Maryland U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

67 Days Until Election Day

Maryland U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

There is far less to say about the Senate election in Maryland than there was about the Gubernatorial election .

Democrat Chris Van Hollen is seeking a second term and could have ambitions to move up higher into his party's leadership team. That seemed to be the path he was on during his 14 years in the U.S. House, but when a rare open Senate seat came up, he took up the chance to run statewide. Van Hollen's first election to the House in 2002, after a dozen years in the state legislature, featured a primary victory over State Delegate Mark Shriver, a member of the Kennedy Family. In the general election, he defeated longtime moderate GOP Congresswoman Connie Morella, after Maryland Democrats made her district easier for someone in their party to win. Van Hollen won the 2016 Senate nomination by a solid margin over an African-American Congresswoman and then handily against a somewhat credible Republican opponent. The 63 year old Senator had a minor stroke a few months back, but has returned to his duties and it is not expected to be much of an issue for Maryland voters this year.

There is not much of a bench among Maryland Republicans and nobody in the party has won a Senate seat from the state since the liberal Charles Mathias, whom Van Hollen once worked for, was last reelected in 1980.

A couple GOP Governors have been upset winners in the years since though and current Governor Larry Hogan, who is term limited from seeking another four years, was considered the only Republican with any chance of giving Van Hollen a race. National party leaders tried to appeal to Hogan to get into the race, but he never seemed to take it seriously. Instead, the Governor appears to be planning to run for President in 2024. A political critic of Donald Trump, Hogan would not have been warmly received into the Senate contest by MAGA world. Considering the fact that the outgoing Governor saw his choice lose to a Trump loyalist in this year's Republican Gubernatorial primary, many think it would have been unlikely for Hogan to even win a primary in the state, with Trump coming out against him.

Nonetheless, there was a crowded field of nobodies running for the Senate as Republicans, who did not even have the political network of Delegate Dan Cox, now the candidate for Governor. Against a divided field, I do think Hogan could have won the Senate nomination if he wanted it. He just did not want it. As popular as the Governor has proven to be and as many crossover Democrat support that he has, a federal election is often very different than a state election. Van Hollen, who does not seem to have done much to rise the ire of the state, would have still been considered a favorite against Hogan. The Governor had nothing to gain by making this contest. Even if he won, he would have found it next to impossible to run for President right away.

That would have at least been a real race though, and could have been decided by single digits. Instead, Van Hollen is probably now looking to crack 70 percent of the vote against homebuilding contractor Chris Chaffee. The conservative candidate is considered somewhat of a gadfly and has run for office in Maryland several times before, including second place finishes in both the 2016 and 2018 Senate primaries. This was finally Chaffee's time to break through, perhaps because nobody had heard of his nine opponents in the 2022 field. In July, the Chaffee defeated nurse Lorie Friend, the second place finisher, 21-15, to win the nomination. In this current cycle, Chaffee appears to have trimmed his long hair somewhat but maintains his white mustache.

That is pretty much all I have on this one.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

8 D (5 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

10 R (6 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

44 D (36 Holdover, 5 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

39 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 2 Likely, 2 Leans)