Michigan Governor- Race of the Day

65 Days Until Election Day

Michigan Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Michigan Republicans are finding themselves in the odd position of realizing that their standing in this race could be a lot better, but at the same time, it could be even worse. Based on current polling and the lingering surprise that came with Donald Trump's extremely narrow carrying of the state in 2016 over an overconfident opponent, many think this could be a close race. The evidence though and general outlook seems to indicate that it may not be a nail biter.

In 2018, former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer took 52 percent in a three way Democrat primary against political novices and then took 53 percent in the general election. She succeeded a term-limited Republican Governor who once was considered to have a bright political future, but saw his second term marred with such events as the water crisis in Flint. Charges on the matter against former Governor Rick Snyder were recently dismissed. In 2020, Snyder crossed party lines to endorse Joe Biden for President.citing the personal traits of Donald Trump. The incumbent lost the state that year by three points, though it was one of the contests he declared was stolen from him. Challenges in the courts and within the Republican legislature to overturn the result ultimately did not go anywhere.

Governor Whitmer had been considered a Vice Presidential front-runner for Biden, but by the summer of 2020, it was clear that he would instead pick an African-American woman. When she spoke remotely from her state capitol to the party convention that year, a hot mic picked up Whitmer using an expletive and saying something about "Shark Week." 

Before that though, the Governor had been in the national news related to her shut-down orders during the early days of the Covid pandemic, which were more strict than other states, especially those which had been won by Trump or had Republicans in charge of one branch of state government. Mass protests, with some people armed, emerged at the State Capitol and some were particularly incensed by what was seen as double standards by the Governor and her husband in flouting the rules set for others A Detroit rapper praised Whitmer though for her handling of the pandemic and coined the phrase "Big Gretch", though she is not a necessarily large woman.

The situation took a much odder turn later that fall when militia members were charged in a plot to kidnap the Governor from her home and possibly kill her, while violently overthrowing the state government. The infiltration of this group by FBI informants led to many on the right being suspicious to outright dismissive of the charges and the threat. Two defendants were acquitted while a mistrial was declared regarding two others. Late last month, a retrial led to convictions.

Whitmer remains a politically divisive figure in her state but has retained her popularity among Democrats and faced no reelection challenge. In the state, the nominees for Governor pick their Lt. Governor running-mates after the primary. It was clear early on that Whitmer would seek a second term with incumbent Garlin Gilchrist, the first African-American Lt. Governor of Michigan.

A long line of Republicans assembled for the right to take on Whitmer. Democrats and their allies went about trying to challenge the validity of the petitions of some of the GOP candidates, including those considered the more formidable. Primarily, this related to James Craig, the African-American former police chief of Detroit, whom many in the party considered the strongest possible opponent for Whitmer. A wealthy businessman, considered the most moderate of the candidates was also ruled ineligible along with Craig. There was much back and forth in the courts, but ultimately the candidates were ruled unable to be on the ballot. Other Republican candidates were none too displeased to see Craig out of the race, and was very bitter about the experience and tried to run as a write-in, though that effort went nowhere for the August 2 primary. Now, Craig is refusing to support the Republican nominee, saying that her position on abortion goes too far, but weirdly enough says he would support the candidate of the U.S. Taxpayers Party first, who is even further to the right.

Those that remained in the Michigan GOP field after the ballot purging were considered lower tier potential opponents for the incumbent and widely seen as very conservative. Several candidates ran as ardent Trump acolytes including Chiropractor Garrent Soldano, and businessman Kevin Rinke, who was hampered by allegations of boorish conduct against women and a discrimination suit in running his car dealerships. This summer, real estate broker Ryan Kelley was arrested by the FBI at his home and charges with entering a restricted area of the Capitol on January 6. This development was seen as a potential boost to Kelley's struggling campaign and possibly a reason that Donald Trump might endorse him. Kelly plead not guilty in court and attached the government for targeting him. Some of his opponents in the primary race expressed support for Kelley on the matter and asked their supporters to help donate to his legal defense.

With all the bad publicity surrounding Michigan Republicans in the race, the candidate seen as potentially the least likely to implode was Tudor Dixon, a telegenic woman who started her Gubernatorial campaign as a long-shot, having mostly been known as a conservative commentator on online programs and minor league cable news networks. The wealthy DeVos Family, long a part of Michigan's GOP establishment, decided to back Dixon financially, which other candidates tried to use against her. Despite the drama that existed after January 6 between Trump and his Secretary of Education Besty DeVos, the former President followed her request to endorse Dixon. I wonder how much that decision might be owed to the former President liking the way the candidate looks on television.

The 45 year old Dixon, who is also a breast cancer survivor, immediately became a front-runner in the primary field. Trump appeared on her behalf and while she had earlier on said that he was the legitimate winner of Michigan in 2020, she chose her words more carefully during national television appearances leading up to the primary, which may not have pleased the former President too much and gave an opening for her opponents to declare they were the ones most worthy of MAGA support. Dixon continued to focus on Whitmer more than her Republican opponents, and blamed the Governor for the nursing home death of her grandmother during the Covid shutdowns. Any loss of a relative is very sad, but it is not exactly unheard for someone in their 40s (or younger) to have a grandparent pass away in a nursing home.

On Primary Day, Dixon won with 41 percent, easily beating out Rinke who had 22. Soldano and Kelley trailed with 18 and 15 respectively. Several names were bandied about for whom the nominee could pick as a running-mate, with the thought being she would pick someone with political experience and seen as more moderate. There was some surprise when she picked former State Representative Shane Hernandez, who had lost a 2020 Congressional primary. At age 40. he is even younger than Dixon, though she perhaps looks younger. Some in the party threatened to support someone else at the official state nominating convention. Trump released a statement saying he had looked into Hernandez and found him to be acceptable, which pretty much an end to any serious attempt at revolt.

Since the primary, Dixon is said to not be actively campaigning as much. Many in the Republican Party are under the impression that Whitmer is highly vulnerable and point to a recent GOP poll showing a close 49-45 spread. Other polls have given the incumbent a larger lead and just slightly north of 50 percent of the vote.

All things considered this should be a competitive race, but Michigan Republicans have had quite an interesting year and are seen as having moved very far to the right and tied closely to Trump. Earlier in the spring, state party delegates gave their endorsement, which wound  up tantamount to the nomination to controversial election deniers for the offices of Secretary of State and Attorney General, as they take on Democrat incumbents. Being on this relatively compact ticket with them does not give Dixon much of a way to distance herself. One has to realize though that if another one of the remaining Republican candidates won the nomination, it would be an even bigger pending disaster for the party in Michigan.

Dixon might try to pivot to issues like inflation and crime after having spent a large part of the primary campaign in a large field talking about drag shows and sex education in schools. Democrats feel they have the most fertile political ground though by focusing on the issue of abortion. In Michigan, pro-choice advocates are trying to get a referendum question placed on the November ballot which they believe will increase turnout on the issue. There is a 91 year old Michigan statute that bans nearly all abortion which is currently being held up in the courts, but some fear could take effect. Michigan has a long history of Pro-Life activism, but outlawing abortion in a state like that would be considered a much more consequential event than a ban in a Deep South state or a very conservative state elsewhere.

The Republican nominee has continued to insist that she does not support a rape exception for abortion. Whatever one feels about the validity of the argument, that position will make it much tougher to win a statewide election. When I was first becoming politically aware and came about my own staunch Pro-Life views, most in the party believed there should be an exception for rape. Now, it seems like more and more Republican candidates believe that to not be "100 percent Pro-Life" is to not be Pro-Life at all. It seems like they are hurting the cause by being such absolutists on the issue of pregnancies that are the result of rape.

Dixon has said "a life is a life" and that she believes that rape victims should by law carry the child to term because it will be "healing" to them "through the baby." That might be a noble concept in theory but I cannot see how that is also not a pretty damaging thing to say politically. A decade or so ago, statements about abortion and rape by male candidates like Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, who would go on to lose because of the backlash against those views, were looked on with disdain by many Pro-Life Republicans, for the political fallout they caused, if nothing else. In this era of "own the libs", there is a very different outlook. Unless something dramatic changes in the Tudor Dixon campaign, I will surprised if she comes within 8 points in November.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

11 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

7 R  (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

17 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)