Kansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

72 Days Until Election Day

Kansas U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

As many political junkies are aware, Kansas has only elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate since 1938. The streak is not going to be broken this year minus a blue wave akin to a Smurf coup of America.

Republican Jerry Moran was elected to the Kansas State Senate in 1988, and then to Congress in 1996, representing the "Big First", a largely rural and heavily GOP district known then and still for advancing its House Members to the U.S. Senate. In 2010, Moran faced another conservative Congressman in a Republican primary to fill an open seat, and was considered the more establishment friendly of the two. He won the primary 50-45 and then cruised, as expected in the general election.

While other Kansas Republican statewide candidates for high profile office have had some struggles, dealing with rifts within the party, Moran has largely been able to avoid any such issues. Under his leadership at the NRSC, his party picked up nine seats and the Senate majority during the 2014 midterm elections. The Senator's own 2016 reelection was mostly uneventful and this month he easily won his party's nomination, though 19 percent did vote for a gadfly candidate, running to Moran's right, and who also had run for the Senate this cycle in Oklahoma.

Democrats had a six way primary that did not receive any national attention at all. Moran's most recent general election opponent, attorney Patrick Wiesner finished in third place with 18 percent. The winner, Mark Holland, defeated runner-up Paul Buskirk, an educator 38-20.

Holland looks like a credible candidate for his party, but it might not matter in a state as red as Kansas is on the federal level. A pastor from the somewhat left-leaning United Methodist Church, Holland was elected in 2013 as Mayor of Kansas City, Kansas, which has its government consolidated with that of Wyandotte County. KCK had traditionally been one of the more racially diverse and Democrat friendly places in Kansas.The Mayoral post is actually called CEO and in 2017, Holland lost his reelection bid. They must really like tossing out incumbents there, because the CEO who ousted Holland was himself ousted in 2021.

Running as a moderate Democrat in Kansas has made some candidates for state government viable, but even with all the excitement on the left behind their recent victory in Kansas on an abortion referendum, there is not any reason to believe Moran is at risk politically.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

7 D (4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

8 R (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

43 D (36 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

37 R (29 Holdover, 5 Safe. 1 Likely, 2 Leans)