Missouri U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

63 Days Until Election Day

Missouri U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Once a reliable electoral bellwether, the Show Me State has shown a stark movement towards the GOP over the past decade plus. Democrats typically do not have illusions that they can carry the state but circumstances emerged this year that gave them hope in a Senate race, at least for a time being. The primary result on August 2 for Republicans though allowed state and national party figures to breathe a sign of relief. It may be the one and only big break Senate Republicans and those who want to make them a majority may get this cycle.

Senator Roy Blunt, a conservative Republican long associated with his party's establishment in both Houses on Capitol Hill is retiring after two terms in the upper chamber and while he is still relatively young enough to make a lot of money in the private sector. Six years ago, despite Missouri's red turn, Blunt had a tough reelection race against a young Afghan War veteran, who was serving as Secretary of State, as one of the Democrats who still held a statewide office. Blunt won by a close 49-46 margin, well below the amount Donald Trump won the state that year. Many Trump voters either found the populist Democrat an attractive option or skipped voting because Blunt was seen as too "swampy."

When the Senator announced his retirement intentions last year, it was seen as a given that the GOP would hold his seat, although it was likely that his successor would be a more ideological conservative, in the realm of Josh Hawley, who had knocked off a Democrat incumbent to take Missouri's other Senate seat in 2018.

There was one major concern though. Former Governor Eric Greitens was looking to make a political comeback and was selling himself as a MAGA conservative. A Rhodes Scholar, Navy SEAL, and decorated war veteran, Greitens had returned to Missouri and founded a non-profit organization devoted to helping veterans. Raised as Jewish and a Democrat, he first started looking to run for office as a member of that party.

In 2015, Greitens announced he was a Republican and would run for Governor the next year. His outsider status as a veteran and businessman helped him defeat three primary opponents who had long political resumes. In the same 2016 Presidential election which saw Trump cruise in Missouri, and Blunt lag behind, Greitens won the Governorship by six points. He defeated the state's Attorney General, a highly touted former Republican who became a Democrat, in a race many had anticipated could go either way. Suddenly, Greitens looked like someone to keep an eye on for future White House ambitions.

After a year in office in which he perused a conservative agenda, the Governor's political standing was rocked by a report that he had an extra-marital affair a few years earlier with his hairdresser and that she was accusing him of physical abuse and taking photographs of her in compromising situations to use as blackmail. Greitens admitted the affair and expressed regret but denied the other allegations. Not long after, the Governor was indicted on invasion of privacy chargers and a legal battle ensued in which the charges were dropped. In the meanwhile, the Republican led legislature, which never wanted Greitens to become Governor, opened their own investigation, as other questions also emerged regarding efforts to cover up the incident as well as campaign irregularities.. Missouri Republican leaders, including then Attorney General Josh Hawley, called on Greitens to resign or face impeachment. By the end of May, Greitens announced he would step down. As part of the agreement, he would not be charged for a crime in St. Louis County. Looking back at the whole situation, one has to look at the very different way Missouri Republicans dealt with Greitens as opposed to how Congressional Republicans made the decision to stick with Trump, no matter what. It might have a lot to do with how the party in Missouri had come to believe that Democrats were not a threat anymore.

Greitens, who remained bitter about the experience, mused with running as an Independent for the Senate, in a race featuring Hawley, the same year he resigned but did not do so. By the 2022 cycle, he was making a comeback and comparing his experience in office to what others had tried to do to Donald Trump. Several figures from Trumpworld, including Kimberly Guilfoyle signed on to Greitens' Republican Senate campaign. By this time, Greitens had gotten divorced from his second wife. Considering the affair, the split of that marriage may not be all that surprising, but the former First Lady of Missouri, a political scientist, accused her former husband in a child custody filing of having been physically abusive to their three year old son. Sheena Greitens said she photographed the injuries her younger son had received and that because of it, Eric Greitens had his access to firearms restricted. The former Governor said his wife had invented the allegations in order to prevent him from having custody over the children as she had accepted a job offer in Texas. He also accused Republican political operatives of conspiring to help her make the allegations.

All of these headlines were very bad for Greitens and his Republican opponents in the primary race and those supporting them called for him to drop out. The candidate though followed the Trump gameplan of denying that he had done anything wrong and attacking the accusers. The custody case remains ongoing.

The disgraced former Governor certainly did not have the GOP Senate field to himself during this time. It is apparently easy to get on the ballot and a whole bunch of candidates (in both parties) filed for the primary. All of the leading Republicans ran as staunch Trump backers. They included Eric Schmitt, the state's Attorney General, whom previously had been elected as State Treasurer. Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, a social conservative from the rural part of the state entered the race. While she won the endorsement of Senator Hawley, she was unable to persuade Donald Trump to follow suit. The month before the primary, he went out of his way to say he turned down her request and said she "did not have what it takes" to be a Senator. There is probably more to that backstory. Another Congressman, Billy Long, a portly former auctioneer, entered the race, with the apparent belief that Trump might back him, but that did not happen, and Long's campaign never gained traction. State Senate President Pro Tempore Dave Schatz entered the field but seemed to be barely noticed in the crowd. Finally, there was attorney Mark McCloskey, who was attempting to milk his political 15 minutes of fame. He and his wife were photographed during demonstrations in the summer of 2020 banishing guns near their expensive St. Louis home against what they said were Black Lives Matter activists intending to harm them. They plead guilty to weapons related misdemeanors, but many felt their prosecution was political and the Governor promptly pardoned them. The couple spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention. Both McCloskeys would have their law liceneses suspended.

