Alaska U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

97 Days Until Election Day

Alaska U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Likely Republican (Leans Murkowski)

In 2002, longtime Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska, in what seemed to be a cap to his career. To fill the vacancy his election created, he appointed his own daugther Lisa Murkowski, then an up and coming state legislator. This brought about cries of nepotism in both parties and the younger Murkowski was lucky to win a full term in 2004 against a former Democrat Governor. Governor Murkowski would not recover though in part because of the selection and he was defeated in 2006 in the GOP primary by the soon to be well-known Sarah Palin.

 

While a reliable Republican vote for home state energy interests and other matters related to Alaska, Senator Murkowski has easily been one of the least conservative GOP Senators since arriving on Capitol Hill, and is one of the very small number of remaining pro-choice Republican Senators. Overall, she has amassed a voting record near the exact center of the Senate. Serious opposition to her among Alaska Republicans festered though and in 2010, she was taken by surprise and narrowly defeated in the Republican primary by a controversial opponent. After this result, and after she conceded defeat, Democrats feared that the new Republican nominee could wind up going to the Senate and many Republicans feared that he was such a flawed candidate he could lose to a Democrat. Murkowski was persuaded to embark on a rare write-in strategy for the November election and in historic fashion, she topped both major party nominees with about 40 percent of the vote. While many Democrats (and especially Native Americans in the state) had helped her win as a write-in, she had pledged throughout that campaign to remain a Republican in the Senate.

 

Murkowski's 2016 reelection win with 44 percent was basically a walk in the park by comparison. The man who had beaten her for the official Republican nomination six years ago came in a distant second as the Libertarian nominee and the official Democrat nominee finished in fourth place with just 12 percent of the vote.

 

The election of Donald Trump as President would complicate matters immensely though for Murkowski. While she was an ally on Alaska issues, she opposed Trump on other measures and often appeared very uncomfortable speaking about him. She was the only Republican Senator to not vote yes to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, those she compromised by voting "Present." Most significantly though, while she had voted to acquit Trump during his first Impeachment trial, she was one of six Republican Senators to vote to convict the then former President in his second trial. Before he left office, she had called him on to resign over inciting the January 6 insurrection and openly questioned whether she would be able to remain a Republican.

Needless to say, this rose the ire of Trump, who vowed to defeat the Senator. This year, she is the only Republican Senator who voted to convict Trump on the ballot. Less than half of the GOP House Members who voted to impeach him the second time are likely to make the November ballot. 

As talked about in the discussion of the Gubernatorial race, Alaska now has an all party primary system in which the top four finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November ballot, and then a winner must receive a majority of the vote through ranked choice voting, which would be a mark Murkowski has never achieved.

Senate Leadership typically supports incumbents and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, understanding of how crucial her vote in the Senate is, has stated how important he believes reelecting Murkowski is. Other Republican Senators have joined in supporting her bid for another term, including home state colleague Dan Sullivan. Notably, Murkowski can also claim the support of a small handful of her Senate colleagues who caucus with the Democrats.

MAGA world is all in on defeating her though and if it was a traditional Republican primary, she would almost certainly lose. The intricacies of the state's new system though make her at least a modest favorite to survive and return to Washington.

While Sarah Palin has feuded with Murkowski for years now, and has threatened to challenge her before in multiple cycles, she did not make this race, and is instead currently engaged as a finalist in a special U.S. House race to fill a vacancy. If elected officially later this month on August 16, the same day as the state's regular primary elections, Palin and Murkowski will officially be colleagues in Alaska's typically tight-knit Congressional delegation, though polls show Palin may have a tough time winning a final ranked choice round.

The candidate being supported officially by Trump and Alaska Republicans, who have moved to censure Murkowski over her Impeachment vote, is Kelly Tshibaka, a former state Administration commissioner (whatever that entails.) Tshibaka is clearly promising to be a more conservative Senator than her Republican opponent.

 

On August 16, Tshibaka and Murkowski will definitely finish as the top two vote getters out of a whopping 20 candidates and I would expect Tshibaka to finish first. The third place finisher will almost certainly be a Democrat. That party has had some confusion over just how seriously they wanted to play in this race. Some wanted to go all in and a somewhat touted candidate entered the race and then dropped out. Others have suggested they just back the moderate Murkowski, who had shown independence from Republicans, such as recently voting to confirm Kentanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Democrats have seem to have taken a middle approach and many liberals are supporting Pat Chesbro, a retired teacher. The party activist is running as an unabashed progressive.

So, while the conservative, moderate, and liberal women are all likely to advance, probably in that order, the fourth spot is pretty much up for grabs and also probably fairly irrelevant. They may not even hit double digits. It could be a Democrat who has run for office many times. the one Libertarian, an Independent, or the choice of the Alaskan Independence Party. Once again, there are a slew of folks on the ballot. This is where the ranked choice factor comes into play however.

After the second round of votes, the expectation is that Tshibaka will still be ahead and could possibly increase her margin over Murkowski. That will almost certainly be the Republican challenger's high water mark though. Those who voted in the first two rounds for Chesbro, (also known as Democrats who were not already behind Murkowski) will then back the incumbent over her Trumpist opponent. While Democrats have been engaged in all sorts of unethical games recently trying to help MAGA Republicans beat mainstream Republicans, whom they had hypocritically praised as "essential to democracy", an actual election being on the line may be a different story.

One factor I have considered since the unexpected death of Congressman Don Young, who had served the state at large for over 50 years, is that with his seniority gone, keeping Murkowski, the state's senior Senator in place, becomes more important in terms of federal projects and dollars for the sparsely populated state. Her Senate colleague is only in his second term and a new House Member is just about to be elected.

It may not be pretty, but I expect Murkowski will taste victory over Tshibaka on the third round of ranked choice voting, by a reasonably close margin. She  will do so with an R next to her name, but with the lion's share her support coming from voters not in her party. even less than other examples from history such as her own write in victory in 2010 or Joe Lieberman's 2006 Independent reelection win.

In calling this race, "Likely Republican", I am making it clear that there is virtually no path forward for an actual Democrat to win the Senate seat, but one has to at least consider the possibility that after the election, perhaps with a Senate majority on the line, and a Chairmanship to be offered, Murkowski could decide to caucus with the Democrats. McConnell and many in the Senate GOP would feel double crossed of course, but loyalty to principle or former pledges seems to be out the window in today's politics. The odds are against that happening though and I expect Murkowski will remain a Republican, and a bete noire of Trumpworld.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

0 D, 2 R (1 Safe, 1 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

36 D (36 Holdover) 31 R (29 Holdover, 1 Safe. 1 Likely)