South Carolina Governor- Race of the Day

35 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Palmetto State politics have definitely been interesting this year.and the current Senate general election qualifies as such. The Gubernatorial race is probably not that at interesting, at least not anymore, and less so than it could have been.

 

Republican Henry McMaster, a Donald Trump favorite is unable to seek a third full term. After a very long political career of ups and downs, he had been elevated to the Governorship when Trump chose then Governor Nikki Haley for the somewhat irrelevant post of Ambassador to the UN. He has since said he did so merely to reward McMaster with the Governorship. The 2024 Republican Presidential primary clearly shows that voters there sided with Trump over Haley in their race against each other.

 

A large field of Republicans emerged for the right to become the next Governor. A primary was held in early June with a runoff occurring later in the month. Some candidates would not stick around until the end and in the months leading up to the primary, there was some real doubt about who the top two candidates might be. Pamela Evette, the Lt. Governor, was perhaps not all that well-known and was not a South Carolina native. She had the support of Governor McMaster though and in late May received the "complete and total" endorsement of Trump. That would seem to have put her in very good standing to become the Governor.

 

There were still other contenders though including Rom Reddy, a wealthy businessman and political outsider who was born in India (as were the parents of former Governor Haley.) Two sitting Members of Congress ran as did the son of of their colleagues. Seventy-two year old Ralph Norman was a hardline conservative favorite of many but it was not forgotten that he was perhaps the only prominent South Carolina Republican in the state to have endorsed Haley in her Presidential campaign. Needless to say, felt the need to return the favor in this race. Also running, and holding a narrow lead in many early polls was Congresswoman Nancy Mace, who first made headlines as the first female cadet at the Citadel. She had failed pretty badly statewide in a 2014 primary challenge to an incumbent U.S. Senator but went on to be elected to the State House and in 2020, four years after Norman, got elected to Congress from the Charleston area, defeating an incumbent Democrat. Her district was about as competitive as there was in South Carolina at the time, but redistricting helped make it more Republican. Mace still had Republican primaries to contend with. She had a very tumultuous relationship with Donald Trump. At times, she was a critic and seemed to be a well-spoken principled advocate of the kind of party that existed before Trump and she won a primary in which he opposed her. Then, Mace started drifting more towards MAGA on just about everything and especially cultural matters (with the exception of the Epstein files which Trump could never forgive. Mace has had a pretty turbulent personal life during her time in Congress regarding personal relationships and claims of being the victim of schemes of her then fiancee and all sorts of other allegations. She developed a reputation for being becoming increasingly erratic and many staff members departed her office and some spoke out against her. Mace more and more leaned into conspiracy theories and caustic statements about liberals and Democrats that she posted online. A lot of people have claimed she has some deep seated personal issues and needs medical treatment. In spite of it all, she ran for Governor and looked like a serious contender. Had she been nominated, Republicans might be finding themselves in a very awkward and tenuous position right now. Most recently, Mace has debuted several large colorful tattoos on her arms.

 

Another major contender was Attorney General Alan Wilson, whose adoptive father Joe Wilson, of "You Lie!" fame, has been in Congress since 2001 and is running again. The younger Wilson first became Attorney General after the 2010 election and has won three consecutive reelections. Over the past couple of years, as Mace knew she would be facing him as an opponent for Governor, she accused his office of trying to slow-walk or cover up crimes committed against the Congresswoman by her ex-fiancee and his friends. Wilson has denied this of course. It is all a very complicated matter but there seemed to be some serious bad blood between the two Gubernatorial candidates. Mace also went very strongly against Evette in this race as well. Then again, she has been going after virtually everyone on Twitter/X for many months now.

 

One would expect Trump's endorsement of Evette to be a game changer. It seems like he did so as a favor to McMaster more than anything else. Another angle existed though as well. In South Carolina, Gubernatorial nominees now pick their Lt. Governor runningmates themselves instead of leaving it up to the voters. Sometimes though, candidates announce their choices ahead of the primary. For example, Norman picked former State Representative Adam Morgan, a songwriter, and Wilson picked State Senator Mike Reichenbach, an African-American car dealership owner, who like Wilson is also adopted. In endorsing Evette, Trump seemed to encourage her to select attorney Henry McMaster Jr. who had never run for office, but who of course happened to be the son of the Governor. It might very well be the case this was supposed to be a quid pro quo for Evette to choose him, in order to have her boss the Governor and father of the would be political nepo-baby, deliver the Trump endorsement. Evette never committed publicly to this though and just before the primary, McMaster Jr. took his name out of consideration. One can surmise all the stuff happening on the Republican side away from the public eye.

 
Primary day came and Evette, the McMaster and Trump endorsed candidate only took 29 percent, which is pretty stunning. Wilson, who was the favorite of many conservatives, was second with 26 percent and advanced to the runoff. Norman received 17 percent, Reddy 14 percent, and Mace pretty much fizzled out and only took 12 percent, last among active candidates. We will hear some of these names again as later in the summer, when a Republican Senator and recent nominee suddenly passed away, some of these candidates were involved in that special primary. 

 

After the primary, Norman endorsed Wilson and so did Mace, despite all the horrible things she had said about him previously. She apparently disliked Evette even more. Wilson was pretty circumspect publicly about receiving the Mace endorsement but talked up his support from Norman, the third place candidate. (Reddy apparently stayed out of the runoff fray.) It looked like it was very likely that Wilson would defeat Evette, even without the Trump endorsement. So what happened next? Trump posted a dual endorsement of both Evette and now Wilson. Yes, he endorsed both candidates in a two person race. That way, he would be able to claim victory, as he stated he only wanted to help Evette get into the runoff when he gave her his sole endorsement. Now, with the political writing clearly on the wall, he screwed her over politically in a major way. It would have been fascinating to hear what was being said at her campaign offices. Wilson cruised to the nomination with 69 percent of the runoff vote.

 

Democrats might have had a chance in this race against someone as controversial as Mace or perhaps even against Norman, since so many in the party had soured on him also. Against Wilson however, it is a much tougher sled. The nominee for Democrats is 41 year old State Representative Jermaine Johnson, the first African-American Gubernatorial nominee, at least since Reconstruction, in South Carolina history. Johnson is a former professional basketball player who holds a doctorate in business administration. He is running with 38 year old Sam Skardon, a "clean energy" executive who has been active in the party and chaired it in Charleston County. While Democrats seem to have a credible ticket, with a narrative of generational change, one has to also question if someone else would maybe would have been a stronger contender to win the votes of disaffected white voters. In the primary, which is dominated by African-Americans (and will definitely be a theme in 2028's first in the nation Presidential contest for Democrats) Johnson took 60 percent, definitely more than enough to avoid a runoff.  At one point in the campaign, Johnson was facing rumors he was about to quit the race due to fundraising concerns. Businessman Billy Webster, a good deal older than Johnson, and white, took 30 percent. In this race, the former Chief of now long ago Governor Richard Riley, had been endorsed by Bill Clinton, but that likely means little to most Democrats these days. An another white candidate, a trial lawyer named Mullins McLeod took 11 percent.

 

I think a case could be made that the more moderate Webster would have run a few points better against Wilson than Johnson will, but it is all sort of irrelevant in a way. Democrats will hope for a large turnout of African-Americans in the midterm, especially those upset about all the potential redistricting that was avoided this cycle, but which probably will be signed into law by the next Republican Governor, that would seek to eliminate the one seat in the Congressional delegation held by an African-American Democrat. I cannot find much polling for this race, but an internal poll for Democrats shows a competitive race.

 

The reality though is that South Carolina is still a very Republican state, Johnson is probably too far to the left to win statewide, and Wilson has a demonstrated record of statewide political success. Imagine though if Nancy Mace had stuck with Trump on the Epstein Files and got his sole endorsement. This might be a very different race.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

11 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

19 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)