Massachusetts Governor- Race of the Day

66 Days Until Election Day

Massachusetts Governor

Status: Republican Open

2022 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

There are many similarities between the Gubernatorial contests in Maryland and Massachusetts, in which it looks like moderate Republicans will be replaced by liberal Democrats, because Republicans will have nominated candidates who are running as strict Donald Trump loyalists, in states where he has always been unpopular. A big difference though is that in the Bay State, the incumbent Governor was eligible to run this year, but decided not to.

All political observers know that Massachusetts is considered one of, if not the, bluest state in the country. However, since the term "Massachusetts liberal" was really termed in the 1988 Presidential election, the GOP has won six out of the last eight Gubernatorial elections, with candidates considered moderate, and less likely to raise taxes and be a rubber stamp for the Democrat legislature, than their opponents. Massachusetts politicians of both parties, have traditionally been very ambitious in terms of wanting to move up to other offices or the Presidency. None has been elected of course since John F. Kennedy in 1960, and the closest since was since former Republican Governor Mitt Romney was nominated 2012. He moved to the right while holding the Corner Office in Boston, and is now a Utah Senator, though hardly a favorite of conservatives anymore.

Charlie Baker was a healthcare executive who had served in the Administration of the Republican Governors who came before Romney. In 2010, he was nominated for Governor, but lost a three-way race 48-42. After that defeat, Baker took steps to moderate his image, especially as it related to women voters and in the strong GOP year of 2014, edged out Martha Coakley 48-47 to win the Governorship. Coakley, then the Attorney General, had lost the second big race she had been expected to win and once held a sizable lead, after having been defeated a few years earlier in a special U.S. Senate election.

Baker proved to be popular as Governor and the support of many Democrats and less so with Massachusetts conservatives. While he won reelection in 2018 with two thirds of the vote, it was noteworthy that a little known Republican primary opponent had held him to 64 percent. That was an even closer margin than the earlier Republican convention, which would have been expected to be even less friendly to a moderate.

Like Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan, Baker can claim he never cast a vote for Donald Trump. The two also supported the second impeachment of Trump after the events of January 6, 2001. This led to some in the Massachusetts GOP to try to censure the Governor. Baker was eligible to seek a third term in 2022 and was seen as the only Republican who could hold the office. In fact, his opposition to Trump and the fire returned at him by the now former President likely worked in his favor in the Commonwealth. Democrats who wanted to win the office were hoping that Joe Biden would offer Baker a Cabinet post to get him out of office and a reelection effort, but Biden, to the surprise of many, did not choose a single Republican for any notable post.

Of course, if Baker were to win a third term, he would have to win a Republican primary. It looked like he probably could but would have to be put through his paces all the way into September of 2022 to do so. Former State Representative Geoff Diehl was running and had Trump's endorsement. In 2018, as Baker was taking 67 percent to win reelection, Diehl won just 36 percent as the Republican nominee against Senator Elizabeth Warren.

As 2021 was coming to an end, Baker, who had been holding off a decision, announced he would not run for a third term. This greatly pleased Democrats as it looked like the very conservative Diehl would be easy pickings in a general election. Baker's Lt. Governor Karyn Polito, considered slightly more conservative would not run either. In explaining his decision, Baker said he was not scared off by a primary challenge, but had become disillusioned by the influence of Trump in the party and that he wanted to focus on governing over his final two years.

After this announcement, there was some polling showing that the popular Baker could have a path to reelection in a three-way race running as an Independent. Some speculated he could still choose to take the route, but he did not appear to take any steps towards doing so. It is unknown just how seriously his team might have been considering that option all along.

Diehl won the state party endorsement, as even Massachusetts Republican activists had moved to the right and towards Trump. Party establishment figures and supporters had a dash of hope when Chris Doughty, a manufacturing executive (who like Mitt Romney also happens to be Mormon) got into the race. Doughty fits the profile of successful Massachusetts Gubernatorial figures, but the days of those being popular within the state party might be in the past. Polls have shown Diehl maintaining a lead although some recent surveys some a high number of undecided voters. Doughy is pushing the electability angle against his opponent and if there is somehow a big upset this coming Tuesday, the general election could in theory become interesting.

Before Baker made his decision, several Democrats considered not in the top tier of the party announced campaigns to run for Governor. Only after the Governor decided to stay out of the race, did Attorney General Maura Healey get in and become her party's frontrunner. Some other candidates dropped out and only State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz, running as an unabashed progressive remained. In June, after it became clear she could not win the primary, Chang-Diaz also suspended her campaign, though her name will remain on the ballot. If elected in November, Healey will become the first female to be elected Governor of Massachusetts. It is seen as unlikely she could meet the fate that Martha Coakley, her predecessor as Attorney General, had in high-profile general elections.

This Tuesday will also feature primaries for Lt. Governor. The winners, will then run on tickets with the Gubernatorial nominees. The two Republicans have official choices in the race. Diehl is running unofficially with former State Representative Leah Cole Allen while Doughty is supporting Kate Campanale, also a former State Representative. Polls show a huge number of undecided voters and in theory, Diehl could wind up running with Doughty's choice for the job, or vice versa, though I would consider it to be a surprise if Allen is not also chosen along with Diehl as the party's candidates.

Healey does not seem to have endorsedcandidate on her side. The three candidates are Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, who has the party's official endorsement, as well as State Representative Tami Gouvela and State Senator Eric Lesser. Polls also show a lot of undecided voters but the endorsement of the party is likely to help Driscoll win and join Healey on an all-female ticket.

The bottom line is that Diehl is just too far to the right to win a general election in Massachusetts. His position on abortion is just one example of something the Democrats will hone in on. If by some reason, Doughty were to win the nomination, he could at least attempt to run on continuing Baker's policies, but the party would be divided, and after Labor Day, there will not be much time left to find unity. Polls thus far have shown Healey holding a nearly 30 point advantage, over both Republicans,

One of the two would definitely fare better in November than the other, but it is close to impossible to see how Republicans could get any break here to make victory possible, once Governor Baker decided that elective politics was no longer for him.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

10 D (2 Safe, 4 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

7 R  (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

16 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)