Idaho Governor- Race of the Day

80 Days Until Election Day

Idaho Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

Idaho is thoroughly Republican and thus any drama over who will be Governor next year was determined in the May GOP primary. Had the losing candidate won however, there might be a lot more attention being paid to the general election.

Governor Brad Little is seeking a second term and is likely to be the first Gubernatorial candidate in Idaho to pass 60 percent in November since the 1998 election. First though, he was held to 53 percent in the primary this year. Four years earlier, Little, then the Lt. Governor narrowly won a primary over two major opponents.

Nobody sane would confuse Little with being any sort of liberal on either economic or social issues. Still, he clashed during his first term with Republican Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin. The two offices are elected separately in Idaho. While Little represents Idaho's GOP establishment, McGeachin has positioned herself as a strong supporter of Donald Trump. She has also been willing to appear at events in which anti-government activists were present and in one case, a conference hosted by a white supremacist.

 

The biggest conflict between the state's top two officeholders occurred in 2021. The two had not spoken in months and when Little left the state to attend a conference of Republican Governors, McGeachin took authority as acting Governor to rescind executive orders that Little had put in place regarding Covid restrictions. Little called the act "unlawful" and there were similar instances of McGeachin temporarily trying to undo actions by the Governor when he was traveling out of the state on official or political business.

 

It was not much of a surprise when McGeachin launched a primary run against Little in 2022. Her strong support of Donald Trump, led the former President to endorse her early in her campaign. He would not go out of his way though to refer to Brad Little as "Little Brad" as might have been expected however. This would be an endorsement that would go against Trump's record though as Little prevailed 53-32. Financial advisor Ed Humphreys also ran to Little's right and took 11 percent. The establishment choice for the now open position of Lt. Governor also won over a more MAGA opponent.

 

 Earlier in the contest. Ammon Bundy, a rancher, whose family has been involved in illegal occupations and standoffs with the federal government also was part of the Republican field and even won the endorsement of the infamous Roger Stone. Bundy decided to run as an Independent in the general election instead however. He denied rumors of a political affiliation with McGeachin for mutual support in a potential general election. Earlier in the spring, he served a few days in jail on a contempt charge related to one of his many arrests over the past several years.

The sacrificial lamb for Democrats in this election will be college instructor Stephen Heidt, who is lightly funded and focused, like many other candidates in his party, against proposed Republican efforts to outlaw abortion at the state level. Much of the party had preferred to nominate Shelby Rongstad, the Mayor of Sandpoint. There was a sense that he could even be competitive against the ultra-controversial McGeachin if she emerged as the winner of the Republican primary. However, Rongstad had been a registered Republican and could not file to run as a Democrat for Governor in time. This forced him to attempt to run in the primary as a write-in candidate but that is a difficult thing to do, and Heidt beat back write-in ballots with 79 percent.

Now, Democrats are stuck with a less electable candidate against an incumbent Governor, who beat back more ideological opponents, in what is still a very red state. Little will win a second term and will no longer have to worry about McGeachin being in Boise, if he leaves the state.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

5 D (3 Likely. 2 Leans) 

6 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

11 D (6 Holdovers,  3 Likely, 2 Leans), 

14  R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)