Colorado Governor- Race of the Day

90 Days Until Election Day

Colorado Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

It was not all that long ago that Colorado was one of the "purplest" states in the country, matching the color scheme of their MLB franchise. The two major parties both won elections for Governor and U.S. Senate. While there are still conservative outposts in the Rocky Mountain State, as a whole it has moved far closer to blue. Factors such as increasing numbers of Californians moving a bit to the east and the recent fall-off of Republicans in the white collar suburbs have played a part in making the state more reliable for Democrats.

Incumbent Democrat Jared Polis seeking a second term as Governor and many see the person who became a millionaire at a very young age through business endeavors as a future Presidential contender for his party. In 2018, Polis became the first and thus far only openly gay Governor to be elected in American history. The father of two formally married his longtime partner in a traditional Jewish ceremony last year. Interestingly enough, the Governor uses his mother's maiden name of Polis as his own. Both of his parents use the name Schutz. I guess this might make it easier for his political donors to not "defund Polis."

While nobody could confuse Polis as a conservative, his record in Congress and as Governor has been a bit more moderate and business friendly on some issues, and that has raised suspicions from some on the left in his party. Last year, he made headlines over the issue of Covid regulations by being the first Democrat, to go along with many Republican Governors, in cancelling emergency measures related to the pandemic. While he continued to push vaccines and the concept of masking, he said the time had come to find a way to continue the business of the state and everyday life despite the continuance of the virus. As the pandemic has persisted, though mostly a dire problem just for the unvaccinated, this approach has become more common.

Polis faced no serious opposition for renomination, while Republicans went through the somewhat complicated state process of competing at the state conventions in order to garner enough support to move on to the June 28 primary. Not many well-known Republicans expressed interest in this race, with more having statewide ambitions eying the U.S. Senate primary as well. One very right-wing female Republican contender was eliminated at the convention and is now running as the nominee of the Constitution Party, which would make things harder for the Republican to win, if the race were to be close.

Ultimately, two Republicans advanced to the primary. Greg Lopez had been the mayor of suburban Parker and also headed the state's Small Business Administration. He had also previously been an unsuccessful in seeking his party's nomination for U.S. Senate and for Governor. Parker ran a very MAGA like campaign but without much resources or institutional support. He had to explain a 1993 arrest for assaulting his pregnant wife. He pointed out that his pregnant wife was also arrested at the time for assault on him and that only Jesus was perfect. Nonetheless, at the April convention, dominated by party activists, he narrowly won the party's endorsement, earning him the first line on the primary ballot.

Establishment Republicans were a bit more enthused when the only statewide elected official in the party entered the race, although it was in the relatively low-profile role as a University of Colorado Regent. Heidi Ganahl pointed to her biography which included becoming a widow while still in her 20s, when her first husband was killed in a plane crash. She later founded Camp Bow Wow which has grown to be a nationwide franchise of dog day care centers. This allowed her to be able to run ads featuring herself with canines.More recently, she became involved in running non-profit enterprises in Colorado.

Despite her advantaged, Ganahl was said to struggle a bit out of the gate as a candidate for Governor. She struggled to explain just how deeply she supported Donald Trump and with an eye towards the primary refused to say whether or not the 2020 Presidential election results were legitimate. Had Trump endorsed Lopez, it might have been bad news for Ganahl, although the Colorado Republican primary results have thus far been some of the more "independent of Trump" ones thus far this cycle. Still her 54-46 victory over Lopez was probably closer than it should have been.

Gubernatorial nominees announce their Lt. Governor running-mates after the primaries in Colorado, although it was known that Polis would once again be sharing a ticket with Lt. Governor Dianne Primavera. During a GOP debate, Lopez said he would only consider a fellow devout Christian to be his Lt. Governor. Ganahl said she would have no religious test. After she won the primary, she stated that she had made her pick for the number two slot and would announce it on July 7. She previewed that her pick was an Hispanic male who was a "leader in rural Colorado." This narrowed down the list to several possibilities and one in particular seemed the most realistic. A website had reported the name of the pick but the Ganahl campaign denied the report. Eventually July 7 came and went and it appeared that Las Animas County Commissioner Felix Lopez had changed his mind about running with Ganahl. Apparently, a similar thing had  happened to the last Republican Gubernatorial nominee in Colorado as well.

On July 18, Ganahl did roll out her running-mate but instead of it being an Hispanic man from rural Colorado, it was Danny Moore, an African-American man from the Denver area. The businessman and Navy veteran had been removed as the Chairman of the state's Independent Redistricting Commission after questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 Presidential election.

On paper, Ganahl should be a credible challenger to Polis's job approval ratings are slightly above 50 percent but not at the level where his reelection is a foregone conclusion, especially during a midterm election that could produce strong Republican turnout nationwide. The Republican nominee has struggled a bit on a bigger political platform. Thus far, it appears that some Republicans still have doubts about her, even as she has positioned herself closer to Trumpism that might be advised in a state where the former President lost by 13 points. It would be a major upset if this race winds up being very close on Election Day.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

3 D (2 Likely. 1 Leans) , 3 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

9 D (6 Holdovers,  2 Likely, 1 Leans),  11 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely)