Arkansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

93 Days Until Election Day

Arkansas U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

I have found a lot that I felt needed to be mentioned in talking about all the previous races this past week, but there is far less to say about the U.S. Senate contest in Arkansas. The only real suspense was if the GOP incumbent would have been held to under 50 percent against three challengers in the May primary and forced into a June runoff.

Republican John Boozman first won a U.S. House special election in 2001 and less than a decade later, benefited from the dramatic shift towards his party in the state. He defeated a Democrat incumbent Senator in a 2010 midterm landslide.and had little difficulty winning a second term six years later against an opponent whom Democrats had once thought had statewide promise. This was after he had emergency heart surgery in 2014. In the Senate, Boozman has been a reliably conservative vote but has been one of the least visible members of the body in terms of a national profile.

Some on the right have wanted the state to elect a louder, more activist conservative. Despite the fact that the incumbent had the endorsement of Donald Trump, Boozman faced three challengers who ran to his right. The most significant of whom was Jake Bequette who was running a non-profit in the state. The 33 year old candidate had first made a name for himself as an Arkansas Razorback football player, and like the husband of the Alabama U.S. Senate Republican nominee, played briefly and sparingly for the New England Patriots in the NFL. Bequette even won a Super Bowl ring for being a member of the team's practice squad. After his NFL career, he became an Army officer and served for a few months in Iraq.

Politics seems to be even more of a family affair in Arkansas than most states. Boozman's older brother was once a U.S. Senate nominee for example. In this primary season, Jake's much older cousin Chris Bequette ran as a Republican for Lt. Governor and finished in last place. The Senate candidate did better, after appearing frequently on conservative cable news, but still lost 58-21 to Boozman. Jan Morgan, a gun range owner, who had run for Governor in 2018, ran as the most MAGA of them all, but finished in third with 19 percent, notably almost matching Bequette's finish.

So, Boozman more than easily passed the 50 percent mark, needed to avoid a runoff. The Democrats also did the same, albeit in a much lower profile primary. The winner was Natalie James, a realtor who had also been active in civil rights causes. She would be Arkansas's first black Senator, sharing a ticket with a man who would be the state's first black Governor. James won her primary with 54 percent, while Dan Whitfield, a liberal activist, who is white took 31 percent. Two years earlier, he ran for the Senate as an Independent but did not stay in the race until the end. Democrats did not even field a candidate in 2020. In third place with 15 percent was Jack Foster, an African-American former Pine Bluff Alderman.While holding that office in 2014, Foster was convicted of extortion and served time in federal prison.

Arkansas is a very Republican state and there is little reason to believe that Natalie James can be competitive. This contest will have more of a spread between the winner and loser than the open Gubernatorial race. The last time a Democrat was President, Arkansas decisively ousted two incumbent Democrats during separate midterms. In this midterm year, with a Democrat as President, and having survived a primary challenge, Boozman has not much to worry about.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Leans), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

37 D (36 Holdover, 1 Leans) 32 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely)