Connecticut U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

87 Days Until Election Day

Connecticut U.S.Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

It was always going to be an uphill battle to unseat the incumbent in heavily Democrat Connecticut, but the results of last Tuesday's Republican primary probably ended all premise that the race could be competitive.

Former President Donald Trump has always seemed to be particularly annoyed by Senator Richard Blumenthal, one of the more vocal critics of him in the Senate. The two men are the same age, and Blumenthal is married into a family that has long been rivals with the Trump family in the world of New York City real estate. Both also never served in Vietnam. Trump avoided service altogether, while Blumenthal, a Marine Corps Reservist who served stateside, falsely claimed to have served in Vietnam during his first Senate campaign in 2010. The candidate claimed he was only guilty of misspeaking but had to apologize to the voters. It was a bad look for Blumenthal to be sure, but the voters still picked him by a double digit margin. During his public and online fights with Blumenthal, Trump has made much of the story and has greatly exaggerated the extent of which Blumenthal had told "war stories."

 

For years, Blumenthal had been a top vote getter in Connecticut as Attorney General, but cautiously avoided running for Governor or the U.S. Senate despite hopes from many within the party to do so. Eventually he did run though, and is now seeking his third term. Due to his marriage, he is one of the wealthiest members of the Senate.

 

Connecticut Republicans held a state convention in May and three candidates advanced to the August primary. The official party endorsement though went to former State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, who switched to run for the Senate, after originally intending to seek the Governorship. Before the daughter of Greek immigrants entered politics and became the first woman to lead her party in the State House, she had worked as a model and bodybuilder, complete with a stint as a ring girl for World Wrestling Entertainment in the early '90s .She also apparently once dated pro wrestler Shawn Michaels. The WWE is based in Connecticut and the CEO of the company Linda McMahon, wife of Vince, was twice the state's GOP nominee for U.S. Senate, including having lost to Blumenthal in 2010.

Two other candidates also were competing for a more conservative share of the vote, so it was considered likely that Klarides, with the party's endorsement, would win the nomination. She stated though that she did not vote for Donald Trump in 2020 and that was apparently enough to cause Trump to issue a last minute endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy. The Trump endorsement candidate then defeated Klarides on Tuesday, 51-40. While Trump had lost the state in 2020 by 20 points, his voice still held sway in the party.

Levy was born in Cuba and came to America as a child with her refugee family after Castro came to power.  Her family also fled Europe some time earlier. Originally Leora Rosenberg, the Republican nominee, is like Blumenthal, Jewish. After a career on Wall Street, Levy became active in Connecticut Republican politics and currently serves on the Republican National Committee. Formerly, she was close to the Bush Family, which had its political roots in Connecticut, and supported Jeb Bush for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination. During that time, she had harsh personal world for Trump, but like many in the party, has since done a complete transformation to support him and is now seen as one of his staunchest backers. Trump nominated her to be Ambassador to Chile in 2019 but the U.S. Senate never took action to confirm her.

Spending large amounts of her own money on negative television ads against Klarides and the late endorsement by Trump definitely helped Levy pull off an upset primary win. Supporting Trump down the line, it is unlikely that Levy will take any steps to distance herself from the former President. Most recently, she compared the FBI search warrant carried out at  Mar-a-Lago as something that would happen in communist Cuba or China.

Against Klarides, this race would have still been "Likely Democrat" but the nomination of Levy only makes things safer for Blumenthal.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

4 D (2 Safe, 2 Leans), 3 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

40 D (36 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Leans) 32 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely)