 2017, he finished second in the primary against the establishment choice. In 2021, most of the party establishment rallied behind Ciattarelli who easily won a four way primary, but with just 49 percent of the vote. With Joe Biden in office and Trump out, and in the eyes of many, finished as a national political force, the Republican nominee kept the former President at arm's length. The fact that he came so close as he did to knocking off the incumbent was an early warning sign to Democrats about the Biden Administration.

Now, four years later, Ciattarelli is trying to go all the way to Drumthwacket, although he has now gotten divorced from his wife of decades and is now running far more openly as Donald Trump supporter. Unlike Virginia, Trump has given his party's nominee in New Jersey his "full and complete" endorsement. In this year's June primary, Ciattarelli was challenged by even more pro-MAGA opponents, and by one fairly anti-Trump ally of the state's former Governor Chris Christie. With the once again President's endorsement this time around though, he had little difficulty, taking 68 percent against four opponents and winning in all areas of the state.
 
Democrats had a more contested primary to succeed Murphy, It featured two sitting Members of Congress, who could afford to run for Governor in an odd year and hold on to their seat, although their absences were likely noted  with the margins on Capitol Hill being so tight. In this six way contest, various Democrats received support from different constituencies in the party and different county party organizations.
 
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill was the winner with 34 percent of the vote. A former Navy pilot, she first flipped a long-time GOP House district in 2018 and won one competitive reelection before redistricting made her district more blue. Trailing thirteen points behind was Ras Baraka, the African-American Mayor of Newark who ran a notably more progressive campaign. Many Democrats in New Jersey and around the country were relieved when Sherrill prevailed over Baraka believing he might have a difficult time winning a general election. For a time, it looked like Baraka would be greatly helped politically by having been arrested weeks before the primary outside an ICE facility in his city. However, the Trump Administration dropped the charges against the Mayor days later.
 
Four other candidates finished behind the two vote leaders. Steven Fulop, the liberal Mayor of Jersey City took third place with 16 percent of the primary vote. The fourth place finisher Josh Gottheimer, a sitting Congressman who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2016, and in Washington had emerged as a leader among what remains of moderate Democrats. Some believe that Gottheimer  would have been the strongest general election candidate among the Democrats. Sean Spiller, the state Teacher Union President and former Mayor of Montclair finished in fifth place. The final candidate was Stephen Sweeney, a one time major power in the state who shockingly lost his seat in 2021 while serving as State Senate President. The candidate who knocked off Sweeney was an unknown truck driver who barely spent any money on his campaign. Incidentally, that candidate Edward Durr, who lost his reelection bid to the State Senate in 2023 also ran for Governor this cycle before dropping out of the Republican primary. It is hard for me to see why either Sweeney or Durr thought they could be elected Governor.
 
While some of the primary candidate selected their Lt. Governor running-mates before the primary, the two eventual nominees waited until afterwards. In 2021 Ciattarelli ran with a moderate female candidate who was somewhat familiar in the state from being a former television news personality. This time he emphasized the crime issue by picking Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon.

For her part, Sherrill bypassed the defeated Gubernatorial primary candidates and the state's current African-American female Lt Governor. In an effort to balance her ticket, she selected Dale Caldwell, an African-American who had never run for office, but had significant experience in education, non-profits and in the church community. It does not appear that either Lt. Governor nominee is playing much of a factor in this race.
 
With the general election set and the belief that New Jersey would be unlikely to elect a MAGA affiliated candidate for Governor, Sherrill has consistently had a lead in the polls. However, that lead has shrunk recently. The Congresswoman has been criticized for not being as active on the campaign trail as Ciattarelli, who of course does not also have a job on Capitol Hill. She is also said to be running a very cautious campaign that has had some difficulty in generating a lot of enthusiasm among black and Hispanic voters, two groups that Trump had inroads among in 2024 in places like New Jersey. Ciattarelli comes across as telegenic and smooth on the campaign trail. 
 
While Sherrill has made much use out of her background as a Navy veteran and her service overseas s a helicopter pilot, Republicans have tried to make an issue of her service. They dug up revelations related to a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy in which she was not directly involved but was barred from walking with her graduating class at commencement. She said this was because she refused to snitch on her fellow Midshipmen. Other allegations have been leveled against the Congresswoman related to inflating her military record, influence peddling and insider trading. The race has continued to get even nastier with the candidates threatening to sue each other. Sherrill claims that the Ciattarelli campaign improperly accessed and released her military record with private information not redacted. She framed that as a threat to all veterans. She has also claimed in a recent debate that her Republican opponent has "killed tends of thousands of people" with opioids due to his work in the medical publishing business.
 
All of these claims are pretty amazing but seem to be somewhat par for the course in today's politics. It seems as if both candidates are going well overboard in trying to smear their opponent but there does not seem to be any sort of general outrage in the state over all this back and forth and after the election is over, it is perhaps doubtful that anything will ever come of promised lawsuits for slander and things like that.
 
Sherrill has been seen for several years as a rising star in her party and right now should still be considered the favorite to be elected Governor of New Jersey. He elevation to that post will lead a narrow Democrat minority one seat shorter in the U.S. House for at least a couple of months. If she were to somehow lose this race, it is unlikely she will have much of a political future at all. By the same token, Ciattarelli is almost certainly not going to be a viable candidate for Governor on a fourth try, if he loses another election. 
 
Some polls this month have the Democrat ahead in the neighborhood of five to seven points, which is down a bit from what many had expected at this point. As we have seen in recent cycles, there are a lot of pro-Republican polling outfits that show better numbers for their party. One of those polls show the race in a virtual dead heat with Sherrill ahead 45-44. Many scoff at those sort of polls but it cannot be ignored that New Jersey wound up closer than the polls suggested in both 2021 and 2024 and that the Trump vote has been consistently underestimated in many polls.
 
All things considered though, including the desire of the state for change after eight years of a Democrat as Governor, I still believe that national politics will play a part. Trump has his ardent backers who will be with him no matter but as we have seen, not all of those voters will necessarily show up to support a different candidate that is not Trump. Ciattarelli is gambling that running as a pro-Trump candidate will be a plus, even in a state that has not voted Republican for President in decades. That might just be too much of an ask. The daily headlines about government shutdowns and the destruction of the White House complex to build a ballroom and all the rest have to be at least a drag on any candidate in a place like New Jersey who figuratively or literally puts on a red hat. I mean, it has to be right? Political betting markets have consistently stood by a prediction of a Democrat hold. It just may be that when the votes are counted, this will be not as close as many think
 
However, I expect Sherrill will win the Governorship by just slightly more than Kamala Harris did in this state last year. 
 

