Connecticut Governor- Race of the Day

88 Days Until Election Day

Connecticut Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

After having won three straight Gubernatorial landslides between 1998 and 2006, Republicans in Connecticut have been frustrated by a three cycle losing streak in which the races for Governor were decided by very narrow margins. It seems like every one of those Election Nights has had the GOP candidate in the lead late into the night, only to have people wake up to the Democrat having moved ahead, after large urban areas report. This sort of thing was particularly upsetting to a certain former President in regards to results in other states, but of course, the votes have to count, and the time they come to be reported, at least has to be anticipated.

This past Tuesday did not see a primary in Connecticut, as the nominees have been settled for some time, and it will be a rematch of the 2018 election in the affluent state in which wealthy businessman Ned Lamont, a Democrat, defeated wealthy businessman Bob Stefanowski, a Republican, by a 49-46 margin.

Lamont won the Governorship in his third high profile attempt for statewide office. In 2006, with the backing of liberals from across the country, he defeated incumbent Joe Lieberman in a Democrat U.S. Senate primary. Then, Lieberman was able to run as an Independent in a general election and won another term. In 2010, Lamont lost a primary for Governor. When the incumbent who defeated him was term limited in 2018, Lamont ran again and took the nomination.

While a pretty heavily Democrat state in recent years, Connecticut had grown wary of the Administration of Governor Dannel Malloy on issues such as taxes, and Republicans thought that they could have a chance to win an open office. The national environment in the midterm of Donald Trump likely hurt the GOP to an extent where it was a different result than might have been the case in 2010 or 2014, when Malloy had eked out wins. A former Republican, running as an Independent, also took four percent of the vote, which was more than the margin in which Lamont defeated Stefanowski.

In Connecticut, candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor are voted on at a convention in the Spring and then if they receive enough support qualify for the primary. Typically, they form an alliance beforehand They then run together in the general election. Seeking a second term as Lt. Governor on the ticket with Lamont, with both being unopposed within the party is Susan Bysiewicz. She first won statewide office in 1998 when she was elected Secretary of State. Her political career then took some hits in 2010, when she first ran for Governor, then switched to run for Attorney General, and then was ruled ineligible because she did not have the requisite legal experience. After losing a 2012 U.S. Senate primary, Bysiewicz ran again for Governor in 2018, but then dropped out to form a ticket with Lamont. One can be pretty sure she will probably attempt to run for Governor again in four years.

Stefanowski defeated an underdog contender at the GOP convention after the field had basically been cleared for him. In 2018, he had to win a crowded and contested primary. One candidate who stepped aside this year was Themis Klardies, the former State House Minority Leader (and one time WWE ring girl), who switched her sites from Governor to U.S. Senate. She had been expected to win that nomination, but lost on Tuesday to a candidate backed by Donald Trump. More about that tomorrow.

In 2018, Stefanowski ran with a male State Senator, who had defeated two female opponents in the Republican primary. This year there was no primary, and the GOP ticket is rounded out with State Representative Laura Devlin.

Polling done thus far show Lamont is at least a slight favorite to beat Stefanowski again. There are some national factors related to a midterm that could favor the Republican candidate, as well as the fact that the now deceased Independent "spoiler" is not a factor. However, incumbency can work to Lamont's advantage. While Stefanowski is not seen as a staunch right-wing candidate, Democrats will try to use wedge issues like guns and abortion against him. It is worth noting that the runner-up in the 2018 Republican Gubernatorial primary, and before that a former GOP Lt. Governor nominee, was appointed to a state post by Lamont and is now supporting the Governor for reelection.

Lamont had played coy for several months as to if he even intended to seek a second term, but with politics as polarized and regional than ever between Blue States and Red States, is favored to win a second term, and could expand his margin from the last time by several points. Stefanowski is a credible candidate, but it is going to be hard for any Republican non-incumbent to win in New England these days.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

4 D (2 Likely. 2 Leans) , 3 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

10 D (6 Holdovers,  2 Likely, 2 Leans),  11 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely)