Arkansas Governor- Race of the Day

94 Days Until Election Day

Arkansas Governor

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Thirty years ago, when Bill Clinton was elected President, Arkansas was dominated by Democrats at the state level. While Republicans had carried the southern state during their 1980s Presidential landslides, progress for the GOP came slower than just about any other southern state. Only one historically Republican part of Arkansas was reliable for the party.

These days, Democrats are almost an afterthought in the state.This trend began to change in 1993 when a Baptist pastor, fresh off a 20 point U.S. Senate defeat was encouraged by then State Republican Chair Asa Hutchinson to run in a special election for Lt. Governor. Huckabee won that race, and the previous Lt. Governor, who had moved up to replace Bill Clinton, was soon ensnared in Whitewater related and resigned in 1996. Mike Huckabee was then Governor, and won two elections to the office in his own right. He became nationally known after a 2008 Republican Presidential bid, in which he had strong Evangelical support. Huckabee passed on running for the White House in 2012, as he was by then hosting a show on Fox News, but did run in the 2016 cycle, when he was unable to make much noise at all.

Asa Hutchinson had his own up and down career in Arkansas politics before finally winning the Governorship in 2014. Four years later, he was reelected in the largest margin of victory ever seen for a Republican in the state. Now, Hutchinson, a staunch social conservative is term-limited and his most recent term has seen him have his share of differences with an even more conservative state legislature on issues like Covid and abortion. Hutchinson is a frequent guest on Sunday morning national news shows and has been one of the willing voices to say that the party needs to move on from Donald Trump. While he is reserved in being too critical of the former President, he has said that Trump lost the last election and that he should not run again in 2024. There is speculation that the almost 72 year old outgoing Governor is thinking about launching an uphill battle for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Arkansas's next Governor is someone who can be expected to be much more vocally pro-Trump. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who turns 40 in a week, is the daughter of the former Governor. She would be the first ever female Governor of her state and the first daughter to ever serve as the chief executive of the same sate where she was once First Daughter. Long active in her father's political campaigns, including top level posts in his Presidential runs, Sanders hooked up with the Trump campaign in 2016. She had also been involved in numerous other Republican campaigns during her young life. Besides for a brief stint working for George W. Bush's Department of Education, her entire professional career has been in the political realm.

Sanders came to Washington with Trump as his Deputy Press Secretary, and after six months in that post, Trump picked her to replace her boss, whom the then President had soured on. Sanders served as White House Press Secretary for almost two years. She was praised for being able to relentlessly stay on message, but critics pointed to numerous examples of dishonest statements. Sanders was known to push back vigorously against the media, which of course is what Trump liked and expected. Robert Mueller's report as Special Counsel stated that Sanders openly lied to the media surrounding fired FBI Director James Comey on several occasions. Sanders had admitted under oath that she had no basis for some of her statements but that she simply had a "slip of the tongue."

 

Like many high profile members of the Trump Administration, Sanders became fodder for comedians. She was mocked for her appearance and way of speaking on shows such as Saturday Night Live though in the bizzaro world of the Trump White House, Aidy Bryant's impression seemed fairly realistic.When she said she would be leaving her post to spend more time with her young children, Trump himself said that Sanders was possibly going to be Governor of Arkansas and he offered her his early support. It could arguably he said that she parted and has remained on better terms with Trump than anybody else who has been in his inner circle, including those he is related to.

Just as Trump had left the White House, Sarah Huckabee Sanders did announce her campaign for Governor. She quickly raised a lot of money and an endorsement from Trump made her the clear frontrunner. Two other candidates, with more experience also wanted the job, but quickly would play some political musical chairs as first Lt. Governor Tim Griffin exited the race to seek the open office of Attorney General. Then, the current Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, who had been running for Governor as a strong Trump supporter, exited the field to run for Lt. Governor. Both will now share the general election ballot with Sanders, who won the May primary with 83 percent of the vote. Her one remaining opponent, radio host Francis "Doc" Washburn ran to Sanders' right and mostly focused on Covid mandates regarding masks and vaccines.

I could very easily classify this race as "Safe Republican" and I will not at all be surprised if the final margin winds up being 20 points or more. There has not been any recent polling though, so in an open race, with a somewhat polarizing candidate going up against a reasonably credible opponent, I am cautiously calling this, for now, as "Likely Republican."

In November, Sanders will face write in candidate Elvis Presley, but more significantly Democrat Chris Jones, who is a pastor and nuclear engineer. He also headed a non-profit agency in the state. When Jones announced his candidacy for Governor, Democrats across the country expressed how impressed they were with his inspirational kick off video. 

Like several other southern states, Democrat politics in Arkansas is now mostly influenced by the African-American vote, and Jones is the state's first ever black Gubernatorial nominee. He won his party's primary with 70 percent of the vote. The second place finisher, Anthony Bland, an African-American teacher and the 2018 nominee for Lt. Governor fell just short of 10 percent. Finishing in third place with just eight percent was Jay Martin, who had at one point been the State House Majority Leader. He ran as one of the few remaining conservative Democrats. Clearly, the party had moved on from the days early in this century when Democrats still had some power in Little Rock and could claim to have a number white conservative or moderate voters.

 

Chris Jones seems like an impressive candidate, but he is running in a state where it will be extremely hard to win as a Democrat. Sarah Huckabee Sanders may also not be that natural of a politician, despite her family pedigree, but the R next to her name is probably all it would take to win this year.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Leans) , 3 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

7 D (6 Holdovers, 1 Leans),  11 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely)