Nevada Governor- Race of the Day

60 Days Until Election Day

Nevada Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

This week, the political headlines out of the Silver State, involve the elected Clark County Public Administrator, a Democrat, who has been arrested for the murder of a journalist he blamed for contributing to his recent primary defeat for reelection. The elected Clark County Sheriff is officially in charge of the facility where the suspect is being held, and that Sheriff also happens to be the current Republican nominee for Governor. To think, some believe that all those who refuse to accept election results these days are Republican.

Nevada is primed to be a key political battleground this year for statewide and Congressional races. The state has become one of the most politically competitive in recent years. The last two Presidential elections were decided by two points. Democrats won them both though, and there is the belief that the party has the advantage in political infrastructure, aided by labor unions, that helps them win elections. This year is the midterm of a Democrat President with low approval ratings, and the perception of a struggling economy, especially in a place like Nevada which saw its tourism industry hit hard by Covid and the resulting shutdowns. Those factors could lead to GOP takeovers for Governor or U.S. Senate. During the era of Trump, the Republican Party has also become more of a blue-collar party that could result in traditionally Democrat downscale voters changing their political habits.

Four years ago, Steve Sisolak became the first Democrat to be elected Governor, since an incumbent was reelected back in 1994. The then Chairman of the Clark County Commission defeated Republican Adam Laxalt, then the state Attorney General by a 49-45 margin. Heading into Election Day, it looked like the race could go either way, but the once popular Laxalt, who shares the last name of his maternal grandfather, a top GOP vote-getter from decades past, had switched his political branding to tie himself very closely to Donald Trump, and lost swing voters in the end. Another overlooked factor is that Nevada is the one state that allows an official vote for "None of the Above" (which I would be taking advantage of in several races these days), and that can affect the margin in very close races.

As Governor, Sisolak has most gotten along with the state legislature, controlled by his fellow Democrats, but has had to preside over a struggling economy and many angsty voters who were especially harmed by the decisions, whether necessary or not, to shut down casinos and other entertainment and hospitality venues, along with many months of far fewer visitors. A former Clark County Commissioner with a past that involved a drunk driving conviction challenged Sisolak in the primary, but the incumbent won easily with 89 percent.

Despite his fairly close loss, Adam Laxalt declined to seek a rematch with Sisolak, but instead ran for the Senate and is currently engaged in a close race as the Republican nominee for that office. The former Republican U.S. Senator who was unseated the same day that Laxalt lost in 2018, did run for Governor however. It was pretty amazing to see how poorly Dean Heller did in that venture. He had won statewide election several times as Secretary of State, before being elected to Congress. In 2012, Heller won a highly targeted Senate race but then lost by about five points when he sought reelection. The Mormon Senator had been seen as a fairly moderate establishment figure who did not have much in common with Donald Trump. In seeking reelection though, Heller tried to paint himself as a Trump loyalist. Many on the right did not buy it and moderate voters did not like the switch. In running for Governor, Heller made the decision to stick with MAGA messaging, such as refusing to say that Joe Biden had legitimately won the 2020 election. Republican primary voters had moved on and in the very crowded field on June 14, Heller finished in third place with 14 percent.

Potential GOP candidates such as former Lt. Governor Mark Hutchison and Congressman Mark Amodei considered running for Governor but did not. Many others stepped up. One that received some early notice was John Lee, the Mayor of suburban North Las Vegas and a former state legislator. He switched from Democrat to Republican in order to make the run for Governor, saying that his party had been taken over by socialists. Several years earlier, after he became Mayor, Lee had been investigated for child pornography possession but was never charged. Republican primary voters in 2022 decided they had better options and Lee finished in fourth place with just eight percent. He did finish above a couple wealthy businessmen who were running as political outsiders. For a time, the field also contained Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore, a very right-wing figure known for firing guns and using her ample upper body assets in campaign ads. She left the race for Governor and instead won a Republican primary for State Treasurer.

 

Most of the Republican establishment came to believe that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. An Army veteran and longtime Las Vegas police officer before joining the Sheriff's Department, Lombardo had strong credentials on the issue of crime and was someone who had been seen on television a lot in what is by far the state's largest media market, especially after the 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting.

 

Lombardo who in his previous job, though elected, was seen as more of a non-partisan figure, but as a Republican candidate for Governor, he also tacked to the right. At times, the frontrunner acted like he had the nomination in the bag and was fairly dismissive of his primary opponents during a televised debate. Running to Lombardo's right was Joey Gilbert, an attorney who had made a name for himself nationally as a middleweight boxer. He fought for some titles and won some belts, mostly between 2006 and 2010, but also ran afoul of the Nevada State Athletic Commission at times for failing drug tests. After retiring from the ring, Gilbert became a criminal defense attorney in Reno, and sought the Governorship as a combative pro-Trump acolyte.

The primary went to Lombardo over Gilbert 38-27, which while not particular close, was a bit more of a split decision that might have first been suspected, especially since Trump had officially endorsed Lombardo. Gilbert followed the Trump template though by claiming fraud, refusing to concede, and filing a lawsuit, which was quickly dismissed. The runner-up has appeared that decision, saying that he was robbed by electronic voting machines, and that while he does not hold Lombardo responsible, "real Republicans" will not vote for the nominee in November.

Despite this division in the Republican party, the race for Governor between Sisolak and Lombardo looks like a true-tossup. The Democrat incumbent is probably the most vulnerable general election incumbent seeking reelection at this point in any Gubernatorial race outside of Kansas. Both sides will obviously be trying to pull out all the stops to get their voters to the polls. If crime or inflation turn out to be at the forefront of voters minds, that will give an edge to Lombardo as the challenger. Democrats will hope though that Lombardo will be seen as having moved too far to the right and is vulnerable on an issue like abortion, which is something the party is stressing in races across the country this cycle.

Right now, the polls show a race that could go either way and with the NOTA option as well as a bunch of little known Independent candidates on the ballot, the winner will probably be a few points under 50 percent. Based on the advantages of incumbency and the recent history of Democrats pulling off wins in close Nevada contests, I think a  very slight edge has to point right now towards Sisolak.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

13 D (2 Safe, 6 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

  8 R  (3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

19 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)