Maine Governor- Race of the Day

69 Days Until Election Day

Maine Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

What is old is new again in Maine, as the most recent former Governor is attempting a political comeback against the woman who succeeded him. A major factor in the state's Gubernatorial general elections has been that at least three candidates typically get a lot of votes. Four years ago, took six percent and that was the low-water mark for the leading non-Democrat and non-Republican since 1982. This cycle, while an Independent will appear on the ballot, that candidate will likely fall short of that amount. While Maine has ranked choice voting for primaries and for federal general elections, it does not for state general elections. These factors could make things more difficult for former Republican Governor Paul LePage, considering his past electoral experience and luck.

LePage had a rough childhood and upbringing in Maine. A blue collar worker, he later a business and entered local politics. In 2010, he was the Mayor of Watertown when he won a crowded Republican primary (pre- ranked choice voting) for Governor. Though he was considered the most conservative candidate. he was thought to have a lot of support based on his personal appeal as a non-traditional politician. The Democrats also had a crowded field for the open office race and nominated the most liberal candidate. This left an opening for Eliot Cutler, an attorney who had worked for Democrats, but ran as a centrist Independent. The end result was that LePage was elected Governor with just 38 percent of the vote, while Cutler finished in second place with 36. The official nominee of the Democrats trailed with 19 percent.

As Governor for eight years, LePage proved to be controversial and was in many regards a prototype in the Republican Party for a Donald Trump. He fought with the Democrat controlled legislature and was known for controversial and off-color remarks. Civil rights groups called him racist when he suggested that minorities were responsible for crime in Maine and "should be shot." The Governor pointed out that he had an adopted black son. Although the relationship was not legally binding, the son of a family friend did live with the LePage family.

LePage was heavily targeted when he sought reelection in 2014. Democrats rallied around a Congressman who also had a blue-collar background and was known previously for some socially conservative views on issues such as abortion, although he had also recently come out as gay. Cutler was also running again as an Independent. LePage said he would continue to be himself and would either win or lose in a landslide. When it was clear that support for Cutler was nowhere near what it was four years earlier, but he could still tilt the election to the incumbent, the Independent candidate all but gave up on the race, although he refused to withdraw. He implored his supporters to "vote their conscience." Many pro-choice Democrats came home to support their nominee, but Cutler still received eight percent of the vote, more than enough to count for the difference of LePage's 48-44 win over the Democrat. This second election of LePage with a plurality of the vote ultimately led to the passing of ranked choice voting, which the Governor opposed. As mentioned though, support was not enough to make apply to Gubernatorial general elections. If there were any questions about Cutler trying to remain politically active on the Maine scene, they were ended this year when the former candidate was arrested on child pornography charges.

In 2018, LePage was ineligible to seek a third consecutive term. Democrats were worried that moderate GOP Senator Susan Collins might run for Governor and enacted a state law that would prohibit the Governor from appointing a replacement to the Senate. Both parties saw crowded fields, though the Republican nominee won with 52 percent making their opposition to ranked choice voting moot. Democrats did have to go through the process and the eventual winner was Attorney General Janet Mills. She had a long history in elective politics, although in Maine, state offices below Governor are appointed by the legislature. Mills won on the fourth round of ranked choice voting. She was in first place throughout but consolidated support among the backers of other more liberal candidates, who agreed she would be liberal enough.

The general election looked competitive, with the female State Treasurer, running as a centrist Independent, threatening to once again take votes away from the Democrat. Another Independent candidate dropped out in October and endorsed Mills.  The midterm year of 2018 proved to be better for Democrats nationally and in New England though compared to the two previous ones, and Mills won with 51 percent to 43 percent to the Republican and six percent for the Independent.

LePage signaled he did not want to be done with politics upon leaving office. He took to calling himself "Donald Trump before Donald Trump" and floated his wife as a potential candidate for U.S. Senate. As Maine's First Lady. Ann LePage took a job as a waitress to "help make ends meet." Both LePages also had weight loss surgery during his time in office and the former Governor is thinner than he once was.

While he could not seek a third consecutive term, LePage was eligible to run again in 2022 and is now facing Governor Mills in the general election. Nobody in either party stepped up to challenge them in a primary or was able to make it on the ballot, setting up this contest between a current Governor and the most recent former Governor. Mills, the sister of a formerly prominent Maine Republican, is seen as a relative moderate among some in her party, but has definitely governed more liberally than her predecessor leaving Maine voters with a clear choice.

Polls show that the contest should be competitive, but Mills has had a slight edge in polls. What might be new to Maine voters is the lack of a politically organized third or even fourth option. Whomever wins is almost certainly going to get a majority of the vote and without the split opposition factor to work in his favor this time, it will be tough for LePage to win his old job back.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

8 D (4 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

14 D (6 Holdovers, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)