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

NFL Week 8 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results:44-63 (41%)

1. Vikings (3-3) at Chargers (4-3)
 
 
 
2. Dolphins (1-6) at Falcons (3-3)
3. Bears (4-2) at Ravens (1-5)
4. Bills (4-2) at Panthers (4-3)
5. Jets (0-7) at Bengals (3-4)
6. 49ers (5-2) at Texans (2-4)
7. Browns (2-5) at Patriots (5-2)
8.  Giants (2-5) at Eagles (5-2)
9.  Buccaneers (5-2) at Saints (1-6)
10. Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5-2)
11. Titans (1-6) at Colts (6-1)
12.  Packers (4-1-1) at Steelers (4-2)
 
13.  Commanders (3-4) at Chiefs (4-3)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

NFL Week 7 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Steelers (4-1) at Bengals (2-4) W 1
 
 
 
2.  Rams (4-2) vs. Jaguars (4-2) in London, England L 1
3.  Saints (1-5) at Bears (3-2) W 2
4.  Dolphins (1-5) at Browns (1-5) L 2
5.  Raiders (2-4) at Chiefs (3-3) W 3
6.  Eagles (4-2) at Vikings (3-2) L 3
7.  Panthers (3-3) at Jets (0-6) L 4
8.  Patriots (4-2) at Titans (1-5) L 5
9.  Giants (2-4) at Broncos (4-2) W 4
10. Colts (5-1) at Chargers (4-2) L 6
11.  Packers (3-1-1) at Cardinals (2-4) :L 7
12.  Commanders (3-3) at Cowboys (2-3-1) W 5
13.  Falcons (3-2) at 49ers (4-2) L 8
 
14.  Buccaneers (5-1) at Lions (4-2)  W 6
15.  Texans (2-3) at Seahawks (4-2) L 9
 
Week 7 Results: 6-9 (40%)
Overall Results:44-63 (41%)

 

Saturday, October 18, 2025

U.S. House Special Elections

Next week, I will post about the New Jersey Gubernatorial election and will do the same the following week for Virginia. Before we get to that though, I will go ahead and formally predict the remaining two special elections for U.S. House vacancies.
 
Early last month, I predicted two Democrat wins in blue districts, which was not exactly hard to do. The margins were somehow larger for the party than some were perhaps anticipating. The Arizona winner has still not been sworn in to the U.S. House under orders of Speaker Mike Johnson, whom is likely following orders of someone else? Why? Well, it seems pretty obvious that since she would be the 218th person to sign a discharge position, there is somebody who is very desperate to delay for however long may be possible, any sort of release of the Epstein Files.
 
It should be noted that the Tennessee election will not take place until the beginning of December, well after the New Jersey and Virginia results are known. The Texas seat will see voting in three weeks on Election Day, but will almost certainly see nobody pass 50 percent and thus a runoff will be held on December 9th. Nonetheless, I am predicting these now. If I feel the need to do a revision down the road, I will do so.
 
Tennessee
 
7. vacant upon resignation of Mark Green R
 (won by Trump with 60 percent of the vote)
 
 Likely R
_________________________________________________________________________________ 
 
Texas
 
18. vacant upon death of Sylvester Turner D 
(won by Harris with 69 percent of the vote)
 
Safe D/(Tossup/Edwards)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

NFL Week 7 Games

NOT PREDICTIONS
 
Overall Results: 38-54 (41%) 
 
1. Steelers (4-1) at Bengals (2-4)
 
 
 
2.  Rams (4-2) vs. Jaguars (4-2) in London, England
3.  Saints (1-5) at Bears (3-2)
4.  Dolphins (1-5) at Browns (1-5)
5.  Raiders (2-4) at Chiefs (3-3)
6.  Eagles (4-2) at Vikings (3-2) *
7.  Panthers (3-3) at Jets (0-6)
8.  Patriots (4-2) at Titans (1-5)
9.  Giants (2-4) at Broncos (4-2)
10. Colts (5-1) at Chargers (4-2)
11.  Packers (3-1-1) at Cardinals (2-4)
12.  Commanders (3-3) at Cowboys (2-3-1)
13.  Falcons (3-2) at 49ers (4-2)
 
14.  Buccaneers (5-1) at Lions (4-2) *
15.  Texans (2-3) at Seahawks (4-2)
 
* My rules are that the results I want to see happen are what is best for the Chicago Bears becoming the top overall seed in the NFC Playoffs. Thus, I have to "root" for two division rivals. Will I actually be doing so? No, not really. I will be perfectly happy to take the L and see the Vikings and Lions lose and potentially get the Bears closer to the top of the NFC North. 
 
 

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

NFL Week 6 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1.  Eagles (4-1) at Giants (1-4) W 1
 
 
 
2.  Broncos (3-2) vs Jets (0-5) in London, England W 2
3.  Rams (3-2) at Ravens (1-4) L 1
4.  Cowboys (2-2-1) at Panthers (2-3) W 3
5.  Cardinals (2-3) at Colts (4-1) W 4
6.  Seahawks (3-2) at Jaguars (4-1) L 2
7.  Chargers (3-2) at Dolphins (1-4) L 3
8.  Browns (1-4) at Steelers (3-1) L 4
9.  Patriots (3-2) at Saints (1-4) W 5
10. Titans (1-4) at Raiders (1-4) L 5
11. 49ers (4-1) at Buccaneers (4-1) W 6
12. Bengals (2-3) at Packers (2-1-1) L 6
13.  Lions (4-1) at Chiefs (2-3) W 7
 
14. Bills (4-1) at Falcons (2-2) L:7
15. Bears (2-2) at Commanders (3-2) W 8
 
Week 6 Results: 8-7 (53%)
Overall Results: 38-54 (41%)
 

Wednesday, October 08, 2025

NFL Week 6 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results: 30-47 (39%)
 
1. Eagles (4-1) at Giants (1-4)
 
 
 
2.  Broncos (3-2) vs Jets (0-5) in London, England
3.  Rams (3-2) at Ravens (1-4)
4.  Cowboys (2-2-1) at Panthers (2-3)
5.  Cardinals (2-3) at Colts (4-1)
6.  Seahawks (3-2) at Jaguars (4-1)
7.  Chargers (3-2) at Dolphins (1-4)
8.  Browns (1-4) at Steelers (3-1)
9.  Patriots (3-2) at Saints (1-4)
10. Titans (1-4) at Raiders (1-4)
11. 49ers (4-1) at Buccaneers (4-1)
12. Bengals (2-3) at Packers (2-1-1)
13.  Lions (4-1) at Chiefs (2-3)
 
14. Bills (4-1) at Falcons (2-2)
15. Bears (2-2) at Commanders (3-2)
 
 

