Florida U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 85 Days Until Election Day

Florida U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

 

Magazine covers once proclaimed Senator Marco Rubio to be the "Republican Savior." That did not work out as expected for Florida's now senior Senator. His second term has been far less high profile than his first. In fact, he did not want to run for a second term at all, but gave into political reality and did so. Now, Rubio is seeking a third term, and is favored to win, although he might have to resign himself than his future lay as one of 100 Senators and not as President.

The son of Cuban immigrants (if not technically refugees from the Castro regime), Rubio had a working class upbringing and a quick rise to power in Florida politics. As a City Commissioner in his 20s, he first came to the attention of then Florida Governor Jeb Bush who helped him win a special election to the Florida House in 1999. Strict term limits leads to frequent change in legislative leadership and it was Rubio's turn to be Speaker of the House during 2007 and 2008, after having held other leadership positions. In the role as Speaker, he sometimes clashed with Florida's then Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who was not considered as conservative as Rubio. 

After the Speakership, Rubio left office in Tallahassee, but clearly still had political ambitions. Republican leaders recruited Crist to run for an open U.S. Senate seat, and Rubio, with the encouragement of Jeb Bush, entered the primary against him. Initially, a severe underdog to the much better known Governor, Rubio appealed to the Tea Party movement, and they tried to tie Crist to President Barack Obama, whom they said the Governor was too friendly with. As Rubio moved ahead in the polls, Crist announced he would instead run as an Independent. As talked about in yesterday's discussion of Crist's second attempt to win back the Governorship as a Democrat, his Independent candidacy still fell well short of Rubio's margin, in a three way contest.

From Day 1, Rubio was considered someone to watch on Capitol Hill. Despite his original image as a staunch conservative, the Senator attempted to work with Democrats and like-minded Republicans on comprehensive immigration reform. This annoyed many hardliners on the issue. Others were will very enthusiastic about Rubio's future, given his Hispanic background and strong oratorical skills. He was talked about as a potential running-mate for Mitt Romney in 2012, though he was likely not that seriously considered given some past issues related to his personal finance. Rubio was given a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, introducing Romney, but much of the media coverage that night focused on Clint Eastwood speaking to an empty chair.

The Senator had another prime time opportunity when he was chosen to give the GOP response to Obama's 2013 State of the Union Address, but that was most remembered for a somewhat frantic drink of water that he took with cameras rolling. As widely anticipated, Rubio entered the 2016 Republican Presidential sweepstakes, and high name recognition among party activists, put him towards the front in some early national polls. Several publications ran profiles in which he was portrayed as the GOP's best hope to reclaim the Presidency.

 

What Rubio might not have been expecting is that his political mentor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of past Republican Presidents, was also running for the office. The two men were neighbors in Miami and shared a donor base and were very close on many issues. Most in Florida originally sided with Bush, the former Governor, but nationally, the conservative grassroots were very leery of Bush, especially on issues like illegal immigration, and expressed a desire for a "fresh face" over "another Bush." The interplay between Bush and Rubio on the debate stage was at times awkwardly combative. Both though had to deal with other candidates who were doing even better among the conservative base, such as Ted Cruz and surprisingly Donald Trump.

Rubio had a strong showing third place showing in Iowa, but then flamed out in New Hampshire, after an especially bad debate, and finished fifth, behind Bush. South Carolina would be Bush's last stand and interestingly enough the campaign and his financially formidable SuperPAC avoided going too negative on Rubio. While Trump won South Carolina easily, Rubio finished second. Bush dropped out of the race and it looked like Rubio would be the best hope of mainstream Republicans to stop candidates feared unelectable and even undesirable such as Cruz and Trump. John Kasich, had struggled in the race too up to this point, but remained in the field, as he and Rubio cancelled each other out in some ways.

It was clear that Rubio would need to beat Trump in his home state of Florida to have any chance of becoming the Presidential nominee. Trump blistered Rubio though as "Little Marco", calling him a "RINO" on illegal immigration and making much of the 2013 water incident. The Senator took the bait, getting very personal with Trump as well and bringing up the size of his.. hands. Talk radio hosts, such as Rush Limbaugh, who had been railing for months against Jeb Bush, then turned their ire on Rubio, once Bush was out of the race. In the end, the Florida primary was not that close, Trump won and Rubio was out of the race. The Florida Senator endorsed Trump, although it was clear he was not happy to do so.