Then, there were the Democrats. Some felt that Greitens could take the nomination on the other side, especially if he were formally endorsed by Trump, and then with all his baggage lose the general election. That seemed to be a valid expectation, although polls showed that even Greitens might have the edge, albeit a smaller one than the other Republican candidates, against a Democrat.

For a while, it looked like the Democrat frontrunner would be Lucas Kunce, who had some similarities to the party's Senate candidate who came close in 2016. While a law student, he had lost a race for the State House, but after that, joined the Marines, and spent years on active duty, including Iraq and Afghanistan, before going to work at the Pentagon. Kunce was running as an Elizabeth Warren styled populist though, railing against corporate interests. It seemed like he might be someone who would struggle to win crossover votes in a general election.

 

Many were surprised when Trudy Busch Valentine was a late entry into the field as a Democrat. A nurse and heir to the famed Anheuser Busch brewing family (she was born when her father was in his 60s), the candidate said she had been inspired to enter politics following the 2020 death of her son from an opioid overdose. She also pointed to the death of her husband from cancer years earlier and the childhood accident that killed her younger sister and inspired her to first become a nurse. Her name recognition through her father's family and ability to put up personal funds made her a credible candidate.

Kunce, who also being backed by Bernie Sanders, would not yield though. He and his allies painted Valentine as being insufficiently progressive and pointed to her participation in a 1977 Debutante Ball, and continued support for the event for decades after, which had a particular racist and anti-Semitic history in St. Louis. The candidate apologized for her past participation and said she was ignorant of the Ball's history, and its origins leading back to the KKK. There was another incident on the campaign trail in which Valentine was seen as not properly "woke" in answering a question related to transgender rights, that later had to be clarified. She held on to win the primary over Kunce 43-38, but was seen as having moved to the left in order to do so.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, insiders fretted over what a Greitens nomination could mean. The candidate put together an absolutely bizarre ad in which he and other armed men broke into a home saying it was open season on "RINOs" and the campaign had produced some sort of hunting license with no limit or expiration until the country was saved. This was done while the candidate was fighting a child custody case in which he was accused of being violent and unstable and the ad is now part of the evidence being presented. Plus, there were the past allegations of sexual related violence against his mistress. Greitens and his campaign attacked the criticism as ridiculous and proof that his detractors did not have a sense of humor. He also focused on attacking Schmitt of having engaged with China on economic matters while he was a State Senator. China became a key point in the Republican primary. Schmitt countered by saying he had attempted to sue China as Attorney General over Covid-19.

Through all of this, Donald Trump was said to be wanting to endorse Greitens for the Senate seat. National Republican figures reportedly had to work to get him not to do so. There continued to be speculation that might still endorse Greitents, even as all the bad publicity saw the candidate falling in the Republican polls. Others thought Trump would put his backing behind Schmitt. Right before the primary, Donald Trump issued a carefully worded "complete and total endorsement" of "Eric." Both Erics, Greitens and Schmitt claimed it was for them. Adding to the plot, a third Republican Eric, was also in the crowded field, and got the most publicity in the campaign he would have gotten by far. Many just shook their heads at Trump's attempt to be cute. To me, it seems like he really wanted to endorse Greitens but had become convinced that Schmitt would win the primary, and thus was covering his bases.

In the end, Schmitt won easily, 46-22 over Hartzler, and paid homage to Trump in declaring victory. Greitens lagged behind at 19 percent. Many in the Republican Party hope that the former Governor is not heard from politically again. Congressman Long can at least rest easy knowing he beat out McCloskey 5 percent to 3 percent.

Another twist in this race was that back when it looked like Greitens could win the nomination, John Wood, a Republican and former U.S. Attorney entered as an Independent. Wood had recently gotten some television time as a counsel for the Congressional January 6 Committee. He was being heavily backed by retired moderate Republican Senator John Danforth. Wood insisted he was a mainstream conservative who could win a three-way race and that he was not going to pretend to be to the left. Against Greitens and Kunce, the situation for Wood might have been different than the reality of a Schmitt vs. Valentine race. After the primary, Wood insisted he would stay in the contest, as both nominees were very flawed. Some polling data or fundraising prospectus might have changed that outlook though as Wood exited the race late last month and admitted that without Greitens in the picture, he had no realistic path.

Whatever support Wood might have received would probably have come from Schmitt, and thus this was good news for the Republican candidate. While those who do not like Trump might find it hard to vote for Schmitt, Missouri is now seen as a very conservative state. Valentine may be able to win some moderate votes, but it remains to be seen how she will continue to perform as a first time candidate. 

Without the ability run solely as the alternative to Eric Greitents, and instead facing a more run of the mill Trump Republican, the polls are showing that Valentine is behind. The GOP is having to deal with problematic and underperforming Senate nominees in several other states, but Missouri is now at least probably off the SOS list.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

8 D (5 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

11 R (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

44 D (36 Holdover, 5 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

40 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 3 Likely, 2 Leans)