Kansas Governor- Race of the Day

73 Days Until Election Day

Kansas Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

When it comes to federal statewide elections, Kansas Democrats seem thoroughly locked out of the U.S. Senate. Traditionally, the GOP wins the races for Governor too, but there have been some severe rifts withing the state party for decades now, and Democrats, women in particular, have won the Governorship on a handful of occasions. That was the case in 2018, when a controversial Republican nominee could not unify the party and cost them the Governorship.

As she seeks a second term, Governor Laura Kelly is in a position to potentially benefit again from Republican disunity. If not for an Independent candidate on the ballot, she would probably be an underdog this year. Kelly was a not widely known State Senator when she ran for Governor four years ago and as the only woman in the field, won the primary with about 52 percent of the vote.

Republicans had a more turbulent nomination process. Republican Sam Brownback had been Governor, but the former U.S. Senator and one-time Presidential candidate fell in popularity and was seen as too focused on social issues, as the economy of the state suffered. He barely survived a 2014 reelection, with many in his party abandoning him, and likely only survived because it was a strong GOP year. Brownback's problems at home continued in his second term and he accepted a nomination to become a U.S. Ambassador for International Religious Freedom. His confirmation process took months and left the incoming Governor, Jeff Colyer, twisting a bit as he served as Lt. Governor. Eventually, Colyer took the top post but had baggage from his association with Brownback. A crowded primary field emerged, and with the party divided, the fear was that Secretary of State Kris Koback, a controversial hard-right political figure would become the nominee and put the general election at risk. Fear of this helped Colyer mount a late game comeback, but Kobach won the nomination by just a few hundred votes, with he and the acting incumbent both taking about 41 percent.

Democrats were buoyed by this development as the fall contest became less about their candidate and her D party label and more about the perceived divisiveness of Kobach. Scores of Republicans, including a former Governor endorsed Kelly. A businessman, running as a centrist Independent also hurt the Republican nominee when he took nearly 7 percent. That was more than enough to cover the difference in the final result as Kelly beat Kobach 48-43, in a race that seemingly only Kobach could have lost. Four years later, Kobach recently won a multi-candidate Republican primary to become the nominee for Attorney General and could now potentially be a drag on the statewide ticket again, although he is at least not leading it.

Kelly as Governor has had a lot of fights with the Republican legislature and there is a perception that she has governed more liberally than she first campaigned for the job. The party is behind her though, especially since no other Democrat would have a chance of keeping the job. She took 94 percent of the vote in a primary earlier this month. In Kansas, candidates select their running-mate before the primary and run together as a ticket. The original Lt. Governor, elected with Kelly, was appointed by her to fill a vacancy as State Treasurer, as apparently, that is a more important job. She then selected David Toland to become the new Lt. Governor and the two are running together full a full term now. Lt. Governor Toland also continues to hold his original job in the Administration as Secretary of Commerce.

A wide field for the GOP nomination was considered but that did not pan out. Former short-term Governor Jeff Colyer, a physician, was attempting a comeback but dropped out to seek treatment for prostate cancer. In leaving the race, he endorsed Attorney General Derek Schmidt who was already running. Many prominent Kansas Republicans, such as the now late former Senator Bob Dole, had already endorsed the Attorney General. Schmidt, like Kelly, is not an overly exciting political figure. He has a strong conservative record as Attorney General, but seemed palatable to the conservative and moderate factions of the state GOP. For his running-mate, Schmidt selected Katie Sawyer, a 38 year old Congressional aide, whose family has a long history in farming. The ticket took 81 percent in the primary against that of a perennial candidate.

That is not the whole story though. State Senator Dennis Pyle left the Republican Party earlier this year to become an Independent and is now on the ballot for Governor. On the surface, considered the past divisions in Kansas, it might seem like Pyle would be running as a moderate alternative to the conservative Schmidt, but he is actually claiming to be the more conservative option and is running to Schmidt's right. Pyle is highly unlikely to touch double digits in the general election, but any amount of votes he gets is likely to come at the expense of Schmidt, and that could make all the difference.

On Primary Day this August, Kansas made national news as the state voted solidly for a pro-choice option on the statewide ballot, over a Pro-Life measure which would have limited abortion in the state. Democrats across the country were excited by this outcome, in the wake of the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and saying that abortion is going to be a highly motivating factor across the country in these midterms, even in a state like Kansas, considered a socially conservative bastion.

There is no way that Republicans should overlook those results. After all, the ultimately successful advocates of overturning Roe vs. Wade have said these decisions should be made at the state level, with the voters having the final say. That seems to be what happened in Kansas, and both sides are going to have to live with the outcome. Is it also a sign that the pro-choice Kelly now has an edge over the Pro-Life Schmidt? Perhaps, but nothing is usually that simple in Kansas. For one thing, the ballot question itself may have had wording that confused some voters. Also, it is easier for people to vote on a single issues, than it is to choose between two candidates, when other issues may be more important in their minds.

Kansas's race for Governor is likely to be among the most competitive of any statewide contest in the country this year. If not for Pyle running as a right-wing spoiler, I would be giving the slightest of edges at this point towards Republicans flipping this office. Considering the Pyle factor though on the right, and continued civil war among Kansas Republicans, with has a chunk of moderates once again supporting Kelly, the picture is more muddled, and the slightest of advantages, for now at least, would have to go to the incumbent.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

7 D (4 Likely. 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

13 D (6 Holdovers, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)