Tuesday, October 07, 2025

NFL Week 5 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

  
1.  49ers (3-1) at Rams (3-1) L 1
 
 
 
2.  Vikings (2-2) vs. Browns (1-3) in London, England L 2
3.  Texans (1-3) at Ravens (1-3) L 3
4.  Dolphins (1-3) at Panthers (1-3) L 4
5.  Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1) W 1
6.  Giants (1-3) at Saints (0-4) W 2
7.  Cowboys (1-2-1) at Jets (0-4) L 5
8.  Broncos (2-2) at Eagles (4-0) W 3
9.  Titans (0-4) at Cardinals (2-2) W 4
10.  Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1) L 6
11.  Lions (3-1) at Bengals (2-2) L 7
12.  Commanders (2-2) at Chargers (3-1) L 8
13. Patriots (2-2) at Bills (4-0) L 9
 
14.  Chiefs (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1) L 10
 
Week 5 Results: 4-10 (29%)
Overall Results: 30-47 (39%)

Wednesday, October 01, 2025

NFL Week 5 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results: 26-37 (41%)
 
1.  49ers (3-1) at Rams (3-1)
 
 
 
2.  Vikings (2-2) vs. Browns (1-3) in London, England
3.  Texans (1-3) at Ravens (1-3)
4.  Dolphins (1-3) at Panthers (1-3)
5.  Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1)
6.  Giants (1-3) at Saints (0-4)
7.  Cowboys (1-2-1) at Jets (0-4)
8.  Broncos (2-2) at Eagles (4-0)
9.  Titans (0-4) at Cardinals (2-2)
10.  Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1)
11.  Lions (3-1) at Bengals (2-2)
12.  Commanders (2-2) at Chargers (3-1)
13. Patriots (2-2) at Bills (4-0)
 
14.  Chiefs (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1)
 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

NFL Week 4 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Seahawks (2-1) at Cardinals (2-1) L 1
 
 
 
2.  Vikings (2-1) vs Steelers (2-1) in Dublin, Ireland W 1
3.  Commanders (2-1) at Falcons (1-2) W 2
4.  Saints (0-3) at Bills (3-0) W 3
5.  Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1) L 2
6.  Titans (0-3) at Texans (0-3) L 3
7.  Panthers (1-2) at Patriots (1-2) W 4
8.  Chargers (3-0) at Giants (0-3) L 4
9.  Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0) L 5
10. Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1) L 6
11. Jaguars (2-1) at 49ers (3-0) W 5
12.  Ravens (1-2) at Chiefs (1-2) W 6
13.  Bears (1-2) at Raiders (1-2) W 7
14.  Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2) TIE
 
15.  Jets (0-2) at Dolphins (0-3) W 8
16.  Bengals (2-1) at Broncos (1-2) L 7
 
Week 4 Results: 8-7 (53%)
Overall Results: 26-37 (41%)
 

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

NFL Week 4 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results: 18-30 (38%)

1. Seahawks (2-1) at Cardinals (2-1)
 
 
 
2.  Vikings (2-1) vs Steelers (2-1) in Dublin, Ireland
3.  Commanders (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
4.  Saints (0-3) at Bills (3-0)
5.  Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1)
6.  Titans (0-3) at Texans (0-3)
7.  Panthers (1-2) at Patriots (1-2)
8.  Chargers (3-0) at Giants (0-3)
9.  Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0)
10. Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1)
11. Jaguars (2-1) at 49ers (3-0)
12.  Ravens (1-2) at Chiefs (1-2)
13.  Bears (1-2) at Raiders (1-2)
14.  Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)
 
15.  Jets (0-2) at Dolphins (0-3)
16.  Bengals (2-1) at Broncos (1-2)

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

NFL Week 3 Results

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Dolphins (0-2) at Bills (2-0) W 1
 
 
 
2.  Falcons (1-1) at Panthers (0-2) W 2
3.  Packers (2-0) at Browns (0-2) W 3
4.  Texans (0-2) at Jaguars (1-1) W 4
5.  Bengals (2-0) at Vikings (1-1) L 1
6.  Steelers (1-1) at Patriots (1-1) L 2
7.  Rams (2-0) at Eagles (2-0) L 3
8.  Jets (0-2) at Buccaneers (2-0) L 4
9.  Colts (2-0) at Titans (0-2) L 5
10.  Raiders (1-1) at Commanders (1-1) L 6
11.  Broncos (1-1) at Chargers (2-0) L 7
12.  Saints (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1) L 8
13.  Cowboys (1-1) at Bears (0-2) W 5
14.  Cardinals (2-0) at 49ers (2-0) L 9
15.  Chiefs (0-2) at Giants (0-2) W 6
 
16.  Lions (1-1) at Ravens (1-1) W 10
 
Week 3 Results: 6-10 (38%)
(exact results three weeks in a row. That is real consistency)
Overall Results: 18-30 (38%)
 
I have to say that this week saw a very encouraging win for the Chicago Bears. Maybe they can follow the example of the 2025 Chicago Cubs, who also started their season 0-2, and make it to the Playoffs! 
 

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

NFL Week 3 Games

 NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results: 12-20 (38%)
 
1. Dolphins (0-2) at Bills (2-0)
 
 
 
2.  Falcons (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
3.  Packers (2-0) at Browns (0-2)
4.  Texans (0-2) at Jaguars (1-1)
5.  Bengals (2-0) at Vikings (1-1)
6.  Steelers (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)
7.  Rams (2-0) at Eagles (2-0)
8.  Jets (0-2) at Buccaneers (2-0)
9.  Colts (2-0) at Titans (0-2)
10.  Raiders (1-1) at Commanders (1-1)
11.  Broncos (1-1) at Chargers (2-0)
12.  Saints (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1)
13.  Cowboys (1-1) at Bears (0-2)
14.  Cardinals (2-0) at 49ers (2-0)
15.  Chiefs (0-2) at Giants (0-2)
 
16.  Lions (1-1) at Ravens (1-1)
 

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

NFL Week 2 Results

 At least the Bears have the same record as the Chiefs...

NOT PREDICTIONS

 

1.  Commanders (1-0) at Packers (1-0) L 1
 
 
 
2. Browns (0-1) at Ravens (0-1) W 1
3. Jaguars (1-0) at Bengals (1-0) W 2
4. Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1) W 3
5. Bears (0-1) at Lions (0-1) L 2
6. Patriots (0-1) at Dolphins (0-1) L 3
7. 49ers (1-0) at Saints (0-1) L 4
8. Bills (1-0) at Jets (0-1) W 4
9. Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (1-0) L 5
10. Rams (1-0) at Titans (0-1) L 6
11. Panthers (0-1) at Cardinals (1-0) L 7
12. Broncos (1-0) at Colts (1-0) L 8
13. Eagles (1-0) at Chiefs (0-1) L 9
14. Falcons (0-1) at Vikings (1-0) W 5
 
15. Buccaneers (1-0) at Texans (0-1) L 10
16. Chargers (1-0) at Raiders (1-0)  W 6
 
Week 2 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 12-20 (38%) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Never Forget

 9/11/25

 

Those who are mourning Charlie Kirk speak about the American birthright that is Free Speech. They are absolutely right to do so. 
 
