Iowa U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

74 Days Until Election Day

Iowa U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Republican

In doing my classification of Iowa's Governor election, I was on the cusp of calling it "Safe Republican", but went with likely. Similarly, I struggled with whether I should call this one "Likely" Republican or not. After all, Chuck Grassley has never won reelection with less than 60 percent. This year, I think he will win, with votes to spare, but will probably be under that threshold. The limited number of polls so far on this race show a closer than expected race, so with a lot of unknowns, I have to go with "Leans Republican" for now. There is a lot of speculation that turnout will indeed be high this year among Democrats related to issues like abortion, and Iowa is also going to have three very competitive House races. The GOP may very well win all of those, and Grassley will do even better than those winners, but this contest is still one worth watching.

When farmer Charles Grassley first ran for office, Dwight Eisenhower was President. In 1974, he was one of the few Republican freshman elected to the House. In 1980, on Ronald Reagan's coattails, he ousted a liberal incumbent Senator. Having never lost an election, Grassley, who is soon to turn 89, is seeking an eight term in the Senate. He takes pride in visiting all of Iowa's counties each year and at least until recently, was known for running three miles a day. Grassley is also talked about for his somewhat unique Twitter style, in which he has done such things as announce that he accidentally killed a deer with his car or bemoaning that the History Channel does not show enough history.

Considering his age, there was speculation that Grassley might not run again. If he had not, one of the people who might have tried to replace him was his grandson Pat Grassley, the Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives. Republicans breathed a sign of relief though when he said he would run, because the long-time incumbent was considered best equipped to hold the seat. State Senator Jim Carlin though was not as pleased. He had intended to run, thinking Grassley would not, and then challenged the Senator from the right. When Donald Trump was President, Grassley, despite his success in confirming judges as the Judiciary Committee Chairman, was at times very critical of the then President. However, in seeking a new term, the Senator sidled up to Trump at a 2021 Iowa rally and won an endorsement. Grassley all but admitted that he was doing so because the former President was extremely popular among Iowa Republicans. The strategy worked as Grassley took 73 percent in the June primary.

Iowa Democrats had been very frustrated in previous attempts to target Grassley. Many of them thought they caught the best possible break when Abby Finkenauer entered the race. Fifty-five years younger than Grassley, she had been elected to the Iowa House at age 25, just like Grassley had many years before. In 2018, Iowa Democrats were having a bit of a comeback during Trump's midterm, and Finkenauer knocked off a Republican Congressman, and was off to Washington at age 30. Two years later though, she could not hang on during the Presidential year, and lost the seat by two points to a female Republican opponent, considered a stronger politician than the former GOP Congressman who had lost two years earlier.

A House member who loses reelection is rarely a good bet to get elected to the Senate quickly thereafter, but Democrats still saw potential in Finkenauer. Just a couple of months before the primary though, a judge ordered her removed from the ballot due to petition signature issues. The former Congresswoman appealed to the Iowa Supreme Court and just four days later they sided with her. By this time though, Finkenauer was not the only Democrat seeking the U.S. Senate nomination. Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken had run for the Senate in 2020 but finished a distant second behind the party's establishment choice, also a female. 

Having been way back in primary polls and vastly outspent, Franken won a very surprising victory in the June three-way primary by a solid 55-40 margin. Iowa experts were somewhat at a loss to describe why this result happened, besides perhaps the drama over whether Finkenauer would be allowed on the ballot. Perhaps, he was just seen as having more gravitas and being better prepared to debate Grassley than the younger opponent, who had just lost a Congressional seat. I also wonder if some Iowa progressives maybe had former neighboring Senator Al Franken of Minnesota, a folk hero to many on the left, even after leaving office in disgrace, on their mind.

In the general election, Franken is being backed by some former moderate Republican Members of Congress. With his military background, he probably has to be considered the strongest opponent Democrats have ever put up against Grassley. The respected Selzer poll in Iowa showed the incumbent ahead 47-39 in a July survey and that result raised some eyebrows. Iowa is looked at now as a strong Republican state, but Franken's surprise appeal in the primary, and concerns that Grassley might be too old or has been around too long cannot be discounted. For decades, Grassley was seen as someone who acted on principle and often took on people within his own party. The political embrace he gave Donald Trump last year may seem offbrand and could cost him the votes of some who had supported Grassley before.

Still though, if Grassley were to actually lose, it would probably take a "blue wave" occurring across the country. I do not see it happening. The political positioning for Democrats has improved in Senate races, but I doubt Iowa will be among the top ten races talked about this fall.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

7 D (4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

7 R (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

43 D (36 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

36 R (29 Holdover, 4 Safe. 1 Likely, 2 Leans)