Alaska Governor- Race of the Day

98 Days Until Election Day

Alaska Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Likely Republican (Likely Dunleavy)

For a long time, Alaska federal politics was known for the stability of long-time Republican incumbents representing the state in both Houses of Congress. There has since been more turnover at that level, but it is surprising to realize that nobody has been elected to a second term in the Office of Governor since 1998. This year, Mike Dunleavy will attempt to break that streak which would also make him the first Republican to win a second term since way back in 1978.

More likely than not, the Republican will find a way to do so, but there are some unique complexities to this race, although it may also be taking a backseat nationally and in the state to the contests this year in which Lisa Murkowski will try to hold on to a Senate seat with MAGA-world gunning for her and also a currently unfolding special election (to be followed by the regular election) of its vacant House seat after a 50 year plus incumbent passed away in office. That race could bring former Governor Sarah Palin to Congress.

For the first time in state history and as the only example of this happening statewide this year, the system in Alaska is dramatically different. Two weeks from today, 10 Gubernatorial candidates (and their designated Lt. Governor running mates) will all run together in a jungle (or perhaps tundra) primary, and the top four, regardless of party, will advance to November. If that were not unconventional enough, Alaska now has "ranked choice voting." People will rank the candidates one to four, and a winner will not be decided until somebody hits a majority, as the lowest finishing candidates gets eliminated. This is certain to go two rounds this year and probably three.

Dunleavy's current Lt. Governor is not running again this cycle, so the Governor has picked Nancy Dalhstrom, a former state Department of Corrections official and former State Representative to run with him as Republicans. Donald Trump endorsed the incumbent with the demand that he not support Murkowski in the Senate race. Dunleavy agreed to do that, but has not come out in favor of the Senator's opponent. The state Republican Party, perhaps considering the weirdness of the primary system, has endorsed two tickets, backing both Dunleavy as well as former Kenai Mayor Charlie Pierce. Running along with former Air Force Lt. Colonel Edie Grunwald, who had also run for Lt. Governor four  years ago, Pierce seems to be claiming that Dunleavy has not been sufficiently conservative. Other GOP tickets are also on the primary ballot, including the even more pro-MAGA  Republican team of State Representative Christopher Kurka and businessman Paul Hueper are in the mix, but the math might be difficult for them to make the top four.

Democrats in Alaska have in recent history needed some breaks or the help of multi-candidate races to win statewide. They had been bullish a couple years ago on physician Al Gross, who technically ran as Independent, backed by Democrats, but he lost the 2020 Senate race by double digits and did not enter the contest for Governor. He instead entered the Congressional Special Election and then surprisingly dropped out. Thus, Democrats have settled on former State Representative Les Gara as their nominee for Governor along with teacher and union official Jessica Cook for Lt. Governor. They seem to be running on populist themes along with the claim that Gara is the only pro-choice candidate in the field.

This race is additionally interesting because the most recent former Governor is also running. Bill Walker was a long-time Republican who had made a previous run for Governor. In 2014, he ran as an Independent and cut a deal with the then nominee of the Democrats to join him for Lt. Governor. Together, (and with the support of most Democrats and Sarah Palin) they narrowly unseated the GOP incumbent with a plurality of the vote. Walker had a tumultuous four years in office and saw his Democrat Lt. Governor partner resign facing allegations of personal misconduct. Running as an Independent and polling a distant third, Walker pulled the plug on his reelection campaign and endorsed the Democrat, although it was too late to be removed from the ballot. The Republican Dunleavy won the job with 51 percent of the vote. Now, Walker is running again as an Independent, teamed up with former State Labor Commissioner Heidi Drygas (quite the ballot name there.)

The new top four advance aspect plus ranked choice voting make it less necessary for someone like Walker to need to cut a formal deal with the Democrats. Still, he likely has support from within that party and points to himself as the only person who might be able to defeat Dunleavy in a one-on-one final round.

The most anticipated outcome would be that Republican challenger Pierce makes the Final Four but loses out in the first round of voting. This would then leave Dunleavy to face the Democrat Gara and the one-time Democrat adjacent Governor Walker. In theory he could narrowly prevail over split opposition at this point, but anti-Dunleavy Republicans may pick someone else as their second choice out of spite. 

A traditional final round of Dunleavy vs. Gara would make it very likely for a traditional Republican win. If Walker emerges as Dunleavy's final competitor, then there are some serious unknowns. It would be smart of Dunleavy to remind voters in both major parties about what they might have disliked about Walker's Administration.

It will be late at night across most of the country when the polls do close in Alaska in November. Dunleavy is probably going to win a second term but it could take a few days to figure out exactly what happened, and even then, it will almost certainly not be the biggest political story coming from the state.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

0 D, 2 R (1 Safe, 1 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

6 D (6 Holdovers),  10 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 1 Likely)