Colorado U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

89 Days Until Election Day

 

Colorado U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is certainly a favorite to win reelection in November, but unlike some of the other Senate contenders in his party, is not getting to face off against an overly problematic and politically vulnerable winner of a Republican primary.

 

The Senator had a somewhat quick and surprising political ride and has beaten back tougher odds before. In 2009, he was serving as Superintendent of the Denver public schools when the state's Democrat Governor appointed him to the Senate to fill a vacancy. In getting the gig, Bennet was chosen over more well-known possibilities, including then Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, to whom Bennet had served as Chief of Staff. Hickenlooper would go on to become Governor and is now Bennet's junior colleague in the Senate. Most interestingly, the two were both contenders in the party's large field of 2020 Presidential contenders as both presented themselves as somewhat more moderate and electable options to take on Donald Trump. Both Coloradans failed to generate any level of enthusiasm among the base discovered though that there was little avenue in the party for a Presidential candidate who was a straight white male, and not also a democratic socialist or Barack Obama's Vice President.

To stay in the Senate though, Bennet had to beat back a primary challenger from his left in 2010, who was initially considered the favorite and then a battleground general election which gaffes and controversy from the Republican nominee enabled Bennet to win a full term with 48 percent of the vote, in the midst of a strong GOP year nationwide. His 2016 campaign against another outspoken conservative was supposed to be fairly easy, but Bennet  won with just under 50 percent. Still, he won more votes than any statewide Democrat candidate in history and made inroads into traditional Republican territory.

Bennet's entrance into the Presidential race was delayed a bit after he had surgery for prostate cancer. He dropped out of the race on the night of the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Bennet has become a bit more outspoken, especially in criticizing Republicans on Capitol Hill. Some further to the left in Colorado spoke of a primary challenge but not ran against the incumbent. On the contrary, a slew of Republicans emerged to take on Bennet.

Colorado has a system in which the candidates had to compete at an April primary, dominated by conservative party activists, hoping to garner enough support to make the June primary ballot. The other option was for candidates to forgo the convention process and garner enough signatures of voters to make the primary ballot. A few younger Republicans were seeking statewide office for the first time and were viewed by some in the party as having potential against Bennet. They were defeated at the gathering though and the official party endorsement, with 39 percent went to Ron Hanks, a recently elected State Representative. A similar situation occurred in the convention vote for Governor, where a very right-wing candidate took the top ballot spot for the primary with a similar margin. He would lose in the primary, as Hanks would eventually.

A businessman and longtime member of the Air Force, Hanks had run for Congress from California in 2010, under a different first name. He lost that race in a landslide, but took positions that were far more moderate than the rhetoric he had become known for in the Colorado State House or as a Senate candidate. He had threatened to fight colleagues in both parties and was criticized for remarks he made about lynching and slavery. Hanks said his remarks were taken out of contest. The state legislator also took part in the January 6 march to the Capitol but apparently did not enter the building. The lightly funded Hanks, was boosted financially by hypocritical Democrats, hoping to see him nominated by Republicans. This is a strategy that has worked in other contests in other states in recent months.

 

By primary day, it looked like a very real possibility that Republicans could nominate Hanks as their Senate candidate.The one remaining opponent, who had gotten on to the ballot by petition was considered more of a B level candidate without some of the political appeal of those who had lost at the convention to Hanks. However, construction company owner Joe O'Dea won the two way primary by nine points, in a bit of a surprise, at least in terms of the margin, and some Republicans around the country breathed a sign of relief. Some Colorado MAGA die-hards insisted there might be something sinister about the primary results.

 

In the primary, both contenders played up their blue collar identities and O'Dea was willing to be seen as a similar to Trump in regards to being a political outsider and successful businessman. He took some positions though that were a bit more towards the Republican Party of past vintage than those being pushed by Trump. More recently, O'Dea has gone further than just about any Senate nominee in the country by saying that he hopes that Trump does not run in 2024 and that "I don't want to see him as President."

 

That is a pretty bold and courageous statement to make for a Republican in today's political environment. While Trump fell far short in Colorado in 2020, many of his supporters could choose to boycott voting for O'Dea out of spite. The GOP nominee is also clear though that he does not want Biden to run either and has called the incumbent the "worst President we have ever had."

In the general election, it will be hard to beat an incumbent, who is not viewed as a radical leftist, in a state like Colorado, where the political landscape has moved towards Democrats in recent cycles. However, a smart Republican campaign in 2014 was able to unseat a Democrat incumbent who focused too much on social issues. Time will tell if the overall environment in a midterm election is anywhere similar to what it was in 2014 or 2010. If so, Bennet could be burdened by the unpopularity of the Biden Administration and this race could become a sleeper. For now though, the incumbent has the edge.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

3 D (1 Safe, 2 Leans), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

39 D (36 Holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Leans) 32 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely)