Hawai'i U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

81 Days Until Election Day

Hawai'i U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

If the Gubernatorial race in Hawai'i might wind up being on the outskirts of competitive, that will not be the case in the Senate contest.

Democrat Brian Schatz has been in the U.S. Senate almost a decade now and the controversy of his ascent has seemed to go away back home. When legendary Senator Daniel Inoyue passed away at the end of 2012, Governor Neil Abercrombie selected his Lt. Governor Brian Schatz to replace him. One of the rationales was that Schatz, then just 40, was young enough to stick around Capitol Hill for a long term and build up seniority. Inouye on his deathbed though had made it clear to the Governor that he wanted Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to replace him. Going against this request, roiled the Democrat establishment in the state and it was also a factor that Abercrombie, a white Governor had appointed a white Senator, after decades of Hawai'i having only Asian-American Senators.

Primary voters took out their displeasure with Abercrombie in the 2014 primary, defeating him in a landslide, but Schatz, who was running in a special election, had to contend with a challenge from Hanabusa. The Old Guard of the party opposed him and it looked like he might have a short stint in the Senate after all, but the incumbent did have the support of Barack Obama and national Democrats. After part of the primary was delayed due to a weather emergency, Schatz survived 49-48. Winning the general election in 2014 and his first full term in 2016 was a piece of cake. Running for his second full term this year, last Saturday saw Schatz improve his primary performance from 86 percent to 94 percent.

The incumbent will have a GOP opponent, but this race will be an afterthought pretty much everywhere. State Representative Bob McDermott is a white Republican who has run for Congress and briefly for Governor before. He won the 2022 primary by a 39-26 margin, over his closest opponent Timothy Dalhouse, an Army veteran.

McDermott is known as a socially conservative activist known for getting angry with Republican colleagues who he has felt were not properly supportive of him or Donald Trump. He also has a reputation for trying to oppose sex education curriculum in the state. In 2014, he gave a press conference in which he spoke graphically of sex acts. In this Senate campaign, he moved on to another matter by fighting against a particular Navy fuel facility in the state citing environmental concerns.

Schatz had very little to worry about in winning reelection in reliably blue Hawai'i. McDermott's past focus though on gay sex and fears of it being taught in schools might be ahead of its time though. It has become a large part of many Republican campaigns across the country in 2022.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

6 D (3 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

42 D (36 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

33 R (29 Holdover, 2 Safe. 1 Likely, 1 Leans)