Michigan Governor- Race of the Day

 65 Days Until Election Day

 

Michigan Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

The epicenter of action in the 2026 midterms may be in Michigan. There are top battleground races for teh U.S. Senate and U.S. House, and also an open race for Governor. All of this is in a state that Donald Trump has twice carried, but Democrats have tended to win statewide elections for a while. In order to win the White House again, the party will most certainly need to win Michigan, and it would be at least damaging psychologically if they lost ground this year in a midterm that is supposed to be very bad for Republicans.

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After serving two terms as Governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is not eligible to seek a third. Four years ago, Republicans thought they had a chance to beat her, even with a relatively weak nominee, but the incumbent managed to win by double digits. Whitmer, who was also once hyped as a top-tier future Presidential contender for her party has since fallen off, hampered in part by an Oval Office visit in which she hid her face under file folders, as Trump praised her. There were some other politically cringe-worthy moments also and I do not expect her to run. 

 

Another woman though has been nominated by Democrats for Governor and if she wins, will be third straight female of that party to hold the office going back to the 2002 election. There was a Republican male for eight years in between. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is completing two terms as Michigan's Secretary of State, after having lost her first bid eight years previous in 2010. All of those general elections were against women candidates. Benson received special notice in her job during and after the disputed 2022 elections in Michigan. She was seen as a potential candidate for U.S. Senate, but did not run in 2024, seemingly preferring to prepare to run for Governor.

 

Michigan Democrats seemed to look at her as next in line for that job. even amid speculation regarding Pete Buttigieg, the Biden Transportation Secretary and former Presidential candidate who had moved from Indiana to Michigan, likely in pursuit of better political pastures. The current Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist, who is African-American, did announce a run for Governor, and received some support from the party's left, but failing to catch on, decided to run instead for the Secretary of State post that Benson is laving behind. Her one challenger was Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, who ran as a more moderate Democrat, while also receiving some support from organized labor. Moderation is not en vogue currently within the party though and Benson absolutely cruised to the finish line with 83 percent.

 

The Republican field was larger and even though Donald Trump and national Republicans had endorsed a front-runner, the race did wind up being fairly competitive. The 2022 nominee Tudor Dixon chose not to run again and several candidates in the field did wind up withdrawing before the early August primary. They included former Attorney General Mike Cox who had finished third in the 2010 Republican primary for Governor, former State House Speaker Tom Leonard, who tried to run for Governor after having lost two previous bids for Attorney General, and State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt who tried to position himself as the most conservative candidate. Remaining on the ballot, Cox still took 13 percent and Nesbitt almost two percent.

 

Congressman John James, who had the Trump endorsement, defeated wealthy businessman Perry Johnson 50-35, which to me does not exactly sound like a strong showing. James, who is among two African-American U.S. House Members currently nominated for Governor in big states and looking to make Republican history, has had a busy political life in Michigan over recent years. The West Point graduate, who served with the Army in Iraq, joined his family's business and then began running for office. In 2018, at age 37, James won a competitive Republican primary for U.S. Senate and then took a somewhat solid 46 percent against an incumbent Democrat in a year that was believed to be bad for that party. The Trump Administration considered placing James in various positions, but he ran for Senate again in 2020 against the other sitting Democrat in the state, and this time lost by a narrower 50-48 margin. The candidate then looked somewhat downward and in 2022 captured an open U.S. House seat by one point. In a 2024 rematch against the same opponent, James won 51-45. After four straight competitive federal races, most of them very tight, James might have chosen to try to hold on to his district as an incumbent and gain seniority in the House, but the itch to run statewide was still there and he ran for Governor this time.

 

Perry Johnson is 33 years older than John James and comes across as a right-wing gadfly. He had a lengthy career in the "quality control" field and wrote several books on the topic. He ran for the Republican Gubernatorial nomination in 2022 and was spending a lot of personal money on that effort until he was one of five Republicans who would be disqualified from the ballot over petition signature controversies. Heading into 2024, Perry threw his checkbook towards an extremely quixotic Presidential bid. He gave some frantic speeches at candidate cattle calls that were broadcast on C-SPAN but before 2023 was up, he ended his bid and endorsed Trump. The former President praised Johnson and said his endorsement was a "great honor."

 

I did not think Johnson had much of a chance when he announced another Gubernatorial bid for 2026 at the age of 78 but he apparently spent a lot of money to blanket the airwaves with television ads. Trump had endorsed James late in the game, after it had long been clear that the White House and Republican leader around the country preferred the candidate, but his candidacy did seem to struggle a bit. There were even rumors that Trump wanted James to try to stay in Congress to protect his seat, which means that they might have been willing to give up any hope of winning the Governorship under a Johnson candidacy. It also could be that some Republican primary voters are just reluctant to embrace a black candidate for Governor. This was also seen to some extent this year in the Florida primary. Nonetheless, James won by 15 points. 

 

After the Michigan primary, the Gubernatorial nominees select their runningmates for Lt. Governor. The Republican James is running with State Representative Jay DeBoyer, who has a lot of experience in state government, but perhaps does not bring a lot of new voters to the fold. Benson selected a female running mate in State Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks. Since both candidates picked candidates of their same gender who are seen as clearly established at the ideological base points of their party, it seems like both may not have exactly done all they could to balance their tickets.

 

While the general election will also have candidates from the Green, Libertarian, and U.S. Taxpayers' parties, the most significant development on that front is that Mike Duggan, who recently finished 12 years as Mayor of Detroit, ended his Independent bid for Governor in May. Duggan, previously a Democrat, had been a non-traditional candidate for Mayor of the state's largest city, especially as a white man, but received praise for his tenure in a difficult job. His run for Governor was a call for centrism and being above partisan labels, the kind of stuff I think there is a market for in this country. While Duggan was polling in the double digits at the early stage, it looked like he would still probably not be able to do any better than third place in November. There were some questions of if he could decide the outcome as a spoiler, although in polls that included him, the presumptive nominee Benson led the presumptive nominee James by a small but consistent margin. Ultimately, Duggan ended his campaign saying he did not want to be such a spoiler. This was seen as a concession to the Democrat Benson, although no formal endorsement was given.

The general election field is set and polls continue to show Benson ahead of James by a few points, although definitely still in a competitive race. The recent U.S. Senate primary in Michigan featured a very divided electorate and a controversial nominee. Benson stayed out of that fracas and did not endorse a candidate but now finds herself in the position of trying to preside in her spot over what could be some hard to find party unity in regards to the Senate race. I will talk about this contest more in the next edition of Race of the Day, but if people in the party are walking about from the Democrats' ticket, that could hurt the party from top to bottom. On the other hand, there is a case to be made that a swing voter in the state deciding to vote for the Republican for Senate could be more inclined to actually vote for the Democrat for Governor in order to split their vote. One thing is for sure though, Republican Gubernatorial nominee John James will be trying to run against Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed as much as he might be trying to run against Jocelyn Benson.

 

While there are clear chisms among Michigan Democrats, which might bring about great regret in November, the signs still point to a Benson win over James, especially in this midterm environment, with such recent headlines as Donald Trump declaring economic war on Canada. Those issues matter to the pocketbooks of voters in Michigan and James is going to find himself in an even tougher position of being associated with Trump. His third statewide loss in eight years is more likely than not.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

11 D (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

 6 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

17 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)