Florida Governor- Race of the Day

86 Days Until Election Day

Florida Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Four years ago, Republican Ron DeSantis went into Election Day, down in most polls, and according to most pundits, the probable loser in the highly watched race for Governor of Florida. Now, as the general election for another term approaches, many pundits can make a plausible case that DeSantis is in a good position to become the next President of the United States.

This will once again be a high profile race, as all statewide contests in Florida are, and there are probably aspects of this race worth mentioning that I will neglect to cover. By all indications, the incumbent is favored, but I will be surprised if he wins in a blowout. After all, Florida has had three consecutive Gubernatorial elections that have been decided by just one point, with the winner not quiet hitting 50 percent outright. The most recent U.S. Senate election in Florida was basically a 50-50 result and the 2016 Presidential election had a final spread of 49-48 in the Sunshine State.

The common denominator though is that Republicans have won all of those races. When Donald Trump carried the state over Joe Biden by a 51-48 margin, it felt like a relative blowout and ushered in all sorts of discussion as to how Florida is now a solid red state. Some of those declarations are premature, but there is no doubt that Florida has become a good deal more Republican than it was a decade ago and that is a long-term problem for Democrats. It even looks like Florida might be a tougher nut to crack for Democrats than Georgia these days.

Some of the factors include the reality that the "old" southern part of the state is only seeing white voters become more Republican. The once solidly Democrat state became more Republican a few decades ago as conservative transplants from the North relocated. That seems to be happening again, as Republican voters, from the Midwest or Northeast, many of whom escaping high tax blue states for warmer climates, are bringing their voting habits with them. Then there is the issue of Florida's many Hispanic voters. In the '90s, there were signs that the once heavily Cuban-American GOP voting bloc in South Florida was moving towards Democrats. Now, it has moved back heavily to Republicans, and other Hispanic voters, from different backgrounds than the Cubans are also now moving towards the GOP. This was one of the more unexpected results from the 2020 election and could at least partially be attributed to a backlash against Democrats for moving too far to the left or embracing candidates who call themselves socialists. After all, many of these voters have fled or are from families that escaped socialist dictatorships.

It should also probably be pointed out that the success of the Republican Party of Florida in winning these close races, and other elections going back many cycles, has been the extent of which the party apparatus has pushed and worked on their absentee vote by mail push. During the 2020 campaign, Trump had called the practice "corrupt" and urged his voters to show up on Election Day only in order to make sure their votes counted. Some states saw Republicans follow that lead, and it likely cost Trump and possibly other Republicans, some electoral wins. That was not the case in Florida, as Republicans continued to vote by mail in significant numbers.

Turning 44 next month, Ron DeSantis is still the nation's youngest Governor. Much more is likely to be written in the near future about his life and political background. Born in Florida to a middle class family, the young DeSantis grew up playing baseball and saw his team make the Little League World Series. Later, he would go on to captain the baseball team at Yale, just like George H.W. Bush once did.

He has been described as always being intelligent, hard-working and driven, but also somewhat aloof and uncomfortable with small talk and eye contact. The latter are not traits typically associated with successful politicians but remind me somewhat of Richard Nixon.

While Nixon held a lifelong distrust of the Ivy League, DeSantis went to Yale and then graduated from Harvard Law School. He then enlisted in the U.S. Navy and became part of the JAG Corps. He was deployed to Iraq and received several decorations for his military service. The Governor remains a member of the U.S. Navy Reserve.

DeSantis used his impressive biography in 2012 to win a crowded Republican primary for a Congressional seat in a district that heavily favored the party. On Capitol Hill, he helped found the very conservative Freedom Caucus but was not seen as any sort of political bomb thrower. He had gotten into the race for U.S. Senate in 2016, but when the incumbent got back into the race, after a failed Presidential bid, DeSantis sought reelection to the House and set his focus on the 2018 Gubernatorial election.

Most of the Republican Party establishment was behind another young politician, who held statewide office, and DeSantis was considered an underdog. He had started though embracing Donald Trump politically in what appeared to be a public courting of the then President for an endorsement. Previously, DeSantis was not seen as a natural Trump ally. The tactic paid off though, as Trump gave a strong endorsement to the candidate and the voters followed suit, nominating DeSantis in a rout.

Many in Florida and nationwide feared the new GOP was nominee was too conservative and too tied to Trump to win a midterm election in a purple state like Florida. At the same time though, a crowded Democrat primary for Governor was won by a candidate supported by Bernie Sanders, who had easily been the most liberal candidate in their field. So, both parties had concerns they nominated the one candidate who might be able to lose in November As it turned out, this probably was the case for Democrats.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, an African-American who was the same age as DeSantis became a national figure during the general election. He led in most polls all the way up to the election and had some viral moments from debates in which he accused DeSantis of flirting with racism. There were questions though about Gillum's ethics in office and being considered too far to the left for some voters who had traditionally supported Democrats in the state. The strategy of the DeSantis campaign (along with perhaps a bigger surprise victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate campaign over an incumbent) paid off with a close victory. Many thought Gillum would remain on the scene as a rival to DeSantis, but the defeated Democrat has had nothing but trouble since. The married Gillum was intoxicated and present when a male escort had a drug overdose. He would enter rehab and come out as bisexual, but Gillum is now currently under federal indictment for charges related to laundering money raised during his Gubernatorial campaign.

