Hawai'i Governor- Race of the Day

82 Days Until Election Day

Hawai'i Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Politics in the Aloha State have a unique feel to them and are likely more provincial than any state in the country. Campaigns try to remain civil during political battle, but their is fierce competition, usually within the Democrats' primaries, as the state has for generation been dominated by the party.

Current Governor David Ige, a Democrat, is term-limited from seeking a third term. The only Asian-American Governor in the U.S., the then State Senator had seemingly come out of nowhere in 2014 to knock off an incumbent Democrat Governor in a primary by a larger than 2-1 margin. Neil Abercrombie, a white Democrat, had been around politics for decades, but had run afoul of the state's party establishment due to a U.S. Senate appointment and other matters related to his personality. The Old Guard rallied behind Ige who would go on to be elected Governor. His primary blowout win was even more impressive considering that Barack Obama, then the President, had endorsed Abercrombie, whom he is said to have known since childhood.

Ige has had some rocky moments as Governor, running afoul of some fellow Democrats himself and an embarrassing incident in 2018 when someone in his Administration was responsible for erroneously sending out an alert to Hawaiians saying that a missile was about to hit the state. It took a long time for a correction to be issues and this understandably caused a lot of panic. Still, Ige easily won reelection that year.

Hawai'i held its primaries this past Saturday. Candidates are nominated separately for Governor and Lt. Governor and then run together in November. The easy winner for Governor among Democrats was Josh Green, a physician, who has served as Lt. Governor during Ige's second term. There is often conflict in Hawai'i among politicians of Asian-American descent, most of whom were either born in the state or in Asia, and white candidates, who often were born elsewhere in the U.S. Green is among the latter, having moved to Hawai'i as an adult. Like current Democrat Senator Brian Schatz, who is  up for reelection this year, Green is Jewish. The same was the case for Linda Lingle, Hawai'is most recent Republican Governor. There had been a long line of Asian-American Democrat Governors in Hawai'i before Lingle was elected in 2002, and now it seems likely the state will have another white Governor.

 

In the primary, which Green took with 63 percent of the vote, his two major opponents were of Asian-American descent. Vicky Cayetano, a  businesswoman who married the then Governor of Hawai'i in 1997, served as First Lady until the end of 2002. It seemed a bit odd that she launched a campaign, spending lavishly from personal funds, for Governor after so many years away from the spotlight, but she took 21 percent of the vote. Freshman Congressman Kai Kahele, an airline pilot, who continued to fly and rarely showed up on Capitol Hill, decided he would much rather be Governor than do his job in Washington D.C. He took just 15 percent of the vote. The field had been shaken up in May when Kirk Caldwell, the recent former Mayor of Honolulu dropped out of the contest.

 

The primary among Democrats for Lt. Governor was closer and the winner was Sylvia Luke, a South Korean born State Representative. She won 36-28 over his closest competitor Ikaika Anderson, a former Honolulu City Council Chair. 

For a while it looked like Hawaiian Republicans would not field a credible contender. One candidate who got into the race early was B.J. Penn, a mixed white and Asian-American former UFC Champion. The mixed martial artist had led a fairly colorful life. Honolulu City Councilwoman Heidi Tsuneyoshi entered the race but failed to gain much traction. She would finish in fourth places with single digits.. A late entry was James "Duke" Aiona. A former Judge, he had served two terms as Lt. Governor alongside Linda Lingle. Then, he was the GOP nominee for Governor in 2010 and for a while was believed to have a chance to win against a white Democrat, but lost to Abercrombie 58-41. He tried again in 2014, as Democrat division included a major party figure running as an Independent, but Ige won 49-37, showing that the recent past embrace of a Republican Governor was now in the past. Now, Aiona is making a third bid for Governor, and is probably the most credible candidate his party can put up. The most moderate of the GOP field, he took the nomination with almost 50 percent while Penn was second with 26 percent,

Three candidates, none with any history of winning elected office, ran for the Republican Lt. Governor nomination. The winner with 54 percent was pastor Seaulu Tupa'i who took the contest 54-35 over realtor Rob Burns. There does not seem to be much information about Tuppa'i and it is unlikely he might have much to offer politically to the third Aiona Gubernatorial ticket, while Luke, as an Asian-American, can probably help Green, a caucasian, for the Democrats.

There does not appear to be any current polling on the new general election. Without a doubt, Democrats have a huge advantage, but it is probably a bit premature to consider this open race to be "Safe." After 12 years of a Democrat as Governor and pretty much one party rule down the line, some voters might be willing to give the other party a chance. The odds are strong though that Hawai'i will go Green while remaining Blue.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

5 D (3 Likely. 2 Leans) 

5 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

11 D (6 Holdovers,  3 Likely, 2 Leans), 

13  R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)