Georgia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

83 Days Until Election Day

 

Georgia U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent 

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (South)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

Here are some thoughts about the Senate race in Georgia that are on my mind:

It is a great sign for America that two African-American candidates can be nominated and are competing in the Deep South for a U.S. Senate seat. 

 

This is not even the only example of such this year though, but it is the only one of those Senate races that will be competitive. If neither candidate gets 50 percent of the vote in November, they will square off in a December runoff. That was a big deal in Georgia in the last cycle and is how the current incumbent won his seat, albeit in a January runoff.

Both of these nominees are quite flawed. Both hold views that many Americans would consider out of the mainstream and that could impact their ability to win. It is also true that both men, although they have denied accusations, have been credibly accused of physical violence by their ex-wives. That is not a great sign for America.

For some reason, I doubt how much the Republican nominee actually wants to be a U.S. Senator. While it becomes more unlikely with each passing day, if I had to bet on one major nominee to end their campaign before Election Day it would be him. I also think that while it is very possible that he could get elected, I have a hard time picturing him as an actual U.S. Senator and enjoying the task.

As we move on now to look at the contest and the candidates, it should be pointed out that the 2020, or more accurately, 2021 election of Democrat Raphael Warnock to the Senate was pretty much a fluke. Popular Republican Senator Johnny Isakson resigned his seat due to health reasons and has sadly since passed away. Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp was left to select a replacement. Many in the party wanted the job. Kemp defied the wishes of Donald Trump (perhaps as a bit of foreshadowing) by picking Kelly Loeffler, a very wealthy businesswoman who had never sought office before. One of the reasons was that Kemp considered it a potential benefit for his own 2022 reelection to balance his ticket with a woman from the Atlanta area, who was considered a relative moderate. Whomever won the special election would have to run again in 2022.

In a Presidential election year, Loeffler, mindful of an unusual all candidates November primary, and the need to win conservatives over a GOP opponent, moved very closely to Trump and defended him at every turn. That allowed her to finish in front of her chief Republican opponent 26-20 and advance to January, although it would have been much better had two Republicans won the top two spots. A bunch of Democrats were running as well, but the party's voters moved to coalesce in this race (Georgia was also having a regular Senate election) behind Raphael Warnock, the pastor of Ebeneezer Baptist Church, in which he held the same role that Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. once did in Atlanta. The Reverend had been politically active and advocated some fairly left-wing stances. From the pulpit for example, he once had once used very harsh rhetoric in regards to Israel, which was something he had to try to walk back as a political candidate. Warnock finished first in the all candidate primary with 33 percent of the vote and moved on as the challenger to Loeffler.

Democrats were very energized in Georgia during the 2020, with recently defeated Gubernatorial candidate (and current nominee) Stacey Abrams very involved in voter registration efforts, especially in the African-American community. There was a sense that newly arrived voters were also helping Democrats become more viable in the state and the party rallied around Warnock and the other Senate candidate, Jon Ossoff, a very young documentary filmmaker from a Jewish background. That team would oppose freshman incumbent David Perdue and the appointed incumbent Loeffler in separate elections.

Both Republicans ran closely tied to Trump and tried to paint their opponents as liberal extremists, while the Democrats took issue with the voting records and personal financial dealings of the two wealthy Republicans. Loeffler was often awkward on the campaign trail and was criticized for leveling what was called over the top attacks on Warnock in regards to statements he had made years earlier about the military. The Democrat nominee and pastor was also going through a divorce and custody battle during this campaign. His estranged wife had told police in March of that year that he ran over her foot with his car. With no visible signs of injury, he was not charged. 

 

Loeffler did debate her opponent, unlike Perdue who skipped later debates. This allowed Ossoff to join in the attack on Warnock's opponent by saying she had been "campaigning with a Klansman." In fact, she had merely posed for a photo with someone whom she likely had no idea who he was. The tone against Loeffler by Democrats was racially tinged. As the co-owner of Atlanta's WNBA franchise, several players, Loeffler saw several players, whom she had considered herself on friendly terms with, publicly demonstrate support for Warnock.

A strong turnout in Georgia helped Joe Biden narrowly beat Trump in the state, after which he cried fraud. Perdue finished in front of Ossoff but did not quite hit 50 percent. It was a given that the special election primary would necessitate a January runoff. With Joe Biden as President-Elect, the Democrats holding the House, and Republicans needing to win just one of the seats to keep the Senate majority, and serve a a check and balance on Democrats, it should have been a slam dunk for Republicans to win both of these runoffs. Georgia Republicans had demonstrated an ability to do so before in post general election runoffs, going back to the 1990s.Trump continued to insist that something rotten had happened in the State of Georgia, that had cost him the state's electoral votes and that the same thing would happen in the runoff. This made it much harder to motivate Trump supporters to vote in the runoff. Perdue and Loeffler both were left with no choice but to back Trump on his claims of election theft and said they would not vote to certify the election on January 6, the day after the runoff. Republicans desperately needed a strong turnout on January 5. Trump showed up at an election eve rally and talked far more about himself and his grievances than he did urge voters to support the GOP Senate nominees.

Conventional wisdom was that Ossoff was a somewhat stronger bet than Warnock, who had more liberal baggage. Ultimately, both Democrats won 51-49, though Warnock did a bit better than Ossoff. I wonder how much of that might be due to reluctance by a select in the African-American community who voted for Warnock to vote for a Jewish candidate. In any event, Georgia Republicans allowed Trump to help them blow what should have been close to a sure thing and the end result was that Democrats took over the Senate to have undivided control of the elected federal government (though Joe Manchin of West Virginia was about to become very powerful.)

Warnock would have to keep an active campaign going as he would be before the voters in 2022. In the May primary, he easily dispatched another black candidate with 96 percent of the vote and by this time, it was quite clear whom the GOP would pick to oppose him.

A slew of Republicans wanted to run against Warnock, believing, with some logic behind it, that they would have a good shot of knocking him off in a more conventional midterm election. Donald Trump loves football players though and pushed heavily for months to get Herschel Walker, a Texas resident, to run in his native state of Georgia.

Walker, the 1982 Heisman Trophy winner, was one of the most successful college football players in history, leading the Georgia Bulldogs to a national championship in 1980. The team won the title again for the first time since, at the beginning of this year, which could be a good omen for Walker. The Running Back would go on to have a very decent professional football career, including 13 years in the NFL, but never quite lived up to expectations.

After leaving football, Walker became involved in business ventures and charities. He actually first got to know Trump back in 1982, when he signed to play for Trump's New Jersey Generals in the ill-fated USFL. Then, the two reconnected when Walker appeared on the 2009 season of NBC's "The Celebrity Apprentice." He made it to 7th place before being fired by Trump, whom in doing so talked about how much he always admired the football player. While I mostly just remember Joan and Melissa Rivers storming off the show that season and insulting poker player Annie Duke, I think I remember that Walker came across as a good guy on the show. I also was impressed several years ago when I watched a documentary about his life leading up to and including his college career. Walker had grown up in very modest circumstances and like Joe Biden, was sometimes bullied for having a stutter. Several years later, Walker would have even greater reality show glory by winning Food Network's Rachel vs. Guy: Celebrity Cook-Off. It is a shock that Guy Fieri has not tried to get Walker to run for Mayor of "Flavortown."

Walker was a celebrity supporter of Trump's Presidential bids, and Trump of course loves celebrity support. These are factors that led him to wanting to see Herschel Walker run in Georgia against a black Democrat. What is also part of the story is that Walker has had some troubling issues since the end of his football career. He has claimed that he should be given credit for candor, but he has admitted to having had multiple personality disorder and playing Russian roulette. He also admitted that he sought professional help after being tempted to murder a man regarding a dispute over a car. During a 2001 divorce from his first wife, whom he had been with since college, he was accused of mental and physical abuse. Walker was alleged by his wife of holding a razor to her throat and threatening to kill her. He said he did not remember that happening, but that his condition sometimes caused him to blackout. It does not appear the candidate is blaming head injuries sustained during football as the cause of his past mental problems. The first Mrs. Walker has also told the media that her ex-husband threatened her with knives and on multiple occasions threatened to shoot her or others closer to her in the head.