DeSantis, the father of three young children, is married to a former television news anchor who was diagnosed with breast cancer as First Lady. In 2022, it was announced that Casey DeSantis is cancer free.

Early on in his tenure as Governor, DeSantis was widely praised for transparency and working in a cooperative way with the other party, (at least in regards to the contentious tenure of his Republican predecessor, now U.S. Senator Rick Scott, who has not been close with DeSantis.) In this regard, DeSantis was seen as a very different kind of executive than Trump.

Around the time the Covid pandemic hit though, DeSantis started to take a different tact and once again tied himself closely to Trump. In the years since, DeSantis and his team have taken many steps to put him on the national stage. The Governor has basically gone out of his way to hit every ideological erogenous zone of the MAGA base, on issue such as Covid shutdowns, where he opened the state far earlier than most Governors and was derided as "DeathSantis" by some. In retrospect, it appears that Florida did no worse during Covid than other big states such as New York. The Governor has refused to publicly admit (unlike Trump) that he received a booster dose of the vaccine, but most believe he has. DeSantis has been far more open in using Dr. Anthony Fauci as a political foil and fundraising tool.

Even more recently, he has gone out of his way to enter into the cultural fray on gay issues and has picked a fight with the Disney Corporation, which has a huge presence with Florida over their "liberal wokeness." This month DeSantis suspended the elected State Attorney from Tampa, over the Democrat saying he would not enforce any theoretical laws passed in Florida that might threaten abortion or transgender rights. A legal fight looms over that action, but DeSantis seems to relish the battle. His fans say he is standing up for freedom and has made Florida the best place in America to live, while his critics say he has become a dangerous authoritarian. As for my personal views, I think they fall somewhat in the middle, but I am not a fan of what DeSantis is representing for the Republican Party. I think he is a political calculator above all else. On the positive side though, at least he is not Donald Trump. The bottom line to all of this is that polls show him as easily being the runner up in 2024 Republican Presidential polls to Trump, and the he leads any that Trump is not included in, solidly so even over former Vice President Mike Pence.

 

Before the 2024 Presidential cycle begins though, and DeSantis, who will certainly run if Trump does not and could possibly run if Trump does (which is said to greatly annoy the now Florida voter), the Governor has to win another term. He definitely will have more than enough money to that end, as he and Lt. Governor Jeannette Nunez, herself a former harsh Trump critic from within he party, turned strong supporter, seek another term.While DeSantis relied on Trump's endorsement to become Governor in 2018, he has said he is not in need of it in this run.

 

On August 23, Democrats will pick a candidate two oppose DeSantis. Two major candidates remain, and all indications are that Congressman Charlie Crist will defeat State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried to once again became his (current) party's nominee for Governor. Crist who has a lengthy political biography is simply more well known statewide than Fried, despite the fact that she is the only Democrat to currently hold statewide office, which seems to say something for her political skills. However, Fried is seen as running a more left-leaning campaign for Governor. My sense though is that Fried might possibly be a tougher opponent for DeSantis than Crist at this point. In theory, it might make sense for both Democrats to unite as a ticket after the primary if Crist wins, but Crist would probably be unlikely to take someone who is currently being so critical of him. For a time, State Senator Annette Taddeo, picked by Crist to be his 2014 running mate, was also running for Governor, but she switched instead to a Congressional race and endorsed Crist.

Crist's political past is one of the more interesting examples of tenacity or perhaps blind ambition, according to some. He has been seeking political advancement since the age of 30, when the one time college football quarterback lost a Republican State Senate primary. Six years later, Crist was successful as a Republican in joining the State Senator and six years after that was the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate but lost the 1998 election in a landslide to the incumbent.

The statewide ambition of Crist was realized though two years later when the Republican won the 2000 election for State Education Commissioner and just two years later was elected Attorney General. By 2006, Crist was the GOP frontrunner for Governor and considered a rising star in the party. While some in Florida said he was not sufficiently conservative, he lined up with the national party on most issues. Crist took the Governorship in 2006 by a solid margin. This was the last time he won statewide office, and he has only done so as a Republican.

During four years ago Governor, Crist polled fairly well with the voters but had ruffled some feathers in among state and national Republicans. Still, he was heavily recruited to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, and surprised some by doing so instead of seeking a second term to which he would have been favored. Critics of Crist, including his Republican predecessor Jeb Bush worked behind the scenes to help the young former State House Speaker Marco Rubio enter the Republican primary in an attempt to deny Crist the nomination. The Tea Party movement, distrustful of Crist, lined up behind Rubio, who proved to be a strong candidate. Anticipating a primary defeat, the Governor said he would run instead as an Independent and began positioning himself more to the left for a three way general election against Rubio and an African-American Democrat nominee. Many Democrats strategically supported Crist, but he still lost to Rubio 49-30 and was then out of politics.