They must also remember the Free Speech that goes along with speaking out against Donald Trump and what he represents. That must never be silenced.

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

NFL Week 2 Games

On this unfortunate and troubling day for the country, we look ahead to this week's NFL schedule

 

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 6-10 (38%) 
 
1.  Commanders (1-0) at Packers (1-0)
 
 
 
2. Browns (0-1) at Ravens (0-1)
3. Jaguars (1-0) at Bengals (1-0)
4. Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
5. Bears (0-1) at Lions (0-1)
6. Patriots (0-1) at Dolphins (0-1)
7. 49ers (1-0) at Saints (0-1)
8. Bills (1-0) at Jets (0-1)
9. Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (1-0)
10. Rams (1-0) at Titans (0-1)
11. Panthers (0-1) at Cardinals (1-0)
12. Broncos (1-0) at Colts (1-0)
13. Eagles (1-0) at Chiefs (0-1)
14. Falcons (0-1) at Vikings (1-0)
 (why isn't the Super Bowl rematch the Sunday Night game?)
 
15. Buccaneers (1-0) at Texans (0-1)
16. Chargers (1-0) at Raiders (1-0) 

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

NFL Week 1 Results

Well, half of all teams are 0-1 to start the season, but the losses probably feel worse for the fans of some teams as opposed to the others at this point. The last few years have seen far too many Fourth Quarter collapses for the Bears.
 
NOT PREDICTIONS
 
1. Cowboys (0-0) at Eagles (0-0) L 1
 
2.  Chiefs (0-0) vs Chargers (0-0) in Sao Paulo Brazil L 2
 
 
3.  Buccaneers (0-0) at Falcons (0-0) L 3
4.  Bengals (0-0) at Browns (0-0) W 1
5.  Dolphins (0-0) at Colts (0-0) L 4
6.  Panthers (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0) W 2
7.  Raiders (0-0) at Patriots (0-0) W 3
8.  Cardinals (0-0) at Saints (0-0) L 5
9.  Steelers (0-0) at Jets (0-0) L 6
10.  Giants (0-0) at Commanders (0-0) W 4
11.  Titans (0-0) at Broncos (0-0) W 5
12.  49ers (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0) L 7
13.  Lions (0-0) at Packers (0-0) L 8
14.  Texans (0-0) at Rams (0-0) L 9
15.  Ravens (0-0) at Bills (0-0) W 6
 
16.  Vikings (0-0) at Bears (0-0) L 10
 
Week 1 and Overall Results: 6-10 (38%) 
 

Monday, September 08, 2025

U.S. House Special Elections

There are currently four vacancies in the lower chamber of Congress. The one in Virginia will be filled after a special election tomorrow and the one in Arizona a couple of weeks later. The two other vacancies will formally elect a new Member of Congress in either November or December and I will predict those results at that time.

 

Arizona
 
7.  vacant upon the death of Raul Grijalva D
(won by Harris with 61% of the vote)
 
Likely D 
________________________________________________________________________
 
Virginia
 
11vacant upon the death of Gerry Connolly D
(won by Harris with 66% of the vote)
 
Likely D 

Monday, September 01, 2025

NFL Week 1

On this Labor Day, "summertime has come and gone" and the lyrics in Billy Joel's "Famous Last Words" say.  There will be other words I have to say about politics in the near future, but that can wait for now. This Thursday, the NFL kicks off again. 
 
Fanbases of many teams are optimistic that their team just may be a championship contender. I am certainly hopeful the Chicago Bears could some how win their first Super Bowl in 40 years, but am realistic enough to know that significant improvement from last season's 5-12 record is what really matters. If that can be achieved, deep playoff runs may not be too far off in the future. This autumn, I will likely be paying more attention to post-season baseball than in the past few years, and of course, hoping for the best, while likely expecting the worst.
 
As always these are NOT PREDICTIONS. These are merely a listing of the games, with the teams highlighted  being who I want to win. In games featuring NFC teams, I have a simple rule, and that is whatever best benefits the mathematical chances of the Bears being the number one conference seed, as unlikely as that may be. Once the time comes when such a hope is no longer possible, I can loosen up my rules a bit more. When records are tied, such as in Week 1, I just go based on who I want to win, and that will never be the Packers. For games between two AFC teams, I also just pick a personal preference. For decades, I used to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers a lot (perhaps due to wasted years listening to Rush Limbaugh) but not this season. Not with Aaron Rodgers on their team. No way.
 
Opening record: 0-0 (100%) 
 
1. Cowboys (0-0) at Eagles (0-0)
 
2.  Chiefs (0-0) vs Chargers (0-0) in Sao Paulo Brazil
 
 
3.  Buccaneers (0-0) at Falcons (0-0)
4.  Bengals (0-0) at Browns (0-0)
5.  Dolphins (0-0) at Colts (0-0)
6.  Panthers (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0)
7.  Raiders (0-0) at Patriots (0-0)
8.  Cardinals (0-0) at Saints (0-0)
9.  Steelers (0-0) at Jets (0-0)
10.  Giants (0-0) at Commanders (0-0)
11.  Titans (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)
12.  49ers (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0)
13.  Lions (0-0) at Packers (0-0)
14.  Texans (0-0) at Rams (0-0)
15.  Ravens (0-0) at Bills (0-0)
 
16.  Vikings (0-0) at Bears (0-0)

Monday, May 19, 2025

American Idol Finale

Last night, at the end of a three hour episode, American Idol crowned its 23rd winner. The result was one that pleasantly surprised me. While I long ago believed Jamal Roberts would go very far this season, I did not think he would actually win the entire show. That is indeed what happened though and Jamal is now only the second ever African-American male winner. The last time that happened was way back in 2003 when Ruben Studdard won Season Two. In face, only one other black male has ever even gotten as far since as the runner-up. That was the late Willie Spence in 2021. We were told that the vote total for this finale was "twice as many" as the votes last year, when I was also somewhat surprised when a female singer defeated a white male country singer I considered the front-runner. That was a valid result and so was what happened last night. If so many more people voted this season, that was truly a remarkable sign of a game-changing participation level.
 
Did I miss Donald Trump putting out a statement endorsing John Foster? That could have done the trick against him. My mother was disappointed that her favorite John did not win. She said she tried to vote but was unable to figure out the process and hopes that those missing votes would not have been the deciding factor. She is satisfied that John will be able to make records and have a career in country music.
 
