Minnesota Governor- Race of the Day

64 Days Until Election Day

Minnesota Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Minnesota stands alone in not casting its Electoral Votes for a Republican in the last 50 years. Donald Trump did come within about a point and a half in 2016 but then lost by seven points four years later. Republicans have elected a few Governors during the past half-century, but recent political history shows them moving backwards. A seven point win in 2002 became a one point win for the incumbent in 2006. Democrats flipped the office by one point in 2010 and then won by five in 2014. In 2018, Democrat Congressman Tim Walz won the open Governorship by 12 points. One factor could be that Independent candidacies that attracted centrists (such as the one that allowed Jesse Ventura to win a three way race back in 1998) are no longer a major part of the Minnesota landscape and those voters have been moving more towards Democrats as Republicans have been nominating more conservative candidates.

This year, Walz is running for a second term and while the race should be competitive and might ultimately be so, he is favored to win The question will be whether he can move the needle past a 12 point victory. The Governor was much in the headlines during the summer of 2020 after the racially charged riots in the state after the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer. People had varied opinions as to how Walz and his Administration dealt with the aftermath and the controversy surrounding the "Defund the Police" movement had its genesis in Minnesota and that likely helped the GOP nationally in that year's election.

The DFL as Democrats are officially known in the state, easily picked Walz over a perennial gadfly candidate with 97 percent on August 9. Four years earlier, Walz, a military veteran and former High School football coach, was considered the most moderate of all the Democrats that sought the Governorship. The politics in the state includes a series of caucuses and party conventions in which an endorsement is given. At that point, several candidates drop out in deference of the endorsement process while others chose to fight on until the primary. Candidates also pick their runningmates for Lt. Governor early in the process, before the conventions, and then are officially chosen together in the primaries. As was the case four years ago, Walz is running with Peggy Flanagan. The current Lt. Governor brought balance to Walz's campaign via her age, liberal ideology, and being a Native American woman.

A long line of Republicans, believing the incumbent was vulnerable stepped up to run for Governor. All but one of the major party candidates agreed to abide by the result of the May convention and not run in the primary. That his historically been the case with the GOP, while the DFL has sometimes seen its endorsed candidate lose in a primary, which is how Walz was ultimately victorious in 2018.

It was clear the Minnesota Republican convention would be heavily influenced by conservative activists. Even before it met, State Senator Michelle Benson, the only female candidate, and considered possibly the strongest possible opponent for Walz dropped out. 

The party's endorsement was won on the 9th ballot with 65 percent by former State Senator Scott Jensen. A physician, who was once considered a moderate Republican, Jensen moved to the right during his Gubernatorial campaign and focused on his position that Walz had implemented measures there were too harsh during the Covid pandemic which harmed the state. He opposed vaccine mandates and was found to have some associations with anti-vaccine groups. The ticket of another leading candidate, State Senator Paul Gazelka, who had previously been Minority Leader left the race after the convention. Another candidate who then dropped out was Kendall Qualls, an African-American businessman and 2020 Congressional nominee. NBC's NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya had taken a job with his campaign after leaving her television gig. 

 

Former Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek, who did not participate in the endorsement process wound up not filing for the primary and an Independent candidate, planning to run as a moderate, also did not push forward with a run. Jensen made it official by taking 89 percent against little known minor candidates.

For his runningmate, Jensen had selected businessman Matt Birk, a former NFL player, whom I had apparently forgotten about or never really heard of. A Minnesota native who played his college ball at Harvard, Birk had played a decade for the Vikings, and then retired in 2013, after winning a Super Bowl with the Baltimore Ravens. Birk had been outspoken in sharing Jensen's positions on masks and vaccines. The ticket is very much playing up the football aspect, with logos for each nominee, and front- and back jerseys with Jensen's name in the colors of University of Minnesota, his alma mater, and Birk in the purple and gold of the Vikings.

Birk, who was once written about as being one of the "smartest" professional athletes, made news this summer when he compared those who support legalized abortion with those who also advocate for women to have careers. That is not exactly a smart political message. The candidate for Lt. Governor also doubled down on his opposition to rape exceptions for abortion saying "two wrongs don't make a right."

While Dr. Jensen is a credible candidate in some ways, it appears in retrospect, he and his ticket were chosen by Republicans specifically on the issue of Covid resistance on the right.There were likely multiple other candidates the GOP could have put up that might be more in the game for the general election. While opinions on masking and realizations that the hopes we were told to have about vaccines completely stopping the spread of the virus turned have maybe switched a bit over the months, it still seems like a stretch that there are enough voters bitter about government action and potential missteps over Covid to sway a statewide election.

Minnesota is traditionally seen as a liberal state and Democrats are going to be focusing heavily on a wedge issue like abortion. Jensen, unlike his runningmate, does support a rape exception, and wants to focus on issues such as crime in the Twin Cities, but cutting through the noise and negative ads might be a tough challenge. Some polls show a competitive race, but I am inclined to remember that there are frequently polls out of Minnesota showing Republican candidates doing better than they ultimately do on Election Day. 

All things considered, the Gubernatorial election in Minnesota may wind up being more competitive at the end than the one in Michigan, but it is hard to beat an incumbent Governor, especially one as reasonably bland as Walz.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

12 D (2 Safe, 6 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

  7 R  (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

18 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)