For months, Rubio insisted that he would not be seeking reelection to the Senate in Florida regardless of what happened in his bid for the GOP Presidential nomination. He was said to be very bored as a Senator and felt it would be preferable to be outside of government altogether than be in the sometimes slow-placed legislative body. Republicans started to fear though that they could lose his Senate seat in November and tried to get Rubio to run for reelection. 

In June, Rubio referenced the recent mass shooting in Orlando as his rationale to seek another term in the Senate. Most of the other GOP candidates then dropped out in deference to the incumbent, but with establishment support, Rubio easily beat a Trumpist primary opponent.and then took the general election by eight points.

Returning to Washington, Rubio found himself serving under a Republican President for the first time. While he would at times offer mild criticism of Trump, especially on foreign policy matters, Rubio became far more of a Trump ally and defender. Perhaps mindful of the popularity of Trump among Republicans nationally, and in Florida in particular, Rubio has only moved closer to Trump in the years since. These days, even after Trump was defeated, the Senator is one of Trump's most vocal defenders and frequently attacks the left on Twitter in a snarky manner. He has become far less of the Rubio that first came to national prominence and once ran for President as an inspirational figure who hoped to unite the country and much more like Trump himself.

Running for a third term was apparently an easy decision this time for Rubio. The GOP in the state has been on an upswing and Democrats knew it would be very hard to beat him. While Rubio probably has not completely given up on the idea of being President one day, the reality is there are a lot of Florida Republicans, including the current Governor, the former Governor Rick Scott, who is now Rubio's Senate colleague, and Trump himself, who all would easily outpoll him in Florida. So, he might have to settle for being a Senator for now.

Democrats will have a four person primary field a week from tomorrow, but the winner is expected to easily be Congresswoman Val Demings. First elected to Congress in 2016, she is now making her first statewide run at age 65. Demings' background is in law enforcement and she spent many years with the Orlando Police, rising to become Chief. Her husband Jerry Demings, himself a former Orlando Police Chief, was elected Sheriff of Orange County and now serves as the Mayor of the county.

The Congresswoman got some national attention when she was one of the House Impeachment Managers for Trump's first Impeachment Trial. When Joe Biden made it clear he would likely pick an African-American woman to be his Vice Presidential running-mate, many thought Demings made a lot of sense. Some on the far left might have taken umbrage at the cop backgrounds of Demings and her husband, but that might have been a good idea for a national party who was suffering under the weight of "Defund the Police" chants broadcast nightly during the summer of 2020. In hindsight, Demings' presence on the ticket might not have been quite enough to tip Florida to Biden but could have helped the party change a narrative a bit nationally Had she been picked, she almost certainly would be Vice President today.

In 2021, Demings became the first major Democrat to step up to challenge Rubio, and her willingness to do so excited many in the party. However, like most House Democrats under Speaker Nancy Pelosi, especially those in heavily Democrat districts, her voting record is pretty liberal. This has helped her avoid any major primary opposition in Florida as she seeks a Senate seat but it will probably make it harder to dislodge an incumbent in a federal race. In some other states, that are considered more "purple" than Florida is now, she would look like a stronger candidate. It might also be true that the best option for her and the party might have been if she were to represent the party in the election for Governor, instead of the anticipated nominee Charlie Crist.

As it turns out, I think this Senate election will wind up a little less close than the one for Governor. Republicans are favored in both though. For most of 2021 and into July, Rubio has led Demings in the polls. Two more recent polls, sponsored by Democrats have shown a dead heat between the two candidates. Demings's backers say that wedge issues like abortion and guns are starting to work in their favor, while Rubio and his backers will insist that voters are still mostly concerned with inflation and the economy. At this point, I am skeptical that Rubio is in true danger. Republicans have shown they know how to seal the deal in Florida in winning big races but it will be worth watching to see if future polling does show a changing situation. If nothing else though, it will be tougher for Republicans to hang the "defund the police" tag on Demings.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

4 D (2 Safe, 2 Leans), 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

40 D (36 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Leans) 33 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely, 1 Leans)