It is once again late Monday night and I will do my best to recap the Sunday night spectacular. There is probably much more that could be said that I will forget. I always enjoy Idol season, but keeping up with it felt more like a project this year. I will be glad to not have to do any more of these write-ups. 

1. John Foster, Breanna Nix, and Jamal Roberts- "We Are The Champions"
 
The night begins with what we are told is not technically a round, but I might as well judge how these three sounded on their opening group number. The all did just fine on the Queen arena power ballad. The song and the Freddie Mercury vocals were best suited for Breanna though and least so for John.
 
1. Breanna Nix
2. Jamal Roberts
3. John Roberts
 

For the first official round, the contestants had songs picked from them (apparently from a list they submitted) by Jelly Roll. The three final contestants are all southerners. They consist of a male and female white country singer joined by an African-American R&B singer. They truly resemble this year's judging panel completely. All will be lucky to have similar careers to Luke Bryan, Carrie Underwood, and Lionel Richie.

 1. John Foster- "Courtesy of the Red, White, And Blue (The Angry American)"
 
I am pretty sure this song by the late Toby Keith has never been done on Idol. It came out after the 2001 terrorist attacks and was considered controversial even back then. Picking it for John tonight felt very manipulative to keep red state voters, particularly country music fans, on his side.
 
This is the point where I could easily go on a side tangent about how the Republican voters from a generation ago when this song came out (which of course I was one of) might not recognize the Republican voters of today if they really thought about it. They are largely the same people, although unlike the Presidency of the great George W. Bush, (a man who could really rock a cowboy hat), the current leader of the Republican Party approaches foreign policy and American strength in a very different light.

While this song talks about enacting revenge on jihadists who had harmed us with airplanes and were intent on doing so again, Donald Trump believes in making nice with supporters of terrorism for money making purposes and begging enablers of Hamas to give him a big airplane.
 
This could be a long essay but I will hold off because this song is from before John was born and I doubt he would ever say anything too political on television. So, he sang this country song in his usual country way including the line at the end that I thought he might skip. I do not buy that John is ready to put his boot in someone's ass. He seems to be too nice of a guy. There are better patriotic songs than this, but people were waving the red, white, and blue in the audience and I am sure a lot of Trump voters at home loved this (for the record my mother is not a Trump voter.) The entertainment diversion of American Idol aside, those people ought to really examine what this song is supposed to mean and what "the American way" should really be. It is not Donald J. Trump and what he represents.
 
2.  Jamal Roberts- "First Time" 

I do not know this song, but it definitely veered in the smooth R&B direction and Jamal did what he has done all season and sang it very well. I cannot really think of what else I can say.The families of the three contestants are all seated (or asleep) at the side of the stage on couches. For Jamal, they never really specify whom is who. Who is the older dude with the blond beard? An Uncle? If it was his father they might have pointed it out. Who was the woman in the tight jeans? Could she have possibly been the mother of Jamal's two oldest daughters? The answers may be out there somewhere on the internet, but I will let the mystery exist.
 
3. Breanna Nix- "In Jesus Name"
 

For John, they went the patriotic route and for Breanna, back to the heavily religious theme. This season has been very big on country hats and crosses. If Breanna wants to have a career in Christian Contemporary Music, she might be very successful and this would indeed have been the right kind of song for her. She sang it pretty well, but I cannot really remember much else about it.

During the performance, her young son Emerson, with noise blocking headphones on, was laying down, sound asleep across one of thc couches. He is an adorable kid but he always seems to be sleeping. Are they drugging him for the episodes? I doubt that but conspiracy theories can be fun. It was like 5:20 pm in California at this point. Could they not have arranged nap times better?

Rankings:

3. John Foster
2. Breanna Nix
1. Jamal Roberts
 
One more round until we get a "snapshot" of the vote and eliminate the first person. This is the traditional "hometown visit" aspect of the Top Three, complete with emotional video packages with not so subtle narratives galore about each contestant.
 
1. John Foster- "Take Me Home, Country Roads"
 
I feel like we learned a lot. At least I did. John's actual last name is apparently Benoit and Foster is his middle name/stage name.. Unlike his two competitors, John Foster Benoit III seems to come from a fairly well-off background. His family owns a cajun meat store and unlike the other two, he is definitely Catholic. Is country music really that big though in the Baton Rogue area of Louisiana? It seems like he would fit in more in the more Protestant Shreveport area. They did feel the name to remove the French 
sounding last name from his performance identity. When he went home, the logo of his name was splattered everywhere, which I assume was drawn up by his family or management team. What I noticed was that the T in FOSTER was stylized as a cross.  I also wonder the details of how the 19 year old John has a 29 year old sister and a four year old sister. Considering that age gap between them all, it is likely a blended family.
 
The video package had John visiting the graveside of a young girl we were told was his best friend who had died in an auto accident a couple years back. That truly sounds like a horrible thing for anyone to go through. John was very emotional on the Idol stage  when he sang the song he had written in her honor a few weeks back and even more so when he sang it to large crowds at his hometown visit.
 
For this "hometown dedication". he picked a song I really like, but which seemed sort of odd. I will note that last week I compared him to John Denver singing to Moppets back in the 1970s and this was a John Denver song. It would have been perfect if he was from West Virginia. Obviously, this song has nothing to do with his home state of Louisiana. I think it might have been ok, at least on the last verse, to have changed the lyrics to "Louisiana... Cajun Mama... take me hooooooome...." He did not do so however. Was anyone in the Pelican State pissed?
 
Regardless, this is the kind of song that best suits John's voice. It was a very good vocal.
 
2. Jamal Roberts- "Just My Imagination (Running Away With Me)"
 
For one thing, although it was not formally said, Jamal going home allowed him to meet his brand new daughter Gianna for the first time. She seemed to have a remarkable head of hair for being less than two weeks old. There was also some good footage of Jamal (who has a pastor as a grandfather) with his family at a cookout. The town of Meridian, Mississippi is heavily black, but they also showed some white folks at some of the public gatherings for Jamal. Idol had to do its own DEI perhaps.
 
For these hometown visits, contestants often visit the schools where they were once students, or perhaps still technically were. This may have been the first actual instance where someone visited a school where they were a teacher. That is a pretty cool aspect. Jamal is apparently known as "Coach" at his school and teaches P.E. to elementary age kids. Perhaps ABC can get him a spot on "Abbott Elementary."  Some of the kids were quite emotional upon reuniting with him and paying tribute to him as the cameras rolled.

I do know what this song really has to do with his a hometown visit but once again, he sang an old-school classic, this one by The Temptations extremely well. Older Idol voters likely appreciated it.
 
3. Breanna Nix- "The Climb"
 
For her visit, Breanna went home to Denton, Texas, which I have always associated as the home base of the cursed Von Erich wrestling dynasty. Her visit pushed the theme of her being a mother and how she was an inspiration to other young mothers to follow their dreams. Breanna often makes some kind of mention as to how when she was young, she might not have always been a good kid and that she made mistakes. Jamal has eluded to having been through a lot in his life as well. That differentiates both of them in terms of life experience to what recent High School valedictorian and LSU biology major John has been through.
 
This was a smart song choice, although Breanna, at age 25, might actually be the oldest woman to ever sing it on television. Miley Cyrus was definitely far younger when she first came out with it. I will say though that Breanna nailed this and brought all kinds of power and emotion to the performance. The way she held the last note was standing ovation worthy.
 
Rankings for this round which also mirror cumulative rankings for all three songs they had sung thus far: 
 
3. John Foster. 
2. Jamal Roberts
1 Breanna Nix
 
I keep always typing John Roberts instead of John Foster, and have probably let it get through on here at least once this season. Neither John Foster nor Jamal Roberts are the Chief Justice of the United States, but since John is Catholic, he would be more likely to be on the current SCOTUS.
 
Who should have finished in third place: John Foster
Who I predicted would finish in third place: Jamal Roberts
Who finished in third place: Breanna Nix
 
Look at that. Jamal made it into the Final Two. This was perhaps a minor surprise, but despite believing that Breanna took the last round by virtue of her vocals, I cannot complain too much about it. Still, I had to think that John was likely to win in a couple of hours.
 
As Emerson Nix continued to sleep and would likely miss out on the chance to one day say he was awake to watch the aging guest performers who would be taking the stage, the other contestants were applauded by their relatives. For John, that included his two grandfathers, whom it had been mentioned on the put a boot in their ass go America song, were both veterans. I assume these grandfathers represented both sides of his family and were not a couple. That would have been a plot twist!
 
Still, I wonder what was going through the minds of those two older gentlemen, after a night heavy on religion and patriotism, when Salt N Pepa came out and started performing "Push It."
 
Also, I am pretty sure Salt N Pepa have done the exact same thing before at least one previous Idol Finale.
 
Breanna seemed ok with her elimination at this point of the evening. She did very well for herself and I hope she is successful in her musical ventures.
 
Throughout the course of the middle portion of the program, there were group numbers, and all the finalists had their "celebrity" duets or trios, although they fit Desmond Roberts in with an entire group of male finalists (minus the ones that were actually competing tonight which seemed to be an Idol Finale departure). I also noticed that Thunderstorm Artis was not on stage for the Good Charlotte group number with the other guys. It was mentioned that Lionel Richie is the father in law of one of the brothers from that group. I could never tell the Maddens apart.

The Jessica Simpson collaboration with a cowboy attired Josh King was interesting. We were told that Ms. Simpson had not performed on television in 15 years and she certainly looked different than how she used to. It was interesting to me that Carrie Underwood was watching her from the judges' table. Do they actually known each other?  Could Carrie and Jessica have had a conversation about their mutual ex Tony Romo? If it were last season, Jessica could have discussed John Mayer with Katy Perry.
 
At this point I had to judge the performances that Jamal and John were in.
 
1. John Foster- "Deeper Than The Holler"
 
This was a country duet with judge Luke Bryan for John. I wonder if the Breanna duet with Brandon Lake (whomever that is) was moved around at the schedule at this point. I really cannot remember much about this performance. John played guitar and sounded like he always does. There is no doubt he is going into country music and not any other genre. Hopefully, his music will not be as cringey as Luke's.
 
2. Jamal Roberts- "Unpretty/Liar"

For Jamal, it was a medley of the songs of his duet partner Jelly Roll which seem to be of the theme about what a lost soul he once was. I am not the preeminent expert on Jelly's biography, (although I saw he was hanging out with Trump and RFK Jr and that crowd at an MMA event this year) but I believe he was once in jail. Fortunately, he did not escape, as those 10 people did in New Orleans. I believe they have gotten four back thus far.
 
Anyways, Jamal has a great soulful voice. I would not want to listen to any of this on the radio necessarily but I cannot help but think he is a stronger all-around singer amongst the Final Two.
 
Duet Round Verdict: Jamal over John
 

Finally, the contestants would sing their "single." From what Seacrest appeared to say, the Top 7 all recorded them recently and they have been released on I-Tunes. If I was actually following this stuff when the show was not airing, the sales numbers would have been a big indication on who was likely to win. I do not recall Idol ever having 7 singles for sale and also, at least as it relates to Jamal and John, these were not "new" song that were written for them. John actually got to record and would be about the perform the original song he had written and had already done on the Idol stage and Jamal would also be reprising a past performance. Past Idol finales have included both the "winner's single" and a "popular reprise" and this was both of that combined.

 1. John Roberts- "Tell That Angel I Love Her"
 
As was the case when he first sang it, I was very impressed by John's songwriting ability for this genre and the emotional connection he brought to the performance. I assume John and the departed angel he is singing about were just good friends but it seems like a very sad story This was a solid vocal that due to the subject matter was without any of the corniness that John had been exhibiting on some songs. Actually, might it have been better for him to have done at least something "fun" tonight. Maybe offering a little kick on the "boot in their ass" lyric was that attempt.
 
2. Jamal Roberts- "Heal"
 
I had noted that Jamal over the past few weeks seemed to sing with somewhat less energy than he was showing in the earlier rounds. I suppose he left it all out on stage for this last performance. It was very good when he sang it the first time a few weeks ago, but this reprise was even better. The song, which to me continues to sound like a worship song, starts off slow and ethereal and Jamal has the kind of voice to pull that off every time. Then, at the end last night, he finished in another gear and really put a preaching/gospel spin on it that I am sure impressed a lot of people. If they were not already voting, they may have been motivated to get out their phones.
 
Final Round Verdict: Jamal over John
 
 As I was watching a recording of the show after it finished airing, I saw Jamal's name trending on Twitter/X below "American Idol" and I asked myself, "maybe he won?" I figured though it was probably more likely people were Tweeting about him to complain that did he not win although he deserved to and Idol is racist, etc.
 
Who should have won American Idol: Jamal Roberts
Who I predicted won American Idol: John Foster
Who won American Idol: Jamal Roberts
 
For the second year in a row, I was both surprised and pleased. I think John seems like a good kid and is very talented at what he does, but for pure singing ability alone, he was middle of the pack as far as the Top 14 was concerned. It will be interesting to see what he does in Nashville. Although he has sort of a modern look, with longer hair, etc, his style of singing is more old school country. Is he going to go the Scotty McCreery post-Idol route and sing songs about beer and babes and parties? Perhaps, he might end up somewhere like Branson, Missouri singing to older fans of country music. He should definitely continue to pursue his passion for music but it would also be a great story if he does go on to actually become a doctor one day.
 
Jamal is the winner. I already talked about the historical significance of this. I also am pretty sure he is the first person to be crowned the American Idol while not technically wearing what would be considered a shirt.  It seems like Jamal is the most reserved personality wise to win Idol, at least in some time. He has always come across as likeable on the show, but I feel like there is a lot about him and his life that the regular Idol viewer does not know. His reaction to advancing every week has been fairly muted and last night was no exception, As is always the case, the confetti moment featured the other finalists coming out and surrounding him. Clearly, many of them looked extremely happy for him. 
 
If as we were told, twice as many votes came in as last season, that is definitely testament to Jamal's ability to get out the vote. I do not think people were necessarily voting to stop John or Breanna last night. I think a lot of black Americans, who might not have voted for or watched Idol in years, heard about Jamal, perhaps through social media, and did their thing to support him. That is how politics works. Jamal expanded the electorate. His portrayal as a loving father to the extremely telegenic Lyrik and Harmoni definitely helped. Voting strictly along racial identity lines is distasteful in some ways but just so happens, he was worthy of the win, and I am sure got many votes from non-black viewers as well. While I am glad Jamal won, in my view, the best overall singers this season might have been two African-American females, Gabby Samone and Kolbi Jordan. I also could make a case for Breanna at times being stronger than Jamal. I think she was in one round last night for sure.

There is no doubt that Jamal is incredibly talented and was consistent the entire season. I do not know what his album is going to sound like. It might be R&B or they could have him go the Gospel route. His very strong take on "Heal" aside, he seems to be more suited to sing oldies, and thus I do not know if he is going to go on to be a star.
 
Still, he is an admirable person who overcame a tough background to become an educator. Now, he will have the opportunity to provide for his family at a level that might have looked impossible just a few months ago. Early in the season, Jamal said he auditioned to bring hope to his community and to let people know that they had options in life beyond picking up a gun.  
 
That is truly a worthy message for an American Idol that all sorts of people in our country need to hear.
 

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

American Idol- Top 3

The show aired on Monday. I watched it on Tuesday and now here on Wednesday, I am here to say that I did not really find the episode all that entertaining. Maybe it was just the overloading of back to back Disney Nights with songs I really do not vibe with. Maybe it was the fact that Gabby Samone is no longer on the show. Maybe the kids just seemed to be somewhat physically and emotionally tired. I am sure they are working hard. They had to learn and perform four songs over the previous week, while also starting to prepare for the Finale. There were no disasters musically, but it all felt a little bit disjointed and overly corny at times. This has been a very strong season, but as often happens when the show gets to its final rounds, very few actually seem "hungry" for the belt.

This was supposed to be some sort of Disney "heroes and villains" theme, but I do not see how that applied. I also do not understand why out of the five contestants, they had the same person sing first and last in each round but then mixed up the others in the middle. They also interspersed the video packages between the rounds with one being another mentoring session with Lin-Manuel Miranda and the other being the contestants having a wholesome and sappy time at Disneyland with their families. Even though it was taped before it was known which of the Top 7 would become the Top 5, they had to speak to the cameras as if they already made it. That must make it even tougher for Gabby and Mattie Pruitt to think back about what they said to a producer on camera in what would become deleted footage.
 
Looking at this Final Five though, it sticks out that there are three contestants who are parents and they (now) have a combined six children between them. This is very unprecedented. Looking back, I am pretty sure that only Fantasia and Noah Thompson won Idol when they were already parents. Both of them were still teenagers at the time and single. The parents this season are in their 20s and two of them have had their spouses front and center since the auditions. We do not exactly know the relationship status of the third parent. In addition to the three parents, there are also two teenage southern boys, who appear to come from affluent families, and who most likely have not fathered any babies. They both have younger sisters though who have been very visible. All of this makes for a very family friendly and Disney friendly Idol homestretch. It all seems very stylistically different than "The Voice" where most of the finalists seem to look very much as if they come from "blue state America." I would not be able to name any of them. It is enough work to focus on Idol.
 
1. Slater Nally- "You've Got A Friend In Me"
 
I would ban this song from Idol. Every year, during the Disney portion of the competition, some dude has to sing this Randy Newman "Toy Story" monstrosity. On Monday, Slater had his hair all done up and was wearing some sort of goofy looking tuxedo and singing into an old-fashioned microphone for whatever reason.
 
This is a long way from the ballcap and jeans wearing gritty southern rock guitar player. This was the first time he did not play a guitar on the Idol stage and I think that might be a good thing, but this felt all sorts of corny. Apparently though, he sang this recently, while wearing a weird outfit, at some sort of High School performance. I really do not feel Slater is as "country" as might have been advertised. 

2. John Foster- "The Bare Necessities"
 
Oh great, another cringy song. When I was just a bit younger than John, I had a part time job working in a toy story of sorts that sold Disney music and this song used to play all the time over the speakers.
 
For what John is trying to do, he did well. His core audience are somewhat older ladies like my mother who really likes John and told me she would want to "adopt" him. Those are the exact same words she used to describe Laine Hardy, another Bayou teenager a few years ago. He would up getting arrested for something after wining Idol and we do not hear much from him anymore. In his audition, John said he was in college had ambitions of going to medical school and becoming an oncologist. Something tells me that he is probably not going back to school anytime soon.
 
Needless to say, this performance was very corny for me but John knows how to work a camera. It would have fit in very well as some sort of John Denver-ish 1970s variety show appearance, complete with the Muppets singing along.
 
 3. Thundesrstorm Artis- "A Dream Is A Wish Your Heart Makes"
 
Upon hearing the song choice, I was not excited. However, I have to give Thundestorm credit.  He sang this very well. It was a slow, almost lullaby like ballad, but his voice had a Nat King Cole quality to it. Unlike the first two performances, at least he was able to infuse some life into it and come across as a worthy vocal and not just playing dress-up and singing (although John basically wears the same thing every performance.)
 
4. Breanna Nix- "This Will Be (An Everlasting Love)"
 
Ok, this is not exactly a Disney song, but I guess it qualifies since it was in a Disney movie. I wish more contestants would have tried to stretch the rules like that.
 
Breanna sounded decent but something felt off about her performance. She just seemed a little worn out and unsure. The thought occurred to me, especially as she seemed to be sitting on the couches at the times when her male competitors were standing up.... might she be pregnant?  Breanna responded to Carrie Underwod that the song "has a lot of words." It does seem like the judges are a bit more critical of her at times than they are on the others.
 
5. Jamal Roberts- "Ain't No Mountain High Enough"
 
This old Motown tune was in "Remember The Titans", a High School football movie that itself is probably not really thought of as being Disney. What could be a better choice for a soulful gym teacher?
 
I thought Jamal sang it very well. He definitely demonstrated the most vocal "tricks" out of anybody in this first round (poor Gabby) but it seemed like he could have done even more with the song. He did not directly sing the very memorable chorus, instead leaving it to the background singers, while he just did a bunch of vocal runs. He even mostly stood in one place. Back a few weeks ago, he was running all over the stage. Carrie made note of how he did not move around much either. Is Jamal, like the others, just tired? He also seems to be interacting a lot less verbally. He might not have a huge personality but he seems to be holding back more and mostly just sways back and forth while clutching the microphone during the judges' comments, while the other contestants try to interact with a panel a bit more, (or in some cases, such as Thunderstorm, a lot more.)
 
Round 1 Rankings... too bland for my tastes all around
 
5. Slater Nally
4. John Foster
3. Breanna Nix
2. Thunderstorm Artis
1. Jamal Roberts
 
1. Slater Nally- "Born To Be Wild"
 
Now, Slater was back with his electric guitar and at least trying to do something more "current" seeming, even though this song is close to 60 years old. Carrie, the wife of a hockey player, knew it was from a "Mighty Ducks" movie. Maybe John, who likes the movie "Cars" should have done "Life Is A Highway."
 
I liked this performance better than his first one but it still felt kind of restrained and "safe."
 
2. Thunderstorm Artis- "Find Yourself"
 
I do not know this song at all. Apparently, it is from "Cars." This was the second ballad of the night for T-Storm, who seems to do a lot of ballads. He might have benefited by being a bit more "fun" on stage.
 
From, what I remember though, he sang it well. This performance was heavy on the guitar playing though and he seemed to want people to pay attention to how well he was able to handle the instrument. It was maybe too much of a coffee shop sort of vibe than something for a huge stage. It seemed like Thunderstorm almost got very emotional when Luke Bryant started talking about the relationship the contestant had with his late father.
 
3. John Foster- "Rainbow Connection"
 
The song title alone seemed like more of a Thundestorm pick. Seriously though, in the last round, I was picturing John serenading a bunch of Muppets, and here we were, with him singing Kermit's song. I guess a guest appearance was either out of Idol's budget or Kermit realized that in Louisiana, they probably eat a lot of frogs.
 
What else can I say? John sang it well. Lin-Manuel had wanted him to try to sing it not so much like Willie Nelson and I guess John accomplished that but he still seems to be more of a tribute artist than an original musician. That has definitely not hurt the Idol victory chances of past contestants though such as Scotty McCreery. It seems like Carrie might be pulling to a John victory. Back in the auditions, she and Luke Bryant had cautioned him to try to be more original vocally and Luke stated he almost said "no" to a golden ticket for John. He has definitely come a long way in terms of perception, as he is now on the edge of ultimate victory, although his voice is probably the same as it was.
 
4. Breanna Nix- "You'll Be In My Heart"
 

Breanna dedicated this Tarzan song to her husband, whom handed off the kid to someone else in the audience while the cameras were on him for this. He was also mic'ed up in the crowd.

In this round, Breanna seemed more relaxed and likely had a somewhat better vocal performance for it. It just was not as impactful as what we have seen from other contestants, including Breanna herself, this season.
 
5. Jamal Roberts- "Beauty And The Beast"
 
Jamal stated in the video package that he did not know why he picked this song, which seems pretty odd. This is kind of a boring ballad, but Jamal is so talented vocally, he is able to make a listener appreciate his skills. Once again though, as was the case for everyone this evening, it just seemed sort of "safe." With Gabby and a couple others gone, Jamal (along with Breanna) have the best overall voices but this was kind of him coasting and then getting a lot of praise for that.
 
Frankly. he could have had a moment with "Circle Of Life."
 
Round Two Rankings:
 
5. John Foster
4, Slater Nally
3. Breanna Nix
2. Thunderstorm Artis
1. Jamal Roberts
 
 Combined rankings- just have to break a tie between 5 and 4
 
5. John Foster
4. Slater Nally
 
3. Breanna Nix
2. Thunderstorm Artis
1. Jamal Roberts

Who should have been eliminated: John Foster and Slater Nally
 
I managed to go over 24 hours without hearing any spoilers as to who was eliminated. So, my predictions were genuine. However, when I spoke on the phone to my mother, who wanted me to watch the show so we could discuss later, she did not seem at all upset, so that was perhaps my cue that her boy John went through.
 
As I had been saying, I thought Thunderstorm, who might be splitting some African-American voters with Jamal, and even more Evangelical voters with Breanna, might have run out of time. 

Then, I thought that the country music vote split between John and Slater would finally lead to one of them being cut. I have been saying from the start that I thought Slater might win the whole thing. Both Sunday and Monday though, I thought Slater came across as having "sold out" a bit, in contrast to John, who some might think "sold out" from the very beginning. John has been more consistently himself though and to those who decided he was "the one" early one, that is all that matters, more than the singing and the music. 

It is tough to say for sure, but even if I had watched live and not gotten indirect cues from my mother, I think I would have-

Predicted to be eliminated: Slater Nally and Thunderstorm Artis
 
Who was eliminated: Slater Nally and Thunderstorm Artis
 

While I thought Slater was perhaps the frontrunner to win, I did also have Breanna, John, and Jamal as going to the Final Four from the beginning. Now, one of those three will win American Idol next Sunday. Before that, they will make "homecoming trips" to Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, red states all, although I think Jamal's town probably voted heavily for Kamala Harris.

Frankly, Thunderstorm and especially Slater may be better off not winning Idol and being under the thumb, at least for a short time, of that whole team. They seem to be songwriters deep down who want to do their own thing, while the other three are probably more malleable.

I can envision fans making the case for why either Breanna or Jamal will win. I will be surprised if I do not watch the show next week and think that one of them definitely deserved to win. They are better and more versatile singers.

However with Slater now out of the way, I will be pretty surprised if John does not win. I think Breanna will come in second, but that will wind up being secondary. For the present-day American Idol, young, cowboy hat wearing John is just a great "candidate." Young girls will like his jawline and their mothers and grandmothers will appreciate his 'aw shucks" persona and southern politeness (ie, "Miss Carrie, Mr. Luke", etc.)

It might be easy to forget that a few weeks ago, in an unguarded moment, it was John of all people who got caught reacting with a profanity on stage and having to be bleeped. Maybe that won him some votes too. It probably showed a more genuine side than the carefully crafted tv personality and Idol strategy,