Louisiana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

70 Days Until Election Day

Louisiana U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

If Louisiana's junior Republican Senator wins reelection to a second term this year, he will be on pace to be the longest serving John Kennedy in Senate history. John Neely Kennedy is of course very different than John Fitzgerald Kennedy though. The current Senator is not even Catholic, despite the fact that the state he represents is among the most Catholic in the country. The current John Kennedy though, who was born when the other one was serving in the U.S. House was once a Democrat however. The first two of his five elections as Louisiana State Treasurer were as a Democrat. Kennedy switched parties in 2007, which was not all that unusual in Louisiana not long ago, especially among Democrats becoming Republicans. This was not before the Treasurer had made a run for the U.S. Senate in 2004, doing so as the populist Democrat option. He finished third in that race, behind the first Republican ever elected to the Senate from the state, and a candidate considered a more conservative Democrat.

Louisiana famously has "jungle primaries" in which candidates of all parties file to appear on the November ballot and if nobody receives 50 percent, the top two, regardless of party, face off in a December runoff. In 2008, Kennedy again ran for the Senate, this time as the sole Republican, but the incumbent Democrat received 52 percent and avoided a runoff.

Six years later, after continuing to be reelected as Treasurer in odd number years, Kennedy ran for the Senate and the third time was the charm. In an extremely crowded open jungle, Kennedy finished first with 25 percent while a moderate Democrat took second with nearly 18 percent of the vote. The December runoff seemed like a foregone conclusion in conservative Louisiana and the Republican took 61 percent of the vote.

On Capitol Hill, Kennedy is known for his conservative voting record and for being one of the most talkative politicians around. The Senator takes pride in his quips, which often seem well-rehearsed and the things he says, some funnier than others, often are featured on Fox News Special Report Friday roundup of soundbites. In this reelection campaign, Kennedy is selling merchandise featuring his slogan of "Always Be Yourself, Unless You Suck." Clearly, he wants the voters to think he fits the former category.

Many Republicans wanted Kennedy to run for Governor of Louisiana in 2019, since he would not have to give up his seat and could appoint his own replacement if he won. He very well might have won that race, but passed on running, and for the second straight time, Democrat John Bel Edwards, a rare social conservative left in his party, won a runoff for Governor.

As is the case in Kentucky though, it is much easier for a Democrat to be elected Governor than to win a statewide federal election in today's political environment and Kennedy is the overwhelming favorite to win his third Senate term. No other Republican or conservative alternative of any major note filed to run and thus the incumbent stands a very good chance of surpassing 50 percent in the first round and avoiding a runoff.

Thirteen names will appear on the ballot though on Election Day. They include two African-American Democrats who have garnered some support. One is Syrita Steib, a non profit executive. At the age of 19, she was sentenced to a lengthy prison term for stealing cars and burning down a dealership. Steib served nine years in prison and over a decade later received a pardon from Donald Trump. She is active in criminal justice reform. I have not researched if she would be in favor of giving Trump a pardon.

The other black candidate who has received attention is community organizer Gary Chambers, who has run unsuccessfully for Congress and the State Senate. Some of his early YouTube campaign ads went viral featuring the physically imposing candidate burning a Confederate flag in one and in another smoking a large blunt.

Luke Mixon, an airline pilot and retired Navy officer who served in Afghanistan and Iraq is also running as a Democrat. He has the endorsement of Louisiana's Governor Edwards and is trying to appeal to moderates and perhaps the kind of conservative Democrats that once dominated Louisiana politics. I would be fairly surprised if Mixon finishes any better than third place in November. 

My hunch is that Chambers finishes in second place, but will be well behind Kennedy. If by some miracle, the incumbent is held under 50 percent, a Democrat would still need to beat him in a December runoff, and that is not going to happen. The most likely outcome is that Kennedy is declared an early winner on Election Night.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

7 D (4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

10 R (6 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

43 D (36 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

39 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 2 Likely, 2 Leans)