As a candidate, Walker has talked about the need for black fathers to be more present in the lives of their children. It has recently come out that he has three children from out of wedlock relationships that were not publicly acknowledged before the campaign. The candidate insists that he was always supportive of these children but is reported to have lied about the situation to his campaign staff, until they confronted him with evidence. The one child, from his marriage, that Walker had acknowledged is is his 22 year old son. Christian Walker, has become a flamboyant presence on social media. He has said he is 'attracted to men" but not gay, and seems to relish in MAGA-like trolling of the left online, including the gay community.

 

The GOP primary saw several candidates run against Walker, including Gary Black, the state Agriculture Commissioner, who raised doubts about the front-runners electability and conservative bonafides.  Trump's support in this race at least, as well as Walker's celebrity made all the difference in Georgia. National Republican leaders, such as Mitch McConnell, felt like they had little choice but to announce they also supported the man who was likely to win the primary in a walk to the endzone. The Republican vote saw Walker beat Black 68-13, which was closer than the polls had predicted. A possible reason is that Democrats crossed over to vote for Governor Brian Kemp, as a means to oppose Trump's wishes, and then voted for someone other than Walker as well. It is amazing that Kemp, whom with Trump gunning for him was counted out at one point, won a higher percentage than Walker did in the Senate primary.

Both candidates say they want to debate the other in this general election, and if that happens, it will be highly anticipated. Warnock, as a pastor, is quite a gifted orator, while Walker, very much sounds like someone who grew up in rural Georgia. To be kind, he has a very hard time expressing himself verbally. If he were not running as a conservative Republican candidate, many on the right would be making fun of him. By the same standard, many on the left who attack Walker on those grounds, would be saying it was racist to do so, if he were a Democrat. Republican insiders have come to accept that the first time candidate will make gaffes on the campaign trail and say things that come across as incomprehensible as well. For year, Walker claimed to have graduated from the University of Georgia at the top of his class, but in reality, he left school after his junior season to play football professionally. He did apparently have an impressive enough B average in college.

On the issues, Walker's website and general statements have positioned himself as an across the board conservative. He might have angered his political benefactor though when he responded to questions by saying he did not know if the 2020 election was stolen and that Trump had no influence in his deciding to run for the Senate and that he was "mad" at Trump for taking credit for it. 

Georgia is still a conservative state, but in many ways, the Herschel Walker campaign seems not ready for prime time, and Republicans are already fearful they made a big mistake in nominating him. Someone in his own campaign leaked a story in which his staffers were claiming that their candidate was a "pathological liar" who had severe mood swings that make them concerned for his mental health. Basically, the people who still work for him think he is a ticking time bomb of a candidate. On the bright side for Walker's supporters is the reality that being a pathological liar is a strong point in today's Republican Party.

The polls in the state are close, although Warnock has had a slight lead in any of them. Walker's celebrity definitely helped him easily capture a Senate nomination, but his weaknesses of a candidate are now on either greater display, and it makes it difficult for the party to focus on issues related to Warnock personally or those that which might favor Georgia Republicans this year.

Any other credible Republican challenger, including someone who is black, would almost certainly be ahead of Warnock in the polls now consistently. Nonetheless, it remains feasible for Walker to benefit from dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration and win a southern federal election this year. If I had to guess though, he will fall short. Right now, partisans in both parties are acting like they are far more confident than they should be that their guy will win. At least until if and when Walker does or says something completely bonkers, this is a Tossup race.

The real question Georgia Republicans probably need to ask is if there is any way to convince Herschel Walker to drop out and be replaced on the ballot before it is too late.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

5 D (2 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

41 D (36 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

33 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely, 1 Leans)