Alabama Governor- Race of the Day

100 Days Until Election Day

Alabama Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Governor Kay Ivey first ran for statewide office in Alabama 40 years ago. Back then, the state was dominated by Democrats, and that is the party banner she unsuccessfully sought the office of Auditor under. Twenty years later, Alabama had moved significantly towards the Republican Party, and Ivey was elected State Treasurer as a member of the GOP. Another generation has now passed, and Ivey has held statewide office ever since, as the Republican Party now completely dominates the "Heart of Dixie."

Elevated to the Governorship from Lt. Governor in 2017, after the scandal induced resignation of her predecessor, Ivey won a full term in 2018, and the nation's oldest Governor is now the overwhelming favorite to win another term at the age of 78. Her time as Governor has seen her endure some politically motivated rumors about her personal life, and revelations of having worn blackface decades earlier as a college student. She also was diagnosed and successfully treated for lung cancer.

Once considered one of the more relatively moderate Alabama Republicans, Governor Ivey has stakes out very conservative positions on social issues such as abortion. In 2019, Alabama became among the first of states to pass a bill outlawing abortion. Although blocked at the time by a federal judge, the recent overturning of Roe vs. Wade marks a significant political and policy victory for Ivey and her allies on the issue.

 

Despite all of this, Ivey has not been immune to criticism and primary challengers from the right within her party. She was especially criticized during the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic for measures the state took to try to stop the spread of the virus and she would later state her opposition to such things as mask mandates. In 2021, she made headlines by urging residents of her state to get vaccinated and by saying it was time to "start blaming the unvaccinated" for the prevalence of Covid.

Ivey incurred the wrath of political ally Donald Trump when local officials cancelled a MAGA rally in 2021 for the former President. Holding the Governor personally responsible, Trump began to call publicly for her to be defeated in a primary. However, much like what happened in 2018, opposition to the incumbent was fractured, and perhaps sensing a lost cause, Trump never followed through with endorsing an opponent. Ivey ran ads echoing Trump's claims that the 2020 election had been stolen from him.

Her main competitor in the May primary wound up being Lynda Blanchard, who had served as Trump's Ambassador to his wife's native country of Slovenia. Blanchard switched from a crowded primary for an open U.S. Senate seat, in which she was trailing, to the Gubernatorial primary, likely because she was led to believe Trump would publicly back her. The GOP primary for Governor failed to generate the headlines (and attention of Trump) that the Senate race did however, and Ivey won renomination by a 54-19 margin over Blanchard, making the possibility of a runoff moot. Finishing in third place out of nine total candidates with 16 percent was businessman, who also ran to Ivey's right. The son of a former Governor, James pulled off the feat in 2022 of finishing in the third place (over three separate decades) in three Republican Gubernatorial primaries.

Alabama is such a Republican state that Ivey's general election is basically an afterthought and Democrats will not have as credible of a nominee as they had just four years ago. The state will see two women face off for Governor for the first time in it's history and this race might also be of special interest to botany lovers as it will be Ivey vs. Flowers.in November.

As mentioned, Democrats in Alabama have seen the party atrophy to a tremendous amount over recent decades. Like other southern states, the number of whites who no longer identify with it have essentially rendered it as a party dominated by African-Americans (the fluke Senate election of Doug Jones under crazy circumstances aside.)

Most of the contenders for the Governorship among Democrats were black and two advanced to a June runoff. In this initial vote, teacher Yolanda Flowers edged State Senator Malika Sanders-Fortier 34-33 and then took the runoff 55-45. Flowers might have been helped by the African-American church vote, as the candidate was vocal in expressing her Christian beliefs. It is also worth nothing that Flowers is likely among a very small number of Democrats running in 2022 who identifies as Pro-Life on the issue of abortion. Flowers has called for a larger social safety net and some exceptions to go along with her anti-abortion views.

Nonetheless, many Democrats in the state who were not paying close attention to the primary and runoff were said to be surprised to learn that they had nominated a Pro Life candidate for Governor and basically decided that a race which will end in a blowout win for the Republican incumbent is not likely to be one that they even give much thought to the remainder of this year.

 

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

0 D, 1 R (1 Safe)

Total with predictions thus far:

6 D (6 Holdovers),  9 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe)