Nebraska Governor- Race of the Day

61 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska Governor

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

Eight years ago at this time, I wrote that GOP nominee Pete Ricketts was likely to be elected Governor of Nebraska, and before too long, could win a World Series ring as well. Indeed, Ricketts won the election and just two years later, the Chicago Cubs, whom Ricketts co-owns along with his siblings, won the World Series for the first time in 106 years. Now, Ricketts is term-limited and will be returning to the private sector, but hopefully it will not be all that much longer before the Cubs win another World Series.

It seems unlike that Nebraska will elect a Democrat to the Senate anytime soon, but this year, they are competing heavily in two out of three of the state's Congressional Districts. When it comes to the Governorship or other state offices, it's a far different story. No Democrat has won since the then incumbent was reelected in 1994, and the contests have not been all that close.There is a unique legislative system in Nebraska, where there is only one legislative chamber, the State Senate, and its members are technically elected as non-partisan officials. Unofficially though, the State Senate is Republican and over the past eight years, Ricketts has had his share of clashes with them.

Nine Republicans lined up to seek the Governorship this year, and the May primary was won by someone other than the candidate who had been endorsed by Donald Trump. Had that candidate won, this general election might be closer than it will turn out being.

Cattle rancher and businessman Charles Herbster had run briefly for Governor in 2014 and would later become an agriculture advisor to Trump. He entered the 2022 primary as a Trump loyalist and received the endorsement of the former President. Herbster, known for campaigning in a cowboy hat and vest received a lot of pushback from others within the Republican Party who did not want him to be Governor, including the incumbent Ricketts and former Governor Dave Heineman. For a time, the former Governor left open the possibility of entering the race, where he would have been considered the frontrunner, but he did not run.

Governor Ricketts broke with Trump and offered his backing to Jim Pillen, a veterinarian and family farmer, who served on the State Board of Regents. Back in the '70s, Pillen was a star football player for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Another leading candidate wound up being State Senator Brett Lindstrom. Two years before being elected to the unicameral legislature, Lindstrom had unsuccessfully challenged a GOP incumbent for a House seat in a 2012 primary.

Nebraska has a system where the Gubernatorial nominees pick their running-mate, but it also seems like most of the candidates announce their choices before the primary. Herbster had picked former State Senator Theresa Thibodeau, but the two apparently had some kind of falling out, and the candidate for Lt. Governor left the ticket to run herself for the top office. Herbster did not seem to pick anyone to replace her, even as all the other leading Gubernatorial candidates announced their choices. Pillen said he would pick former U.S. Attorney Joe Kelly as his number two.

More problems mounted for the widowed Herbster when he was accused of unwanted sexual advances by several women, including a 26 year old State Senator. Even though there were witnesses to several groping instances, the candidate denied the allegations and sued the young State Senator for defamation. A countersuit by her was also field and the matter is still pending in the courts. Trump, who had been accused of groping by several women, after he won the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination, is said to have urged Herbster to fight back hard against his accusers.

It appears possible that Herbster would have won the primary without these allegations of misconduct, but they apparently troubled enough voters to get him defeated. Going into primary night, it looked like the contest could go in any of three ways, but Pillen won 34-30 over Herbster. Lindstrom, considered the most moderate of the candidates (though a conservative Republican by the standard of many states) finished in third place with 26 percent. Thibodeau, the only major female candidate lagged behind at 6 percent.

By nominating Pillen, Republicans chose a candidate who was considered very conservative, but did not have the personal baggage of Herbster, which could have complicated things for the party in the general election. Governor Ricketts,who stressed he had a strong Trump ally, was successful in seeing his pick defeat that backed by the former President. The outgoing Governor definitely seemed to have some sort of personal animus as it related to Herbster.

Democrats did not have much of a primary. Their 2018 nominee, former State Senator Bob Krist, had entered the race but then withdrew. Before being nominated as a Democrat, he had been a moderate Republican, and he returned to those roots by endorsing Lindstrom's GOP Gubernatorial candidacy. A former Democrat Congressman had also endorsed Lindstrom for the Republican nomination (and a Democrat in that primary as well.) Republicans used this against the candidate who finished third, but the thinking was likely that whomever won the Republican primary was going to become Governor. The former Congressman died shortly before this year's primary and it seems like Krist might have chosen to not get involved in the general election.

The winner of the primary this year for Democrats with 87 percent over an unknown opponent is State Senator Carol Blood. Her pick for Lt. Governor is former State Senator Al Davis. The rancher was a registered Republican when he served in the non-partisan chamber. The party did not bother to nominate candidates for any other state office this year. Some say that Blood is credible and that there is a desire for "New Blood" in Lincoln. There are all sorts of puns that can be used in regards to a politician with the name Blood, but I will hold off on getting into them. As for the nominee for Lt. Governor on the Democrats' side, it is unlikely he will be able to follow the advice of the other Al Davis and "just win, baby."

 

Nebraska remains a conservative state and there is little reason to think that Pillen, despite his having to win a competitive primary, is not the overwhelming favorite. He appears to be an acceptable alternative to people in both wings of the party who had wanted a different nominee. 

 

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

12 D (2 Safe, 6 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

  8 R  (3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

18 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

16 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)