In 2012, Crist attended the Democrat's national convention in support of Barack Obama. Eventually, he formally joined the party and launched a bid to reclaim the Governorship in 2014 as a Democrat. By this point, the politician who not long ago proclaimed himself to very comfortably be a Republican, was sounding like just about every other Democrat in the country on major issues, having switched his position on several matters. While some Democrats were leery, they viewed him as the most electable option to deny then Republican Governor Rick Scott of a second term. Both contrasted their time as Governor but the tide for Republicans was enough to give the very wealthy incumbent Scott a one point win.

 

Crist had now had the distinction of losing statewide campaigns as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat, but not wanting to be done with politics, ran for Congress in 2016 against a Republican recently elected in a special election, until the district was redrawn to favor Democrats. Crist won by a 52-48 margin in what was probably a closer result than expected. His 2018 reelection was uneventful, but in 2020 wound up facing a surprisingly competitive challenge from a Latina opponent.

 

In Congress, Crist has voted in line with Democrats on every major issue and it is hard to imagine that many in the party once disliked him so much when he was a Republican Gubernatorial candidate and Governor. They relied on unsubstantiated rumors to call the now twice divorced Crist a hypocritical closeted gay man, but of course no longer mention that. Crist has not stated anything new about his personal life but has a solidly pro LGBT voting record. If it were true that he was gay, it would likely be politically advantageous these days for him to say so as a Democrat.

Republicans re-drew the Congressional maps in a way that threatened Crist's district, so he is once again running for Governor this year. At the age of 66 though, and with so many losing campaigns behind him, it is hard to see how this would not be his last chance at a big victory. According to the polls, he remains the favorite over Nikki Fried, a much younger Jewish woman from Miami, who somehow won statewide election to be in charge of the state's agriculture industry. In theory, that should probably be the toughest statewide office for a Democrat to win in Florida, but she did so, partially due to her support of medical marijuana. While unlike her opponent, Fried had never run for office as a Republican, she had donated in the past to a couple of them.

A general election race between DeSantis and Crist currently has the conventional wisdom, backed up by some polling that the incumbent Republican is a clear favorite over the Democrat retread candidate. It will be near impossible for anyone to be able to compete with DeSantis over the airwaves in this race, considering how huge his campaign back account is. Democrats find some polls they like showing that the controversial DeSantis has "gone too far" and is very vulnerable. If that were to be true, DeSantis and his aggressive seeking of battles would have nobody to blame but himself. Notably, the Democrat Governor of California, currently seeking reelection, is attacking DeSantis on Florida airwaves recently, but that is more about 2024 than anything else.

As for this race, I think DeSantis will win, maybe by a larger margin than any Republican has in the biggest Florida races over the last decade, but that it will get closer and more competitive once the primaries are held. A five point DeSantis win is probably in the ballpark of what could happen but many on the right are currently expecting a much larger victory.

Some in the GOP are looking to DeSantis, either as the "next great MAGA hope", and as someone who has the same appeal of Trump but without his personal and political baggage. Even some in the NeverTrump camp appear almost resigned to DeSantis being the only possible non-Trump option for the Presidency. Of course, Trump die-hards think the Governor is young enough to wait his turn, or perhaps should be Trump's Vice President. That would require one them (almost certainly Trump since DeSantis is the Governor) to change his voter registration to another state though. Not surprisingly, Trump himself is said to be very resentful over the popularity that DeSantis has gotten among the base and is upset that DeSantis will not declare now that he will not challenge Trump. People in Trump's orbit such as Roger Stone are openly speaking against DeSantis to the former President.

In the wake of this past week's FBI "raid" on Mar-a-Lago in Florida, (which DeSantis insisted he had no prior knowledge of and that he like all other Trump acolyes is very upset over), the expectation is that Trump is now more likely to run for President than ever, perhaps as a way to try to thwart potential prosecution. An announcement of a Trump campaign before the midterms would be viewed as a gift by many Democrats. Some clearly want to run against Trump, thinking he would be easier for Biden (or someone else) to defeat again, rather than a much younger, and to some, smarter, candidate like DeSantis. Others on the left will claim that what they have seen recently from DeSantis make them fear him as President even more than another Trump term.

Time will tell though about how these latest Trump developments will affect DeSantis. Any conventional wisdom of this hurting his Presidential ambitions in the short-term, might wind up helping them in the long-term. Different political commenters have been busy declaring DeSantis both the real winner and real loser of the Mar-A-Lago saga.

Of course, DeSantis has to win another term first for anything related to his 2024 ambitions to matter. It looks like he will and Democrats should be asking themselves why they do not have a deeper bench in Florida to oppose him and why so many in the Sunshine State have darkened on the their party.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

4 D (2 Likely. 2 Leans) , 4 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Lean)

Total with predictions thus far:

10 D (6 Holdovers,  2 Likely, 2 Leans),  12 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Lean)